Presentatie Jorij Abraham Masterclass Omnichannelmanagement #KennisEnKunde

© Shopping 2020Jorij Abraham 2
Amsterdam, 26th of May 2015
SHOPPINGTOMORROW HIGHLIGHTS
“The best way to predict your future is to create it” – Abraham Lincoln

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Our Mission:
To foster & promote the interest of
e-commerce in Europe
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National
Associations
25.000+
National
Members
35+
European
Business Partners
Advocacy & Communication
Research & Networking
European Trust Certificate
INTRODUCTION

The “cookie” law is costing Europe € 1.8 billion per year
INTRODUCTION

Agenda
Why Shopping2020?
Highlighs:
• The Market
• The Consumer
• Technology
• Sustainability
• Competition
What’s Next?

Why Shopping2020?
Disintermediation
Google Glasses
3D Printing
Amazonization
Changing consumer
WHY SHOPPING2020?

The central research question of Shopping2020
How will the consumer shop in
2020 and what actions should be
taken on a national, branch and
company level upon that
B2C-operating companies can
successfully respond to this, both
nationally and internationally?
WHY SHOPPING2020?

A different research approach was chosen than normally. The business,
science & political communities were invited to create their own vision
Customer
Journey
Key
Themes
Future
Trends
Identifying expert groups, &
substantiating trends and
their impact
All trends are combined
with concrete actions and
recommendations
Determining
research questions,
expert groups and
desk research
Two research studies among
444 experts and 12,000
consumers
Expert groups define actions
based on weighted trends
Desk research
(March 1 – June 1)
Expert Trend Analysis
(June 13 - Nov. 15)
Wisdom of the Crowds
(Oct. 15 – Nov. 25)
Action Plans
(Nov. 1 - Dec. 15)
Synthesis
(Dec. 15 - March 15, ‘14)
WHY SHOPPING2020?

In total, more than 460 experts worked for six months on Shopping2020
WHY SHOPPING2020?

The 460 experts were divided across 19 themes. Each expert group
produced a report of its own. McKinsey supported in writing the synthesis.
Shopper
Behavior
Cross-border (e-
)Commerce
Technological
Future Touch
Points
Ecological Political / Legal
Orientation Selection
Transaction Delivery
Business
Models
Omni-channel
Organization
Security & Fraud
The New Shopping
Street
Smarter
shopping
Supply Chain
Future Trends
Customer Journey Key Themes
Travel
Action Plan
Finance
Action Plan
Retail Action
Plan
…
Action Plan
Action Plan
Shopping2020
Customer Care
Customer
Data Value
Management
Online Business …
Shopping2020
Vision
WHY SHOPPING2020?

The program organization of Shopping2020
Founding Partners: Scientific Partners:Knowledge Partners:
Program mgt: Jorij Abraham
Mar/Com: Inge Demoed
Research: Eveline Poerink
Congress: Marin Wiellersen
Travel Retail Finance
Expert Group
Shopper
Behavior
Expert Group
Cross-Border (e-
)Commerce
Expert Group
Technological
Expert Group
Future Touch Points
Expert Group
Ecological
Expert Group
Political /
Legal
…… … … …
Expert Group
Online Business
Expert Group
Business
models
Expert Group
Security / Fraud
Expert Group
Omni-channel
Organization
Expert Group
The New Shopping
Street
Expert Group
Supply Chain
……
…
… …
Expert Group
Orientation
Expert Group
Selection
Expert Group
Transaction
Expert Group
Delivery
Expert Group
Customer
Care
Expert Group
Customer Data
Value Management
Arjen Bonsing …… … … … …
Committee of
Recommendation
Program
Board
Future
Trends
Key Themes
Customer
Journey
Support
Team
…Dymfke Kuijpers
…Axel Groothuis
Ed Nijpels (Chairman)
Bernard Wientjes (VNO-NCW)
Arie van Bellen (Director ECP)
Martijn van Dam (MoP PvdA)
Jan Kees de Jager (former
Minister of Finance)
Cor Molenaar (Erasmus University)
Kitty Koelemeijer (Nyenrode University)
Walther Ploos van Amstel (Free University)
Erik Fledderus (Director TNO)
Heleen van Oord (Director DQ&A)
Giovanni Colauto (CEO Bijenkorf)
Harry Bruijniks (CEO Euretco)
Ronald van Zetten (CEO Hema)
Joost Romeijn (CEO Sundio Group)
Paul Nijhof (CEO RFS Holding/Wehkamp)
Annemarie van Gaal (CEO van Gaal & Co.)
Dick Boer (CEO Ahold)
Herna Verhagen (CEO PostNL)
Nick Jue (CEO ING NL)
Michiel Buitelaar (COO Sanoma Media)
Danny van der Eijk (Chairman Achmea)
Harry van Dorenmalen (CEO IBM Europe)
Network Partners:
Smarter
Shopping
Media Partners:
WHY SHOPPING2020?

