Unit 4 discusses return and risk, while Unit 5 covers modern portfolio theory. Portfolio theory holds that investing in multiple assets lowers overall risk if profits from one asset can offset losses in others. An optimal portfolio minimizes risk for a given return or maximizes return for a given risk. It is selected from the efficient frontier of portfolios with the highest return per level of risk. The security market line models the relationship between risk and expected return for individual assets based on the capital asset pricing model.
Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast Slides
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Portfolio Optimization and Risk Analysis
1.
2. Unit- Four and Five
Return and risk- unit Four
Modern portfolio- unit Five
3. Portfolio
Portfolio means making investment in
more than one alternative at the same
time.
It is also called investment
diversification or combination of
investment.
Total investable fund is invested in a
single asset risk become higher.
If investable fund is invested in more
than one asset, risk became lower
because profit from one area can
compensate the loss in another assets.
Portfolio theory
The process of selecting optimal
portfolio is called portfolio theory. A
optimal portfolio is that ratio of
investment, which fulfills the following
objectives.
minimizing risk if return is equal
maximizing return if risk is equal
So portfolio theory is the process of
the selecting low riskier investment.
This model developed by Harry
Markowitz in 1952 AD
This theory is based on the following
assumption.
By nature investor are risk averter
Expected return of any portfolio is
the mean value of probability
distribution of future return.
Deviation of return create the risk.
Higher risk taking investor expects
higher return and lower risk taking
investor expect lower return.
4. Selection of optimal portfolio
1. Create the Risk and Return
indifference curve
Risk
Return
Features of the indifference curve
๏ Every point which lies on same risk
return indifference curve gives the
same satisfaction level.
๏ Every upper risk return indifference
curve gives more satisfaction
๏ In lower level risk return
indifference curve, return does not
increase in accordance to risk
increment but in upper level risk
return indifference curve return
increase as per the risk.
p
q
O
n
r
IC1
X
Y IC3
IC2
5. Selection of optimal portfolio
1. Create the Risk and Return
indifference curve
Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3
X
Risk
Return
2. Choice the efficient portfolio
Port folio Return Risk
A 10% 7%
B 10% 6%
Portfolio B is efficient base on risk
Port folio Return Risk
A 11% 7%
B 10% 7%
Portfolio 'A' is efficient base on return
3. Opportunity set
Opportunity set is the combination of
efficient and inefficient portfolio. It is
also called attainable set.
ABCD = Efficient portfolio/Frontier
EFG= Inefficient portfolio/set
ABCDEFG= Attainable set
Efficient frontier= The line joining a
portfolio having the hiest return in the
same level of risk is known as efficient
frontier.
Return
Risk
D
C
B
A
E
F
G
Attainable
set
6. 4. Optimal portfolio/Choice
Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3
Risk
Return
a
b
c
Optimal portfolio is the combination of investment
in assets which helps an investor to minimize risk if
return is same or to maximize return if risk is same
Optimal portfolio is selected involving the risk
return indifference curve from the above efficient
frontier.
The meeting point of risk-return indifference curve
of efficient frontier is assumed as optimal
portfolio.
Above the figure investor select
the portfolio lies in the efficient
frontier of the opportunity set,
which is tangent to the indifferent
curve of the investor, and the
portfolio becomes optimal for him.
The indifferent curve Ic2 tangent
with efficient frontier at point 'b',
here investor optimal portfolio at
point 'b'.
These point makes higher level of
satisfaction to the investor.
Investor would not be selected
points 'a' and 'c' because these
points has lower level of investor's
satisfaction/higher level of risk
7. Portfolio return
Portfolio return refers to the return on the total
investment when an investor invests in more than
one asset.
A portfolio return equals to the weighted average
of the returns of the individual assets held in the
portfolio.
The sum of weight of all assets in a portfolio always
equals to one as an investors spreads his total
investable fund among the assets.
Portfolio risk
Portfolio risk means that risk which is created while
investing in more than one assets all together.
In the other words portfolio risk refers to the
variability of expected returns of the portfolio.
