SlideShare a Scribd company logo

Climate change in_the_south_caucasus_-_a_visual_synthesis_2011

•
•
Dr Lendy Spires
Dr Lendy Spires
1 of 60
Download to read offline
Climate Change in the South Caucasus A Visual Synthesis
Climate Change in the South Caucasus Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports. This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.­Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support­for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership. Printed on 100% recycled paper. © Zoï Environment Network 2011 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multi-stakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Eu-rope (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Cau-casus and Central Asia. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for edu-cational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose what so ever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the ENVSEC partner organizations and governments.­The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concern-ing the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a com-mercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperat-ing partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. Concept Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett Collages Nina Joerchjan Maps and Graphics Manana Kurtubadze Text and interviews Zurab Jincharadze Design and Layout Manana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert Contributors and Interviewees Ramaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov, ­Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan, ­Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva, Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin­Zakaryan. 2
Contents 6 at a Glance The South Caucasus 18 Scenarious in the Region Climate Change Trends and and Adaptation Measures 40 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 30 Impacts of Climate Change 3
Foreword Climate Change in the Caucas us — A myth no longer In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punish-ment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle. In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods. So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the po-tential impacts of climate change. As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beau-tiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure. With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tra-dition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts. Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Cau-casian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth. Otto Simonett Director, Zoï Environment Network Geneva, January 2012 Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums 4
Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS Armenia Air temperature (last half century) Precipitation and snow (last half century) Desertification Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Melting ice (last half century) Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100) Health Infectious and vector-borne diseases Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005 Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005 Policy instruments, actions and awareness Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009) increase, enchancement decrease, reduction increase in some areas Azerbaijan Georgia Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009. 5
Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA
The South Caucasus at a Glance
Alaverdi Yerevan Gyumri 4 090 Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Tskhinvali Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Glaciers G Sukhumi Sochi Sheki Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Van Poti metres 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 200 0 Depression 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 r e a t Shkhara 5 068 5 033 Kazbek C a u c a s Aragats Ararat 5 165 Elbrus 5 642 Colchis Plain L e s s e r C a u c a s u s Caspian Depression P o n t i c M o u n t a i n s A r m e n i a n H i g h l a n d R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N G E O R G I A A R M E N I A A I R A N Adjara T U R K E Y Abkhazia Nagorno Karabakh Nakhchivan BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri A Z 8 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
GENERAL OVERVIEW The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and east-ern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome. AZOV SEA BLACK SEA CASPIAN SEA RUSSIAN FEDERATION NORTH CAUCASUS GEORGIA SOUTH CAUCASUS LEBANON SYRIA IRAQ CYPRUS ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY IRAN UKRAINE KAZAKHSTAN AZ 150 km 0 Makhachkala Sheki Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Neftchala Baku 100 km 0 s u s Kura-Aras Depression Ta l y s h Absheron Caspian Depression I A N A T I O N A Z E R B A I J A N Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Lankaran The South Caucasus at a Glance 9
Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus Terek Tskhinvali Kura Alaverdi Debed ARMENIA Alazani Kura Lake Sevan Hrazdan Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Inguri Kutaisi Rioni GEORGIA Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sulak RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N CASPIAN Iori Ganja Sheki Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir Nagorno- Karabakh Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Samur AZERBAIJAN Khankendi (Stepanakert) SEA Sumgayit Kura Neftchala Baku Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Kars Poti BLACK SEA Çoruh (Chorokhi) Temperature (°C) 16.0° 13.0° 10.0° 7.0° 5.0° 1.5° -1.0° Rioni Adjara IRAN Kura TURKEY Lake Van Aras Aras 100 km 0 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; World Trade Press, 2007. Geogra phy and Climate Almost every climatic zone is represented in the South Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the region. Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in south-west Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Geor-gia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300 and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and win-ter months due to a more continental climate. 10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus Terek Tskhinvali Kura Alaverdi Debed ARMENIA Alazani Kura Lake Sevan Hrazdan Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Inguri Kutaisi Rioni GEORGIA Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sulak RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Iori Ganja Sheki Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir Nagorno- Karabakh Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Samur AZERBAIJAN Khankendi (Stepanakert) CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Kura Neftchala Baku Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Kars Poti BLACK SEA Çoruh (Chorokhi) Precipitation Kura Rioni TURKEY 2,000 mm 1,600 mm 800 mm 600 mm 400 mm 200 mm less than 200 mm Adjara IRAN Aras Aras Lake Van 100 km 0 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010. The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At alti-tudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies between 24–26°C. The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C. The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azer-baijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in mountainous areas alpine. The average annual tempera-ture varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the low-lands to temperate and cold in the high mountains. The South Caucasus at a Glance 11
BLACK SEA Alazani Lake Sevan Aras Kura Sulak Rioni Rioni Debed Mingechevir reserv. Alaverdi Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri Terek Adjara Abkhazia Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N G E O R G I A T U R K E Y Gyumri A R M E N I A Armavir Yerevan I R A Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Tskhinvali Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sochi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Poti Batumi Floodplains and wetlands Subtropical forests Temperate forests Coniferous forests Steppes Arid deserts and semi-deserts Sub-alpine and alpine meadows Glaciers Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010. Sheki Terek A Z 12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Ecosystems CASPIAN SEA Kura Makhachkala A N T I O N Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. A Z E R B A I J A N I R A N Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku 100 km 0 Sheki Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan Ecosystems The complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Cauca-sus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and semi-deserts of the lowland east. Debed river at Northern Armenia The South Caucasus at a Glance 13
Population dynamics in 1989–2010 Million 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics. Population by age groups in 2010 10% 7% 14% 10% 65 and over 72% 71% 69% 70% 18% 23% 17% 19% Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total Main fig ures Armenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010). Total­area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4 per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population ­migration -1.7 per 1,000 population. Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010). Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8 per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population migration -1.4 per 1,000 population. Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010). Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population mi-gration -18.1 per 1,000 population. Urban and rural population in 2010 Rural 36% 46% 47% 43% Urban 15–64 0–14 64% 54% 53% 57% Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. 14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Population in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Gori Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki AZERBAIJAN Kura TURKEY IRAN Yerevan Gyumri Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Zugdidi Akhaltsikhe Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Adjara Nagorno Karabakh Nakhchivan Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Aras Aras Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 Hrazdan Vagharshapat Shirvan Rural population, 2002 1 dot = 500 inhabitants Urban population, 2009 2 millions 1 million 300,000 100,000–200,000 50,000–100,000 Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. Sumgayit AZ Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN The South Caucasus at a Glance 15
GDP in 1990–2010 GDP per capita in 1990–2010 Million USD USD 50 40 30 20 10 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia GDP by sectors in 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDP by sectors in 2010 Economic Overview Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia ex-perienced GDP by sectors in 2010 Services 31% dramatic economic declines at the start of the 1990s. For example in Armenia, between 1990 and 1993, the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In Azerbaijan GDP fell by an annual average of about 13%, while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994. However, the launching of economic reforms and the achievement of political stability by the second half of the GDP by sectors in 2010 Industry 47% Services 31% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Services 33% Agriculture Azerbaijan 0 Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: World Bank statistics. Source: UN statistics. Services 31% 1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow rapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, they grew at nearly­9% a year from 1997 to 2002. In these countries growth rates were even higher in 2003 and 2004 (see table 16). In Geor-gia economic growth has been unstable in recent years, varying between about 1.8% in 2000, 10.6% in 1997, and 6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010 amounted to 6.4%. Industry 47% Services 31% Agriculture GDP by 22% sectors in 2010 Armenia Industry 61% Services 31% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Source: www.indexmundi.com Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Georgia Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Source: www.indexmundi.com 16 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Land use in 2009 43% 13% 41% Georgia 3% 71% 4% 13% Armenia 12% 55% 32% Azerbaijan 1% 12% Agricultural land Forest Water Other Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA The South Caucasus at a Glance 17
Ararat Valley, ARMENIA
Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus Regi onal Climate Change Trends 1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan (C°) 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Changes of annual air temperature RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA RUSSIAN ARMENIA AZ BLACK SEA CASPIAN GEORGIA FEDERATION AZERBAIJAN IRAN TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Changes of winter air temperature 1.5 1 0.5 0 Changes of summer air temperature 1 0.5 0 (C°) (C°) RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN AZ IRAN TURKEY SEA Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. To study global warming scenarios and risks associ-ated with climate change trends on a regional level in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Secu-rity (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented by UNDP. The project brought together leading na-tional experts engaged in the preparation of the sec-ond national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the UNFCCC. Precipitation and temperature data from the key meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus countries were examined in the following sequence : Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21 stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for 1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for the summer, winter and the whole year. During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the highest registered temperatures during the last 10 years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the last 50 years the data shows a different trend: dur-ing the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Com-munication, 2009). Regional differences are also reported from Azer-baijan, with the highest temperature increase in the Greater Caucasus and Kura‐Aras lowlands, and from Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat low-lands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to Lake Sevan. 20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort) Comparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future Vanadzor Tbilisi Baku 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 Normal 1,283 773 868 1,338 1,349 1,525 508 872 1,037 Warm 682 1,551 2,558 796 843 1,161 463 607 1,063 Relative humidity Very warm 482 736 745 310 545 1,527 331 749 1,858 Hot 1 0 305 4 17 287 13 63 539 Very hot 0 0 113 0 0 0 0 0 3 Extremly hot 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Number of dangerous days 483 736 1,164 314 562 1,814 344 812 2,400 Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Temperature (C°) 26° 27° 28° 29° 30° 31° 32° 33° 34° 35° 36° 37° 38° 39° 40° 41° 90% 28.0 30.7 33.8 37.1 40.7 44.7 48.9 53.5 58.5 63.7 63.7 75.1 81.2 87.7 94.5 101.6 85% 27.9 30.2 32.9 35.9 39.1 42.7 46.6 50.8 55.2 60.0 65.1 70.4 76.1 82.1 88.3 94.9 80% 27.7 29.7 32.1 34.7 37.7 40.9 39.2 37.6 38.7 34.9 33.7 32.6 31.7 30.9 30.3 29.7 44.4 42.3 40.4 38.7 37.1 35.6 34.4 33.3 32.3 31.5 30.8 48.1 45.7 43.5 41.4 39.5 37.8 36.3 34.9 33.8 32.8 32.0 52.2 49.4 46.8 44.4 42.2 40.2 38.4 36.8 35.4 34.3 33.3 56.5 53.3 50.3 47.6 45.1 42.8 40.7 38.8 37.2 35.8 34.7 61.2 57.5 54.2 51.0 48.1 45.5 43.1 41.0 39.1 37.5 36.2 66.1 62.0 58.2 54.7 51.4 48.5 45.8 43.4 41.2 39.3 37.8 71.3 66.8 62.5 58.6 55.0 51.6 48.6 45.9 43.4 41.3 39.4 76.8 82.5 88.6 75% 27.5 29.3 31.4 33.7 36.3 71.8 77.0 82.6 70% 27.3 28.9 30.7 32.7 35.0 67.1 71.9 77.0 65% 27.1 28.5 30.0 31.8 33.8 62.7 67.1 71.7 60% 26.9 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.8 58.7 62.6 66.8 55% 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.9 55.0 58.5 62.3 50% 26.6 27.4 28.5 29.7 31.1 51.6 54.8 58.1 45% 26.4 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.3 48.5 51.3 54.3 40% 26.3 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.7 45.8 48.3 20.9 35% 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.2 43.3 45.5 47.8 30% 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.9 28.8 41.2 43.1 45.1 Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Heat Waves The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate study group constructed a regional model on the urban heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, includ-ing Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index that is a combination of air temperature and relative humid-ity during the warm periods of a year. The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are “translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity (%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990– 2007­time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis, and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analy-sis of the calculation and forecast models show that four out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last 15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dra-matically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.­Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 21
Forecasted changes of annual air temperature 5 4 3.5 in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN) RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA ARMENIA AZ RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA ARMENIA AZ Changes in 2071–2100 3 2.5 Changes in 2041–2070 1.5 Changes in 2011–2040 (C°) (C°) (C°) GEORGIA TURKEY GEORGIA TURKEY RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011 GCM PRECIS Models The analysis of climate change scenarios developed for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool re-vealed that changes of temperature by the end of the century will vary in the range of 3–6°C. According to the forecast made by the most appro-priate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest in-crement in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment, for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia during the winter. The expected increase in mean annual temperature is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower, around 3.6°C. 22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Forecasted changes of annual precipitation 5% 0% -5% 0% -5% -10% -5% -10% -15% -20% in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN) Changes in 2011–2040 RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA AZ Changes in 2041–2070 RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA AZ Changes in 2071–2100 GEORGIA TURKEY ARMENIA GEORGIA TURKEY ARMENIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011 According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus re-gion) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period 2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Geor-gia, rising to 24% for Armenia. The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in sum-mer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in Azerbaijan in the winter. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 23
Changes in average annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared to 1961–1990 Temperature change (C°) 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Precipitation change (mm) 100 50 0 -50 -100 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 -3 -3 -7 1 -3 -5 -7 -8 -19 3 -9 -5 -14 3 -6 compared to 1961–1990 (C°) Temperature change Precipitation change (%) Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. Climate Change Trends in Armenia As a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated devia-tions of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990. According to the study average annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased by 6% during the last 80 years. However, the changes show different trends by regions and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed sta-ble in winter months. During the last 15 years summers were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006. The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia between 1929 and 2008. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in Armenia is quite irregular; north‐eastern and central (­Ararat valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while the southern and north‐western parts and the Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the last 70 years. 24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Changes in average annual Temperature in Azerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990 C° Nakhchivan 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Absheron (Mashtaga) C° C° 2 1 0 -1 -2 C° Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. Ganja 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 1 0 -1 -2 Lankaran 2 1 0 -1 -2 Climate Change Trends in azerbaijan Climate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan­for some decades too. The data from the National ­Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990. As part of the National Communication study, the average annual temperature and precipitation anoma-lies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90 level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to +1.91°C. The average annual precipitation was below the norm in almost all regions. However, differences seemed more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in ­Nakhchivan (17.1%). In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 25
Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia (C°) Temperature change 1951–2002 Precipitation change (%) Source: www.climatewizard.org 120 110 100 90 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi Precipitation change (%) 1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 (C°) Temperature change 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Dedoplistskaro Lentekhi Climate Change Trends in Georgia The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an over-all trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC Second National Communication from Georgia identifies three areas as most sensitive to climate change and there-fore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro district of the Alazani river basin. To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particu-lar. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures, mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening re-gime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005. 26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total from the first to the second period in all three priority re-gions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coeffi-cient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed for four time intervals of different duration (1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Precipitation at different altitudes of the 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Altitude, m Precipitation, mm East part West part Alazani River catchment Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP, UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Alazani River Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 27
Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990 The Khrami-Debed River Basin Red Bridge AZ GEORGIA Khrami ARMENIA 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 5° 5° 5° 5° 5° Dilijan Ijevan Gargar Vanadzor Tsalka Akhalkalaki Dmanisi Bolnisi Tashir Stepanavan Tbilisi Eddikilisa Tumanian Sadakhlo Debed Khrami Khrami Iori Kura Kura Mashavera Tashir 4,8° Precipitation 11% % Increase Temperature C° Decrease 0 10 km Pambak Kvareli 4.9° 8% 5.8° 5% 5.2° 4% 5.3° 12% 8% 5.3° The Alazani River Basin 4.8° 11% 5.4° 7% RUSSIAN FEDERATION GEORGIA Lagodekhi AZERBAIJAN Telavi Gurjaani Tsnori Zakatala Akhmeta Sheki Tbilisi Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani 11% Increase 4.8° Precipitation % Temperature C° Decrease 0 50 km GEORGIA ARMENIA BLACK SEA CASPIAN SEA Alazani river basin AZERBAIJAN Khrami-Debed river basin Changes in hydrological balance in the Khrami-Debed and Ala zani river basi ns The Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two important trans-boundary watersheds and major sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce water resources between Armenia and Georgia (Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Ala-zani). This area is prone to land degradation and de-sertification from the forecast extremes of climate change, translating to economic losses and in-creased poverty for local population The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vul-nerability of these river basins to climate change us-ing PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Plan-ning Model) tools to assess the changes expected in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and an-nual stream flows compared with the baseline years of 1961–1990. The results of the study showed that immediate adaptation measures have to be taken by all ripar-ian countries to overcome the expected losses to the economy of the region. 28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Average annual stream flow in the Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990 267 336 480 924 1,593 Yeddikilisa Tumanyan Gargar Sadakhlo Red Bridge The Khrami-Debed River Basin Red Bridge AZ GEORGIA ARMENIA Khrami Dilijan Ijevan Gargar Vanadzor Tsalka Yeddikilisa Akhalkalaki Dmanisi Bolnisi Tashir Stepanavan Tumanyan Sadakhlo Debed Khrami Khrami Kura Kura Mashavera Tashir Pambak 29% 50% Difference with 2041–2070 (%) Difference with 2071–2100 (%) Section 29% 31% 54% 29% 51% 40% 60% 54% 0 10 km 38% Kvareli 44% 46% 27% 26% 28% 35% Telavi Gurjaani Lagodekhi Zakatala Tsnori Akhmeta Chiauri Confluence Shakriani Zemo Kedi Sheki Tbilisi Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani Agrichai Alazani GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN RUSSIAN FEDERATION Difference with 2020–2050 (%) Difference with 2070–2100 (%) Section The Alazani River Basin 59% 0 50 km Average annual stream flow in the Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990 1,336 1,874 3,118 3,502 Shakriani Chiauri Zemo Kedi Agrichay Changes in average annual stream flows at different points of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990 Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 29
Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006* * Without LULUCF Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia 1990 level Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy 25 24 23 22 21 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 +20% +40% Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. N2O 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CH4 CO2 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 25 24 23 22 21 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. By gases By sectors 1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
NS Yerevan Lake Sevan Iori After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Eco-nomic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual aver-age of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was 12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon di-oxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with BTC, BS Nagorno Karabakh Khankendi (Stepanakert) Kapan Economic map of Armenia Iron Cooper Copper-molybdenum Lead and zinc Chromite Aluminium Coal Fruit-growering BTC BS BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%. The energy sector accounted for the major part of the total­GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy-­related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010). GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY IRAN Gyumri Alaverdi Vanadzor Artik Sisian Goris Meghri Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) Kura Kura Hrazdan Echmiadzin Armavir Ararat NS Aras Aras BTE Debed Mingechevir reserv. Aras hydroscheme reserv. Vineyard Garden Arable land Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline 50 km 0 Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal; Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI. Arme nia : GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 33
Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. By gases By sectors Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 N2O CH4 CO2 1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan 1990 level Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. Baku, AZERBAIJAN Waste Energy -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0 34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Tovuz Ganja Mingechevir Kurdamir Yevlakh BTC, BS Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Dubendi Baku Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani Beylagan GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN IRAN CASPIAN SEA Lake Sevan Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan NS NS From Kazakhstan BTE Nagorno Karabakh Ali-Bairamli Sangachal Economic map of Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Refinery Fishery Chirag Neft Dashlari Salyan Shah-Deniz Absheron RUSSIAN FEDERATION Aras hydroscheme reserv. Azerbaijan Oil Natural gas Gypsum Cement Iron Copper Molybdenum Aluminium Lead and zinc Gold Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Oil field Gas field Vineyard Garden Arable land Cotton growing Sheep breeding 50 km 0 — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South Transport by tanker Oil terminal BTC BS Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008; Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources. Azerbaijan: GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, tex-tiles and the food industry. The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton, wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding. The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres. The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005 amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010). Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 35
Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent By gases N2O CH4 CO2 Waste Agriculture 1990 1995 2000 2005 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Industrial processes Energy Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 By sectors Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006 1990 2000 2006 Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Georgia Energy Agriculture Waste Industrial processes Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 1990 level -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
50 km 0 Anaklia Kulevi Poti Supsa Kobuleti Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Manganese Oil Natural gas Tkibuli Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data. BTC, BS Oil terminal Transport by tanker BTC BS BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South Gypsum Wine-producing Cement GEORGIA Vineyard Garden Arable land Iron Copper Tskhinvali Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Lead and zinc Gold Bituminous coal Brown coal Peat Refinery Fishery RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY Gori Kaspi Kazreti Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Ozurgeti Zestaponi Tkvarcheli Gagra Zugdidi Chiatura Akhaltsikhe Sukhumi Batumi Tbilisi BLACK SEA Terek Terek Sulak Çoruh (Chorokhi) Rioni Rioni Debed Iori Kura Kura Alazani Inguri Adjara Abkhazia Economic map of Georgia BTE NS BTC BS BTE Georgia: GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since 2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining, the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral water.­Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times. Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (in-cluding citrus), and tea. Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply de-crease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continu-ously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990 it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006 did not change significantly compared with 1990. However, the relative importance of different sources has changed (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 37
RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi Hrazdan ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Kapan IRAN Adjara TURKEY Abkhazia Nagorno- Karabakh Inguri Lajanuri Zhinvali Tkvarcheli Khrami 1 Khrami 2 Vardnili-1 Argel Kanaker Mingechevir Shamkir Yenikend Shamb Lachin Tatev Yerevan Mtkvari Gardabani Azerbaijan Tbilisi BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Alazani Inguri Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus Ksani Zestaponi Yerevan Gyumri Metsamor (440 MW) Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Goris Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Van Poti Nakhchivan Hydro Power Plant Thermal Power Plant 1,300 MW 330–500 MW 110–330 MW 10–110 MW 2,400 MW 800–1,200 MW 300–550 MW 110–220 MW Nuclear Power Plant Gas PP Oil PP Transmission substations Transmission lines 500 kV 500 330 kV 220 kV 110 kV kV 330 kV 220 kV 110 kV Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory. AZ 38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
the Energy sect or in the South Caucas us The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are com-monly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation. Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources (hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consump-tion. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006, the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%. Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of 32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Arme-nia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). Key sources of electricity in 2008 (in %) Azerbaijan Nuclear Georgia Natural gas Oil products Hydropower Source: International Energy Agency. Armenia Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N AZERBAIJAN IRAN Mingechevir Shirvan CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Shimal Baku Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Absheron substation Makhachkala Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Baku Neftchala 100 km 0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 39
Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain, Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
Black Sea Coast, Poti Supsa Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Georgia Kutaisi Zugdidi Samtredia Sukhumi Gagra The Rioni River delta The Rioni River lower reaches Sukhumi Coastal zone The Chorokhi River delta Batumi BLACK Kulevi SEA Rioni Inguri Psou Kodori Bzib Chorokhi Tskhenistskali Adjara Abkhazia +0.2 m +0.4 m +0.7 m Lake Paliastomi +40% +60% +40% +1.6° +0.3 m +0.45 m -0.6° +1.3° +60% Rioni Sea level rise for the last century Storm surges for the last half century Sea surface water temperature since 1991 Sedimentation GEORGIA mBS -26 -27 -28 -29 CASPIAN SEA Inundated area (km²) at two differents levels by four segments: 60 Caspian Sea level change in 1840–2005 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 72 2000 Kura-Aras Lowland 372 1118 42 38 60 Neftchala 32 60 -25.0 m BS Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 32 -26.5 m BS Samur Kura RUSSIAN FEDERATION 500 200 3000 1000 AZERBAIJAN 0 200 500 1000 IRAN Sumgayit Astara Baku Aras Caspian Sea Coast, Azerbaijan Ta l ys h Absheron 2000 Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan. Impacts of Climate Change: The Black Sea Coast, Georgia The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of railways and highways stretched along the coast, the im-portant transportation and industrial hubs of port cities­like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of settlements all play a significant role in the regional econ-omy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC­defines several specific sensitive areas along the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2010). Impacts of Climate Change: The Caspia n Sea Coast, Azerbaijan Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to 40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Com-munication, 2010). 42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 3.2 2.1 3.9 3.9 3.3 4–6 2.5–4.5 5–7 5–7 4.1–6.1 -7 7 East shore West shore East shore West shore East shore West shore -15 15 -20 20 -10 10 -25 -15 -5 15 -15 7.5 -7 11 -18 -11 -4 11 -11 6 - 4 +4 -9 -5 -2 5 - 5.5 2.8 Temperature change (C°) Precipitation change (%) Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009. Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 43
Mudflow and landslide high risk zones in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki AZERBAIJAN Lachin Kapan IRAN Abkhazia TURKEY Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Goris Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Adjara Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan Kars Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Kura Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Euphrates Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 Mudflow Landslide Source: Armenian’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia. Lake Van AZ IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuRAL DISASTERS There are major climate change impacts taking place in the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbai-jan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change projection models predict even more increase of extreme weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dra-matic consequences. As a result, the probability of dev-astating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches, river fl oods, fl ash fl oods and mudfl ows, causing human casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the near future (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). 44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Flooding and avalanche high risk zones in the South Caucasus GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki Abkhazia Alazani T U R K E Y A Z E R B A I J A N Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Adjara Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan Kars Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Aras Aras Kura Sulak Samur Euphrates Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 IRAN Flood Avalanche Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010); SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb. RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Terek AZ Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea, abundance of water resources, larger amount of ­annual and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The damage caused by the flooding during the last three years was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and inten-sity of avalanches has been detected since the last dec-ades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About 53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall, economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage­caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD 330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010). Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Glacier Melti ng 1972 2002 In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002. Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia. Glacier melti ng in the Caucas us Glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatolo-gists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sea-level rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org) says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50% during the last century and will decrease more severely in the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water resources for local communities, and play a significant role in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more im-portant in calculating overall impact. Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the chang-es in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evi-dence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information concerning the latter stages is limited. However those stud-ies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus (Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers GEORGIA Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes, Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin (Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Cau-casus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indi-cates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid- 1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record. 46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Glaciers melting in south part of the Central Caucasus 500 m 0 1 km Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011). Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971 Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus Glacier line 0 in 1985 in 2000 RUSSIAN FEDERATION Shkhelda Glacier Bzhedukh Glacier Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006). Kashkatash Glacier Bashkara Glacier N Djankuat Glacier Glacier boundary in 2009 Laboda Glacier GEORGIA Zopkhito Glacier N In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the South slope of the central Caucasus­­— ­the Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971 ( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the image­is a combination of ­CORONA imagery dating from 1971, ­a SPOT image of 2007 and a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008. Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011). In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring gla-ciers in the central Caucasus between 1985 ( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier ( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat rates in the Caucasus Source : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006). Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused their study also on the central part of the Greater Cauca-sus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito­gla-cier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (south-ern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in- tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experi-enced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011). Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47
RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Tskhinvali Gori Poti Lechkhumi Samegrelo Guria Impact of Climate Change on Winegr owing Zones of Georgia Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia. Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cul-tivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine produc-tion more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia,­2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine pro-duction, which was very popular among the former Soviet states and always highly prized. Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder-ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, min-eral- rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of en-demic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Commu-nication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and specific weather extremes caused by global climate change that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grape-growing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably. 48 Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia Winegrowing area (existing and potential) Landslide area Mudflow area Flooding area Drought area Red, white and sparkling wines Hystorical-geographycal border Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001. 50 km 0 ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY GEORGIA Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Sukhumi Tbilisi Batumi BLACK SEA Terek Terek Sulak Rioni Rioni Debed Iori Kura Kura Alazani Inguri Mingechevir reserv. Zemo Svaneti Kvemo Svaneti Racha Khevi Khevsureti Mtiuleti Tusheti Pshavi Shida Kartli Kvemo Kakheti Kartli Javakheti Imereti Achara Samtskhe Tori Abkhazia Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures Grape Varieties 49 Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009 thousand ha 16.5 15 Area 37.4 Armenia Percent of agriculture land Azerbaijan Georgia 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Year Books, 2010.
Number of tourists in the Upper Svaneti 6,200 13,000 2011 2010 Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011 Million 3 2 1 0 2000 2002 2004 Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency. 2006 2008 2010 Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011) 26,000 (prognosed) 2009 in 2009–2011 THE Impact of Climate Change on GEORGIA’S Tourist Sect or: Upper Svaneti The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popu-lar tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant historical monuments and its exceptional cultural herit-age are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity. Access to this region has never been easy though, due to its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia (the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navi-gation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian airports, as well as some international destinations. The number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland 50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Inguri Potential impact of climate change in the Upper Svaneti touristic zone Inguri UNESCO World Heritage Site Inguri Kheledula Laskadura Tskhenistskali Nakra Nenskra Dolra Tsaneri Mulkhra Khudoni reserv. (projected) Kasleti Khobistskali Mestiachala Tita Khaishi Ipari Naki Mazeri Ienashi Iskari Mestia Zhabeshi Lakhiri Tsvirmi Ieli Adishi Iprari Chazhashi Tsana Mele Tvibi Lentekhi Tsanashi Mananauri Dolra Ushba L e k h z i r Tsaneri Laila Shkhelda 4,368 m Ushba 4,710 m Shkhara 5,068 m Tetnuldi 4,852 m Gistola 4,853 m Laila 4008 m S v a n e t i r a n g e E g r i s i r a n g e G r e a t C a u c a s u s Hatsvali Avalanche hazard Landslide hazard Glaciers Forest area Svaneti priority conservation area (WWF-Caucasus proposal) Motor road Dirt road Airport Historical monument Very strong Ski resort Strong Moderate 10 km 0 Dolra Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps. GEORGIA resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been restored. However, an increased number of tourists will also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-systems in coming years. This will become an even more sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns, with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation de-crease, are cause for serious concerns. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51
Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN IRAN Abkhazia Adjara TURKEY Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Kura Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Alazani Inguri Yerevan Gyumri Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Lentekhi Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Sheki Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Poti Tskhenistskali Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise Depletion of water resources Land degradation and desertification Glaciers melting Depopulation due to increase natural disasters Spread of malaria Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010 and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe. AZ 52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Index of vulnerability to climate change* Index of vulnerability to climate change* Sensitivity to climate change Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity Tajikistan Albania Kyrgystan ARMENIA GEORGIA Tajikistan Uzbekistan AZERBAIJAN Turkmenistan ARMENIA Turkey Moldova Serbia Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Russia Bulgaria Bosnia Kazakhstan Romania Ukraine Belarus Croatia Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Kazakhstan Slovakia Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 10 Sensitivity to climate change Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity Increasing sensitivity and exposure Adaptation capacity Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009. Makhachkala RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Sheki AZERBAIJAN IRAN CASPIAN SEA Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Baku Neftchala 100 km 0 *Vulnerability to climate change is a combination of: i) exposure to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change rela-tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate 8 change, 6 e.g. 4 renewable 2 water 0 resources, -2 -agriculture 4 -6 and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to re-spond Increasing to weather sensitivity shocks and and exposure variability. Adaptation capacity Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009. Albania Kyrgystan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Turkey Moldova Serbia Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Russia Bulgaria Bosnia Romania Ukraine Belarus Croatia Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Slovakia Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia 10 GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53
Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus land and water Land contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, saliniza-tion of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, deple-tion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus) lack of safe and good quality of drinking water. Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health Water resources Agriculture Land degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus), salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Cas-pian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production, degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones. Impact on livelihood and food security Food security Biodiversity Social problems FLOODS AND NATURAL DISASTERS Increased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley, Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods, avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands. Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary problems, deterioration of social conditions 54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
FORESTS, FAUNA AND FLORA Displacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires, degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity. Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture, human health sea and coastal Sea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diver-sity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus). Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport and other infrastructure, tourism PEOPLE AND WELLBEING Depopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases. Threat to human life, health and social conditions Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus 55
Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP. Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network. Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle. ­J. Hydrol.,­282( 1–4), 164–176. Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris. Georgian National Tourism Agency. Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi. GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion. GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune: www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31 Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia. Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June 2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia. Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011): www.commersant.ge Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N. and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431– 459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/ Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South ­Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163. State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal. State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia. References Main background documents: First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia. Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia. Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change (2000). National Climate Research Centre. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic. Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations frame-work convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research Centre. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Minis-try of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia. Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011). ENVSEC, UNDP. Additional references: Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3. Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in trans-boundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011. Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA): www.azenerji.com. Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages similaires Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424. Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008. 56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010: www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml; www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_ files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department: www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com Institute for Atmospheric Physics: www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749 Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org International Energy Agency: www.iea.org PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org Photos: Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums: www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007. Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007 Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V. State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ­mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia. Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late- 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, ­Russia/ Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176. StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009. World Trade Press, 2007. 1:50,000 Topographic maps. Online databases and information sources: Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic: www.eco.gov.az Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service: www.meteo.am National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan: www.azstat.org National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010: www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010 References 57
Abbreviations and Glossary Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists of Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Baltic Sea Caucasus Environment Outlook Series of American strategic reconnaissance satel-lites produced in 1959–1972 Global climate model for climate research. The model was given its name as a combination of its origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and the place of development of its parameterisation package, Hamburg. The Environment and Security Initiative Global Climate Change Processes Global Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Georgian Lari Global Energy Network Institute Greenhouse Gas Global Resource Information Database One of the global circulation model (GCMs) Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmos-phere- ocean general circulation model developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom) Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Hydrothermal Coefficient Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives glob-al- mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output. SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses a scaling method to produce climate and climate change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid. APESA AZ BS CEO CORONA ECHAM ENVSEC GCCP GCM GDP GEF GEL GENI GHG GRID HAD300 HADCM HADCM3 HTC LULUCF MAGICC/ SCENGEN MENR MEP Mil PP PRECIS SoE SPOT TWh UN UNDP UNESCO UNFCCC USD WEAP WHO Chemical Combinations CO₂ CH₄ N₂O Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Ministry of Environment Protection Million Power Plant In French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the Hadley Centre’s regional climate State of the Environment In French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation — high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observa-tion satellite system operating from space Terawatt hour United Nations United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cul-tural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United States Dollar Water Evaluation and Planning Model World Health Organization Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide 58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publica-tion, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight: beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards, fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradi-tion of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent. But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The ­answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork ­deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the ­Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern ele-ments, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there, however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique herit-age. There may still be time. Abbreviation/Nina Joerchjan 59
International Environment House Chemin de Balexert 9 CH-1219 Châtelaine Geneva, Switzerland Zoï Environment Network Tel. +41 22 917 83 42 www.zoinet.org enzoi@zoinet.org