Several results of Shopping2020
360 visitors
for ShoppingTomorrow
1000+ visitors for ShoppingToday
150+ expert group meetings
25+ external presentations
20,000+ reports downloaded
at Shopping2020.nl
20+ company visits
370+ press publications
2,500+ visitors for ShoppingTogether
5,000+ subscriptions to
the Shopping2020 Newsletter
60+ In-Company
Master Classes
460 involved experts
150+ participating companies
Supported by 16 branch organizations
1,280 Twitter
followers
Research among 12,000 consumers
3,500+ unique visitors p/w
at Shopping2020.nl
WHY SHOPPING2020?

You can download all reports from Shopping2020.nl
WHY SHOPPING2020?

THE KEY FINDINGS
When we imagine the future we only see the present.

We all say things that we may regret later…
THE KEY FINDINGS

Video – There’s no need for 4G…
THE KEY FINDINGS

THE MARKET
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”
Henry Ford

83%
17%
Relation online/offline purchases
Offline verkoop
Online verkoop
35%
14%
13%
9%
7%
6%
4%
4%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1% 1%
Market share per segment Food/Nearfood/Health
Home & Garden
Fashion: apperal
Consumer electronics
Insurances
Travel packages
Fashion: shoes & personal
lifestyle
Flight tickets &
accommodations
Telecom
Media & Entertainment
Toys (excl. Games)
Event tickets
Books
Sport (hardware)
Source: Desk research GfK 2012
* The definition of consumer spending is smaller than applied by Statistics Netherlands and can be found in the full report.
Where are we in 2012: € 65.9 billion in Dutch consumer spending
of which 17% is purchased online in the Netherlands
THE MARKET
Offline
purchases

Online grows explosively over the next seven years in the Netherlands
THE MARKET
Online; 20%
Offline; 80%
2013
Online; 28%
Offline; 72%
2017
Online; 36%
Offline; 64%
2020
Source: GfK Expert Research, September 2013 among 444 Experts

Dutch consumer expects to buy 52% online in 2020
THE MARKET
Source: GfK Consumer Research, November 2013 among 12,000 Consumers
52
36
17
2020 –
consumer
expectation
2020 – expert
expectation
2012
Total amount
EUR million
10 25-28
On average, 25% of the consumers expect to not use
the physical channel at all anymore in 2020
Ø 25
Fashion: clothing 12
Sport (hardware) 14
Home and Garden 15
Daily groceries 17
Fashion: shoes & lifestyle 17
Books 20
Toys 20
Consumer electronics 23
Media and entertainment 24
Telecom 31
Travel packages 36
Insurances 37
Event tickets 40
Flight tickets and accom. 41
Online purchases1
Percentage
For which products/services will the consumer (definitely)
not go to the physical retail anymore?
% respondents (n=11913)
xx
35-40
The consumer expects to make as much as
52% of its purchases online in 2020
1 GfK uses the following definition for online purchases: purchases made through smartphones, tablets, desktops, laptops, in-store devices, other digital devices
(watches, glasses, …) and collecting online purchase at pick-up point
Services
Products

17%
50% 53% 53% 57%
49%
36%
21% 20% 23%
10% 10% 8% 13%
1%
+19%
+31% +23% +23% +14%
+14%
+15%
+26%
+20% +11%
+17% +17%
+14% +9%
+13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
status 2012 groei t/m 2020
36%
81%
76% 76%
71%
63%
51% 47%
40%
34%
27% 27%
22% 22%
14%
THE MARKET
Status 2020Status 2012
The growth of online differs significantly per segment in the Netherlands:
Travel is in the lead, Food grows fast
Online market share per market segment in 2020

