12. Describe and analyze the benefits and threats to U.S. national
security policy and the impact on our regional allies
Make recommendations if the U.S. should remain committed to
the treaty and consequences if U.S. withdraws
Developmental Criminology
• A theoretical model that attempts to link life
transitions and developmental processes with
patterns of offending behavior over time
• Notion is that involvement in crime closely
resembles a legitimate career with a beginning,
an ascension, a peak, a decline, and an exit
• Examines persistence and desistance of criminal
behavior (why do people keep committing crime
and why do people stop?)
• Described as “dynamic” rather than static
• Interactive(?)
Example
• Terrie Moffitt’s Dual Pathway Developmental
Theory
• Demonstrates existence of adolescent limited
(AL) offenders and life-course persistent (LCP)
offenders
13. • Both have very different pathways in and out of
crime, start criminal careers at different ages,
both commit different types of crimes, and both
have very different psychological and family
profiles
Key findings from developmental study
of crime
• Most offenders will desist quickly
• Many will desist without any criminal justice system
involvement
• Some, a small percentage, will persist over a long
period of time (these are the career criminals, habitual
or chronic offenders)
– This small percentage (between 6-8%) is responsible for a
large percentage of crime committed over time (the 80/20
rule)
• Wolfgang study – found 6% of the cohort studied committed
more
than 50% of the crime over time
• Orange County, CA – found 8% of young offenders
responsible for
nearly 60% of crime totals over time
The 8% solution: Preventing serious,
14. repeat juvenile crime
• The Orange County, CA Probation Department’s
research staff tracked two groups of first-time
juvenile offenders for three years and found that
a small percentage (8%) of the juveniles were:
– Arrested repeatedly (a minimum of 4 times within a
3-year period) (These are PERSISTERS)
– Responsible for 55% of arrests
– Could be identified reliably at first contact with the
juvenile justice system
– What characteristics do you think these kids had
compared to the 92% that were DESISTERS?
8% solution
• These 8% enter system with complex set of problems or
RISK FACTORS which were identified as:
– Involvement in crime at an early age
– A multi-problem profile including:
• Significant family problems (abuse, neglect, criminal family
members,
lack of supervision and control)
• Problems at school
• Drug and alcohol abuse
• Behaviors such as gang involvement, running away and
stealing
– Many of these features make desistance more challenging
15. (web
of problems)
– Given these findings, if you were a judge . . .
– What would you do with the 92% that would desist quickly?
– What about the 8% to make desistance happen quickly?
8% Intervention Program
• Created the “8% Early Intervention Program” to serve first-
time
offenders who were no older than 15.5 and who exhibited at
least
three of the four risk factors in the multi-problem profile
• Goals included:
– Increase structure, supervision, and support for families
– Make kids accountable
– Make school more important
– Promote prosocial values, behaviors and relationships
– Develop new interventions in the community
– Bottom line: Identify the “persisters” and help them at an
early age
– Young Juvenile Offender project here in Virginia (Functional
Family
Therapy, intensive home-based therapy)
– Fast Track Project (page 328 of textbook)
How does desistance happen?
• Two theories of desistance
16. – Sommer
– Shover
• How do you think desistance happens?
Stages of desistance – Sommer
(gradual process)
• Stage 1 – Catalysts for change, making decision to
stop offending
– Socially disjunctive experiences - hitting rock bottom,
tiredness, illness, fear of death, aging, perception of
risk/certainty of punishment increases
– Delayed deterrence - increasing severity of
punishment with multiple charges (3 strikes);
increasing fear of punishment; harder to do time
– Assessment – reappraisal of life and goals, psychic
change, role of religion?
– Decision – Decision to quit and/or initial attempts at
desistance; usually a conscious decision to stop
Stages (continued)
• Stage 2 – Discontinuance
– Public announcement of decision to end criminal
participation, claim to a new
social identity (beginning of certification process)
17. • Stage 3 – Maintenance
– Ability to successfully renegotiate identity, support of
significant others,
integration into new social networks, ties to conventional roles,
stabilization of
new social identity
– THIS IS THE CRITICAL STAGE
– Likely to be episodic with occasional relapses interspersed
with longer periods
of good behavior
– Typically a slowing down process, deceleration (fewer
criminal events)
– Involves a successful certification process (pronouncement by
others that you
have moved from “offender” to “law-abiding citizen”
– If you were an offender going through this process, what
factors do you think
might help you be successful?
