Q4 Market Report Dubai

Q42015
Dubai Residential
Market Report

Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com 2
• Price performance
• Rent performance
• Residential supply
• Cavendish Maxwell Residential
Market Survey - Q4 2015
Content
Sale price movement
Q3 2015 - Q4 2015
-1% -1%
Q4 2014 - Q4 2015
-6% -8%

Apartments
• Apartment prices declined, on average, by 1% in
Q4 2015, where International City declined slightly faster
at 2%.
• During the last 12 months, apartment price declines varied significantly
across Dubai, dropping an average of 6% with peripheral locations such as
Discovery Gardens, International City and Motor City declining the most
at 9%, 9% and 10% respectively.
Sale performance
Apartments sale performance
Figure 1
Source: Property Monitor Index
-‐12%

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Business
Bay
Discovery

Gardens

Downtown
Burj

Khalifa

Dubai
Marina
Dubai
Sports

City

Emirates
Living

(Views
and

Greens)

InternaOonal

City

Jumeirah

Beach

Residences

Motor
City
Palm
Jumeirah

(Shoreline

Apartments)

%
change

Average
price

AED
/
sq
V

Q3
2015
Q4
2015
QoQ
%
change
12
month
change

QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015Q4 2015Q3 2015 12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015
-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
-2%
-1% -1% -1%
-6%
-9%
-4%
-6% -6%
-5%
-9%
-4%
-10%
-6%

-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Al Furjan
Villas
Arabian
Ranches
Jumeirah Golf
Estates
Jumeirah
Islands
Jumeirah
Park
Jumeirah
Village
Triangle
The Lakes The
Meadows
The Springs Victory
Heights
Averageprice
AED/sqft
Q3 2015 Q4 2015 QoQ % change 12 month change
Villas
• Villa prices have declined by an average of 1% in Q4
2015, slower than the 2% in Q3 2015.
• On average, villa prices have declined by approximately
8% in the last 12 months. Prices at more established villa
communities such as The Meadows and Springs declined
by 12% and 18% respectively as buyers opted to purchase
in the newer and upcoming communities.
Sale performance
Villas sale performance
Figure 2
Source: Property Monitor Index
-‐20%

-‐18%

-‐16%

-‐14%

-‐12%

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Al
Furjan

Villas

Arabian

Ranches

Jumeirah

Golf
Estates

Jumeirah

Islands

Jumeirah

Park

Jumeirah

Village

Triangle

The
Lakes
The

Meadows

The
Springs
Victory

Heights

%
change

Average
price

AED
/
sq
S

Q4
2015
Q3
2015
QoQ
%
change
12
month
change

-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-6%
-10%
-7%
-12%
-18%
-7%
QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015Q4 2015Q3 2015 12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015

Apartments
• Apartment rents have slightly declined by 1% in Q4 2015
and approximately 3% during 2015 across Dubai.
• The rate of decline varies from one development to
another with International City rents declining at a higher
rate of 2%, similar to the sale price trend in Q4 2015.
• On average, studio rental rates have increased while one
and two bed rents have during Q4 2015.
Villas
• Villa rents have followed a similar trend as apartments
with an average drop of 1% in Q4 2015 from Q3 2015
and a 3% decline during 2015.
• Rents in prime villa communities such as Arabian Ranches,
Jumeirah Golf Estates and Jumeirah Islands remained
relatively stable in Q4 2015 as in Q3 2015.
• Rents of three and five bed villas remained stable,
whereas four bed villa rents have declined in Q4 2015.
Rent performance
Business Bay
Discovery Gardens
Dubai Marina
Dubai Sports City
International City
Jumeirah Beach Residences
Motor City
Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apartments)
The Greens
The Views
Al Furjan Villas
Arabian Ranches
Jumeirah Golf Estates
Jumeirah Islands
Jumeirah Park
Jumeirah Village Triangle
The Lakes
The Meadows
The Springs
Victory Heights
2 bed 5 bed1 bed 4 bedStudio 3 bed
97
88
122
96
72
111
84
-
147
150
49
69
70
-
64
55
76
64
74
-
94
65
111
71
65
116
70
111
111
118
-
70
63
59
61
53
75
62
70
75
89
-
106
70
52
115
69
107
102
107
42
70
60
61
62
-
86
66
-
70
Figure 3 Figure 4 Source: Property Monitor IndexSource: Property Monitor Index
Apartments rental performance Villas rental performance
Rental rate
AED/sq ft/annum
Q4 2015
Rental rate
AED/sq ft/annum
Q4 2015

• Approximately 8,800 additional residential units entered the Dubai market in 2015.
• Over 70% of those are apartments with the remainder being villas and townhouses.
• Major completions in Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubailand.
• Approximately 7,000 units have been delayed from 2015 to 2016.
• Excluding those, 30,000 units have been scheduled for delivery in 2016, which may be
subject to potential delays.
• The Dubai government budget for 2016 was increased by 12% to AED 46.1 billion, of
which 14% allocated to infrastructure, which shows continued commitment toward the
growth of Dubai leading up to 2020.
2015 Completions
Pipeline
Residential supply

Looking back - Q4 2015 - sales and rents
Q1 2016 sales outlook
Apartments
Percentage of agents who predicted
apartment prices would:
Villas
villa prices would:
Q1 20165 rents outlook
Apartments
apartment rents would:
Villas
villa rents would:
Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey
36% of agents surveyed had predicted villa
prices to decline by up to 5%
predictions vs reality
40% of agents surveyed had predicted
apartment prices to remain unchanged.
Majority of agents surveyed had predicted that
rents would remain the same for both apartments
and villas.
Villa prices fell by 1%
Apartment prices fell by 1%
Apartment and villa rents declined by 1%
increase by more than 5% increase by up to 5% not change decrease by up to 5% decrease by more than 5%increase by more than 5% increase by up to 5% not change decrease by up to 5% decrease by more than 5%
Figure 8 Figure 9Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey
46%
7%
33%
14% 18%
39%
5%
38%
43%
9%
34%
14%
45%
5%
34%
2%
11%
3%0%0%

PROPERTY SERVICES
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
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Also contact us for:
Miles Phillips BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArb
Partner
Head of Operations - UAE
M: +971 56 604 2750
E: miles.phillips@cavendishmaxwell.com
Sofia Underabi BPropEc AAPI
Partner
Head of Residential Valuation
M: +971 50 435 6527
E: sofia.underabi@cavendishmaxwell.com
Dima Isshak BSc
Research Manager
M: +971 50 482 7938
E: dima.isshak@cavendishmaxwell.com
Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons)
Managing Partner
M: +971 50 192 1658
E: jay.grant@cavendishmaxwell.com
Jonathan Brown BSc (Hons) FRICS
Head of Abu Dhabi Office
M: +971 50 940 3540
E: jonathan.brown@cavendishmaxwell.com

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