65.9 64.6
70.1
73.6
11.0 12.6
19.4
26.9
54.9
52.0 50.7
46.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2017 2020
Total consumer spending (corrected for inflation)
Totale markt
Online
Offline
€billions
+12%
-15%
+145%
Online replaces Offline but total spending only grows marginally
THE MARKET

112
126
122
113
112
110
110
108
108
107
106
105
104
104
90
80 90 100 110 120 130
Totaal
Telecom
Home & Garden
Food/Nearfood/Health
Losse vliegtickets & accommodaties
Tickets voor e venementen
Fashion: schoenen & personal lifestyle
Consumentenelektronica
Pakketreizen
Sport
Fashion:kleding
Speelgoed
Verzekeringen
Boeken
THE MARKET
The growth per market segment differs significantly.
For most of them, growth is limited.
Total
Telecom
Home & Garden
Food/Near food/Health
Flight tickets & accommodations
Event tickets
Fashion: shoes & personal lifestyle
Consumer electronics
Travel packages
Sport (hardware)
Fashion: apparel
Toys (excl. Games)
Insurances
Books
Growth per market segment (online & offline) in relation to 2012

THE CONSUMER
“There is only one boss. The customer. And he can fire everybody in the company from
the chairman on down, simply by spending his money somewhere else...”

In 2020, there will be (almost) no digital illiterates anymore…
Source: Gary Swartz, The Impulse Economy Photo’s: iStock
THE CONSUMER

The consumer of 2020 will be more powerful than ever…
THE CONSUMER
I know
• more about the product….
• the lowest prices…
• where it’s available...
I determine
• what I read, see, hear and do
• where, when and how I make my
purchases
I make
• or break
• your product/service

Slimmed-down alternativeBargain hunter
Source: McKinsey
Example: Canceling
existing travel plans
Applies to:
Leisure spending
Example: Going to a three-star
alternative instead of a luxurious
hotel
Applies to: insurances,
medical/health, communication
Example: Using the Internet to
find the best price
Applies to:
Groceries, Electronics, Toys and
Games, Clothing
A
B
Decreasing volume C
E D
Lowering prices
THE CONSUMER
Consuming less seems to be a trend that will remain after the crisis
Control spending
Replace if necessary
Do-It-Yourself
Example: Staying at
friends o family instead
of a hotel
Applies to:
Home furnishing
Example: Postponing travel plans
Applies to: Home Furnishing,
Electronics, Cars

Consumers look for product information on a wide range of websites,
but more than 50% limit their search to one web shop
THE CONSUMER
17
52
14
17
4+2
31
# of web shops
visited until choice
is made
There are more channels available to find
information and consumers use them all
However, 87% of the consumers limit their
search to a maximum of three web shops
SOURCE: GfK; Expert Report "Cross-Border (e-)Commerce"
Consultation of channels by consumers
Percentage of respondents
# of web shops visited until purchase
Percentage of respondents
41
56
63
78
81
81
81
93

% of research per channel
The consumer starts (en ends) its search increasingly often at one place
SOURCE: McKinsey iConsumer U.S. 2012
12
15
10
18
17
19
19
15
22
16
14
13
23
18
13
Pet supplies
9Clothing
10
Furniture 10
Office supplies 11
Jewelry 12
Footwear 12
Sporting goods 13
Home décor 14
Computer HW & SW 16
Electronics 21
Video games 22
Music 31
Toys 31
DVD/Video 34
Books 42
Amazon-ownedGoogle-owned NOT EXHAUSTIVE
THE CONSUMER

The growth of “Do-It-Yourself”, the sharing economy, is spectacular
SOURCE: online search; Marktplaats.nl; Forrester
969393929491
2007
+1% p.a.
20122011201020092008
Consumer-to-
consumer
(C2C)
turnover
grows 28
times as fast
as total retail
turnover
Total retail turnover the Netherlands
In billions of euros
Many new
C2C
platforms
have
emerged in
recent years
C2C platforms
Year of establishment
20041995 1999 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
THE CONSUMER
1 There is only data available from 2010 and growth 2012-2013 for 2010-2012 a growth of 20% has been assumed (growth online market was 19% p.a. in these years)
2010 2012 20132011
~97,5 ~11 ~14
Turnover Marktplaats.nl1
In billions of euros
28%

