GSM 3G Market Update 161209

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The Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) has published its latest GSM/3G Market Update on December 16, 2009. The world’s first LTE networks are now launched in Sweden and Norway, the number of operators committed to LTE deployments has doubled in 8 months, 66 operators have committed to HSPA+ deployments with 37 networks now launched, and the number of commercial HSPA networks has more than tripled in 3 years. HSUPA is now commercially launched in 50 countries by almost 100 operators. The number of HSPA user devices is rapidly growing, reaching 1,875 from approaching 200 suppliers. All the details and more are here in this presentation, plus more including spectrum digital dividend, evolution to iMT-Advanced, etc. For latest news and updates see www.gsacom.com

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GSM 3G Market Update 161209

  1. 1. GSA Secretariat Tel +44 1279 439 667 info@gsacom.com GSM/3G MARKET UPDATE December 16, 2009 Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4 Follow GSA on Twitter www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=2313721 www.twitter.com/gsacom www.youtube.com/user/GSAMOBILESUPPLIERS Terms of Use Copyright GSA 2009. All rights reserved. GSA makes considerable effort to ensure that the content is accurate; however, such content is provided without warranty in currentness, completeness or correctness. Reproduction of this material for non-commercial use is allowed if the source is stated. For other use please contact the GSA Secretariat via email to info@gsacom.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 1/75
  2. 2. Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA)  Representing leading GSM/EDGE, WCDMA-HSPA, LTE suppliers globally  Promoting GSM/EDGE/WCDMA and evolved systems for successful delivery of mobile broadband, enhanced multimedia, voice services  3GPP Market Representation Partner Mobile Broadband Growth Facts-based research by GSA Leveraging strong links in the industry UMTS 900 Global Status Objective analysis Evolution to LTE GSA surveys, reports, regular updates Evolution of Network Speeds LTE Operator Commitments Mobile Broadband Spectrum HSPA network deployments/launches EDGE Evolution WCDMA Network Launches HSPA Evolution (HSPA+) HSPA Devices availability Digital Dividend spectrum 3G Services and Applications ~60 charts, maps Mobile broadband success stories EDGE Operators Worldwide www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 2/75
  3. 3. Global reach RSS newsfeed www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4 LinkedIN Group: www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=2313721 Twitter www.twitter.com/gsacom Mobile site http://gsacom.mobi Visitors to GSA website came from 193 countries 30 November 08 – 30 November 09 #1 USA The GSA website www.gsacom.com is #2 UK #3 China targeted to the industry, operators, #4 Japan regulators, analysts, media, government, #5 India #6 Sweden consultants, suppliers, services/apps Ranking of where #7 Germany developers, content industry, and #8 France visitors to the GSA #9 Taiwan distribution channels website came from: #10 Canada (Google Analytics) #11 Finland #12 Australia #13 South Korea 13,600 + file downloads average/month in Q3 09 #14 Brazil #15 Italy #16 Netherlands #17 Singapore #18 Russia #19 Turkey 960+ press/industry reports Q1 – Q3 09 #20 Hong Kong www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 3/75
  4. 4. Hot reports November 2009 top document downloads #1 Evolution to LTE Information Paper #2 GSM/3G Market Update #3 Evolution of Network Speeds #4 Mobile Broadband Growth – Reports from Operators Worldwide #5 World map – LTE commitments All available as free downloads #6 Update on Global HSPA Evolution (HSPA+) commitments www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 4/75
  5. 5. GSA is now on LinkedIN Invitation to join the GSA Group on LinkedIN www.linkedin.com/groups?gid=2313721 757 Members News, technology and market updates Discussions Networking www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 5/75
  6. 6. GSA – new Member companies SpiderCloud Wireless Velocent Systems www.spidercloud.com www.velocent.com Also see dedicated page: www.gsacom.com/about/members.php4?m=37 Also see this paper from Velocent Systems www.gsacom.com/downloads/pdf/Call_Trace_WP_Velocent_GSA.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 6/75
  7. 7. The continuing global GSM and WCDMA success story GSM/WCDMA market share = 89.5% Market share grew 1.2% in past year 4 billion GSM/WCDMA subs passed in October 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 7/75
  8. 8. GSM success in all regions See growth charts for all regions and key markets at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 8/75
  9. 9. Data growth in all regions Download this chart and other mobile data-related charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 9/75
  10. 10. Mobile Broadband growth success Consistent reports from operators worldwide of traffic and revenue growth Report from GSA – December 2009 Mobile Broadband Growth www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 10/75
