Presentation delivered by Dr. DingXin Cheng, Director of the California Pavement Preservation Center at CSU Chico to the CalAPA Fall Asphalt Pavement Conference, Oct. 24-25, 2018 in Sacramento.

1. Optimizing Agency Funding to
Deliver SB 1 Projects
By DingXin (Ding) Cheng
Director of California Pavement Preservation Center
Professor of California State University, Chico
2018 Fall Asphalt Pavement Conference
October 24 - 25, Sacramento, CA

2. Objective of the Study
Evaluate the current pavement management program and
treatment types of Riverside County and provide
recommendations and cost performance measures for
improving the County’s pavement management system and
improve the overall pavement condition throughout the
County Road System.
2

3. Project Tasks
 Task 1- Collect information related to Riverside
County pavement management program.
 Task 2- Determine cost effective M&R Strategies
for the County.
 Task 3- Evaluate the County’s Pavement
Management System.
 Task 4- Evaluate different funding and project
selection scenarios.
 Task 5- Create summary report and presentation.
3

4. Background on Riverside
 4th most populous county in
California, with population
about 2.36 million
 Area = 7,303 square miles
 About 2,000 miles of county
maintained roadways
4

5. Road Miles by Functional Class (Paved Roads)
5
2017 Total
Sections
Total Center
Miles
Total
Lane
Miles PCI
Arterial 715 425.97 887.24 70
Collector 486 229.05 455.31 70
Residential/Local 4272 914.88 1,816.99 74
Rural Local (7) 60 38.53 75.52 74
Rural Major Collector (5) 320 204.43 412.01 71
Rural Minor Arterial (4) 2 0.27 0.54 79
Rural Minor Collector (6) 126 93.97 186.67 80
Urban Collector (5) 106 45.89 96.15 64
Urban Local (7) 3 1.04 1.28 79
Urban Minor Arterial (4) 1 0.70 1.40 62
Urban Principal Arterial-Other
(3) 19 11.57 52.30 70
Total 6110 1,966.32 3,985.41 72
PCI – Pavement Condition Index

6. PCI Breakdown
6
• PCI Value is based on a scale of 0 to
100 (100 being the best possible
condition of pavement).
• PCI breakpoints are used to
differentiate between different levels
of pavement conditions.
• PCI breakpoints are commonly
recommended by MTC.

7. Decision Tree
 A decision tree is a vital part of the Pavement
Management System.
 CP2 Center reviewed County’s current decision
tree.
 Working with the County, CP2 Center developed a
new decision tree based on County’s practice and
life cycle cost.
7

8. Decision Tree with LCC
 A Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis could be used to select the
best treatment for each pavement condition category and
functional class. The Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) can be
calculated using unit cost, x $/yd2, and expected treatment
life, n years, and inflation rate of i%.
 The equivalent annual cost methodology allows to compare
the cost effectiveness of various treatments that have
unequal lifespans.
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 =
𝑥𝑥 × 𝑖𝑖
1 − 1 + 𝑖𝑖 −𝑛𝑛
8

9. Budget Scenarios Analyzed
 Three time periods (5, 10, and 20 year) were analyzed with various
budget scenarios to determine the best ways to improve the average
network PCI.
9
Scenario 5-Year Scenarios 10-Year Scenarios 20-Year Scenarios
1
SB1 Funding with
20% - 40% PM
SB1 Funding with
20% - 40% PM
SB1 Funding with
20% - 40% PM
2
$20 Million with
20% - 40% PM
$20 Million with
20% - 40% PM
-
3
Target – Driven Scenario –
Maintain PCI of 72
Target – Driven Scenario –
Maintain PCI of 72
-
4
SB1 Funding with Increasing
Preventive Maintenance
-
5
SB1 Funding with
Decreasing Preventive
Maintenance
-

10. Determination Factors
The order in which the best scenarios were
determined:
 Network PCI
 Deferred Maintenance Cost
 Average Remaining Life of Pavement
 Total Overall Cost
10

11. 5-Year Scenarios
11
• SB 1 Funding with 20% PM – 40% PM with 4%
Inflation
$135,000,000
$140,000,000
$145,000,000
$150,000,000
$155,000,000
$160,000,000
$165,000,000
$170,000,000
73.4
73.6
73.8
74
74.2
74.4
74.6
74.8
75
75.2
20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCE
COST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
5-Year SB 1 Funding with 4% Inflation
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost, $

12. 5-Year Scenarios
12
• SB 1 Funding with 20% PM – 40% PM: GIS Results with 4% Inflation Rate
and 30% PM
Very good 4071
Good (Non-
load)
374
Good (Load) 47
Poor 144
Very Poor 420
Very good 3487
Good (Non-
load)
534
Good (Load) 339
Poor 464
Very Poor 223

