Tourism is a vital GDP contributor. It is an economic sector that serves as the gateway to other sectors to prosper. Kenya is a tourism magnet. Kenya is the 3rd largest tourism economy after Nigeria and South Africa. In 2018, Kenya tourism had seen about 6% growth creating about 1 million jobs. Kenya’s Vision 2030 sees opportunities and challenges to improve the sector. However, tourism is highly competitive, and the sector is sensitive to price changes caused by domestic shifts, regional instability, and to external forces. Tourism also has the dynamism and synergism to stimulate domestic demands turning the local and national economy towards people centric. No doubt that that tourism industry has been showing an impressive recovery since 2015 but sustaining it would be a major concern especially post the pandemic of COVID19. Recouping the pandemic losses of $750 million in revenue would be the next task towards achieving its vision 2030. This can only be assumed if people (especially domestic) continue to travel throughout the recessions, and tourism businesses are to be recession-proof for the sector to sustain its importance in national productivity contribution.

1. Kenya Vision 2030:
Localizing the Shenzhen
Model of Development for a
Sustainable Tourism Bearing.
Eric Balan1, Mohd Saeed Siddiq2
1University Tun Abdul Razak,
2Minot State University
International Business Research and Industrial Conference

2. Introduction
Tourism is a vital GDP contributor. It is an economic sector that serves as the gateway
to other sectors to prosper. Kenya is a tourism magnet. Kenya is the 3rd largest tourism
economy after Nigeria and South Africa. In 2018, Kenya tourism had seen about 6%
growth creating about 1 million jobs. Kenya’s Vision 2030 sees opportunities and
challenges to improve the sector. However, tourism is highly competitive, and the
sector is sensitive to price changes caused by domestic shifts, regional instability, and
to external forces. Tourism also has the dynamism and synergism to stimulate domestic
demands turning the local and national economy towards people centric. No doubt that
that tourism industry has been showing an impressive recovery since 2015 but
sustaining it would be a major concern especially post the pandemic of COVID19.
Recouping the pandemic losses of $750 million in revenue would be the next task
towards achieving its vision 2030. This can only be assumed if people (especially
domestic) continue to travel throughout the recessions, and tourism businesses are to
be recession-proof for the sector to sustain its importance in national productivity
contribution.

3. Kenya Tourism
Analysis
Data published by the World Bank is in
congruent with the Kenya’s national
indicative forecast and predictions of the
tourism sector. Table 1 shows the tourist
arrivals at Jomo Kenyatta International
Airport and Mombasa International Airport,
respectively. The data excludes Kenyan
travellers. The overall number provides an
indication of the inbound tourist receipts that
contributes towards the total national exports
Month Airports
JKIA MIA
2019 2020 2019 2020
Jan 113362 114873 15727 12214
Feb 107058 108578 12864 11092
Mar 106001 43346 9732 3950
Apr 104418 12 5096 0
May 98788 1229 3689 0
Jun 126822 534 2454 2
Jul 150286 617 8663 1
Aug 150723 13371 11000 548
Sep 124001 na 9208 na
Oct 115828 na 10940 na
Nov 111548 na 12339 na
Dec 121912 na 12391 na
Total 1430747 282560 114103 27807
Source: Department of Immigration Services, Kenya

4. Basing solely on the data provided, in terms of overall GDP contribution of Kenya’s total exports, it can be
assumed that the tourism sector is indeed efficient. Tourism is contributing significantly to Kenya’s GDP.
However, when a closer examination was carried out and the contribution was measured in terms of dollar
value, the data presented a rising concern. Figure 3 shows that the tourism expenditures and receipts were seeing
a downward trend over the same period of 2010-2019. From the point of 2015, as the UN announced the plans
and targets in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, the Kenya’s tourism seemed to have flatten out into
a straight line. To confirmed this, a Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA, assessment was employed to understand
the efficiency factor of Kenya’s tourism sector.
Source: The World Bank Dataset

5. Data Envelopment Analysis
The DEA measured the tourism sector using two efficiency scale:
Overall Technical Efficiency (OTE) and Pure Technical Efficiency
(PTE). The assessment concluded that the tourism sector was indeed
inefficient for the overall period except for 2016, 2017, and 2019 were
efficient years for Kenya’s tourism, hence confirming the data from the
World Bank.
To be fair, the period of 2010-2019, and particularly zeroing into the
period of 2015-2019, Africa as a whole continent undergone massive
struggles. The Ebola and Zika outbreaks were two of the problems that
nearly ceased many parts of the continent. Issues over the border with
Somalia and Ethiopia was a major matter that impacted the tourism
sector in Kenya.
The devaluation of the shilling had also stirred up commotions and with
an overvalued currency it makes Kenyan exports undesirable and
uncompetitive. This also had caused a severe imbalance to the current
account. This too choked the banks from lending to the private sectors
causing a low tax revenue collection and higher debt.
The shilling that fell had also caused a panic demand for more dollars
that triggered a spiral in the capital markets and sparked a higher
inflation on the supply side. It was impossible for Kenya to invest in
itself during the aforementioned period.