Recommended

Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_enEb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Dr Lendy Spires
 
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Bank Reform Supervision France
Bank Reform Supervision FranceBank Reform Supervision France
Bank Reform Supervision France
Dr Lendy Spires
 
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development EffectivenessNEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
Dr Lendy Spires
 
CAADP Toolkit
CAADP Toolkit CAADP Toolkit
CAADP Toolkit
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Working with aboriginal
Working with aboriginalWorking with aboriginal
Working with aboriginal
Dr Lendy Spires
 
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS 2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
Dr Lendy Spires
 

Recommended

Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_enEb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Eb provisional agenda-dp2014-l.1_en
Dr Lendy Spires
 
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
First africa forum on science, technology and innovation for youth employment...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
UNGA Resolution 69/16 - Programme of activities for the implementation of the...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Bank Reform Supervision France
Bank Reform Supervision FranceBank Reform Supervision France
Bank Reform Supervision France
Dr Lendy Spires
 
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development EffectivenessNEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
NEPAD: Africa Action Plan on Development Effectiveness
Dr Lendy Spires
 
CAADP Toolkit
CAADP Toolkit CAADP Toolkit
CAADP Toolkit
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Working with aboriginal
Working with aboriginalWorking with aboriginal
Working with aboriginal
Dr Lendy Spires
 
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS 2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
2014 IBRAHIM INDEX OF AFRICAN GOVERNANCE (IIAG) KEY FINDINGS
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Ga2 final documentation
Ga2 final documentationGa2 final documentation
Ga2 final documentation
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Parents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in educationParents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in education
Dr Lendy Spires
 
229603 e
229603 e229603 e
229603 e
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013 Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Dr Lendy Spires
 
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Aral sea case for water and green growth
Aral sea case for water and green growthAral sea case for water and green growth
Aral sea case for water and green growth
GWP CACENA
 
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armeniaCombating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
Varduhi Surmalyan
 
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdfZulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
ZiyaNecefli
 
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the PopulationThe Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
ijtsrd
 
Jqi1471
Jqi1471Jqi1471
Jqi1471
homayoun khoshravan
 
A0420104
A0420104A0420104
A0420104
IOSR Journals
 
A0420104
A0420104A0420104
A0420104
IOSR Journals
 

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Parents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in educationParents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in education
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013 Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Dr Lendy Spires
 
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
Dr Lendy Spires
 

Viewers also liked (7)

Ga2 final documentation
Ga2 final documentationGa2 final documentation
Ga2 final documentation
 
Parents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in educationParents, family, community involvement in education
Parents, family, community involvement in education
 
229603 e
229603 e229603 e
229603 e
 
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013 Global Corruption Barometer 2013
Global Corruption Barometer 2013
 
Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013Mcdonald david honours_2013
Mcdonald david honours_2013
 
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
Illegal logging in_ukraine_-_diagnostic_audit_2010
 
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN AFRICA: THE FORGOTTEN PEOPLES
 

Similar to Climate change in_the_south_caucasus_-_a_visual_synthesis_2011

Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Dr Lendy Spires
 
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the PopulationThe Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
ijtsrd
 

Similar to Climate change in_the_south_caucasus_-_a_visual_synthesis_2011 (9)

Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
 
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
Environment and security_transforming_risks_into_cooperation_-_the_case_of_th...
 
