1. 0
A transition towards a
sustainable energy
system in Galicia
Combining backcasting, sustainable
energy landscape design and energy
planning to achieve a sustainable
energy system by 2030
B. García Nodar
2. 1
A transition towards a sustainable energy
system in Galicia
Combining backcasting, sustainable energy landscape
design and energy planning to achieve a sustainable
energy system by 2030
By
B. García Nodar
Student number: 4412508
in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science
in Sustainable Energy Technology
at the Delft University of Technology,
to be defended publicly on Monday August 22, 2016.
Supervisor: Prof. dr. ir. J. N. Quist
Thesis committee: Prof. dr. ir. J. N. Quist TU Delft
Ir. S. Broersma TU Delft
Prof. dr. K. Blok TU Delft
Prof. dr. ir. A.A. J. van Dobbelsteen TU Delft
An electronic version of this thesis is available at http://repository.tudelft.nl/.
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Summary
Globally, a growing effort towards sustainability has arisen from the increasing pressure on
global resources. A transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies has been internationally
identified as one of the main challenges to achieve global sustainability. The region of Galicia,
in the North West of Spain, has certain defining characteristics which suggest it could lead by
example. Firstly, its geographical situation and its complex orography create a significant
potential for a wide range of renewable energy sources. Secondly, its location in a corner of
the Iberian peninsula, with more than 1200 km of coast, reduces the degree of
interconnectivity with other regions, bridging the gap between self-sufficiency projects
currently being developed in islands (e.g. Texel, Samsø, El Hierro, Galápagos…) and the
energy transition in larger and more interconnected areas such as central European countries.
Furthermore, a rather disperse population is an interesting factor for the implementation of
distributed energy systems such as solar panels. Finally, the importance of the environment
for tourism and as one of the defining elements of its culture may increase the interest in these
sustainable initiatives.
The great investments made in wind energy during the late 1990’s and the decade of the
2000’s placed Galicia at the forefront of the implementation of this technology, being for many
years the sixth largest wind energy producer in the world on its own. However, the effects of
the 2007 economic crisis and the unfavourable energy policy measures taken afterwards have
greatly slowed down the investments in renewable energy. For that reason, this master’s
thesis aims at exploring the challenges and opportunities of retaking and strengthening the
previous pathway towards sustainability in the Galician energy system.
Such an energy transition requires academic support and a theoretical framework, but
widespread future studies such as forecasting tend to perpetuate the drawbacks of the present
situation into the future. Participatory backcasting is proposed as a normative approach to
design desirable futures and broaden the scope of policy-makers and other stakeholders.
By reinforcing Quist’s backcasting approach with sustainable energy landscape design and
energy planning, a combined theoretical framework is created as a tool for designing and
implementing a sustainable energy future for the region of Galicia, where the energy demand
can be fulfilled by locally available renewable energy sources. The objective of this master’s
thesis is summarized in its main research question:
How can a sustainable energy system be achieved in Galicia by 2030?
To achieve this target, several steps have been followed. First, a strategic problem orientation
stage has been performed by analysing the current energy system and its stakeholders
(Section 3), and the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy efficiency
measures and energy storage in the region (Section 4). Secondly, a desirable energy system
for 2030 was defined and compared with the Business As Usual Scenario (Section 5). Thirdly,
the backcasting analysis was divided in technical and spatial interventions (Section 6), on the
one hand, and social, cultural and political interventions (Section 7), including the actions to
be taken by different stakeholders and the follow-up efforts, on the other hand.
The Desired Vision defined in this master’s thesis is based on goals such as a 50% cut in the
energy demand from 2012 levels by 2030, self-sufficiency, meeting the demand with locally
available renewable energy sources, or an extensive use of energy efficiency measures.
The current energy system, as described in Section 3, is far away from these goals. In fact,
84% of the primary energy is imported, with virtually all of it coming from fossil fuels. Therefore,
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not only the objective of being self-sufficient is distant, but also less than 16% of the primary
energy is currently produced from renewable energy sources.
Additionally, the Business As Usual Scenario depicted in Section 5 highlights that the current
trends and forecasts will only perpetuate these issues into the future. Firstly, 80% of the
primary energy would still be imported in the BAU Scenario, and less than 20% of the total
would be produced by renewable energy sources. Furthermore, the total energy demand by
2030 in the BAU Scenario would actually increase by 18% when compared with 2012, far from
the desired 50% cut.