  11. 11. www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 11/75
  12. 12. Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G - Drivers: capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery - for revenue growth Q3 09 market share TDMA EDGE EDGE Evolution 3GPP Core GSM/3G GSM GPRS Network WCDMA HSDPA/HSUPA HSPA+ 89.5% PDC © GSA - 2009 cdma cdmaOne CDMA2000 9.8% CDMA2000 EV/DO EV/DO 1x 1x EV/DO Rev 0 Rev A Rev B others 0.7% 2G First Step into 3G 3G phase 1 Evolved 3G Market share according to subscriptions data provided by Informa Telecoms & Media www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 12/75
  13. 13. 3GPP radio access evolution LTE Evolution LTE HSPA+ HSPA 3G/WCDMA D/L peak rate 384 kbps 14.4 Mbps 21/28/42/84 Mbps > 150+ Mbps 1 Gbps target www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 13/75
  14. 14. www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 14/75
  15. 15. World’s first LTE networks launched TeliaSonera’s press release: On December 15, 2009 TeliaSonera http://feed.ne.cision.com/wpyfs/00/00/00/00/00/10/35/95/wkr0011.pdf launched the world’s first LTE services in Sweden and Norway. The LTE networks cover the central city areas of Stockholm and Oslo and initially will be used for mobile data services. Coverage roll-out to more cities in each country will continue in 2010. WEBCAST http://media.fronto.com/streaming/teliasonera/091214/ www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 15/75
  16. 16. 315 Commercial WCDMA Operators in 132 countries WCDMA is the leading 3G system globally • over 73% commercial 3G networks share Source: GSA 3G/WCDMA-HSPA Launches Worldwide survey December 4, 2009 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 16/75
  17. 17. 354 HSPA network commitments GLOBAL economies of scale today in HSPA-enabled mobile broadband 303 HSPA networks commercially launched HSPA Operator Commitments Survey: GSA – December 4, 2009 ~ 96% of commercial WCDMA networks are HSPA-enabled www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 17/75
  18. 18. HSPA subscriptions growth worldwide 244% HSPA annual growth to June 09 167 million HSPA subscriptions: June 09 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 18/75
  19. 19. 1,875 HSPA devices launched by 197 suppliers 780 new HSPA user devices launched in past 12 months GSA HSPA Devices Survey: December 3, 2009 Key Findings: www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 19/75
  20. 20. HSUPA device availability 159% YoY growth 156 HSUPA products support* or are upgradeable for 5.76 Mbps (peak) or higher (compared to 51 devices Dec 08) Download chart www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 GSA HSPA Devices Survey: December 3, 2009 Key Findings: www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 20/75
  21. 21. Convergence features in HSPA devices 1,875 HSPA Devices “phones” category includes smartphones 447 phones incorporate GPS/A-GPS (136% annual growth) 471 phones incorporate 802.11/WiFi (91% annual growth) 163 phones incorporate mobile TV (various standards) More analysis in the Key Findings report GSA HSPA Devices Survey: December 3, 2009 Key Findings: www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 21/75
  22. 22. HSPA devices by operating frequency More analysis in GSA HSPA Devices Survey - Key Findings : December 3, 2009 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/wcdma_databank.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 22/75
  23. 23. GAMBoD – www.gsacom.com/gambod GSA’s analysis tool for HSPA devices More comprehensive analysis, personalized to individual needs, is available using GAMBoD (GSA Analyzer for Mobile Broadband Devices) www.gsacom.com/gambod GAMBoD: analysis tool for HSPA devices, for searches by supplier, form factor, features, downlink/uplink speeds, operating frequency Results are presented as lists, spreadsheets, or charts which may be inserted into documents or presentations RSS feed can be set up to alert when new devices are added For use only by GSA website registered users we categorize as being from GSA member organizations or from mobile network operators www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 23/75
  24. 24. HSPA Evolution (HSPA+) - market reality today Downlink evolution  64QAM instead of 16QAM = 50% improvement  Using multiple antennas – MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) will be possible; 2 at the base station and 2 at the terminal will double the bit rate This will mean the ability to deliver a downlink data speed of 42 Mbps peak on a 5 MHz carrier Uplink evolution Using 16QAM instead of QPSK modulation means doubling uplink rate up to 11.5 Mbps Reduced latency Further evolution of HSPA utilizes combinations of and MIMO technologies to reach 84 Mbps peak on the downlink, and 23 Mbps peak uplink And further evolution beyond that …….. www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 24/75
  25. 25. HSPA Evolution (HSPA+) www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 25/75
  26. 26. 28 Mbps DL is market reality 42 Mbps expected by year end Latest: see HSPA+ information updates paper Global HSPA+ Network Commitments and Deployments – www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 26/75
