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Special report-04-october-2018-epic-research (1)
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
Global markets at a glance
Wall Street advanced on Wednesday and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average closed at a record for a second day, after
U.S. economic data fuelled a rise in Treasury yields, lifting
financial stocks.
The ADP National Employment Report showed private
payrolls jumped by 230,000 jobs in September, the largest
gain since February. A report from the Institute for Supply
Management showed services sector activity hit a 21-year
high in September.The data fed expectations for a US
Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December. The yield
on the 10-year US Treasury note touched its highest level in
over seven years at 3.179 percent and the two-year yield
hit its highest in more than a decade.
Asian shares ticked down on Wednesday and the euro held
at six-week lows as Italy's mounting debt and Rome's
budget plan set it on a collision course with the European
Union.Japan's Nikkei eased 0.5 percent on a stronger yen.
Australian shares gained 0.3 percent while New Zealand's
benchmark index fell 0.2 percent. E-Minis for the S&P 500
were a shade softer as were Dow futures.Investors
remained jittery even as a new US-Mexico-Canada trade
agreement appeared to ease global trade tensions. A
controversial clause in the trilateral pact put the focus back
on the Sino-US tariff dispute.China's financial markets are
closed for the National Day holiday and will resume trade
on October 8. The markets in the world's second biggest
economy have taken a hammering this year as investors
fretted the trade dispute could put a significant dent on
growth.
Previous day Roundup
The market fell sharply on Wednesday as traders turned
cautious ahead of Monetary Policy Committee's rate
decision due on Friday after rupee hitting record lows and
crude touching multi-year highs.
The Nifty50 after gap down opening extended losses as the
day progressed and broke the 10,900 levels in last hour of
trade. The index closed 150 points lower at 10,858.30 and
formed strong bearish candle on the daily charts. If it
doesn't stabilise around its 200-day EMA of 10,785 levels
then more selling pressure is likely.India VIX moved up by
8.16 percent at 18.21 levels. Volatility is not cooling down
which is not giving the relief and suggests a tight bear grip
in the market.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in
dices performed as follow; Commodities[-4.55],
Consumption[-111.20pts],Bank[-297.10pts],Auto[-
284.25pts],FinService[-117.15pts],Fmcg[-425.60pts],Media
[-11.15pts],Pharma[-83.50pts],IT[-303.80pts],Metal
[63.95pts],Realty[-0.10 pts], Pvt Bank[-210.65pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 26,808.39 -0.45
S&P500 2,918.25 -0.54
NASDAQ 7,623.25 -0.54
FTSE100 7,510.28 0.48
NIKKEI 23,940.74 -0.71
HANG SENG 26,635.68 -1.71
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Yes Bank 200.85 17.20 9.37
Hindalco 242.90 13.25 5.77
TCS 2,255.55 71.85 3.29
SBI 273.85 8.35 3.15
HDFC 1,806.35 51.85 2.96
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Bharti Airtel 326.75 -11.80 -3.49
HPCL 243.15 -8.30 -3.30
Axis Bank 593.45 -19.80 -3.23
UltraTechCement 3,940.20 -119.75 -2.95
IndusInd Bank 1,642.65 -47.40 -2.8
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
AIONJSW 35.75 1.75 4.9
ICICINXT50 273.72 -2.82 -1.03
JAINSTUDIO 5.3 0.25 4.72
LIQUIDETF 1000.01 0 0
N100 640.88 -0.38 -0.06
PRAKASHSTL 0.65 0.05 7.69
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 10858.30 -150.00 -1.36
SENSEX 35975.63 -550.51 -1.51
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
21STCENMGM 28.3 -0.5 -1.77
8KMILES 181.8 -9.05 -4.98
A2ZINFRA 10.05 -1 -9.95
ADHUNIK 2.75 0.1 3.64
AHLEAST 245.75 -9.75 -3.97
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
GRANULES [CASH]
The particular counter has shown a clear bounce back
from its support level of 91.60 , since market has shown a
reversal from its support level so we can expect that its
two weeks downtrend has come to an end here buy on
dip would be good strategy to follow so we advice to buy
granules around 96-97 for the targets of 100-105 with
stoploss below 94.
MACRO NEWS
Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for
the broader index in India, a fall of 117 points or 1.08
percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,766-
level on the Singaporean Exchange.