The implementation of technical, spatial, social, cultural, and institutional changes required to
achieve the Desired Vision by 2030 has been outlined. A widespread use of energy efficiency
measures across all sectors, the implementation of renewable energy systems, the
electrification of the road transportation sector, upgrades on the Galician energy infrastructure,
the installation of additional support capacity, the implementation of cross-subsidies in the
transportation sector, the establishment of quotas and technology-specific feed-in-tariffs
assuring a floor price for renewable energy systems, the reduction in the cultural value of car
ownership, achieving long-term social and institutional commitment, or the creation of a
coordinating institution for the energy transition have all been identified as measures leading
to the objective of achieving a sustainable energy system by 2030.
In conclusion, achieving a sustainable energy system by 2030 is technically feasible, but a
serious social and political commitment is required in the mid- to long-term. The renewable
energy potentials are way larger than the required installed capacity for each technology,
making self-sufficiency an achievable objective if the road transportation sector is powered by
electricity. The 50% cut in the energy demand from 2012 levels, however, can only be
achieved if significant social and institutional changes are made, according to the comparison
between the BAU Scenario and the Desired Vision performed in Section 5.
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Table of Contents
Summary ............................................................................................................................. 3
1. Introduction.................................................................................................................. 9
1.1. Problem exploration........................................................................................ 10
1.2. Objective and research questions ................................................................. 11
1.3. Research approach......................................................................................... 11
1.4. Scientific and social relevance....................................................................... 12
1.5. Research boundaries...................................................................................... 13
1.6. Definitions........................................................................................................ 13
1.7. Outline of the report........................................................................................ 13
2. Theoretical framework.................................................................................................. 15
2.1. Backcasting ............................................................................................................ 15
2.1.1. Future studies .................................................................................................. 15
2.1.2. History of backcasting..................................................................................... 17
2.2. Sustainable energy landscape design.................................................................. 19
2.3. Energy planning.................................................................................................. 23
2.3.1. Multi-level perspective of energy transitions............................................. 23
2.3.2. Energy policy: Supply side ......................................................................... 26
2.3.3. Demand Side Management ......................................................................... 27
2.4. Methodological framework................................................................................. 29
2.4.1. Backcasting as a generic framework.............................................................. 29
2.4.2. Morphological analysis as a tool to envision future visions......................... 29
2.4.3. Methodological framework of research.......................................................... 30
3. Current energy system ................................................................................................. 35
3.1. System .................................................................................................................... 35
3.1.1. Energy supply .................................................................................................. 35
3.1.2. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 38
3.2. Stakeholders........................................................................................................... 40
3.2.1. Financers.......................................................................................................... 40
3.2.2. Research and knowledge institutes................................................................ 40
3.2.3. Companies........................................................................................................ 41
3.3.4. Users................................................................................................................. 42
3.3.5. Interest groups................................................................................................. 42
3.3.6. Media................................................................................................................. 43
3.3.7. Policy makers................................................................................................... 43
3.3.8. Overview of stakeholders and their interests ................................................ 43
3.3.3. Social factors ................................................................................................... 47
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5. Future visions ............................................................................................................... 75
5.1. Morphological analysis.......................................................................................... 75
5.2. Business As Usual Scenario ................................................................................. 76
5.2.1. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 78
5.2.2. Available energy............................................................................................... 80
5.2.3. Energy exports................................................................................................. 82
5.2.4. Energy production and imports...................................................................... 83
5.2.5. Summary BAU Scenario by 2030 .................................................................... 84
5.3. Desired vision......................................................................................................... 87
5.3.1. Energy demand ................................................................................................ 90
6. Technical and spatial interventions............................................................................. 95
6.1. Transportation........................................................................................................ 95
6.2. Energy efficiency measures .................................................................................. 97
6.3. Renewable energy systems................................................................................... 99
Wind energy ............................................................................................................. 100
Hydropower and minihydro .................................................................................... 102
Biomass and biogas................................................................................................ 104
