POLAND 2014 REPORT ON FOREIGN TRADE

POLAND 2014 – REPORT ON FOREIGN TRADE
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
POLAND 2014
REPORT ON
FOREIGNTRADE
WARSAW 2014

Prepared by:
Ministry of Economy
Strategy and Analyses Department
Kazimierz Miszczyk (Coordinator of the Foreign Trade Analyses Unit),
Małgorzata Mendyk-Zelman, Jerzy Rutkowski, Monika Walczak
under the supervision of:
Aneta Piątkowska – Director of the Strategy and Analyses Department
Maria Szkutnicka-PieniąŜek – Deputy Director of the Strategy and Analyses Department
ISSN 1643-2703

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Table of contents
Synthesis ................................................................................................................................................. 5
1 Changes in external and internal conditions ....................................................................................... 9
1.1 External conditions ...................................................................................................................... 9
1.1.1 Situation in the global economy and on the main markets in 2013.......................................... 9
1.1.2 Changes in world prices and exchange rates........................................................................ 12
1.1.3 Situation in global trade ......................................................................................................... 13
1.1.4 Current situation and development prospects for the global economy and selected markets 21
1.2 Internal conditions – general situation of the Polish economy ................................................... 28
2 Long-term changes in merchandise trade......................................................................................... 33
2.1 Changes during the transformation period................................................................................. 33
2.2 Changes in trade since Poland’s EU accession......................................................................... 35
3 Scale and dynamics of trade in goods in 2013................................................................................. 41
3.1 Trade according to data of the NBP........................................................................................... 41
3.2 Trade according to data of the CSO .......................................................................................... 44
4 Changes in the geographical structure of trade in goods.................................................................. 47
4.1 Changes seen from the continental perspective........................................................................ 47
4.2 Changes in main groups of countries ........................................................................................ 48
4.2.1 The European Union.............................................................................................................. 50
4.2.2 Non-EU developed markets................................................................................................... 52
4.2.3 Commonwealth of Independent States.................................................................................. 53
4.2.4 Other developing countries (except the CIS)......................................................................... 55
5 Changes in the commodity structure of trade in goods..................................................................... 59
6 Designation of imported goods ......................................................................................................... 73
7 Services in Polish foreign trade......................................................................................................... 75
7.1 Geographical structure of the Polish foreign trade in services................................................... 76
7.2 Subject matter structure of the Polish foreign trade in services ................................................. 78
8 Foreign trade in the first half of 2014 ................................................................................................ 83
9 Forecasts for 2014............................................................................................................................ 91
Annex 1.................................................................................................................................................. 95
Impact of imports of energy raw materials on total Polish import expenditure in years 2003-2013........ 95
List of tables......................................................................................................................................... 100
List of charts......................................................................................................................................... 101

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SYNTHESIS
The global economic recovery predicted by the IMF at the end of 2012 has failed to materialize in 2013.
Instead of the expected global GDP increase in 2013 to a level of 3.6% (compared to 3.5% in 2012), the
GDP has actually decreased, attaining the level of 3.2%. The economic slowdown affected mature
economies to a slightly lesser extent (down from 1.4% to 1.3%) compared to emerging and developing
economies (down from 5.1% to 4.7%). The original economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone – which
remains a key export market area for Poland – had to be adjusted to an ever greater extent. Instead of
overcoming the recession during the autumn of 2012 and embarking upon a path of economic growth in
2013, the economic downturn has continued, even though the pace thereof has decreased from 0.7% to
0.4%.
Although the US economy – unlike the Eurozone – experienced another period of GDP growth in 2013,
the pace thereof has declined from 2.8% to 1.9%. The CIS countries have experienced an even more
notable growth slowdown (down from 3.4% to 2.2%), including, in particular, the Russian Federation
(down from 3.4% to 1.3%). The economic downturn on emerging and developing markets has coincided
with a certain decrease in the pace of import absorption growth on those markets (down from 5.8% in
2012 to 5.6% in 2013). The developed markets, on the other hand, experienced a significant increase of
the pace of goods and services import growth (from 1.1% to 1.4%). The increased import absorption of
those markets, combined with the fact that the markets in question account for a dominant share (82%)
of Polish exports, has resulted in a substantial increase of the pace of export growth, from a mere
5% in 2012 to 8% in 2013.
The notable gain in exports, combined with a consistently slow pace of import growth in 2013 has
resulted in a further, significant reduction of the merchandise trade deficit, which has plunged from over
EUR 10.6 billion in 2012 to barely EUR 2 billion in 2013.
Whereas in 2012 the pace of growth of export to developed markets barely reached the level of 2.4% –
more than two times less than the overall average export growth, in 2013 the gain in exports to these
markets proved to be three times greater than in the previous year and only slightly smaller than the
overall average export growth.
The pace of export growth to EU markets has increased from 2.3% in 2012 to 6.3% in 2013. The
economic recovery was particularly notable with respect to exports to the Eurozone markets. Whereas
in 2012 the exports to the Eurozone has risen by a mere 0.7%, in 2013 the pace thereof has increased
to 5.6%. This has been the consequence, inter alia, of a significant increase of the pace of growth in
exports to Germany, rising from a mere 1.1% in 2012 to nearly 8% in 2013. However, the pace of
growth of exports to CIS markets has concurrently experienced a threefold decrease, with a fourfold
slowdown in exports to the Russian Federation (down from 25% in 2012 to slightly above 6% in 2013).
The significant recovery in terms of exports to EU markets in 2013 has coincided with a further,
substantial improvement in terms of the balance of exchange (up from EUR 20.7 billion in 2012 to EUR
24.5 billion in 2013). Favourable changes and tendencies in terms of exports to developed markets,
including, in particular, EU markets, which have occurred in the previous year may, on one hand, serve
as testimony to the relatively high degree of competitiveness and potential of Polish exporters in terms
of their capacity to adjust to the stricter requirements in terms of demand which exist on these

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challenging markets, while on the other hand it also proves the key position of the markets in question
insofar as the development of Polish exports is concerned in the nearby perspective, even despite the
occasional business fluctuations.
Year 2013 also brought about changes in terms of export dynamics with respect to the most significant
groups of commodities. The increased intensity of the export of electromechanical goods deserves
a special mention. The most notable increase was recorded for section XVII which includes vehicles,
aircraft and vessels. Following a substantial downturn experienced in 2012 (down by over 6%), year
2013 brought about a significant increase in terms of exports, which have risen by over 10%, not only
resulting in the original level of exports from 2011 becoming restored, but also ensuring an increase
thereof to a level of approximately EUR 22.6 billion, i.e. over EUR 0.7 billion more than two years ago.
While this has translated into an improvement in terms of the balance of exchange in this section,
reaching a level of over EUR 5.7 billion compared to approximately EUR 5 billion in 2012, due to the
coinciding import revival the relatively high surplus levels recorded two years ago (EUR 6.6 billion) could
not be attained.
A significant increase of the scale of exports was also experienced in the chemical industry products
group, including, in particular, the plastics and plastic products section (section VII). The pace of export
growth in this particular group increased by approximately 3 p.p. in 2013, reaching the level of 9%; in
absolute terms this has resulted in a rise in the value thereof amounting to more than EUR 1.8 billion.
As a consequence, the deficit in this group of products (which had traditionally remained high) has
decreased even further, down from EUR 6.3 billion in 2012 to approximately EUR 5.7 billion in 2013.
Favourable trends in terms of agricultural products and foodstuffs have persisted for another year
in a row. The export volume in this commodity group has exceeded the level of EUR 20 billion in 2013,
attaining the value of nearly EUR 20.5 billion. Even though the pace of growth of the exports of
agricultural products and foodstuffs in 2013 has dropped slightly (down from 17.5% to 14.5%), it
remains the highest among all commodity groups, while the increase in exports in absolute terms has
exceeded EUR 2.5 billion. At the same time, the surplus of trade in the commodities in question has
increased from EUR 4.3 billion in 2012 to over EUR 6.1 billion.
A slight recovery was experienced in terms of imports. The average growth rate increased by 0.9 p.p.,
reaching the level of approximately 2%. The most significant increase – both in terms of growth rate (up
by 5 p.p.) and in terms of scale (an increase by EUR 2.9 billion) – was experienced in the
electromechanical goods group, resulting from both the concurrent export revival and the extensive
intra-industry cooperation which exists within this commodity group. Against this background, a
significant plunge in mineral imports – including, in particular, crude oil and gas – has to be pointed out
(down by approximately EUR 2.3 billion).
The merchandise trade in 2013 has taken place in relatively stable and generally neutral price and
exchange rate conditions. The annual average nominal exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the
Euro – the dominant currency in the settlements pertaining to exports – has decreased slightly in 2013,
falling by approximately 0.3%, which has translated into a slight increase of transaction prices in
exports, thereby having a benign influence on exports, especially since the domestic prices of sold
output in the industry have concurrently fallen by 1.3% on average. The nominal exchange rate of the
zloty against the US dollar has increased by approximately 3% in 2013, which could have had a
measurable impact on the slackening of export growth to emerging and less developed markets, since
such transactions are settled in US dollars.

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Due to the significant margin of uncertainty as to the chances of a definite reversal of economic trends
in the global economy and of a decisive move away from recession and onto the path of economic
growth, at the present stage it is difficult to predict whether year 2014 might bring about a further
increase of economic growth and a substantial rise in demand for imported goods on the primary EU
markets which are of key significance for the purposes of ensuring that Polish exports continue to rise.
One may, however, speculate that retaining the export growth rate for 2014 at a level similar to that
which had been experienced last year, i.e. between 8 and 10%, is a realistic prospect. At the same time,
however, the growth rate is also expected to increase significantly, reaching a level of approximately 1-2
p.p. below the export level. This is a consequence of a further improvement (or at least stabilization) of
the market situation in the closest vicinity of the Polish economy.

