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The Future is Blue
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Market Foresights No. 4 / 2014
2
Contents
Introduction
Page 3-6
01
Future Developments in
Marine Economy
Growing Maritime Trade
Growing Usage of Maritime
Resources
Growing Maritime Power
Production
Growing Maritime Tourism
Page 7-14
02
Intensifying Competition
and New Challenges
Intensifying Competition
Cost of Fuel, Environmental
Stressors, and New
Regulations
Page 15-20
03
Opportunities and Future
Markets
Growing Port Industry
Maritime Technologies and
Development of
Infrastructures
Sustainable Marine Economy
and Shipbuilding Innovations
Maritime Work and Living
Spaces
Food from the Sea and
Saltwater Desalination
Page 21-29
References
Page 30
Introduction
3
The consumption of natural resources increases
with the growth of the world population.
According to current prognoses, the population
will keep growing until the end of this century at
least. By the year 2100, the number of people
inhabiting the world will have grown from almost
seven billion today to up to eleven billion.1/2
The
hunger and need for energy grows without
restraint. In the future, more people will use
more energy per capita. This is mostly because
the standard of living in developing and emerging
countries will align with that in the western
world. By 2040, the global demand for energy
will increase by more than 50 percent compared
to 2010, despite continuously increasing energy
efficiency.
3
In the new emerging economic
regions, the demand for high quality foods and
consumable goods is growing along with the
income.
A shortage, inaccessibility, or finality of resources
could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price
increases with some natural reserves such as
crude oil or high-tech metals. A shortage of
drinking water and food will, in some regions,
increase the danger of conflicts over land and
water distribution. Against this background,
alternative and innovative resources become
more and more significant and valuable.
Corporations and countries alike focus more and
more on access to new, thus far economically
unattractive storage methods and power sources,
and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in
the medium and long term.
The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly
inexhaustible resource. Within the next years and
decades, management of marine resources will
increase greatly. Ecological risks and technical
hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of
maritime resources. Extreme conditions in the
deep sea, for example, pose high demands on
mining methods and technical equipment. At the
same time, demands grow loud to sustainably
use the oceans as a resource, so that we may
benefit from marine reserves in the long term
and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st
century.
4Einführung
40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions, and
the tendency is growing. The consequences of climate changes will pose
great challenges, particularly to cities.
4
5
Without a doubt, one of the greatest challenges
facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the
oceans as a source of food, resources, power,
and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic,
work, and living space. The reduction of fish
stock, the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas
emissions, as well as the stress placed on marine
ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are
only a few examples demonstrating that the
oceans are endangered already. At the same
time, these dangers offer opportunities, for
example, in the area of environmental
technologies. Within marine economy, the area
of sustainable marine economy will become a
multi-billion-market.
Making the oceans accessible as a resource
requires a continuous development of the
maritime infrastructure. This is a significant
future market for ship, machine, and plant
manufacturing companies. The oceans will also
become more and more significant as transport
area. As a result of the ever growing globalization
and changing spare time behaviors, the growing
need for the transportation of goods and
passengers offers opportunities for companies
involved in the marine traffic and port industries.
Developing coastal regions and a growing
environmentally responsible ocean tourism
promise “blue” growth as well. Tourism, the
largest sector of the maritime industry, creates
more than two million jobs in the European Union
and generates an added value of more than 100
billion Euro a year.5
In the future, the oceans and coastal regions will
be both work and living spaces for a growing
percentage of the world population. Hundreds of
millions of people live on land located less than
five meters above sea level, and the tendency is
growing. Many of these rapidly growing mega-
cities expand in coastal and delta regions. There,
the ocean is not just an economic factor, but,
due to global warming, a threat as well. Rising
sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will
result in higher financial expenditures and
innovative technological methodology in the
segment of flood protection for coastal regions.
Introduction
6
Future Markets in Marine Economy
Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry
Growing Usage of Maritime
Resources
Growing Maritime Power
Production
Development of Maritime
Infrastructures
Maritime Technologies
Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
7
01
Future Developments in
Marine Economy
8
Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy?
Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food
Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization
Shortage of Oil
Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability Automation/Robotization
9
Global trade will keep growing, driven by forces
such as the continuing globalization and the
development of a broad and spend-happy middle
class in the emerging economic regions. While
today about 60 percent of the global middle class
live in the developing and emerging countries, by
the year 2030, it will be about 80 percent.6
In the
same time period, world trade will grow an
average of eight percent per year.7
Marine trade
will more than double from today‘s nine billion
tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 2030.8
Logistics companies, port management, ship
builders and their suppliers will benefit from
growing container traffic. Following the over
capacity due to the economic crisis, the demand
for new ships will grow by the year 2020.9
In
addition, the average transport capacity and size
of container chips will keep growing. To save
costs, the ships’ fuel efficiency and technical
equipment must improve continuously.
Networking and automation are fields that will
become particularly significant.
Future Developments in Marine Economy
10Future Developments in Marine Economy
The ocean holds huge resources, from protein-
rich fish to crude oil, gas, and methane hydrate,
as well as economically interesting minerals and
metals. Biological resources are also useful, in
fields such as cosmetics and medication.
By the year 2030, food production will have to
increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need
of the world population. Protecting the oceans as
one of the most important food sources will be a
particularly significant task, because overfishing
of some fish stock is already an issue today.
Products from wild catches are being replaced by
aquaculture, i.e. controlled breeding. Between
2012 and 2019, the global market for aquaculture
will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195
billion.10
This development has a particularly
negative impact on developing countries, where
people’s livelihood is directly or indirectly
dependent on fishing, or where nutritional
resources diminish by continued overfishing.
Should fish stock be further decimated in the
future, fishing regulations might tighten and
quotas intensify considerably.
In the medium and long term, increasing
commodity prices will make deep sea mining
attractive. In the future, ore in form of
manganese modules, cobalt crusts, and massive
sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters
below the surface.11
Particularly manganese
modules, which are rich in non-ferrous metals,
provide high hopes, because these metals are
used for the production of of modern high-tech
products such as smart phones, solar cells, wind
power plants, or electric vehicles. Sustainable
mining, which is to say mining that will not put
too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean
floor, will provide a great challenge. If we wish to
safeguard our resources in the long term, the
mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic
importance. Access to and research of these
resources are regulated by the International
Seabed Authority of the United Nations. The rules
for commercial mining have not yet been
defined.12
Between 2010 and 2040, the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will
increase by more than 150 percent.
13
11Future Developments in Marine Economy
Future Developments in Marine Economy 12
Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first
company planning the mining of massive sulfides
from the seabed.14
Germany owns research
licenses for two areas in the Pacific.