  27. 27. EDGE contributes to mobile broadband success Most HSPA networks combine EDGE with HSPA for 3G services delivery The majority of WCDMA-HSPA networks are complemented with GSM/EDGE for service continuity in areas where WCDMA-HSPA coverage is not available, to ensure that users will receive a good experience of most 3G services 233 of 354 HSPA network operator commitments (66%) also committed to EDGE EDGE can today deliver user data speeds up to 300 kbps peak; more coming with EDGE Evolution Over 80% of HSDPA user devices also support GSM/EDGE (excluding notebooks) www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 27/75
  28. 28. EDGE – global, mature technology Over 80% of commercial GPRS networks globally have committed to EDGE  478 GSM/EDGE commitments in 189 countries  443 commercial GSM/EDGE networks in 181 countries Source: GSA EDGE Fact Sheet July 7, 2009 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/edge_databank.php4#EDGE_Fact_Sheet www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 28/75
  29. 29. EDGE networks expansion Download charts www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 Source: GSA EDGE Fact Sheet July 7, 2009 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/edge_databank.php4#EDGE_Fact_Sheet www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 29/75
  30. 30. EDGE Evolution Evolved GERAN - Drivers and goals Operators stress service continuity as being very important WCDMA evolution to HSDPA is a key driver for EDGE Evolution (GERAN Evolution) since reducing the performance gap is the priority EDGE Evolution - potential benefits:  2 – 3 times increase in EDGE bit rates  2 – 3 times spectral efficiency gain (for voice & data capacity)  Halve the latency (roundtrip time)  All achieved with low impact on the GSM/EDGE network Standardized in 3GPP Release 7 Leading manufacturers committed; commercialization expected from 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 30/75
  31. 31. Peak speeds of EDGE Evolution features within 3GPP Release 7 specifications  DL speed up to 1.2 Mbps per user expected  standard enables up to 1.9 Mbps per user  Dual Carrier first phase implementation 10 TSL per user; standard enables up to 16 TSL per user  EGPRS-2 DL (REDHOT) level B maximum 118.4 kbps per TSL  UL speed up to 474 kbps per user, standard enables up to 947 kbps per user  EGPRS-2 UL (HUGE) level B with maximum 118.4 kbps per TSL  Peak implementation today 4 TSL per user; standard enables up to 8 TSL per user www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 31/75
  32. 32. Dual Carrier – the first step in evolving EDGE Dual Carrier is the first step in evolving EDGE, bringing the prospect of doubling today’s EDGE speeds to 592 kbps on existing EDGE-capable networks. Commercial downlink Dual Carrier solutions are expected to be introduced in 2009. EGPRS-2 level B+ is standardized in the newly- released 3GPP Release 8, providing a wider pulse shaping filter to enable higher average end user throughput, and therefore better coverage compared to level B. Commercial solutions for EGPRS-2 level B+ in the downlink are expected to be introduced in 2010. GSA Information Paper “EDGE Evolution” www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 32/75
  33. 33. Mobile broadband frequency bands WCDMA systems incl. HSPA are deployed in 850, 900, 1700, 1800, 1900, 2100 MHz Most operate in IMT-2000 core band 1920-1980/2110–2170 MHz (referred to as 2100 MHz) 850, 900 MHz deliver coverage and cost efficiencies and are increasing in importance. The eco-system in these bands is rapidly strengthening 700 MHz: 62 MHz of Digital Dividend spectrum auctioned in US; will be auctioned later in other countries in the Americas, and elsewhere 2.50 - 2.69 GHz band is anticipated as the largest new spectrum resource New UHF Digital Dividend spectrum is becoming available in all regions  excellent for extending mobile broadband to rural and semi-urban areas, and to improve in-building performance in built up areas Region 1 (Europe, Middle East and Africa) identified 790-862 MHz for mobile services Region 2 (Americas) identified 698-806 MHz Region 3 (Asia) some countries (e.g. China, India, Japan) identified 698-862 MHz while others identified 790-862 MHz www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 33/75
  34. 34. 2.6 GHz band The 2.50 - 2.69 GHz band is anticipated as the largest new spectrum resource for mobile broadband services in the foreseeable future. It is identified by the ITU as the IMT extension band and is needed due to traffic growth in 3G/HSPA networks It is large enough to allow multiple operators to deploy technologies utilizing wide channels, such as the 2 x 20 MHz channels for the highest data speeds of LTE The CEPT band plan was included in CEPT Decision (05)05, agreed by consensus in 2005 by its 48 member countries. It includes a commitment to make the band available from 2008 depending on market demand. The plan comprises 2 x 70 MHz paired FDD spectrum separated by 50 MHz of unpaired spectrum for FDD downlink or TDD Sweden implemented the Decision; first country to auction 2.6 GHz spectrum in compliance. Finland, Norway, Hong Kong and Singapore have completed similar auctions. Forthcoming allocations likely in 2009/10 include Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, UK,,, …... and in Latin America: Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Brazil www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 34/75
