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Unit- Four and Five
Return and risk- unit Four
Modern portfolio- unit Five
Portfolio
Portfolio means making investment in
more than one alternative at the same
time.
It is also called investment
diversification or combination of
investment.
Total investable fund is invested in a
single asset risk become higher.
If investable fund is invested in more
than one asset, risk became lower
because profit from one area can
compensate the loss in another assets.
Portfolio theory
The process of selecting optimal
portfolio is called portfolio theory. A
optimal portfolio is that ratio of
investment, which fulfills the following
objectives.
minimizing risk if return is equal
maximizing return if risk is equal
So portfolio theory is the process of
the selecting low riskier investment.
This model developed by Harry
Markowitz in 1952 AD
This theory is based on the following
assumption.
By nature investor are risk averter
Expected return of any portfolio is
the mean value of probability
distribution of future return.
Deviation of return create the risk.
Higher risk taking investor expects
higher return and lower risk taking
investor expect lower return.
Selection of optimal portfolio
1. Create the Risk and Return
indifference curve
Risk
Return
Features of the indifference curve
๏ƒž Every point which lies on same risk
return indifference curve gives the
same satisfaction level.
๏ƒž Every upper risk return indifference
curve gives more satisfaction
๏ƒž In lower level risk return
indifference curve, return does not
increase in accordance to risk
increment but in upper level risk
return indifference curve return
increase as per the risk.
p
q
O
n
r
IC1
X
Y IC3
IC2
Selection of optimal portfolio
1. Create the Risk and Return
indifference curve
Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3
X
Risk
Return
2. Choice the efficient portfolio
Port folio Return Risk
A 10% 7%
B 10% 6%
Portfolio B is efficient base on risk
Port folio Return Risk
A 11% 7%
B 10% 7%
Portfolio 'A' is efficient base on return
3. Opportunity set
Opportunity set is the combination of
efficient and inefficient portfolio. It is
also called attainable set.
ABCD = Efficient portfolio/Frontier
EFG= Inefficient portfolio/set
ABCDEFG= Attainable set
Efficient frontier= The line joining a
portfolio having the hiest return in the
same level of risk is known as efficient
frontier.
Return
Risk
D
C
B
A
E
F
G
Attainable
set
4. Optimal portfolio/Choice
Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3
Risk
Return
a
b
c
Optimal portfolio is the combination of investment
in assets which helps an investor to minimize risk if
return is same or to maximize return if risk is same
Optimal portfolio is selected involving the risk
return indifference curve from the above efficient
frontier.
The meeting point of risk-return indifference curve
of efficient frontier is assumed as optimal
portfolio.
Above the figure investor select
the portfolio lies in the efficient
frontier of the opportunity set,
which is tangent to the indifferent
curve of the investor, and the
portfolio becomes optimal for him.
The indifferent curve Ic2 tangent
with efficient frontier at point 'b',
here investor optimal portfolio at
point 'b'.
These point makes higher level of
satisfaction to the investor.
Investor would not be selected
points 'a' and 'c' because these
points has lower level of investor's
satisfaction/higher level of risk
Portfolio return
Portfolio return refers to the return on the total
investment when an investor invests in more than
one asset.
A portfolio return equals to the weighted average
of the returns of the individual assets held in the
portfolio.
The sum of weight of all assets in a portfolio always
equals to one as an investors spreads his total
investable fund among the assets.
Portfolio risk
Portfolio risk means that risk which is created while
investing in more than one assets all together.
In the other words portfolio risk refers to the
variability of expected returns of the portfolio.
Portfolio risk can be measured in terms of variance
and standard deviation.
SML
Krf
Y
Security Market line (SML)
SML is the graphical representation of
Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM).
The equation of CAPM is the equation of
SML. CAPM is the pricing model, it
describes relationship between
expected return and systematic risk of
an individual asset.
The SML appears as shown in following
figure.
Total risk = systematic + unsystematic risk
SML only represent the part of systematic
risk out of total risk.
Slope of SML=
๐พ๐‘šโˆ’๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“
๐žซ๐‘š
Slope of SML=
๐พ๐‘šโˆ’๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
Equation of SML(Rj) = Krf +(Km- Krf) แตฆj
Decision
If Rj > expected return, stock is
overvalued and overvalued stock
should sell.
If Rj < expected return, stock is
undervalued and under valued stock
should purchase.
If Rj = expected return, stock is indifferent
in the market and investors follow the
wait and see strategic. i.e no action.
Km
แตฆj
Risk
premium
Km- Krf
X
Systematic risk
Expected
return
Types of risk/sources of risk
a. Business risk => Business risk refers to the uncertain
about the rate of return caused by nature of business
b. Financial risk=> The risk related to firm's capital
structure i.e. debt mgmt, preferred stock and
common share.
c. Liquidity risk=> Liquidity risk associated with the
uncertainly created by the inability to the sell the
investment quickly for cash.
d. Interest rate risk=> Change in the interest rate in
market.
e. Management risk=> The risk created due to different
management policies decision and programs affect
the risk faced by investors.
f. Purchasing power risk=> The risk caused by inflaction.
Risk free assets
Some of investment, return of which is exactly
known is called risk free assets.
In other words, the assets with zero standard
deviation in result between actual and expected
return is called risk free assets.
In case of Nepal treasury bill is an example of risk
free assets.
Treasury bill is defined as risk free assets because its
maturity period and holding period are equal.
If risky and risk free assets is given
๐‘…๐‘= ๐‘…๐‘š ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘š+๐‘…๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘Ÿ๐‘“
๐‘น๐’‘= ๐‘น๐’Ž ๐‘ฟ ๐‘พ๐’Ž + ๐‘น๐’“๐’‡ (๐Ÿโˆ’๐‘พ๐’Ž)
แ†š๐‘= ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘š
We have given,
Weighted of investment A (๐‘Š๐ด) =
30,000
1,00,000
= 0.3
Weighted of investment AB(๐‘Š๐ต) =
70,000
1,00,000
= 0.7
Expected return for investment A(๐‘…๐ด) = 10%
Expected return for investment B(๐‘…๐ต) = 15%
Calculate the expected return on portfolio(๐‘…๐‘ƒ)
By the formula
(๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘ก=1
๐‘›
๐‘…๐‘—๐‘‹ ๐‘Š
๐‘—
= ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด+ ๐‘…๐ต ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐ต
= 10 X 0.3 + 15 X 0.7
= 13.5%
Year End
price
P1
Beg
price
Po
Percentage return
๐‘น๐’‹ =
๐‘ท๐Ÿโˆ’๐‘ท๐ŸŽ
๐‘ท๐ŸŽ
๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’ ๐‘น๐’‹ (๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’ ๐‘น๐’‹)๐Ÿ
2012 55,000 50,000 55,000โˆ’50,000
50,000
= 10%
2013 58,000 55,000 58,000โˆ’55,000
55,000
= 5.45%
2014 65,000 58,000 65,000โˆ’58,000
58,000
= 12.07%
1015 70,000 65,000 70,000โˆ’65,000
65,000
= 7.69%
Calculate the average return over the four year period and standard deviation.
a. Average return(๐‘น๐’‹) =
๐‘…๐‘—
๐‘
=
10+5.45+12.07+7.69
4
=
35.22
4
= 8.80
b. Standard deviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘—)=
(๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’๐‘น๐’‹)๐Ÿ
๐‘โˆ’1
=
๐‘โˆ’1
a.
๐‘…๐ด ๐‘…๐ต ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต (๐‘…๐ดโˆ’๐‘…๐ด )2๐‘‹๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ตโˆ’๐‘…๐ต)2X๐‘ƒ๐‘—
10 50 0.3 3 15 -10 20 30 120
20 30 0.4 8 12 0 0 0 0
30 10 0.3 9 3 10 -20 30 120
๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2
. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2
. ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
= 20% = 30% = 60 = 240
(๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด) ( ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต ) ๐‘‹๐‘ƒ๐ฝ
-60
0
-60
(๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด) ( ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต ) ๐‘‹๐‘ƒ
๐ฝ
-120
I) Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for each stock.
