SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 11
Debbie Lewis
Director – Resilience Planning
Axiom (Alderney) LTD
 ‘When not if’
 Previous incidents relatively benign
 Harbingers of future impact events
 Little, or no, warning time available
 Insufficient time for consequence management
 Insufficient time to exercise response
arrangements
 Insufficient time to prepare population,
politicians and the press……!
 International response for both mitigation
methods and civil protection
 International command, control, co-ordination
and communication arrangements
 Determine decision-making capacities
 Informing the policy for response
 Minimising the costly insurance claims for
natural disasters
 Protecting lives and livelihoods
30 June 1908
2000 km2 of Taiga were destroyed in Siberia
Crater with
14-m diameter
formed by
impact from
space in 2007.
 5m in diameter
 Identified 19 hours
prior to impact
 Trajectory tracked by
MPC/JPL
 Predicted location of
impact site
 Remote area of the
Nubian Desert
 Asteroid between 5
and 10 metres in
diameter
 Island of Sulewesi,
Indonesia
 8 October 2009
 15 Feb 2013
 Diameter of object: 19m
 Total energy: equiv. to
480kt TNT
 7300 buildings damaged
 > 1500 people injured
 > 100 kg of meteorites
found
Asteroid could not be seen approaching, (too close to direct sun)
and was too faint for prior detection during the last 10 years.
Uncertainty exists as to the extent of the scale of a NEO
impact for six reasons:
1. The NEO population is not sufficiently understood
2. Inability to determine impact levels for objects
between 50m and 140m in diameter
3. Unknown composition of NEOs
4. Variable collision effects
5. Effects may exceed local and regional areas and
have global effects
6. The size and type of NEO which would cause these
effects
EARTHQUAKE, CHILE
WINTER STORMS, FRANCE, GERMANY AND SPAIN
EARTHQUAKE, NEW ZEALAND
STORMS (MAY), UNITED STATES
STORMS (APRIL), UNITED STATES
STORMS & FLOODS, AUSTRALIA
STORMS & MUDSLIDES, AUSTRALIA
OIL SPILL, GULF OF MEXICO
$8,000,000,000
$2,900,000,000
$2,700,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,020,000,000
$1,010,000,000
$1,000,000,000
Most Costly Insurance Claims - 2010
(SwissRe as cited in Griffiths, 2010:57)

More Related Content

Similar to Responding to asteroid threat scenarios - The importance of impact simulation exercises PC version 2

Davies - adverting predicted
Davies - adverting predictedDavies - adverting predicted
Davies - adverting predictedceriuniroma
 
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015Edmund Villareal
 
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)glennmcgillivray
 
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdfAyshaPandey
 
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.pptITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.pptMayankGautam216027
 
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.doc
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.docJack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.doc
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.docJack Oughton
 
Bonilla's Observation
Bonilla's ObservationBonilla's Observation
Bonilla's ObservationFatemeh Majd
 
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docx
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docxEnvironmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docx
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docxDrVenkateswarluGogan1
 
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwa
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwaThe tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwa
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwaMikeMukuwa
 
Disaster Management1
Disaster Management1Disaster Management1
Disaster Management1Nijo Ninan
 
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01Ptpg Stuc
 

Similar to Responding to asteroid threat scenarios - The importance of impact simulation exercises PC version 2 (20)

Davies - adverting predicted
Davies - adverting predictedDavies - adverting predicted
Davies - adverting predicted
 
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015
UHS DRRMO Awareness program 2015
 
Impacts
ImpactsImpacts
Impacts
 
Essay Earthquake
Essay EarthquakeEssay Earthquake
Essay Earthquake
 
Earthquake mixon
Earthquake mixonEarthquake mixon
Earthquake mixon
 
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)
ICLR Friday Forum: Near-Earth Asteroid Impact (December 13, 2019)
 
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf
10 Earthquake prone counrtries.Information about Earthquake (2).pdf
 
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.pptITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt
ITU_JTF_Madrid 2013_INTRO_ C BARNES_V2.ppt
 