  35. 35. 2.6 GHz is a key band for LTE in Europe and Asia  Telenor and Netcom have been granted licences and 2.6 GHz spectrum and will build LTE networks in Norway  TeliaSonera announced LTE commercial service in Oslo launched on December 15, 2009  Teliasonera, Elisa and DNA have been granted licences and 2.6 GHz spectrum and will build LTE networks in Finland  TeliaSonera Sweden is deploying LTE using nationwide 2x20 MHz 2.6 GHz spectrum and announced commercial service in Stockholm launched on December 15, 2009  In Hong Kong, 2x15 MHz blocks of 2.6 GHz FDD spectrum have been auctioned, and won by China Mobile, Genius Brand and CSL Limited Several auctions of 2.6 GHz spectrum are scheduled or planned throughout European markets during 2010 and onwards which will be key spectrum for LTE Source of data: GSA Information Paper “Evolution to LTE” – December 10, 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 35/75
  36. 36. Spectrum below 1 GHz 850, 900 MHz Growing awareness and appreciation of the benefits of deploying mobile broadband systems in re-farmed 900 MHz band: systems today referred to as UMTS900 (or WCDMA-HSPA900) UMTS900 gaining traction amongst operators and regulators across Europe, Asia, Oceania, Middle East, Africa, Russia Regulatory obstacles in Europe being removed The 20-year old GSM Directive has been amended, allowing mobile broadband systems in re-farmed 900 and 1800 MHz spectrum UMTS900 eco-system is rapidly developing, including HSPA user devices UMTS900 and UMTS2100 deployments are complementary Similar benefits obtained with HSPA in 850 MHz band; commercial systems today in Australia, New Zealand, and the Americas www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 36/75
  37. 37. UMTS900 = cost reduction in rural/suburban areas GSA UMTS900 operator case study Elisa, Finland Increased coverage Significant CAPEX, OPEX savings Re-use existing sites Faster rollout Improved voice service Improved in-building penetration UMTS900 Operator Case Study on Elisa www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 UMTS900 has an economic motivation – it is a business decision www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 37/75
  38. 38. UMTS900 = improved user experience of MBB and voice GSA UMTS900 operator case study Optus, Australia “Site optimization gave customers a kick up in performance for 2G service as well as access to UMTS900” “The extended reach of 900 MHz means we can deliver better quality and wider coverage across sparsely populated areas, as well as enhanced depth of coverage” “UMTS900 has been critical in bringing up the depth of coverage into people’s homes, so they get a similar experience in both voice and data coverage, making it a more economically feasible solution for expansion” “By having a technology that allows us to get into more places at a lower cost, we can deliver more services. For example, we can grow our small and medium business and consumer market penetration” UMTS900 Operator Case Study on Optus “Amongst other applications, UMTS900 implementation is a www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 case study for how we will utilize new spectrum arising from the Digital Dividend” www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 38/75
  39. 39. UMTS900 commercialization Updates: UMTS900 Global Status report www.gsacom.com 14 commercial UMTS900 systems 208 UMTS900-HSPA devices launched www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 39/75
  40. 40. UMTS900 – operator insights Recommended download – www.gsacom.com UMTS900 Update: New Operator Insights Presentation by Dr Eetu Prieur, Elisa Finland Developing A Fully Inclusive Mobile Broadband Strategy: Bringing Mobile Broadband To Remote And Rural Areas Presentation by Dr. Eetu Prieur, Elisa at IIR Mobile Broadband World, London, September 23, 2009 Elisa launched the world's first UMTS900 (HSPA) system in Finland in November 2007 and are now upgrading to HSPA+. In his presentation Dr Eetu Prieur explains why UMTS900 is “a 100% clear go”. www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 40/75
  41. 41. UMTS850 networks in commercial service (WCDMA-HSPA) UMTS850 commercial launch: October 06 World’s largest UMTS 850 network. Telstra's Next G™ network covers more than 1.9 million square kilometres. The Next G™ network provides mobile broadband access to 99 per cent of Australians, spanning city to country including many remote coastal and rural communities (www.telstra.com.au) 56 commercial UMTS-HSPA networks throughout the Americas; several operating in the 850 MHz band Strong UMTS850 ecosystem exists today including 643 HSPA devices (plus notebooks) in the market which operate in the 850 MHz band (Source: GSA HSPA Devices survey – December 3, 2009) www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 41/75
