The document summarizes the current political situation in Hong Kong regarding electoral reform. It states that the proposed 2017 Chief Executive election reform is expected to fail to pass as it lacks the necessary votes. This disagreement between Hong Kong and Beijing leaves the future of political reform uncertain and could prolong political instability and protests in Hong Kong. It also discusses the positions of the pan-democratic camp, pro-establishment camp, and Beijing's central government on the issue. The chairman expresses concern that passing the reform bill in its current form would not resolve underlying issues and could further dissatisfaction in Hong Kong.

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香港民主促進會主席龍家麟
通過視頻會議在
加拿大國會下議院外交事務常設委員會就
「香港的局勢」的發言稿
（渥太華時間2017年5月7日早上11.00時到下午1.00時）

• 謝謝您邀請香港民主促進會。作為加拿大 Wilfrid Laurier University
的畢業生，本人很榮幸向加拿大國會講述香港最新情況。
香港政局現時沒有好消息可報告
• 建議中的「2017行政長官選舉」改革普遍預期失敗。該法案相信不可能得
到所需要的三分之二票數通過。
• 香港和北京無法達成協議是一件不幸的事情。目前還我們不清楚要等待未
來有幾多年才可能重啟普選改革、從而實現「基本法」的承諾。
• 這分歧對香港是沒有好處們。其後果是 :
1）一直困擾香港超過30年的政治不穩氣氛將會延續和不能獲得解決；
2）「佔據中還」或種種街頭抗爭將會延續；
3）企業對香港的信心將會下降 。
• 這是對香港，中國和在香港的國際利益一個不利的發展。最壞的情況甚至
是「香港終結」劇本的開始。
• 對一個「西方頭腦」而言，泛民主派的要求是相當簡單而且易於解釋的。
他們所要求的是在提名和選舉過程中沒有不合理限制的真正的普選。特別
關注的是提名過程沒有不合理的甄別。現時的建議並不達到這種期望。政
府的建議是在「選舉進程」中有一大步的前進，但在「提名程序」就有一
大步的倒退。
• 在這建議的安排之下、同情民主的候選人將沒有可能再參加電視辯論。而
且一旦通過，相信將來有可能修改的機會是會十分之微。
• 然而泛民主派，並不是很善於溝通和表達他們反對的理據。宣傳推倒
8.31（8月31日）全國人民代表大會常委員會的決定、是被認定為惡毒攻
擊和反對中國對香港行使的主權。

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• 泛民主派也在反駁理據之中、從來不考慮北京對「國家安全問題」
的顧慮也是錯誤的做法。
北京中央政府的冀望
• 我的評估是北京是以一種曖昧的方式去表達希望行政長官選舉議案通過的
誠意。但北京不會放棄以人大常委會「831決定」為框架的 「國家安全
問題」考慮的。
• 從 2012年行政長官選舉的經驗（由將成為「提名委員會」的「選舉委員
會」選出行政長官)，在北京保守勢力認為，行政長官候選人一旦被提名
便無法控制、即使在2012年北京政府也沒有這樣的能力。所以，目前「一
人一票選特首」的建議經已是一個很大的進步、香港人是理應歡迎的。
• 這種想法導致一個結論，就是讓「獲批准的行政長官候選人」參加有點像
伊朗總統選舉的「普選」、經已是中央政府現在願意承擔的最大風險 。
建制派希望通過法案的戰略
• 建制派是準備影響甚至扭曲「袋住先」的方案公共輿論、目前的策略是試
圖取得需要通過「2017年行政長官選舉條例草案」四五個泛民主派立法會
議員的支持票。
• 試圖扭曲輿論這種方法一個不可能完成的任務。新聞界已正在出版多份更
誠實民意調查。
• 在與外國領事人員在港的“私人”會面期間，高级政改官員也對通過法案
表示悲觀。
• 如果目前形式的條例草案，在過一票之緣獲得通過，也是沒有任何好結果
的。香港在七月仍將是心情惡劣。大約有40％的人口、特別是教育良好的
年輕一代仍然感到權利被剝奪和被出賣。這就是為什麼“佔領中環”將會
以各種形式延續的主要原因。
加拿大政府對事情的影響
• 不幸的是，加拿大政府是不能幫助我們的。中國政府對任何外國政府公開
的批評都視為「外國壞勢力」影響和干涉中國的內部事務。這種“干預”
可能引發對行政長官候選人提名過程更嚴格的限制。

