M3M 129 E Brochure Noida Expressway, Sector 129, Noida
2013 Colliers Global Office Outlook
1. 2013 OUTLOOK
GLOBAL office
www.colliers.com
2012 | office
The global economy has seen recent headwinds from the smoldering eurozone debt crisis, slowing growth in
China’s economy and the forecasted American fiscal cliff. Yet our overall global view of office real estate is
moderately positive. While many large occupiers have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward the global economy,
others are leasing up much-needed space to accommodate expanding operations. Quality office buildings in
major global cities are seeing consistent demand from both occupiers and investors.
• ●U.S. is showing gradually lowering vacancy rates. Canada’s office market continues to perform well
and is seeing notable development activity in major markets. Office absorption has been largely driven
by Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (ICEE) sectors.
• Mexico and Brazil report slightly higher vacancies, due to a combination of speculative construction and
slackening economic growth. Yet São Paulo still boasts the ultra-low vacancy rate of 3.3%.
• Average Central Business District (CBD) office rents remained broadly unchanged across key EMEA
markets, but this has been a result of limited supply more than increased demand. Business confidence
across Europe is firmly negative, which does not bode well for the next year of activity.
• China’s slowing growth has dampened office demand in some Asian markets. Beijing’s office market
remains healthy, but appeared lackluster when compared to an extremely active 2011.
GLOBAL OFFICE MARKETS SHOW
STABILITY IN THE FACE OF HEADWINDS
GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION RATES /
PRIMe YIELDS: 10 Lowest cities
MARKET
(Ranked by
June 2012)
JUNE
2012
DEC
2011
JUNE
2011
Taipei 2.50 2.60 2.80
Hong Kong 2.67 2.94 3.22
Vienna 3.50 3.50 3.50
Singapore 3.90 4.20 4.30
London - West End 4.00 4.00 4.00
Zurich 4.00 4.10 4.10
Geneva 4.25 4.25 4.00
Beijing 4.31 4.32 5.93
Paris 4.50 4.50 4.50
Munich 4.50 4.50 4.50
Tokyo 4.50 4.50 4.60
GLOBAL OFFICE OCCUPANCY COSTS:
TOP 10 CITIES
MARKET
(Ranked by
June 2012)
JUNE
2012
DEC
2011
JUNE
2011
Hong Kong 166.70 178.34 185.91
London – West End 125.65 120.31 124.50
Tokyo* 106.01 110.17 104.91
Rio de Janeiro 90.40 93.05 85.70
Paris 87.50 87.23 97.73
Moscow 83.58 75.78 64.64
London – City 76.18 75.29 77.97
Perth 75.77 73.85 74.74
Geneva 63.70 65.31 72.83
São Paulo 63.50 63.43 71.42
CBD CAP RATE (%)
CLASS A / NET RENT (USD/SF/YR)
10.25
9.00
9.00
4.90
4.75
4.70
4.00
4.00
3.90
3.50
2.67
2.50
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0
Rio de Janeiro
Mexico City
Buenos Aires
New York, NY - Midtown South Manhattan
Vancouver, BC
New York, NY - Midtown Manhattan
London - West End
Zurich
Singapore
Vienna
Hong Kong
Taipei
Asia Pacific
EMEA
North America
Latin America
Top Three Markets by Region: June 2012 Cap Rate (%)
*Tokyo rents listed are gross rents.
2. p. 2 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Panama City 4,226,862
Singapore 3,896,532
Shanghai 5,480,466
New York, NY -
Downtown Manhattan
Rio de Janeiro 7,661,260
Mexico City 8,481,452
Jakarta 9,228,884
Beijing 9,827,581
Tokyo 11,325,147
São Paulo 14,641,067
MARKET JUNE 2012
5,200,000
6.5%
$22.80
4.7%
$35.80
6.5%
$22.80
4.7%
$35.80
4.75%
$34.53
6%
$21.64
5.5%
$41.92
6.5%
$16.85
6.5%
$13.71
5.6%
$24.71
6.2%
$20.61
6%
$25.63
4.9%
$25.875%
$23.14
7.8%
$11.49
0%
$36.8
$100 or more
$50 to $100
$25 to $50
less than $25
N/A
New York-
Downtown
Victoria
Vancouver
Calgary
Seattle
Boston
New York-
Midtown South
New York-
Midtown
Montreal
Chicago
Denver
San Francisco
Atlanta
Houston
Average Class A
Net Rents and
Cap Rates – June 2012
Top 10 Office Markets with the Most SPACE
Under Construction (Square Feet)
Office demand to remain stable
Office demand to increase
Office demand to decrease
Office Demand Outlook ArrowsGLOBAL 2013 FORECAST:
• Expect only modest improvement in North American office vacancy rates over
the next two years, with the exception of a few strong ICEE markets.
• Central and Eastern Europe are feeling the effects of economic stagnation.
Greater certainty in the eurozone is still some ways away, although a
continued improvement in activity is expected by mid-2013.
• Rents in UK regional markets should remain stable due to the lack of Grade A
space. Most markets will reach a ‘tipping point’ by mid-2013 at which time
further rental growth is expected.
• The outlook for the Beijing office property market, especially in the Class A
sector, should continue to be positive; with investment market in the office
property sector to also remain strong.
> UNITED STATES OFFICE DEMAND DRIVEN BY TECH, ENERGY
Intellectual Capital, Energy and Education (ICEE) markets continue to generate a
disproportionate share of office absorption in the US, and nine of the 10 US
markets with the highest Q2 absorption have strong ICEE industries, led by
Houston, Oklahoma City and Boston. The average vacancy rate was 140 basis
points lower in ICEE-dominated markets.