Aral sea case for water and green growth
Aral sea case for water and green growthAral sea case for water and green growth
Aral sea case for water and green growth
 
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armeniaCombating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
Combating surface and groundwater pollution in armenia
 
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdfZulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
Zulfuqarov, Huseynova Journal of Life Sciences and Biomedicine 2710-4915.pdf
 
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the PopulationThe Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
The Negative Impact of Aral Sea Construction on the Health of the Population
 
Jqi1471
Jqi1471Jqi1471
Jqi1471
 
A0420104
A0420104A0420104
A0420104
 
A0420104
A0420104A0420104
A0420104
 

Climate change in_the_south_caucasus_-_a_visual_synthesis_2011

  • 1. Climate Change in the South Caucasus A Visual Synthesis
  • 2. Climate Change in the South Caucasus Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports. This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.­Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support­for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership. Printed on 100% recycled paper. © Zoï Environment Network 2011 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multi-stakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Eu-rope (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Cau-casus and Central Asia. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for edu-cational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. Zoï Environment Network would appreciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose what so ever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted. The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the ENVSEC partner organizations and governments.­The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concern-ing the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a com-mercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperat-ing partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. Concept Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett Collages Nina Joerchjan Maps and Graphics Manana Kurtubadze Text and interviews Zurab Jincharadze Design and Layout Manana Kurtubadze, Maria Libert Contributors and Interviewees Ramaz Chitanava, Nickolai Denisov, Harald Egerer, Farda Imanov, ­Medea Inashvili, Alex Kirby, Nato Kutaladze, Hamlet Melkonyan, ­Maharram Mehtiyev, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Marina Pandoeva, Marina Shvangiradze, Vahagn Tonoyan, Emil Tsereteli, Asif Verdiyev, Benjamin­Zakaryan. 2
  • 3. Contents 6 at a Glance The South Caucasus 18 Scenarious in the Region Climate Change Trends and and Adaptation Measures 40 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 30 Impacts of Climate Change 3
  • 4. Foreword Climate Change in the Caucas us — A myth no longer In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punish-ment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle. In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods. So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the po-tential impacts of climate change. As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beau-tiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure. With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tra-dition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts. Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Cau-casian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth. Otto Simonett Director, Zoï Environment Network Geneva, January 2012 Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums 4
  • 5. Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS Armenia Air temperature (last half century) Precipitation and snow (last half century) Desertification Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Melting ice (last half century) Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100) Health Infectious and vector-borne diseases Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005 Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005 Policy instruments, actions and awareness Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009) increase, enchancement decrease, reduction increase in some areas Azerbaijan Georgia Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009. 5
  • 6. Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA
  • 7. The South Caucasus at a Glance
  • 8. Alaverdi Yerevan Gyumri 4 090 Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Tskhinvali Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Glaciers G Sukhumi Sochi Sheki Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Van Poti metres 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 200 0 Depression 0 -500 -1,000 -1,500 r e a t Shkhara 5 068 5 033 Kazbek C a u c a s Aragats Ararat 5 165 Elbrus 5 642 Colchis Plain L e s s e r C a u c a s u s Caspian Depression P o n t i c M o u n t a i n s A r m e n i a n H i g h l a n d R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N G E O R G I A A R M E N I A A I R A N Adjara T U R K E Y Abkhazia Nagorno Karabakh Nakhchivan BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri A Z 8 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 9. GENERAL OVERVIEW The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and east-ern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome. AZOV SEA BLACK SEA CASPIAN SEA RUSSIAN FEDERATION NORTH CAUCASUS GEORGIA SOUTH CAUCASUS LEBANON SYRIA IRAQ CYPRUS ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY IRAN UKRAINE KAZAKHSTAN AZ 150 km 0 Makhachkala Sheki Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Neftchala Baku 100 km 0 s u s Kura-Aras Depression Ta l y s h Absheron Caspian Depression I A N A T I O N A Z E R B A I J A N Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Lankaran The South Caucasus at a Glance 9
  • 10. Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus Terek Tskhinvali Kura Alaverdi Debed ARMENIA Alazani Kura Lake Sevan Hrazdan Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Inguri Kutaisi Rioni GEORGIA Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sulak RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N CASPIAN Iori Ganja Sheki Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir Nagorno- Karabakh Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Samur AZERBAIJAN Khankendi (Stepanakert) SEA Sumgayit Kura Neftchala Baku Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Kars Poti BLACK SEA Çoruh (Chorokhi) Temperature (°C) 16.0° 13.0° 10.0° 7.0° 5.0° 1.5° -1.0° Rioni Adjara IRAN Kura TURKEY Lake Van Aras Aras 100 km 0 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; World Trade Press, 2007. Geogra phy and Climate Almost every climatic zone is represented in the South Caucasus except for savannas and tropical forests. To the North, the Great Caucasus range protects the region from the direct penetration of cold air. The circulation of these air masses has mainly determined the precipitation regime all over the region. Precipitation decreases from west to east and mountains generally receive higher amounts than low-lying areas. The absolute maximum annual rainfall is 4,100 mm in south-west Georgia (Adjara), whilst the rainfall in southern Geor-gia, Armenia and western Azerbaijan varies between 300 and 800 mm per year. Temperature generally decreases as elevation rises. The highlands of the Lesser Caucasus mountains in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are marked by sharp temperature contrasts between summer and win-ter months due to a more continental climate. 10 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 11. Average Annual Precipitation in the South Caucasus Terek Tskhinvali Kura Alaverdi Debed ARMENIA Alazani Kura Lake Sevan Hrazdan Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Inguri Kutaisi Rioni GEORGIA Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sulak RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Iori Ganja Sheki Mingechevir reserv. Mingechevir Nagorno- Karabakh Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Samur AZERBAIJAN Khankendi (Stepanakert) CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Kura Neftchala Baku Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Kars Poti BLACK SEA Çoruh (Chorokhi) Precipitation Kura Rioni TURKEY 2,000 mm 1,600 mm 800 mm 600 mm 400 mm 200 mm less than 200 mm Adjara IRAN Aras Aras Lake Van 100 km 0 Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010. The average annual temperature in Armenia is 5.5°C. The highest annual average temperature is 12–14°C. At alti-tudes above 2,500 m the average annual temperatures are below zero. The summer is temperate; in July the average temperature is about 16.7°C, and in Ararat valley it varies between 24–26°C. The average annual temperature at the Black Sea shore is 14–15°C, with extremes ranging from +45°C to -15°C. The climate in the plains of East Georgia and most of Azer-baijan is dry : in the lowlands, it is dry subtropical, and in mountainous areas alpine. The average annual tempera-ture varies from 11 to 13°C in the plains, from 2 to 7°C in the mountains, and around 0°C in alpine zones. Depending on the altitude and remoteness from the Caspian Sea, climatic types in Azerbaijan vary from arid subtropical in the low-lands to temperate and cold in the high mountains. The South Caucasus at a Glance 11
  • 12. BLACK SEA Alazani Lake Sevan Aras Kura Sulak Rioni Rioni Debed Mingechevir reserv. Alaverdi Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri Terek Adjara Abkhazia Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N G E O R G I A T U R K E Y Gyumri A R M E N I A Armavir Yerevan I R A Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Tskhinvali Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Sochi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Poti Batumi Floodplains and wetlands Subtropical forests Temperate forests Coniferous forests Steppes Arid deserts and semi-deserts Sub-alpine and alpine meadows Glaciers Sources: Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008; CEO-Caucasus-2002; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010. Sheki Terek A Z 12 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 13. Ecosystems CASPIAN SEA Kura Makhachkala A N T I O N Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. A Z E R B A I J A N I R A N Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku 100 km 0 Sheki Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan Ecosystems The complex topography and diverse vegetation cover of the Cauca-sus is a main reason for an unusually large number of climatic zones and natural ecosystems on a relatively small piece of land like South Caucasus. The region ranges from the subtropical rainy type of forest of the south-east Black Sea coast to the high peaks of the Greater Caucasus, with their glaciers and snow caps, to the steppes and semi-deserts of the lowland east. Debed river at Northern Armenia The South Caucasus at a Glance 13
  • 14. Population dynamics in 1989–2010 Million 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010; World Bank statistics. Population by age groups in 2010 10% 7% 14% 10% 65 and over 72% 71% 69% 70% 18% 23% 17% 19% Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total Main fig ures Armenia: Total Population 3.249 millions (2010). Total­area 29,743 km². Population density 108.4 per km². Life expectancy 74 years. Net population ­migration -1.7 per 1,000 population. Azerbaijan: Total Population 8.997 millions (2010). Total area 86,600 km². Population density 105.8 per km². Life expectancy 70 years. Net population migration -1.4 per 1,000 population. Georgia: Total Population 4.436 millions (2010). Total area 69,700 km². Population density 68.1 per km². Life expectancy 72 years. Net population mi-gration -18.1 per 1,000 population. Urban and rural population in 2010 Rural 36% 46% 47% 43% Urban 15–64 0–14 64% 54% 53% 57% Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. 14 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 15. Population in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Gori Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki AZERBAIJAN Kura TURKEY IRAN Yerevan Gyumri Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Zugdidi Akhaltsikhe Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Abkhazia Batumi Adjara Nagorno Karabakh Nakhchivan Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Aras Aras Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 Hrazdan Vagharshapat Shirvan Rural population, 2002 1 dot = 500 inhabitants Urban population, 2009 2 millions 1 million 300,000 100,000–200,000 50,000–100,000 Sources: CEO-Caucasus 2002; Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. Sumgayit AZ Little Cavemen from Gobustan, AZERBAIJAN The South Caucasus at a Glance 15
  • 16. GDP in 1990–2010 GDP per capita in 1990–2010 Million USD USD 50 40 30 20 10 Azerbaijan Georgia Armenia GDP by sectors in 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GDP by sectors in 2010 Economic Overview Following the disintegration of the former Soviet Union the economies of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia ex-perienced GDP by sectors in 2010 Services 31% dramatic economic declines at the start of the 1990s. For example in Armenia, between 1990 and 1993, the average annual decrease in GDP was about 18%; In Azerbaijan GDP fell by an annual average of about 13%, while in Georgia, it declined by 70–75% from 1991 to 1994. However, the launching of economic reforms and the achievement of political stability by the second half of the GDP by sectors in 2010 Industry 47% Services 31% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Services 33% Agriculture Azerbaijan 0 Azerbaijan Armenia Georgia 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: World Bank statistics. Source: UN statistics. Services 31% 1990s meant the economies started to revive and then grow rapidly. In Armenia and Azerbaijan, they grew at nearly­9% a year from 1997 to 2002. In these countries growth rates were even higher in 2003 and 2004 (see table 16). In Geor-gia economic growth has been unstable in recent years, varying between about 1.8% in 2000, 10.6% in 1997, and 6.2% in 2004. The real growth of GDP of Georgia in 2010 amounted to 6.4%. Industry 47% Services 31% Agriculture GDP by 22% sectors in 2010 Armenia Industry 61% Services 31% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Source: www.indexmundi.com Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Georgia Industry 47% Agriculture 22% Armenia Industry 61% Agriculture 6% Services 33% Azerbaijan Industry 27% Agriculture 11% Services 62% Georgia Source: www.indexmundi.com 16 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 17. Land use in 2009 43% 13% 41% Georgia 3% 71% 4% 13% Armenia 12% 55% 32% Azerbaijan 1% 12% Agricultural land Forest Water Other Sources: Statistical Year Books of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 2010. The Peace Bridge, Tbilisi, GEORGIA The South Caucasus at a Glance 17