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1 CHANGES IN EXTERNAL
AND INTERNAL CONDITIONS
1.1 External conditions
1.1.1 Situation in the global economy and on the main markets in 2013
In 2013 – the fifth year since the outbreak of the financial and economic crisis – significant uncertainty
as to the further development of the situation on most key Polish export markets still persisted.
Significant volatility of the situation on global markets in 2013, especially in the Eurozone, was reflected
in the subsequent forecasts of the International Monetary Fund. An increase in global product in 2013 at
the level of 3.6%, predicted in October 2012, has decreased to 3.3% in April 2013 and was adjusted to
2.9% in the fall forecast. In the end, according to the latest data from July 2014, the global GDP in 2013
has increased by 3.2% (compared to a 3.5% increase in 2012). However, the second half of 2013
brought about an improvement in terms of the global economic situation, mostly due to the economic
recovery which occurred in developed countries.
Whereas economic growth in developing and emerging countries (which amounted to 4.7%) remained
significantly higher than in developed countries (by 1.3%), the decrease thereof was more substantial
than in the latter group – in 2012, GDP growth on emerging and developed markets amounted to 5.1%
and 1.4% respectively.
Table 1 Changes in global GDP and in selected markets in the years 2012-2013
2012 2013
World 3.5 3.2
Advanced economies 1.4 1.3
United States 2.8 1.9
European Union -0.3 0.2
Euro Area* -0.7 -0.4
Germany 0.9 0.5
Japan 1.4 1.5
Emerging market and developing economies 5.1 4.7
Commonwealth of Independent States 3.4 2.2
Russia 3.4 1.3
Middle East and North Africa** 4.9 2.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 5.1 5.4
Latin America and Caribbean 2.9 2.6
Emerging and developing Asia 6.7 6.6
China 7.7 7.7
India 4.7 5.0
ASEAN-5*** 6.2 5.2
* excluding Latvia; ** including Afghanistan and Pakistan; *** Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam;
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of IMF data from April and July 2014.

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The group of developed countries has noted a recovery with respect to the most important recipient of
Polish exports – the EU markets, where GDP has increased throughout the entire year 2013 by 0.2%,
after decreasing by 0.3% in 2012. Economic growth has been recorded on the markets in question from
Q3, 2013 onwards. The economy of the Eurozone has experienced a less dynamic growth; GDP growth
was recorded only in the 4th quarter of 2013, while throughout the entire year it has decreased by 0.4%,
compared to a 0.7% decline in 2012. Results for the 1st quarter of 2014 show that GDP growth in the EU
and in the Eurozone has accelerated.
Although the economic growth in the United States has dropped to 1.9% (compared to 2.8% in the
previous year), in the second half of 2013 it has managed to significantly pick up the pace, mainly as a
result of the dynamic growth in exports and the temporary increase in reserves. In Japan, the GDP
growth amounted to 1.5%, which was slightly higher than in the previous year when it amounted to
1.4%.
The economic recovery experienced in developed countries, in particular on EU markets, is likely to be
maintained and the subsequent quarters of 2014 should bring about an increase in terms of economic
growth. In 2014, the economic growth on developed markets is predicted at the level of 1.8%; in the
USA it is expected to reach the level of 1.7%, in the EU – the level of 1.6% and in the Eurozone – the
level of 1.1%. However, these forecasts are subject to a certain degree of uncertainty, mainly in the
context of the escalation of the crisis in the Ukraine and its impact on the relations between the EU, the
United States and the Russian Federation.
The slackening of economic growth in developing and emerging countries throughout the whole year
was largely the result of the decreased growth rate in the second half of the year, resulting from the
impact of two opposing trends. On the one hand, exports have increased, fuelled by the economic
recovery in developed countries and currency depreciation, while on the other hand the level of
investment has dropped.
GDP growth in the Chinese economy amounted to 7.7% (similar to the previous year). The Indian
economy has accelerated and recorded an increase of 5%, as compared to 4.7% in 2012, whereas a
decline has been recorded in South-east Asian countries – ASEAN-5, where in 2013 GDP grew by
5.2%, i.e. 1 p.p. less than in the previous year. Despite this fact, the Asian markets still remain world
leaders with respect to economic growth.
A significantly higher decline in growth was recorded in the countries of the Commonwealth of
Independent States, especially in Russia – from 3.4% in 2012 to 1.3% in 2013. The current situation of
the Russian economy indicates that in 2014 Russia may experience a near-zero economic growth.
Despite the fact that throughout the several previous years global trade has been highly sensitive to
disruptions of the economic cycle, in 2013 global trade has increased by 3.1%, i.e. slightly more than in
the previous year (when it has grown by 2.8%), despite a slight decline in the global GDP growth. The
results achieved in 2013 have confirmed the trend which involved a more dynamic growth in terms of
turnover in developing economies that could be seen in the last couple of years. The export of goods
and services of these countries grew by 4.4% (as compared to 4.2% in the previous year), while in
developed countries the growth thereof amounted to 2.3% (2.1% in 2012). The imports on developed
markets has grown by 1.4%, as compared to 1.1% in the previous year, while on developing markets
import growth has remained at the level from the previous year, i.e. 5.7%.
As a consequence of the dominant position of EU markets with respect to Poland’s foreign trade
turnover (accounting for 75% of exports and 58.5% of imports), the economic conditions prevailing on

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the market in question constitute the primary determining factor for our foreign trade activities. The
changes which have occurred with respect to this group of markets are relatively favourable and are
therefore welcomed with enthusiasm.
According to Eurostat data, the EU GDP has increased by 0.1% during the entire year 2013, following a
0.4% decline experienced in 2012. The recovery on these markets has become apparent in the second
half of 2013 and during the first months of 2014. Following the GDP decrease recorded on the EU
markets since Q2 2012, the third quarter of 2013 brought about a slight increase thereof (up by 0.2%);
this trend has picked up the pace in Q4 2013 and Q1 2014, with the GDP increasing by 1.1% and 1.4%
respectively.
The Eurozone economy is growing at a slightly slower pace; a GDP increase was only experienced in
Q4 2013, following the continuing GDP decline recorded from the beginning of 2012 onwards.
Throughout the entire year 2013, the GDP of the Eurozone has decreased by 0.4%, following a 0.7%
decrease in 2012. In Q1 2014 the GDP increase in the Eurozone amounted to 0.9%.
Compared to the entire Eurozone, the situation in Germany was relatively encouraging, since even
though the GDP growth on the annual scale amounted to 0.4%, the subsequent quarters of 2013
brought about an increase in the pace thereof, amounting to 1.4% and 2.3% in Q4 2013 and Q1 2014
respectively. The economic results were even better on the UK market – Poland’s second-biggest
export partner – which has managed to avoid an economic slump within the last two years. However,
whereas in 2012 the GDP growth of the UK slowed down to 0.3%, the beginning of 2013 brought about
an increase in the growth rate thereof, reaching the value of 1.7% (including 2.7% in Q4) and 3.1% in
Q1 2014.
Table 2 Changes in domestic demand in major markets in the years 2012-2015
2012 2013 2014* 2015*
European Union -1.5 -0.4 1.4 1.9
Euro Area -2.2 -0.9 1.0 1.7
Germany -0.3 0.7 1.8 2.2
France -0.9 0.2 1.0 1.7
Italy -5.0 -2.7 0.3 1.3
United Kingdom 1.2 1.8 2.5 2.4
Netherlands -1.6 -2.5 1.0 0.7
Spain -4.1 -2.8 0.4 1.6
Sweden 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.1
Austria 0.1 -1.2 1.1 1.5
Czech Republic -2.9 -0.8 1.0 2.0
Slovakia -4.5 -0.9 1.7 2.5
Hungary -3.5 0.8 2.5 2.2
POLAND -0.1 -0.1 3.3 3.6
Norway 3.5 3.1 n/d n/d
United States 2.6 1.7 2.6 3.5
* forecast; n/d – no data available
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis Eurostat data from April and July 2014.
The fluctuations in internal demand on the markets of our trading partners have a decisive influence on
the Polish export dynamics. Throughout the entire year 2013, the demand in the EU and the Eurozone
have decreased by 0.4% and 0.9% respectively; however, the results for those markets which pertain to
the second half of the year show a continuous improvement. The pace of the decline in EU internal
demand experienced since the beginning of 2012 has decreased in Q2 2013 and amounted to 0.9%.
During the two subsequent quarters, a demand growth amounting to 0.2% and 0.7% respectively has

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
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been recorded. In the Eurozone, on the other hand, a decrease in demand could be seen as late as
during the third quarter (down by 0.4%); it is only in Q4 that this trend has been reversed.
The demand levels of the German economy have begun to rise as early as Q2 2013, resulting in a 0.7%
increase on the annual scale, compared to a 0.3% decrease recorded in 2012. In the UK, the demand
growth has increased from 1.2% in 2012 to 1.8% in 2013. In the Czech Republic – the third-biggest
among all Polish export markets, year 2013 brought about a slower decline in demand (down to 0.8%
compared to a 2.9% decline in 2012).
1.1.2 Changes in world prices and exchange rates
According to the estimates of the World Trade Organization, in 2013 the global prices of commercial
goods were on average 2% lower than in the previous year, thereby carrying over the trend already
present in 2012, where the prices in question decreased by 3%.
The last two years brought about a decrease in global prices of many basic products. According to IMF
data, the annual average industrial product prices decreased by 1.1% in 2013 (in US dollar terms), while
the prices of basic goods (excluding fuels) went down by 1.2%. At the same time, the prices of crude oil
continue to remain at a relatively stable – albeit high – level, fluctuating at an annual average level of
104-105 dollars per barrel in the years 2011-2013. The IMF estimates that in 2014 the average crude oil
prices will remain at a level of above 104.17 USD/bar., i.e. 0.1% higher than in 2013.
The annual average energy price throughout the entire year 2013 was 2% lower than in the previous
year. During the final months of 2013 and the first months of 2014 the price of energy remained at a
stable level, which was the result of the balancing of two factors, i.e. the falling prices of crude oil on one
hand and the rising prices of natural gas on the other hand, the latter occurring primarily due to harsh
winter in the United States. However – as has already been mentioned – the prices of crude oil continue
to remain at a high level, which is a consequence, inter alia, of the increasing demand pressure in
OPEC countries resulting from the instability in countries such as Libya, Syria and Yemen as well as
due to the sanctions imposed on Iran.
Throughout the entire year 2013, the average prices of metals have decreased by 4.3% following a
16.8% decline in 2012; this has been a consequence of the diminished growth in terms of global
demand for metals (a phenomenon which also encompassed the Chinese economy), coupled with the
dynamic increase in the supply thereof. Analysts believe that prices of metals should be expected to
drop even further in the nearest future; throughout the entire year 2014 the annual average prices of
metals may fall by as much as 5.4%.
Food prices increased by 1.1% in 2013, following the 2.4% decline experienced in 2012. The prices of
agricultural raw materials have also increased, rising by 1.5%; however, in the previous year these
prices declined sharply (down by 12.7%). In terms of the global prices of beverages (including coffee,
tea and cocoa), on the other hand, year 2013 brought about the further decline thereof (down by 11.9%,
following a 18.6% decrease the year before).
The prospects for most types of crops cultivated worldwide are encouraging. It is estimated that the
global production of key cereals and oilseed crops will surpass demand. Furthermore, favourable
weather conditions will translate into a high supply of wheat, corn and rice in China. At the same time,
the reserves of agricultural products, including, in particular, corn, are expected to become replenished.
The only exception is the unfavourable weather conditions experienced in South America at the
beginning of 2014, which may result in some pricing pressure; however, according to IMF estimates, the

