The document discusses a recent article from Commodity Trading Research about how a rally in the Euro gave commodity bulls some hope. It summarizes recent market news including strong US job growth, OPEC's decision to raise oil output, and the ECB's smaller than expected stimulus package, which caused the Euro to surge against the US dollar. This sudden currency adjustment sent the US dollar and commodity prices like precious metals higher. The document suggests this dollar downturn may continue and presents some ideas for capitalizing on it, such as using inverse dollar ETFs or precious metals ETFs.
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4. Hi, My name is Justin and I‘m with
Commodity Trading Research, today were
reviewing our recently published article…
7. • Friday’s US job report revealed another
month of strong gains. Employers added
211,000 new jobs in November, which
kept the unemployment rate steady at
5%.
8. With this report in mind, it’s a near
certainty the Fed will raise rates in their
December 16th FOMC meeting.
9. • OPEC sent the WTI oil price spiraling
below $40 a barrel when they announced
they’d raise their output ceiling to 31.5
million barrels a day in 2016. Not the
news crude bulls were hoping for.
10. • European Central Bank (ECB) President
Mario Draghishocked the currency
markets last Thursday when he
announced a much smaller than
expected stimulus package for the
Eurozone economy.
11. Traders heavily short the Euro were
forced to cover quickly, sending the Euro
surging 3% against the US Dollar.
12. Traders heavily short the Euro were
forced to cover quickly, sending the Euro
surging 3% against the US Dollar.
13. The sudden currency market adjustment
sent the US Dollar steeply lower late last
week.
Take a look…
14.
15. As you can see, the US Dollar index gave
up an entire month of gains in
Thursday’s wild trading session (green
circle).
16. Thanks to the strong dollar downturn,
precious metals markets ended last week
on a high note. Gold rallied 2.2% Friday,
while silver, platinum, and palladium
tacked on gains of 3.4%, 4.2%, and 6.2%
respectively.
19. It’s essential to remember this month’s
FOMC meeting (on December 16th) will
very likely result in higher interest rates.
Of course, a Fed rate raise in typically
viewed as a bullish situation for the US
Dollar.
20. However, given the severity of last
Thursday’s downturn and the fact it
happened at important long-term
technical resistance (horizontal red line
in chart above),
21. there’s a distinct possibility the Fed’s
rate hike is already priced into the
market. As a result, we could see an
additional Dollar decline in coming
months…
22. What’s more, we may see continued
bullishness in precious metals and other
select commodities in coming weeks.
23. Here are a few ideas for capitalizing on
this development…
24. The Powershares DB US Dollar Bearish
ETF $UDNis an inverse dollar tracking
ETF. In other words, when the US Dollar
falls, $UDN gains value. However, since
$UDN is thinly traded it requires a careful
entry and exit technique.
25. You could also make a simple bet on
higher gold and silver prices through
precious metals focused commodity
ETFs.
26. No matter which ETF you choose, you’ll
need stop loss orders below the recent
swing low to control your trading risk.