Why buy something if you can share almost everything?
THE CONSUMER

One million Germans have shared a car last year
The market grew with 37,4% in 2014 (51% in 2013)
http://www.carsharing.de/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressemitteilung-vom-16032015

The sharing economy can have a huge impact in a very short period of time
Lyft caused a reduction of 30% in taxi turnover in the Bay Area in 2013
THE CONSUMER
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyft www.sanjose.com/2013/10/23/ridesharing_service_lyft_disrupts_silicon_valley/

Pley, 75.000 toysets hired and counting
Allowing consumers to save 75% on the cost of buying Lego
THE CONSUMER

Borrow my doggy, matching dog owners & borrowers
Dog owners pay € 44,99 p/y, borrowers € 9,95 p/y
THE CONSUMER

Rent the Runway, A Netflix Model for Haute Couture
Why buy a dress when you can rent it (for 16% of the costs)?
THE CONSUMER

Marleen cooks, local cooks cook for you
THE CONSUMER

TECHNOLOGY
We're not a retailer competing in Silicon Valley. We're building an Internet technology
company inside the world's largest retailer.” - Wallmart

The Internet has become something gigantic…
Source: www.internetlivestats.com/

Towards 2020, hundreds of new technologies will come our way…
TECHNOLOGY
SOURCE: Gartner Hype Cycle 2014

The pace of innovation and adoption of technology
is increasing exponentially
SOURCE: McKinsey
Nintendo WiiiPadiPhoneNetflixBlackBerryiPod
Number of days until sale of one million items
TECHNOLOGY
28
74
~300+
~360+
~13
~180

We truly believe in omnichannel,
because the customer is
omnichannel.
Adriaan Thierry
E-VP Marketing, Formats &
E-Commerce
Online and offline technology will increasingly merge
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATION

The borders between online and offline are disappearing
Source: Todd Pollak, Industry Director Retail, Google
44% researches
online & buys
online
51% researches
online & buys
instore
17% visits a store
& buys online
32% researches
online, visits a
store & buys
online

Online shopping evokes functional associations
Bricks & mortar more social attributes
http://blog.gfk.com/2014/11/what-next-for-the-shopping-mall-the-blended-shopping-experience/

Online and offline technology will increasingly merge

Mycom uses tablets to sell the ‘long tail’ and offer better service
It allowed the retail chain of 23 stores to acquire Dixons with 128 store
TECHNOLOGY – ONLINE/OFFLINE INTEGRATIE

Online & offline will increasingly merge to provide information
Source: Estimote iBeacon (http://youtu.be/sUIqfjpInxY)

Starbucks is testing iBeacon to recognize customers when they enter
a store, to serve them immediately and to enable them to pay automatically
http://www.onemorething.nl/2014/01/vier-elementen-voor-een-betaalsysteem-van-apple-die-nu-al-in-je-iphone-zitten/

Rebecca Minkoff uses touch screens to facilitate the in store experience
By not only showing off new products but also making the dressing room a positive experience

Online & offline will increasingly merge…for purchases
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUD57MpHAE8

Bloomingdale offered a 3D body scanner in 70 stores for the perfect fit
The scanner failed. Women found it to confronting and jeans were offered only in 15 sizes
http://www.me-ality.com/fit-solutions

Audi uses digital media to get the showroom in the shopping street
Source: http://www.audi.co.uk/audi-innovation/audi-city.html

Mini Concept Store proves you can create an experience without tech

Holograms will increastingly be part of the in store experience

Holograms even get their own fan base like Hatsune Miku

32%
31%
22%
10%
3% 15%
10%
33%
21%
9%
5%
3%4%
Laptop Desktop Tablet
Smartphone Interactive/Internet television Glasses (e.g. Google Glasses)
Smart watches Other devices
Distribution of online purchase channels in 2020 (%)
Base: all experts who have given their vision on the total market
and have evaluated a specific segment (n= 268)
2013 2020
TECHNOLOGY – MEDIA/BODY INTEGRATION
The tablet and mobile phone displace the laptop/PC
The importance of I-TV and Smartware (watches, glasses) is increasing