Portfolio risk can be measured in terms of variance
and standard deviation.
8. SML
Krf
Y
Security Market line (SML)
SML is the graphical representation of
Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM).
The equation of CAPM is the equation of
SML. CAPM is the pricing model, it
describes relationship between
expected return and systematic risk of
an individual asset.
The SML appears as shown in following
figure.
Total risk = systematic + unsystematic risk
SML only represent the part of systematic
risk out of total risk.
Slope of SML=
๐พ๐โ๐พ๐๐
๐ซ๐
Slope of SML=
๐พ๐โ๐พ๐๐
๐๐
Equation of SML(Rj) = Krf +(Km- Krf) แตฆj
Decision
If Rj > expected return, stock is
overvalued and overvalued stock
should sell.
If Rj < expected return, stock is
undervalued and under valued stock
should purchase.
If Rj = expected return, stock is indifferent
in the market and investors follow the
wait and see strategic. i.e no action.
Km
แตฆj
Risk
premium
Km- Krf
X
Systematic risk
Expected
return
9. Types of risk/sources of risk
a. Business risk => Business risk refers to the uncertain
about the rate of return caused by nature of business
b. Financial risk=> The risk related to firm's capital
structure i.e. debt mgmt, preferred stock and
common share.
c. Liquidity risk=> Liquidity risk associated with the
uncertainly created by the inability to the sell the
investment quickly for cash.
d. Interest rate risk=> Change in the interest rate in
market.
e. Management risk=> The risk created due to different
management policies decision and programs affect
the risk faced by investors.
f. Purchasing power risk=> The risk caused by inflaction.
10. Risk free assets
Some of investment, return of which is exactly
known is called risk free assets.
In other words, the assets with zero standard
deviation in result between actual and expected
return is called risk free assets.
In case of Nepal treasury bill is an example of risk
free assets.
Treasury bill is defined as risk free assets because its
maturity period and holding period are equal.
If risky and risk free assets is given
๐ ๐= ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐๐+๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐
๐น๐= ๐น๐ ๐ฟ ๐พ๐ + ๐น๐๐ (๐โ๐พ๐)
แ๐= ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐
11.
12.
13.
14. We have given,
Weighted of investment A (๐๐ด) =
30,000
1,00,000
= 0.3
Weighted of investment AB(๐๐ต) =
70,000
1,00,000
= 0.7
Expected return for investment A(๐ ๐ด) = 10%
Expected return for investment B(๐ ๐ต) = 15%
Calculate the expected return on portfolio(๐ ๐)
By the formula
(๐ ๐) = ๐ก=1
๐
๐ ๐๐ ๐
๐
= ๐ ๐ด X ๐๐ด+ ๐ ๐ต ๐ ๐๐ต
= 10 X 0.3 + 15 X 0.7
= 13.5%
15. Year End
price
P1
Beg
price
Po
Percentage return
๐น๐ =
๐ท๐โ๐ท๐
๐ท๐
๐น๐ โ ๐น๐ (๐น๐ โ ๐น๐)๐
2012 55,000 50,000 55,000โ50,000
50,000
= 10%
2013 58,000 55,000 58,000โ55,000
55,000
= 5.45%
2014 65,000 58,000 65,000โ58,000
58,000
= 12.07%
1015 70,000 65,000 70,000โ65,000
65,000
= 7.69%
Calculate the average return over the four year period and standard deviation.