USR and other residues .......................................................................................... 106
Abandonment of fossil fuels................................................................................... 107
Solar energy............................................................................................................. 109
6.3. Summary: Supply, demand and potentials......................................................... 110
6.4. Infrastructure........................................................................................................ 114
6.5. Energy storage and other support capacity ....................................................... 115
Figure 6.32. Necessary support capacity according to the proposed implementation
timeline of the Desired Vision. ................................................................................... 116
7. Backcasting analysis.................................................................................................. 117
7.1. Transportation ...................................................................................................... 117
7.1.1. Necessary changes........................................................................................ 117
7.1.2. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 118
7.2. Energy efficiency measures ................................................................................ 119
7.2.1. What................................................................................................................ 119
7.2.2. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 120
7.3. Renewable energy systems................................................................................. 121
7.3.1. What................................................................................................................ 121
7.3.2. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 123
7.4. Infrastructure........................................................................................................ 123
7.4.1. What................................................................................................................ 123
7.4.2. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 124
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7.5. Energy storage and other support capacity ....................................................... 124
7.5.1. What................................................................................................................ 124
7.5.2. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 125
7.6. Political, cultural, and social changes ................................................................ 125
7.6.1. What................................................................................................................ 125
7.6.3. How to achieve them and who should act.................................................... 128
7.7. Transition pathway and timeline of implementation.......................................... 129
8. Conclusions, recommendations, and methodological reflection............................ 133
8.1. Conclusions.......................................................................................................... 133
8.2. Recommendations ............................................................................................... 135
8.3. Methodological reflection and recommendations.............................................. 136
References ...................................................................................................................... 140
Books, articles, and reports ....................................................................................... 140
Online........................................................................................................................... 146
Interviews..................................................................................................................... 148
Appendix A. Energy balances........................................................................................ 149
Appendix B. Morphological Analysis ............................................................................ 152
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1. Introduction
Global warming and the depletion of natural resources are issues that need to be tackled
quickly if disastrous effects on the climate are to be avoided, such as the 2°C rise in the
average global temperature that is likely to be exceeded by 2100, as reported by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013). A coordinated range of
international mandates and incentives is required to face this technical, social and economic
challenge. However, leading local and regional initiatives are highly valuable as they spur
change in other regions by building experience in such a transition and by demonstrating its
feasibility.
The region of Galicia, in the North West of Spain, is of special interest for the implementation
of renewable energies. Its geographical situation and its complex orography provide an
unusual mix of both high wind and solar energy potentials. Galicia’s permanent and relatively
large rivers have already made hydropower a vital part of its power mix. The potential for
biomass energy is large as well, due to the abundant forests and the agricultural and livestock
farming tradition. Low enthalpy geothermal energy is also being used to provide heating and
cooling to a relatively small percentage of houses. The roughness of the Atlantic Ocean hitting
its coast and the expertise of the Galician shipyards have also attracted attention towards the
development of wave energy systems. Furthermore, its geographical location in a corner of
the Iberian peninsula, a strongly defined cultural identity and its rather disperse population can
be identified as additional factors to consider Galicia as an interesting subject to lead the
transition towards a higher share of renewable energies in the mix.
The Energy Institute of Galicia (Instituto Enerxético de Galicia, INEGA) is actively developing
different ways of improving energy efficiency, reducing energy demand and stimulating the
development of renewable energies in the region. The subsidies given to the development of
wind energy in the late 1990’s and the decade of the 2000’s placed Galicia and Spain at the
forefront of the implementation of this technology. However, policy measures taken during and
after the financial crisis have slowed down the investments in renewable energy, as shown
below.
Figure 1.1. Installed electricity generation capacity in Galicia 1976-2014 (based on data
from INEGA).
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Installedcapacity[MW]
Hydro Biomass CHP PV USR Minihydro Thermoelectric (coal) Thermoelectric (oil&gas) Wind
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In this master’s thesis, the potential of Galicia to spearhead the shift towards a sustainable
energy future in Spain will be assessed by using a theoretical framework where participatory
backcasting and sustainable energy landscape design are combined. The locally available
renewable energy sources and the current energy system will be analysed. Subsequently, a
vision of desired energy future will be created as a vital part of the backcasting analysis and
compared to the Business As Usual scenario by 2030. A backcasting analysis is then expected
to provide insight on the interventions required to achieve the Desired Vision. Finally, a
comprehensive implementation pathway will be developed, proposing an implementation
timeline for the identified technical, social, and political changes.