For stock A (๐‘…๐ด) = ๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 20%
For stock B (๐‘…๐ต) = ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 30%
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต
= 20 X 0.5 + 30 X 0.5
= 25%
II) Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each stock.
For stock A (แ†š๐ด) = (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 60 = 7.75%
For stock B (แ†š๐ต) = (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 240 = 15.49%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด
2
. ๐‘Š๐ด
2
+๐Ÿƒ๐ต
2
. ๐‘Š๐ต
2
. +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ด๐ต. ๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต
= 7.752. 0.52 + 15.492. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ โˆ’120 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5
= 15.00065
= 3.87%
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด
2
. ๐‘Š๐ด
2
+๐Ÿƒ๐ต
2
. ๐‘Š๐ต
2
. +2๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐ต. ๐Ÿƒ๐ด. ๐Ÿƒ๐ต๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต
Calculate the portfolio return over the four year period.
Portfolio between Portfolio between
XY XZ
Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ ๐‘…๐‘ฆ ๐‘…๐‘ง ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ = 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฅ + 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฆ ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง = 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฅ + 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ง
2012 16 17 14 0.5x16+0.5x17 = 16.5 0.5x16+0.5x14 = 15
2013 17 16 15 0.5x17+0.5x16 = 16.5 0.5x17+0.5x15 = 16
2014 18 15 16 0.5x18+0.5x15 = 16.5 0.5x18+0.5x16 = 17
2015 19 14 17 0.5x19+0.5x14 = 16.5 0.5x19+0.5x17 = 18
๐‘…๐‘ฅ =70% ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ = 66% ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง = 66%
Portfolio average return, if 100 percent is invested in assets 'X'
๐‘…๐‘ฅ =
๐‘…๐‘ฅ
๐‘
=
70
4
= 17.5%
Portfolio average return, if 50 percent is invested in assets 'X' and rest in 'Y'
๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ =
๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ
๐‘
=
66
4
= 16.5%
Portfolio average return, if 50 percent is invested in assets 'X' and rest in 'Z'
๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง =
๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง
๐‘
=
66
4
= 16.5%
B. Calculate the standard deviation.
If 100 percent invested in investment 'X'
Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ (๐‘…๐‘ฅ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2
2012 16 -1.5 2.25
2013 17 -0.5 0.25
2014 18 0.5 0.25
2015 19 1.5 2.25
(๐‘…๐‘ฅโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2 = 5
If 50 percent invested in investment 'X' and rest in investment 'Y'
Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2
2012 16.5 0 0
2013 16.5 0 0
2014 16.5 0 0
2015 16.5 0 0
(๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2 = 0
If 50 percent invested in investment 'X' and rest in investment 'Z'
Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2
2012 15 -1.5 2.25
2013 16 -0.5 0.25
2014 17 0.5 0.25
2015 18 1.5 2.25
(๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘งโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2 = 5
Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ) =
(๐‘…๐‘ฅโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2
๐‘โˆ’1
=
5
4โˆ’1
= 1.29%
Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ) =
(๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2
๐‘โˆ’1
=
0
4โˆ’1
= 0%
Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ๐‘ง) =
(๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘งโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2
๐‘โˆ’1
=
5
4โˆ’1
= 1.29%
c. I would prefer portfolio XY comprising of 50 percent investment in assets X
and 50 percent in Y because this portfolo reduces risk to zero .
Quarterly holding period for two stocks are given below.
Quarter ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 ๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2
(๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2)2
1 7.2% 0.6% 3.55 -0.613 12.6025 0.3758
2 12.9 6 9.25 4.787 85.5625 22.958
3 7.4 0.6 3.75 -0.613 14.0625 0.3758
4 -2.1 9.7 -5.75 8.487 33.0625 72.029
5 4 -18 0.35 -19.213 0.1225 369.139
6 6.9 6.1 3.25 4.887 10.5625 23.883
7 -8.4 -1.8 -12.05 -3.013 145.2025 9.078
8 1.3 6.5 -2.35 5.287 5.5225 27.952
๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2 (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2 )2
Total 29.2 9.7 306.70 525.7476
a. I) Calculate the expected return for each stockk(๐‘…๐‘— )
Average return(๐‘…1) =
๐‘…1
๐‘
=
29.2
8
=3.65%
Average return(๐‘…2) =
๐‘…2
๐‘
=
9.7
8
=1.21%
a. II) Calculate the standard deviation (๐Ÿƒ๐’‹)
Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ1) =
(๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2
๐‘โˆ’1
=
306.70
8โˆ’1
= 6.62%
Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ2) =
(๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2 )2
๐‘โˆ’1
=
525.7476
8โˆ’1
=8.67%
b. Again, calculate the correlation coefficient between stock 1 & 2 (๐‘Ÿ12)
Quarter ๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2)
1 3.55 -0.613 -2.17615
2 9.25 4.787 44.27975
3 3.75 -0.613 -2.29875
4 -5.75 8.487 -48.80025
5 0.35 -19.213 -6.72455
6 3.25 4.887 15.88275
7 -12.05 -3.013 36.30665
8 -2.35 5.287 -12.42445
(๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2)
= 24.045
Covariance between stock 1 & 2 (๐‘ช๐’๐’—๐Ÿ๐Ÿ)
(๐‘ช๐’๐’—๐Ÿ๐Ÿ)=
(๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2)
๐‘โˆ’1
=
24.045
8โˆ’1
=3.44
Correlation coefficient between stock 1 & 2 (๐’“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ)
(๐’“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ) =
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ12
๐Ÿƒ1 ๐‘‹ ๐Ÿƒ2
=
3.44
6.62 ๐‘‹ 8.67
= 0.0599
C. We have to given,
Weighted of first stock (๐‘Š1) = 0.5
Weighted of second stock (๐‘Š2) = 0.5
Average return(๐‘…1) =3.65%
Average return(๐‘…2) =1.21%
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐‘…2 X ๐‘Š2
= 3.65 X 0.5 + 1.21 X 0.5
= 2.43%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ1
2
. ๐‘Š1
2
+๐Ÿƒ2
2
. ๐‘Š2
2
. +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰12. ๐‘Š1. ๐‘Š2
= 6.622. 0.52 + 8.672. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ 3.44 ๐‘‹ 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5
= 5.61%
Correlation coefficient two stocks is lower positive so the portfolio offers the benefit
risk reduction. The portfolio risk is lower than individual risk of stock 1 and stock 2.
We have given, Risky and risk free assets
Return on risk free assets (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“) =2%
Return on risky assets (๐‘…๐‘Ÿ) = 2.43 (find in part 'C)
Risk on risky assets (๐Ÿƒ๐‘Ÿ) = 5.61(find in part 'C)
Weighted on risk free assets (๐‘ค๐‘Ÿ๐‘“) = 10% i.e 0.1
Weighted on risky assets (๐‘ค๐‘Ÿ) = 90% i.e 0.9
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐‘Ÿ X ๐‘Š
๐‘Ÿ + ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ X ๐‘Š๐‘Ÿ๐‘“
= 2.43 X 0.9 + 2 X 0.1
= 2.39%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐‘Ÿ X ๐‘Š
๐‘Ÿ
= 5.61 X 0.9 = 5.05%
= ๐Ÿƒ1
2
. ๐‘Š1
2
+๐Ÿƒ2
2
. ๐‘Š2
2
. +2๐‘Ÿ12. ๐Ÿƒ1. ๐Ÿƒ2. ๐‘Š1. ๐‘Š2.
= 0 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š1
2
+๐Ÿƒ2
2
. ๐‘Š2
2
. +2 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Ÿ12๐‘‹ 0. ๐‘‹ ๐Ÿƒ2๐‘‹ ๐‘Š1๐‘‹ ๐‘Š2.
= ๐Ÿƒ2
2
. ๐‘Š2
2
.