In India mobile is so popular traditional web shops are shut down
Myntra draws as much as 80% of its traffic and 70% of sales from its mobile app
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Myntra-to-shut-website-from-May-1/articleshow/46818792.cms

However in the US the desktop / mobile ratio is less favorable
The costs of supporting mobile does not yet delivery direct sales
Source: comScore, 2015 US Digital Future in Focus, March 26 2015

IKEA helps you try furniture before you buy

Everywhere where products are available, the consumer
will make purchases: from the TV, on the street…

Voice control is still a challenge but doubling in usage every year
But we are learning agents to also hear emotions and lip-read
http://www.nu.nl/gadgets/3783453/spraakbesturing-wereld-verovert.html
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2011 2012 2013
# billion of voice commands

We may work with fingernail sized devices…

Media are coming closer to our bodies; we will be online continuously
Source: https://vimeo.com/46304267

In 2020, not every customer will come to the (web) shop…
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
www.hongkiat.com/blog/30-futuristic-phones-we-wish-were-real/

http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential
-organizations-h

Expectation is that in 2020 we will own 6,5 connected devices
Source: Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group, april 2011

The Pyramid of Technology
Technology is moving toward becoming natural
http://www.nextnature.net/2014/08/pyramid-of-technology/

Source: Hapilabs.com
The product is becoming more and more digital
TECHNOLOGY – PRODUCT DIGITIZATION

Shoes coach you how to sport better
Source: Steven van Belleghem

The diaper tells you when it needs to be changed
http://www.nst.com.my/latest/japan-sensor-will-let-diaper-say-baby-needs-changing-1.480875

Create your own chair & work healthy

3D scanning & printing is changing the entire production chain
Source: http://www.3ders.org/articles/20120620-tool-less-production-of-moulds-using-3d-printing-technology.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPvxShlrm58&list=PLUWBnRobGU6gMcaXFRKwYa_F_OKILjA4L
TECHNOLOGY – 3D PRINTING

3D Printing can have an impact of $ 550 billion worldwide
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/manufacturing/3-d_printing_takes_shape?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-mck-oth-1402
http://www.explainingthefuture.com/3dprinting.html
Less (local)
stock
Production of lighter&
‘impossible’ products
Quicker design &
production process
Mass one-on-one
production

Even traditional retail chains like Hema have started offering 3D printing
While sales is still minimal, this was also the case for photo printing. Now Hema market leader.

Appie, from shopping list to primary online ordering tool
TECHNOLOGY – BIG DATA
Albert Heijn prefills 80 to 90% of its mobile app shopping list for its customers
Bron: www.emerce.nl/nieuws/ahnl-maakt-zich-reeks-online-vernieuwingen

Privacy seems to be an offline issue …
Pragmatists
Willing to provide their personal data to
companies in return fro free services or other
benefits
Fundamentalists
Do not share data with organizations unless
there are mandatory reasons to
do so
The Careless
Do not care who uses their data and
how their data is used
53%
16%
31%
Online customers are willing to provide their data as long as there is a clear benefit
Bron: Expertgroep Analytics & Big Data, Shopping2020

RadioShack is selling its customer data of 67 million customers
RadioShack filled for bankruptcy and is trying to sell its (intellectual) assets of 1740 stores
http://www.sltrib.com/home/2453366-155/radioshack-is-looking-to-sell-customer

SUSTAINABILITY

Vacancy in 2020 is 10%, if the current trend continues
SUSTAINABILITY
The shopping street is changing, the high vacancy rate is becoming an
increasingly larger problem
In the UK, the vacancy rate has already reached
15%
“Big chains won't return to high street
because of rise of online shoppers”
Mary Portas Review
09
5,5
10
6,0
11
6,3
12
7,5
2015
10,0
2020
5,0
2008
+5,9% p.a.
5,3
Vacant points of sale1, %
SOURCE: Locatus, Expert Reports “The New Shopping Street"
1 Extrapolated in 2015 and 2020 on the basis over average annual growth 2008-2012; vacancy is defined as a vacant building that is intended for sale. Buildings that
used to be shops but are now used differently will not be included.