The future of energy production also lies in the
oceans. Globally, about one third of natural gas
and oil is mined in the ocean, and the tendency
is increasing.15
The dependence of the global
economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious
level. Almost all industrialized countries have to
import oil to cover their needs. While the global
use of oil keeps growing quickly, experts fear
that the maximum might be reached soon. The
mining of new power sources, which thus far are
not economically viable, and the development of
new mining technologies are becoming more
significant. In order to mine oil and gas in the
deep sea, swimming platforms, for example, will
be needed. Between 2010 and 2030, their
number will more than double to a total of 600
world wide.16
In the future, plants that can
operate directly on the seabed at depths of
several thousand meters will likely play an
increased role as well. Suitable technologies
could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural
gas and oil and be far more cost effective than
today's platform-based plants.
One of the largest fossil energy sources is
methane hydrate. Countries investing most on
researching this energy source are Japan and the
USA. In 2013, Japanese scientists were able to
mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level
and buried more than 300 meters deep in the
seabed. Commercial mining is supposed to
commence by 2018. Offshore methane hydrate
resources could provide Japan with energy for
more than 100 years.17
There are still
technological hurdles to overcome. In addition,
mining harbors geological and ecological risks.
In addition to providing a large supply of energy
sources, the oceans are also an energy source
itself. Energy from wave, tide, and current power
plants will become a more significant part of the
regenerative energy mix. The future market
marine energy is interesting for established plant
manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups.
13
Between 2013 and 2020, the power from offshore wind energy will more
than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide.
18
Future Developments in Marine Economy
14
The Finnish company Minesto, for example,
developed ‘Deep Green’, an undersea kite
tethered to the seabed, which moves with the
ocean current, thus creating energy via a turbine
and a generator.19
Offshore wind power will grow to become one of
the largest segments in the market for renewable
energies. Germany’s energy concept plans an
increase in this area up to 25.000 MW by 2030.
Between 2013 and 2020, investments in Europe’s
wind power will more than double to a total of 14
billion Euro. By 2020, global investments in
offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion.20
Maritime tourism will become more significant as
well. Today, about 2.4 million people work in the
field of coastal and ocean tourism, of which
150,000 work in the cruise industry.21
In the past
few years, this market has experienced an
enormous boom. Between 2003 and 2013, the
number of passengers rose from 12 million to
21.3 million world wide, a total growth of 77
percent.22
By 2018, the number of passengers
will increase by an additional three million to a
total of 24.1 million.23
In 2025, experts expect
passenger traffic of 36.4 million.24
Providers have
to expand their fleets. The German shipbuilding
industry will profit. The trend toward experience
travel will increase the demand for specialized
tourism (fun, sports, adventure, wellness, etc.).
Within the premium travel segment, mobile
islands, underwater hotels and submarine travel
could be an interesting growth market. The
company Deep Ocean Technology, for example,
develops technologies for underwater hotels.
The hotel room segments can be lowered up to
30 meters below sea level. Plans to implement
such a prestigious project are already in
existence.25
Future Developments in Marine Economy
15
02
Intensifying Competition and
New Challenges
16
The competition for the economic usage of
maritime space and coastal regions will intensify.
For example, offshore wind park operators
compete with fisheries for space, neighboring
states in the Arctic fiercely compete for
resources, at least beyond the 200 mile zone,
and cruise ship companies fight for the best
berths and mooring times in the most attractive
port cities. To the extent that the oceans become
more and more attractive, because new
technologies make the oceans a more efficient
and comprehensive fountain of food, resources
and energy, countries and corporations will
increase their investments and activities to
develop and access this potential. Considering
the continuous population growth and the
increasing shortages of resources, in a worst
case scenario, unresolved or overlapping
territorial claims could turn violent and provoke
political conflict. For example, China and other
neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines, lay claim on the South China Sea,
where experts assume large sources of raw
materials.
Marine economy, particularly ocean trade, is
strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world
economy. The world wide financial crisis had led
to a significantly reduced demand for shipping
space as well as cancellations and decreased
orders for new ships. Due to overcapacities in the
container ship building industry, particularly in
Asia, the German ship building industry had to
restructure and refocus, building offshore-
oriented specialty ships instead of container
ships.26
The question is, how long will it take for
suppliers from emerging countries, particularly
from China, to enter the market for tailor-made
ships, and offer them at lower costs. There are
dramatic changes in the balance of the world
economy. Developing and emerging countries will
provide an ever larger portion of the workforce,
capital, technology, and trade volume. By 2050,
experts predict growth beyond average for the
BRIC states. Their share of the global social
product will grow significantly.
Intensifying Competition
and New Challenges
17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of
the world wide shipping markets.
27
As soon as ten years from now, China might
replace the United States as the largest national
economy in the world. Today, China is already
the largest container market. In addition, Chinese
banks could push into the market of ship
financing, while German banks reduced their
involvement in this sector following the financial
crises. In the future, German ship owners,
interested in investing might be forced to seek
financing from Chinese banks. This could have a
negative impact on the German supplier industry.
The competition between individual ports will
also intensify in the future. Because container
ships tend to become ever larger, ever fewer
central ports will handle an ever growing portion
of the sea trade. For example, within the next
few years, Hamburg could lose a portion of its
container business to the JadeWeser port in
Wilhelmshaven, which offers a larger depth that
is independent of the tides and therefore
attractive to giant freighters.28
International
relations change, too. While Hamburg used to
be among the largest container ports in the
world, today it ranks only in 16th place. By now,
six of the top ten ports in the world are in
China.29
Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges
to maritime traffic. Although we seem to have
skirted the issue of ‘Peak Oil,’ i.e. reaching the
mining maximum, by the expansion and
increased economic viability of unconventional oil
mining methods (‘fracking’), fact is, the new oil
boom likely only defers the problem to a later
time.
There are no clear predictions, since a decrease
of conventional oil mining will result in higher
investments in research and development of
unconventional oil resources. The danger
remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will
increase continuously, or at the very least, be
volatile. In addition, modernizing refineries will
result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co-
product although the demand will keep rising.
For several years now, ship owners have tried to
reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with
slower speeds, i.e. with slow-steaming-strategies.
18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
19
Sustainability is becoming ever more significant
in all trades. The discussion of climate protection
involves marine traffic as well. Due to new
environmental regulations, the shipping industry
will face major challenges in the coming years.
Increased restrictions that limit the emission of
harmful substances will require the use of
expensive fuels or investment in new filtering
and propulsion technologies. Among other things,
this will lead to additional cost increases for
container freight.30
In 2008, the International
Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits
for sulfur and nitric oxide, prescribing a decrease
of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the
current 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent by 2020. In
emission control areas, an even stricter limit of
1.0 percent is in effect, which is to be reduced to
0.1 percent by 2015.31
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
20
Starting in 2020/2025, ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans
without costly post-cleaning efforts. This requires that ocean shipping
switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG).