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• 始時始刻、唯一的答案是由香港自己與北京達成協議、例如由北京政府允
許「人大8.31決定之下的真普選」的實質建議、並由各方建立廣泛的社會
共識。這相信這是能解決困局、和使香港在六月之後還是繼續是一個「能
夠管理的地方」的唯一途徑。
• 其中一種可能性是讓120名（10％）提名委員會成員、以及至少二十名立
法會議員共同提名行政長官選舉候選人。而得到「聯合提名的二到三名候
選人」將由提名委員會以過半數通過或否決整個名單。但這類的提議並沒
有被任何一方積極地探索。
黯淡局勢下也有一些樂觀
• 過去駐香港的外交人員曾經對我說，加拿大駐北京大使館有時會幫助中國
政府解釋美國政府真正想對他們講什麼。我想這都是因為加拿大和中國關
係友好、所以願意幫助解釋美國和中國之間的微妙語言或文化差異、而且
從中協助中國政府去解決問題。我想這些事情發生和當事人所說的話絕不
會透露給「南華早報」。
• 一名美國高級外交官在香港民主促進會午餐會演講話時也說過:“...如果
戈爾巴喬夫有一小片香港，前蘇聯的改革開放也可能取得更大的成功。”
• 在香港的最新情況是、如果北京願意考慮接受多一點點風險、和泛民主派
達成一個解決方案仍然是有可能的。方法是將目前的“一人一票”的建議
改為「人大8.31決定之下的真普選」。如能達到這共式，在2015年7月香
港將會開始走上一個很大不同的開始和結果、而且這改變對中國的改革開
放之前路也會有良好的影響、而且在不久之將來會見到成果。

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Speaking Notes of Alan Ka-lun LUNG
Chairman, Hong Kong Democratic Foundation at
Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Commons of Canada on
"The Situation in Hong Kong"
(Via Video Conference, Thursday 7 May 2017 at 11.00 - 13.00 Ottawa Time)
• Thank you for inviting the Hong Kong Democratic Foundation. As a Graduate
of Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada, I am pleased to update the Standing
Committee on the latest situation in Hong Kong.
Current situation -- no good news to report
• The proposed 2017 CE Election Reform is widely expected to fail. The Bill is
unlikely to get the two-third majority needed.
• It is unfortunate that Hong Kong and Beijing cannot come to an agreement. And
it is unclear how long we have to wait before future reform for Universal
Suffrage -- a commitment in the Basic Law -- could restart.
• This disagreement is not good for Hong Kong. The consequence is: 1) The
political uncertainty that has been troubling Hong Kong for more than 30 years
will remain unresolved; 2) Occupy Central and/or street protest in one form or
another will continue; 3) Business confidence in Hong Kong will drop.
• This is not a good outcome for Hong Kong, for China and for international
interest in Hong Kong. The worst case scenario is a script for the beginning of
the end of Hong Kong.
What the Pan-Democrats want
• The Pan-Democrats' demands are fairly straight forward and easy to explain to a
Western mind -- "Genuine Universal Suffrage" with no unreasonable
restrictions on the nomination and election process -- with a particular focus on
"No unreasonable screening" on the nomination process. What's being offered
falls short of this expectation. The Government's proposal is a big-step-forward
on the election process but a big-step-backward on the nomination process.
• There'll be no TV debate for the Pan-Democrats this time. It is widely expected
that once passed, there will be little room for reform in future.
• The Pan-Democrats however, were not very good at communicating their
objection -- advocating a total rejection of the 8.31 (August 31st) decisions of
the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC-SC) is