13. 5-Year Scenarios
13
• $20 Million with 20% - 85% PM with 4% Inflation
$245,000,000
$250,000,000
$255,000,000
$260,000,000
$265,000,000
$270,000,000
$275,000,000
$280,000,000
$285,000,000
67.4
67.6
67.8
68
68.2
68.4
68.6
68.8
69
69.2
20%
PM
25%
PM
30%
PM
35%
PM
40%
PM
45%
PM
50%
PM
55%
PM
60%
PM
65%
PM
70%
PM
75%
PM
80%
PM
85%
PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCECOST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
5 Year $20 Million Funding with 4% Inflation
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost

14. 5-Year Scenarios
14
• $20 Million with 20% - 85% PM with 0% Inflation
$205,000,000
$210,000,000
$215,000,000
$220,000,000
$225,000,000
$230,000,000
$235,000,000
67
67.5
68
68.5
69
69.5
70
70.5
20%
PM
25%
PM
30%
PM
35%
PM
40%
PM
45%
PM
50%
PM
55%
PM
60%
PM
65%
PM
70%
PM
75%
PM
80%
PM
85%
PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCECOST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
5 Year $20 Million Funding with 0% Inflation
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost

15. 5-Year Scenarios
15
• $20 Million with 20% - 85% PM: GIS Results with 4% Inflation and 70% PM
Very Good 3456
Good (Non-Load) 534
Good (Load) 347
Poor 487
Very Poor 232
Very good 3549
Good (Non- load) 490
Good (Load) 171
Poor 411
Very Poor 435

16. Summary of findings for 5-year scenarios
 SB 1 $240 million funding with 4% inflation will
increase PCI to 75
 SB 1 $240 million funding with 2018’s dollar will
increase PCI to 76
 Minimum funding of $20 million per year will
decrease the PCI to 69
 To maintain PCI of 72, it will need $170 million for
the five year period
16

17. 10-Year Scenarios
17
SB 1 Funding with 4% Inflation in 2027
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
75.4
75.6
75.8
76
76.2
76.4
76.6
76.8
77
77.2
10% PM 15% PM 20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCE
COST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
10 Year SB 1 Funding with 4% Inflation
Network PCI Series2

18. 10-Year Scenarios
$0
$20,000,000
$40,000,000
$60,000,000
$80,000,000
$100,000,000
$120,000,000
77.5
78
78.5
79
79.5
80
80.5
81
81.5
82
82.5
20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCE
COST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
10 Year SB 1 Funding with 2018's Dollar Value
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost, $
18
SB 1 Funding with 2018’s Dollar Value in 2027

19. 10-Year Scenarios
 SB 1 Funding with 20% PM with 4% Inflation in 2018 vs. 2027
Very Good 3524
Good (Non-Load) 531
Good (Load) 332
Poor 436
Very Poor 231
Very Good 4307
Good (Non-Load) 521
Good (Load) 91
Poor 0
Very Poor 133

20. 10-Year Scenarios
 SB 1 Funding with 20% PM with 2018’s Dollar Value in 2018 vs. 2027
20
Very Good 3524
Good (Non-
Load)
531
Good (Load) 332
Poor 436
Very Poor 231
Very Good 4606
Good (Non-
Load)
378
Good (Load) 67
Poor 0
Very Poor 1

21. 10-Year Scenarios
 $20 Million with 20% - 40% PM with 4% Inflation in 2027
21
$464,000,000
$466,000,000
$468,000,000
$470,000,000
$472,000,000
$474,000,000
$476,000,000
$478,000,000
$480,000,000
61.4
61.6
61.8
62
62.2
62.4
62.6
62.8
63
63.2
20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCECOST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
10 Year $20 Million Funding with 4% Inflation
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost

22. 10-Year Scenarios
 $20 Million with 20% - 40% PM with 4% Inflation in 2018 vs. 2027
22
Very Good 3468
Good (Non-
Load)
532
Good (Load) 345
Poor 478
Very Poor 231
Very Good 3343
Good (Non-
Load)
631
Good (Load) 124
Poor 277
Very Poor 679

23. Summary of findings for 10-year scenarios
 SB 1 $540 million funding with 4% inflation will increase
PCI to 77.
 SB 1 $540 million funding with 2018’s dollar will increase
PCI to 82.
 Minimum funding of $20 million per year will decrease the
PCI to 63.
 To maintain PCI of 72, it will need $425 million for the 10
year period with a 4% inflation rate.
 To maintain PCI of 72, it will need $347 million for the 10
year period with 2018’s dollar.
23