32
Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
21
03
Opportunities and
Future Markets
22
Economic globalization will continue in the
coming years. Adjusted for price, the value of the
world wide trade of goods will grow from ten
billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars
in 2030.33
This development will benefit the port
industry, too. This industry includes all activities
involved in the value creation process of loading
and unloading goods as well as the transfer of
ship and ferry passengers. Between 2010 and
2030, the volume will rise by 2.8 percent a year
to a total of 468 tons. Ports at the North Sea will
grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea.34
By
2030, the freight volume in ports will grow by 50
percent within the European Union.35
Improving site conditions will become ever more
important for the individual ports: for example,
increased efficiency, expanded loading surfaces,
or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks
and train. The German government focuses
current investments on the expansion of seaward
access roads as well as effective inland
connections.36
Globally, the need for investments
in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40
billion Euro a year by 2030.
37
Ports will also
benefit from the growth of marine power
production. For example, ports will play an
increasingly central role in the value chain of
offshore wind energy. There are future
opportunities in the fields of montage, transfer
and service.38
However, ports will have to invest
heavily to be able to expand their capacities
accordingly.
The significance of automation and safety
technologies will increase due to the growing
transfer volume. Intelligent platforms based on
data that create a network of all actors involved
in the port economy promise additional
efficiency. To guarantee international
competitiveness, the cooperation between
individual ports might become increasingly
relevant. In 2013, the WWF offered a study of
the cooperation between ports in Northern
Germany to improve the port location Germany.39
Opportunities and Future Markets
23Opportunities and Future Markets
By the year 2019, the global market of ROVs (remotely operated
vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year, the market for AUVs
(autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year.
40
24
The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the
marine economy. It connects ports,
transportation methods, and companies, and
guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and
people. The development of the oceans as a
source of food, natural resources, and energy
increases the need for an expansion of offshore
infrastructures. Ever larger plants and platforms
at ever greater distances to the shore require
new foundations and basic structures. Innovative
technological solutions can significantly
contribute to a more cost efficient operation of
such plants. The demand for specialists to
transport and mount materials and components
on site will grow. The market for offshore supply
ships will grow from 69.3 billion US dollars in
2013 to 91.2 billion US dollars in 2018, which is
an increase of 50 percent.41
The offshore storage
of goods, natural resources, and energy on
specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring
great logistic advantages for loading and
unloading procedures.42
The expansion of an
underwater infrastructure for power cables will
be important to the energy transport, particularly
to the transport of renewable energies. Within
the next ten years, the number of underwater
high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of
300.43
As early as 2018, the longest underwater
power cable will connect Norway and Germany,
helping to level green power fluctuations.
Opportunities and challenges in the area of
marine economy boost numerous technological
developments. Maritime technologies are a
separate future market within the area of marine
economy. They are particularly important to the
fields of ship technology, energy mining, the
mining of natural resources, and the expansion
of maritime infrastructure. Additional applications
are in the areas of measurement, environment,
and security technology. Intelligent and
autonomous systems that can operate in great
depths are highly significant.44
The Canadian
start-up Nautilus Minerals, the South-Korean
Institute for Marine Science and Technology, and
the British company Seabed Resources want to
use highly modern robots to mine natural
resources in the deep sea.
Opportunities and Future Markets
robust
25Opportunities and Future Markets
Four qualities define the marine technology of the future.
45
intelligent
sustainable
autonomous
26
In the middle and long term, the trend towards
intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence
shipping as well. Similar to passenger vehicles or
trucks, scientists all over the world work on
concepts that are supposed to one day make it
possible that ships cross the oceans by
themselves. Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center
for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg
are developing related technology. The crew can
be replaced by a navigator on shore, who looks
after several boats at the same time. To make
unmanned shipping possible, new ship propulsion
technologies and concepts have to be developed
as well, because today’s engine technology
requires far too much maintenance.
46
Technical developments that make use of the
efficiency potential, reduce emissions and the
destructive influence on marine ecosystems are
becoming increasingly important, considering the
background of climate changes and new
regulations. Innovative marine technologies may
help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea
mining, maritime energy production, and more.
47
The greatest potential for successful positioning
in the future market of marine economy develops
in places where high technology and sustainable
concepts meet.
The shipping sector does not only research
increasingly efficient propulsion methods, but
also alternative propulsion methods. Liquid
natural gas – LNG – will become more significant
in the future. The American company Tote
Shipholdings Inc. has integrated the first dual-
fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG-
propelled container ship. The ship is supposed to
start operating in 2015.48
By 2030, international
ocean shipping could potentially be the largest
LNG consumer in the transport industry.49
The
industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop
this future market by expanding appropriate
LNG-infrastructures. Bio gas, bio diesel,
methanol, shore power, and hydrogen will most
likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or
niche transport. Hybrid solutions, however, might
prevail, in the long term at least. New and
powerful methods of energy storage are an
important prerequisite.50
Opportunities and Future Markets
27
Ergonomics, lightweight materials, and support
technologies can also contribute to more efficient
fuel use. SkySails, for example, is a wind
propulsion system for ships using a towing kite
that appropriates the potential of high winds on
high seas, thus enabling a reduction of fuel
consumption and emissions.51
The Norwegian
engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic
freighter with a hull shaped like a sail, which is
supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel.52
The
Japanese company Eco Marine Power has
developed solar sails for tankers and freighters
that are also supposed to help emissions.53
The
connection of specialized ship building and Green
Shipping will likely develop into an attractive
future market. Suppliers of high tech components
that distinguish themselves as leaders in
economical and sustainable technologies will
surely benefit.54
In addition to Green Shipping, the development
of offshore energies is an another important
building block in the segment of sustainable
opportunities in marine economy. The oceans will
not only serve as a source of power generated by
wind and wave energy, but also as energy
reservoir. Creating fluctuating renewable
energies urgently requires the development of
adequate energy reservoirs. As part of the
research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy
in the SEA), a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF
Solutions AG is in the process of testing the
concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant.
Excess charging current pumps out a concrete
hollow body, which, during the discharge
operation, is refilled with water via a turbine,
which operates a generator.55
The TU Vienna has
developed a method to store photovoltaic power
by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close
to the shore. The efficiency rate of the process is
supposed to be around 70 percent. A pilot plant
is in construction.56
Opportunities and Future Markets
Aquaculture, too, is beginning to focus on
sustainability. Industrial fish farms in particular
face heavy criticism, because fish excrements
overload marine biotopes. The Center for
Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore
conducts the project “Integrated Multitrophic
Aquaculture,” examining how different fish,
muscles, and algae can be raised in wind parks
without affecting the water quality. This bears
the advantage that wind park and aquaculture
cooperate on the same area and create high-
quality algae as a side product, which can be
used for cosmetic and medicinal applications.57
In the coming years, the shortage of drinking
water will continue to be an even greater issue in
many countries. Here, too, marine economy can
offer an important future market. Even today,
300 million people receive their drinking water
from the ocean. Between 2013 and 2018, the
global market for seawater desalinization will
grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 15.3
billion US dollars.58
In the future, desalinization
technologies that are energy efficient or based
upon renewable energies will become particularly
important.