  • 19. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region
  • 20. Changes of air temperature in the South Caucasus Regi onal Climate Change Trends 1935–2008 for Armenia, 1936–2005 for Georgia, 1960–2005 for Azerbaijan (C°) 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Changes of annual air temperature RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA RUSSIAN ARMENIA AZ BLACK SEA CASPIAN GEORGIA FEDERATION AZERBAIJAN IRAN TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Changes of winter air temperature 1.5 1 0.5 0 Changes of summer air temperature 1 0.5 0 (C°) (C°) RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN AZ IRAN TURKEY SEA Sources: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. To study global warming scenarios and risks associ-ated with climate change trends on a regional level in the South Caucasus, the Environment and Secu-rity (ENVSEC) Initiative launched a project on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus implemented by UNDP. The project brought together leading na-tional experts engaged in the preparation of the sec-ond national communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia under the UNFCCC. Precipitation and temperature data from the key meteorological stations of the three South Caucasus countries were examined in the following sequence : Armenia — 32 stations for 1935–2008; Georgia — 21 stations for 1936–2005; Azerbaijan — 14 stations for 1960–2005. Temperature changes were assessed for the summer, winter and the whole year. During the period from 1935 to 2009 in Armenia the annual average temperature increased by 0.85ºC, and in Azerbaijan by 0.5 to 0.6ºC since the 1880s, with the highest registered temperatures during the last 10 years. In Georgia from 1906 to 1995 the mean annual air temperature has increased by 0.1 to 0.5ºC in the eastern part of the country, whilst it has decreased by 0.1 to 0.3ºC in the west (Georgia’s Initial National Communication, 1999). However, if calculating for the last 50 years the data shows a different trend: dur-ing the 1957 to 2006 the mean annual temperatures increased by 0.2ºC in the western part and by 0.3ºC in the eastern Georgia (Georgia’s Second National Com-munication, 2009). Regional differences are also reported from Azer-baijan, with the highest temperature increase in the Greater Caucasus and Kura‐Aras lowlands, and from Armenia, with the warmest regions in the Ararat low-lands and in the zone from the border of Georgia to Lake Sevan. 20 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 21. Values of heat Index (human thermal comfort) Comparison of “dangerous” days in Vanadzor, Tbilisi and Baku in the past and future Vanadzor Tbilisi Baku 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 1955–1970 1990–2007 2020–2049 Normal 1,283 773 868 1,338 1,349 1,525 508 872 1,037 Warm 682 1,551 2,558 796 843 1,161 463 607 1,063 Relative humidity Very warm 482 736 745 310 545 1,527 331 749 1,858 Hot 1 0 305 4 17 287 13 63 539 Very hot 0 0 113 0 0 0 0 0 3 Extremly hot 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Number of dangerous days 483 736 1,164 314 562 1,814 344 812 2,400 Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Temperature (C°) 26° 27° 28° 29° 30° 31° 32° 33° 34° 35° 36° 37° 38° 39° 40° 41° 90% 28.0 30.7 33.8 37.1 40.7 44.7 48.9 53.5 58.5 63.7 63.7 75.1 81.2 87.7 94.5 101.6 85% 27.9 30.2 32.9 35.9 39.1 42.7 46.6 50.8 55.2 60.0 65.1 70.4 76.1 82.1 88.3 94.9 80% 27.7 29.7 32.1 34.7 37.7 40.9 39.2 37.6 38.7 34.9 33.7 32.6 31.7 30.9 30.3 29.7 44.4 42.3 40.4 38.7 37.1 35.6 34.4 33.3 32.3 31.5 30.8 48.1 45.7 43.5 41.4 39.5 37.8 36.3 34.9 33.8 32.8 32.0 52.2 49.4 46.8 44.4 42.2 40.2 38.4 36.8 35.4 34.3 33.3 56.5 53.3 50.3 47.6 45.1 42.8 40.7 38.8 37.2 35.8 34.7 61.2 57.5 54.2 51.0 48.1 45.5 43.1 41.0 39.1 37.5 36.2 66.1 62.0 58.2 54.7 51.4 48.5 45.8 43.4 41.2 39.3 37.8 71.3 66.8 62.5 58.6 55.0 51.6 48.6 45.9 43.4 41.3 39.4 76.8 82.5 88.6 75% 27.5 29.3 31.4 33.7 36.3 71.8 77.0 82.6 70% 27.3 28.9 30.7 32.7 35.0 67.1 71.9 77.0 65% 27.1 28.5 30.0 31.8 33.8 62.7 67.1 71.7 60% 26.9 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.8 58.7 62.6 66.8 55% 26.7 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.9 55.0 58.5 62.3 50% 26.6 27.4 28.5 29.7 31.1 51.6 54.8 58.1 45% 26.4 27.1 28.0 29.1 30.3 48.5 51.3 54.3 40% 26.3 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.7 45.8 48.3 20.9 35% 26.0 26.6 27.4 28.2 29.2 43.3 45.5 47.8 30% 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.9 28.8 41.2 43.1 45.1 Note: Exposure to full sunchine can increase heat index values by up to 10°C Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Heat Waves The UNDP/ENVSEC regional climate study group constructed a regional model on the urban heat wave trends for some South Caucasian cities, includ-ing Tbilisi, Baku and Vanadzor. The study assessed one of the important indicators of climate change — the Heat Index that is a combination of air temperature and relative humid-ity during the warm periods of a year. The table above demonstrates how Heat Indexes are “translated” to an actual feeling of human comfort when the temperatures (C°) are combined with the relative humidity (%). The team explored daily meteorological data for warm periods (May to September) of the 1955–1970 and 1990– 2007­time sequences, using PRECIS statistical analysis, and generated a forecast for 2020–2049. The calculation was based on the Global Climate Model — ECHAM. Analy-sis of the calculation and forecast models show that four out of six classes of Heat Indexes have risen during the last 15–20 years (1990–2007) and are expected to increase dra-matically for one of three critical classes (orange/hot class with extreme warning of risk) during the coming decades.­Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 21
  • 22. Forecasted changes of annual air temperature 5 4 3.5 in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN) RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA ARMENIA AZ RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA ARMENIA AZ Changes in 2071–2100 3 2.5 Changes in 2041–2070 1.5 Changes in 2011–2040 (C°) (C°) (C°) GEORGIA TURKEY GEORGIA TURKEY RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011 GCM PRECIS Models The analysis of climate change scenarios developed for all three South Caucasus countries using PRECIS outputs and the MAGICC/SCENGEN modelling tool re-vealed that changes of temperature by the end of the century will vary in the range of 3–6°C. According to the forecast made by the most appro-priate models for the years 2070–2100 the highest in-crement in temperature, 7.7°C, should be anticipated in West Georgia in the summer. The lowest increment, for the same time period, 2.1°C, is expected in Armenia during the winter. The expected increase in mean annual temperature is similar for Armenia and Georgia and is likely to be about 5°C. In Azerbaijan the expected increase is lower, around 3.6°C. 22 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 23. Forecasted changes of annual precipitation 5% 0% -5% 0% -5% -10% -5% -10% -15% -20% in the South Caucasus (by HadCM3 modeling of MAGICC/SCENGEN) Changes in 2011–2040 RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA AZ Changes in 2041–2070 RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN SEA AZ Changes in 2071–2100 GEORGIA TURKEY ARMENIA GEORGIA TURKEY ARMENIA RUSSIAN FEDERATION BLACK SEA CASPIAN AZERBAIJAN IRAN GEORGIA TURKEY SEA ARMENIA AZ Source: UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011 According to the results shown by the HadCM3 climate modelling tool (which is a modification of HAD300 and is considered as best suited model to the Caucasus re-gion) the decrease in annual precipitation in the period 2070–2100 will be around 15% for Azerbaijan and Geor-gia, rising to 24% for Armenia. The highest decrease in precipitation is forecast for Georgia — 80.8% in summer and 68% in spring. The lowest decrease is expected in Azerbaijan, 11% in sum-mer. The highest increase ( 22%) is likely also to be in Azerbaijan in the winter. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 23
  • 24. Changes in average annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, 1940–2008 compared to 1961–1990 Temperature change (C°) 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Precipitation change (mm) 100 50 0 -50 -100 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in Armenia, Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 4 -3 -3 -7 1 -3 -5 -7 -8 -19 3 -9 -5 -14 3 -6 compared to 1961–1990 (C°) Temperature change Precipitation change (%) Sources: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. Climate Change Trends in Armenia As a mountainous country with an arid climate, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change. It’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC estimated devia-tions of annual air temperature and precipitation recorded in 1940–2008 from the average of the period of 1961–1990. According to the study average annual temperatures have increased by 0.85°C, while annual precipitation decreased by 6% during the last 80 years. However, the changes show different trends by regions and seasons. In general, the average air temperature has increased by 10°C in summer months, while it stayed sta-ble in winter months. During the last 15 years summers were extremely hot, especially in 1998, 2000 and 2006. The 2006 is considered the hottest recorded in Armenia between 1929 and 2008. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation changes in Armenia is quite irregular; north‐eastern and central (­Ararat valley) regions of the country have become more arid, while the southern and north‐western parts and the Lake Sevan basin have had a significant increase in precipitation in the last 70 years. 24 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 25. Changes in average annual Temperature in Azerbaijan, 1991–2000 compared to 1961–1990 C° Nakhchivan 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Absheron (Mashtaga) C° C° 2 1 0 -1 -2 C° Sources: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. Ganja 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2 1 0 -1 -2 Lankaran 2 1 0 -1 -2 Climate Change Trends in azerbaijan Climate change trends have been visible in Azerbaijan­for some decades too. The data from the National ­Hydrometeorology Department for 1991–2000 show an increase in temperature by an average 0.41°C, which is three times larger than the increase from 1961 to 1990. As part of the National Communication study, the average annual temperature and precipitation anoma-lies have been analysed in 7 regions of Azerbaijan for the period 1991 to 2000. Compared to the 1961–90 level, temperature anomalies were particularly visible in the Kura-Aras Lowland and ranged from -1.12°C to +1.91°C. The average annual precipitation was below the norm in almost all regions. However, differences seemed more significant in the Kura-Aras Lowland, where they were 14.3% lower, in Ganja-Gazakh (17.7%), and in ­Nakhchivan (17.1%). In summary, over the past 10 years the rainfall level in Azerbaijan has fallen by 9.9%. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 25
  • 26. Changes in annual Temperature and Precipitation in Georgia (C°) Temperature change 1951–2002 Precipitation change (%) Source: www.climatewizard.org 120 110 100 90 7.5 7 6.5 6 5.5 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in Dedoplistskaro and Lentekhi Precipitation change (%) 1990–2005 compared to 1955–1970 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 (C°) Temperature change 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Dedoplistskaro Lentekhi Climate Change Trends in Georgia The latest studies of climate patterns in Georgia show changes of major parameters — mean and extreme air temperatures, relative humidity, moisture regimes, average annual precipitation, etc. — which clearly indicate an over-all trend of changing climate in the region. The UNFCCC Second National Communication from Georgia identifies three areas as most sensitive to climate change and there-fore vulnerable to future extremes: the Black Sea coastal zone, Lower Svaneti (Lentekhi district) and Dedoplistskaro district of the Alazani river basin. To investigate the climate change process in Georgia, a survey of climate parameter trends was undertaken for the whole territory and for the priority regions in particu-lar. The trends of change in mean annual air temperatures, mean annual precipitation totals and in the moistening re-gime were estimated between 1955–1970 and 1990–2005. 26 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 27. The statistical analysis revealed increasing trends in both mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation total from the first to the second period in all three priority re-gions, accompanied by a decrease in hydrothermal coeffi-cient (HTC) in the Dedoplistskaro region, and its increase in the other two priority regions. At the same time, the rates of air temperature and precipitation change in priority regions were assessed for four time intervals of different duration (1906–2005; 1966–2005; 1985–2005 and 1995–2005). This survey demonstrated an exceptionally steep rise in annual air temperature in all three priority regions over the last 20 years. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Precipitation at different altitudes of the 0 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Altitude, m Precipitation, mm East part West part Alazani River catchment Source: Calibration of hydrological model for the Alazani River in WEAP, UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Alazani River Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 27