24. 20-YearScenarios
 SB 1 Funding with 20% - 40% PM
2037
Budget $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000
Network PCI 69 69 68 68 68
Deferred Maintenance
Cost $361,161,603 $334,414,197 $343,202,954 $350,355,032 $389,439,533
Average Remaining
Life 17.94 18.05 18.17 18.24 18.32
Total Cost $839,991,729 $839,979,811 $835,327,964 $828,632,678 $812,052,870
20 Year Analysis 4% Inflation
Year Summary 20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
20 Year Analysis 2018’s Dollar Value
Year Summary 20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
2037
Budget $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000 $30,000,000
Network PCI 80 79 79 78 77
Deferred Maintenance
Cost $34,636,949 $27,181,367 $30,703,628 $39,845,654 $35,978,951
Average Remaining Life 23.08 22.89 22.65 22.29 21.90
Total Cost $837,584,425 $837,453,641 $829,253,015 $816,278,660 $800,269,044

25. 20-Year Scenarios
 SB 1 - Funding with 20% - 40% PM
25
$300,000,000
$310,000,000
$320,000,000
$330,000,000
$340,000,000
$350,000,000
$360,000,000
$370,000,000
$380,000,000
$390,000,000
$400,000,000
67.4
67.6
67.8
68
68.2
68.4
68.6
68.8
69
69.2
20% PM 25% PM 30% PM 35% PM 40% PM
DEFERREDMAINTENANCE
COST
NETWORKAVERAGEPCI
PERCENT PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE
20 Year SB 1 Funding with 4% Inflation
Network PCI Deferred Maintenance Cost, $

26. 20-Year Scenarios
 SB 1 - Funding with 20% - 40% PM with 4% Inflation in 2018 vs. 2037
26
Very Good 3507
Good (Non-
Load)
532
Good (Load) 334
Poor 450
Very Poor 231
Very Good 3323
Good (Non-
Load)
1179
Good (Load) 267
Poor 179
Very Poor 106

27. 20-Year Scenarios
 SB 1 - Funding with 20% - 40% PM with 2018’s Dollar Value in 2018 vs. 2037
27
Very Good 3507
Good (Non-
Load)
532
Good (Load) 334
Poor 450
Very Poor 231
Very Good 4367
Good (Non-
Load)
547
Good (Load) 116
Poor 21
Very Poor 1

28. Summary of findings for 20 year scenarios
 SB 1 funding of $540 million for the first 10 years +
$300 million for the second 10 years
 With 4% inflation, the average network PCI will
increase to 77 at year 2027, and then decrease to
69.
 With 2018’s dollar value, the average network PCI
will increase to 82 at year 2027, and then decrease
to 80.
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29. Conclusions
29
1. After reviewing the decision tree and treatments used by Riverside
County, CP2 Center worked with the County engineer and
adjusted decision tree, PCI breakpoints, and treatments. A new
decision tree was developed based on life cycle cost.
2. Over 30 different budget scenarios were analyzed by the CP2
Center. The most beneficial budget scenarios are not either fixing
the worst first or performing pavement maintenance
(PM/preservation) only.
3. The $20 million per year budget is not enough to maintain the
current average network PCI. Based on this study, the PCI value
will continue to decrease with $20 million per year of funding.

30. Recommendations
1. Continually update the costs and service life for each
treatment in the decision tree.
2. A life cycle cost analysis should be used to select
proper treatments for future decision tree update.
3. SB 1 funding or other funding sources are necessary
to improve the average network pavement
conditions. Riverside County has a desired goal for
the PCI to reach 75 or higher after five years; the SB
1 funding will most likely help the County reach this
goal.
30

31. Recommendations
4. A properly balanced preservation and fixing the
worst will give the County the best solution.
5. A balanced budget between pavement preservation
(PM) and fixing the worst roads should be utilized to
improve the County’s pavement conditions. Keys to
achieve the desired PCI include the following:
 Optimize percentages for PM and Rehab (use lowest
deferred maintenance cost)
 Use innovative treatments that can improve life cycle
cost
31

32. Acknowledgement
 We appreciate the Transportation Division of
the Riverside County providing funding for this
meaningful study.
 Thanks Mr. Elmer Datum of the Riverside
County, who provided consistent support to
this study!
 Thanks students research assistants Kimberly
Joselin and Riley de Wit, who worked on the
project.
 Thanks Dr. R. Gary Hicks for his review.
32

33. Thank you very much!
Questions?
Contact Dr. DingXin Cheng: dxcheng@csuchico.edu
Phone: 530-898-5114
33
Today Decides Tomorrow