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Oportunidades de P&D para
avanço em cadeias de valor
João Fernando Gomes de Oliveira
Academia Brasileira de Ciências, EESC, USP
FFHC, Agosto de 2018
The Basic Materials Instability
Raw materials are going through an average price rise
Basic materials issues
Regional dispersion is faster and more unpredictable
Basic materials issues
The Bouncing effect
global prices rebound are quicker than global output
Sources: (1) IMF Primary Commodity Prices @: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx
(2) The World Bank national accounts data @: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2016&start=2007
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP and Commodities Indexes since 2005
Global commodities index (100% in 2005) (1)
World GDP% (100% in 2005) (2)
72%
28%
Basic materials issues
Manufacturing Industry is getting into a quite critical moment
Basic Materials+Cost+Expenses
Present Future
Product Market Price
High Stress in Industry:
Search for Productivity
Industry 4.0, Advanced
Manufacturing, Lean, etc.
Past
$
D
D
D = Value oscilation due to exchange rate
Margin
Basic materials issues
Realidade Brasileira: Exemplos - Sax e conexão
$ = $
Fusão
Fundição
usinagem
Examples of Tech Revolution
Ev’s and Hybrid Manufacturing: a new world in materials demand
Car electrification
Avicenne Energy
2017 forecast
Avicenne Energy
2018 forecast
The simplicity of Electric Propulsion
Number de Parts (power train):
Combustion power train・・・10,000 to 30,000 Electric・・・around 200
ICE Vehicle
Motor
•Cylinder Head
•Cylinder Block
•Piston
•Connecting Rod
•Camshaft
•Rocker arm
•Crankshaft
•Valves, seats,
etc.
Transmission
•AT or CVT and
torque converter
•or MT and clutch
•Differential
Exhaust
system
•Exhaust manifold
•Pre-muffler
•Turbocharger
Lubrication
system
•Oil pump
•Filter
Start system
Battery charge
Break
•Hydraulic device
•Brake booster
Ignition
System
•Ignition coil
•Distributer
Admission
system
•Air cleaner
•Throttle
valve
•Resonator
Combustio
n system
•Fuel tank
•Filter
•Injector
Electric Vehicle
Charging system
E. Motor
Electric brakes
Compressor
electric
Electric Pump
Fixed
Transmission
Car electrification
Avicenne Energy
2018 forecast
New coming drivers on EV growth
• Chinese new economy:
• no longer infrastructure-driven,
• based on new tech,
• low environmental impact.
• E-buses are priority from now (all buses in China should be electric):
Shenzhen have already 16k e-buses.
• 5% of EV production share in 2020 and 30% in 2030.
• China wants to be ”The Driver” in the EV business
• New EV production predictions are always bullish
Car electrification
Recursos
naturais:
capacidade
remanescente de
suprimento e
reciclagem
18Strictly private and confidential
Densities
Nb - 8.57 g/cm3
W- 19.25 g/cm3
Ti - 4.506 g/cm3
CBMM-TOSHIBA-SOJITZ Joint Development Agreement – June 2018
[At the Signing Ceremony for the Joint Development Agreement]
From left to right: Toshiba Infrastructure Systems’ Director Shun Egusa,
CBMM’s CTO Marcos Stuart, and Sojitz EO Masaaki Bito
PRESS RELEASE SENT TO FOLLOWING NEWS PAPERS AND MEDIA :
- Nihon Keizai Shimbun
- Asahi Shimbun
- Mainichi Shimbun
- Yomiuri Shimbun
- Sankei Shimbun
- Tokyo Shimbun
- Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun
- Japan Chemical Diary
- Denki Shimbun
- Jiji Press
- Thomson Reuters
- Bloomberg
- Nippon Hoso Kyokai
- Nippon Television
- Fuji Television
- Tokyo Broadcasting System
- TV TOKYO
- NNA etc.
However AM will not provide finished parts
so, we will need Hybrid processes (Additive + Finishing)
• https://youtu.be/24VmCzT12mk
Advanced Manufacturing Processes
New materials and light structures
Relevance of materials along human existence
New materials and light structures
We urgently need a faster R&D
model
The example of EMBRAPII
Exemplos de Instituições de C&T&I para
Impacto Econômico/Social
• Alemanha - Sistema Fraunhofer: faz a ponte do conhecimento
das universidades para articular com as empresas
(principalmente as médias empresas) em busca de inovação
• França – Carnot Institutes: Rede de institutos com a missão de
articular pesquisadores e empresas em torno de projetos
demandados pelas empresas ou pelo mercado.