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annual average food prices in 2014 will fall by 5.3%, while the prices of agricultural raw materials will
increase by a mere 0.5%. With respect to the prices of beverages, analysts expect them to rise by
15.1%, following two years of sharp price declines.
In 2013 the exchange rate for the US dollar has weakened against many key international currencies.
The upward trend of the US dollar against the Euro (yoy) originating in Q4 2011 was reversed in Q1
2013 (when the US dollar fell by 0.7%); this tendency persisted throughout the entire year 2013. As a
result, the annual average exchange rate for the US dollar in 2013 was lower by 3.2% in relation to the
Euro, whereas in 2012 it was higher by over 8%.
From the third quarter of 2013 onwards, the American currency has also begun to weaken against the
Swiss franc (down by 3.2% in Q3 and by 3% in Q4). This has translated to a depreciation of the US
dollar by 1.2% on the annual scale, compared to a 5.7% appreciation in the previous year.
The US dollar has also lost ground against two important Asian currencies in 2013, i.e. the Chinese
yuan and the South Korean won. The downward trend of the US dollar against the yuan (yoy) has
persisted for a number of years now, although it began to ebb in 2013. Whereas in 2011 and 2012 the
US dollar was weaker by 4.5% and 2.4% respectively in relation to the yuan, in 2013 this figure has
decreased to 1.8%. As regards the South Korean won, the exchange rate for the US dollar was lower by
2.8% in 2013, compared to the 1.7% appreciation thereof recorded in the previous year.
The above trend may be contrasted with the dynamic appreciation of the US dollar against the
Japanese yen. This trend has begun in Q3 2012 and has persisted throughout the entire year 2013. As
a result, the annual average exchange rate for the US dollar amounted to about 97.55 JPY – 22.3%
higher than in the previous year.
The American currency has also gained substantially against the Brazilian real (up by 10.4%), even
though its appreciation was lower than in 2012 (16.8%). The appreciation of the US dollar against the
Russian rouble and the British pound was negligible, at 2.7% and 1.4% respectively. It needs to be
emphasized that the American currency was gaining in strength against the rouble with each quarter of
2013 (rising by 0.8% in Q1 compared to a 4.8% appreciation in the fourth quarter). In the first quarter of
2014 the exchange rate for the US dollar in relation to the Russian currency has already managed to
rise by as much as 15.2%.
1.1.3 Situation in global trade
1.1.3.1 Volume of trade in goods in 2013
The slowdown in the global GDP growth, from 3.5% in 2012 to 3.2% in 2013, did not have a negative
impact on global trade growth. According to IMF data, the volume of world trade in goods and services
increased in 2013 by 3.1%, while in the previous year it amounted to 2.8%
Much like in the previous years, in 2013 the trade growth proved to be much slower in developed
countries. The exports from this group of markets has increased by 2.3% (compared to a 2.1% increase
in 2012), while the volume of exports from developing markets went up by 4.4%, making the growth of
exports from this group of markets 0.2 p.p. faster than in the previous year. An even greater difference
in terms of growth rate was experienced in terms of imports – the volume of imports in developed
countries increased by 1.4%, whereas in developing countries it surged by 5.7%, i.e. four times faster.

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Table 3 Changes in global goods and services trade in 2012-2015
changes of volume
2012 2013 2014* 2015*
World 2.8 3.1 4.0 5.3
Exports
Advanced economies 2.1 2.3 4.2 4.8
Emerging and developing economies 4.2 4.4 5.0 6.2
Imports
Advanced economies 1.1 1.4 3.5 4.6
Emerging and developing economies 5.7 5.7 4.7 6.4
* forecast
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of IMF data from April and July 2014.
On the other hand, according to the data provided by the World Trade Organization, the global
commodities trade volume increased by 2.1%, rising by 2.4% in terms of exports and by 1.8% in terms
of imports. Analysts emphasize that the increase in global exchange in the last two years (up by 2.3% in
2012) remained significantly below the average value for the last 20 years (i.e. 5.3%).
Meanwhile, according to WTO estimates, the global GDP growth (at market exchange rates) slowed
down from 2.3% in 2012 to 2.2% in 2013; in developed countries the GDP growth during that period
went down from 1.3% to 1.1%, while in developing countries it decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%.
Table 4 Changes in GDP and in global volume of trade in goods in the years 2011-2013
GDP Exports Imports
2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013
World 2.8 2.3 2.2 5.5 2.4 2.4 5.3 2.1 1.8
North America 2.0 2.8 1.8 6.5 4.5 2.8 4.4 3.1 1.2
United States 1.8 2.8 1.9 7.1 4.0 2.6 3.8 2.8 0.9
South and Central America 4.5 2.7 3.0 6.8 0.8 0.7 13.1 2.2 2.5
Europe 1.9 -0.1 0.3 5.7 0.8 1.5 3.2 -1.8 -0.5
European Union 1.7 -0.3 0.1 5.8 0.5 1.7 2.8 -1.9 -0.8
Commonwealth of Independent
States
4.9 3.5 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.7 17.2 6.9 -1.1
Africa 1.1 5.7 3.8 -8.4 6.5 -3.4 5.1 12.7 4.0
Middle East 5.7 3.4 3.0 7.8 5.3 1.5 4.5 11.1 4.4
Asia 4.1 4.0 4.2 6.4 2.7 4.6 6.7 3.6 4.4
China 7.7 7.7 7.5 8.8 6.2 7.7 8.8 3.6 9.9
Japan 1.4 1.6 1.5 -0.6 -1.0 -1.8 4.3 3.8 0.6
India 3.2 4.4 5.4 15.0 0.2 7.0 9.7 6.8 -3.0
Newly industrialized economics* 4.1 1.8 2.7 7.8 1.4 3.4 2.7 1.4 3.4
* Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of WTO data from April 2014.
Year 2013 brought about an 1.5% increase in the volume of the export of goods in developed countries;
although this figure constitutes an improvement over 2012 (where it only increased by 1.1%), the goods
export growth continues to remain more than two times lower than in developing countries, where it
attained the value of 3.3%. Favourable changes were recorded in Europe, where the export growth
increased from 0.8% in 2012 to 1.5% in 2013; in the United States export growth experienced a
slowdown, decreasing from 4% to 2.6%, while in Japan it has continued to decline (down to 1%
compared to 1.8% in 2012).
Imports to developed countries fell slightly in 2013 (down by 0.2%) from the stagnant levels recorded in
2012. In this group of markets, significant import slowdown was recorded in Japan (down from 3.8% to

15
0.6%) and the USA (down from 2.8% to 0.9%); in Europe the rate of decline in imports has ebbed,
falling to 0.5% compared to 1.8% in 2012.
The pace of trade growth in developing countries decreased to a level of 3.3% in exports (from 3.8% in
2012) and to a level of 4.4% in imports (from 5.1% in 2012). A significant contributing factor has been
the deterioration of the trading situation in Africa, where the export volume decreased by 3.4%
(compared to a 6.5% increase in the previous year), while the growth of import volume slowed down
from 12.7% to 4%. The Middle East has also experienced a slowdown, with the export volume rising by
1.5% (compared to 5.3% in 2012) and the import volume increasing by 4.4% (compared to 11.1% in
2012).
On the other hand, trade volumes in Asia have increased, with export volumes rising by 4.6%
(compared to 2.7% in 2012) and import volumes increasing by 4.4% (compared to 3.6% in 2012). The
volume of Chinese exports increased by 7.7% (compared to 6.2% in the previous year) while, the
volume of exports from India went up by 7% (compared to 0.2% in 2012). The volume of imports in
China has also increased significantly, rising from 3.6% to 9.9%, whereas in India the import volume fell
by 3% compared to the 6.8% increase seen in 2012.
The export volume growth rate of the Commonwealth of Independent States slowed down slightly (down
from 1% to 0.7%), while the decline in imports amounted to 1.1% (compared to a 6.9% increase seen in
the previous year).
Chart 1 Changes in the volume of trade in goods in selected countries and groups of countries in the
years 2011-2013
Changes in the volume of exports
0
2
4
6
8
2011 2012 2013
% World
EU
CIS
North America
Asia
Changes in the volume of imports
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013
% World
EU
CIS
North America
Asia
Changes in the volume of exports
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2011 2012 2013
% World
USA
Japan
China
India
Changes in the volume of imports
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2011 2012 2013
%
World
USA
Japan
China
India

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
16
1.1.3.2 Global trade in goods at current US dollar prices
The value of global exports of goods expressed in US dollars reached the level of USD 18.8 trillion and
turned out to be 2% higher than in 2012. The growth in global exports in terms of value was slightly
slower than in terms of volume, resulting from a slight decline in traded goods prices.
Taking into account the individual regions of the world, Europe and Asia continue to account for the
most significant part of the trading volume. The contribution of European and Asian markets to both the
global import and export in 2013 amounted to 36% and 32% respectively.
Table 5 Changes in merchandise trade by region and selected economies in the years 2005-2013
(in USD terms)
Exports Imports
2013
2005-
2013
2011 2012 2013 2013
2005-
2013
2011 2012 2013
USD
bn
in %
USD
bn
in %
World 18,270 8 20 0 2 18,395 7 19 0 1
North America 2,417 6 16 4 2 3,198 4 15 3 0
United States 1,579 7 16 4 2 2,331 4 15 3 0
Canada 458 3 16 1 1 474 5 15 2 0
Mexico 380 7 17 6 3 391 7 16 5 3
South and Central
America
737 9 28 -1 -2 773 12 26 3 2
Brazil 242 9 27 -5 0 250 16 24 -2 7
Other 495 9 29 1 -3 522 11 27 5 0
Europe 6,636 5 18 -4 4 6,595 5 17 -6 1
European Union 6,068 5 18 -5 4 6,000 4 17 -6 1
Germany 1,453 5 17 -5 3 1,187 5 19 -7 2
Netherlands 664 6 16 -2 1 590 6 16 -1 0
France 580 3 14 -5 2 681 4 18 -6 1
United Kingdom 541 4 22 -7 15 654 3 15 2 -5
Italy 518 4 17 -4 3 477 3 15 -13 -2
CIS 778 11 33 2 -3 575 13 30 6 1
Russia 523 10 30 1 -1 344 13 30 4 3
Africa 599 9 16 5 -6 628 12 18 9 2
South Africa 96 8 19 -8 -4 126 9 28 2 -1
Other 503 9 16 8 -7 501 13 16 10 3
Oil exporters* 327 8 14 12 -11 199 14 11 10 9
Other 176 10 20 1 2 302 12 18 10 -1
Middle East 1,332 12 40 7 -1 770 11 17 9 4
Asia** 5,769 10 18 2 2 5,855 10 23 4 1
China 2,210 14 20 8 8 1,950 15 25 4 7
Japan 715 2 7 -3 -10 833 6 23 4 -6
India 312 15 34 -2 5 466 16 33 5 -5
Newly industrialized
Asian economies***
1,295 7 16 -1 1 1,300 8 19 0 0
* Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan; ** Asia includes also Australia
and Oceania; *** Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan;
The value of European export of goods increased by 4% to the level of USD 6.64 trillion, while import
increased by 1%, reaching the level of USD 6.6 trillion. EU exports have increased at an identical rate,
attaining the value of USD 6.07 trillion; the export growth rate of the German economy – the biggest
economy in the region – was slightly lower, rising by 3% and attaining the value of USD 1.45 trillion. The
export volumes in other key EU economies increased at a similar or slightly slower pace – in Italy it