For the first time in nearly five years, in Q1 2012, the US office vacancy rate
dropped below 15%. The rate continued to decline by 13 basis points to 14.29%
in Q2. New supply is delivered to the market at approximately the same pace as
thetrailing five-quarteraverage. With 38.4 million square feet of new construction
still underway, additions to supply will impede improvement in occupancy or
rental rates over the next four to eight quarters.
United States: 2013 Outlook
CBD office buildings are outperforming the suburbs as companies consolidate
operations into the central core of Metropolitan Service Areas (MSAs), and this
trend will continue in 2013. Large spaces are in stronger demand as a result of
this consolidation. As in 2012, landlords will be able to increase rents for large
space users at lease renewal.
Professional and business service employment accounted for approximately
one-third of the monthly job growth in 2012, averaging 150,000 per month.
However, the fate of the office vacancy rate does not merely depend upon an
increase in office workers; new construction also plays a role in the calculation.
As a result, the 2012 vacancy rate’s drop below 15% is not likely to be bettered
by a 14% vacancy rate in 2013. Look for only modest improvement in office
vacancy rates over the next two years.
> RESOURCES SUPPORTING CANADIAN DEMAND, BOND RATES
DRIVING INVESTMENT Observers expect continued slow and steady
economic performance, with no exceptional wins or losses on the radar for
Canada. The divide between the east and west is firmly entrenched, with the
energy and mining sectors driving stronger results in Alberta, Saskatchewan
and British Columbia. Ontario and Quebec will post more moderate growth, as
the economy in the United States gradually improves, exports gather speed and
the manufacturing sector recovers.
Canada: 2013 Outlook
Economic growth will be impacted by a retraction of government stimulus
spending and weakening consumer activity as household debt curtails retail
sales growth. The fundamentals of all major office markets continue to be very
solid, with the national vacancy rate under 6%. Demand for office space will be
muted in the east, while resource-oriented western markets continue to be hot.
As a result, 2012 should end with a steady performance, with a further pick-up in
Rents are US$/SF/YR.
3. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
p. 3 | Colliers International
9%
$31.20
Mexico City
10.25%
$90.40
9%
$34.21
Rio de Janeiro
Buenos Aires
$100 or more
$50 to $100
$25 to $50
less than $25
N/A
Average Class A Net Rents
and Cap Rates – June 2012
São Paolo Skyline
growth commencing in 2013. The investment market will continue to be very active
while bond rates remain low and investors turn to real estate as a safe yield-
producing investment. Key risks on the Canadian radar are the fragile condition of
Europe, the U.S. Fiscal Cliff and slowing growth in resource-hungry emerging
economies.
> MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH DRIVES OFFICE DEMAND AND
CONSTRUCTION Mexico City saw the construction of more than 2.1 million
square feet of office space in the first half of 2012, which has pushed up overall
vacancy rates. 893,405 square feet were absorbed in the first quarter of 2012 and
more than 1.9 million square feet in the second.
This 100% increase in market activity is to some extent due to the addition of
buildings with pre-leased space to the inventory. It is worth noting that even with
increased inventory, average rental rates did not show significant fluctuations and
remained relatively stable.
Mexico: 2013 Outlook
The Mexican economy will continue to advance at a steady pace, with employment
and wages showing slight increases and a GDP growth rate that is expected to
reach 3.7% by the end of 2012, and continue this trajectory in 2013. The recently
elected Institutional Revolutionary Party presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto
will push for some energy and labor reforms, however the initiatives of the new
administration should not significantly shift Mexico’s growth trajectory.
> SÃO PAULO BOASTS LOW VACANCY, ALTHOUGH ABSORPTION HAS
MODERATED Brazil’s dynamic economy of recent years has contributed to a new
global perception of Brazil as a hub for investment and capital. The cities of Rio de
Janeiro and São Paulo have a combined Class A office inventory of more than 26
million square feet and Rio de Janeiro has no room for new buildings in its
downtown. The average vacancy across both cities is 6.8%. Rio de Janeiro’s
vacancy is 10.4% while São Paulo’s is only 3.3%.
Brazil: 2013 Outlook
Despite low vacancy rates, there has been some moderation in office demand. The
average asking lease prices decreased by 0.7% from Q1 to Q2 2012 in São Paulo
and Rio de Janeiro. Net absorption in Q2 was the lowest it has been since the third
quarter of 2009. Therefore, we predict slackening demand and limited supply will
provide only a slight increase in occupancy and rental rates through 2013.
Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
fluctuations in currency exchanges. Rents are US$/SF/YR.
4. p. 4 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Helsinki at dusk
4.5%
$87.50
4.25%
$63.70
Stockholm
Copenhagen
4.5%
$87.50
4.25%
$63.70
5%
$20.56
5%
$26.81
4.5%
$38.81
4.75%
$61.74
4%
$47.04
4%
$125.65
3.5%
$26.11
4.7%
$31.05
Stockholm
Copenhagen
Paris
Berlin
Munich
Geneva
Zurich
London
Vienna
Hamburg
Average Class A Net Rents
and Cap Rates – June 2012
$100 or more
$50 to $100
$25 to $50
less than $25
N/A
across AsiaPac and the Americas. Greater certainty in the eurozone is still some
ways away, although a continued improvement in activity is expected by mid-2013.
> UNITED KINGDOM STILL SEEN AS SAFE ENVIRONMENT FOR REAL
ESTATE INVESTMENT Despite the fact that the UK economy saw a surge in Q3
12, the economy will finish the year on a weaker note. Nevertheless, relative political
and economic stability continues to augment the perception of Britain as a ‘safe
haven’ for direct investment in real estate. As a eurozone outsider, the UK has
benefited, attracting strong capital flows not only from eurozone countries, but also
from North America, Asia, and the Middle East. Prime office yields are stable at
around 4% in London’s West End and between 5% and 5.25% in the City.