  42. 42. Digital Dividend Spectrum Digital Dividend spectrum is excellent for extending mobile broadband to rural and semi-urban areas, and to improve in-building performance in built up areas www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 42/75
  43. 43. 700 MHz band Digital Dividend spectrum 700 MHz is a key band for LTE deployments  700 MHz LTE deployments include Verizon Wireless, AT&T Mobility, several regional players  Verizon Wireless has set up trial networks in Boston and Seattle  700 MHz spectrum availability will extend throughout Americas. This could be earliest in Chile where LTE trials are planned by Entel PCS, Claro and Movistar. Subtel (regulator) expected to soon launch a spectrum auction (2.6 GHz, 700 MHz)  The Indian government has formed a task group to develop a national band plan at 700 MHz  Consultations on future use of 700 MHz have commenced in New Zealand Verizon Wireless LTE commercial launch in up to 30 markets scheduled by end 2010 Nationwide by end 2013 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 43/75
  44. 44. Europe Digital Dividend: 790-862 MHz Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland have confirmed they will allocate 790–862 MHz for mobile broadband services. The UK government proposes ring-fencing of some Digital Dividend spectrum so that operators can push 3G beyond their license obligation of 80% population. In return, operators would receive an indefinite extension to their 3G licences In Germany, trials are underway with some local authorities in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to use digital dividend frequencies to provide HSPA or LTE broadband services to communities without broadband possibilities. An auction of 790-862 MHz spectrum will be held soon. In Italy, Communications Undersecretary, Paolo Romani, announced that frequencies vacated during the analogue switch off will be auctioned Belgium is undertaking a consultation on the Digital Dividend, as is Poland Czech Republic regulator CTU has undertaken a 2nd round of consultation on the 470-862 MHz band. A 3rd round of consultation is likely in the Autumn Norway stated (September 2009) 790-862MHz to be allocated to mobile broadband (auction expected 2010) In Ireland, Comreg began a Digital Dividend review at its annual conference in October 2008 In Slovakia the regulator TU launched a public consultation calling for comments by April 3rd, 2009 In Spain, the Industry Ministry recently issued a press release indicating digital dividend spectrum would likely be reserved for cellular, especially for mobile Internet broadband, from January 2015 In Portugal, public consultations on the Digital Dividend closed on May 13, 2009 Serbia recently completed a consultation on the Digital Dividend www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 44/75
  45. 45. Europe Digital TV transition timetable Examples of the digital switchover timetable in Europe: • Belgium (Flanders region), Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland: already switched over • 2010: includes Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Malta, Slovenia, and Spain • 2011 – 2012: includes Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, the United Kingdom, regions of Wallonia and Brussels (Belgium) It is clear that political debate on the Digital Dividend is entering the mainstream in other parts of the world – particularly Africa, India, Latin America www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 45/75
  46. 46. LTE: Long Term Evolution LTE is the next step in the user experience LTE is essential to take mobile broadband to the mass market www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 46/75
  47. 47. The industry direction is to LTE LTE is needed to accommodate huge traffic growth Traffic rising/revenue falling 40x – 100x traffic increase may need to be supported across several frequency bands Mobile broadband is gaining momentum from widespread 3.5G deployments, flat rate data tariffs, and availability of internet friendly mobiles www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 47/75
  48. 48. Benefits of LTE Spectrum flexibility Can use new or re-farmed spectrum, FDD and TDD Variable channel bandwidth Improved performance Year 2010: LTE performance Higher capacity, peak and user data rates Higher bandwidth “always on”; enhanced user experience Peak downlink: > 150 Mbps Typical user experience: 10-100 Mbps Lower cost IP-based flat network architecture; Low OPEX Typical user UL rate: 5-50 Mbps High degree of self configuration/optimization High re-use of assets including sites Complements 3G/HSPA Addresses high capacity requirements Seamless service continuity/multimode devices Next generation solution for 3GPP and 3GPP2 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 48/75
  49. 49. The Roadmap Excellent Mobile Broadband Today Enhanced User Experience Voice and full Range of IP Services Improved voice and data capability Rel-99 Rel-5 Rel-6 Rel-7 Rel-8 Rel-9 & beyond WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ (HSPA Evolved) Rel-8 Rel-9 Rel-10 LTE leverages new, wider and TDD spectrum LTE LTE - A 2009 - 2010 2011+ - - - - - - - - - > www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 49/75