= ๐Ÿƒ2 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š2
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
๐‘…๐‘š
6
2
-13
-4
-8
16
10
15
8
13
ฦ๐‘…๐‘š
45%
๐‘…๐ด
11
8
-4
3
0
19
14
18
12
17
ฦ๐‘…๐ด
98%
๐‘…๐ต
16
11
-10
3
-3
30
22
29
19
26
ฦ๐‘…๐ต
143%
๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š
1.5
-2.5
-17.5
-8.5
-12.5
11.5
5.5
10.5
3.5
8.5
๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด
1.2
-1.8
-13.8
-6.8
9.8
9.2
4.2
8.2
2.2
7.2
๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต
1.7
-3.3
-24.3
-11.3
-17.3
15.7
7.7
14.7
4.7
11.7
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2
2.25
6.25
306.25
72.25
156.25
132.25
30.25
110.25
12.25
72.25
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2
900.50
(๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)2
1.44
3.24
190.44
46.24
96.04
84.64
17.64
67.24
4.84
51.84
ฦ (๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)2
563.60
(๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต)2
2.89
10.89
590.49
127.69
299.29
246.49
59.29
216.09
22.09
136.89
ฦ(๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต)2
1712.10
Average return on market
๐‘…๐‘š=
๐‘…๐‘š
๐‘
=
45
10
= 4.5%
Average return on Investment A
๐‘…๐ด=
๐‘…๐ด
๐‘
=
98
10
= 9.8%
Average return on Investment B
๐‘…๐ต=
๐‘…๐ต
๐‘
=
143
10
= 14.3%
Investment alternatives Variance(๐Ÿƒ๐‘—
2
) standard deviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘—)
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘—โˆ’๐‘…๐‘—)
2
๐‘โˆ’1
๐Ÿƒ๐‘—
2
Market
900.50
10โˆ’1
= 100.06 100.06 =10%
Investment A
563.60
10โˆ’1
= 62.62 62.62 =7.91%
Investment B
1712.10
10โˆ’1
= 190.23 190.23 =13.79%
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š
1.5
-2.5
-17.5
-8.5
-12.5
11.5
5.5
10.5
3.5
8.5
๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด
1.2
-1.8
-13.8
-6.8
9.8
9.2
4.2
8.2
2.2
7.2
๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต
1.7
-3.3
-24.3
-11.3
-17.3
15.7
7.7
14.7
4.7
11.7
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)
1.8
4.50
241.50
57.80
122.5
102.80
23.10
86.10
7.70
61.20
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘šโˆ’๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ดโˆ’๐‘…๐ด)
712
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต)
2.55
8.25
425.25
96.05
216.25
180.55
42.35
154.35
16.45
99.45
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)
1241.50
Covariance between market return
and investment A.( ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š)
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š=
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘šโˆ’๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ดโˆ’๐‘…๐ด)
๐‘โˆ’1
=
712
10โˆ’1
= 79.1
Correlation coefficient (๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š)
๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š=
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
=
79.1
7.91 ๐‘‹ 10
= 1
Beta coefficient (แ†‚ ๐ด
)
แ†‚ ๐ด=
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
2 =
79.1
100.06
= 0.79
Covariance between market return and
investment B.( ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š)
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š=
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘šโˆ’๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ตโˆ’๐‘…๐ต)
๐‘โˆ’1
=
1241.50
10โˆ’1
= 137.9
Correlation coefficient (๐‘Ÿ๐ต๐‘š)
๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š=
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐ต๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
=
137.9
13.79 ๐‘‹ 10
= 1
Beta coefficient (แ†‚ ๐ต
)
แ†‚ ๐ต=
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
2 =
137.9
100.06
= 1.38
Beta coefficient of investment A is less than 1 so it is less risky than
the market. Conversely, investment B has beta coefficient is greater
than 1 so it is more risky than market.
5.12 calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by
using following CAPM.
๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘—
5.13 calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by
using following CAPM.
Return of T-bill= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ = 3%
Beta=แตฆ๐‘—= 1.25
Market return =๐พ๐‘š = 13%
Expected rate of return = 14%
๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘—
Calculate the required rate of return than, compare
with required rate of return for decision making.
๐‘…๐‘–๐‘ ๐‘˜ ๐‘“๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘› (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)= 6%
Market return (๐พ๐‘š )= 14%
Beta coefficient of A company(แตฆ๐ด) = 1.55
Beta coefficient of B company(แตฆ๐ต) = 0.75
Price per share of A company = Rs.38
Price per share of B company = Rs.23
Number of share purchased for each company = 100 shares
calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by using following CAPM.
๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘—
a. For company A (๐‘…๐ด )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด
= 6 +(14-6)1.55
= 18.4%
b. For company B (๐‘…๐ต )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ต
= 6 +(14-6)0.75
= 12%
c. For Portfolio (๐‘…๐‘ƒ )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘ƒ
= 6 +(14-6)1.254
= 16.03%
๐‘Š๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘˜๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐‘๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘’
๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐žซ๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต
= 1.55 X
38
61
+ 0.75X
23
61
= 1.254
OR
๐‘…๐‘ƒ= ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต
= 18.4 X
38
61
+ 12 X
23
61
= 16.03%
๐‘…๐‘–๐‘ ๐‘˜ ๐‘“๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘› (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)= 6%
Market return (๐พ๐‘š )= 11%
Standard deviation on market (๐Ÿƒ๐‘š) = 11%
Correlation coefficient between asset A
and market (๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š) = 0.80
Standard deviation on asset A (๐Ÿƒ๐ด) = 9%
Calculate the Beta coefficient of asset A
(แตฆ๐ด) =
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
2
=
๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
2
=
0.80 ๐‘‹ 9 ๐‘‹ 11
112 = 0.65
Asset A is defensive assets because it has
less beta coefficient than market.
calculate the required/Required rate of
return (๐‘…๐‘—)
๐‘…๐ด = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด
= 6 +(11-6)0.65
= 9.25%
๐ท๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ค ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘†๐‘€๐ฟ ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘™๐‘œ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘ก ๐ด ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐‘–๐‘ก.
Calculate the systematic and unsystematic
risk.
Systematic risk =
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
=
๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
=
0.80 ๐‘‹ 9 ๐‘‹ 11
11
= 7.2%
Unsystematic risk= ๐Ÿƒ๐ด(1-๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š)
= 9(1-0.8) = 1.8%
Out of total risk (๐Ÿƒ๐ด), 80 percent (i.e
7.2
9
)
covered by systematic risk and remaining
20 percent (i.e
1.8
9
) covered by
unsystematic risk.
SML
Y
แตฆj =1 X
๐พ๐‘š=11%
๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“=6%
0.65
9.25%
A
Stocks
A
B
C
D
Price
100
240
410
190
Beta(๐žซ๐‘—)
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.8
Weight((๐‘Š
๐‘—)
0.1064
0.2553
0.4362
0.2021
๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š
๐‘—
0.14896
0.20424
0.56706
0.36378
๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š
๐‘— = 1.2840
Stocks
A
B
C
D
Price
(P)
100
240
410
190
Beta(๐žซ๐‘—)
1.4
0.8
1.3
1.8
Weight((๐‘Š
๐‘—)
0.0629
0.3019
0.5157
0.1195
๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š
๐‘—
0.08806
0.24152
0.67041
0.2151
ฦ ๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š
๐‘—=1.2151
No. share
(N)
100
200
200
100
Total value
(N XP)
10,000
48,000
82,000
19,000
B. Again calculate the portfolio beta, if an investor purchase each 200 shares of
stock B and C for every 100 shares of A and D.
๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“=
๐พ๐‘š=
แตฆ๐ด=
แตฆ๐ต=
แตฆ๐ถ=
แตฆ๐ท=
Required:
๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘—
๐ท๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ค ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘†๐‘€๐ฟ ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘™๐‘œ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘’๐‘Ž๐‘โ„Ž
๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘  ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐‘–๐‘ก.
SML
Y
แตฆj =1 X
๐žซ1 = 1.2
๐žซ2 = 0.9
a. Beta portfolio (๐žซ๐‘ƒ) = ?