London remains the top European office investment market with a 20%+ y/y
increase in sales volume in H1 12. The vacancy rate in Central London was stable
between H2 11 and H2 12 at 6.9%. Several UK markets have seen disappointing
take-up levels so far in 2012, although London’s West End has seen an increase in
pre-leasing activity and rents are still climbing.
United Kingdom: 2013 Outlook
Rents in UK regional markets should remain stable due to the lack of Grade A space.
Speculative construction has been absent from these markets since 2008 and this
trend is projected to continue. Most markets will reach a ‘tipping point’ by mid-2013
at which time further rental growth is expected. Rents in Central London will also
come under upward pressure with the West End market set to see new historical
highs for prime rents.
> SUSTAINED DEMAND IN GERMAN OFFICE MARKET After a mild
contraction in Q4 11, the German economy bounced back with GDP growth in Q1 12
reaching 0.5% q/q. Since then the growth rate has tapered off to 0.2% q/q in Q3 12.
The exposure of German banks to the Spanish property market remains a worrying
factor, but export growth is also a worry as world trade has slowed.
Take-up in the six main German office markets stood at approximately 13.9 million
square feet in the first half of 2012, which represents a 9% y/y decline. Nevertheless,
the overall vacancy rate fell from 9.7% in H1 11 to 8.4% in 2012. Demand from
> LOW CONFIDENCE FOR EMEA BUSINESSES, BUT
BRIGHT SPOTS PERSIST The first half of 2012 was
dominated by economic stagnation across Europe. The
eurozone contracted by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 12
and re-entered technical recession in Q3 12 with a 0.1% q/q
contraction. Central and Eastern Europe are feeling the
effects. Positive indicators for H1 12 in Germany and France
have given way to more sobering numbers with
manufacturing and service purchasing manager indices
suggesting a further period of economic uncertainty and
stagnation. Both economies expanded by a modest 0.2% q/q
in Q3 12 and this was not enough to counter balance
contractions in the eurozone periphery
EMEA: 2013 Outlook
Average CBD office rents remain broadly unchanged across
key EMEA markets; in most cases this has been the result of
limited supply, rather than robust demand. A 13% y/y drop in
the volume of investment transactions was recorded across
Europe in the first part of 2012. Despite sagging business
confidence across EMEA, Q3 12 transaction levels saw a
modest rise, although the increase is lagging better results in
Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
fluctuations in currency exchanges Rents are US$/SF/YR.
5. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
p. 5 | Colliers International
London, England
current political instability is also a factor. However, the majority of eastern European
countries are expected to post positive GDP growth in 2012; the regional economy
as a whole is expected to grow by 2.7%. Poland, Russia and Turkey, alongside
dynamic economies such as Latvia, are helping drive growth in the region.
In line with a decline in economic conditions, office space demand contracted by
24% compared to leasing activity in 2011. Almost all markets were below the
demand levels seen in the second half of 2011, with the exceptions of Warsaw,
Prague and Zagreb. Nevertheless, rents have remained stable across the region,
with a notable 10.3% increase recorded in Moscow. The volume of investment
transactions also fell in comparison to the same period of 2011, mainly as a result of
reduced debt finance availability. This has kept transactions focused on the larger,
more liquid Polish and Russian markets.
CEE: 2013 Outlook
We expect the transaction trend focusing investment on larger, more liquid markets
(mentioned above) will continue over the next 12 months. We also expect to see
subdued activity from both demand and supply in the near term, with continued
divergence in activity by geography. Market uncertainty combined with restricted
construction finance availability will continue to constrain new supply. This should
keep vacancy rates at current levels in most markets.
> SOUTHERN EUROPE’S RENTS STILL FALLING; MIDDLE EAST
HAMPERED BY OVERSUPPLY There was further weakening in the headline-
grabbing markets of Southern Europe. Athens saw a 7.1% decrease in asking rents
and Madrid recorded a 2.1% fall. Vienna saw a slight increase in CBD rental levels
in the first half of 2012, while the rents in the Benelux markets recorded no changes.
Geneva saw a marginal fall in rents. A decrease in rents is expected in Swiss
professional services firms has been steady and may explain some of the notable
rental increases; there have been sustained lettings of higher-priced space in
central locations. The two most expensive locations for office investment remain
Hamburg with prime yields of 4.7% and Munich at 4.5%. These low yields are a
result of high demand for a limited amount of new supply. Investors remain focused
on these markets due to continued good turnover figures, but also these market
have a degree of safe haven status as leading markets in what is perceived as the
most stable member of the eurozone.
Germany: 2013 Outlook
Considering the economic environment, the German office leasing market has held
up well and will remain stable in 2013. Underlying leasing demand, together with
current rental contract negotiations, suggest some modest growth in take-up
volumes. Investors will continue to look for opportunities across the German
markets and prices are expected to remain stable.
> FRENCH OFFICE MARKET IN STATE OF EQUILIBRIUM, YET FEARS
REMAIN Against an unsettled economic backdrop, the core sectors of France’s
commercial real estate market have proven resilient. While supply and demand
appear to be in equilibrium, fears of new imbalances are linked to expectations of
further economic deterioration.
Take-up of office space in Île-de-France has held up well and stood at over 10
million square feet in the first half of 2012. This number was down only slightly
year-over-year. Transactions involving small units maintained pace, but leasing
transactions for medium-sized suites are down significantly. The supply of new and
second-generation office space (available within a year) declined by 11% in the past
six months. Rental rates have stabilized in high-quality buildings. However, a
correction in rental values for lower-quality, second-generation space in the future
may develop.