  50. 50. LTE system design Downlink based on OFDMA: Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access, for improved spectral efficiency, capacity etc QPSK, 16QAM and 64QAM modulation schemes supported Uplink based on SC-FDMA: Single Carrier – Frequency Division Multiple Access. Technically similar to OFDMA but better suited for uplink from hand-held devices (battery power considerations) BPSK, QPSK, 8PSK and 16QAM modulation schemes supported Designed for both paired and unpaired spectrum use Designed for FDD and TDD use Macro-diversity (soft handover) no longer required Circuit-switched connectivity no longer supported www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 50/75
  51. 51. LTE Standard LTE Release 8 Major Parameters Access Scheme UL DFTS-OFDM DL OFDMA LTE-Release 8 User Equipment Categories Bandwidth 1.4, 3.5, 10,15, 20MHz Minimum TTI 1msec Sub-carrier spacing 15kHx Cyclic prefix length Short 4.7usec Long 16.7usec Modulation QPSK, 16QAM, 64QAM Spatial multiplexing Single layer for UL per UE Up to 4 layers for DL per UE MU-MIMO supported for UL and DL LTE is specified in 36 series technical specifications The LTE Release 8 specifications can be found on www.3gpp.org ™ ETSI has registered "LTE" as a trademark for the benefit of the 3GPP Partners www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 51/75
  52. 52. Evolution of the 3GPP Core Network - SAE The 3GPP core network has also undergone System Architecture Evolution (SAE) in the same timeframe The architecture is based on an as LTE, optimizing it for packet mode and, in particular, evolution of the existing GSM/WCDMA core for the IP-Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), which supports network, with simplified operations and all access technologies, including fixed wire-line access. smooth, cost-efficient deployment This allows:  Improvements in latency, capacity, throughput Simplification of the core network, and optimization for IP traffic and services, and expected growth Simplified support & handover to non-3GPP access technologies The result is the evolved packet system (EPS) that consists of the core network part, the evolved packet core (EPC) and the radio network evolution part, the evolved UTRAN (E-UTRAN), i.e. LTE. The EPS is Source: Ericsson also standardized within 3GPP Release 8 (March 2009) There are two nodes in the SAE architecture user plane; the LTE base and is the baseline for implementations. station (eNodeB) and the SAE Gateway. This flat architecture reduces the number of involved nodes in connections. LTE base stations are connected to the core network over the S1 interface www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 52/75
  53. 53. Is LTE ready?  Standards are complete (Release 8 – March 2009)  LTE has global acceptance by leading operators worldwide  Infrastructure systems are shipping and being installed now  Spectrum is available to support initial system deployments  In trials LTE performance consistently meets or exceeds expectations  LTE is poised for market entry, with several trials and commercial deployments on-going, and several operator launch plans already announced www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 53/75
  54. 54. Who is committed? 51 LTE network commitments worldwide  51 LTE network commitments in 24 countries  Up to 19 LTE networks in service by end 2010  Up to 36 LTE networks in service by end 2012 Source of data: GSA Information Paper “Evolution to LTE” – December 10, 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 54/75
  55. 55. Global LTE Commitments Charts and maps are available at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 Source of data: GSA Information Paper “Evolution to LTE” – December 10, 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 55/75
  56. 56. Global LTE Commitments www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 56/75
  57. 57. LTE eco-system is building Mobile phones, computer & consumer electronics devices (notebooks, netbooks, UMPCs, gaming devices, cameras, PMPs, etc.) will incorporate embedded LTE connectivity  Several LTE device platforms are already announced by leading vendors, including Altair, Qualcomm, Infineon, LG, Samsung, ST-Ericsson, 4M Wireless  Test instruments/systems already available from several vendors  GSA expects many of today’s 190 HSPA device manufacturers to participate in the LTE market, with others also coming in  First LTE user devices are modems; Samsung GT-B3710 launched (TeliaSonera)  LTE handsets expected in the market around 2010-2011  Verizon Wireless LTE Device Requirements Specification published April 2009 (700 MHz) World’s first LTE USB modem announced at CommunicAsia 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 57/75