• UK – Catapult: Sistema de institutos de pesquisa voltado para
atender demandas industriais.
• EUA - FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
CENTERS – FFRDC’s: Agrupamentos institucionais (envolvendo
empresas) que recebem missões específicas do governo, de
interesse público e da nação.
• Brasil – EMBRAPII: Rede de unidades de pesquisa com vocação
para projetos integrados de inovação, fomentada com recursos
federais.
The EMBRAPII System
Lab or Research
Department or Group
integrated by a well
defined competence
EMBRAPII
Proposal of Afiliation including a Action Plan
(business plan)
- Definition of competece profille
- Technical team and leadership structure
- Track record in cooperation with industry
- IP Policy
- Vision with future revenue from industry
- Values for pre-defined EMBRAPII
indicators
If approved, becames a
EMBRAPII Unit:
- EMBRAPII pays in advance
- Very detailed and close follow-
up is started
The EMBRAPII System: Operation
EMBRAPII Unit (EU)
May co-finance salaries,
electricity etc.
Innovation
Results EMBRAPII
Continous follow
up of the EU by
EMBRAPII
-Contracts
-Financial helth
-IP
-Other KPI’s
EU prospect
clients,
evaluate and
hire R&D&I
with Industry
Enterprises pays
a minimum of 1/3
of the project
costs
EMBRAPII
pays 1/3 of
the all its UE
expenses
Unidades EMBRAPII e PEIF
CNPEM
Fundação
CERTI
UFSC Polo
Senai
Polímeros IPT
CEEI UFGC Senai CIMATEC
UFRGS LAMEF
CPqD
IF Bahia
IF Espirito
Santo
IF Minas Gerais
IF CearáDCC UFMG FEMEC UFU Cesar
REMA
Inatel
USP Poli
Eldorado
IPT Bio
EMBRAPA
INT
IF Fluminense
Tecgraf
COPPE
CQMED
CSEM
Senai Joinville
ESALQIFSC
INDT
TecnoGreen
LACTEC
Funil de negociação:
Prospecção X Contrato
(acumulado 06/06/2017)
Companies
conceptual
proposals
Proposals
with
work plan
and costs
Hired
Projects2230
1001 773
256
Prospections
(visits and
meetings)
4586
Empresas parceiras
Empresas parceiras
Empresas parceiras
Recent contracted values for the main non-
reimbursable innovation funding programs in Brazil
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014 2015 2016 2017
Signed contracts/year or paid values/year for major non-reimbursable
innovation funding programs in Brazilin R$ Millions
EMBRAPII (1) Fapesp PIPE (2) BNDES FUNTEC(3) Finep Subvenção (4)
Obs. & sources:
(1) - value of contracts signed,
Embrapii started its operation
in 2014. Source: EMBRAPII
Management System.
(2) - paid values, Source: “PIPE
20 anos” book. Obs: 2017
refer-se only to YTD - May
2017.
(3) - value of contracts signed,
source: Souza E., et all,
Avaliação do BNDES Funtec:
uma análise sistêmica de
efetividade, Revista do
BNDES, 45, pp 67-97, Jun 2016
(4) - paid values. Source:
Relatório de Gestão Finep
2017 - table 10, pag. 55
Contratos anuais por Unidade
Pesquisadores com Salário EMBRAPII
Return of companies to joint R&D projects with EMBRAPII
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Bematech
BG do Brasil
BRPhotonics
Compalead BR
Energy System BR
Foxconn Brasil
HP do Brasil
Idea Sistemas
Oxiteno
Proquality
CSN
Ingenico
Siemens Brasil
Ericson
Vale
Acelor Mital
Whirpool/EMBRACO
Embraer
Grupo Votorantim
number of contracs
Many other companies
have returned for a
second or third contract
with EMBRAPII Units.
The numbers are:
 14 different industries
have contracted 3
times and,
 29 different industries
have contracted
twice.