a. Average return(๐น๐) =
๐ ๐
๐
=
10+5.45+12.07+7.69
4
=
35.22
4
= 8.80
b. Standard deviation(๐๐)=
(๐น๐ โ๐น๐)๐
๐โ1
=
๐โ1
33. Covariance between market return
and investment A.( ๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐)
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐=
ฦ(๐ ๐โ๐ ๐) (๐ ๐ดโ๐ ๐ด)
๐โ1
=
712
10โ1
= 79.1
Correlation coefficient (๐๐ด๐)
๐๐ด๐=
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐
๐๐ด๐๐
=
79.1
7.91 ๐ 10
= 1
Beta coefficient (แ ๐ด
)
แ ๐ด=
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐
๐๐
2 =
79.1
100.06
= 0.79
Covariance between market return and
investment B.( ๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ต๐)
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐=
ฦ(๐ ๐โ๐ ๐) (๐ ๐ตโ๐ ๐ต)
๐โ1
=
1241.50
10โ1
= 137.9
Correlation coefficient (๐๐ต๐)
๐๐ด๐=
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ต๐
๐๐ต๐๐
=
137.9
13.79 ๐ 10
= 1
Beta coefficient (แ ๐ต
)
แ ๐ต=
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ต๐
๐๐
2 =
137.9
100.06
= 1.38
Beta coefficient of investment A is less than 1 so it is less risky than
the market. Conversely, investment B has beta coefficient is greater
than 1 so it is more risky than market.
34.
35. 5.12 calculate the required rate of return (๐ ๐) by
using following CAPM.
๐ ๐ = ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐
5.13 calculate the required rate of return (๐ ๐) by
using following CAPM.
Return of T-bill= ๐พ๐๐ = 3%
Beta=แตฆ๐= 1.25
Market return =๐พ๐ = 13%
Expected rate of return = 14%
๐ ๐ = ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐
Calculate the required rate of return than, compare
with required rate of return for decision making.
36.
37. ๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐ (๐พ๐๐)= 6%
Market return (๐พ๐ )= 14%
Beta coefficient of A company(แตฆ๐ด) = 1.55
Beta coefficient of B company(แตฆ๐ต) = 0.75
Price per share of A company = Rs.38
Price per share of B company = Rs.23
Number of share purchased for each company = 100 shares
calculate the required rate of return (๐ ๐) by using following CAPM.
๐ ๐ = ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐
a. For company A (๐ ๐ด )= ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐ด
= 6 +(14-6)1.55
= 18.4%
b. For company B (๐ ๐ต )= ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐ต
= 6 +(14-6)0.75
= 12%
c. For Portfolio (๐ ๐ )= ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐
= 6 +(14-6)1.254
= 16.03%
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐
๐ซ๐= ๐ซ๐ด X ๐๐ด + ๐ซ๐ต X ๐๐ต
= 1.55 X
38
61
+ 0.75X
23
61
= 1.254
OR
๐ ๐= ๐ ๐ด X ๐๐ด + ๐ ๐ต X ๐๐ต
= 18.4 X
38
61
+ 12 X
23
61
= 16.03%
38.
39. ๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ก๐ข๐ (๐พ๐๐)= 6%
Market return (๐พ๐ )= 11%
Standard deviation on market (๐๐) = 11%
Correlation coefficient between asset A
and market (๐๐ด๐) = 0.80
Standard deviation on asset A (๐๐ด) = 9%
Calculate the Beta coefficient of asset A
(แตฆ๐ด) =
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐
๐๐
2
=
๐๐ด๐๐๐ด๐๐
๐๐
2
=
0.80 ๐ 9 ๐ 11
112 = 0.65
Asset A is defensive assets because it has
less beta coefficient than market.
calculate the required/Required rate of
return (๐ ๐)
๐ ๐ด = ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐ด
= 6 +(11-6)0.65
= 9.25%
๐ท๐๐๐ค ๐กโ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ก ๐ด ๐๐ ๐๐ก.
Calculate the systematic and unsystematic
risk.
Systematic risk =
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐ด๐
๐๐
=
๐๐ด๐๐๐ด๐๐
๐๐
=
0.80 ๐ 9 ๐ 11
11
= 7.2%
Unsystematic risk= ๐๐ด(1-๐๐ด๐)
= 9(1-0.8) = 1.8%
Out of total risk (๐๐ด), 80 percent (i.e
7.2
9
)
covered by systematic risk and remaining
20 percent (i.e
1.8
9
) covered by
unsystematic risk.