  58. 58. Voice over LTE LTE is likely to be deployed with a focus on data services connectivity for PCs, netbooks, etc  Voice service will be introduced as a second step  The One Voice initiative – announced on November 4, 2009, aims for industry agreement on a harmonized way to implement voice and SMS over LTE, based on existing standards.  As LTE is a pure IP technology, traditional voice and SMS services must be implemented over the packet network  One Voice uses current open standards to define the minimum mandatory set of functionality for interoperable IMS-based voice & SMS in LTE  IMS basic capabilities and voice including supplementary services  Real-time media negotiation, transport and codecs  LTE radio and evolved packet core capabilities  Functionality that is relevant across the protocol stack and subsystems  AT&T  Orange The One Voice initiative is Telefonica  Vodafone backed up by TeliaSonera  Ericsson the largest Verizon  Nokia players in the Alcatel-Lucent  Samsung industry Nokia Siemens Networks  Sony Ericsson www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 58/75
  59. 59. TD-LTE The LTE market will include TD-LTE as well as FDD systems Li Yizhong, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, stated recently that TD-SCDMA subscribers in China are expected to reach 80 million by 2011. China Mobile aims to cover 238 cities by end 2009. China Mobile posted 1.327 million 3G/TD-SCDMA subscribers total at end August 2009 and set a target of 3 million by end 2009 TD-LTE is positioned as the next evolution in TD-SCDMA family and a natural progression  From 3GPP standards perspective: commonality with FDD  From vendor perspective: increasing use of software defined radio techniques  From operator perspective: spectrum availability, flexible base stations TD-LTE trials now  Timescales established for prototype, dual-mode and multimode devices  In-service estimated as 2012-2013 Early TDD Spectrum for LTE (TTD-LTE)  IMT Extension Center Gap 2570–2620 MHz  2.3 TDD I.e. 2300 – 2400 MHz www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 59/75
  60. 60. TD-LTE - comparison of FDD and TDD modes FDD v TDD DL PHY differences In the DL, the PDCCH contains a number of extra bits specific to TDD The P-SCH, S-SCH and PHICH also differ from FDD. Other channels are unchanged FDD v TDD UL PHY differences TDD operation affects the timing, control and frame structure. DwPTS: sent from eNodeB as part of synchronisation GP: empty guard band For the UL channels, the key UpPTS: sent from UE as part of synchronisation changes are the PRACH channel and sounding. www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 60/75
  61. 61. TD-LTE - more information Recommended download – www.gsacom.com From TD-SCDMA to TD-LTE (Presentation by Aeroflex Asia at 4G Wireless Broadband Evolution seminar) - Where we are today - Next steps - The role of TD-LTE - Looking forward Presentation by Stephen Hire, Director of Marketing, Aeroflex Asia at the 4G Wireless Broadband Evolution seminar - Hong Kong, September 7, 2009 - jointly organized by GSA and Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks (www.hkstp.org) Aeroflex (www.aeroflex.com) is a member organization of the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 61/75
  62. 62. Spectrum for LTE deployments  An operator may introduce LTE in „new‟ bands where it is easier to deploy 10 MHz or 20 MHz carriers  e.g. 2.6 GHz band (IMT Extension band) or Digital Dividend spectrum 700, 800 MHz  Or in re-farmed existing mobile bands e.g. 850, 900, 1700, 1800, 1900, 2100 MHz  Eventually LTE may be deployed in all of these bands – and others later  2.6 GHz (for capacity) and 700/800 MHz (wider coverage, improved in-building) is a good combination  LTE offers a choice of carrier bandwidths: 1.4 MHz to 20 MHz; the widest bandwidth will be needed for the highest speeds www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 62/75
  63. 63. LTE deployment - Sweden 2.6 GHz spectrum has been auctioned Tele2 Sweden and Telenor Sweden are to build a nationwide LTE network 900 MHz can be used for 3G through a new JV, “Net4 Mobility” “The present licences in the 900 MHz band will be renewed and it will be possible for the operators to Operators will share phase in new technology for mobile broadband spectrum in the 900 MHz while at the same time continuing to offer GSM and 2.6 GHz bands mobile telephony. The entire frequency space available in the 900 MHz band will be assigned, Shared GSM network also which will enable entry of a new stakeholder through PTS planned to extend reach by approving the transfer of frequencies to the operator Hi3G.” 30 – 50% Press release, PTS, 13.03.09 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 63/75
  64. 64. Other frequency bands for LTE LTE FDD TD- LTE LTE FDD will most likely in future be Early TDD Spectrum for LTE (TTD-LTE) deployed in existing cellular bands too, including:  IMT Extension Center Gap 2570–2620 MHz  2.3 TDD I.e. 2300 – 2400 MHz  850 MHz  900 MHz  AWS (1700/2100 MHz)  1800 MHz  1900 MHz  2100 MHz Future possibilities: Future TDD possibility  450 – 470 MHz  3.6 GHz  3.6 GHz www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 64/75
  65. 65. Update from the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative LSTI LSTI is an open initiative driven by Vendors and Operators launched in May 2007 Its objectives are to: • Drive industrialization of 3GPP LTE/SAE technology • Demonstrate LTE/SAE capabilities against 3GPP and NGMN requirements • Stimulate development of the LTE/SAE Recommended download ecosystem For the latest results, including Proof of Concept www.lstiforum.org Activity, Interoperability Testing, Friendly Customer Trials, Milestone Plan, etc. download “Update from the LTE/SAE Trial Initiative” at www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 65/75