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perceived as venomous attack and rejection of China's sovereignty over Hong
Kong.
• The Pan-Democrats also made the mistake of not taking the "National Security
Concerns" of Beijing into consideration in their counter-argument.
What the Central Government in Beijing wants
• My assessment is Beijing "genuinely" -- but in an ambiguous way -- wants
the CE Election Proposal to pass. But Beijing will NOT give up its "National
Security Concern" as framed by the "8.31 NPC-SC Decisions".
• From the experience of the 2012 CE Election (by an Election Committee that
will become the Nomination Committee), conservative forces in Beijing also felt
that the CE Candidates, once nominated cannot be controlled -- not even by
Beijing. So the current "One-Person-One-Vote" proposal is indeed a big-step-
forward already and ought to be welcomed by Hong Kong with open arms.
• Such thinking leads to a conclusion that allowing "Approved Candidates" to
run in a "Universal Suffrage" -- somewhat like the Iranian Presidential
Election System -- is the maximum risk the Central Government is willing to
take for now.
Strategy used by the Pro-establishment camp to get the Bill passed
• The Pro-establishment camp is prepared to influence or even twist public
opinion to "Pocket" the proposal ("Pocket-it-first"). The current strategy is to try
to "steal" four or five votes needed to pass the 2017 CE Election Bill in its
current form.
• Trying to twist public opinion this way is an impossible task. The free press in
Hong Kong is already publishing public opinion polls that have more
intellectual honesty.
• In "private" meetings with foreign consul staff in Hong Kong, constitutional
reform officials also expressed pessimism in getting the bill passed.
• If the Bill is passed in the current form by a margin of one vote, the result is not
any better -- Hong Kong will still be in a very bad mood in July. Approximately
40 percent of the population1
-- particularly the more educated younger
generation will still feel disenfranchised and betrayed. This is why "Occupy
Central" will keep coming back in one form or another.
1
Now TV Rolling Poll (28 April 2015): 1) Overall: "Support" 47%/"Against" 38%/"No Opinion" 16%; 2) Amongst the
18‐29 Age Group: "Support" 28%/"Against" 65%/"No Opinion": 9%; 3) "55% Against" amongst university educated
or above; 4) "55% Support" amongst the secondary or primary school educated.

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Influence of the Canadian Government
• Unfortunately, the Canadian Government can't help us -- any open criticism of
the Chinese Government will be regarded as "bad foreign influence" meddling
in the internal affairs of China. Such "meddling" could trigger even tighter
restrictions on the CE candidates nomination process.
• At this moment -- the only answer is for Hong Kong to come to an agreement
on its own with Beijing, such as building wide community consensus on a
proposal of allowing "Genuine Universal Suffrage" under the "8.31 NPC-
SC Decisions". This is probably the only way to make Hong Kong
governable.
• One possibility is allowing "Joint Nomination" of the 2-3 Candidates by at least
120 (10%) Nomination Committee Members and at least 20 Legislative Council
Members" and "Exit" (becoming a CE Election Candidate) through "50%
Approval" of the entire list of 2-3 candidates by the Nomination Committee2
.
But such proposals are not being explored by either side.
An optimistic note -- after painting a gloomy picture
• I was told by a Canadian diplomat once posted in Hong Kong that the Canadian
Embassy in Beijing sometimes helps the Chinese Government interpret what
that US Government said to them. I imagine this happened because Canada is
friendly with China -- and it is useful to the Chinese Government to get help on
interpreting the subtle language or cultural difference between the American
and the Chinese. I imagine these things happen behind closed doors and what
was said would never be disclosed to the South China Morning Post.
• A senior US diplomat who spoke at one of the Hong Kong Democratic
Foundation Speaker Luncheons also told us -- "… if Mikhail Gorbachev had a
little piece of Hong Kong, the Reform and Opening of the Soviet Union could
have been more successful".
• On the situation in Hong Kong -- a solution is still possible if Beijing is willing
to consider taking a little bit more risk and turning the current "One-person-
one-vote" proposal into "Genuine Universal Suffrage that conforms to the 8.31
NPC-SC Decisions". The outcome could be very different for Hong Kong in
July 2015 and for China's Reform and Opening Journey just a little bit
down the road.
2
See link to the detailed proposal:
http://www.hkdf.org/download/response_to_seize%20the_opportunity_jan_2015.pdf