Commercial property commitments in France in the first half of 2012 represented a
year-over-year increase of 18%. Transactional evidence suggests no significant
change in office yields which, on the best properties, range from 4.5 to 5.5% in the
Paris CBD. Paris is also seeing safe haven investment due to its status as an
important international financial node.
France: 2013 Outlook
The trend of shrinking office space availability is expected to be reversed as a
number of new construction projects complete in 2013. Despite increased supply,
the market is expected to remain stable, provided no unforeseen economic setbacks
occur. International investors will continue to track Paris for new opportunities.
> INVESTOR DEMAND KEEPS OFFICE YIELDS LOW IN CORE NORDIC
MARKETS The Nordic growth rates (2013 GDP forecasts range from 1.4% to 2.1%)
are relatively strong when seen against core European markets. AAA credit ratings
for Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden have supported the perception that
Nordic markets are safe destinations for capital.
Office investors have shown great appetite for property in primary locations,
pushing up the yield spread between primary and secondary Nordic markets. The
number of investment transactions has been increasing. Denmark and Sweden in
particular have seen a higher volume of cross-border transactions.
Nordics: 2013 Outlook
A modest increase in investment activity is expected in 2013, particularly
concentrated in primary Nordic markets and from international investors; a shift in
preference among tenants to cost-effective, modern and green office buildings is
also likely. Leasing markets will remain stable.
> CEE SEES LOWER OFFICE DEMAND DESPITE POSITIVE ECONOMY
Although, the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region is showing more economic
growth than Western Europe, the region is vulnerable to Western European
economic performance. This has been very apparent in Hungary and the Czech
Republic whose economies both contracted over the first half of 2012. Both
countries are very dependent on trade with the western European core, although
6. p. 6 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Buenos Aires USD
Beijing CNY
Stuttgart EUR
São Paulo BRL
Moscow USD
Denver, CO USD
Chicago, IL USD
Calgary, AB CAD
Bogotá USD
Jakarta IDR
MARKET
QUOTED
CURRENCY
UNITS OF
MEASUREMENT
TIME
PERIOD
JUNE
2012
DEC
2011 CHANGE
SM
SM
SF
SF
SF
SM
SM
SM
SM
SM
Month
Month
Year
Year
Year
Month
Month
Month
Month
Month
242,192.00
33.00
42.62
16.85
13.71
75.00
19.00
114.50
30.70
336.11
174,249.00
27.40
36.00
14.50
12.19
68.00
17.50
106.00
28.60
313.69
39.0%
20.4%
18.4%
16.2%
12.5%
10.3%
8.6%
8.0%
7.3%
7.1%
Major Office Markets with the Largest Period Change in Rent
2.67%
$166.70
7.5%
$58.94
7.32%
$34.427.06%
$47.35
6.9%
$60.85
4.32%
$58.94
3.9%
$63.35
2.5%
$27.64
7.5%
$36.13
Canberra
Sydney
Brisbane
Adelaide
Melbourne
Beijing
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Singapore
Taipei
$100 or more
$50 to $100
$25 to $50
less than $25
Market with gross-rent data only Canberra
Sydney
Brisbane
Adelaide
4.5%
$106.01
Average Class A Net Rents
and Cap Rates – June 2012
“ The unresolved European
debt crisis and slowing
economic growth in China
have eroded Hong Kong’s
economic growth prospects.
Inflationary pressure
from the third round of
US quantitative easing is
expected to push up real
estate values, where the
local currency is pegged to
the US dollar.”
markets, due to poor demand levels; the strength of the local currency is impacting
business activity substantially. Switzerland and Austria also saw significant declines
in office investment activity in comparison to the first half of 2011.
Southern Europe: 2013 Outlook
Further falls in rental levels are expected. With low occupational demand and
creeping investment volumes, prime office yields will continue to soften further in
Athens, Milan, Madrid and Rome. The largest increase in 2012 was recorded in
Lisbon, at 50 basis points.
Across the Middle East, political and economic uncertainty continues to translate
into poor performance in local real estate markets, with low demand from both
tenants and investors. A further weakening of the Cairo market was noticeable, as
well as major declines in rents in the main office markets of UAE and Saudi Arabia,
where significant oversupply was the cause.
> OFFICE DEMAND FROM FINANCIAL AND MAINLAND COMPANIES IN
HONG KONG The unresolved European debt crisis and slowing economic growth
in China have eroded Hong Kong’s economic growth prospects. Inflationary pressure
from the third round of US quantitative easing is expected to push up real estate
values, where the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.
Office rents showed signs of stabilization in 3Q 2012 due largely to the solid demand
from a range of medium-sized financial companies and the support of mainland
enterprises. Leasing demand was soft in the city’s Class A office market. Overall net
absorption fell 26% quarter-over-quarter to 386,000 square feet in 3Q 2012.
Hong Kong: 2013 Outlook
Due to the limited supply of Class A office buildings for lease, the vacancy rate on
Hong Kong Island will remain low in 2013, with the exception of Central/ Admiralty,
where falling demand for top-tier office premises is anticipated to cause the vacancy
rate to edge up further. Overall, the average vacancy rate will settle around its
historical average of 5% by the end of 2012.
With the external uncertainties and tightening of mortgage lending criteria,
investment sentiment in the office market weakened during 3Q 2012. The average
yield of Hong Kong Class A offices compressed 20 basis points to 3.1% in July 2012.
The decrease in Class A office yield reflected the strong demand for Class A offices
by investors.