The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC),
headed by RBI governor Urjit Patel, began three-day
deliberations Wednesday to decide on the key policy
rates amid expectations that it would go for a 25 basis
points hike to counter the impact of rising oil prices on
inflation.
If the RBI raises the interest rate on Friday, it would be
third in a row. It hiked key policy rate in this fiscal's
second bi-monthly policy in June after a hiatus of four-
and-a-half years. Subsequently, the RBI raised the repo
rate or short term lending rate by another 25 basis
points in August policy meet.
The rupee plunged by 43 paise to breach the historic
low of 73 level as soaring crude oil prices fuelled
worries over capital outflows and widening current
account deficit. The domestic currency closed at a
record low of 73.34, down by 43 paise or 0.59 percent
at the interbank foreign exchange here.
Oil prices on Thursday fell from four-year highs
reached the previous session, pressured by rising US
inventories and after sources said Russia and Saudi
Arabia struck a private deal in September to raise
crude output.
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. INFY [FUTURE ]
On monday the particular counter breaked its crucial
resistance level of 733 and moved towards its another
resistance level of 745, the stock has closed below it but as
the volume increses it can surely break this level so we
advice to buy infy future around 746-750 for the targets of
760-770 with stoploss below 740.
2. BAJFINANCE [FUTURE]
As per the stockhastic momentum indicator the stock is
clearly showing a oversold condition. Closing with a hanging
man candle at its support level of 2147 the stock has
indicated a clear sign of reversal. From here 2-3% upside
movement can be found so we advice to buy bajfinance
future around 2170-2180 for the target of 2210-2240 with
stoploss below 2145.
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY CE 26,000 1.05 2,39,280 11,08,880
BANKNIFTY CE 25,900 1.3 2,12,185 2,93,640
NIFTY CE 11,200 60 1,72,023 28,51,200
YESBANK CE 220 14.5 7,030 34,65,000
YESBANK CE 240 8.3 5,187 32,95,250
YESBANK CE 230 11.05 4,756 30,55,500
MARUTI CE 8,000 46.85 4,485 2,41,425
VEDL CE 250 7.8 4,092 21,07,000
MARUTI CE 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY PE 24,600 11.5 1,75,932 3,90,720
BANKNIFTY PE 24,500 7.9 1,74,511 6,72,160
BANKNIFTY PE 25,400 355 1,45,377 92,760
YESBANK PE 200 12 5,636 20,26,500
RELIANCE PE 1,200 37.9 3,239 7,79,000
YESBANK PE 210 16.25 2,918 8,82,000
YESBANK PE 180 6.7 2,877 24,65,750
MARUTI PE 7,000 181.45 2,670 63,975
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 47567 4316.75 47590 4307.90 220076 18173.56 8.8432
INDEX OPTIONS 1175185 109802.22 1157880 107840.03 734060 63480.30 1962.1887
STOCK FUTURES 276987 16484.39 267926 16067.59 1216806 83726.68 416.8034
STOCK OPTIONS 92072 6006.43 92321 6070.17 50197 3127.88 -63.7409
2324.0944
STOCKS IN NEWS
L&T Financial Holding board meeting on October 8
to consider raising of funds NCD worth Rs 250 crore
Coal India: Provisional production of April-
September 2018 at 256.47 million tonne versus
231.88 million tonne YoY (up 10.6 percent) and
Offtake at 290.81 million tonne versus 269 million
tonne YoY (up 8.1 percent).
NIFTY FUTURE
The Nifty50 after gap down opening extended losses as
the day progressed and broke the 10,900 levels in last
hour of trade. The index closed 150 points lower at
10,858.30 and formed strong bearish candle on the daily
charts. If it doesn't stabilise around its 200-day EMA of
10,785 levels then more selling pressure is likely so we
advice to sell nifty future around 10850-30 for the
targets of 10780-10700 with stoploss above 10920.
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 11042.00 10950.00 10896.00 10804.00 10750.00
BANKNIFTY 25632.00 25350.00 25188.00 24906.00 24744.00
4. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Special Report
04-Oct-2018
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
COMEX Gold recovered from lows near $1200 per ounce
levels as soaring crude oil futures and weak US dollar
boosted the metal. The US dollar index is hovering under 94
mark - its lowest level in around three months though some
recovery can be seen in the greenback ahead of the Fed
monetary policy meet today. COMEX Gold is currently
trading at $1206 per ounce, up marginally on the day.