17
increased by 3% (attaining the value of USD 518 billion), in France – by 2% (attaining the value of USD
580 billion), in the Netherlands – by 1% (attaining the value of USD 664 billion). Against this
background, the United Kingdom attained excellent results, with a 15% surge in exports (up to USD 541
billion). Imports of the main EU economies increased at a slower pace than exports; imports into the EU
as a whole rose by 1% (reaching the level of USD 6 trillion), with imports to Germany increasing by 2%
(attaining the value of almost USD 1.2 trillion), imports to France rising by 1% (attaining the value of
USD 681 billion) and imports to the Netherlands remaining unchanged (EUR 590 million). On the other
hand, the import volumes for the United Kingdom and Italy have decreased, falling by 5% and 2%
respectively (down to USD 654 billion and USD 477 billion).
In Asia – the world’s second-largest contributor to the volume of trade in goods – exports increased two
times slower than in Europe, i.e. by 2%, attaining the value of USD 5.77 trillion. Import volumes,
meanwhile, amounted to USD 5.86 trillion, i.e. 1% higher than in the previous year. The relatively
moderate growth of exports in this part of the world has been, to a large extent, the result of the decline
in Japanese exports (down by 10% to a level of USD 715 billion) as well as of the fact that the exports in
newly industrialized Asian economies grew by a mere 1% (attaining the level of nearly USD 1.3 trillion).
Against this background, Chinese exports have experienced a dynamic growth (up by 8% to USD 2.2
trillion); the same applied to export volumes of India (up by 5% to USD 312 billion). In 2013, the Chinese
economy has also seen a relatively rapid import growth (up by 7% to approximately USD 1.95 trillion),
which contrasted with the decline in imports in other main economies of the region in question, i.e.
Japan (down by 6% to USD 833 billion) and India (down by 5% to USD 466 billion).
The third most significant region in terms of the contribution to global trade is North America, accounting
for 13% of exports and 17% of imports in 2013. The exports from this region have exceeded USD 2.4
trillion, i.e. 2% higher than in the previous year, while imports attained the value of USD 3.2 trillion,
which was similar to the figures attained for 2012. The figures recorded for the United States were
identical to those of the entire region, i.e. a 2% increase in exports (up to USD 1.58 trillion) and a stable
level of imports (USD 2.33 trillion – virtually unchanged compared to the previous year). During the
period in question, Canadian exports rose by 1% (attaining the value of USD 458 billion), while imports
remained unchanged compared to the previous year (USD 474 billion). The trade volume of Mexico, on
the other hand, increased at a faster pace, rising by 3% both in terms of exports (attaining the level of
USD 380 billion) and imports (USD 391 billion).
Chart 2 Changes in trade in selected groups and countries in the years 2011-2013 (in USD terms)
Changes in exports per continent
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
% World
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Changes in imports per continent
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
% World
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
18
Changes in exports in the EU
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
% World
EU
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Changes in imports in the EU
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
% World
EU
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Changes in exports in the CIS
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011 2012 2013
%
World
CIS
Russia
Changes in imports in the CIS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2012 2013
% World
CIS
Russia
Changes in exports in North America
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
%
World
North America
USA
Canada
Changes in imports in North America
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013
% World
North America
USA
Canada
Changes in exports in Asia
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
2011 2012 2013
%
World
Asia
China
Japan
India
Changes in imports in Asia
-10
0
10
20
30
2011 2012 2013
% World
Asia
China
Japan
India

19
The value of exports from South and Central America in 2013 amounted to USD 737 billion, decreasing
by 2% compared to the results for the previous year, while imports rose by 2% to USD 773 billion. The
goods exports of the biggest economy in the region – Brazil – attained the value of USD 242 billion,
changing very little compared to 2012. Brazilian imports, on the other hand, rose by 7%, attaining the
value of USD 250 billion. The contribution of South and Central America to both streams of the global
trade in goods amounted to 4% in terms of both exports and imports.
Table 6 World's leading exporters and importers of goods in 2013
Value Share
Annual
change
Value Share
Annual
changeExporters
USD bn in %
Importers
USD bn in %
1 China 2,210 11.8 8 1 United States 2,331 12.4 0
2 United States 1,579 8.4 2 2 China 1,950 10.3 7
3 Germany 1,453 7.7 3 3 Germany 1,187 6.3 2
4 Japan 715 3.8 -10 4 Japan 833 4.4 -6
5 Netherlands 664 3.5 1 5 France 681 3.6 1
6 France 580 3.1 2 6 United Kingdom 654 3.5 -5
7 Republic of Korea 560 3.0 2 7 Hong Kong 622 3.3 12
8 United Kingdom 541 2.9 15 8 Netherlands 590 3.1 0
9 Hong Kong 536 2.9 9 9 Republic of Korea 516 2.7 -1
10 Russia 523 2.8 -1 10 Italy 477 2.5 -2
11 Italy 518 2.8 3 11 Canada 474 2.5 0
12 Belgium 469 2.5 5 12 India 466 2.5 -5
13 Canada 458 2.4 1 13 Belgium 450 2.4 3
14 Singapore 410 2.2 0 14 Mexico 391 2.1 3
15 Mexico 380 2.0 3 15 Singapore 373 2.0 -2
16 Saudi Arabia 376 2.0 -3 16 Russia 344 1.8 3
17
United Arab
Emirates
365 1.9 4 17 Spain 339 1.8 0
18 Spain 316 1.7 7 18 Taipei 270 1.4 0
19 India 312 1.7 5 19 Turkey 252 1.3 6
20 Taipei 305 1.6 1 20 Thailand 251 1.3 0
21 Australia 253 1.3 -1 21 Brazil 250 1.3 7
22 Brazil 242 1.3 0 22
United Arab
Emirates
245 1.3 7
23 Switzerland 229 1.2 1 23 Australia 242 1.3 -7
24 Thailand 229 1.2 0 24 Malaysia 206 1.1 5
25 Malaysia 228 1.2 0 25 Poland 204 1.1 2
26 Poland 202 1.1 9 26 Switzerland 200 1.1 1
27 Indonesia 184 1.0 -3 27 Indonesia 187 1.0 -2
28 Austria 174 0.9 5 28 Austria 182 1.0 2
29 Sweden 167 0.9 -3 29 Saudi Arabia 164 0.9 5
30 Czech Republic 161 0.9 3 30 Sweden 158 0.8 -3
Total of above 15,339 81.7 Total of above 15,492 82.1
World* 18,784 100.0 2 World* 18,874 100.0 1
* the data include the value of re-exports and imports for re-exports;
The Commonwealth of Independent States also experienced a decline in exports in 2013; during that
year, this region accounted for 4% of global exports and 3% of global imports. The total value of exports
from the CIS amounted to USD 778 billion – a 3% decrease compared to the previous year. Imports, on
the other hand, grew by 1%, attaining the level of USD 575 billion. The export decline experienced by
the Russian economy – the dominant economy in the region – was less noticeable; Russian exports fell
by 1% (down to USD 523 billion), while imports increased by 3% (attaining the value of USD 344 billion).

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
20
Whereas in 2012 Africa experienced the biggest export surge among all regions (up by 5%), 2013
brought about the sharpest export decline (down by 6% to USD 599 billion). The export surge
experienced in 2012 resulted primarily from the rapid increase in export volumes among the regional
crude oil exporters (i.e. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya,
Nigeria and Sudan), which recorded a 12% increase; in 2013, it was precisely this group of countries
which has dragged down the figures for the entire region as their exports fell by 11% (down to USD 327
billion). African imports, on the other hand, rose by 2% (up to USD 628 billion); the group of crude oil
exporting countries referred to above recorded the most significant increase in imports (up by 9% to
USD 199 billion).
The Middle East accounted for 7% of the global export of goods and 4% of the global import of goods in
2013; the value of exports in this region amounted to USD 1.33 trillion, 1% lower compared to the
previous year, while imports rose by 4%, attaining the value of USD 770 billion.
The world's largest exporter of goods in 2012 was China, which occupies this position for the fifth year
in a row, systematically reinforcing its position as leader. The share of this market in global exports
amounted to 11.8% compared to 11.2% recorded for 2012 and 10.4% recorded for 2011. The
subsequent positions, as far as global export of goods is concerned, have been taken – as was the
case in the previous year – by the United States and Germany, with a share of 8.4% and 7.7%
respectively, maintaining their respective positions from the previous year. On the other hand, due to
the aforementioned 10% decline in exports, the contribution of Japan to global exports fell from 4.4% to
3.8%; in spite of this, Japan has managed to remain the fourth largest global exporter of goods. The
United Kingdom has made notable progress due to its 15% export surge, climbing to the eighth spot
(with a 2.9% share in global exports) compared to the situation in the previous year, when it occupied
the eleventh position (2.6% share).
As far as the 2013 list of the world's leading importers of goods is concerned, it includes – as has been
the case in the previous years – the United States (12.4%), China (10.3%) and Germany (6.3%).
Poland has managed to move up by one spot on the list of global exporters of goods, attaining the 26th
position with a 1.1% share (USD 202 billion). A similar situation occurred with respect to imports – our
country took the 25th spot, attaining a 1.1% share in global imports (USD 204 billion).
The value of global exports of services increased in 2013 by 6%, reaching the level of USD 4.6 trillion.
Services account for nearly 20% of total global trade in goods and services.
In terms of types of services involved, the export of tourism services experienced the most dynamic
increase, rising by 7% to a level of nearly USD 1.2 trillion and accounting for more than one fourth of the
entire global services export volume. The transport services export growth, on the other hand, proved to
be much slower, rising by a mere 2% to a level of USD 900 billion; transport services account for nearly
20% of the entire global services exports.
The so-called miscellaneous commercial services group accounted for approximately 55% of the global
services export volume; the export of the services in question increased by 6% to a level of USD 2.55
trillion, even though the growth rate varied to a certain extent for the individual types of services covered
by this broad category. The value of exports of computer and information services, insurance services
and construction services recorded the most substantial increase, rising by 8%, 8% and 7% respectively
and reaching the value of USD 285 billion, USD 115 billion and USD 330 billion respectively. In contrast,
the most considerable decline was recorded in the case of telecommunication services (down by 2% to