American shopping mall traffic declines with 50% from 2010 to 2013
Due to over offering, a return to down town and rise of online shopping (6%)

Number of parcels
Million
Value per delivery
EUR
Online retail turnover in the Netherlands
Billions of euros
Increasing parcel traffic requires new solutions
11,3
6,5
4,64,13,63,02,51,8
+12% p.a.1
+21% p.a.
77
101
118123123
140
156155 -5% p.a.2
-5% p.a.
202020152012111009082007
575
250
180
+18% p.a.
202020152013
1 Based on growth in accordance with the experts in the GfK Expert Report
2 Decrease of 2007-2012 extrapolated
3 based on approx. 9-10 million households in 2020
SOURCE: GfK Expert Research; Expert Report "Cross-border (e-)Commerce“; parcelbox4u.com; PostNL
ROUGH ESTIMATE
 ~1.5 million parcels delivered per day
 ~60 small parcels per year per household3 in 2020
 35% of current parcel traffic is air traffic at the
moment
X
SUSTAINABILITY

MARKET CONCENTRATION &
CROSS BORDER ECOMMERCE
“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon

Distribution of online retail turnover of the Dutch top 100 retailers
Percentage
While the Dutch e-commerce market grew with 45% in 2010 – 2012
the number of retailers owning 90% shrunk with 9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
64 82 93 67 85 9499 99
▪ 90% of sales is owned by 58 retailers
SOURCE: Twinkle100 retail 2011; Twinkle100 retail 2013
10 10
42 47
2010
100% = 3.1 billion
2012
100% = 4.5 billion
Players Players
Cumulativesales
▪ 90% of sales is owned by 53 retailers
Small Large Small Large
MARKET CONCENTRATION & CROSS BORDER E-COMMERCE

Big is becoming beautifull (again). One Winner Takes All.
Books
Insurance
Fashion
Hotels
Fast Food

The number of European consumers that buy online with foreign players
increases quickly
SOURCE: EC (2013) Consumer Attitudes Towards Cross Border
Trade and Consumer Protection
15
10
7
8
7
+21% p.y.
8
6
444
+19% p.y.
20122011201020092008
Consumers that bought products online outside of their own country in the last 12
Within the
EU
Outside of
the EU
Percentage

Consumers are buying increasingly more cross border.
Larger countries are leading the way.
SOURCE: Civic Consulting (2011); “Consumer market study on the functioning of eCommerce” in EC (2012) Bringing eCommerce benefits to customers
In which countries did you buy products/services online (%, 2011)?
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
U.K.
Total
13
20
48
40
29
20
29
19
21
41
28
34
…
24
…
2
3
4
1
31
4
4
3
1
2
3
2
8
4
3
2
3
3
5
…
5
3
4
8
3
6
4
Italy
4
38
8
7
3
11
4
5
…
3
2
3
6
6
Nether-
lands
2
0
1
1
1
3
2
0
2
0
0
2
3
2
Poland
1
2
2
2
5
4
7
2
4
21
…
3
8
5
Spain
1
1
22
22
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
…
2
2
Sweden
United
KingdomAustria
2
…
1
2
15
4
4
19
15
1
5
2
3
5
Belgium
0
0
…
5
2
4
2
1
2
1
2
15
2
2
Denmark
90
26
32
38
41
…
36
78
43
18
22
32
21
27
GermanyFrance
5
42
5
5
…
9
26
43
11
16
27
9
17
14
Country of
origin
Country where products/services were purchased
Percentage > 10%

COMPETITION
“Start with the customer and work backwards.“ Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon

The global e-commerce market is exploding, especially in Asia
COMPETITION

The American are coming… and so are the Chinese
COMPETITION

The top 10 webshops of Germany
Turnover in millions €
Bron: Statista, http://twinklemagazine.nl/nieuws/2014/09/amazon-tekent-voor-30-procent-omzet-duitse-top-100/index.xml
COMPETITION

Amazon is still leading the way and setting the standard
With selection (the everything store), lowest prices, best convenience & great confidence
COMPETITION

Ebay offers (near-)instant commerce; ordering & delivering in 60 minutes
COMPETITION

Google is migrating from “search” to “find” to “buy” platform
Google is slowly expanding its vertical searches for hotels, flights, goods, insurances
COMPETITION