  • 28. Expected annual changes in air temperatures and precipitation in the Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins 2071–2100 compared with 1961–1990 The Khrami-Debed River Basin Red Bridge AZ GEORGIA Khrami ARMENIA 13% 15% 16% 16% 17% 5° 5° 5° 5° 5° Dilijan Ijevan Gargar Vanadzor Tsalka Akhalkalaki Dmanisi Bolnisi Tashir Stepanavan Tbilisi Eddikilisa Tumanian Sadakhlo Debed Khrami Khrami Iori Kura Kura Mashavera Tashir 4,8° Precipitation 11% % Increase Temperature C° Decrease 0 10 km Pambak Kvareli 4.9° 8% 5.8° 5% 5.2° 4% 5.3° 12% 8% 5.3° The Alazani River Basin 4.8° 11% 5.4° 7% RUSSIAN FEDERATION GEORGIA Lagodekhi AZERBAIJAN Telavi Gurjaani Tsnori Zakatala Akhmeta Sheki Tbilisi Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani 11% Increase 4.8° Precipitation % Temperature C° Decrease 0 50 km GEORGIA ARMENIA BLACK SEA CASPIAN SEA Alazani river basin AZERBAIJAN Khrami-Debed river basin Changes in hydrological balance in the Khrami-Debed and Ala zani river basi ns The Khrami-Debed and Alazani river basins are two important trans-boundary watersheds and major sub-basins of the greater Kura river, sharing scarce water resources between Armenia and Georgia (Khrami-Debed) and Azerbaijan and Georgia (Ala-zani). This area is prone to land degradation and de-sertification from the forecast extremes of climate change, translating to economic losses and in-creased poverty for local population The UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus evaluated the vul-nerability of these river basins to climate change us-ing PRECIS and WEAP (Water Evaluation and Plan-ning Model) tools to assess the changes expected in mean annual temperatures, precipitation and an-nual stream flows compared with the baseline years of 1961–1990. The results of the study showed that immediate adaptation measures have to be taken by all ripar-ian countries to overcome the expected losses to the economy of the region. 28 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 29. Average annual stream flow in the Khrami-Debed River (mln m³) in 1966–1990 267 336 480 924 1,593 Yeddikilisa Tumanyan Gargar Sadakhlo Red Bridge The Khrami-Debed River Basin Red Bridge AZ GEORGIA ARMENIA Khrami Dilijan Ijevan Gargar Vanadzor Tsalka Yeddikilisa Akhalkalaki Dmanisi Bolnisi Tashir Stepanavan Tumanyan Sadakhlo Debed Khrami Khrami Kura Kura Mashavera Tashir Pambak 29% 50% Difference with 2041–2070 (%) Difference with 2071–2100 (%) Section 29% 31% 54% 29% 51% 40% 60% 54% 0 10 km 38% Kvareli 44% 46% 27% 26% 28% 35% Telavi Gurjaani Lagodekhi Zakatala Tsnori Akhmeta Chiauri Confluence Shakriani Zemo Kedi Sheki Tbilisi Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani Agrichai Alazani GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN RUSSIAN FEDERATION Difference with 2020–2050 (%) Difference with 2070–2100 (%) Section The Alazani River Basin 59% 0 50 km Average annual stream flow in the Alazani River (mln m³) in 1966–1990 1,336 1,874 3,118 3,502 Shakriani Chiauri Zemo Kedi Agrichay Changes in average annual stream flows at different points of the Khrami-Debed and Alazani rivers, baseline 1961–1990 Sources: Assessment of vulnerability of water resources to climate change, 2011; Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Climate Change Trends and Scenarios in the Region 29
  • 30. Neft Dashlari (Oily Rocks), AZERBAIJAN
  • 31. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation
  • 32. Greenhouse gas emissions in Armenia, 1990–2006* * Without LULUCF Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Armenia 1990 level Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy 25 24 23 22 21 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 +20% +40% Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. N2O 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CH4 CO2 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent 25 24 23 22 21 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Waste Agriculture Induatrial Processes Energy Source: Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010. By gases By sectors 1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 32 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 33. NS Yerevan Lake Sevan Iori After the sharp economic decline of 1991–1994, Armenia was able to achieve economic stability and growth. Eco-nomic growth in 1995–2000 amounted to an annual aver-age of 5.4%, and in 2001–2006 the average growth rate was 12.4%. These shifts have positively influenced the decline of Armenia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Carbon di-oxide emissions in 2006 declined by 81% compared with BTC, BS Nagorno Karabakh Khankendi (Stepanakert) Kapan Economic map of Armenia Iron Cooper Copper-molybdenum Lead and zinc Chromite Aluminium Coal Fruit-growering BTC BS BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South the 1990 level, methane by 38% and nitrous oxide by 42%. The energy sector accounted for the major part of the total­GHG emissions in 1990–2006. However, energy-­related emissions fell in that period — from 91% in 1990 to 64.7% in 2006 (Armenia’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010). GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY IRAN Gyumri Alaverdi Vanadzor Artik Sisian Goris Meghri Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) Kura Kura Hrazdan Echmiadzin Armavir Ararat NS Aras Aras BTE Debed Mingechevir reserv. Aras hydroscheme reserv. Vineyard Garden Arable land Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline 50 km 0 Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Sources: SoE-Armenia, 2002, GRID-Arendal; Armenia’s Second National Communication, 2010; Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GENI. Arme nia : GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 33
  • 34. Greenhouse gas emissions in Azerbaijan, 1990–2005 Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. By gases By sectors Waste Agriculture Industrial processes Energy 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 N2O CH4 CO2 1990 1995 2000 2005 1990 1995 2000 2005 Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Azerbaijan 1990 level Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010. Baku, AZERBAIJAN Waste Energy -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0 34 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 35. Tovuz Ganja Mingechevir Kurdamir Yevlakh BTC, BS Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Dubendi Baku Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Iori Kura Alazani Beylagan GEORGIA ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN IRAN CASPIAN SEA Lake Sevan Tbilisi AZ Nakhchivan Nakhchivan NS NS From Kazakhstan BTE Nagorno Karabakh Ali-Bairamli Sangachal Economic map of Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Refinery Fishery Chirag Neft Dashlari Salyan Shah-Deniz Absheron RUSSIAN FEDERATION Aras hydroscheme reserv. Azerbaijan Oil Natural gas Gypsum Cement Iron Copper Molybdenum Aluminium Lead and zinc Gold Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Oil field Gas field Vineyard Garden Arable land Cotton growing Sheep breeding 50 km 0 — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan — Baku-Supsa BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South Transport by tanker Oil terminal BTC BS Sources: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Arendal, Caucasus ecoregion, 2008; Azerbaijan international, 11.04.2003; European Tribune; StratOil; Londex Resources. Azerbaijan: GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors The economic potential of Azerbaijan is mainly determined by its oil and gas industry, the production of chemicals and petrochemicals, metallurgy, mechanical engineering, tex-tiles and the food industry. The agricultural sector consists mostly of wheat, cotton, wine, fruit, tobacco, tea, vegetables and cattle breeding. The predominant part of Azerbaijan’s exports comes from oil and oil products, electrical energy, cotton and silk fibres. The level of GHG emissions in Azerbaijan in 2005 amounted to 70.6% of the 1990 base year level. The main sources of CO₂ emissions are the energy and industrial sectors, especially from burning fuel for energy production, oil and gas extraction, transport, and human settlements (Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010). Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 35
  • 36. Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent By gases N2O CH4 CO2 Waste Agriculture 1990 1995 2000 2005 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Industrial processes Energy Million tonnes of CO2 equivalent Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 By sectors Greenhouse gas emissions in Georgia, 1990–2006 1990 2000 2006 Greenhouse gas emissions change from 1990 to 2006 in Georgia Energy Agriculture Waste Industrial processes Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009 1990 level -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0 36 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 37. 50 km 0 Anaklia Kulevi Poti Supsa Kobuleti Metallurgy Chemical industry Engineering and metal-working Production of building materials Manganese Oil Natural gas Tkibuli Source: Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus, 2010; GRID-Tbilisi data. BTC, BS Oil terminal Transport by tanker BTC BS BTE NS — Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan — Baku-Supsa — Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum — North-South Gypsum Wine-producing Cement GEORGIA Vineyard Garden Arable land Iron Copper Tskhinvali Railway Roads Oil pipeline Gas pipeline Lead and zinc Gold Bituminous coal Brown coal Peat Refinery Fishery RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY Gori Kaspi Kazreti Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Ozurgeti Zestaponi Tkvarcheli Gagra Zugdidi Chiatura Akhaltsikhe Sukhumi Batumi Tbilisi BLACK SEA Terek Terek Sulak Çoruh (Chorokhi) Rioni Rioni Debed Iori Kura Kura Alazani Inguri Adjara Abkhazia Economic map of Georgia BTE NS BTC BS BTE Georgia: GHG emissi ons by economic sect ors Georgia’s economic growth has become irreversible since 2004. Georgia’s industry consists of machinery, mining, the chemical industry, ferroalloys, wood, wine and mineral water.­Agriculture has been a leading sector since Soviet times. Traditional crops include grapes, wheat, maize, fruit (in-cluding citrus), and tea. Total GHG emissions in Georgia began to sharply de-crease after 1990. Since 1991, the share of the energy sec-tor in total emissions has been decreasing almost continu-ously. In 2006, its share comprised 45.6%, while in 1990 it had been 76.3%. The share of emissions from industrial processes in 2006 was approximately the same as in 1987, though the actual emissions decreased by about four times. Key sources of GHG emissions in 2000 and 2006 did not change significantly compared with 1990. However, the relative importance of different sources has changed (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009). Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 37
  • 38. RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi Hrazdan ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Kapan IRAN Adjara TURKEY Abkhazia Nagorno- Karabakh Inguri Lajanuri Zhinvali Tkvarcheli Khrami 1 Khrami 2 Vardnili-1 Argel Kanaker Mingechevir Shamkir Yenikend Shamb Lachin Tatev Yerevan Mtkvari Gardabani Azerbaijan Tbilisi BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Alazani Inguri Power Generation and Transmission in the South Caucasus Ksani Zestaponi Yerevan Gyumri Metsamor (440 MW) Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Goris Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Van Poti Nakhchivan Hydro Power Plant Thermal Power Plant 1,300 MW 330–500 MW 110–330 MW 10–110 MW 2,400 MW 800–1,200 MW 300–550 MW 110–220 MW Nuclear Power Plant Gas PP Oil PP Transmission substations Transmission lines 500 kV 500 330 kV 220 kV 110 kV kV 330 kV 220 kV 110 kV Sources: Ministries of Energy and Natural Resources of Armenia and Georgia; GENI; APESA, Global Energy Observatory. AZ 38 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 39. the Energy sect or in the South Caucas us The sources and means of energy generation, despite coexisting in the same region, differ greatly in the South Caucasus countries. In a country rich in fossil fuels, oil products and natural gas are com-monly consumed in Azerbaijan. Energy production there is based on natural gas, fuel oil and hydropower. Thermal power plants account for 89% and hydro-power for 10% of total energy generation. Armenia does not possess its own fuel resources and satisfies its demand for fuel through imports. Its own primary energy resources (hydro, nuclear) cover 31% of the country’s total energy consump-tion. The main type of fuel consumed is natural gas. In 2000–2006, the share of natural gas in total fuel consumption reached 70–79%. Over 80% of Georgia’s electricity is produced by hydropower. The rest mainly comes from thermal power plants, using gas exported from Azerbaijan and Iran. There is an economically viable potential of 32 TWh of hydropower production capacity, one of the largest in the world, of which only 18% is currently being utilized. Georgia became a net electricity exporter in 2007. With its massive unused capacity and its current per capita electricity consumption, one of the lowest in Europe, Georgia can easily increase its electricity exports while satisfying fast-growing domestic electricity consumption, which is rising by 8–9% annually (Second National Communications of Arme-nia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). Key sources of electricity in 2008 (in %) Azerbaijan Nuclear Georgia Natural gas Oil products Hydropower Source: International Energy Agency. Armenia Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N AZERBAIJAN IRAN Mingechevir Shirvan CASPIAN SEA Sumgayit Shimal Baku Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Absheron substation Makhachkala Mingechevir Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Baku Neftchala 100 km 0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change Mitigation 39
  • 40. Hatsvali with Ushba Mountain, Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA
  • 41. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures
  • 42. Black Sea Coast, Poti Supsa Source: Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2009. Georgia Kutaisi Zugdidi Samtredia Sukhumi Gagra The Rioni River delta The Rioni River lower reaches Sukhumi Coastal zone The Chorokhi River delta Batumi BLACK Kulevi SEA Rioni Inguri Psou Kodori Bzib Chorokhi Tskhenistskali Adjara Abkhazia +0.2 m +0.4 m +0.7 m Lake Paliastomi +40% +60% +40% +1.6° +0.3 m +0.45 m -0.6° +1.3° +60% Rioni Sea level rise for the last century Storm surges for the last half century Sea surface water temperature since 1991 Sedimentation GEORGIA mBS -26 -27 -28 -29 CASPIAN SEA Inundated area (km²) at two differents levels by four segments: 60 Caspian Sea level change in 1840–2005 1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 72 2000 Kura-Aras Lowland 372 1118 42 38 60 Neftchala 32 60 -25.0 m BS Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 4 32 -26.5 m BS Samur Kura RUSSIAN FEDERATION 500 200 3000 1000 AZERBAIJAN 0 200 500 1000 IRAN Sumgayit Astara Baku Aras Caspian Sea Coast, Azerbaijan Ta l ys h Absheron 2000 Source: Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication, 2010; MENR-Azerbaijan. Impacts of Climate Change: The Black Sea Coast, Georgia The Georgian Black Sea coastal zone is considered the area most vulnerable to climate change in Georgia. Highly developed coastal infrastructure, with a dense network of railways and highways stretched along the coast, the im-portant transportation and industrial hubs of port cities­like Batumi, Poti and Sukhumi, and the great number of settlements all play a significant role in the regional econ-omy. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC­defines several specific sensitive areas along the coastal zone : Rioni river delta, Chorokhi river delta, the lower reaches of the Rioni river and the Sukhumi coastal area. Some studies suggest the Rioni delta is the most vulnerable area, already experiencing sea level rise and increased storm surges. This situation will trigger more change in the future, with a predicted temperature rise and consequent negative impact on the environment (Georgia’s Second National Communication, 2010). Impacts of Climate Change: The Caspia n Sea Coast, Azerbaijan Sea level fluctuations are a major cause of concern for the Caspian Sea shoreline. As the largest naturally enclosed water body on Earth, with no outflow to the oceans, the Caspian Sea is particularly vulnerable to global climate change processes. Starting from 1961 a level of -28.0 m below sea level (BS) was conditionally taken as the zero point for the Caspian Sea for observation and planning purposes. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication predicts a further increase of sea level for another 30 to 40 years within the range of -26.5 to -25.0 m BS. Projected damage to the economy would be within the magnitude of USD 4.1 bn. Consequently Azerbaijan is preparing to take adaptation measures (Azerbaijan’s Second National Com-munication, 2010). 42 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 43. Changes in seasonal and annual Temperature and Precipitation in the Lake Sevan basin, compared to 1961–1990 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 Winter Spring Summer Autumn Annual 2030 2070 2100 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.8 1.5 3.2 2.1 3.9 3.9 3.3 4–6 2.5–4.5 5–7 5–7 4.1–6.1 -7 7 East shore West shore East shore West shore East shore West shore -15 15 -20 20 -10 10 -25 -15 -5 15 -15 7.5 -7 11 -18 -11 -4 11 -11 6 - 4 +4 -9 -5 -2 5 - 5.5 2.8 Temperature change (C°) Precipitation change (%) Sources: Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009. Calm and nice Lake Sevan, sometimes as stormy as any sea Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 43