21
a level of USD 115 billion). The export of construction services fell by 3%, attaining the value of USD
105 billion.
Europe accounted for nearly a half of the entire global services export volume (47%), with the volume of
such exports increasing by 6% to a level of USD 2.17 trillion. At the same time, this region also
accounted for 41% of the services import volume, experiencing a 5% increase in imports (up to USD
1.78 trillion). The export of services in the European Union rose by 6% (up to USD 1.98 trillion), while
import increased by 4% (up to USD 1.65 trillion). The best results among the main European economies
were recorded in Germany (USD 287 billion), France (USD 233 billion) and the Netherlands (USD 142
billion); the export of services from each of those countries increased by 8%. The United Kingdom, on
the other hand, recorded the poorest results as exports grew by a mere 1% (attaining the value of USD
290 billion). In terms of import of services, France and Germany have led the way with an 8% and 7%
increase in import volumes respectively (up to USD 188 billion in case of France and USD 315 billion in
case of Germany).
The share of Asian countries in the services trade amounted to 26% in terms of exports and 28% in
terms of imports. The value of Asian export of services increased by 6%, attaining the level of USD 1.21
trillion, while the value of imports rose by 4%, attaining the level of USD 1.23 trillion. The services trade
volume of China increased in the most dynamic fashion, rising by 9% in terms of exports (attaining the
level of USD 207 billion) and by 17% in terms of imports (USD 329 billion). Japan, on the other hand,
posted poor results in terms of both the export and import of services – export rose by a mere 1%
(attaining the value of USD 144 billion), while imports plummeted by 8% (down to USD 161 billion).
North America accounted for 16% of the global export and 13% of the global import of services in 2013.
The export of services in this region increased by 5% (attaining the level of USD 761 billion), while
imports rose by 2% (attaining the level of USD 561 billion). In case of the biggest economy in the region
– the United States – exports increased by 5% compared to the previous year (USD 662 billion), while
imports rose by 3% compared to the previous year (USD 427 billion).
The United States remains the leader of the global services trade – both in terms of exports (with a
share amounting to 14.3%) and imports (9.8%). As has been the case in the previous years, the second
and third positions in terms of the export of services were taken by the United Kingdom (6.3%) and
Germany (6.2%). As far as the import of services is concerned, however, there has been a change with
respect to the second and third positions – as a result of the 17% surge in imports, China has made its
way up to the second spot (with a 7.6% share), overtaking Germany (7.2%).
In 2013, Poland took the 28th spot (up by two positions compared to the previous year) on the list of the
world’s exporters of services, which resulted from a 6% increase in the export of services (up to USD 40
billion, giving our country a 0.9% share in the global export of services). In terms of import, on the other
hand, Poland took the 32nd position – the same as last year – with a share amounting to 0.8%, i.e. USD
34 billion.
1.1.4 Current situation and development prospects for the global economy and
selected markets
The year 2013 brought about a slight global GDP growth slowdown (2.8%, compared to 3% in 2012),
resulting from the weak economic situation on a large number of markets in the first half of the year. In
the second half of 2013, however, the global economy was on the rebound, which is confirmed by the
figures for the first months of 2014. Following a number of years of a profound economic crisis, the
situation in developed countries has recently seen a systematic improvement, including, first and

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
22
foremost, the revival in the field of investments and trade as well as signs of labour market recovery
which continue to appear despite the fact that unemployment levels remain high. At the same time, the
main developing markets have experienced something of a slowdown in terms of growth.
Despite the clearly apparent weaknesses of the current economic revival as well as the relatively high
level of uncertainty which continues to persist, analysts expect the economic growth to accelerate at a
modest pace. With respect to the year 2014, OECD estimates the global GDP growth to reach the level
of 3.4%, increasing to 3.9% in 2015. The economic recovery in OECD countries, supported, inter alia,
through fiscal consolidation reductions, is expected to be more dynamic in the United States than in
Japan and the Eurozone. At the same time, the situation on the labour market is expected to improve in
many economies, even though unemployment rates are expected to fall marginally; in OECD countries,
unemployment rate is likely to decrease from 7.9% – a level at which it has remained in years 2011-
2013 – to 7.5% in 2014 and 7.2% in 2015.
Table 7 Changes in GDP in the world and in selected markets and changes in the global goods and
services trade in the years 2011-2015
2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*
GDP
World 3.7 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.9
OECD countries 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.8
Non-OECD countries 6.4 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.3
United States 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.6 3.5
Euro Area 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 1.2 1.7
Japan -0.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2
China 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.3
World real trade growth 6.5 3.2 3.0 4.4 6.1
* forecast
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of OECD data from May 2014.
Whereas the global trade growth decreased to a level of 3% (compared to 3.2% in 2012), in the next
two years it is expected to rise by 4.4% and 6.1% respectively, significantly exceeding the growth of the
global GDP.
Despite the fact that the position of the United States with respect to the Polish trade volume continues
to remain disproportionally low compared to many other countries with a markedly lower economic
potential, due to the leading role of this country in the global economy, both in terms of scale and the
level of innovation, the United States continues to have a decisive influence on the global economic
situation, including, in particular, the situation on the EU and Eurozone markets which are inextricably
linked to the economy of our country.
In the first half of 2013, the economic growth in the United States was impeded by increased fiscal
consolidation and serious restrictions imposed on federal budget expenditure. As a consequence, the
GDP growth during that period only slightly exceeded the level of 1.2%, which was significantly slower
than in the second half of the previous year, including, in particular, the fourth quarter thereof. Internal
demand constituted a significant factor which contributed to GDP growth, rising by 1.7%. However, the
growth in private consumption was weak throughout the most part of the year, which was, to a
significant extent, due to an increase in tax and wage burdens. This resulted in an incomplete utilization
of production capacities. As a result, the American GDP increased by a mere 1.9% throughout the
entire year 2013, compared to 2.8% in 2012.
Macroeconomic indicators recorded in the second half of 2013 confirm the views of analysts who
believe that the American economy – despite a plethora of problems – has embarked upon a path

23
towards recovery, boosted by residential housing market recovery and an increase in household
incomes which occurred despite the increased restrictions in terms of financing conditions which
impeded the intensification of activities in this sector. OECD analysts expect the U.S. economic growth
to increase to a level of 2.6% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015.
The unemployment rates in the United States have been systematically dropping from the record level
of 10% in 2009 to 7.4% in August 2013, even though the reduction in the number of unemployed
persons interested in continuing their search for jobs, including those who ceased their efforts due to
advancing age, made a significant contribution towards this improvement. The situation on the labour
market is expected to improve, with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.5% in 2014. Inflation is
expected to reach the level of approximately 1.5%.
In 2013, Japan has made strong efforts to overcome the recession which hit its economy in the
previous year as a result of the overall growth slowdown experienced by the global economy as well as
of the tensions in the Chinese economy. Events took a favourable turn with the announcement by the
government of the so-called three-pronged strategy aimed at forcing Japan out of the crisis, providing
support to the household sector and businesses alike and increasing their trust towards the state. In
order to achieve this goal, the government applied instruments and stimuli of a fiscal and monetary
nature. The fiscal package implemented in 2013 as well as new monetary policy framework oriented
towards achieving the inflation target at the level of 2%, supported by the weakening of JPY, resulted in
a clear economic recovery and restored the trust of consumers and the business environment. GDP
growth, supported by recovery in global trade, amounted to 1.5% in 2013.
In a situation where the public debt in 2012 amounted to approximately 220% of the GDP, a detailed
and simultaneously reliable financial consolidation plan oriented towards achieving a budgetary surplus
by 2020 was considered as the document of key importance to maintain confidence with respect to
Japanese finances. It was decided that the tax on consumption should be raised to the level of 10% by
2015. The Bank of Japan was obligated to carry out a “quantitative and qualitative easing” until the
designated inflation target (2%) is achieved and maintained in a manner ensuring a definitive
emergence from deflation.
The strategy of economic growth announced in the middle of 2013 contains mainly reform-oriented
efforts aimed at stimulating economic growth. Despite the fact that the economic expansion of the
country was cooled down somewhat by the export slowdown, it is expected that the improvement of the
situation on the labour market and increasing the confidence of entrepreneurs will partially mitigate the
effects of tightening the fiscal policy which is planned for 2014-2015 in the form of raising the tax on
consumption. Nevertheless, the further increase of fiscal consolidation will hamper GDP growth, which
is expected to amount to a mere 1.2% in the years 2014-2015. At the same time, inflation is expected to
rise, reaching the level of 2.6% in 2014.
In 2013, including, in particular, the first half of the year, the economic activity in most countries of the
Eurozone was decreasing as a result of the advancing fiscal consolidation, weak consumer and
business confidence as well as strict credit policy, especially in peripheral economies of the zone. A
slow recovery was observed only in the second half of the year due to a decline in the fiscal
consolidation rate as well as increased private demand resulting from the improvement of consumer and
business attitudes as well as the curbing of the processes of financial market fragmentation and
disintegration. At the same time, high unemployment and surplus of production capacities have
contributed to the reduction of the inflation pressure. The final quarter of 2013 brought about an
increase in the GDP which has subsequently picked up the pace markedly in Q1 2014. The economic
activity in the Eurozone and the entire European Union is expected to improve, translating, in turn, into

