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Date: August 19, 2010
                                                                                     Canadian Composite Index of Leading Indicators
Canadian Leading Indicators, July 2010 Results                                       Month-Over-Month Per Cent Change
                                                                                       2.0%
Source: Statistics Canada
                                                                                       1.5%
Link to Release:                                                                       1.0%
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100819/dq100819c-eng.htm                      0.5%
Summary: The Canadian Composite Index of Leading Indicators advanced                   0.0%
                                                                                      -0.5%
0.4 per cent in July. While positive, the monthly growth rate slowed
                                                                                      -1.0%
considerably from the 0.7 percent increase recorded in June. Growth in the
                                                                                      -1.5%
manufacturing components of the index remained strong as new orders for
                                                                                      -2.0%
durables rose 2.2 per cent for the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
However, the housing index fell 4.1 per cent on declines of both starts and
sales. The decline in home purchases was likely linked to a 0.6 per cent drop        Source: Statistics Canada

in furniture and appliance sales.
                                                                                     Leading Indicator                                Month/Month % Change
Analysis: The Composite Index of Leading Indicators can be used to estimate          Housing index (1992=100)                                -4.1%
monthly GDP results several months ahead of their actual release. July’s             Business and personal services employment ('000)         0.3%
report suggests that the economy may have grown at a slower pace compared            S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000)                   0.1%
to monthly growth rates experienced earlier in the year, which is in line with the
                                                                                     Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992)                      0.3%
                                                                                     US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100)         0.4%
Bank of Canada’s recent downgrade of its expectations for Canadian
                                                                                     Average workweek (hours)                                 0.0%
economic growth. Increased borrowing costs and more stringent lending
                                                                                     New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992)                  2.2%
guidelines for insured mortgages led to a slower pace of sales in the second         Shipments/inventories of finished goods                 -0.6%
quarter. While strong home sales and related economic activity played a key          Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992)        -0.6%
role in the initial recovery from recession, the drivers of growth over the longer   Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992)            -0.6%
term will be more diverse with a greater contribution from goods production.         Composite Index                                          0.4%
                                                                                     Source: Statistics Canada


                                                                                     Written By:
                                                                                     Jason Mercer
                                                                                     TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
                                                                                     jmercer@trebnet.com

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Canadian leading indicators july2010 1

  • 1. Date: August 19, 2010 Canadian Composite Index of Leading Indicators Canadian Leading Indicators, July 2010 Results Month-Over-Month Per Cent Change 2.0% Source: Statistics Canada 1.5% Link to Release: 1.0% http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/100819/dq100819c-eng.htm 0.5% Summary: The Canadian Composite Index of Leading Indicators advanced 0.0% -0.5% 0.4 per cent in July. While positive, the monthly growth rate slowed -1.0% considerably from the 0.7 percent increase recorded in June. Growth in the -1.5% manufacturing components of the index remained strong as new orders for -2.0% durables rose 2.2 per cent for the sixth consecutive monthly increase. However, the housing index fell 4.1 per cent on declines of both starts and sales. The decline in home purchases was likely linked to a 0.6 per cent drop Source: Statistics Canada in furniture and appliance sales. Leading Indicator Month/Month % Change Analysis: The Composite Index of Leading Indicators can be used to estimate Housing index (1992=100) -4.1% monthly GDP results several months ahead of their actual release. July’s Business and personal services employment ('000) 0.3% report suggests that the economy may have grown at a slower pace compared S&P/TSX stock price index (1975=1,000) 0.1% to monthly growth rates experienced earlier in the year, which is in line with the Money supply, M1 ($ millions, 1992) 0.3% US Conference Board leading indicator (1992=100) 0.4% Bank of Canada’s recent downgrade of its expectations for Canadian Average workweek (hours) 0.0% economic growth. Increased borrowing costs and more stringent lending New orders, durables ($ millions, 1992) 2.2% guidelines for insured mortgages led to a slower pace of sales in the second Shipments/inventories of finished goods -0.6% quarter. While strong home sales and related economic activity played a key Furniture and appliance sales ($ millions, 1992) -0.6% role in the initial recovery from recession, the drivers of growth over the longer Other durable goods sales ($ millions, 1992) -0.6% term will be more diverse with a greater contribution from goods production. Composite Index 0.4% Source: Statistics Canada Written By: Jason Mercer TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis. jmercer@trebnet.com