Forcasting Methods for International Enrollment Management- ELS Language Centers and Ohio Dominican University
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Forcasting Methods for International Enrollment Management- ELS Language Centers and Ohio Dominican University
- 1. Daniel J. Stone Founding Director of Center Operations ELS Language Centers On the campus of ODU 2010-2012
- 2. Item to be forecasted: Enrollment Relationship between value and cost: Historical Data Available: None at local level Time allowed to prepare the forecast: Six weeks
- 3. Naïve Forecasting • Causal Forecasting •
- 4. Manages hiring needs • Enrollment determines teaching and administrative hours are available. •
- 5. 120 hours- 1 • 80 hours- .67 • 60 hours- .5 •
- 6. =IF(Total Full Time Enrollment Count<41,( Total Full Time Enrollment Count multiplied by 7.76+155.2),( Total Full Time Enrollment Count multiplied by 7.76+164.9))/(Number of days of instruction per session which is 20). •
- 8. Unused hours are rolled over to the following sessions Banked hours get used when the schedule can't be kept within the financial standards.
- 10. Keeps tracking and forecasting in order. Five possible statuses of incoming students. Five possible statuses of outgoing students. Staffing responds to enrollment.
- 11. Return to home country/Arrive from home country Transfer to another school/from another school Start/Finish temporary absence Start/Finish vacation Start/Finish medical leave
- 13. Jury and Executive opinion- 45 students at end of first year Spring 2011- 65 students July 2011- 140 students Fall 2011- Majority of the classes had to be held at the LEAD building. Winter Break 2011- Entire enrollment was housed at LEAD.
- 14. 80% of FTE was Muslim in 2011 Student Visa violations Option plan was introduced in 2012 Quantitative forecasting was employed to allow senior teachers vacation during Ramadan.
- 15. ELS forecasting was used by ODU top management for the forecasting of upcoming fiscal schedules. ELS generated $15-20K a month, $250,000 annually. ELS forecasting was used to support sustainability for the joint venture in 2011.
- 16. References ELS Educational Services, Inc. (2012). About ELS. Retrieved from ELS Language Centers official website: http://www.els.edu/en/AboutELS
Editor's Notes
- ELS valued what ODU had to offer because it fit perfectly since ELS would be operating by using the least expensive method while achieving desire results
- naive forecasting was employed that first year since the future trends of enrollment could not be explained at ELS/Columbus until more data (time) was gained.
- Ensures that the organization remains profitable by managing a LC's hiring needsBy taking the item to be forecasted, enrollment, teacher's work schedules, classroom space, textbooks, and other inventory are allocated based on the number of students enrolled at the LC. the more students enrolled at a LC, the more teaching and administrative hours are available.
- Ensures that the organization remains profitable by managing a LC's hiring needsBy taking the item to be forecasted, enrollment, teacher's work schedules, classroom space, textbooks, and other inventory are allocated based on the number of students enrolled at the LC. the more students enrolled at a LC, the more teaching and administrative hours are available.
- For example, in any given session, the following events can take place: A student will depart and return to their home country, a student will transfer to another school, a student will return to their home country with the intention to come back to ELS/Columbus school within the next five months (or have to get a new immigration document thru their nearest US Embassy), a student will take the next session off and stay in the US to apply at other universities or take prep exams for entrance into another university, or a student will take the next session off due to a medical condition such as pregnancy. Then there are the students that are coming to ELS/Columbus school for classes and will have to the following events take place: new incoming for the first time, transferring from another school to ELS/Columbus school, returning to ELS/Columbus school after being out of the country temporarily, returning to ELS/Columbus school after taking the previous session off, returning to ELS/Columbus school after taking time off due to a medical condition such as pregnancy.
- In May 2010, I came to Columbus for the very first time for the final interview and offer. In meeting some of the "ODU Working Group", members of the ELS senior management explained to the ODU employees that in the first year they should expect approximately 45 ELS students comprising of 15 students staying in the dorms on campus, 15 students staying with host families, and 15 students from the outside.
- These techniques were used to provide information to ODU's top management for the their forecasting of upcoming fiscal schedules due to the significance of the income that ELS was generating on the campus of ODU.