Increasingly extreme weather events and rising
sea levels will lead to heavy investments in
coastal protection. Embankment expansions and
enforcements, land reclamation, and artificial
ridges are only a few examples of the ways
people are trying to control impending floods.
Countries like the Netherlands that have had to
deal with rising sea levels for a long time, have
begun to develop new strategies – ‘aqua-
architecture,’ for example. Innovative building
and apartment complexes show how, in the
future, people can live with the water. Europe’s
first drifting apartment complex, de Citadel
designed by the architectural offices
Waterstudio.NL, is being built near Den Haag,
consisting of 60 luxury apartments.59
Swimming
houses that fall or rise with the water level offer
new opportunities to the construction and real
estate industry in endangered areas. At the same
time, these projects show that humankind could
access and develop entirely new work and living
spaces.
28Opportunities and Future Markets
29
Worldwide, architects are developing visionary
concepts of creating new sustainable living space
in swimming cities at the shores of urban
centers. DeltaSync, for example, developed one
such concept: ‘Blue Revolution’ envisions a
swimming district located in front of the actual
metropolis, mainly serving the production of food
and bio fuel.60
The American Seasteading
Institute wants to create the first autonomous
swimming city with the ‘Floating City Project.’61
With the expansion of the offshore industry, the
oceans are already turning into work and living
spaces. The Prelude, which is currently being
built and supposed to take sail in 2015, will be
the world’s biggest ship with a length of 488
meters. Shell’s swimming offshore plant is
supposed to serve the mining, liquidation,
storage, and transport of natural gas, and will
provide room for 350 crew.62
Welcome: The 21st century is the era of marine
economy.
Opportunities and Future Markets
1
UNPD (2013): World Population Prospects: The
2012 Revision, Link, Publication Date: 2013, Date of
Download: 17.06.2013
2
University of Washington (2014): World population
to keep growing this century, hit 11 billion by 2100,
Link, Publication Date: 18.09.2014, Date of
Download: 19.09.2014
3
EIA (2014): International Energy Outlook 2013.
With Projections to 2040, Washington, D.C (Link)
4
United Nations University - EHS und Bündnis
Entwicklung Hilft (2014): WeltRisikoBericht 2014,
Bonn/Berlin (Link)
5
Europäische Kommission (2014): Europäischer Tag
der Meere zum Thema nachhaltiger Meerestourismus
und Vernetzung, Link, Publication Date: 17.05.2013,
Date of Download: 13.10.2014
6
KPMG (2013): Future State 2030. The global
megatrends shaping governments (Link)
7
HSBC (2014): Global exports to gather pace, Link,
Publication Date: 16.09.2014, Date of Download:
16.09.2014
8/16
Lloyd's Register et al. (2013): Global Marine
Trends 2030, London/Hampshire/Glasgow
9
Det Norske Veritas (2012): Shipping 2020, Oslo
(Link)
10
Transparency Market Research (2014): Global
Aquaculture Market is Expected to Reach USD 195.13
billion in 2019, Link, Publication Date: 12.06.2014,
Date of Download: 18.06.2014
11/15
Maribus (2014): World ocean review - Teil 3:
Rohstoffe aus dem Meer - Chancen und Risiken;
Hamburg (Link)
12
BDI (2014): Die Chancen des Tiefseebergbaus für
Deutschlands Rolle im Wettbewerb um Rohstoffe,
Berlin (Link)
13
ExxonMobil (2014): 2014 The Outlook for Energy:
A view to 2040, Irving (Link)
14
Nautilus Minerals (2014): Company Website, Link,
Publication Date: 2014, Date of Download:
14.10.2014
17
Spiegel Online (2013): Testbohrung: Japan fördert
Methanhydrat aus der Tiefsee, Link, Publication Date:
12.03.2013, Date of Download: 14.10.2014
18
GlobalData (2014): Global Offshore Wind Power
Market to Reach Almost 40 Gigawatts by 2020, says
GlobalData, Link, Publication Date: 16.09.2014, Date
of Download: 10.10.2014
19
Minesto (2014): Company Website, Link,
Publication Date: 2014, Date of Download:
14.10.2014
20
Roland Berger (2013): Offshore Wind Toward
2020. On the pathway to cost competiveness (Link)
21
Europäische Kommission (2012): Blaues
Wachstum. Chancen für nachhaltiges marines und
maritimes Wachstum, Brüssel (Link)
22
BREA (2014): The Global Economic Contribution of
Cruise Tourism 2013, Exton (Link)
23
Cruise Market Watch (2014): Growth of the Cruise
Line Industry, Link, Publication Date: 2014, Date of
Download: 15.09.2014
24
Ocean Shipping Consultants (2013): Strong Cruise
Demand Ahead, Dynamic Prospects for Ports, Link,
Publication Date: 2013, Date of Download:
16.09.2014
25
Deep Ocean Technology (2014): An Underwater
Hotel, Link, Publication Date: 2014, Date of
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26/36/38
Deutscher Bundestag (2013): Dritter Bericht der
Bundesregierung über die Entwicklung und
Zukunftsperspektiven der maritimen Wirtschaft in
Deutschland, Berlin (Link)
27
PwC (2014): Vernetzt auf hoher See – Deutsche
Reeder setzen auf moderne Flotten, Link, Publication
Date: 03.07.2014, Date of Download: 15.09.2014
28
Schröder, Daniela (2013): Das Tor zur Provinz,
Link, Publication Date: 13.10.2013, Date of
Download: 16.10.2014
29
n-tv.de (2014): Asiens Häfen sind der Maßstab,
Link, Publication Date: 18.08.2014, Date of
Download: 16.10.2014
30
Andersen, Ole (2014): Sulphur regulations cost
Hapag-Lloyd up to USD 270 million, Link, Publication
Date: 09.07.2014, Date of Download: 11.09.2014
31
IMO (2014): International Maritime Organization –
Regulation 14 "Air pollution - Sulphur Oxides", Link,
Publication Date: 2014, Date of Download:
17.10.2014
32/49
Wurster, R. et al. (2014): LNG als
Alternativkraftstoff für den Antrieb von Schiffen und
schweren Nutzfahrzeugen , München/ Ottobrunn,
Heidelberg, Berlin (Link)
33
PwC (2014): What are the prospects for global
trade growth? Global Economy Watch. October 2014
(Link)
34
MWP GmbH et al. (2013):
Seeverkehrsverflechtungsprognose 2030, Hamburg
(Link)
35
Europäische Kommission (2013): Europe's Seaports
2030: Challenges Ahead, Link, Publication Date:
23.05.2013, Date of Download: 20.10.2014
37
OECD (2011): Strategic Transport Infrastructure