Continued strength in US economic data can also support
the dollar. US consumer confidence climbed to 138.4 in
September from an upwardly revised 134.7 in August,
according to a report released by the Conference Board on
Tuesday. With the unexpected increase, the consumer
confidence index reached a new 18-year high and is not far
from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.MCX Gold
futures closed around Rs 30800 per 10 grams, down
marginally on the day. Brent Crude oil prices soared to a
four-year high around 81 per barrel on US sanctions on
Iranian crude exports and steady cues from global stock
markets.
MCX Copper futures pulled back slightly today after hitting
near three month highs around Rs 460 per kg as a recovery
in Indian Rupee and mixed undertone in global Copper
market weighed on the counter. COMEX Copper futures
steadied around $2.86 per pound- their two month high as
risk sentiment mostly remained supported with oil prices
holding near four-year highs. However, the lingering US-
China trade tension and the upcoming Federal Reserve
meeting capped the gains for global equities. The Indian
Rupee moved lower in early moves, threatening to test yet
another record low near 73 per US dollar mark but flipped
back the direction in afternoon as local equities soared
sharply from their two and half month lows. The INR also
eventually gained following this and ended just under 72.70
per dollar mark. This strength in the local currency hurt
MCX Copper and the benchmark MCX Copper futures are
quoting at Rs 458.85 per kg, down marginally in red.
Brent Crude oil prices soared to a four-year high around 81
per barrel on US sanctions on Iranian crude exports and
steady cues from global stock markets. Long-term global
crude oil demand has been revised upward for the second
consecutive year, with total demand at over 111.7 mb/d in
2040, according to the 2018 OPEC World Oil Outlook
(WOO). Total primary energy is set to expand by a robust
33% between 2015 and 2040, driven predominantly by
Developing countries, which see almost 95% of the overall
energy demand growth. MCX Crude ended at Rs 5266 per
barrel, down 0.13% on the day following a correction under
Rs 5300 on strength in the Indian Rupee.
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 31370 TGT 31420 31470 SL
BELOW 31320
SELL GOLD OCT FUT BELOW 31130 TGT 31080 30030 SL
ABOVE 30180
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER SEP FUT 39330 TGT 39380 39420 SL BELOW
39280
SELL SILVER SEP FUT 38950 TGT 38900 38850 SL ABOVE
39000
5. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Barley 1794 0.65
Castor Seed 4644 -0.17
Chana 4192 2
Coriander 4872 0.43
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1672 2.26
Guar Seed 10 MT 4251 -0.42
Jeera 18825 0.27
Mustardseed 4142 0.02
Soy Bean 3219 1.64
Turmeric 6814 1.28
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARGUM
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9260 TGT 9300 9350 SL
BELOW 9200
SELL GUARGUM OCT FUT BELOW 9220 TARGET 9170-9120
SL 9270
DHANIYA
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY DHANIYA SEP FUT ABOVE 4950 TGT 4980 5010 SL
BELOW 4920
SELL DHANIYA SEP FUT BELOW 4830 TARGET 4800-4770 SL
4860
Selling intensified in mustard seed market on poor demand
from millers in local mandies. The market sources added
that rise in sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds along with
favourable monsoon rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat will
encourage mustard seed crop sowing in the current season.
The spot prices in Jaipur mandi are trading around Rs 4000
per quintal, down Rs 15 per quintal on the day.
The latest report of United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA ) has raised India's total oilmeal exports
in MY 2017/18 to settle at 2.4 MMT, 0.3 MMT above
previous estimate. Indian soymeal prices have declined
from $486/MT in February 2018 to $433/MT in July 2018,
but are still 10 percent higher than soymeal from the
United States and Brazil. Stronger demand from South
Korea, Japan, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and France have helped
spur Indian soymeal sales. Similarly, Indian rapeseed meal
prices have dropped by more than $33/MT to $217/MT, as
of July 2018, which is approximately $47/MT lower than
other international suppliers. As a result, rapeseed meal
sales to South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan and other
South East Asian countries have improved.