If, ๐‘Š1 & ๐‘Š2 is 50/50 percent.
b. If, Beta portfolio (๐žซ๐‘ƒ) = 1.1
๐‘Š1 & ๐‘Š2 = ?
๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐žซ2 X ๐‘Š2
๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐žซ2 (1 โˆ’ ๐‘Š1)
๐‘Š1= โ€ฆโ€ฆ
Then,
๐‘Š2 = 1-๐‘Š1
Calculate the portfolio beta for each stock A & B.
Assets Beta(๐žซ ๐‘—
) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐žซ๐ดX W ๐ด ๐žซ๐ตX W ๐ต
1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.13 0.39
2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.21 0.07
3 1.25 0.1 0.2 0.125 0.25
4 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.11 0.22
5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.36 0.18
0.935 1.11
b. Portfolio beta for stock A is less than one so it is less risky than market.
Conversely, portfolio beta for stock B is greater than one so it is more risky than
market.
c. If Risk free rate of return and market return are 2 percent and 12 percent
respectively. Calculate the required rate of return for both stocks using CAPM.
For stock A(๐‘…๐ด )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด
For stock B(๐‘…๐ต )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ต
d. At, first Calculate the portfolio expected return for each stock A & B then give
the decision compare with required rate of return.
Assets (R๐‘—) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐‘…๐‘—X W ๐ด ๐‘…๐‘—X W ๐ต
1 16.5 0.1 0.3 1.65 4.95
2 12 0.3 0.1 3.6 1.2
3 15 0.1 0.2 1.5 3
4 13 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.6
5 7 0.4 0.2 2.8 1.4
10.85% 13.15%
Decision
Stocks Expected return Required return Select/Reject
A 10.85 11.35 Reject
B 13.15 13.10 Select
Status
Weak growth
Mod growth
Stro growth
๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ 
6
12
15
๐‘…๐‘š
8
10
12
๐‘…๐‘†๐‘‘
7
7
7
๐‘ƒ๐‘—
0.3333
0.3333
0.3333
๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘—
2.6664
3.333
3.9996
ฦ ๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=9.9999
OR
10%
๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘—
1.9998
3.9996
4.9995
ฦ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ x๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=10.9989
OR
11%
๐‘…๐‘†๐‘‘x๐‘ƒ๐‘—
2.3331
2.3331
2.3331
ฦ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘x๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=6.9993
OR
7%
๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š
-2
0
2
๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ 
5
1
4
๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘
0
0
0
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
1.3332
0
1.3332
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2
x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=2.6664
(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
3.333
0
2.6664
ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=5.9994
(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
8.3325
0.3333
5.3325
ฦ(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2
x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=13.9986
(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
0
0
0
ฦ(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2
x ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
=0
A. Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for
each stock.
For mutual fund (๐‘…๐‘š) = ๐‘…๐‘š. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 10%
For Common stock (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 11%
For Certif. od deposit (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 7%
B. Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each
stock.
Mutual fund (แ†š๐‘š) = (๐‘…๐‘š โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘š)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
= 2.6664 = 1.6329%
Common stock(แ†š๐ถ๐‘ )= (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
= 13.9986 = 3.7415%
Certificate of de (แ†š๐ถ๐‘‘) = (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘—
= 0 = 0%
Certificate of deposit is least/zero risky in terms
of standard deviation and common stock is most
risky in terms of beta because its beta is higher
than mutual fund and certificate of deposit.
C. Calculate the Portfolio risk and return.
Portfolio X has mutual fund (๐‘Š
๐‘š=75%)
and common stock (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ =25%)
Portfolio Y has common stock (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ =50%)
and certificate of deposit (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘=50%)
Cov between mutual fund and common stock
๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐‘š&๐ถ๐‘  = ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 5.9994
Cov between common stock and certificate of
deposit will be Zero because Std deviation of
certificate of deposit is zero.
For X Portfolio
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐‘š X ๐‘Š
๐‘š + ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ 
= 10 X 0.75 + 11 X 0.25 =10. 25%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š
2
. ๐‘Š
๐‘š
2
+๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘ 
2
. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ 
2
. +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐‘š&๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘Š
๐‘š. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ 
=
2.6664๐‘‹0.752 + 13.9986๐‘‹0.252 + 2 ๐‘‹ 5.994๐‘‹0.75๐‘‹0.25
=
= 2.1505%
C.V =
๐Ÿƒ๐’™
๐‘…๐‘ฅ
=
๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ“
10.25
= 0.2098
For Y Portfolio
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  + ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘ X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘
= 11 X 0.5 + 7 X 0.5 =9%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) =
๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘ 
2
. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ 
2
+๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘‘
2
. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘
2
. +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ถ๐‘ &๐ถ๐‘‘. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘
=
13.9986๐‘‹0.52 + 0๐‘‹0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ 0 ๐‘‹0.5 ๐‘‹0.5
=
= 1.871%
C.V =
๐Ÿƒ๐’š
๐‘…๐‘ฆ
=
๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ–๐Ÿ•๐Ÿ
9
= 0.2079
Calculation of portfolio beta (๐žซ๐‘ƒ)
For portfolio X(๐žซ๐‘ฅ) = ๐žซ๐‘š X ๐‘Š
๐‘š + ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ 
= 1 x 0.75 +1.2 x 0.25
= 1.05
For portfolio Y(๐žซ๐‘ฆ) = ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ + ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘‘ X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘
= 1.2 x 0.5 +0 x 0.5
= 0.60
In terms of beta portfolio Y is less risky
D. The standard deviation measure the total risk.
Total risk can be divided in two parts, systematic
risk and unsystematic risk. Beta is calculate to
measure systematic risk. In a well diversified
portfolio we are only bear the systematic risk. So
we calculate the beta.
I) Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for each stock.
For stock A (๐‘…๐ด) = ๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 20%
For stock B (๐‘…๐ต) = ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 30%
Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต
= 20 X 0.5 + 30 X 0.5
= 25%
II) Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each stock.
For stock A (แ†š๐ด) = (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 60 = 7.75%
For stock B (แ†š๐ต) = (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 240 = 15.49%
Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ)
(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด
2
. ๐‘Š๐ด
2
+๐Ÿƒ๐ต
2
. ๐‘Š๐ต
2
. +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ด๐ต. ๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต
= 7.752. 0.52 + 15.492. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ โˆ’120 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5
= 15.00065
= 3.87%
A. Ranking of stock from most risky to least risky based on beta
Stock Beta Rank
A 0.8 2
B 1.4 1
C -0.3 3
B. If market return increases by 12 percent, the changes in securities return
are as follow.
Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return
(๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š) (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘—) = ๐žซ๐‘—X ๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š
A 0.8 12% 9.6%
B 1.4 12 16.8
C -0.3 12 -3.6
C. If market return decreases by 5 percent, the changes in securities return
are as follow.
Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return
(๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š) (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘—) = ๐žซ๐‘—X ๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š
A 0.8 -5% -4%
B 1.4 -5% -7
C -0.3 -5% 1.5
d. If we felt the stock market was about to experience a significant decline,
we would be most likely to add to stock 'C' because it has negative beta,
negative beta means when market decline it increases.
e. If we anticipated a major stock market increases, we would be most likely
to add stock 'B' to our portfolio because its beta is the highest and to
produces/increases the market return.

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Portfolio Optimization and Risk Analysis

  • 1.
  • 2. Unit- Four and Five Return and risk- unit Four Modern portfolio- unit Five
  • 3. Portfolio Portfolio means making investment in more than one alternative at the same time. It is also called investment diversification or combination of investment. Total investable fund is invested in a single asset risk become higher. If investable fund is invested in more than one asset, risk became lower because profit from one area can compensate the loss in another assets. Portfolio theory The process of selecting optimal portfolio is called portfolio theory. A optimal portfolio is that ratio of investment, which fulfills the following objectives. minimizing risk if return is equal maximizing return if risk is equal So portfolio theory is the process of the selecting low riskier investment. This model developed by Harry Markowitz in 1952 AD This theory is based on the following assumption. By nature investor are risk averter Expected return of any portfolio is the mean value of probability distribution of future return. Deviation of return create the risk. Higher risk taking investor expects higher return and lower risk taking investor expect lower return.