  • 44. Mudflow and landslide high risk zones in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki AZERBAIJAN Lachin Kapan IRAN Abkhazia TURKEY Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Alazani Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Goris Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Adjara Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan Kars Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Kura Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Euphrates Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 Mudflow Landslide Source: Armenian’s Second National Communica-tion, 2010; Alizadeh E.K. (2007); MEP-Georgia. Lake Van AZ IMpACT oF CLIMATE ChAnGE: nATuRAL DISASTERS There are major climate change impacts taking place in the South Caucasus, as shown by the observations of the national hydrometeorology services of Armenia, Azerbai-jan and Georgia. In particular, there is a recorded increase in both mean and extreme air temperatures, in addition to changes in rainfall amounts and patterns. Climate change projection models predict even more increase of extreme weather conditions, translating to a heavier and uneven seasonal distribution of precipitation with possible dra-matic consequences. As a result, the probability of dev-astating natural disasters such as landslides, avalanches, river fl oods, fl ash fl oods and mudfl ows, causing human casualties and economic losses, is expected to rise in the near future (Second National Communications of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia). 44 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 45. Flooding and avalanche high risk zones in the South Caucasus GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA Sheki Abkhazia Alazani T U R K E Y A Z E R B A I J A N Yerevan Gyumri Armavir Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Sumgayit Neftchala Baku Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Adjara Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan Kars Poti CASPIAN SEA BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Aras Aras Kura Sulak Samur Euphrates Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Kura Kura Inguri 100 km 0 IRAN Flood Avalanche Source: Armenian’s Second National Communication, 2010; Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. (2010); SoE-Georgia, 2007–2009; ReliefWeb. RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Terek AZ Georgia is particularly exposed to weather extremes, most likely because of its closer proximity to the Black Sea, abundance of water resources, larger amount of ­annual and seasonal precipitation, high soil humidity, etc. The damage caused by the flooding during the last three years was put at USD 65 m. An increasing frequency and inten-sity of avalanches has been detected since the last dec-ades of the 20th century. More than 20,000 people were displaced from their homes between 1970 and 1987. About 53,000 locations damaged by gravitational landslides had been identified by 2009. Mudflows are estimated to cause damage of approximately USD 100 m annually. Overall, economic damage caused by mudflows in Georgia over the period 1987 to 1991 exceeded USD 1 bn; the damage­caused by mudflows from 1995 to 2008 was over USD 330 m (State of the Environment Georgia, 2010). Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 45
  • 46. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE: Glacier Melti ng 1972 2002 In these pictures: Melting of the Laboda Glacier in Georgia: photos taken in 1972 and 2002. Source: Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia. Glacier melti ng in the Caucas us Glaciers are sensitive to climate change. Some climatolo-gists suggest the contribution of melting glaciers to sea-level rise may have been increasing by as much as 27% for the last few decades (Dyurgerov, 2003). The climate change scenarios published by the IPCC predict up to 60% glacier loss in the northern hemisphere by 2050 (Schneeberger et al 2003). The Earth Policy Institute (www.earth-policy.org) says glacial volume in the Caucasus has declined by 50% during the last century and will decrease more severely in the foreseeable future. Glaciers are very important water resources for local communities, and play a significant role in the water budget. Smaller glaciers are known to respond more rapidly to climate change and are therefore more im-portant in calculating overall impact. Glaciers cover an area estimated at around 1,600 km² in the Caucasus. Exact up-to-date information on the chang-es in their mass balance is not available. There is visual evi-dence of glacier recession in the Caucasus, but information concerning the latter stages is limited. However those stud-ies that have focused on glacier change in the Caucasus (Bedford and Barry, 1994) reported a strong retreat trend Laboda-Zopkhito Glaciers GEORGIA Shkelda-Djankuat Glaciers zone for 51 glaciers between 1972 and 1986. Chris R. Stokes, Stephen D. Gurney, Maria Shahgedanova, Victor Popovin (Late 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Cau-casus Mountains, Russia/Georgia) analysed glaciers of the central Caucasus region, extending the analysis of Bedford and Barry, and showed that the retreat trend has continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Melting rates have greatly accelerated since the mid-1990s. Moreover, the study indi-cates that the retreat of Caucasus glaciers from the mid- 1970s to 2000 correlates well with the temperature record. 46 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 47. Glaciers melting in south part of the Central Caucasus 500 m 0 1 km Source: Lambrecht A., et al (2011). Supra-glacial debris cover (trace of glacier) in 1971 Glaciers melting in north part of the Central Caucasus Glacier line 0 in 1985 in 2000 RUSSIAN FEDERATION Shkhelda Glacier Bzhedukh Glacier Source: Stokes, C. R., et al (2006). Kashkatash Glacier Bashkara Glacier N Djankuat Glacier Glacier boundary in 2009 Laboda Glacier GEORGIA Zopkhito Glacier N In this picture: retreat of two glaciers on the South slope of the central Caucasus­­— ­the Loboda and Zopkhito glaciers, between 1971 ( yellow ) and 2009 ( blue ). The data on the image­is a combination of ­CORONA imagery dating from 1971, ­a SPOT image of 2007 and a Digital Globe image ( Google Earth ) of 2008. Source : Lambrecht, A., et al (2011). In this picture: retreat of six neighbouring gla-ciers in the central Caucasus between 1985 ( yellow ) and 2000 ( red ), including Djankuat glacier ( furthest east ), which has an extensive mass balance record, and Shkhelda glacier ( furthest west ) with one of the largest retreat rates in the Caucasus Source : Stokes, C. R., et al (2006). Another group of scientists (Lambrecht et al, 2011) focused their study also on the central part of the Greater Cauca-sus — the Djankuat glacier (Russia) and the Zopkhito­gla-cier (Georgia). The results of the study show that at the southern end of the Caucasus range the exposition (south-ern slope) causes higher radiation input and thus more in- tensive ice melt. However, high cloudiness due to higher radiation input also provides higher precipitation in the south than in the north. As a result, the effective glacier melt is about 20% less in the south. Both regions experi-enced strong glacier area loss during recent decades and a gradual increase in debris cover (Lambrecht, et al, 2011). Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 47
  • 48. RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Tskhinvali Gori Poti Lechkhumi Samegrelo Guria Impact of Climate Change on Winegr owing Zones of Georgia Viticulture and wine production is one of the most viable and oldest agricultural activities that have been carried out for centuries in South Caucasus and particularly Georgia. Both archaeology and history show that Georgia was cul-tivating grapevines and practicing ancient wine produc-tion more than 7,000 years ago (Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia,­2011 — www.samtrest.gov.ge). In many regards Georgia’s identity was closely connected with wine pro-duction, which was very popular among the former Soviet states and always highly prized. Georgia has excellent conditions for viticulture. A moder-ate climate with a sufficient number of sunny days, frost-free winters and moist air, in combination with fertile soils, min-eral- rich and clean spring waters and a vast diversity of en-demic agricultural species provide outstanding conditions for it. The total share of agriculture in the country’s GDP is about 10–14%, with viticulture and wine production playing a very important role (Georgia’s Second National Commu-nication, 2009). However, increasing natural disasters and specific weather extremes caused by global climate change that is already affecting Georgia and especially its grape-growing zones may jeopardize the sector considerably. 48 Potential impact of climate change on winegrowing zones of Georgia Winegrowing area (existing and potential) Landslide area Mudflow area Flooding area Drought area Red, white and sparkling wines Hystorical-geographycal border Source: MEP-Georgia; Georgian Wine booklet, 2001. 50 km 0 ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY GEORGIA Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Sukhumi Tbilisi Batumi BLACK SEA Terek Terek Sulak Rioni Rioni Debed Iori Kura Kura Alazani Inguri Mingechevir reserv. Zemo Svaneti Kvemo Svaneti Racha Khevi Khevsureti Mtiuleti Tusheti Pshavi Shida Kartli Kvemo Kakheti Kartli Javakheti Imereti Achara Samtskhe Tori Abkhazia Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 49. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures Grape Varieties 49 Vineyard area in the South Caucasus in 2009 thousand ha 16.5 15 Area 37.4 Armenia Percent of agriculture land Azerbaijan Georgia 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% Sources: State statistical services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Year Books, 2010.
  • 50. Number of tourists in the Upper Svaneti 6,200 13,000 2011 2010 Number of tourists in Georgia in 2000–2011 Million 3 2 1 0 2000 2002 2004 Source: Georgian National Tourism Agency. 2006 2008 2010 Source: www.komersanti.ge (6.01.2011) 26,000 (prognosed) 2009 in 2009–2011 THE Impact of Climate Change on GEORGIA’S Tourist Sect or: Upper Svaneti The Upper Svaneti region of Georgia has been a very popu-lar tourist destination for a long time. Unique and mostly untouched natural landscapes, high mountains, abundant historical monuments and its exceptional cultural herit-age are only few of the wonders ensuring this popularity. Access to this region has never been easy though, due to its rigid topography and the dilapidated infrastructure in post-Soviet Georgia, exhausted by ethnic conflicts, civil wars and consequent economic devastation. Attention to Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA Svaneti has increased considerably in recent years, after the launch of infrastructure rehabilitation projects and the construction of hotels and a brand new airport in Mestia (the regional capital). The airport now has a modern navi-gation system and connects Svaneti to major Georgian airports, as well as some international destinations. The number of visiting tourists has doubled compared with recent years, since a ski resort (operating for about six months each year) was developed in Hatsvali, a highland 50 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 51. Inguri Potential impact of climate change in the Upper Svaneti touristic zone Inguri UNESCO World Heritage Site Inguri Kheledula Laskadura Tskhenistskali Nakra Nenskra Dolra Tsaneri Mulkhra Khudoni reserv. (projected) Kasleti Khobistskali Mestiachala Tita Khaishi Ipari Naki Mazeri Ienashi Iskari Mestia Zhabeshi Lakhiri Tsvirmi Ieli Adishi Iprari Chazhashi Tsana Mele Tvibi Lentekhi Tsanashi Mananauri Dolra Ushba L e k h z i r Tsaneri Laila Shkhelda 4,368 m Ushba 4,710 m Shkhara 5,068 m Tetnuldi 4,852 m Gistola 4,853 m Laila 4008 m S v a n e t i r a n g e E g r i s i r a n g e G r e a t C a u c a s u s Hatsvali Avalanche hazard Landslide hazard Glaciers Forest area Svaneti priority conservation area (WWF-Caucasus proposal) Motor road Dirt road Airport Historical monument Very strong Ski resort Strong Moderate 10 km 0 Dolra Sources: MEP-Georgia; MENR-Georgia; 1:50,000 Topographic maps. GEORGIA resort close to one of the most charming mountain peaks of Georgia — Ushba (4,710 m above sea level). Access to the UNESCO world heritage site at Ushguli has also been restored. However, an increased number of tourists will also mean increased pressure on the fragile natural eco-systems in coming years. This will become an even more sensitive issue as the region is located in the landslide and avalanche high-risk zone and changing climate patterns, with the predicted temperature rise and precipitation de-crease, are cause for serious concerns. Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 51