> NEW OFFICE CONSTRUCTION AND PRELEASING ACTIVITY IN
SHANGHAI The average rental rate for Class A office space in Shanghai continues
to grow. Citywide, vacancy increased to 9.5% due to the launch of five new projects
in the downtown area, including the high-profile L’Avenue and SOHO Century
Avenue. A number of high-profile leases were signed, including Adidas’ 187,293
square feet in Shanghai International Commerce Center for their new China
headquarters and Danone Group’s securing of 76,435 square feet at Kerry Parkside.
Average gross yields in Shanghai’s Class A office sector declined to 5.8% during the
third quarter, a decrease of 10 basis points from the previous quarter.
Shanghai: 2013 Outlook
The limited number of recent land transactions indicate that developers still remain
cautious about making land acquisitions for further commercial development.
> BEIJING OFFICE MARKET SEES NARROWING AVAILABILITY Despite
weak economic performance in many developed economies, Beijing, as the capital
of China, will continue to attract overseas and domestic enterprises as they establish
or expand their offices. Beijing’s overall office property market was stable in the first
half of 2012. The disequilibrium between supply and demand remained unchanged
as new completion was limited, leading to a continued narrowing availability across
the board.
Rental rate changes are calculated using period US$ exchange rates and may reflect
fluctuations in currency exchanges. Rents are US$/SF/YR.
* - Change in rent as measured in local currency, unit of measurement and time period.
7. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
p. 7 | Colliers International
Although demand from both multinationals and domestic enterprises was firm, the
leasing market in the first half of 2012 appeared lackluster when compared to the
extremely active year of 2011. The average net effective rent continued to climb, but
the growth momentum softened, associated with declining transaction volume. The
office property investment market was also active, evidenced by several transactions
concluded during the review period.
Beijing: 2013 Outlook
The outlook for the Beijing office property market, especially in the Class A sector,
should continue to be positive. However, negotiations between landlords and
tenants could become more elastic in the near term. The investment market in the
office property sector of Beijing will remain active.
> TOKYO OFFICE USERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OVERSUPPLY The
Tokyo Class A office market continues to experience frequent tenant relocations as
occupiers take advantage of an oversupply by upgrading the quality of their office
space while reducing overall rents. Office development has been concentrated in
three central wards of Tokyo, with 2012 marking the second-biggest year for new
office construction since 2003.
Office properties in Tokyo’s central business districts and major cities are enjoying
the greatest interest from institutional investors, with more than 80% of investment
capital focused in the central six wards of Tokyo, according to data from RCA. More
than half of the total transaction volume in Japan is made up of office property sales.
Tokyo ranked fourth globally in volume of office property transactions valued over
$10 million per asset in the past 12 months.
Tokyo: 2013 Outlook
Higher vacancy rates have accompanied the new supply from 2012, however
vacancy should begin to decline again soon. Class A rents are stabilizing, with some
properties showing rental rate increases. Although average rents will decline
slightly through the end of 2012, we project they will begin to increase moderately
in late 2013.
> SEOUL SEES DROPPING VACANCY DESPITE NEW OFFICE
CONSTRUCTION A number of Class A office buildings have come online in Seoul
in the last year in both the Central Business District (CBD) and Yeouido Business
District (YBD) . This construction came on the heels of the successful launch of the
International Finance Centre(IFC) in the Yeouido Business District’s (YBD) first
Class A office building in 2011.
Yokohama Skyline
Over 1.7 million square feet of new office space entered Seoul’s office market in the
first half of 2012, with the completion of the K Twin Tower in the Central Business
District and three buildings in the Gangnam Business District (GBD). New supply is
expected to continue to edge up in the CBD and YBD.
The vacancy rate for offices in Seoul fell 0.76% in the first half of 2012 to 6.97%.
There was almost no vacancy in the area’s Class A+ office buildings, which had an
average vacancy rate of 0.11%. The average rent for an office in Seoul in the first
half of 2012 increased by 4.46% over the previous period. The net absorption in
Seoul’s office market during 2Q 2012 increased remarkably from the previous
quarter to nearly 1.6 million square feet.
Seoul: 2013 Outlook
Low supply, increased rental rates and a slight decrease in vacancy point to
moderate improvement in the Seoul market in 2013. However, new supply will keep
strong gains in rent or occupancy in check.
> SINGAPORE CLASS A CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT RENTS TO
FALL The global economic environment has weighed down Singapore’s office
leasing activity, pushing average Class A gross rents in the CBD down by 5.4%. This
represented a reversal of the rental growth trend that had been steadily gaining
steam since the office market bottomed out in the end of 2009.
Singapore: 2013 Outlook
Lowered office rents will improve Singapore’s competitive edge as a regional hub
for business. Overall CBD office space vacancy rates inched down from 12.8% in
December 2011 to 12.6% in June 2012. There is a threat of an impending supply
overhang. In addition to the steady lineup of new office buildings that will be
completed over the next four years, a substantial amount of secondary space could
be returned to the market upon lease expiration as existing tenants move to new
premises. CBD Class A office rents are expected to continue decline through 2013.
> SLOWING ECONOMY REINS IN INDIAN OFFICE DEMAND India’s
economic growth has slowed, a result of uncertainties in domestic policy, the
cumulative impact of monetary tightening and slackening of external demand.
Rental rates for Class A office space in Mumbai will remain stable across most
submarkets. In Delhi, Class A rents increased by 2% to 7% over the previous quarter
in popular locations such as Connaught Place and Nehru Place, while 4% to 10%
drops were seen in Jasola and Saket.