Needs to 2030, Paris (Link)
39
WWF Deutschland (2013): Szenario für eine
Seehafenkooperation im Bereich des
Containerverkehrs, Berlin (Link)
40
Markets and Markets (2014): Unmanned
Underwater Vehicles Market by Product, Application,
Region & Country - Global Trends & Forecasts to
2014 - 2019, Link, Publication Date: 2014, Date of
Download: 20.10.2014
41
Markets and Markets (2013): Offshore Support
Vessel Market by Type & by Geography - Global
Trends & Forecast to 2018, Link, Publication Date:
2013, Date of Download: 21.10.2014
42
University of Tasmania (2014): Offshore warehouse
concept set to revolutionise transhipping industry,
Link, Publication Date: 27.05.2014, Date of
Download: 10.09.2014
43
Navigant Research (2013): Installed Submarine
Electricity Cables Will Surpass 300 Worldwide by
2023, Link, Publication Date: 25.11.2013, Date of
Download: 27.11.2013
44
Wynn, Russell B. et al. (2014): Autonomous
Underwater Vehicles (AUVs): Their past, present and
future contributions to the advancement of marine
geoscience, in: Marine Geology Volume 352, 1 June
2014, Pages 451–468 (Link)
45
BMWi (2011): Maritime Technologien der nächsten
Generation. Das Forschungsprogramm für Schiffbau,
Schifffahrt und Meerestechnik 2011-2015, Berlin
(Link)
46
Stoller, Detlev (2014): Containerschiffe sollen
automatisch und ohne Crew übers Meer steuern,
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vom Baur, Michael (2012): Marine Technologies -
an Ocean of Opportunities, Brussels (Link)
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erhält MAN-Motor, Link, Publication Date:
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50
DNV GL (2014): Alternative Fuels For Shipping,
Høvik (Link)
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SkySails (2014): Powerful – unlimited – free, Link,
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Maaß, Stephan (2014): Segelnder Frachter soll
Schifffahrt revolutionieren, Link, Publication Date:
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Eco Marine Power (2014): Company Website, Link,
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Mutschler, Jörg (2014): Maritime Zulieferindustrie
in Deutschland – Nachhaltigkeit als Chance für
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56
TU Wien (2014): Kann man Energie im Sand
speichern?, Link, Publication Date: 21.03.2014, Date
of Download: 28.10.2014
57
IMARE Institut für Marine Ressourcen GmbH
(2014): Zentrum für Aquakulturforschung – ZAF,
Link, Publication Date: 2014, Date of Download:
28.10.2014
58
Markets and Markets (2014): Water Desalination
Equipment Market worth $15,274 Million By 2018,
Link, Publication Date: 30.04.2014, Date of
Download: 30.04.2014
59
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Städte, Link, Publication Date: 30.03.2014, Date of
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Project (Link)
62
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2014, Date of Download: 22.10.2014
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32
Bernd Hinrichs
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well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG
Contact:
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About the FutureManagementGroup AG
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The Future is blue

  • 1. The Future is Blue Future Markets in Marine Economy Market Foresights No. 4 / 2014
  • 2. 2 Contents Introduction Page 3-6 01 Future Developments in Marine Economy Growing Maritime Trade Growing Usage of Maritime Resources Growing Maritime Power Production Growing Maritime Tourism Page 7-14 02 Intensifying Competition and New Challenges Intensifying Competition Cost of Fuel, Environmental Stressors, and New Regulations Page 15-20 03 Opportunities and Future Markets Growing Port Industry Maritime Technologies and Development of Infrastructures Sustainable Marine Economy and Shipbuilding Innovations Maritime Work and Living Spaces Food from the Sea and Saltwater Desalination Page 21-29 References Page 30
  • 3. Introduction 3 The consumption of natural resources increases with the growth of the world population. According to current prognoses, the population will keep growing until the end of this century at least. By the year 2100, the number of people inhabiting the world will have grown from almost seven billion today to up to eleven billion.1/2 The hunger and need for energy grows without restraint. In the future, more people will use more energy per capita. This is mostly because the standard of living in developing and emerging countries will align with that in the western world. By 2040, the global demand for energy will increase by more than 50 percent compared to 2010, despite continuously increasing energy efficiency. 3 In the new emerging economic regions, the demand for high quality foods and consumable goods is growing along with the income. A shortage, inaccessibility, or finality of resources could lead to bottlenecks or leaping price increases with some natural reserves such as crude oil or high-tech metals. A shortage of drinking water and food will, in some regions, increase the danger of conflicts over land and water distribution. Against this background, alternative and innovative resources become more and more significant and valuable. Corporations and countries alike focus more and more on access to new, thus far economically unattractive storage methods and power sources, and it is likely that these efforts will intensify in the medium and long term. The oceans of the world promise to be a nearly inexhaustible resource. Within the next years and decades, management of marine resources will increase greatly. Ecological risks and technical hurdles still hamper fast and ready access of maritime resources. Extreme conditions in the deep sea, for example, pose high demands on mining methods and technical equipment. At the same time, demands grow loud to sustainably use the oceans as a resource, so that we may benefit from marine reserves in the long term and can guarantee our survival beyond the 21st century.