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
24
an increasingly rapid pace of economic growth. For the entire year 2014, OECD analysts expect the
economic growth in the Eurozone to reach the level of 1.2%, compared to the 0.4% decline experienced
in 2013.
The process of fiscal consolidation has continued in accordance with the plan due to high levels of
indebtedness, but at the same time automatic, full utilization of the appropriate financial stabilizers was
introduced. The basic problem of most economies in the Eurozone concerns the effective utilization of
all the available system-wide growth stabilizers in the area of fiscal and monetary policies in order to
avoid the risk of the transformation of low inflation into deflation.
The economic situation on the German market, the most important market for Poland, has improved
gradually in 2013. After a period of progressive slowdown throughout the entire year 2012, year 2013
brought about a slow but systematic increase in optimism, both among households and private
entrepreneurs, which facilitated the achievement of economic growth at the level of 0.5% in 2013, which
could indicate that the German market is overcoming the crisis and embarking upon the path of growth
at a level of approximately 2% in 2014.
In the beginning of 2013, the German economy grew at a moderate pace. Exports to both European
and non-European markets was regarded as underwhelming, while activity in the construction sector
has dwindled due to unfavourable weather conditions during winter months. Despite the low interest
rates, the credit stream for non-finance sector enterprises and households remained at a moderate
level. Uncertainty as to the effective overcoming of crisis in the Eurozone that continued in the first half
of the year was hampering investment decisions and purchases of durable consumer goods. However,
an increase in employment was taking place at the same time, supporting private consumption. The
improvement of business environment confidence in the last months of 2013, especially in the
construction and processing industries, indicates the strengthening of growth trends in the German
economy. While the severely suppressed economic activity in the Eurozone has hampered the recovery
of the German economy, the growth in global trade facilitated the expansion of German exports. At the
present stage, both of these factors – the economic revival in the Eurozone and the increase of the
global trade exchange – may be expected to act as stimulants for the German economy.
An increase in wages and employment as well as low interest rates had a positive influence on domestic
demand, helping maintain a surplus on the current account at a level similar as in the previous year.
The unemployment rate was still subject to a slow downward trend (from 5.5% in 2012 to 5.3% in 2013),
while the consumer price index amounted to 1.6%. In 2014, unemployment rate should continue to
decrease, reaching the level of 5%, while the inflation rate is expected to dwindle to 1.1%.
For the past four years United Kingdom has been the second largest export market of Poland after
Germany, which justifies the increased interest in the development of the economic situation in this
country. The weak condition of trade partners from the Eurozone which has persisted since the
beginning of 2013, the meagre growth of actual incomes and the need to restrict the scale of financial
leveraging in the private sector severely hampered economic growth.
Despite the recovery on the labour market, private consumption was suppressed by the low level of
actual average wages, fragile level of confidence and restrictions in household financing. Private
investments were restricted by weak demand and high uncertainty. Having regard to the meagre
production growth, it can be stated that the situation in the employment market was developing in a
favourable manner and reflected the flexibility of the labour market and the low increase in wages. The
growing use of part-time employment and self-employment allowed to limit the scale of redundancies

25
and unemployment benefits. Budget consolidation measures aimed at limiting the budget deficit in 2014
to the level of 2.3% continued to be applied.
In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate has picked up noticeably, experiencing such
dynamic acceleration that the actual economic growth on the annual scale amounted to 1.7%, which
was substantially higher than in the previous year (0.3%). This result has been facilitated by adjustment
measures in the area of monetary policy and the continuation of beneficial changes on the labour
market which translated into an increase in household consumption. The promising prospects for further
increase of household consumption facilitated a substantial recovery in terms of investments. Base
inflation dropped below 2%, i.e. below the inflation target, while the unemployment rate decreased to
7.6% compared to 7.9% in the previous year.
The year 2014 is expected to bring about a further significant increase in economic activity in the United
Kingdom, contributing towards a 3.2% GDP growth, facilitated not only by private consumption levels,
but also by a substantial surge in investments. This is expected to translate to a further decrease in
unemployment rate, which should drop to a level of 6.9%. Inflation, on the other hand, is expected to
reach the level of 2%.
In 2013 the developing and emerging economies experienced something of a growth slowdown. Among
the main emerging markets (except for Russia, referred to at a later stage in the present document), the
leading position with respect to the Polish trade turnover is held by China. Following the signs of
recovery recorded in the Chinese economy at the end of 2012, it has experienced an unexpected
slowdown in the first quarter of 2013. The source thereof has been the reduced internal demand
resulting from a severe decrease in investment capital as compared to the level from 2012. Investments
in fixed assets have decreased at a relatively slower rate, since the investment slowdown in the industry
and services sectors was compensated by increased spending on housing and infrastructure.
While the increased credit supply and more favourable fiscal policy have resulted in an economic growth
recovery in the middle of 2013, the GDP growth rate remained below the average values from previous
years for the second consecutive year, reaching the level of 7.3%. The return to the path of rapid
growth, at the level of more than 8%, was hampered by a slowdown in exports due to decreased import
demand on the global markets. Consumption in the government sector was inhibited as part of the
campaign designed to limit excessive spending. The reduction of export activity resulted in another
decrease in the surplus on the current account to the level of 2% of the GDP, i.e. to a level similar to
that recorded for 2011. Low inflation, which coincided with economic growth slowdown, proved
conducive to the relaxation of the monetary policy, coupled with the continuous application of the
existing measures necessary to maintain financial stability and the introduction of new ones. The fiscal
policy applied by the authorities is – to a large extent – designed to incentivize development, supporting
sustainable, pro-social growth while at the same time providing for the implementation of structural
reforms. It is stated that there is a need to define a detailed schedule for the implementation thereof,
especially in the area of deregulating interest rates, increasing labour market flexibility by limiting
barriers to internal migration as well as increasing the supply of development land. Having regard to the
above, experts believe that during the next couple of years the growth of the Chinese economy will
decrease slightly, attaining the value of 7.4% in 2014 and 7.3% in 2015.
In 2012, the economic growth in India amounted to 4.9% and constituted the lowest result recorded in
last 10 years. Initially, a gradual economic growth revival was expected to take place in 2013; however,
it has been emphasized that such a situation shall be dependent upon the approval and launch of large
investment projects as well as the successful entry of partial deregulations in the area of foreign direct
investments into force. Despite the underwhelming demand, the base inflation level has remained high

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
26
for a number of years. Tightening the fiscal policy and a new road map for fiscal consolidation
constituted an important objective of the economic policy in 2013 which allowed for a further relaxation
of the monetary policy. Efforts undertaken towards improving the process of directing social transfers to
households were regarded as positive; however, further progress (fiscal system reform, reducing high
energy subsidies) is expected in this area. The existing substantial energy subsidies should be reduced.
The tax system should also be reformed in order to ensure greater and more transparent budgetary
revenues, thereby stimulating private investments and increasing the level of competitiveness. In
particular, there is an urgent need to introduce the indirect tax reform, which is long overdue.
The depreciation of the Indian rupee, performed in the summer of 2013, as well as the strengthening of
external demand, had an impact on the recovery of the growth rate of export of goods and services from
5% in 2012 to 8.5%, coupled with a simultaneous decrease of the import volume growth rate from 6.6%
to -0.8%, which did not, however, translate into an increase of the GDP growth rate which amounted to
4.4% and, despite optimistic expectations from the first half of 2013, turned out be lower than in the
previous year. It is expected, however, that in 2014 the GDP growth will increase, reaching the same
level as in 2012, i.e. 4.9%.
Since the end of 2011, fiscal and monetary stimulators supported the progressing economic recovery,
but the short-term macroeconomic indicators signalled a significant increase of uncertainty in the
Brazilian economy. The unemployment rate remained at a low level. After a few years of balancing
within tolerable limits, inflation exceeded 6% – a level significantly higher than the inflation target set at
4.5%.
The inflow of portfolio capital has decreased, while macro-prudential programmes intended to ensure
the effective management of these assets have been made less stringent. April 2013 marked an
increase in interest rates; the further increase thereof appears necessary in order to restore the target
inflation levels until the end of 2014. The acceleration of the economic growth rate in 2013 to the level of
approximately 3%, contemplated at the beginning of the year, was dependent upon the improvement of
infrastructure, limitation of tax barriers and further deepening of the private long-term financial market.
There were also plans to verify the solutions oriented towards limiting competition from imports as they
hamper medium-term growth in labour efficiency. In reality, despite strong support for national demand
from the monetary and fiscal policy as well as due to a major credit injection, economic growth in 2013
amounted to 2.3% – significantly lower than the initial forecasts and below the economic potential. In
2014 the growth of the Brazilian economy is expected to slow down even further, reaching a level of a
mere 1.8%.
According to the estimates of the IMF, in 2013 the GDP of the CIS countries amounted to USD 2.79
trillion, of which the Russian Federation produced USD 2.12 trillion (75.9%), Kazakhstan – USD 220.3
billion (7.9%) and Ukraine – USD 176.2 billion (6.3%). These three countries account for over 90% of
the economic potential of the CIS countries.
With respect to the CIS countries, year 2013 was yet another year which brought about a relevant
slowdown in economic growth. Average GDP growth rate for the entire group has declined to 2.1% from
3.4% in 2012 and 4.8% in 2011. The decline in economic growth concerned mainly the Russian
Federation, which in 2013 recorded the lowest GDP growth since the crisis in 2009, that is 1.3% as
compared to 3.4% in 2012 and 4.3% in 2011. The low level of economic activity was also characteristic
of countries with strong links to the Russian Federation. In 2013, Ukraine recorded a zero GDP growth
rate following a 0.2% growth in 2012 and a much higher level of growth (5.2%) in 2011. A similar rate of
economic growth slowdown was seen in Belarus, which recorded a GDP growth at the level of 0.9% in
2013, compared to 1.7% in 2012 and 5.5% in 2011.