The MY 2018/19 oilmeal export forecast remains
unchanged at 2.9 MMT, but USDA notes that the future
direction of India's exports will depend on price
competitiveness of Indian oilmeals in the international
markets and local demand from poultry feed
manufacturers, which is likely to remain strong.
The foreign direct investment (FDI) in the food processing
sector has already touched the $1-billion mark so far this
year, Food Processing Minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal said
Tuesday, according to media reports. According to official
data, FDI in the food processing sector was $904.9 million in
the 2017-18 fiscal, while it stood at $727.22 million,
$505.88 million and $515.86 million in 2016-17, 2015-16
and 2014-15, respectively.
6. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 73.0299 Yen 64.1800
Euro 84.5784 GBP 94.9880
USD/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY USDINR ABOVE 73.30 TGT 73.80 74.30 SL BELOW 72.50
SELL USDINR BELOW 72.50 TGT 72.00 71.50 SL ABOVE 73.00
GBP/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GBPINR ABOVE 96.00 TGT 96.50 97.00 SL BELOW 95.50
SELL GBPINR BELOW 94.90 TGT 94.40 94.00 SL ABOVE 95.40
The rupee Tuesday weakened further by 6 paise to close at
72.69 to the US dollar on sustained demand for the
American currency amid soaring crude prices.
It was a highly volatile day on the forex market as wide
swings in the currency value kept investors on edge and
precluded the emergence of a clear trend.
A further sharp spike in international crude oil prices due
to a combination of factors and bullish dollar overseas
trend ahead of Federal Reserve's two-day policy kept
trading sentiment little shaky.
The Indian currency dangerously slipped to a low of 72.96
in early trade -- within striking distance of its life-time low
of 72.99 hit last week but managed to pare some losses on
likely intervention from the central bank.
It briefly touched a high of 72.57 in mid-afternoon deals.
The rupee has lost 49 paise in last two days.
Heavy dollar selling by banks and exporters along with
greenbank's weakness against some currencies overseas
largely supplemented the recovery momentum.
A spectacular bull back rally in domestic bourses after five
straight-day pounding on the back of value buying in
beaten-down key stocks and hectic short-covering ahead
of expiry also helped in propping up the currency.
The currency markets worldwide are rattled with over-
lapping geopolitical factors rubbing shoulder against each
other and also underpinned by the divergent monetary
policy outlooks against major global central banks, a forex
dealer commented.
The US Fed is likely to stay on course and hike interest
rates by 25 basis points (bps) tomorrow.
The benchmark 10-year sovereign yield held also stable at
8.1258 per cent buoyed by the RBI decision to conduct
open market operations (OMO) Thursday to purchase
government bonds to infuse liquidity of Rs 10,000 crore.
Meanwhile, crude prices rose to four-year highs near USD
82 a barrel after global producers decided against further
output increases, despite pressure from US president
Donald Trump for renewed action to cool prices.
Brent crude futures were at USD 81.79 per barrel in early
Asian trade - the highest level since November 2014.
At the inter-bank foreign exchange (forex) market, the
rupee opened sharply lower at 72.89 from overnight close
of 72.63 on sustained dollar demand.
7. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Please refer to disclaimer Epic Research Ltd w w w . e p i c r e s e a r c h . c o
Special Report
04-Oct-2018
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or
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Disclaimer
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, OCT. 1
9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI Sept. -- 55.6
10 am
10 am Construction spending Aug. 0.3% 0.1%
TUESDAY,
OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY,
OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT. 2
TUESDAY, OCT.
2
TUESDAY,
OCT. 2
Varies Motor vehicle sales Sept. 16.9 mln 16.7 mln
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 3
8:15 am ADP employment Sept. -- 163,000
9:45 am Markit services PMI Sept. -- 52.9
10 am
THURSDAY,
OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDA
Y, OCT. 4
THURSDAY, OCT. 4
THURSDAY,
OCT. 4
THURSDAY,
OCT. 4
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 9/27 210,000 214,000
10 am Factory orders Aug. 1.9% -0.8%
FRIDAY,
OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY,
OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT. 5 FRIDAY, OCT. 5
FRIDAY, OCT.
5
8:30 am
8:30 am Unemployment rate Sept. 3.8% 3.9%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Sept. 0.3% 0.4%