8. p. 8 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Brisbane, Australia
While construction activities remained moderate in Mumbai in Q2 2012, Dehli saw
fast-paced activity in a newly developed area near Delhi Airport named Aerocity.
Two projects located at Aerocity, Aria Signature Office and IBIS Commercial Tower,
developed by JW Marriot and IBIS Hotel respectively, added approximately 200,000
square feet of Class A space to the market.
India: 2013 Outlook
Going forward, the rental values for Class A office space are expected to remain
stable in almost all Delhi and Mumbai submarkets.
> FOREIGN INVESTORS ACCOUNT FOR HALF OF AUSTRALIAN
PROPERTY PURCHASES The Australian economy continues to show signs of
strength, with GDP growth of 3.7% recorded in the first nine months of 2012. This
relatively strong growth is no doubt a contributor to strong foreign interest in
Australian property, with offshore purchasers now accounting for around a half of
all purchases in 2012.
Although economic growth is strong, the two-speed nature of Australia’s economy
means that some office markets are performing far better than others from a tenant
demand perspective. In particular, office markets in the resource-rich states of
Western Australia and Queensland are showing stronger rental growth than the
larger economies of Victoria and New South Wales. However, investment patterns
are not following leasing demand. Demand for office assets is higher in Sydney and
Melbourne CBDs, even though these cities are both seeing a decline in rents.
Australia: 2013 Outlook
There is a strong outlook for investment in Australian office markets. Although
foreign purchasers are dominating at present, local Australian REITS have now
recapitalized and Australian pension funds have also expressed interest in increasing
allocations to direct property. This means that the demand for prime assets is going
to become more competitive in 2013. However, the outlook for rental growth is more
limited. It is likely we will see some growth in Brisbane and Perth CBD rents, while
Melbourne and Sydney CBD rents remain flat in 2013.
> NEW EARTHQUAKE POLICIES IN NEW ZEALAND HIT CBD OFFICE
The implementation of earthquake-prone buildings policies has had a profound
effect on the New Zealand CBD office market over the last 12 months. The process
of obtaining an engineering evaluation while maintaining insurance has been an
expensive exercise for institutions and private owners. Wellington has been hit the
hardest.
Leasing activity at the top end of the market has remained firm in Wellington as a
result of the growing number of office tenants looking to move away from buildings
perceived to be earthquake-prone, and this has helped keep prime rentals buoyant.
However, the Auckland CBD office market has been the stronger performer of the
two cities. Prime CBD office space remains tight in buildings around the CBD.
New Zealand: 2013 Outlook
The economic climate in New Zealand remains muted over the next few years and
the complexity surrounding the Wellington office market hinders any chance of
seeing sustained rental growth in the next few years. Less fortunate are owners of
the older Class C or even B buildings who face a nasty cocktail of decreasing value
and demand, along with increasing insurance costs. Auckland is more resilient,
supported by job growth prospects and likely economic growth. Landlords of better-
quality buildings in both Auckland and Wellington can anticipate an increase in rental
in the next 12 months.
9. p. 9 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
local measure / currency cbd rents
MARKET COUNTRY unit
quoted
currency
TIME
PERIOD
exchange
rate (USD)
JUNE 30, 2012
AVERAGE
class a
net rent
AVERAGE
class a
gross rent
Average
class a
net rent
Average
class a
Gross
rent
cbd cap
rate
/ prime
yield (%)
asia pacific
Adelaide Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 380.00 485.00 36.13 46.11 7.50
Brisbane Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 620.00 750.00 58.94 71.30 7.50
Canberra Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 362.00 440.00 34.42 41.83 7.32
Melbourne Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 498.00 617.00 47.35 58.66 7.06
Perth Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 797.00 956.00 75.77 90.89 8.00
Sydney Australia SM AUD Year 0.98 640.00 776.00 60.85 73.78 6.90
Beijing China SM CNY Month 6.36 336.11 366.11 58.94 64.20 4.31
Chengdu China SM CNY Month 6.36 145.28 164.33 25.48 28.82 7.60
Hong Kong China SF HKD Month 7.76 107.76 125.14 166.70 193.58 2.67
Shanghai China SM CNY Month 6.36 307.00 261.00 45.77 53.81 4.50
Jakarta Indonesia SM IDR Month 9,385.00 242,192.00 299,588.00 28.76 35.58 8.10
Tokyo Japan SM JPY Year 79.82 91,113.00 106.01 4.50
Auckland New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.25 334.00 466.00 24.86 34.69 8.40
Wellington New Zealand SM NZD Year 1.25 343.00 442.00 25.53 32.90 8.19
Makati City Philippines SM PHP Month 41.82 895.00 23.85 9.00