27
While in recent years the pro-growth factors for the markets of the CIS countries were mostly the high
levels of crude oil and raw materials, the situation in the year 2013 confirmed that maintaining the prices
of energy raw materials at a high level does not guarantee rapid economic growth. This applies, in
particular, to the Russian Federation.
The situation in Russia indicates that the country is no longer able to benefit from favourable external
conditions. Although the price of URALS crude oil exported by Russia remained at a high level (USD
107.9/barrel in 2013, as compared to USD 110.5/barrel in 2012), all economic growth parameters of the
Russian economy have deteriorated, which indicated – not for the first time – that without structural
reforms it was not possible to maintain economic growth on the basis of the current model of raw
material exports.
Industrial production increased in 2013 by a mere 0.3% compared to 2.6% in 2012. Investment sector
and the construction industry have experienced an absolute decline of 0.3% and 1.5% respectively. A
decline in the growth rate of real income of the population from 4.6% to 3.3% and of real wages from
8.4% to 5.2% had an impact on retail trade turnover, the growth rate of which has decreased from 6.3%
in 2012 to 3.9% in 2013. Having regard to the fact that the economic growth in Russia in the recent
years was strongly supported by internal demand, including largely by demand created from budget
funds, the deterioration of the budget situation and subsequent limitation of spending also had an
impact on the decline in economic growth. The situation in Russia had a direct bearing on the economic
condition of other markets of the CIS.
The CIS countries are still characterized by a relatively high level of inflation. No relevant changes have
been recorded in this regard in 2013. The average inflation level amounted to 6.4%, compared to 6.5%
in 2012. It is worth mentioning the situation in Belarus, where due to the quickly increasing depreciation
of the national currency, inflation is maintained at the level of 18.3%. It is a significantly lower value
compared to the hyperinflation at the level of 60% recorded in 2012. High, double digit inflation level can
also be found in Uzbekistan.
Until recently, even in the forecasts from the beginning of 2014, it was assumed that this year the CIS
countries will maintain the economic growth rate at the level similar to the one achieved in 2013. The
low GDP dynamics in Russia which prevailed in the subsequent months as well as the economic
downturn in the Ukraine, however, have caused the prospects for economic growth for the entire region
to deteriorate. In the case of the CIS countries, including, in particular, the Russian Federation, factors
which hamper economic growth are of a structural nature and the elimination thereof would require the
abandonment of the existing model of economic growth based on the dominant role of the state as well
as on fossil fuels and the export thereof, which make the economy dependent upon factors related to
the prevailing market conditions. With respect to the Russian economy, apart from structural factors, the
economic sanctions related to the events in the Ukraine and the resulting capital outflow will have a
substantial impact on the economic slowdown in 2014 (it is estimated that at the end of 2014 the outflow
of capital may reach USD 100-150 billion); other factors to consider in this regard include, among
others, the decline in foreign investments and the reduced supply of technology.
According to the official economic development strategy of the Russian Federation in 2014, the GDP
should increase by 0.5% in accordance with the base variant or by 1.1% in accordance with the
optimistic variant. As a result of the conflict in the Ukraine and the results of the Russian economy
following the first quarter of 2014, international analytical centers are adjusting downwards their
previous forecasts for Russia for 2014. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has
lowered its previous forecast, dated January 2014, from 2.5% to 0% in its most recent forecast
published in May this year. On the other hand, the World Bank, in its forecast from May this year,

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
28
estimates that, in 2014, economic growth in Russia will not exceed 0.5%, which is a level 3 times lower
than in the earlier forecasts. The prospects for the Ukrainian economy remain unfavourable, with an
estimated decline in GDP in 2014 by 5-10%, including a government forecast estimating a 5% decline.
The situation in Belarus is expected to improve gradually since the economic downturn in that country
has mostly been a consequence of a currency crisis as well as the restrictive fiscal and monetary
policies which were necessary to counteract the rampaging inflation. The deteriorating economic
situation in Russia will have a hampering effect on these trends.
The biggest threat to the improvement of economic situation in the CIS countries is the uncertainty
regarding the development of the situation in the Ukraine. Further escalation of adverse events with the
direct or indirect involvement of the Russian Federation will result in further sanctions that will, in turn,
weaken its economy. This situation will have an impact on the conditions of other countries in this
region, including, in particular, Kazakhstan and Belarus, which comprise a customs union with Russia.
1.2 Internal conditions – general situation of the Polish
economy
From a global perspective, year 2013 was characterized by a downward trend in terms of economic
growth. The Eurozone countries have found themselves in a particularly difficult situation since, due to
fiscal problems, they were forced to face a decline in the real GDP (an 0.4% decrease compared to
2012) for the third time in the history of the European common currency area. The GDP of the entire
European Union increased by 0.1%. The low level of economic activity in the EU had an adverse impact
on the labour market, with unemployment exceeding the level of 20% in some countries.
The situation in Poland’s economic environment in 2013 has not been conducive to the creation of
added value in the domestic economy. The persisting difficulties linked to the fiscal problems faced by
Eurozone countries have resulted in an increased level of risk aversion, hampering the scale of foreign
capital influx into the economies of our region. As in the case of the previous years, the negative
influence of the debt crisis on Poland’s image as a country attractive to foreign investors was mitigated
by the progress made in Poland in terms of fiscal consolidation. Efforts made towards decreasing the
relation of public finance sector debt to the GDP have, on one hand, allayed fears of foreign investors
as to the financial condition of the state budget, although on the other hand they have also restricted
Poland’s capacity to generate internal demand by using expenditure stimuli.
Despite the unfavourable external conditions, the economic growth in Poland, at the level of 1.6%, was
one of the highest among all European Union Member States (with Poland finishing in the seventh spot,
behind Latvia, Romania, Lithuania, Malta, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, which have attained a
GDP growth at the level of 4.1%, 3.5%, 3.3%, 2.6%, 2.1% and 1.7% respectively). The first half of the
year brought about a significant economic downturn, the symptoms of which have already become
apparent at the end of 2012, although the situation has gradually improved in the second half of the
year.
Year 2013 marked the further decrease of gross fixed capital formation, resulting from the deferment of
investment decisions due to the economic downturn which was particularly apparent in the first half of
the year. As a consequence, during the entire year the investment rate was 0.2 p.p. lower, exerting a
negative influence on the GDP growth rate in the period under scrutiny.

29
In 2013, the dynamics of individual consumption was lower than in the previous year. This was caused
by an increase in food prices, dwelling costs and fuel prices, as well as by a difficult situation in the
labour market – employment in the corporate sector was lower than in 2012 (even though the situation
has improved slightly at the end of the year); the real wages have increased slightly and inflation
remained at a low level. As a result, internal demand had no impact on economic growth, and the role of
the stimulator of Polish economic growth was played, for yet another year, by foreign demand. Due to
an increase in exports, accompanied by a considerably slower growth in imports, the contribution of net
exports in the entire year 2013 exceeded 1.6 p.p.
The decline in economic activity in the country in the first half of the year was reflected by sector
indicators. Although the growth of sales in industry in 2013 was 2.1% higher than in 2012, in the first
half of the year a decrease was recorded, which was particularly apparent in the first quarter.
Construction output has also declined significantly in the first three quarters of 2013 as a result of the
weak condition of the entire sector caused by the low demand for real estate and the absence of
positive stimuli generated by large-scale infrastructure projects.
Changes in the structure of domestic and foreign demand are strictly related to the role played by
particular sectors of the economy in the economic growth over the years. In 2013, the services sector,
which has been growing for a couple of years, maintained its positive contribution to the creation of
value added. Following the period of economic downturn, during which the contribution of industry to
GDP formation became almost neutral, in the years 2010-2012 the impact of industry on GDP growth
became positive again.
In 2012, the influx of capital related to Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to Poland amounted to
approximately EUR 4.9 billion. According to the initial data of the NBP, in 2013 the balance of capital
inflow in the form of FDI attained a negative value (USD -3.8 billion). The low value of FDI in Poland in
the years 2012-2013 compared to the previous years was mostly the consequence of the outflow of
capital in transit (financial flows, which do not influence employment and production) in the amount of
EUR 4.6 billion.
Studies prepared by international analytical centers show, however, that Poland continues to remain
among the countries having the greatest degree of attractiveness to investors. According to the data
presented in the latest World Investment Report, in years 2014-2016 Poland will be one of the most
attractive economies for foreign investors. Poland occupies the 13th position in the ranking – up by one
spot compared to the 2013 assessment. The list of the 20 countries considered to be the best locations
for FDI contains only 5 European countries, with Poland being the sole representative of the Central and
Eastern Europe region. The attractiveness for investments is also confirmed by a survey prepared by
Ernst&Young. In the European attractiveness survey 2014, Poland took the number one spot in Central
and Eastern Europe with respect to attractiveness for FDI. At the same time, Poland finished first in the
region and third overall in terms of the number of jobs created by FDI (13,862 jobs in total).
One of the industry sectors which systematically attracts foreign direct investments to Poland is the
automotive industry. This particular sector has generated a large amount of interest on the part of
companies from all around the world practically from the very beginning of the period of economic
transformation. At the present stage, services are continuing to gain in importance in the sector
structure of foreign investments in Poland. The entities investing in this sector of the Polish economy
are taking advantage, in particular, of the available human resources. Foreign companies operating in
Poland are extending the capacity of existing business process outsourcing centers (BOP), shared
service centres (SSC), and research and development centers (R+D) as well as opening brand new
ones. Poland remains one of the biggest FDI recipients with respect to this type of services, while the

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
30
employees involved in the provision thereof are serving an increasingly large amount of markets – both
in terms of their geographic location and industry structure.
Chart 3 Inflow of foreign direct investments to Poland in the years 2004-2013 (in EUR million)
-5 000
-3 000
-1 000
1 000
3 000
5 000
7 000
9 000
I II III IV I II IIIIV I II III IV I II IIIIV I II III IV I II III IV I II IIIIV I II III IV I II IIIIV I II III IV
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of quarterly NBP data.
One of the primary external factors having an impact on the Polish foreign trade is currency exchange.
In 2013, the trend of the appreciation of the Euro against the Polish zloty has continued, although the
rate thereof was very limited. Following the 1.6% appreciation of the Euro in 2012, the following two
quarters brought about a 1.8% depreciation thereof in Q1 and a 1.3% depreciation in Q2. From the
second half of 2013 onwards, the Euro has begun to strengthen against the zloty, with the exchange
rate for the Euro being higher by 2.7% and 1.8% in relation to the zloty in Q3 and Q4, respectively. As a
result, on an annual scale the average exchange rate for the Euro amounted to PLN 4.1975, which was
higher by 0.3% compared to 2012. The slight appreciation of the common currency, which holds the
dominant position with respect to the settlements in Polish foreign trade, confirms that it had a relatively
neutral impact on foreign trade in 2013.
On the other hand, in 2013 the zloty has strengthened against the US dollar – a currency in which
approximately 25% of all settlements in Polish exports are made. Following the appreciation of the US
dollar in 2012 by as much as 9.9%, year 2013 brought about a 3% depreciation thereof.
Furthermore, another significant indicator of the level of competitiveness in foreign exchange are
transaction prices in exports and imports. The changes thereof are dependent upon the changes of
foreign currency prices as well as on the nominal effective exchange rate – NEER (the exchange rate of
the Polish zloty against a basket of major currencies, mainly the Euro and the US dollar). Foreign
currency prices increased by 0.7% in 2013, following a 1.3% increase in 2012. The relatively neutral
change in the exchange rates for the Euro was mitigated by the weakening of the US dollar against the
zloty, which has translated into a decrease of the NEER by 0.3% and, as a result, caused the level of
competitiveness of Polish exports to decrease slightly. As a consequence, transaction prices
(expressed in PLN) having a direct bearing on the viability of foreign sales made by Polish exporters
increased by 0.4% in 2013, compared to the 4.3% increase recorded in 2012.