Alibaba sold for $ 9.3 billion on Singles Day (11th of November)
A rise of 60% compared to 2013
COMPETITION

Will market places rule the world in 2020?
The “everything store strategy” results in conversion ratio’s up to 20%
# of countries active Growth 2013
13 22%
1*
(just bought
US 11Main)
50%
13 45%
The 3rd party strategy is a cash cow; as sales growth their costs remain the same
Market share
2 – 20%
55 – 60%
20 – 30%
* Although Alibaba offers an international site it is not focused on a specifica market
COMPETITION
1 200%25%

SUPPLY CHAIN & DELIVERY

Supply chain and delivery will become increasingly complex
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Specialist
store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store
replenishment
Between
stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession / shop in shop
Private
label
Wholesale
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Specialist
store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store
replenishment
Between
stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Private
label
Home delivery from
online retailer
Home delivery from
small retailer
Wholesale
Online store
replenishment
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Specialist
store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store
replenishment
Between
stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Private
label
Home delivery from
online retailer
Home delivery from
small retailer
Pick up
points
Pick up in
store
From store
to door/pick
in store
Pick up at pick
up point Home delivery from
small retailer
Wholesale
Online store
replenishment
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Specialist
store
Manufacturer
Wholesale Store
replenishment
Between
stores
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Private
label
Home delivery from
online retailer
Home delivery from
small retailer
Pick up
points
Pick up in
store
From store
to door/pick
in store
Pick up at pick
up point Home delivery from
small retailer
Concession Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from
market place DC
C2C
Wholesale
Online store
replenishment
Market
place
E-fullfilment
center (r)etailer(s)
C2C
Brand
direct
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Market
place
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Pick up
points
Mono brand
stores
Specialist
store
Home
E-fullfilment
E-fullfilment
center
product brand(s)
Market place
DC
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Wholesale
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession
Pick up in
store
Store
replenishment
Online store
replenishment
Pick up in
store
Pick up at pick up point
Online store
replenishment
Home delivery from
online retailer
Direct delivery from
product brand
From store
to door/pick
in store
From store to
door/pick in store
Between
stores
Store replenishment
Pick up at pick
up point
Pick up at pick up point Home delivery from
market place DC
Home delivery from
small retailer
Wholesale
Private
label
Brand
direct
(R)Etail /
Reseller
Market
place
3D
printing
Product brand
Eur. DC / Reg. DC
Retail
Distribution
center
Retail chain
stores
Pick up
points
Mono brand
stores
Specialist
store
Home
E-fullfilment
E-fullfilment
center
product brand(s)
Market place
DC
Manufacturer
Manufacturer
Wholesale
Consignment/VMI
Cross dock
Concession
Pick up in
store
Store
replenishment
Online store
replenishment
Pick up in
store
Online store
replenishment
Home delivery from
online retailer
Direct delivery from
product brand
From store
to door/pick
in store
From store to
door/pick in store
Between
stores
Store replenishment
Pick up at pick
up point
Print shop
3d printing at home
3d printing at print shop
Home delivery from
market place DC
Home delivery from
small retailer
Wholesale
C2C
Private
label
Source: Shopping2020 Expert Group Purchasing & Supply Chain

The new norm: delivery for free where and when the consumer wants
How do you charge delivery costs now and what is your expectation for the future?
12%
51%
11%
26%
Bezorgkosten worden als apart item doorbelast in de bestelling.
Bezorging wordt geheel gratis aangeboden. De bezorgkosten zijn versleuteld in de
verkoopprijs van het product.
Een deel van de bezorgkosten wordt in rekening gebracht, een deel versleuteld in de
verkoopprijs van het product.
Bezorgkosten worden als apart item doorbelast, tenzij een minimum orderbedrag wordt
behaald waarna de bezorgkosten vervallen
21%
22%
11%
46%2014
(n= 123)
(n= 113)
2020
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014 Vraag: Hoe verrekent uw bedrijf momenteel de bezorgkosten en hoe verwacht u dat dit in 2020 gebeurt? ((excl. Do not know)