  • 4. 4Einführung 40 percent of the world population lives in coastal and delta regions, and the tendency is growing. The consequences of climate changes will pose great challenges, particularly to cities. 4
  • 5. 5 Without a doubt, one of the greatest challenges facing marine economy is to avoid over-using the oceans as a source of food, resources, power, and drinking water (by desalination) or as traffic, work, and living space. The reduction of fish stock, the warming of oceans by greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the stress placed on marine ecosystems by pollutants and plastic waste are only a few examples demonstrating that the oceans are endangered already. At the same time, these dangers offer opportunities, for example, in the area of environmental technologies. Within marine economy, the area of sustainable marine economy will become a multi-billion-market. Making the oceans accessible as a resource requires a continuous development of the maritime infrastructure. This is a significant future market for ship, machine, and plant manufacturing companies. The oceans will also become more and more significant as transport area. As a result of the ever growing globalization and changing spare time behaviors, the growing need for the transportation of goods and passengers offers opportunities for companies involved in the marine traffic and port industries. Developing coastal regions and a growing environmentally responsible ocean tourism promise “blue” growth as well. Tourism, the largest sector of the maritime industry, creates more than two million jobs in the European Union and generates an added value of more than 100 billion Euro a year.5 In the future, the oceans and coastal regions will be both work and living spaces for a growing percentage of the world population. Hundreds of millions of people live on land located less than five meters above sea level, and the tendency is growing. Many of these rapidly growing mega- cities expand in coastal and delta regions. There, the ocean is not just an economic factor, but, due to global warming, a threat as well. Rising sea levels and increasingly extreme weather will result in higher financial expenditures and innovative technological methodology in the segment of flood protection for coastal regions. Introduction
  • 6. 6 Future Markets in Marine Economy Sustainable Marine Economy Growing Port Industry Growing Usage of Maritime Resources Growing Maritime Power Production Development of Maritime Infrastructures Maritime Technologies Innovations in Shipbuilding Maritime Work and Living SpacesMarine Economy Growing Maritime Tourism
  • 8. 8 Which Trends Influence the Future of Marine Economy? Shortage of Resources Climate ChangesRising Demand for Food Globalization Growth of Global Population New Economic Powers Urbanization Shortage of Oil Energy Innovations Demand for ExperiencesEcological Sustainability Automation/Robotization
  • 9. 9 Global trade will keep growing, driven by forces such as the continuing globalization and the development of a broad and spend-happy middle class in the emerging economic regions. While today about 60 percent of the global middle class live in the developing and emerging countries, by the year 2030, it will be about 80 percent.6 In the same time period, world trade will grow an average of eight percent per year.7 Marine trade will more than double from today‘s nine billion tons to 19 to 24 billion tons in the year 2030.8 Logistics companies, port management, ship builders and their suppliers will benefit from growing container traffic. Following the over capacity due to the economic crisis, the demand for new ships will grow by the year 2020.9 In addition, the average transport capacity and size of container chips will keep growing. To save costs, the ships’ fuel efficiency and technical equipment must improve continuously. Networking and automation are fields that will become particularly significant. Future Developments in Marine Economy
  • 10. 10Future Developments in Marine Economy The ocean holds huge resources, from protein- rich fish to crude oil, gas, and methane hydrate, as well as economically interesting minerals and metals. Biological resources are also useful, in fields such as cosmetics and medication. By the year 2030, food production will have to increase by 50 percent to cover the growing need of the world population. Protecting the oceans as one of the most important food sources will be a particularly significant task, because overfishing of some fish stock is already an issue today. Products from wild catches are being replaced by aquaculture, i.e. controlled breeding. Between 2012 and 2019, the global market for aquaculture will grow by almost 50 percent to a total of 195 billion.10 This development has a particularly negative impact on developing countries, where people’s livelihood is directly or indirectly dependent on fishing, or where nutritional resources diminish by continued overfishing. Should fish stock be further decimated in the future, fishing regulations might tighten and quotas intensify considerably. In the medium and long term, increasing commodity prices will make deep sea mining attractive. In the future, ore in form of manganese modules, cobalt crusts, and massive sulfides will be mined as far as 4000 meters below the surface.11 Particularly manganese modules, which are rich in non-ferrous metals, provide high hopes, because these metals are used for the production of of modern high-tech products such as smart phones, solar cells, wind power plants, or electric vehicles. Sustainable mining, which is to say mining that will not put too much strain on the ecosystem of the ocean floor, will provide a great challenge. If we wish to safeguard our resources in the long term, the mining of marine mineral resources is of strategic importance. Access to and research of these resources are regulated by the International Seabed Authority of the United Nations. The rules for commercial mining have not yet been defined.12
  • 11. Between 2010 and 2040, the amount of oil mined in the deep sea will increase by more than 150 percent. 13 11Future Developments in Marine Economy
  • 12. Future Developments in Marine Economy 12 Nautilus Minerals from Canada is the first company planning the mining of massive sulfides from the seabed.14 Germany owns research licenses for two areas in the Pacific. The future of energy production also lies in the oceans. Globally, about one third of natural gas and oil is mined in the ocean, and the tendency is increasing.15 The dependence of the global economy on fossil fuels has risen to a precarious level. Almost all industrialized countries have to import oil to cover their needs. While the global use of oil keeps growing quickly, experts fear that the maximum might be reached soon. The mining of new power sources, which thus far are not economically viable, and the development of new mining technologies are becoming more significant. In order to mine oil and gas in the deep sea, swimming platforms, for example, will be needed. Between 2010 and 2030, their number will more than double to a total of 600 world wide.16 In the future, plants that can operate directly on the seabed at depths of several thousand meters will likely play an increased role as well. Suitable technologies could revolutionize the offshore mining of natural gas and oil and be far more cost effective than today's platform-based plants. One of the largest fossil energy sources is methane hydrate. Countries investing most on researching this energy source are Japan and the USA. In 2013, Japanese scientists were able to mine gas stored one kilometer below sea level and buried more than 300 meters deep in the seabed. Commercial mining is supposed to commence by 2018. Offshore methane hydrate resources could provide Japan with energy for more than 100 years.17 There are still technological hurdles to overcome. In addition, mining harbors geological and ecological risks. In addition to providing a large supply of energy sources, the oceans are also an energy source itself. Energy from wave, tide, and current power plants will become a more significant part of the regenerative energy mix. The future market marine energy is interesting for established plant manufacturers as well as for innovative start-ups.
  • 13. 13 Between 2013 and 2020, the power from offshore wind energy will more than quintuple to about 40 gigawatts world wide. 18 Future Developments in Marine Economy
  • 14. 14 The Finnish company Minesto, for example, developed ‘Deep Green’, an undersea kite tethered to the seabed, which moves with the ocean current, thus creating energy via a turbine and a generator.19 Offshore wind power will grow to become one of the largest segments in the market for renewable energies. Germany’s energy concept plans an increase in this area up to 25.000 MW by 2030. Between 2013 and 2020, investments in Europe’s wind power will more than double to a total of 14 billion Euro. By 2020, global investments in offshore wind power will rise to 130 billion.20 Maritime tourism will become more significant as well. Today, about 2.4 million people work in the field of coastal and ocean tourism, of which 150,000 work in the cruise industry.21 In the past few years, this market has experienced an enormous boom. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of passengers rose from 12 million to 21.3 million world wide, a total growth of 77 percent.22 By 2018, the number of passengers will increase by an additional three million to a total of 24.1 million.23 In 2025, experts expect passenger traffic of 36.4 million.24 Providers have to expand their fleets. The German shipbuilding industry will profit. The trend toward experience travel will increase the demand for specialized tourism (fun, sports, adventure, wellness, etc.). Within the premium travel segment, mobile islands, underwater hotels and submarine travel could be an interesting growth market. The company Deep Ocean Technology, for example, develops technologies for underwater hotels. The hotel room segments can be lowered up to 30 meters below sea level. Plans to implement such a prestigious project are already in existence.25 Future Developments in Marine Economy
