Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Australia's Environmental Predictive Capability

133 views

Published on

Federating world-leading research, data and technical capabilities to create Australia’s National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS).
Community consultation presentation.
3-12 February 2020
Dr Michelle Barker (Facilitator)
(Presentation v5)

Published in: Environment
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Australia's Environmental Predictive Capability

  1. 1. National Environmental Prediction System (NEPS) Community consultations 3 -13 February 2020 Dr Michelle Barker (Facilitator) Federating world-leading research, data and technical capabilities to create Australia’s
  2. 2. Acknowledgement of country We wish to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the land we are meeting on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation We wish to acknowledge and respect their continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of this city and this region. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging.
  3. 3. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
  4. 4. Australia invests in national research infrastructure • NCRIS is an Australian Government funding initiative • NCRIS is a national network of world-class research infrastructure projects • NEPS would be a new national capability alongside NCRIS projects
  5. 5. Developing a plan for a National Environmental Prediction System
  6. 6. • Obtain broad agreement from key stakeholders regarding the scope of a NEPS Expert Panel: - Professor Rob Vertessy (Chair) - Dr Andrea Hinwood - Dr Adam Lewis - Dr Phil McFadden AO - Mr Warwick McDonald - Dr Steve Morton Supported by Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN) NEPS Scoping Study key objectives: • Develop a detailed establishment plan including identification of stakeholder co‐investments and actions necessary to support the development
  7. 7. Consultation participants Feb 2020
  8. 8. Rationale Vision o Networked infrastructure o Allowing integration of environmental observations with predictive modelling o To provide evidence-based advice o To boost our economy through improved environmental risk management Drivers o Increasingly urgent requirements from decision-makers for predictive advice on environmental risks o Maturity of existing infrastructure for environmental assessment o Rapid technical advances in sensors and in data integration, and in research capacity for predictive synthesis
  9. 9. Federating existing research infrastructure capabilities Citizens Research Industry Government Environmental information community v International (RDA, GBIF) v Existing information infrastructure for climate (and other) prediction Academies & research centres NCRIS RI (inc Clouds) GA BoM DoEE ABS DAWR DIIS NEPS
  10. 10. Benefits Users: simplified access to rich cross-domain data on the Australian environment, with greater transparency, reproducibility and reuse. Service providers: greater and more sophisticated use of their digital assets and from improved understanding of priorities for new data capture and enrichment.
  11. 11. Poll: Which of the following describe you? • Provider of environmental observational data • Provider of environmental models and predictions • Provider of environmental decisions • Provider of environmental research infrastructure • User of environmental observational data • User of environmental models and predictions • User of environmental decisions • User of environmental research infrastructure
  12. 12. What does NEPS look like? • Federated research infrastructure • Not a research program or operational policy tool • Goal is to enable good predictive models for any scenario • Supporting collaborative science • Value grows with more researchers, more data, and more models
  13. 13. Elements of an Environmental Prediction System
  14. 14. Federated Entity ~ Synthesis Activity Collaboration across three increasing levels: • Shared conceptual framework and standards • Shared access to standardised data • Shared and interlocking system models ASRIS/ CSIRO
  15. 15. Synthesis centres characteristics include: • Incubator for transformational science • Highly interactive and connected culture • Problem to solutions orientation • Pathway for uptake • Appetite for risk and adaptation • Shared resources and services Source: Rodrigo A, Alberts S, Cranston K, Kingsolver J, Lapp H, et al. (2013) Science Incubators: Synthesis Centers and Their Role in the Research Ecosystem. PLoS Biol 11(1): e1001468. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001468
  16. 16. • Australian Aerobiology Working Group: medical professionals, botanists, climate change modellers etc • Collate and analyse regional pollen count data • Provides data to medical community and allergy suffers
  17. 17. Flagship projects will help to: • Form initial user community • Seed NEPS with valuable data and models • Identify/resolve common challenges • Deliver early benefits and value
  18. 18. Flagships – examples only Australian Fire Risk Modelling Urban Strategic Planning Environmental Impact Assessments
  19. 19. SAFE Urban Strategic Planning NEPS Investment Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability NEPS Flagship Projects (Examples Only) Regulatory Processes Research Processes Australian Fire Risk Modeling
  20. 20. A future without NEPS? • Fragmented, duplicated, ad hoc, inefficient efforts – opportunity and financial costs • Limited opportunities to integrate insights and models across domains • National planning for environmental change curtailed • Major decisions around key issues made without coordinated scientific input
  21. 21. Today’s discussion topics (30 mins each) A. What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities? B. What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? C. What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS?
  22. 22. What you can do Questions and comments? Make a comment or submission NEPS Submissions close 5pm AEDT Monday, 2 March 2020 Email tern@uq.edu.au NEPS online: https://science.uq.edu.au/neps
  23. 23. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
  24. 24. Topic A. What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities?