  • 4. Selection of optimal portfolio 1. Create the Risk and Return indifference curve Risk Return Features of the indifference curve ๏ƒž Every point which lies on same risk return indifference curve gives the same satisfaction level. ๏ƒž Every upper risk return indifference curve gives more satisfaction ๏ƒž In lower level risk return indifference curve, return does not increase in accordance to risk increment but in upper level risk return indifference curve return increase as per the risk. p q O n r IC1 X Y IC3 IC2
  • 5. Selection of optimal portfolio 1. Create the Risk and Return indifference curve Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3 X Risk Return 2. Choice the efficient portfolio Port folio Return Risk A 10% 7% B 10% 6% Portfolio B is efficient base on risk Port folio Return Risk A 11% 7% B 10% 7% Portfolio 'A' is efficient base on return 3. Opportunity set Opportunity set is the combination of efficient and inefficient portfolio. It is also called attainable set. ABCD = Efficient portfolio/Frontier EFG= Inefficient portfolio/set ABCDEFG= Attainable set Efficient frontier= The line joining a portfolio having the hiest return in the same level of risk is known as efficient frontier. Return Risk D C B A E F G Attainable set
  • 6. 4. Optimal portfolio/Choice Y Ic2 Ic1 Ic3 Risk Return a b c Optimal portfolio is the combination of investment in assets which helps an investor to minimize risk if return is same or to maximize return if risk is same Optimal portfolio is selected involving the risk return indifference curve from the above efficient frontier. The meeting point of risk-return indifference curve of efficient frontier is assumed as optimal portfolio. Above the figure investor select the portfolio lies in the efficient frontier of the opportunity set, which is tangent to the indifferent curve of the investor, and the portfolio becomes optimal for him. The indifferent curve Ic2 tangent with efficient frontier at point 'b', here investor optimal portfolio at point 'b'. These point makes higher level of satisfaction to the investor. Investor would not be selected points 'a' and 'c' because these points has lower level of investor's satisfaction/higher level of risk
  • 7. Portfolio return Portfolio return refers to the return on the total investment when an investor invests in more than one asset. A portfolio return equals to the weighted average of the returns of the individual assets held in the portfolio. The sum of weight of all assets in a portfolio always equals to one as an investors spreads his total investable fund among the assets. Portfolio risk Portfolio risk means that risk which is created while investing in more than one assets all together. In the other words portfolio risk refers to the variability of expected returns of the portfolio. Portfolio risk can be measured in terms of variance and standard deviation.
  • 8. SML Krf Y Security Market line (SML) SML is the graphical representation of Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM). The equation of CAPM is the equation of SML. CAPM is the pricing model, it describes relationship between expected return and systematic risk of an individual asset. The SML appears as shown in following figure. Total risk = systematic + unsystematic risk SML only represent the part of systematic risk out of total risk. Slope of SML= ๐พ๐‘šโˆ’๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ ๐žซ๐‘š Slope of SML= ๐พ๐‘šโˆ’๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š Equation of SML(Rj) = Krf +(Km- Krf) แตฆj Decision If Rj > expected return, stock is overvalued and overvalued stock should sell. If Rj < expected return, stock is undervalued and under valued stock should purchase. If Rj = expected return, stock is indifferent in the market and investors follow the wait and see strategic. i.e no action. Km แตฆj Risk premium Km- Krf X Systematic risk Expected return
  • 9. Types of risk/sources of risk a. Business risk => Business risk refers to the uncertain about the rate of return caused by nature of business b. Financial risk=> The risk related to firm's capital structure i.e. debt mgmt, preferred stock and common share. c. Liquidity risk=> Liquidity risk associated with the uncertainly created by the inability to the sell the investment quickly for cash. d. Interest rate risk=> Change in the interest rate in market. e. Management risk=> The risk created due to different management policies decision and programs affect the risk faced by investors. f. Purchasing power risk=> The risk caused by inflaction.
  • 10. Risk free assets Some of investment, return of which is exactly known is called risk free assets. In other words, the assets with zero standard deviation in result between actual and expected return is called risk free assets. In case of Nepal treasury bill is an example of risk free assets. Treasury bill is defined as risk free assets because its maturity period and holding period are equal. If risky and risk free assets is given ๐‘…๐‘= ๐‘…๐‘š ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘š+๐‘…๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ ๐‘น๐’‘= ๐‘น๐’Ž ๐‘ฟ ๐‘พ๐’Ž + ๐‘น๐’“๐’‡ (๐Ÿโˆ’๐‘พ๐’Ž) แ†š๐‘= ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐‘š
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. We have given, Weighted of investment A (๐‘Š๐ด) = 30,000 1,00,000 = 0.3 Weighted of investment AB(๐‘Š๐ต) = 70,000 1,00,000 = 0.7 Expected return for investment A(๐‘…๐ด) = 10% Expected return for investment B(๐‘…๐ต) = 15% Calculate the expected return on portfolio(๐‘…๐‘ƒ) By the formula (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘ก=1 ๐‘› ๐‘…๐‘—๐‘‹ ๐‘Š ๐‘— = ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด+ ๐‘…๐ต ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š๐ต = 10 X 0.3 + 15 X 0.7 = 13.5%
  • 15. Year End price P1 Beg price Po Percentage return ๐‘น๐’‹ = ๐‘ท๐Ÿโˆ’๐‘ท๐ŸŽ ๐‘ท๐ŸŽ ๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’ ๐‘น๐’‹ (๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’ ๐‘น๐’‹)๐Ÿ 2012 55,000 50,000 55,000โˆ’50,000 50,000 = 10% 2013 58,000 55,000 58,000โˆ’55,000 55,000 = 5.45% 2014 65,000 58,000 65,000โˆ’58,000 58,000 = 12.07% 1015 70,000 65,000 70,000โˆ’65,000 65,000 = 7.69% Calculate the average return over the four year period and standard deviation. a. Average return(๐‘น๐’‹) = ๐‘…๐‘— ๐‘ = 10+5.45+12.07+7.69 4 = 35.22 4 = 8.80 b. Standard deviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘—)= (๐‘น๐’‹ โˆ’๐‘น๐’‹)๐Ÿ ๐‘โˆ’1 = ๐‘โˆ’1
  • 16.
  • 17. a. ๐‘…๐ด ๐‘…๐ต ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต (๐‘…๐ดโˆ’๐‘…๐ด )2๐‘‹๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ตโˆ’๐‘…๐ต)2X๐‘ƒ๐‘— 10 50 0.3 3 15 -10 20 30 120 20 30 0.4 8 12 0 0 0 0 30 10 0.3 9 3 10 -20 30 120 ๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2 . ๐‘ƒ๐‘— (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2 . ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 20% = 30% = 60 = 240 (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด) ( ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต ) ๐‘‹๐‘ƒ๐ฝ -60 0 -60 (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด) ( ๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต ) ๐‘‹๐‘ƒ ๐ฝ -120
  • 18. I) Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for each stock. For stock A (๐‘…๐ด) = ๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 20% For stock B (๐‘…๐ต) = ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 30% Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต = 20 X 0.5 + 30 X 0.5 = 25% II) Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each stock. For stock A (แ†š๐ด) = (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 60 = 7.75% For stock B (แ†š๐ต) = (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 240 = 15.49% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด 2 . ๐‘Š๐ด 2 +๐Ÿƒ๐ต 2 . ๐‘Š๐ต 2 . +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ด๐ต. ๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต = 7.752. 0.52 + 15.492. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ โˆ’120 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5 = 15.00065 = 3.87%
  • 19. (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด 2 . ๐‘Š๐ด 2 +๐Ÿƒ๐ต 2 . ๐‘Š๐ต 2 . +2๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐ต. ๐Ÿƒ๐ด. ๐Ÿƒ๐ต๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต
  • 20.