  • 16. 16 The competition for the economic usage of maritime space and coastal regions will intensify. For example, offshore wind park operators compete with fisheries for space, neighboring states in the Arctic fiercely compete for resources, at least beyond the 200 mile zone, and cruise ship companies fight for the best berths and mooring times in the most attractive port cities. To the extent that the oceans become more and more attractive, because new technologies make the oceans a more efficient and comprehensive fountain of food, resources and energy, countries and corporations will increase their investments and activities to develop and access this potential. Considering the continuous population growth and the increasing shortages of resources, in a worst case scenario, unresolved or overlapping territorial claims could turn violent and provoke political conflict. For example, China and other neighboring countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines, lay claim on the South China Sea, where experts assume large sources of raw materials. Marine economy, particularly ocean trade, is strongly tied to the ups and downs of the world economy. The world wide financial crisis had led to a significantly reduced demand for shipping space as well as cancellations and decreased orders for new ships. Due to overcapacities in the container ship building industry, particularly in Asia, the German ship building industry had to restructure and refocus, building offshore- oriented specialty ships instead of container ships.26 The question is, how long will it take for suppliers from emerging countries, particularly from China, to enter the market for tailor-made ships, and offer them at lower costs. There are dramatic changes in the balance of the world economy. Developing and emerging countries will provide an ever larger portion of the workforce, capital, technology, and trade volume. By 2050, experts predict growth beyond average for the BRIC states. Their share of the global social product will grow significantly. Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
  • 17. 17Intensifying Competition and New Challenges 60 percent of German ship owners do not expect a short term recovery of the world wide shipping markets. 27
  • 18. As soon as ten years from now, China might replace the United States as the largest national economy in the world. Today, China is already the largest container market. In addition, Chinese banks could push into the market of ship financing, while German banks reduced their involvement in this sector following the financial crises. In the future, German ship owners, interested in investing might be forced to seek financing from Chinese banks. This could have a negative impact on the German supplier industry. The competition between individual ports will also intensify in the future. Because container ships tend to become ever larger, ever fewer central ports will handle an ever growing portion of the sea trade. For example, within the next few years, Hamburg could lose a portion of its container business to the JadeWeser port in Wilhelmshaven, which offers a larger depth that is independent of the tides and therefore attractive to giant freighters.28 International relations change, too. While Hamburg used to be among the largest container ports in the world, today it ranks only in 16th place. By now, six of the top ten ports in the world are in China.29 Increasing fuel costs also pose great challenges to maritime traffic. Although we seem to have skirted the issue of ‘Peak Oil,’ i.e. reaching the mining maximum, by the expansion and increased economic viability of unconventional oil mining methods (‘fracking’), fact is, the new oil boom likely only defers the problem to a later time. There are no clear predictions, since a decrease of conventional oil mining will result in higher investments in research and development of unconventional oil resources. The danger remains that prices for oil and heavy oil will increase continuously, or at the very least, be volatile. In addition, modernizing refineries will result in a lower production of heavy oil as a co- product although the demand will keep rising. For several years now, ship owners have tried to reduce fuel consumption and thus costs with slower speeds, i.e. with slow-steaming-strategies. 18Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
  • 19. 19 Sustainability is becoming ever more significant in all trades. The discussion of climate protection involves marine traffic as well. Due to new environmental regulations, the shipping industry will face major challenges in the coming years. Increased restrictions that limit the emission of harmful substances will require the use of expensive fuels or investment in new filtering and propulsion technologies. Among other things, this will lead to additional cost increases for container freight.30 In 2008, the International Maritime Organization IMO defined the new limits for sulfur and nitric oxide, prescribing a decrease of the sulfur content in oil based fuels from the current 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent by 2020. In emission control areas, an even stricter limit of 1.0 percent is in effect, which is to be reduced to 0.1 percent by 2015.31 Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
  • 20. 20 Starting in 2020/2025, ocean ships may no longer cruise the oceans without costly post-cleaning efforts. This requires that ocean shipping switches to marine diesel oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG). 32 Intensifying Competition and New Challenges
  • 22. 22 Economic globalization will continue in the coming years. Adjusted for price, the value of the world wide trade of goods will grow from ten billion US dollars in 2013 to 18 billion US dollars in 2030.33 This development will benefit the port industry, too. This industry includes all activities involved in the value creation process of loading and unloading goods as well as the transfer of ship and ferry passengers. Between 2010 and 2030, the volume will rise by 2.8 percent a year to a total of 468 tons. Ports at the North Sea will grow faster than those at the Baltic Sea.34 By 2030, the freight volume in ports will grow by 50 percent within the European Union.35 Improving site conditions will become ever more important for the individual ports: for example, increased efficiency, expanded loading surfaces, or optimal infrastructure connections to trucks and train. The German government focuses current investments on the expansion of seaward access roads as well as effective inland connections.36 Globally, the need for investments in port city infrastructure will rise to around 40 billion Euro a year by 2030. 37 Ports will also benefit from the growth of marine power production. For example, ports will play an increasingly central role in the value chain of offshore wind energy. There are future opportunities in the fields of montage, transfer and service.38 However, ports will have to invest heavily to be able to expand their capacities accordingly. The significance of automation and safety technologies will increase due to the growing transfer volume. Intelligent platforms based on data that create a network of all actors involved in the port economy promise additional efficiency. To guarantee international competitiveness, the cooperation between individual ports might become increasingly relevant. In 2013, the WWF offered a study of the cooperation between ports in Northern Germany to improve the port location Germany.39 Opportunities and Future Markets
  • 23. 23Opportunities and Future Markets By the year 2019, the global market of ROVs (remotely operated vehicles) will have grown by 20 percent per year, the market for AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles) by 32 percent per year. 40