Factors that impact success at Stage 3
• Access to legitimate opportunities, employment opportunities
• Social support (family, friends, neighbors, programs like
OAR)
• Ability to be involved in legitimate activities
• Ability to shun criminal world (gangs) (Move away?)
• Formal treatment programs that provide ties to people (AA
and
18. sponsors; drug treatment courts)
• Success of certification process
– Appear in legitimate locations; importance of family;
“appearing”
normal (remove tattoos, piercings); having an address and
phone
number
• Reduce negative stigma of probation and parole supervision
(A
CORRECTIONAL PARADOX)
• Prison-based self-improvement programs
Shover’s Model of Exiting
• A five-pronged process rather than a three-point
stage
– Aging Process
– Orientational Change (new perspective of self,
growing awareness of time, changing aspirations and
goals, growing sense of tiredness)
– Interpersonal Change (ties to another person, ties to a
line of activity)
– Modified Calculus (risks now outweigh the reward –
rewards of crime now seen as minimal)
– Reduction in Criminal Behavior
19. Laub and Samson study “Shared
Beginnings and Divergent Lives”
• Main finding: Found support for Shover’s exiting process.
Three main determinants of a “knifing off” of criminal
activity included:
– Joining the military
– Getting married
– Finding legitimate employment
– Religion also played a role (although minor)
– Other findings:
• Did not observe a process but a quick change for some
• Desistance did not seem to depend on perceived risk of legal
punishment
• Conditions necessary for exiting life of crime are largely
outside the
correctional system’s control
• Argues that the CJS does little to make desistance happen –
may
actually make persistence in crime more likely – HOW?
• What policy implications does this approach have if we want
to make
desistance happen sooner rather than later?
1.
Drawing on the readings for this week, please write a 2–3-page
essay in response to the following:
Many criminologists accept the notion that there are identifiable
"causes of crime" YET our current criminal justice system is
20. largely based on the principles of the classical school, including
the notions of "free will" and "rational thought". In fact, we
justify our punishments on these very principles - for example,
we can mete out a sentence of 25 years for the commission of a
felony because the felon "made the choice" to commit the
crime. You've all heard the saying "if you do the crime, then
you need to do the time". If that felon committed the crime
because of a mental illness, drug abuse, or a history of abuse,
we have a harder time justifying the long sentence of 25 years.
So, my question to all of you is this: How can the current
criminal justice system be effective when it is based on faulty
assumptions about human behavior? For instance, if crime is
"caused" rather than being the product of free will, rational
thought, and logical choice, then how can our system be
effective in changing behavior? How do we overcome this
dilemma in order to make our system of criminal justice more
effective without compromising the impact of the threat of
punishment? Is rehabilitation or some other philosophical
orientation more effective in terms of guiding our response to
crime?
2.
Read the powerpoint and make sure you understand the concepts
behind "developmental criminology" . You should understand
terms like persistence (a continuance of criminal behavior
across a period of time), desistance (stopping of criminal
behavior), pathways to crime, and what factors make it more
likely to start and stop offending. This is a fascinating area of
research! Then, read "The 8% solution" and understand the
implications of its findings. Think of it this way - let's say you
have 100 first-time young offenders in front of you. The 8%
study found that we could reliably identify which 8 of those 100
would go on to commit more serious crime and end up in the
system as our habitual, serious offenders. What this means is
21. that 92 of those young people could be released into the
community with NO criminal justice intervention and more
likely than not, NEVER offend again. So, instead of putting
resources into all of the individuals that come into court for
sanctioning and services, the 8% solution would argue that we
should put resources into only the 8% that are the most likely to
offend. And let the other 92% go on with the business of their
lives, knowing they will likely not offend again, or if they do,
in a very non-serious way. Think about labeling theory which
argues that attaching a label of "criminal" to young people
actually makes them more likely to offend again and again. So
what is the solution?
write a brief 2-3 page essay addressing the following questions:
If you were a judge, what would you do with the 92% of young
people who are likely to desist quickly? What would you do
with the 8% who are likely to be persisters? And why?