31
Chart 4 Changes in the pace of growth in transaction, foreign currency and NEER prices in exports in
the years 2000-2013 (yoy)
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
%
Changes of transaction prices
Changes of foreign currency prices
Changes of NEER - nominal effective exchange rate
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of NBP and CSO data.

33
2 LONG-TERM CHANGES IN MERCHANDISE TRADE
2.1 Changes during the transformation period
The process of the opening of the Polish economy which has been progressing gradually ever since
the beginning of the transformation period has resulted, inter alia, in dynamic trade growth, which
became particularly apparent in the second decade of economic change. Since 1991, the export of
goods from Poland increased nearly 14 times, reaching the level of USD 206.1 billion in 2013.
Imports, on the other hand, grew 13.5 times, attaining the level of USD 208.8 billion. The deficit in the
trade in goods, which amounted to USD 0.6 billion in 1991, had been systematically increasing in the
first decade of the transformation period. In subsequent years, fluctuations in the level of deficit were
recorded; in 2008, the deficit reached a record level of USD 38.6 billion. In 2013, it was reduced to
USD 2.6 billion – the lowest level since 1991.
The significant increase of the role of exports in the Polish economy and the dynamic growth thereof
in the transformation period has resulted in an increased share of Poland in the global merchandise
trade – from approximately 0.4% in the beginning of the 1990s and 0.5% in the year 2000 to 1.1% in
2013.
Table 8 Polish foreign trade in the years 1991-2013 according to the CSO data
USD million previous year = 100 EUR million previous year = 100
Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports
1991 14,903 15,522 -619 104.1 162.9
1992 13,187 15,913 -2,726 88.5 102.5
1993 14,143 18,834 -4,691 107.2 118.4
1994 17,240 21,596 -4,356 121.9 114.7
1995 22,895 29,050 -6,155 132.8 134.5
1996 24,440 37,137 -12,697 106.7 127.8
1997 25,751 42,307 -16,556 105.4 113.9
1998 28,229 47,054 -18,825 109.6 111.2
1999 27,407 45,911 -18,504 97.1 97.6 25,670 43,050 -17,381
2000 31,596 48,859 -17,263 115.5 106.6 34,322 53,034 -18,712 133.9 123.3
2001 36,040 50,191 -14,151 114.1 102.7 40,316 56,129 -15,813 117.5 105.8
2002 40,943 55,023 -14,079 113.6 109.6 43,330 58,212 -14,882 107.5 103.7
2003 53,450 67,886 -14,435 130.5 123.4 47,399 60,183 -12,784 109.4 103.4
2004 73,781 88,156 -14,375 138.0 129.9 59,698 71,354 -11,656 125.9 118.6
2005 89,378 101,539 -12,161 121.1 115.2 71,423 81,170 -9,746 119.6 113.8
2006 109,584 125,645 -16,061 122.6 123.7 87,926 100,784 -12,858 123.1 124.2
2007 138,785 164,172 -25,387 126.6 130.7 101,839 120,389 -18,551 115.8 119.5
2008 171,860 210,479 -38,619 123.8 128.2 116,244 142,448 -26,204 114.1 118.3
2009 136,641 149,570 -12,929 79.5 71.1 98,218 107,529 -9,311 84.5 75.5
2010 159,758 178,063 -18,305 116.9 119.1 120,373 134,188 -13,815 122.6 124.8
2011 190,247 212,331 -22,083 119.1 119.2 136,694 152,568 -15,875 113.6 113.7
2012 184,661 198,463 -13,803 97.1 93.5 143,456 154,040 -10,584 104.9 101.0
2013 206,138 208,780 -2,642 111.6 105.2 154,994 156,978 -1,984 108.0 101.9
Source: Strategy and Analyses Department of the Ministry of Economy on the basis of CSO data.

MINISTRY OF ECONOMY
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Within the period of the last two decades the value of exports has been growing dynamically,
including, in particular, the period between 2000 and 2008, when the annual average growth rate
amounted to 22.9% (in US dollars terms), while in the years 1991-1999 the value of export increased
on average by 8.1% per annum. The annual average import growth, on the other hand, was more
rapid in the first decade of the transformation period (rising by 20.4% in the period between 1991 and
1999) compared to the period between 2000 and 2008 (when it increased by 18.9%). As has been
the case in the period between 2000 and 2008, following a period of crisis-related trading breakdown
in 2009, the years 2010-2013 brought about a faster pace of export growth (up by 11.2%) than in the
case of import growth (up by 9.2%).
Of particular importance is the fact that the rapid growth of exports has significantly exceeded the
GDP growth rate. Whereas the GDP in years 2000-2013 increased slightly more than twofold (from
EUR 186 billion to EUR 390 billion), the value of exports increased 4.5 times, rising from EUR 34
billion to EUR 155 billion). The relation of the commodities turnover to the GDP – considered as an
indicator which reflects the level of openness of the economy – amounted to 80% in 2013, whereas in
the year 2000 the value thereof remained at a level of approximately 47%, rising from about 35% in
the beginning of the 1990s. This constant trend indicates that the Polish economy and the goods and
services originating from Poland are more and more competitive on the global market.
These results confirm that Poland’s economic growth, including the growth of exports, remains – as is
the case with most economies in Central and Eastern Europe which are undergoing a process of
transformation – strongly dependent upon the influx of foreign investments, which are usually vehicles
for innovation and technology and, at the same time, generate imports related to investment and
supply (which currently constitute about 80% of total imports to Poland). The said imports directly
influence the development of the production potential and the modernisation of the economy, while at
the same time having a decisive influence on the scale of trade deficit. It is therefore possible to state
that an increase in imports – particularly rapid at the beginning of the transformation period – is an
integral and natural part of the development of the Polish economy.
Additionally, it is important to emphasize that an inflow of foreign investments resulting in a growth in
imports generates, after some time, an increase in exports due to the fact that such foreign entities
become involved in export activities. Following the period of the initial years of the transformation
process during which foreign investors were mostly willing to expand their activities into the fertile
Polish domestic market, the last decade brought about – along with the increased inflow of FDI – a
dynamic shift towards exports among foreign investors. It is estimated that at the present stage the
share of entities with foreign capital in Polish exports amounts to approximately 60%.
The rapid export growth rate during the last decade is also the result of the modernization of the
structure thereof, which is also, to a large extent, the consequence of the fact that most FDIs in
Poland remain export-oriented. Whereas during the first decade of the transformation period the
Polish export activities were to a large extent oriented towards traditional branches of industry such
as the textile, metallurgical, timber and mining industry, the second decade brought about significant
changes with respect to exports, which have progressed, to a significant extent, from a traditional
model towards a more developed-oriented one. The share of electromechanical products – products
having the highest degree of hi-tech content – amounted to 39.3% in 2013, which means that it has
nearly doubled compared to the beginning of the 1990s as a consequence of the dynamic growth of
the automotive, machinery and electronics industries which occurred, inter alia, due to the
involvement of foreign investors.

35
During the period in question, the significance of chemical products in exports has also increased
substantially, rising from approximately 8% to 14.1%. The food and agricultural sector has achieved
an undeniable success, which has been particularly apparent following Poland’s EU accession. The
exports in this sector have been rising dynamically in the last couple of years. In 2013 the export of
food products amounted to EUR 20.4 billion – 13.2% of the total Polish exports.
During the analyzed period, the contribution of light industry products towards Polish exports has
seen the most dramatic decline – whereas in the beginning of the 1990s such products accounted for
approximately 15% of our exports, in 2013 they accounted for a mere 3.6%. The significance of
minerals and metallurgical products – products which undergo a low level of processing – has also
decreased markedly. In the beginning of the transformation period, such products accounted for
nearly 30% of all Polish exports in total, whereas in 2013 their contribution towards export volume fell
nearly by half, attaining the level of 15.7%.
The highly competitive nature of Polish exports – and of the Polish economy as a whole – is
confirmed by the fact that the dominant portion of our exports is earmarked for the developed (and
thus more demanding) countries, including, in particular, EU markets which account for approximately
three quarters of all Polish exports, with Germany having been Poland’s most significant trading
partner for many years now (one-fourth of all Polish exports are sold on the German market).
The essential precondition for maintaining the favourable trends in Polish foreign trade and achieving
market success is the efficient pursuit of innovative activities aimed at the creation of state-of-the-art
products and services as well as the constant search for new solutions which satisfy the shifting
needs of domestic and international consumers alike. Increasing the level of innovativeness of the
Polish economy, including the constant modernization of the exported goods and services, constitutes
one of the most significant challenges at the present stage.
2.2 Changes in trade since Poland’s EU accession
The value of the export of goods attained in 2013 (EUR 155 billion) was 2.6 times higher than in
2004, when the value of exports amounted to EUR 59.7 billion. The value of imports into Poland
increased 2.2 times, attaining the value of EUR 157 billion compared to EUR 71.4 billion in 2004.
During that time, export to the entire European Union increased 2.4 times – i.e. slightly slower than
average. It is worth noting that while the exports to the “old EU” countries increased 2.2 times,
attaining the value of nearly EUR 89.9 billion, the exports to new EU Member States (9+3) increased
3.3 times, reaching the value of EUR 26.3 billion. It may therefore be states that whereas the trade
exchange with EU-15 states has been relatively extensive even before Poland’s EU accession, the
first 10 years in the EU allowed Poland to establish closer economic ties with new Member States.
This has translated into an increase of the contribution of EU-12 countries towards the Polish export
volume (from 13.3% to nearly 17%), which coincided with the decrease of the contribution made by
EU-15 countries, which decreased by 9.3 p.p., to a level of 58%.
The significant increase of cooperation with the Visegrád Group countries is particularly apparent, as
evidenced, inter alia, by their rising significance for Polish trading activities. The Czech Republic has
become our third most important trading partner (behind Germany and the United Kingdom), with a
6.2% share in 2013, whereas in 2004 this country ranked only fifth in this regard, with a 4.3% share.
Slovakia has made an even greater progress – in 2004, Slovakia took the 16th spot with a 1.8%
share, while in 2013 it advanced to the 10th position (with a 2.6% share). Hungary, on the other hand,

POLAND 2014 REPORT ON FOREIGN TRADE

POLAND 2014 REPORT ON FOREIGN TRADE

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POLAND 2014 REPORT ON FOREIGN TRADE