  • 21. Calculate the portfolio return over the four year period. Portfolio between Portfolio between XY XZ Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ ๐‘…๐‘ฆ ๐‘…๐‘ง ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ = 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฅ + 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฆ ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง = 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ฅ + 0.5๐‘‹๐‘…๐‘ง 2012 16 17 14 0.5x16+0.5x17 = 16.5 0.5x16+0.5x14 = 15 2013 17 16 15 0.5x17+0.5x16 = 16.5 0.5x17+0.5x15 = 16 2014 18 15 16 0.5x18+0.5x15 = 16.5 0.5x18+0.5x16 = 17 2015 19 14 17 0.5x19+0.5x14 = 16.5 0.5x19+0.5x17 = 18 ๐‘…๐‘ฅ =70% ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ = 66% ๐‘ƒ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง = 66% Portfolio average return, if 100 percent is invested in assets 'X' ๐‘…๐‘ฅ = ๐‘…๐‘ฅ ๐‘ = 70 4 = 17.5% Portfolio average return, if 50 percent is invested in assets 'X' and rest in 'Y' ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ = ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ ๐‘ = 66 4 = 16.5% Portfolio average return, if 50 percent is invested in assets 'X' and rest in 'Z' ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง = ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง ๐‘ = 66 4 = 16.5%
  • 22. B. Calculate the standard deviation. If 100 percent invested in investment 'X' Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ (๐‘…๐‘ฅ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2 2012 16 -1.5 2.25 2013 17 -0.5 0.25 2014 18 0.5 0.25 2015 19 1.5 2.25 (๐‘…๐‘ฅโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2 = 5 If 50 percent invested in investment 'X' and rest in investment 'Y' Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2 2012 16.5 0 0 2013 16.5 0 0 2014 16.5 0 0 2015 16.5 0 0 (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2 = 0
  • 23. If 50 percent invested in investment 'X' and rest in investment 'Z' Year ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2 2012 15 -1.5 2.25 2013 16 -0.5 0.25 2014 17 0.5 0.25 2015 18 1.5 2.25 (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘งโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2 = 5 Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ) = (๐‘…๐‘ฅโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ )2 ๐‘โˆ’1 = 5 4โˆ’1 = 1.29% Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ) = (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ฆ )2 ๐‘โˆ’1 = 0 4โˆ’1 = 0% Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘ฅ๐‘ง) = (๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘งโˆ’๐‘…๐‘ฅ๐‘ง )2 ๐‘โˆ’1 = 5 4โˆ’1 = 1.29% c. I would prefer portfolio XY comprising of 50 percent investment in assets X and 50 percent in Y because this portfolo reduces risk to zero .
  • 24.
  • 25. Quarterly holding period for two stocks are given below. Quarter ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 ๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2 (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2)2 1 7.2% 0.6% 3.55 -0.613 12.6025 0.3758 2 12.9 6 9.25 4.787 85.5625 22.958 3 7.4 0.6 3.75 -0.613 14.0625 0.3758 4 -2.1 9.7 -5.75 8.487 33.0625 72.029 5 4 -18 0.35 -19.213 0.1225 369.139 6 6.9 6.1 3.25 4.887 10.5625 23.883 7 -8.4 -1.8 -12.05 -3.013 145.2025 9.078 8 1.3 6.5 -2.35 5.287 5.5225 27.952 ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2 (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2 )2 Total 29.2 9.7 306.70 525.7476 a. I) Calculate the expected return for each stockk(๐‘…๐‘— ) Average return(๐‘…1) = ๐‘…1 ๐‘ = 29.2 8 =3.65% Average return(๐‘…2) = ๐‘…2 ๐‘ = 9.7 8 =1.21%
  • 26. a. II) Calculate the standard deviation (๐Ÿƒ๐’‹) Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ1) = (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 )2 ๐‘โˆ’1 = 306.70 8โˆ’1 = 6.62% Standarddeviation(๐Ÿƒ2) = (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2 )2 ๐‘โˆ’1 = 525.7476 8โˆ’1 =8.67% b. Again, calculate the correlation coefficient between stock 1 & 2 (๐‘Ÿ12) Quarter ๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2 (๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2) 1 3.55 -0.613 -2.17615 2 9.25 4.787 44.27975 3 3.75 -0.613 -2.29875 4 -5.75 8.487 -48.80025 5 0.35 -19.213 -6.72455 6 3.25 4.887 15.88275 7 -12.05 -3.013 36.30665 8 -2.35 5.287 -12.42445 (๐‘…1 โˆ’ ๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2 โˆ’ ๐‘…2) = 24.045
  • 27. Covariance between stock 1 & 2 (๐‘ช๐’๐’—๐Ÿ๐Ÿ) (๐‘ช๐’๐’—๐Ÿ๐Ÿ)= (๐‘…1โˆ’๐‘…1 ) (๐‘…2โˆ’๐‘…2) ๐‘โˆ’1 = 24.045 8โˆ’1 =3.44 Correlation coefficient between stock 1 & 2 (๐’“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ) (๐’“๐Ÿ๐Ÿ) = ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ12 ๐Ÿƒ1 ๐‘‹ ๐Ÿƒ2 = 3.44 6.62 ๐‘‹ 8.67 = 0.0599 C. We have to given, Weighted of first stock (๐‘Š1) = 0.5 Weighted of second stock (๐‘Š2) = 0.5 Average return(๐‘…1) =3.65% Average return(๐‘…2) =1.21% Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐‘…2 X ๐‘Š2 = 3.65 X 0.5 + 1.21 X 0.5 = 2.43% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ1 2 . ๐‘Š1 2 +๐Ÿƒ2 2 . ๐‘Š2 2 . +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰12. ๐‘Š1. ๐‘Š2 = 6.622. 0.52 + 8.672. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ 3.44 ๐‘‹ 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5 = 5.61% Correlation coefficient two stocks is lower positive so the portfolio offers the benefit risk reduction. The portfolio risk is lower than individual risk of stock 1 and stock 2.
  • 28. We have given, Risky and risk free assets Return on risk free assets (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“) =2% Return on risky assets (๐‘…๐‘Ÿ) = 2.43 (find in part 'C) Risk on risky assets (๐Ÿƒ๐‘Ÿ) = 5.61(find in part 'C) Weighted on risk free assets (๐‘ค๐‘Ÿ๐‘“) = 10% i.e 0.1 Weighted on risky assets (๐‘ค๐‘Ÿ) = 90% i.e 0.9 Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐‘Ÿ X ๐‘Š ๐‘Ÿ + ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ X ๐‘Š๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ = 2.43 X 0.9 + 2 X 0.1 = 2.39% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐‘Ÿ X ๐‘Š ๐‘Ÿ = 5.61 X 0.9 = 5.05% = ๐Ÿƒ1 2 . ๐‘Š1 2 +๐Ÿƒ2 2 . ๐‘Š2 2 . +2๐‘Ÿ12. ๐Ÿƒ1. ๐Ÿƒ2. ๐‘Š1. ๐‘Š2. = 0 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š1 2 +๐Ÿƒ2 2 . ๐‘Š2 2 . +2 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Ÿ12๐‘‹ 0. ๐‘‹ ๐Ÿƒ2๐‘‹ ๐‘Š1๐‘‹ ๐‘Š2. = ๐Ÿƒ2 2 . ๐‘Š2 2 . = ๐Ÿƒ2 ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š2
  • 29.