  25. 25. Poll question: Please rank these potential aspects of NEPS in priority order 1. Establish a Synthesis Centre 2. Coordinate development of a comprehensive set of Australian Essential Environmental Variables 3. Develop/coordinate development of cross-domain spatiotemporal data integration services 4. Coordinate development/interoperability of catalogue services for discovery and use of vocabularies, services, datasets, etc 5. Establish /coordinate ecosystem of modelling environments/expertise to deliver world-class cross-domain environmental models 6. Focus on small number of high-value achievable exemplars for cross-domain integration, modelling, prediction (e.g. specific systems such as the Murray-Darling, national-scale microclimate modelling, biodiversity value of land units, heat islands, ...) 7. Represent Aust interests in international networks/standards bodies
  26. 26. Poll question: Which of the following major classes of information access are most important? 1. Cross-domain access to all primary observations and measurements for any location (point, grid cell or shape) within any time period. 2. Access to best-available modelled representations of key environmental variables at different scales in space and time. 3. Hypercube functionality to retrieve modelled representations of a set of key environmental variables across multiple space-time units at different scales – including grid cells, cadastral units, and other arbitrary divisions 4. Ability to schedule models and analyses using arbitrary combinations of spatiotemporal and non-spatiotemporal assets 5. Provenance, source data, contributing institutions and users for any data asset or data product
  27. 27. What are some research and industry R&D outcomes that will be realised as a result of this new capability, that could not be achieved without these aspects? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Sectors include: • Health • Environment • Mining and resources • Tourism
  28. 28. Today’s agenda Link to slides: tinyurl.com/rfp82p8 Google docs: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Twitter hashtags: #NEPS #NCRIS @NCRISImpact
  29. 29. Topic B. What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? What is needed in the NEPS investment plan, as potential future additions to other organisations to enable the the NEPS vision? • Resources to increase openness/access to existing/future data • Funding to expand or maintain key long-term monitoring efforts • Resources to participate in international networks, etc. • Resources and staffing to coordinate efforts within NEPs to model systems and align with other infrastructures • Resources to build models Which are needed in the short/medium/long-term?
  30. 30. Some challenges Scientific • Near term forecasts can ignore or even create long-term problems • Maintain long term perspective, use long term data, even when we are focused on near- term forecasts • Use model-data cycle to learn the actual scaling structures of the systems Social • Failed forecasts breed scepticism about modelling and predictions • People are bad at thinking probabilistically • Adopt language of the military? E.g., threat levels, scenarios, consequences of actions • Incorporate users in integrated learning communities when developing forecasts. “When you incorporate users into the decision, they don’t blame you when surprises happen.”
  31. 31. Poll question: What are major barriers to establish/maintain a NEPS capability? • cultural divide (eg between govt/industry/research or across research disciplines) • competency (in modelling, data management etc) • commitment (from govt to create and sustain) • communications (with key stakeholders) • the concept (is this supported) Note: all five are needed to maintain successful collaboration
  32. 32. What new data sources, analytic methods or tools that are potential game changers for environmental management could arrive in the next five years? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz
  33. 33. Topic C. What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS? Examples • Established data standards • Existing datasets (including consideration of their FAIRness, openness, standards- compliance, etc.) • Environmental models (algorithms or services) • Representation of Australian research needs in international standards bodies • Interfaces for accessing international environmental datasets for use in Australia • Virtual laboratories • Storage/compute facilities • Communications channels • Use cases for environmental prediction
  34. 34. If you could access funding to participate in NEPS, what would you invest in? Would you rank this investment as: - Urgent - Nice to have - Wish list
  35. 35. What are some research and industry R&D outcomes that will be realised as a result of this new capability, that could not be achieved without these aspects? Add comments to google doc: tinyurl.com/t2fexwz Sectors include: • Health • Environment • Mining and resources • Tourism
  36. 36. Poll question: What will be some other outcomes if Australia does not develop a NEPS capability?
  37. 37. Summation •Topic A: What are the key aspects that need to be included in NEPS and which of these are the priorities? •Topic B: What additional resources or approaches are needed to enable NEPS? •Topic C: What could you or your organisation contribute in the context of NEPS?
  38. 38. What you can do Make a comment or submission NEPS Submissions close 5pm AEDT Monday, 2 March 2020 Email tern@uq.edu.au NEPS online: https://science.uq.edu.au/neps
  39. 39. SAFE – Shared Analytic Framework for the Environment
  40. 40. Parallel and separate processes ASCERTAIN factors ACQUIRE information ASSESS and decide ASSURE monitoring ADAPT Management ADJUST Values REVIEW Drivers REFINE Models SPRAT TERN BOM SAFE AURIN Regulatory Processes Research Processes
  41. 41. Digital Twin of Australian Environment Science-Policy Interface NEPS Investment Unifying effort for environmental prediction ASCERTAIN factors ACQUIRE information ASSESS and decide ASSURE monitoring ADAPT Management ADJUST Values REVIEW Drivers REFINE Models Regulatory Processes Research Processes Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability
  42. 42. SAFE Urban Strategic Planning NEPS Investment Conceptual Framework Federated Data Interoperable Models Provenance & Traceability NEPS Flagship Projects (Examples Only) Regulatory Processes Research Processes Australian Fire Risk Modeling

×