  • 24. 24 The maritime infrastructure is the basis of the marine economy. It connects ports, transportation methods, and companies, and guarantees a smooth transfer of goods and people. The development of the oceans as a source of food, natural resources, and energy increases the need for an expansion of offshore infrastructures. Ever larger plants and platforms at ever greater distances to the shore require new foundations and basic structures. Innovative technological solutions can significantly contribute to a more cost efficient operation of such plants. The demand for specialists to transport and mount materials and components on site will grow. The market for offshore supply ships will grow from 69.3 billion US dollars in 2013 to 91.2 billion US dollars in 2018, which is an increase of 50 percent.41 The offshore storage of goods, natural resources, and energy on specialized multi-purpose platforms could bring great logistic advantages for loading and unloading procedures.42 The expansion of an underwater infrastructure for power cables will be important to the energy transport, particularly to the transport of renewable energies. Within the next ten years, the number of underwater high voltage cables will almost triple to a total of 300.43 As early as 2018, the longest underwater power cable will connect Norway and Germany, helping to level green power fluctuations. Opportunities and challenges in the area of marine economy boost numerous technological developments. Maritime technologies are a separate future market within the area of marine economy. They are particularly important to the fields of ship technology, energy mining, the mining of natural resources, and the expansion of maritime infrastructure. Additional applications are in the areas of measurement, environment, and security technology. Intelligent and autonomous systems that can operate in great depths are highly significant.44 The Canadian start-up Nautilus Minerals, the South-Korean Institute for Marine Science and Technology, and the British company Seabed Resources want to use highly modern robots to mine natural resources in the deep sea. Opportunities and Future Markets
  • 25. robust 25Opportunities and Future Markets Four qualities define the marine technology of the future. 45 intelligent sustainable autonomous
  • 26. 26 In the middle and long term, the trend towards intelligent (partial) autonomy could influence shipping as well. Similar to passenger vehicles or trucks, scientists all over the world work on concepts that are supposed to one day make it possible that ships cross the oceans by themselves. Scientists in the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and Services in Hamburg are developing related technology. The crew can be replaced by a navigator on shore, who looks after several boats at the same time. To make unmanned shipping possible, new ship propulsion technologies and concepts have to be developed as well, because today’s engine technology requires far too much maintenance. 46 Technical developments that make use of the efficiency potential, reduce emissions and the destructive influence on marine ecosystems are becoming increasingly important, considering the background of climate changes and new regulations. Innovative marine technologies may help minimize the ecological footprint of deep sea mining, maritime energy production, and more. 47 The greatest potential for successful positioning in the future market of marine economy develops in places where high technology and sustainable concepts meet. The shipping sector does not only research increasingly efficient propulsion methods, but also alternative propulsion methods. Liquid natural gas – LNG – will become more significant in the future. The American company Tote Shipholdings Inc. has integrated the first dual- fuel-low-speed-engine into the first LNG- propelled container ship. The ship is supposed to start operating in 2015.48 By 2030, international ocean shipping could potentially be the largest LNG consumer in the transport industry.49 The industrial gas specialist Linde plans to develop this future market by expanding appropriate LNG-infrastructures. Bio gas, bio diesel, methanol, shore power, and hydrogen will most likely play a larger role in short distance traffic or niche transport. Hybrid solutions, however, might prevail, in the long term at least. New and powerful methods of energy storage are an important prerequisite.50 Opportunities and Future Markets
  • 27. 27 Ergonomics, lightweight materials, and support technologies can also contribute to more efficient fuel use. SkySails, for example, is a wind propulsion system for ships using a towing kite that appropriates the potential of high winds on high seas, thus enabling a reduction of fuel consumption and emissions.51 The Norwegian engineer Terje Lade has designed a futuristic freighter with a hull shaped like a sail, which is supposed to save up to 60 percent of fuel.52 The Japanese company Eco Marine Power has developed solar sails for tankers and freighters that are also supposed to help emissions.53 The connection of specialized ship building and Green Shipping will likely develop into an attractive future market. Suppliers of high tech components that distinguish themselves as leaders in economical and sustainable technologies will surely benefit.54 In addition to Green Shipping, the development of offshore energies is an another important building block in the segment of sustainable opportunities in marine economy. The oceans will not only serve as a source of power generated by wind and wave energy, but also as energy reservoir. Creating fluctuating renewable energies urgently requires the development of adequate energy reservoirs. As part of the research project called STENSEA (Stored Energy in the SEA), a consortium led by the HOCHTIEF Solutions AG is in the process of testing the concept of an ocean-pump-reservoir-plant. Excess charging current pumps out a concrete hollow body, which, during the discharge operation, is refilled with water via a turbine, which operates a generator.55 The TU Vienna has developed a method to store photovoltaic power by pressurized air and sand on the seabed close to the shore. The efficiency rate of the process is supposed to be around 70 percent. A pilot plant is in construction.56 Opportunities and Future Markets
  • 28. Aquaculture, too, is beginning to focus on sustainability. Industrial fish farms in particular face heavy criticism, because fish excrements overload marine biotopes. The Center for Aquaculture Research in Bremerhaven therefore conducts the project “Integrated Multitrophic Aquaculture,” examining how different fish, muscles, and algae can be raised in wind parks without affecting the water quality. This bears the advantage that wind park and aquaculture cooperate on the same area and create high- quality algae as a side product, which can be used for cosmetic and medicinal applications.57 In the coming years, the shortage of drinking water will continue to be an even greater issue in many countries. Here, too, marine economy can offer an important future market. Even today, 300 million people receive their drinking water from the ocean. Between 2013 and 2018, the global market for seawater desalinization will grow by more than 50 percent to a total of 15.3 billion US dollars.58 In the future, desalinization technologies that are energy efficient or based upon renewable energies will become particularly important. Increasingly extreme weather events and rising sea levels will lead to heavy investments in coastal protection. Embankment expansions and enforcements, land reclamation, and artificial ridges are only a few examples of the ways people are trying to control impending floods. Countries like the Netherlands that have had to deal with rising sea levels for a long time, have begun to develop new strategies – ‘aqua- architecture,’ for example. Innovative building and apartment complexes show how, in the future, people can live with the water. Europe’s first drifting apartment complex, de Citadel designed by the architectural offices Waterstudio.NL, is being built near Den Haag, consisting of 60 luxury apartments.59 Swimming houses that fall or rise with the water level offer new opportunities to the construction and real estate industry in endangered areas. At the same time, these projects show that humankind could access and develop entirely new work and living spaces. 28Opportunities and Future Markets
  • 29. 29 Worldwide, architects are developing visionary concepts of creating new sustainable living space in swimming cities at the shores of urban centers. DeltaSync, for example, developed one such concept: ‘Blue Revolution’ envisions a swimming district located in front of the actual metropolis, mainly serving the production of food and bio fuel.60 The American Seasteading Institute wants to create the first autonomous swimming city with the ‘Floating City Project.’61 With the expansion of the offshore industry, the oceans are already turning into work and living spaces. The Prelude, which is currently being built and supposed to take sail in 2015, will be the world’s biggest ship with a length of 488 meters. Shell’s swimming offshore plant is supposed to serve the mining, liquidation, storage, and transport of natural gas, and will provide room for 350 crew.62 Welcome: The 21st century is the era of marine economy. Opportunities and Future Markets
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  • 33. Bernd Hinrichs Partner and Leader FutureMarkets-Center Money and Provision as well as Finance within the FutureManagementGroup AG Contact: HB@FutureManagementGroup.com +49 - (0) 173 – 34 69 841 About the FutureManagementGroup AG For management teams, we recognize, explore and develop opportunities in future markets. Thus, we provide competitive advantage by development and growth, secure the existence of employees and employers and increase the attractiveness of their company. www.FutureManagementGroup.com Imprint © FutureManagementGroup AG, 2014 Wallufer Straße 3a D-65343 Eltville Tel: +49 (0)6123 60109 – 0 Fax: +49 (0)6123 60109 - 29 office@futuremanagementgroup.com www.FutureManagementGroup.com Board of Directors: Dr. Pero Mićić (Chairman), Martin Ruesch Chairman of the Board: Prof. Dr. Peter Mettler Registry Court: Amtsgericht Wiesbaden Registration Number: HRB 17918 Tax Id: DE 227 644 650 Images and Illustrations © iStock FutureManagementGroup AG The images and illustrations used in this document are protected by copyright. If you wish to use these materials, please contact the copyright owner. ISSN: 2363-6734