Singapore Singapore SF SGD Month 1.27 6.68 8.45 63.35 80.13 3.90
Seoul South Korea SM KRW Month 1,141.15 64,575.00 23,896.00 63.06 23.34 6.00
Taipei Taiwan SM TWD Month 29.80 739.00 887.00 27.64 33.17 2.50
Bangkok Thailand SM THB Month 31.55 680.00 725.00 24.02 25.61 8.30
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA)
Tirana Albania SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 14.00
Vienna Austria SM EUR Month 0.79 18.50 26.11 3.50
Antwerp Belgium SM EUR Month 0.79 10.40 14.68 7.00
Brussels Belgium SM EUR Month 0.79 15.00 21.17 6.00
Sofia* Bulgaria SM EUR Month 0.79 9.00 12.70 9.00
Zagreb* Croatia SM EUR Month 0.79 12.50 17.64 9.00
Prague* Czech Republic SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 6.50
Copenhagen Denmark SM DKK Month 5.87 108.30 20.56 5.00
Cairo Egypt SM USD Month 1.00 21.75 24.24 9.00
Tallinn Estonia SM EUR Month 0.79 13.40 18.91 7.50
Bordeaux France SM EUR Month 0.79 13.50 19.05 6.50
Lyon France SM EUR Month 0.79 18.80 26.53 6.00
Marseille France SM EUR Month 0.79 15.90 22.44 6.15
Paris France SM EUR Month 0.79 62.00 87.50 4.50
Berlin Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 19.00 26.81 5.00
Düsseldorf Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 23.00 32.46 5.20
Frankfurt Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 30.00 42.34 5.20
Hamburg Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 22.00 31.05 4.70
Munich Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 27.50 38.81 4.50
Stuttgart Germany SM EUR Month 0.79 19.00 26.81 5.40
Athens* Greece SM EUR Month 0.79 13.00 18.35 7.75
Budapest* Hungary SM EUR Month 0.79 12.50 17.64 7.75
Dublin Ireland SM EUR Month 0.79 20.00 28.23 7.50
Milan Italy SM EUR Month 0.79 40.00 56.45 5.50
Rome Italy SM EUR Month 0.79 29.00 40.93 5.85
Riga Latvia SM EUR Month 0.79 12.00 16.94 8.00
Vilnius Lithuania SM EUR Month 0.79 13.50 19.05 8.50
Amsterdam Netherlands SM EUR Month 0.79 17.80 25.12 6.65
MEASURE
cbd rent
local currency
cbd rent us
dollars/sq ft/yr
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
10. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
p. 10 | Colliers International
Oslo Norway SM NOK Year 5.96 3,250.00 50.65 5.50
Warsaw* Poland SM EUR Month 0.79 22.20 31.33 6.50
Lisbon Portugal SM EUR Month 0.79 15.21 21.47 8.00
Bucharest* Romania SM EUR Month 0.79 15.00 21.17 8.00
Moscow* Russia SM USD Month 1.00 75.00 83.58 9.50
Saint Petersburg Russia SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.78 10.00
Jeddah Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 934.00 23.13
Riyadh Saudi Arabia SM SAR Year 3.75 1,130.00 27.99 10.00
Belgrade* Serbia SM EUR Month 0.79 15.50 21.87 9.00
Bratislava* Slovakia SM EUR Month 0.79 11.00 15.52 7.50
Madrid Spain SM EUR Month 0.79 23.50 33.17 5.90
Stockholm Sweden SM SEK Year 6.92 4,600.00 61.74 4.75
Geneva Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.95 54.17 63.70 4.25
Zurich Switzerland SM CHF Month 0.95 40.00 47.04 4.00
Istanbul Turkey SM USD Month 1.00 28.67 31.95 7.00
Kyiv* Ukraine SM USD Month 1.00 23.00 25.63 12.00
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 30.46 33.95
Dubai United Arab Emirates SM USD Month 1.00 32.90 36.67 10.00
Belfast United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 12.50 19.63 6.25
Birmingham United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.98 6.00
Bristol United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 24.00 37.70 6.25
Edinburgh United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 21.00 32.98 6.00
Glasgow United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 23.00 36.12 6.00
London – City United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 48.50 76.18 5.25
London – West End United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 80.00 125.65 4.00
Manchester United Kingdom SF GBP Year 0.64 22.00 34.55 6.00
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires Argentina SM USD Month 1.00 30.70 35.75 34.21 39.84 9.00
Rio de Janeiro Brazil SM BRL Month 2.01 163.00 186.50 90.40 103.43 10.25
São Paulo Brazil SM BRL Month 2.01 114.50 137.00 63.50 75.98 10.25
Bogotá Colombia SM USD Month 1.00 33.00 36.20 36.78 40.34 8.25
San José Costa Rica SM USD Month 1.00 17.75 19.48 19.78 21.71 10.76
Mexico City Mexico SM USD Month 1.00 28.00 31.00 31.20 34.55 9.00
Panama City Panama SM USD Year 1.00 20.00 24.00 1.86 2.23 9.50
Lima Peru SM USD Month 1.00 20.00 20.60 22.29 22.96 12.50
north AMERICA
Calgary, AB Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 42.62 62.00 41.92 60.98 5.50
Edmonton, AB Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.20 41.44 22.82 40.76
local measure / currency cbd rents
MARKET COUNTRY unit
quoted
currency
TIME
PERIOD
exchange
rate (USD)
JUNE 30, 2012
AVERAGE
class a
net rent
AVERAGE
class a
gross rent
Average
class a
net rent
Average
class a
Gross
rent
cbd cap
rate
/ prime
yield (%)
EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA (EMEA) continued
MEASURE
cbd rent
local currency
cbd rent us
dollars/sq ft/yr
* Rents reflect combined A and B Class.