  66. 66. LTE-Advanced 3GPP made a formal submission to the ITU, meeting the deadline of October 7, 2009, proposing that LTE Release 10 & beyond (LTE-Advanced) be evaluated as a candidate for IMT-Advanced. The submission was made jointly in the name of the 3GPP Organizational Partners: ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TTA and TTC. (GSA is a Market Representation Partner in 3GPP) 3GPP plans to complete its work on LTE-Advanced specifications by 2010/2011 Further information: Source of data: GSA Information Paper “Evolution to LTE” – December 10, 2009 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 66/75
  67. 67. LTE-Advanced (Information update) Recommended download PRESENTATION Beyond Mobile Broadband - What Is LTE-Advanced & What Will It Offer to Your Network? Log in and go to www.gsacom.com/downloads/pdf/LTE_Advanced__Peter_Merz_NSN.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 67/75
  68. 68. LTE: A single global standard  LTE is on track, attracting global industry support  LTE is the natural migration choice for GSM/HSPA operators. LTE is also the next generation mobile broadband system of choice of leading CDMA operators, who are expected to be in the forefront of service introduction  As a result of collaboration between 3GPP, 3GPP2 and IEEE there is a roadmap for CDMA operators to evolve to LTE  Successful handovers between CDMA and LTE networks have been demonstrated and announced (August 2009)  The LTE-TDD mode (TD-LTE) provides a future-proof evolutionary path for TD-SCDMA  With LTE we have one single global standard, securing and driving even higher economies of scale and importantly, simplifying roaming Source: Evolution to LTE: GSA Information Paper www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 68/75
  69. 69. Evolution to LTE – regular updates Information Paper New! Presentation slide deck www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 69/75
  70. 70. Wireless broadband global forecasts Source: Analysys Mason Insight, July 31, 2008 ABI Research forecasts by 2013 operators will spend over US$ 8.6 billion on LTE base stations infrastructure Strategy Analytics forecasts global LTE handset growth from 70 million units in 2012 to 150 million by 2013 Pyramid Research predicts LTE will grow faster than 3G www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 70/75
  71. 71. Key events supported by GSA The listed events are endorsed by GSA Discounts are available to GSA members for most events More information and links to organizers’ websites at www.gsacom.com/events/index.php4 www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 71/75
  72. 72. GSA at Mobile World Congress 2010 GSA will be participating at Mobile World Congress Contact point at the Show: Trade Fair Ltd Hall 1 Gallery Level Stand: 1.1 HS43 Meeting and interview requests via: Lucy Turner, GSA email: info@gsacom.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 72/75
  73. 73. LTE Forum 2010 – Stockholm, 27-28 April, 2010 LTE Forum 2010 will help operators to identify the evolutionary steps to LTE (Long Term Evolution), to understand the drivers for migrating, and to determine what they need to be doing now to ensure their network remains competitive. Presentations from mobile operators and other industry experts will help delegates to understand why, when and how to migrate to LTE, and what they should be doing now to ensure their networks remain competitive into the future. GSA is an endorsing association and will be participating in this event More information www.lteforum2010.com www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 73/75
  74. 74. New IMS Report The Moriana IMS and RCS Report 2009 Exclusive 17.5% discount for visitors to the GSA website This new market study from The Moriana Group www.morianagroup.com is an analysis of original research conducted by Moriana in 2009 into the state of the IMS industry. And what key stakeholders actually think and have experienced in terms of IMS industry activity. The resulting report provides a rich set of data from which conclusions can be made regarding real activity and the likely future direction of the industry. Visit www.gsacom.com/store/ims_rcs.php4 to order the report, or download sample pages www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 74/75
  75. 75. Register for updates/press releases/downloads www.gsacom.com/php/register_form.php4 Evolution to LTE: GSA Information Paper www.gsacom.com/gsm_3g/info_papers.php4 60+ charts, graphs, maps www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 Charts and maps available at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4 website: www.gsacom.com www.gsacom.com/rss/gsanews.php4 www.twitter.com/gsacom http://gsacom.mobi www.gsacom.com Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2009 GSM/3G Market Update - December 16, 2009 Slide no. 75/75

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