SML
Y
แตฆj =1 X
๐พ๐=11%
๐พ๐๐=6%
0.65
9.25%
A
44. ๐ซ1 = 1.2
๐ซ2 = 0.9
a. Beta portfolio (๐ซ๐) = ?
If, ๐1 & ๐2 is 50/50 percent.
b. If, Beta portfolio (๐ซ๐) = 1.1
๐1 & ๐2 = ?
๐ซ๐= ๐ซ1 X ๐1 + ๐ซ2 X ๐2
๐ซ๐= ๐ซ1 X ๐1 + ๐ซ2 (1 โ ๐1)
๐1= โฆโฆ
Then,
๐2 = 1-๐1
45.
46. Calculate the portfolio beta for each stock A & B.
Assets Beta(๐ซ ๐
) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐ซ๐ดX W ๐ด ๐ซ๐ตX W ๐ต
1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.13 0.39
2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.21 0.07
3 1.25 0.1 0.2 0.125 0.25
4 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.11 0.22
5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.36 0.18
0.935 1.11
b. Portfolio beta for stock A is less than one so it is less risky than market.
Conversely, portfolio beta for stock B is greater than one so it is more risky than
market.
c. If Risk free rate of return and market return are 2 percent and 12 percent
respectively. Calculate the required rate of return for both stocks using CAPM.
For stock A(๐ ๐ด )= ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐ด
For stock B(๐ ๐ต )= ๐พ๐๐ + (๐พ๐ โ ๐พ๐๐)แตฆ๐ต
47. d. At, first Calculate the portfolio expected return for each stock A & B then give
the decision compare with required rate of return.
Assets (R๐) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐ ๐X W ๐ด ๐ ๐X W ๐ต
1 16.5 0.1 0.3 1.65 4.95
2 12 0.3 0.1 3.6 1.2
3 15 0.1 0.2 1.5 3
4 13 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.6
5 7 0.4 0.2 2.8 1.4
10.85% 13.15%
Decision
Stocks Expected return Required return Select/Reject
A 10.85 11.35 Reject
B 13.15 13.10 Select
50. A. Calculate the Expected return (๐ ๐) for
each stock.
For mutual fund (๐ ๐) = ๐ ๐. ๐๐ = 10%
For Common stock (๐ ๐ถ๐ ) = ๐ ๐ถ๐ . ๐๐ = 11%
For Certif. od deposit (๐ ๐ถ๐) = ๐ ๐ถ๐. ๐๐ = 7%
B. Calculation of standard deviation (แ๐) for each
stock.
Mutual fund (แ๐) = (๐ ๐ โ ๐ ๐)2. ๐๐
= 2.6664 = 1.6329%
Common stock(แ๐ถ๐ )= (๐ ๐ถ๐ โ ๐ ๐ถ๐ )2. ๐๐
= 13.9986 = 3.7415%
Certificate of de (แ๐ถ๐) = (๐ ๐ถ๐ โ ๐ ๐ถ๐)2. ๐๐
= 0 = 0%
Certificate of deposit is least/zero risky in terms
of standard deviation and common stock is most
risky in terms of beta because its beta is higher
than mutual fund and certificate of deposit.
C. Calculate the Portfolio risk and return.
Portfolio X has mutual fund (๐
๐=75%)
and common stock (๐๐ถ๐ =25%)
Portfolio Y has common stock (๐๐ถ๐ =50%)
and certificate of deposit (๐๐ถ๐=50%)
Cov between mutual fund and common stock
๐ถ๐๐ฃ๐&๐ถ๐ = ฦ(๐ ๐-๐ ๐)(๐ ๐ถ๐ -๐ ๐ถ๐ ) ๐๐ = 5.9994
Cov between common stock and certificate of
deposit will be Zero because Std deviation of
certificate of deposit is zero.