Impacto do sistema EMBRAPII nas Unidades de
Pesquisa
Impacto no IPT
(receita com projetos e serviços)
R$ 0.28
R$ 1.58
R$ 7.61
R$ 17.31
R$ 19.80
R$ 0.00
R$ 5.00
R$ 10.00
R$ 15.00
R$ 20.00
R$ 25.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
R$Milhões
BNDES Embrapii FINEP Outras fontes P&D Serviços Tecnológicos
Thanks/Obrigado

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Os Desafios da Indústria Mineral Brasileira - João Fernando Gomes de Oliveira

  • 1. Oportunidades de P&D para avanço em cadeias de valor João Fernando Gomes de Oliveira Academia Brasileira de Ciências, EESC, USP FFHC, Agosto de 2018
  • 2. The Basic Materials Instability
  • 3. Raw materials are going through an average price rise Basic materials issues
  • 4.
  • 5. Regional dispersion is faster and more unpredictable Basic materials issues
  • 6. The Bouncing effect global prices rebound are quicker than global output Sources: (1) IMF Primary Commodity Prices @: http://www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.aspx (2) The World Bank national accounts data @: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2016&start=2007 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP and Commodities Indexes since 2005 Global commodities index (100% in 2005) (1) World GDP% (100% in 2005) (2) 72% 28% Basic materials issues
  • 7. Manufacturing Industry is getting into a quite critical moment Basic Materials+Cost+Expenses Present Future Product Market Price High Stress in Industry: Search for Productivity Industry 4.0, Advanced Manufacturing, Lean, etc. Past $ D D D = Value oscilation due to exchange rate Margin Basic materials issues
  • 8. Realidade Brasileira: Exemplos - Sax e conexão $ = $ Fusão Fundição usinagem
  • 9. Examples of Tech Revolution Ev’s and Hybrid Manufacturing: a new world in materials demand
  • 12. The simplicity of Electric Propulsion Number de Parts (power train): Combustion power train・・・10,000 to 30,000 Electric・・・around 200 ICE Vehicle Motor •Cylinder Head •Cylinder Block •Piston •Connecting Rod •Camshaft •Rocker arm •Crankshaft •Valves, seats, etc. Transmission •AT or CVT and torque converter •or MT and clutch •Differential Exhaust system •Exhaust manifold •Pre-muffler •Turbocharger Lubrication system •Oil pump •Filter Start system Battery charge Break •Hydraulic device •Brake booster Ignition System •Ignition coil •Distributer Admission system •Air cleaner •Throttle valve •Resonator Combustio n system •Fuel tank •Filter •Injector Electric Vehicle Charging system E. Motor Electric brakes Compressor electric Electric Pump Fixed Transmission Car electrification
  • 14. New coming drivers on EV growth • Chinese new economy: • no longer infrastructure-driven, • based on new tech, • low environmental impact. • E-buses are priority from now (all buses in China should be electric): Shenzhen have already 16k e-buses. • 5% of EV production share in 2020 and 30% in 2030. • China wants to be ”The Driver” in the EV business • New EV production predictions are always bullish Car electrification
  • 15.
  • 17.
  • 18. 18Strictly private and confidential Densities Nb - 8.57 g/cm3 W- 19.25 g/cm3 Ti - 4.506 g/cm3
  • 19. CBMM-TOSHIBA-SOJITZ Joint Development Agreement – June 2018 [At the Signing Ceremony for the Joint Development Agreement] From left to right: Toshiba Infrastructure Systems’ Director Shun Egusa, CBMM’s CTO Marcos Stuart, and Sojitz EO Masaaki Bito PRESS RELEASE SENT TO FOLLOWING NEWS PAPERS AND MEDIA : - Nihon Keizai Shimbun - Asahi Shimbun - Mainichi Shimbun - Yomiuri Shimbun - Sankei Shimbun - Tokyo Shimbun - Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun - Japan Chemical Diary - Denki Shimbun - Jiji Press - Thomson Reuters - Bloomberg - Nippon Hoso Kyokai - Nippon Television - Fuji Television - Tokyo Broadcasting System - TV TOKYO - NNA etc.