Amazon and other giants set the standard with next & same day delivery

Inventory management & transparancy and shorter delivery times
towards consumers will have the biggest impact on the supply chain
Basis: alle respondenten uit bedrijven met online en/of
offline winkels (n= 164)
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014. Question: to what extent is your business impacted by the following developments.
17%
37%
41%
33%
14%
13%
26%
26%
31%
20%
26%
24%
23%
22%
27%
44%
13%
10%
15%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Alle voorraad beschikbaar en transparant voor alle kanalen
(online en offline)
Off shore productie kosten stijgen
Off shore productie leadtimes belemmeren flexibiliteit
Geen standaardisatie in supply chains waardoor track &
trace moeilijk is
Levertijden naar online klanten moet steeds korter
Geen invloed Enigszins invloed Redelijk wat invloed Veel invloed

Retailers will prefer to work with logistical intermediairies offering
all possible delivery models
Basis: alle respondenten uit bedrijven met online
winkels die fysieke producten verkopen (n= 128)
20%
10%
15%
19%
17%
11%
26%
25%
21%
20%
37%
33%
15%
12%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Fulfilment netwerken van retailplatformen met eigen
vervoersoplossingen
Samenwerken met logistieke bemiddelaars die in opdracht
van consumenten het vervoer regelen met koeriers
Samenwerken met logistieke bemiddelaars die iedereen
(consumenten, taxi`s, koeriers) kunnen inschakelen om het
vervoer af te handelen voor de ontvanger
Zeer onwaarschijnlijk Onwaarschijnlijk Neutraal Waarschijnlijk Zeer waarschijnlijk
Source: Dutch GfK Shopping2020 Expert Study Nov. 2014. Question: What is the (un)likelyhood your company will work with the following delivery models in 2020 (excl. Do not know)

DHL is investing significantly in pick-up stations
In Germany already 2.750 pick-up stations have been installed by DHL

Deliver is becoming ubiquitos
Thuisbezorgd.nl already delivers 1 million orders each month. Volvo offers car delivery.

Imagine global orchestrators will dominate the market
Global
markets
Markets
merely local
Dominant orchestrator / convergence of roles
Fragmented supply chain
Bolhalla
Local heroes
Amazonization
Global network economy
Scenarios 2020: Scenario planning results

1 hour
delivery
standard
Delivery
times long
3D printing explodes
3D Printing remains niche
Printing at producer
Long tail /
Make-To-Order at producer
Print in store/at home
Long tail / Assemble in store
Imagine 3D printing and 1 hour delivery become the new standard

Imagine 1 hour delivery in a world with very few stores
1 hour
delivery
standard
Delivery
times long
Number of stores decreases significantly
Number of stores stabilizes
Drop shipments
Showrooms full of experience
City hubs
Pick (up) in store

WHAT’S NEXT?
“It’s not the crisis, it’s not the web, it’s the consumer stupid.” Ed Peerenbolte

In the next 7 years consumers will…
52
36
17
2020 – consumer
expectation
2020 – expert
opinion
2012
Buy up to 50%+ online
10
25-28
35-40
Market in billion €xx
Will share more products
Buy instantly & less in the (web)shop Buy more from international marketplaces
THE KEY FINDINGS

Will Europe be following Austria’s footsteps?
85% of the e-commerce turnover in
Austria is bought from (r)etailers of which
the head office is in another country.
WHAT'S NEXT

What can we learn from the Scary Five?
Ultimate User Focus
New Business Models Speed!!!
WHAT'S NEXT
Think Big! Go X-Border

Shopping2020 transformed from research to permanent program
WHAT'S NEXT

In 2015 Shopping2020 is transforming from program to platform
How can we solve a specific challenge in order to prepare ourselves fro the future?
Common vision
(2013)
Conversion attribution
Creating
social
awareness
The Last Mile
Shared Roadmap
(2014)
2017
2018
2019
WHAT'S NEXT

Are you a retail, finance or travel organization? Join us in 2015!
Just sent us an email.
RSVP info@shoppingtomorrow.nl

Questions? Want to participate? Please contact me!
Jorij Abraham
Director Research & Advice
E: JorijAbraham@Ecommerce-Europe.eu
M: +31 6 52 84 00 39

Presentatie Jorij Abraham Masterclass Omnichannelmanagement #KennisEnKunde

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