For X Portfolio
Portfolio return (๐ ๐) = ๐ ๐ X ๐
๐ + ๐ ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐
= 10 X 0.75 + 11 X 0.25 =10. 25%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐๐)
(๐๐) = ๐๐
2
. ๐
๐
2
+๐๐ถ๐
2
. ๐๐ถ๐
2
. +2๐ถ๐๐๐&๐ถ๐ . ๐
๐. ๐๐ถ๐
=
2.6664๐0.752 + 13.9986๐0.252 + 2 ๐ 5.994๐0.75๐0.25
=
= 2.1505%
C.V =
๐๐
๐ ๐ฅ
=
๐.๐๐๐๐
10.25
= 0.2098
51. For Y Portfolio
Portfolio return (๐ ๐) = ๐ ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐ + ๐ ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐
= 11 X 0.5 + 7 X 0.5 =9%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐๐)
(๐๐) =
๐๐ถ๐
2
. ๐๐ถ๐
2
+๐๐ถ๐
2
. ๐๐ถ๐
2
. +2๐ถ๐๐๐ถ๐ &๐ถ๐. ๐๐ถ๐ . ๐๐ถ๐
=
13.9986๐0.52 + 0๐0.52 + 2 ๐ 0 ๐0.5 ๐0.5
=
= 1.871%
C.V =
๐๐
๐ ๐ฆ
=
๐.๐๐๐
9
= 0.2079
Calculation of portfolio beta (๐ซ๐)
For portfolio X(๐ซ๐ฅ) = ๐ซ๐ X ๐
๐ + ๐ซ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐
= 1 x 0.75 +1.2 x 0.25
= 1.05
For portfolio Y(๐ซ๐ฆ) = ๐ซ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐ + ๐ซ๐ถ๐ X ๐๐ถ๐
= 1.2 x 0.5 +0 x 0.5
= 0.60
In terms of beta portfolio Y is less risky
D. The standard deviation measure the total risk.
Total risk can be divided in two parts, systematic
risk and unsystematic risk. Beta is calculate to
measure systematic risk. In a well diversified
portfolio we are only bear the systematic risk. So
we calculate the beta.
52. I) Calculate the Expected return (๐ ๐) for each stock.
For stock A (๐ ๐ด) = ๐ ๐ด. ๐๐ = 20%
For stock B (๐ ๐ต) = ๐ ๐ต. ๐๐ = 30%
Portfolio return (๐ ๐) = ๐ ๐ด X ๐๐ด + ๐ ๐ต X ๐๐ต
= 20 X 0.5 + 30 X 0.5
= 25%
II) Calculation of standard deviation (แ๐) for each stock.
For stock A (แ๐ด) = (๐ ๐ด โ ๐ ๐ด)2. ๐๐ = 60 = 7.75%
For stock B (แ๐ต) = (๐ ๐ต โ ๐ ๐ต)2. ๐๐ = 240 = 15.49%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐๐)
(๐๐) = ๐๐ด
2
. ๐๐ด
2
+๐๐ต
2
. ๐๐ต
2
. +2๐ถ๐๐๐ด๐ต. ๐๐ด. ๐๐ต
= 7.752. 0.52 + 15.492. 0.52 + 2 ๐ โ120 0.5 ๐0.5
= 15.00065
= 3.87%
53.
54. A. Ranking of stock from most risky to least risky based on beta
Stock Beta Rank
A 0.8 2
B 1.4 1
C -0.3 3
B. If market return increases by 12 percent, the changes in securities return
are as follow.
Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return
(๐๐ ๐) (๐๐ ๐) = ๐ซ๐X ๐๐ ๐
A 0.8 12% 9.6%
B 1.4 12 16.8
C -0.3 12 -3.6
C. If market return decreases by 5 percent, the changes in securities return
are as follow.
Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return
(๐๐ ๐) (๐๐ ๐) = ๐ซ๐X ๐๐ ๐
A 0.8 -5% -4%
B 1.4 -5% -7
C -0.3 -5% 1.5
55. d. If we felt the stock market was about to experience a significant decline,
we would be most likely to add to stock 'C' because it has negative beta,
negative beta means when market decline it increases.
e. If we anticipated a major stock market increases, we would be most likely
to add stock 'B' to our portfolio because its beta is the highest and to
produces/increases the market return.