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.doc
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.docJack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.doc
Jack Oughton - Astronomy, Eschatology and Apocalypse- Threats From Space.doc
 
intro.pptx
intro.pptxintro.pptx
intro.pptx
 
Bonilla's Observation
Bonilla's ObservationBonilla's Observation
Bonilla's Observation
 
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docx
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docxEnvironmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docx
Environmental Hazards and Environmental Disaster and Its Types.docx
 
Layers Of The Atmosphere
Layers Of The AtmosphereLayers Of The Atmosphere
Layers Of The Atmosphere
 
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwa
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwaThe tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwa
The tsunami; its mechanisms, socioeconomic and environmental impacts mike mukuwa
 
Terra Seismic : Global Earthquake Prediction Systems
Terra Seismic : Global Earthquake Prediction SystemsTerra Seismic : Global Earthquake Prediction Systems
Terra Seismic : Global Earthquake Prediction Systems
 
Disaster Management1
Disaster Management1Disaster Management1
Disaster Management1
 
New Energy Part 3: The Science - Why we need New Energy now
New Energy Part 3: The Science - Why we need New Energy nowNew Energy Part 3: The Science - Why we need New Energy now
New Energy Part 3: The Science - Why we need New Energy now
 
Earthquake Essays
Earthquake EssaysEarthquake Essays
Earthquake Essays
 
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01
Socialproject 140727035528-phpapp01
 
GeoCosmo Earthquake Forecasting
GeoCosmo Earthquake ForecastingGeoCosmo Earthquake Forecasting
GeoCosmo Earthquake Forecasting
 

Responding to asteroid threat scenarios - The importance of impact simulation exercises PC version 2

  • 1. Debbie Lewis Director – Resilience Planning Axiom (Alderney) LTD
  • 2.  ‘When not if’  Previous incidents relatively benign  Harbingers of future impact events  Little, or no, warning time available  Insufficient time for consequence management  Insufficient time to exercise response arrangements  Insufficient time to prepare population, politicians and the press……!
  • 3.  International response for both mitigation methods and civil protection  International command, control, co-ordination and communication arrangements  Determine decision-making capacities  Informing the policy for response  Minimising the costly insurance claims for natural disasters  Protecting lives and livelihoods
  • 4. 30 June 1908 2000 km2 of Taiga were destroyed in Siberia
  • 5. Crater with 14-m diameter formed by impact from space in 2007.
  • 6.  5m in diameter  Identified 19 hours prior to impact  Trajectory tracked by MPC/JPL  Predicted location of impact site  Remote area of the Nubian Desert
  • 7.  Asteroid between 5 and 10 metres in diameter  Island of Sulewesi, Indonesia  8 October 2009
  • 8.  15 Feb 2013  Diameter of object: 19m  Total energy: equiv. to 480kt TNT  7300 buildings damaged  > 1500 people injured  > 100 kg of meteorites found Asteroid could not be seen approaching, (too close to direct sun) and was too faint for prior detection during the last 10 years.
  • 9. Uncertainty exists as to the extent of the scale of a NEO impact for six reasons: 1. The NEO population is not sufficiently understood 2. Inability to determine impact levels for objects between 50m and 140m in diameter 3. Unknown composition of NEOs 4. Variable collision effects 5. Effects may exceed local and regional areas and have global effects 6. The size and type of NEO which would cause these effects
  • 10.
  • 11. EARTHQUAKE, CHILE WINTER STORMS, FRANCE, GERMANY AND SPAIN EARTHQUAKE, NEW ZEALAND STORMS (MAY), UNITED STATES STORMS (APRIL), UNITED STATES STORMS & FLOODS, AUSTRALIA STORMS & MUDSLIDES, AUSTRALIA OIL SPILL, GULF OF MEXICO $8,000,000,000 $2,900,000,000 $2,700,000,000 $2,000,000,000 $1,600,000,000 $1,020,000,000 $1,010,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Most Costly Insurance Claims - 2010 (SwissRe as cited in Griffiths, 2010:57)