  • 30. Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ๐‘…๐‘š 6 2 -13 -4 -8 16 10 15 8 13 ฦ๐‘…๐‘š 45% ๐‘…๐ด 11 8 -4 3 0 19 14 18 12 17 ฦ๐‘…๐ด 98% ๐‘…๐ต 16 11 -10 3 -3 30 22 29 19 26 ฦ๐‘…๐ต 143% ๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š 1.5 -2.5 -17.5 -8.5 -12.5 11.5 5.5 10.5 3.5 8.5 ๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด 1.2 -1.8 -13.8 -6.8 9.8 9.2 4.2 8.2 2.2 7.2 ๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต 1.7 -3.3 -24.3 -11.3 -17.3 15.7 7.7 14.7 4.7 11.7 (๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2 2.25 6.25 306.25 72.25 156.25 132.25 30.25 110.25 12.25 72.25 ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2 900.50 (๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)2 1.44 3.24 190.44 46.24 96.04 84.64 17.64 67.24 4.84 51.84 ฦ (๐‘…๐ด-๐‘…๐ด)2 563.60 (๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต)2 2.89 10.89 590.49 127.69 299.29 246.49 59.29 216.09 22.09 136.89 ฦ(๐‘…๐ต-๐‘…๐ต)2 1712.10 Average return on market ๐‘…๐‘š= ๐‘…๐‘š ๐‘ = 45 10 = 4.5% Average return on Investment A ๐‘…๐ด= ๐‘…๐ด ๐‘ = 98 10 = 9.8% Average return on Investment B ๐‘…๐ต= ๐‘…๐ต ๐‘ = 143 10 = 14.3%
  • 31. Investment alternatives Variance(๐Ÿƒ๐‘— 2 ) standard deviation(๐Ÿƒ๐‘—) ฦ(๐‘…๐‘—โˆ’๐‘…๐‘—) 2 ๐‘โˆ’1 ๐Ÿƒ๐‘— 2 Market 900.50 10โˆ’1 = 100.06 100.06 =10% Investment A 563.60 10โˆ’1 = 62.62 62.62 =7.91% Investment B 1712.10 10โˆ’1 = 190.23 190.23 =13.79%
  • 33. Covariance between market return and investment A.( ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š) ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š= ฦ(๐‘…๐‘šโˆ’๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ดโˆ’๐‘…๐ด) ๐‘โˆ’1 = 712 10โˆ’1 = 79.1 Correlation coefficient (๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š) ๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š= ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š = 79.1 7.91 ๐‘‹ 10 = 1 Beta coefficient (แ†‚ ๐ด ) แ†‚ ๐ด= ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š 2 = 79.1 100.06 = 0.79 Covariance between market return and investment B.( ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š) ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š= ฦ(๐‘…๐‘šโˆ’๐‘…๐‘š) (๐‘…๐ตโˆ’๐‘…๐ต) ๐‘โˆ’1 = 1241.50 10โˆ’1 = 137.9 Correlation coefficient (๐‘Ÿ๐ต๐‘š) ๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š= ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐ต๐Ÿƒ๐‘š = 137.9 13.79 ๐‘‹ 10 = 1 Beta coefficient (แ†‚ ๐ต ) แ†‚ ๐ต= ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ต๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š 2 = 137.9 100.06 = 1.38 Beta coefficient of investment A is less than 1 so it is less risky than the market. Conversely, investment B has beta coefficient is greater than 1 so it is more risky than market.
  • 34.
  • 35. 5.12 calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by using following CAPM. ๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘— 5.13 calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by using following CAPM. Return of T-bill= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ = 3% Beta=แตฆ๐‘—= 1.25 Market return =๐พ๐‘š = 13% Expected rate of return = 14% ๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘— Calculate the required rate of return than, compare with required rate of return for decision making.
  • 36.
  • 37. ๐‘…๐‘–๐‘ ๐‘˜ ๐‘“๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘› (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)= 6% Market return (๐พ๐‘š )= 14% Beta coefficient of A company(แตฆ๐ด) = 1.55 Beta coefficient of B company(แตฆ๐ต) = 0.75 Price per share of A company = Rs.38 Price per share of B company = Rs.23 Number of share purchased for each company = 100 shares calculate the required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) by using following CAPM. ๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘— a. For company A (๐‘…๐ด )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด = 6 +(14-6)1.55 = 18.4% b. For company B (๐‘…๐ต )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ต = 6 +(14-6)0.75 = 12% c. For Portfolio (๐‘…๐‘ƒ )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘ƒ = 6 +(14-6)1.254 = 16.03% ๐‘Š๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘˜๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐‘๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐žซ๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต = 1.55 X 38 61 + 0.75X 23 61 = 1.254 OR ๐‘…๐‘ƒ= ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต = 18.4 X 38 61 + 12 X 23 61 = 16.03%
  • 38.
  • 39. ๐‘…๐‘–๐‘ ๐‘˜ ๐‘“๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘œ๐‘“ ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘› (๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)= 6% Market return (๐พ๐‘š )= 11% Standard deviation on market (๐Ÿƒ๐‘š) = 11% Correlation coefficient between asset A and market (๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š) = 0.80 Standard deviation on asset A (๐Ÿƒ๐ด) = 9% Calculate the Beta coefficient of asset A (แตฆ๐ด) = ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š 2 = ๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š 2 = 0.80 ๐‘‹ 9 ๐‘‹ 11 112 = 0.65 Asset A is defensive assets because it has less beta coefficient than market. calculate the required/Required rate of return (๐‘…๐‘—) ๐‘…๐ด = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด = 6 +(11-6)0.65 = 9.25% ๐ท๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ค ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘†๐‘€๐ฟ ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘™๐‘œ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘ก ๐ด ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐‘–๐‘ก. Calculate the systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk = ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐ด๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š = ๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š๐Ÿƒ๐ด๐Ÿƒ๐‘š ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š = 0.80 ๐‘‹ 9 ๐‘‹ 11 11 = 7.2% Unsystematic risk= ๐Ÿƒ๐ด(1-๐‘Ÿ๐ด๐‘š) = 9(1-0.8) = 1.8% Out of total risk (๐Ÿƒ๐ด), 80 percent (i.e 7.2 9 ) covered by systematic risk and remaining 20 percent (i.e 1.8 9 ) covered by unsystematic risk. SML Y แตฆj =1 X ๐พ๐‘š=11% ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“=6% 0.65 9.25% A
  • 40.
  • 41. Stocks A B C D Price 100 240 410 190 Beta(๐žซ๐‘—) 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 Weight((๐‘Š ๐‘—) 0.1064 0.2553 0.4362 0.2021 ๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š ๐‘— 0.14896 0.20424 0.56706 0.36378 ๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š ๐‘— = 1.2840 Stocks A B C D Price (P) 100 240 410 190 Beta(๐žซ๐‘—) 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.8 Weight((๐‘Š ๐‘—) 0.0629 0.3019 0.5157 0.1195 ๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘ฅ ๐‘Š ๐‘— 0.08806 0.24152 0.67041 0.2151 ฦ ๐žซ๐‘— ๐‘‹ ๐‘Š ๐‘—=1.2151 No. share (N) 100 200 200 100 Total value (N XP) 10,000 48,000 82,000 19,000 B. Again calculate the portfolio beta, if an investor purchase each 200 shares of stock B and C for every 100 shares of A and D.
  • 42. ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“= ๐พ๐‘š= แตฆ๐ด= แตฆ๐ต= แตฆ๐ถ= แตฆ๐ท= Required: ๐‘…๐‘— = ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐‘— ๐ท๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ค ๐‘กโ„Ž๐‘’ ๐‘†๐‘€๐ฟ ๐‘Ž๐‘›๐‘‘ ๐‘™๐‘œ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘’ ๐‘’๐‘Ž๐‘โ„Ž ๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘  ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐‘–๐‘ก. SML Y แตฆj =1 X
  • 43.
  • 44. ๐žซ1 = 1.2 ๐žซ2 = 0.9 a. Beta portfolio (๐žซ๐‘ƒ) = ? If, ๐‘Š1 & ๐‘Š2 is 50/50 percent. b. If, Beta portfolio (๐žซ๐‘ƒ) = 1.1 ๐‘Š1 & ๐‘Š2 = ? ๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐žซ2 X ๐‘Š2 ๐žซ๐‘ƒ= ๐žซ1 X ๐‘Š1 + ๐žซ2 (1 โˆ’ ๐‘Š1) ๐‘Š1= โ€ฆโ€ฆ Then, ๐‘Š2 = 1-๐‘Š1
  • 45.