  • 52. Potential impact of climate change in the South Caucasus RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N GEORGIA Tskhinvali Alaverdi ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN IRAN Abkhazia Adjara TURKEY Nagorno- Karabakh Nakhchivan BLACK SEA Lake Sevan Lake Van Kura Kura Aras Aras Kura Terek Sulak Samur Rioni Rioni Çoruh (Chorokhi) Debed Mingechevir reserv. Hrazdan Iori Alazani Inguri Yerevan Gyumri Makhachkala Grozny Vladikavkaz Gori Lentekhi Telavi Rustavi Kutaisi Akhaltsikhe Magas Nalchik Vanadzor Sukhumi Ganja Sheki Mingechevir Lachin Goris Kapan Meghri Khankendi (Stepanakert) Tbilisi Nakhchivan Batumi Kars Poti Tskhenistskali Increased fashfloods due to weather extremes Potential inundation area due to sea levele rise Depletion of water resources Land degradation and desertification Glaciers melting Depopulation due to increase natural disasters Spread of malaria Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia-2010, Azerbaijan-2010 and Georgia-2009; MEP-Armenia; MEP-Azerbaijan; MEP-Georgia; WHO-Europe. AZ 52 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 53. Index of vulnerability to climate change* Index of vulnerability to climate change* Sensitivity to climate change Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity Tajikistan Albania Kyrgystan ARMENIA GEORGIA Tajikistan Uzbekistan AZERBAIJAN Turkmenistan ARMENIA Turkey Moldova Serbia Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Russia Bulgaria Bosnia Kazakhstan Romania Ukraine Belarus Croatia Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Kazakhstan Slovakia Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 10 Sensitivity to climate change Exposure to impacts Adaptive capacity Increasing sensitivity and exposure Adaptation capacity Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009. Makhachkala RUSSIAN FEDERAT I O N Sheki AZERBAIJAN IRAN CASPIAN SEA Kura Aras Samur Mingechevir reserv. Khankendi Stepanakert) Sumgayit Baku Neftchala 100 km 0 *Vulnerability to climate change is a combination of: i) exposure to hazards, measuring the strength of future climate change rela-tive to today’s climate; ii) sensitivity, indicating which economic sectors and ecosystem services are likely to be affected in view of climate 8 change, 6 e.g. 4 renewable 2 water 0 resources, -2 -agriculture 4 -6 and hydro-power production ; and iii) adaptive capacity to climate change, e.g. social, economic, and institutional settings to re-spond Increasing to weather sensitivity shocks and and exposure variability. Adaptation capacity Source: Climate Change in Central Asia, 2009. Albania Kyrgystan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Turkey Moldova Serbia Macedonia (F.Y.R.) Russia Bulgaria Bosnia Romania Ukraine Belarus Croatia Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Slovakia Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia 10 GEORGIA AZERBAIJAN Impact of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures 53
  • 54. Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus land and water Land contamination by pesticides and heavy metals, saliniza-tion of soils, overgrazing pastures, illegal and ill-maintained waste dumps close to water streams, glacier melting, deple-tion of freshwater sources (eastern part of South Caucasus) lack of safe and good quality of drinking water. Impact on livelihoods, agriculture, human health Water resources Agriculture Land degradation and desertification (eastern part of South Caucasus), salinization, droughts, coastal inundation and bogging (Black and Cas-pian Sea coastal zones), loss of soil fertility, decrease of crop production, degradation of wine- and citrus-growing zones. Impact on livelihood and food security Food security Biodiversity Social problems FLOODS AND NATURAL DISASTERS Increased number of catastrophic floods due to weather extremes (Black Sea coast, Alazani Valley, Kura lowland in Azerbaijan), devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, flash-floods, avalanches in mountainous zones, inundation of croplands, settlements at lowlands. Impact on livelihoods, infrastructure, threat to human life and health, local and transboundary problems, deterioration of social conditions 54 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 55. FORESTS, FAUNA AND FLORA Displacement of natural boundaries at sensitive areas of eastern South Caucasus (temperate forest ecosystems), loss of resilience of flora and fauna to invasive species, loss of natural ecosystem “corridors” for migration of rare and endemic species, increased cases of forest fires, degradation of landscape diversity, loss of biodiversity. Impact on livelihoods, biodiversity, freshwater resources, agriculture, human health sea and coastal Sea level rise, land inundation, coastal erosion, increased number of storm surges, pollution of sea water by oil products (Caspian Sea) and by untreated wastewater discharge (Black and Caspian Seas), coastal line change, lack of safe drinking water, decrease in number and diver-sity of marine specifies, deterioration of coastal infrastructure, spread of Malaria at inundated areas (eastern part of South Caucasus). Impact on coastal and sea biodiversity, livelihoods, agriculture, transport and other infrastructure, tourism PEOPLE AND WELLBEING Depopulation and eco-migration due to increased number of devastating natural disasters — landslides, mudflows, avalanches at highland zones of Adjara and Svaneti (Western Georgia), lack of safe drinking water and food, increase of poverty, spread of infectious diseases, increased stress due to heat waves, increased cases of cardiovascular diseases. Threat to human life, health and social conditions Climate Change-related Issues in the South Caucasus 55
  • 56. Caucasus Environment Outlook (2002), UNEP. Climate Change in Central Asia (2009). Zoï Environment Network. Dyurgerov, M.B. 2003. Mountain and subpolar glaciers show an increase in sensitivity to climate warming and intensification of the water cycle. ­J. Hydrol.,­282( 1–4), 164–176. Geopolitical Atlas of the Caucasus (2010), Autrement, Paris. Georgian National Tourism Agency. Georgian Wine booklet (2001), Tbilisi. GRID-Arendal (2008) Caucasus ecoregion. GRID-Tbilisi data. European Tribune: www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/11/20/113536/31 Institute of Geography, Javakhishvili State University, Tbilisi, Georgia. Iritz, L. and Jincharadze, Z. Needs Assessment of a Flood Early Warning System in Georgia. Disaster Risk Reduction Consultancy Report. June 2010, UNDP. Tbilisi, Georgia. Commersant. Online Magazine (6.01.2011): www.commersant.ge Lambrecht A., Mayer C., Hagg W., Popovnin V., Rezepkin A., Lomidze N. and Svanadze D. A comparison of glacier melt on debris-covered glaciers in the Northern and Southern Caucasus. The Cryosphere Discuss., 5, 431– 459, 2011: www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/5/431/2011/ Londex Resources: www.londex.org/projects.html Melconyan H., Hovsepyan A. Climate Change Scenarios over South ­Caucasus Region. UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Schneeberger, C., H. Blatter, A. Abe-Ouchi and M. Wild. 2003. Modeling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO₂ scenario. J. Hydrol., 282, 145–163. State of the Environment of Armenia (2002), GRID-Arendal. State of the Environment of Georgia (2007-2009). Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia. References Main background documents: First National Communication of the Republic of Armenia (1998). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia. Armenia’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia. Initial National Communication of Azerbaijan Republic on Climate Change (2000). National Climate Research Centre. Azerbaijan’s Second National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010). Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic. Georgia’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations frame-work convention on Climate Change (1999). National Climate Research Centre. Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009). Minis-try of Environment Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia. Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region (2011). ENVSEC, UNDP. Additional references: Alizadeh E.K. Sustainable development of mountain geosystems in the conditions of strengthening morphodynamic intensity (on an example of Azerbaijan), the bulletin of the Vladikavkaz centre of science, 2007, n°3. Assessment of vulnerability of water resource to climate change in trans-boundary river basins (Khrami-Debed and Aghstev) and recommendations on the corresponding adaptation measures. Yerevan, 2011. Association of the power engineers and specialists of Azerbaijan (APESA): www.azenerji.com. Azerbaijan international Magazine (11.04.2003): www.azer.com — Pages similaires Bedford, D.P. and Barry, R.G. 1994. Glacier trends in the Caucasus, 1960s to 1980s. Phys. Geogr., 15(5), 414–424. Caucasus ecoregion — environment and human development issues, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2008. 56 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 57. Statistical Year Book of Azerbaijan, 2010: www.azstat.org/statinfo/demoqraphic/en/index.shtml; www.azstat.org/statinfo/environment/en/index.shtml Statistical Year Book of Georgia, 2010: www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_ files/yearbook/Statistical%20Yearbook_2010.pdf Azerbaijan National Hydrometeorological Department: www.eco.gov.az/en/prog-buro.php Climate Wizard: www.climatewizard.org Earth Policy Institute: www.earth-policy.org Index Mundi: www.indexmundi.com Institute for Atmospheric Physics: www.dlr.de/pa/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-2559/3824_read-5749 Global Energy Network Institute (GENI): www.geni.org Global Energy Observatory: www.globalenergyobservatory.org International Energy Agency: www.iea.org PRECIS Regional Climate Modelling System: www.metoffice.gov.uk/ precis ReliefWeb: www.reliefweb.int/countries United Nations statistics: www.unstats.un.org/unsd/default.htm WHO-Europe, Malaria: www.euro.who.int World Bank statistics: www.data.worldbank.org Photos: Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums: www.utexas.edu/courses/larrymyth/2Prometheus2009.html Alazani River in the border of Georgia and Azerbaijan, Jincharadze Z., 2007. Debed river at Northern Armenia, Jincharadze Z., 2007 Upper Svaneti, GEORGIA, Naveriani V. State of the Environment of Georgia (2010), draft report. Ministry of Environ­mental Protection and Natural resources of Georgia. Stokes, C.R., Gurney, S.D., Shahgedanova, M., Popovin, V. 2006. Late- 20th-Century Changes in Glacier Extent in the Caucasus Mountains, ­Russia/ Georgia. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 52 No. 176. StratOil: www.stratoil.wikispaces.com/Azerbaijan UNDP/ENVSEC Study on Climate Change Impact for the South Caucasus, 2011. Vulnerability of water resources in the Republic of Armenia under climate change, Yerevan, 2009. World Trade Press, 2007. 1:50,000 Topographic maps. Online databases and information sources: Ministry of Nature Protection of the Republic of Armenia: www.mnp.am Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan Republic: www.eco.gov.az Ministry of Environment Protection of Georgia: www.moe.gov.ge Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Georgia: www.menr.gov.ge Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia: www.moa.gov.ge Climate Change Information Center of Armenia: www.nature-ic.am Armenian State Hydrometeorological and Monitoring Service: www.meteo.am National Environmental Agency of Georgia: www.meteo.gov.ge National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia: www.armstat.am The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan: www.azstat.org National Statistics Office of Georgia: www.geostat.ge Statistical Year Book of Armenia, 2010: www.armstat.am/en/?nid=45&year=2010 References 57
  • 58. Abbreviations and Glossary Association of the Power Engineers and Specialists of Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Baltic Sea Caucasus Environment Outlook Series of American strategic reconnaissance satel-lites produced in 1959–1972 Global climate model for climate research. The model was given its name as a combination of its origin, the “EC” being short for ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and the place of development of its parameterisation package, Hamburg. The Environment and Security Initiative Global Climate Change Processes Global Circulation Model Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Georgian Lari Global Energy Network Institute Greenhouse Gas Global Resource Information Database One of the global circulation model (GCMs) Hadley Centre Coupled Model (Coupled atmos-phere- ocean general circulation model developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom) Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 Hydrothermal Coefficient Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry MAGICC: User-friendly software package that takes emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulphur dioxide as input and gives glob-al- mean temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as output. SCENGEN: Regionalization algorithm that uses a scaling method to produce climate and climate change information on a 5° latitude by 5° longitude grid. APESA AZ BS CEO CORONA ECHAM ENVSEC GCCP GCM GDP GEF GEL GENI GHG GRID HAD300 HADCM HADCM3 HTC LULUCF MAGICC/ SCENGEN MENR MEP Mil PP PRECIS SoE SPOT TWh UN UNDP UNESCO UNFCCC USD WEAP WHO Chemical Combinations CO₂ CH₄ N₂O Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Ministry of Environment Protection Million Power Plant In French précis — “PRAY-sea” — is based on the Hadley Centre’s regional climate State of the Environment In French: Système Probatoire d’Observation de la Terre. Probationary System of Earth Observation — high-resolution, optical imaging Earth observa-tion satellite system operating from space Terawatt hour United Nations United Nations Development Programme The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cul-tural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United States Dollar Water Evaluation and Planning Model World Health Organization Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide 58 Climate Change in the South Caucasus
  • 59. The Georgian artist, Nina Joerchjan, has produced a set of collages to illustrate the Zoï Environment Network publica-tion, Climate Change in the South Caucasus. At first sight: beautiful renderings of mountain landscapes, vineyards, fruits, animals and archaic architecture. In the long tradi-tion of the region’s folk art, many scenes — such as Ararat mountain — are immediately recognizable as Caucasian icons. The images evoke Pirosmani, although people — the main subject of the famous Georgian painter at the turn of the twentieth century — are almost completely absent. But why use such a traditional and happy style to illustrate such a grim and existential subject as climate change? The ­answer comes in a second, closer look that the artwork ­deserves. New elements appear: an oil platform, a ski lift and a somewhat strange, turtle-like structure giving the ­Tbilisi skyline a new look. Even without these modern ele-ments, a sense of fragility becomes obvious. An idyll in the process of being destroyed, nature and livelihoods being threatened, climate change being real. The artist has found a silent, non-alarmist tone to show that things are still there, however fragile. It is up to us to preserve this unique herit-age. There may still be time. Abbreviation/Nina Joerchjan 59
  • 60. International Environment House Chemin de Balexert 9 CH-1219 Châtelaine Geneva, Switzerland Zoï Environment Network Tel. +41 22 917 83 42 www.zoinet.org enzoi@zoinet.org