11. p. 11 | Colliers International
trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
Guelph, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 11.47 23.10 11.28 22.72 7.25
Halifax, NS Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 17.03 32.36 16.75 31.83
Montréal, QC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 23.18 42.00 22.80 41.31 6.50
Ottawa, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 26.79 49.30 26.35 48.49 6.95
Regina, SK Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 24.70 40.40 24.30 39.74 7.00
Saskatoon, SK Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 25.00 38.00 24.59 37.38 7.00
Toronto, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 29.20 58.40 28.63 57.25
Vancouver, BC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 35.10 55.00 34.53 54.10 4.75
Victoria, BC Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 22.00 36.00 21.64 35.41 6.00
Waterloo Region, ON Canada SF CAD Year 1.02 13.65 25.28 13.43 24.87 7.25
Atlanta, GA United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.49 22.99 11.49 22.99 7.80
Bakersfield, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 9.31 17.40 9.31 17.40
Baltimore, MD United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.22 23.22 12.22 23.22
Birmingham, AL United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.92 20.92 20.92 20.92
Boise, ID United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.71 20.71 14.71 20.71
Boston, MA United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.63 45.63 25.63 45.63 6.00
Charleston, SC United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.09 30.09 20.09 30.09 8.00
Charlotte, NC United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.80 23.80 23.80 23.80
Chicago, IL United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.85 37.35 16.85 37.35 6.50
Cincinnati, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.72 23.22 13.72 23.22 9.75
Cleveland, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00
Columbia, SC United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.39 19.39 19.39 19.39
Columbus, OH United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.23 19.89 11.23 19.89
Dallas/Fort Worth,
TX
United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.00 25.00 15.00 25.00
Denver, CO United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.71 29.56 13.71 29.56 6.50
Detroit, MI United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.63 23.63 23.63 23.63 12.00
Fresno, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 15.90 24.00 15.90 24.00 9.00
Ft. Lauderdale-
Broward, FL
United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.58 31.08 17.58 31.08
Grand Rapids, MI United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.38 19.33 11.38 19.33 9.25
Hartford, CT United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.40 22.90 10.40 22.90
Honolulu, HI United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.48 35.16 18.48 35.16
Houston, TX United States SF USD Year 1.00 36.80 36.80 36.80 36.80
Indianapolis, IN United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.55 19.05 11.55 19.05 8.00
Jacksonville, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 9.54 19.44 9.54 19.44
Kansas City, MO United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.04 19.04 11.04 19.04
Las Vegas, NV United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.84 30.84 19.84 30.84
Little Rock, AR United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.89 15.59 8.89 15.59 9.50
Los Angeles, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.36 36.36 20.36 36.36 6.90
Louisville, KY United States SF USD Year 1.00 19.06 19.06 19.06 19.06
local measure / currency cbd rents
MARKET COUNTRY unit
quoted
currency
TIME
PERIOD
exchange
rate (usd)
JUNE 30, 2012
AVERAGE
class a
net rent
AVERAGE
class a
gross rent
average
class a
net rent
average
class a
gross
rent
cbd cap
rate
/ prime
yield
(%)
MEASURE
cbd rent
local currency
cbd rent us
dollars/sq ft/yr
12. trends and forecast | 2012 | office | GLOBAL
p. 12 | Colliers International
local measure / currency cbd rents
MARKET COUNTRY unit
quoted
currency
time
period
exchange
rate (usd)
JUNE 30, 2012
AVERAGE
class a net
rent
AVERAGE
class a
gross rent
average
class a
net rent
average
class a
gross
rent
cbd cap
rate
/ prime
yield
(%)
NORTH AMERICA continued
Memphis, TN United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.26 16.71 8.26 16.71
Miami-Dade, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 24.73 40.23 24.73 40.23
Milwaukee, WI United States SF USD Year 1.00 8.57 19.60 8.57 19.60
Minneapolis, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 5.48 15.25 5.48 15.25
Nashville, TN United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.77 21.77 21.77 21.77 6.50
New York, NY - Downtown
Manhattan
United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.14 47.62 23.14 47.62 5.00
New York, NY - Midtown
Manhattan
United States SF USD Year 1.00 35.80 70.34 35.80 70.34 4.70
New York, NY - Midtown South
Manhattan
United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.87 47.26 25.87 47.26 4.90
Oakland, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.80 31.80 17.80 31.80 7.50
Oklahoma City, OK United States SF USD Year 1.00 17.78 17.78 17.78 17.78
Omaha, NE United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.88 19.88 10.88 19.88
Orlando, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.23 24.23 13.23 24.23 8.50
Philadelphia, PA United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.86 26.50 14.86 26.50 8.00
Phoenix, AZ United States SF USD Year 1.00 10.70 23.70 10.70 23.70
Pittsburgh, PA United States SF USD Year 1.00 11.86 22.61 11.86 22.61 8.26
Portland, OR United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.74 24.74 14.74 24.74
Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill,
NC
United States SF USD Year 1.00 23.41 23.41 23.41 23.41
Reno, NV United States SF USD Year 1.00 21.73 21.73 21.73 21.73
Sacramento, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.39 32.64 25.39 32.64
San Diego, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 13.82 28.68 13.82 28.68
San Francisco, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 24.71 44.81 24.71 44.81 5.60
San Jose - Silicon Valley United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.61 33.11 16.61 33.11
Savannah, GA United States SF USD Year 1.00 12.15 19.15 12.15 19.15 9.50
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA United States SF USD Year 1.00 20.61 30.63 20.61 30.63 6.20
St. Louis, MO United States SF USD Year 1.00 6.97 17.47 6.97 17.47 9.75
St. Paul, MN United States SF USD Year 1.00 4.08 13.17 4.08 13.17
Stamford, CT United States SF USD Year 1.00 25.34 38.84 25.34 38.84 8.00
Stockton, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 16.88 20.64 16.88 20.64 8.50
Tampa Bay, FL United States SF USD Year 1.00 14.15 23.15 14.15 23.15 8.00
Walnut Creek/Pleasanton, CA United States SF USD Year 1.00 27.60 27.60 27.60 27.60 8.00
Washington DC United States SF USD Year 1.00 31.19 53.19 31.19 53.19 5.75
West Palm Beach/Palm Beach
County, FL
United States SF USD Year 1.00 22.25 37.25 22.25 37.25 8.50
White Plains, NY United States SF USD Year 1.00 18.26 32.06 18.26 32.06 8.00
MEASURE
cbd rent
local currency
cbd rent us
dollars/sq ft/yr