  • 20. However AM will not provide finished parts so, we will need Hybrid processes (Additive + Finishing) • https://youtu.be/24VmCzT12mk Advanced Manufacturing Processes
  • 21. New materials and light structures
  • 22. Relevance of materials along human existence New materials and light structures
  • 23. We urgently need a faster R&D model The example of EMBRAPII
  • 24. Exemplos de Instituições de C&T&I para Impacto Econômico/Social • Alemanha - Sistema Fraunhofer: faz a ponte do conhecimento das universidades para articular com as empresas (principalmente as médias empresas) em busca de inovação • França – Carnot Institutes: Rede de institutos com a missão de articular pesquisadores e empresas em torno de projetos demandados pelas empresas ou pelo mercado. • UK – Catapult: Sistema de institutos de pesquisa voltado para atender demandas industriais. • EUA - FEDERALLY FUNDED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTERS – FFRDC’s: Agrupamentos institucionais (envolvendo empresas) que recebem missões específicas do governo, de interesse público e da nação. • Brasil – EMBRAPII: Rede de unidades de pesquisa com vocação para projetos integrados de inovação, fomentada com recursos federais.
  • 25. The EMBRAPII System Lab or Research Department or Group integrated by a well defined competence EMBRAPII Proposal of Afiliation including a Action Plan (business plan) - Definition of competece profille - Technical team and leadership structure - Track record in cooperation with industry - IP Policy - Vision with future revenue from industry - Values for pre-defined EMBRAPII indicators If approved, becames a EMBRAPII Unit: - EMBRAPII pays in advance - Very detailed and close follow- up is started
  • 26. The EMBRAPII System: Operation EMBRAPII Unit (EU) May co-finance salaries, electricity etc. Innovation Results EMBRAPII Continous follow up of the EU by EMBRAPII -Contracts -Financial helth -IP -Other KPI’s EU prospect clients, evaluate and hire R&D&I with Industry Enterprises pays a minimum of 1/3 of the project costs EMBRAPII pays 1/3 of the all its UE expenses
  • 27. Unidades EMBRAPII e PEIF CNPEM Fundação CERTI UFSC Polo Senai Polímeros IPT CEEI UFGC Senai CIMATEC UFRGS LAMEF CPqD IF Bahia IF Espirito Santo IF Minas Gerais IF CearáDCC UFMG FEMEC UFU Cesar REMA Inatel USP Poli Eldorado IPT Bio EMBRAPA INT IF Fluminense Tecgraf COPPE CQMED CSEM Senai Joinville ESALQIFSC INDT TecnoGreen LACTEC
  • 28. Funil de negociação: Prospecção X Contrato (acumulado 06/06/2017) Companies conceptual proposals Proposals with work plan and costs Hired Projects2230 1001 773 256 Prospections (visits and meetings) 4586
  • 32. Recent contracted values for the main non- reimbursable innovation funding programs in Brazil 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2014 2015 2016 2017 Signed contracts/year or paid values/year for major non-reimbursable innovation funding programs in Brazilin R$ Millions EMBRAPII (1) Fapesp PIPE (2) BNDES FUNTEC(3) Finep Subvenção (4) Obs. & sources: (1) - value of contracts signed, Embrapii started its operation in 2014. Source: EMBRAPII Management System. (2) - paid values, Source: “PIPE 20 anos” book. Obs: 2017 refer-se only to YTD - May 2017. (3) - value of contracts signed, source: Souza E., et all, Avaliação do BNDES Funtec: uma análise sistêmica de efetividade, Revista do BNDES, 45, pp 67-97, Jun 2016 (4) - paid values. Source: Relatório de Gestão Finep 2017 - table 10, pag. 55
  • 35. Return of companies to joint R&D projects with EMBRAPII 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Bematech BG do Brasil BRPhotonics Compalead BR Energy System BR Foxconn Brasil HP do Brasil Idea Sistemas Oxiteno Proquality CSN Ingenico Siemens Brasil Ericson Vale Acelor Mital Whirpool/EMBRACO Embraer Grupo Votorantim number of contracs Many other companies have returned for a second or third contract with EMBRAPII Units. The numbers are:  14 different industries have contracted 3 times and,  29 different industries have contracted twice.
  • 36. Impacto do sistema EMBRAPII nas Unidades de Pesquisa
  • 37. Impacto no IPT (receita com projetos e serviços) R$ 0.28 R$ 1.58 R$ 7.61 R$ 17.31 R$ 19.80 R$ 0.00 R$ 5.00 R$ 10.00 R$ 15.00 R$ 20.00 R$ 25.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 R$Milhões BNDES Embrapii FINEP Outras fontes P&D Serviços Tecnológicos