6. Leveraging of China
Understanding, rationalizing, and implementing the SDG targets works in a process of expansion and
consolidation. Kenya needs to be sure that as it expands, it needs to realize of the speed and impact that the
expansion brings. The consolidation process allows Kenya to then rationalize and internalize the process of
expansion and therefore allow the government of Kenya to take a “big picture” approach to see if the expansions
are truly what it needs. For tourism to work, as echoed in SDG 9, resilient infrastructure is vital. Proper
infrastructure caters, accommodates, and invites globalized interest. This will then sustain and uplift local
industries which will then in turn foster innovation to spur a rich dynamic continuum of the economy. Since
2010, the Kenyan government has adopted a series of policies to promote economic growth, and the economy
has indeed progress in a steady momentum of development.
This would then actively promote the industrialization process and economic transformation. With COVID19,
the Kenyan government will incur a high public debt. With the economic conditions not being in favour to
Kenya, it surely does not have the financial means to render infrastructure development on its own, therefore
leveraging off China’s Belt and Road development constructions will only catapult Kenya into realizing its
economic outcomes quicker. The bigger goal remains,- Vision 2030 and the Big Four Agenda. In resolving
existing matters, restructuring current and future project deals, and leveraging off China would only ensure that
Kenya’ goals are met. As the Chinese influence gains prominence in the country, it gives an opportunity to
Kenya to localize some of China’s development successes seen in China to be emulated in Kenya.

7. Localizing the Shenzhen Model
+ The development and success of Shenzhen was the genius of Shenzhen University founded in 1983 that stirred
innovation and entrepreneurship. Shenzhen was designated as China’s first Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and
became China’s first manufacturing hub and China’s richest and influential city. The key to Shenzhen’s success was
to open the city to marketization. It was and still is a city that thrives on demand and supply. Every form of
development that took place in the city had a purpose and played a role in the vision of transforming the city into
what it is today.
+ From the tech central, to its education, from trading natural minerals to a mega financial hub, the vision never
strayed. Everything that came out and up from Shenzhen had a functional duty towards the city’s progress. The
speed of its development and around its region became known as the “Shenzhen Speed” and the success from this
opening up experiment prompted the Chinese government to then transform other coastal cities into special
economic zones. This is the Shenzhen Model.
+ For Kenya, the SEZs ultimate test is to maximize the efficient reallocation of resources. SEZs are not just an
economic measure, it is also a socioeconomic one. With the rapid movement of urbanization in Nairobi and
Mombasa, the social structure of the SEZ must be able to cope and adapt to the changes it will experience. The
mindset and dynamism of the people within the SEZ must be geared towards sustainability. Like Shenzhen,
everything has a specific role. Certain designated cities in Kenya can adopt and adapt the Shenzhen Model with a
caveat that the government do not intervene and allow innovation and entrepreneurship to take shape.

8. The Double U: UN SDG and Uhuru’s Big 4
+ Vision2030 is a holistic change. It is a change that leaves no stones untouched and unturned. It is a change is the
mindset of the people. When a country like Kenya begins to see affirmative results due to the change it has taken,
the subregion of East Africa will follow suit. When Kenya changes, it is inevitable for the east African community to
not change.
+ The objective was simple, - to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing middle income country providing a high
quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment through an all-inclusive and participatory
stakeholder consultative process, involving Kenyans from all parts of the country. Accountability, integrity, and
performance will be key indicators It is also to note that this mega endeavour is not entirely left to the government
to shoulder. The targets of the SDG are meant for a collaborative effort between the individuals, communities, and
the institutions of Kenya to bend its energies towards the success of the country.
+ Calling for development and empowerment is not a revolution; it is a revelation of resolutions. It needs purpose and
it needs life. As the Big 4 agenda coincides with almost all of the UN SDG targets and goals. It also coincides
directly with the economic and social rights as stipulated in Article 43 of the nation’s constitution. The decade of
2020-2030 would be the defining period for Kenya in becoming the beacon that East Africa needs.

9. Moving the Tourism Economy Up the
value chain
+ As a key pillar of the economic and a driver for other sectors, the tourism sector does not require reinventions.
Since tourism is a global industry, the mindset of Kenya must be geared toward global competitiveness. The
battle at hand is COVID19, but taking the pandemic out of the economic equation, Kenya’s tourism has only a
single theme, - national parks and the Indian ocean. Reinstating COVID19 back into the economic equation,
the entire sector plummets. Pre pandemic lockdowns, international arrivals had increased by a mere 0.4% in
2019 as compared to a 14% rise from 2018. This is a very minute increase, which had also grown tourism
earnings by 3.9% year-on-year. International conferences increased by 6.9%. National parks visitors expanded
by 3.7%. Total international visitors surpassed the 2 million mark.
+ An innovative way to sustain the tourism sector is to follow the “tourist’s footsteps”. This will detail out the
steps taken, the places visited, and the businesses they interact with as soon as they land in JKIA or MIA. The
touchpoints and the cumulative activities of a tourist’s trip are vital information toward the entire tourism
experience as a whole. Some tourism activities can be visually represented like the physical shops, but there
are many that cannot be visually seen, and these are the inner needs and the voids or a tourist that requires a
supply to the demand. Such a manner helps in the distribution and redistribution of businesses that relies on
tourism

10. Conclusion
+ Tourism is a major organ, and it is connected to the main economic artery. In a world free from the pandemic,
this is a sector that comes with intense competition, but it is also a volatile sector. These challenges be it
internal or external can be addressed and resolved through policies that are focused on the attention of
sustaining the sector under any condition.
+ This is not a simple role for the government and its tourism agencies to weather. The assistance to be rendered
through innovation and entrepreneurship stemming from the institutions of higher learning can ease the
struggles
+ It is a fragile state to be in when the country is trying to balance human development and ecological
conservation. Drafting policies with these in mind is itself a sustainable battle. In an attempt to assess and
reassess the economic role of tourism, Kenyans would need to consider and reconsider on the purpose of each
tourism endeavour that it is about to embark on towards 2030. To develop is easy but to sustain is hard.
Localizing the Shenzhen model would not be easy as well as it needs robust and suitable institutional drivers
that are free from bureaucracy and be willing to put their trust into the market.

11. Thank You
Eric Balan1, Mohd Saeed Siddiq2
1University Tun Abdul Razak,
2Minot State University
International Business Research and Industrial Conference