  • 46. Calculate the portfolio beta for each stock A & B. Assets Beta(๐žซ ๐‘— ) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐žซ๐ดX W ๐ด ๐žซ๐ตX W ๐ต 1 1.3 0.1 0.3 0.13 0.39 2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.21 0.07 3 1.25 0.1 0.2 0.125 0.25 4 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.11 0.22 5 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.36 0.18 0.935 1.11 b. Portfolio beta for stock A is less than one so it is less risky than market. Conversely, portfolio beta for stock B is greater than one so it is more risky than market. c. If Risk free rate of return and market return are 2 percent and 12 percent respectively. Calculate the required rate of return for both stocks using CAPM. For stock A(๐‘…๐ด )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ด For stock B(๐‘…๐ต )= ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ + (๐พ๐‘š โˆ’ ๐พ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“)แตฆ๐ต
  • 47. d. At, first Calculate the portfolio expected return for each stock A & B then give the decision compare with required rate of return. Assets (R๐‘—) W ๐ด W ๐ต ๐‘…๐‘—X W ๐ด ๐‘…๐‘—X W ๐ต 1 16.5 0.1 0.3 1.65 4.95 2 12 0.3 0.1 3.6 1.2 3 15 0.1 0.2 1.5 3 4 13 0.1 0.2 1.3 2.6 5 7 0.4 0.2 2.8 1.4 10.85% 13.15% Decision Stocks Expected return Required return Select/Reject A 10.85 11.35 Reject B 13.15 13.10 Select
  • 48.
  • 49. Status Weak growth Mod growth Stro growth ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  6 12 15 ๐‘…๐‘š 8 10 12 ๐‘…๐‘†๐‘‘ 7 7 7 ๐‘ƒ๐‘— 0.3333 0.3333 0.3333 ๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘— 2.6664 3.333 3.9996 ฦ ๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘— =9.9999 OR 10% ๐‘…๐‘šx๐‘ƒ๐‘— 1.9998 3.9996 4.9995 ฦ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ x๐‘ƒ๐‘— =10.9989 OR 11% ๐‘…๐‘†๐‘‘x๐‘ƒ๐‘— 2.3331 2.3331 2.3331 ฦ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘x๐‘ƒ๐‘— =6.9993 OR 7% ๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š -2 0 2 ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  5 1 4 ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘ 0 0 0 (๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— 1.3332 0 1.3332 ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)2 x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— =2.6664 (๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘— 3.333 0 2.6664 ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘— =5.9994 (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— 8.3325 0.3333 5.3325 ฦ(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2 x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— =13.9986 (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— 0 0 0 ฦ(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘-๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2 x ๐‘ƒ๐‘— =0
  • 50. A. Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for each stock. For mutual fund (๐‘…๐‘š) = ๐‘…๐‘š. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 10% For Common stock (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 11% For Certif. od deposit (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 7% B. Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each stock. Mutual fund (แ†š๐‘š) = (๐‘…๐‘š โˆ’ ๐‘…๐‘š)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 2.6664 = 1.6329% Common stock(แ†š๐ถ๐‘ )= (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ )2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 13.9986 = 3.7415% Certificate of de (แ†š๐ถ๐‘‘) = (๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘ โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 0 = 0% Certificate of deposit is least/zero risky in terms of standard deviation and common stock is most risky in terms of beta because its beta is higher than mutual fund and certificate of deposit. C. Calculate the Portfolio risk and return. Portfolio X has mutual fund (๐‘Š ๐‘š=75%) and common stock (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ =25%) Portfolio Y has common stock (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ =50%) and certificate of deposit (๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘=50%) Cov between mutual fund and common stock ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฃ๐‘š&๐ถ๐‘  = ฦ(๐‘…๐‘š-๐‘…๐‘š)(๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ -๐‘…๐ถ๐‘ ) ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 5.9994 Cov between common stock and certificate of deposit will be Zero because Std deviation of certificate of deposit is zero. For X Portfolio Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐‘š X ๐‘Š ๐‘š + ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  = 10 X 0.75 + 11 X 0.25 =10. 25% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐‘š 2 . ๐‘Š ๐‘š 2 +๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘  2 . ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  2 . +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐‘š&๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘Š ๐‘š. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  = 2.6664๐‘‹0.752 + 13.9986๐‘‹0.252 + 2 ๐‘‹ 5.994๐‘‹0.75๐‘‹0.25 = = 2.1505% C.V = ๐Ÿƒ๐’™ ๐‘…๐‘ฅ = ๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ๐Ÿ“๐ŸŽ๐Ÿ“ 10.25 = 0.2098
  • 51. For Y Portfolio Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  + ๐‘…๐ถ๐‘‘ X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘ = 11 X 0.5 + 7 X 0.5 =9% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘  2 . ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  2 +๐Ÿƒ๐ถ๐‘‘ 2 . ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘ 2 . +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ถ๐‘ &๐ถ๐‘‘. ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ . ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘ = 13.9986๐‘‹0.52 + 0๐‘‹0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ 0 ๐‘‹0.5 ๐‘‹0.5 = = 1.871% C.V = ๐Ÿƒ๐’š ๐‘…๐‘ฆ = ๐Ÿ.๐Ÿ–๐Ÿ•๐Ÿ 9 = 0.2079 Calculation of portfolio beta (๐žซ๐‘ƒ) For portfolio X(๐žซ๐‘ฅ) = ๐žซ๐‘š X ๐‘Š ๐‘š + ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘  = 1 x 0.75 +1.2 x 0.25 = 1.05 For portfolio Y(๐žซ๐‘ฆ) = ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘  X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘ + ๐žซ๐ถ๐‘‘ X ๐‘Š๐ถ๐‘‘ = 1.2 x 0.5 +0 x 0.5 = 0.60 In terms of beta portfolio Y is less risky D. The standard deviation measure the total risk. Total risk can be divided in two parts, systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Beta is calculate to measure systematic risk. In a well diversified portfolio we are only bear the systematic risk. So we calculate the beta.
  • 52. I) Calculate the Expected return (๐‘…๐‘—) for each stock. For stock A (๐‘…๐ด) = ๐‘…๐ด. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 20% For stock B (๐‘…๐ต) = ๐‘…๐ต. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 30% Portfolio return (๐‘…๐‘ƒ) = ๐‘…๐ด X ๐‘Š๐ด + ๐‘…๐ต X ๐‘Š๐ต = 20 X 0.5 + 30 X 0.5 = 25% II) Calculation of standard deviation (แ†š๐‘—) for each stock. For stock A (แ†š๐ด) = (๐‘…๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ด)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 60 = 7.75% For stock B (แ†š๐ต) = (๐‘…๐ต โˆ’ ๐‘…๐ต)2. ๐‘ƒ๐‘— = 240 = 15.49% Portfolio risk/ standard deviation of portfolio (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) (๐Ÿƒ๐‘ƒ) = ๐Ÿƒ๐ด 2 . ๐‘Š๐ด 2 +๐Ÿƒ๐ต 2 . ๐‘Š๐ต 2 . +2๐ถ๐‘‚๐‘‰๐ด๐ต. ๐‘Š๐ด. ๐‘Š๐ต = 7.752. 0.52 + 15.492. 0.52 + 2 ๐‘‹ โˆ’120 0.5 ๐‘‹0.5 = 15.00065 = 3.87%
  • 53.
  • 54. A. Ranking of stock from most risky to least risky based on beta Stock Beta Rank A 0.8 2 B 1.4 1 C -0.3 3 B. If market return increases by 12 percent, the changes in securities return are as follow. Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š) (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘—) = ๐žซ๐‘—X ๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š A 0.8 12% 9.6% B 1.4 12 16.8 C -0.3 12 -3.6 C. If market return decreases by 5 percent, the changes in securities return are as follow. Stock Beta Increase in Mkt return Change in security's return (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š) (๐ž“๐‘…๐‘—) = ๐žซ๐‘—X ๐ž“๐‘…๐‘š A 0.8 -5% -4% B 1.4 -5% -7 C -0.3 -5% 1.5
  • 55. d. If we felt the stock market was about to experience a significant decline, we would be most likely to add to stock 'C' because it has negative beta, negative beta means when market decline it increases. e. If we anticipated a major stock market increases, we would be most likely to add stock 'B' to our portfolio because its beta is the highest and to produces/increases the market return.