In the following Sub-sections of this introduction, the research problem will be explained and
defined. Its scientific and societal relevance will be assessed, and the objective of the project
will be determined. The research question and the sub-questions related to it will be presented
afterwards. Finally, a founded choice of the research methods and data collection issues will
be explained, followed by an outline of the thesis.
1.1. Problem exploration
The implementation of renewable energy sources in Galicia has been particularly successful
in the wind, hydroelectric and biomass energy sectors. Huge investments were made in
hydroelectric power in the decades of the 1950’s, 60’s and 70’s, when 78% of the current
hydroelectric capacity (3.3GW) was installed (INEGA, 2014). In the 1990’s and the first decade
of the 21st
century, subsidies and an extraordinary wind resource placed Galicia as one of the
world leaders in wind-MW per capita. In 2012, wind, hydroelectric and biomass combined
accounted for 91% of the primary energy obtained from local resources (INEGA, 2014).
However, 82% of the primary energy is still being imported and virtually all of it consists of
fossil fuels, as it can be seen in the figure below. The severe economic recession of 2008
resulted in a sharp reduction of subsidies and investments in renewable energy sources, as it
was discussed in the introduction.
Figure 1.2. Primary energy consumption in Galicia 2012 (data from INEGA, 2014).
47.5%
12.2%
22.7%
17.6%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
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With the current improvement in the economic atmosphere and the increasing international
focus on fighting climate change and on the transition towards a sustainable energy system,
regions like Galicia should take advantage of their privileged natural resources and lead the
change. The policies in place in the next five years shape investments for the next ten years,
which largely shape the regional and global energy picture out to 2050 (Shell, 2011).
Consequently, this thesis aims to provide relevant stakeholders with a vision to continue with
the steps initiated in the past and broaden their scope on the possibilities that the future might
hold.
1.2. Objective and research questions
Developing a way to achieve the aforementioned vision of a sustainable future for Galicia is
the fundamental unknown in this research. A methodological framework that supports the
process of designing a desired future for the energy system of this region must be developed
as well. Furthermore, the potential for renewable energy of Galicia needs to be determined if
a sustainable future is to be built, and the stakeholders involved in the energy system must be
identified in order to understand it and design a satisfactory implementation strategy.
The main research question and the eight proposed sub-questions are presented below:
How can a sustainable energy system be achieved in Galicia in 2030?
a) How is the current energy system of Galicia?
b) Who are the stakeholders involved?
c) What is the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy efficiency
measures and energy storage in Galicia?
d) How would a desirable energy system for this region look like in 2030?
e) How would such a Desired Vision compare to a Business As Usual scenario?
f) What kind of interventions are needed to achieve this desired future?
g) How can these interventions be feasibly planned over time?
h) What could different stakeholders do?
1.3.Research approach
The most popular approaches of future studies are meant to describe likely futures and
possible futures. As a consequence, several examples can be found for these common means
of tackling a similar problem: forecasting (e.g. Meadows et al, 1972) and scenario design (e.g.
Shell, 2008), respectively. However, forecasting is based on dominant trends, which results in
solutions which are unlikely to break them (Dreborg, 1996). Scenarios can unconsciously
narrow the scope of the possible futures, finding an obstacle in our perception of what is
possible or reasonable. Therefore, designing likely or possible futures offers a questionable
solution to sustainability in general and to the energy transition that is required to achieve it in
particular. To overcome these limitations, a third type of approach to future studies is
introduced: backcasting.
Backcasting is preferred when a major societal problem needs to be solved, and focuses on
describing desirable futures and analysing the way they can be achieved. Building on Dreborg,
backcasting is a particularly promising alternative to forecasting and scenario design in case
of complex problems, a need for major change, when dominant trends are part of the problem,
when externalities that cannot be satisfactorily solved in markets exist and for long-time
horizons (Dreborg, 1996). The transition taking place in the first half of the XXI century, moving
from a fossil fuel-based economy towards a sustainable energy system with large-scale
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implementation of renewable energies, fulfils all of the elements mentioned above.
Accordingly, backcasting is indeed a firm candidate to help Galician policy-makers and other
stakeholders broaden their scope and design desirable energy systems for the future of this
region.
By combining energy backcasting with sustainable energy landscape design, the desired
visions of the future for Galicia can be designed based on the optimization of locally available
renewable energy sources. By merging these two approaches, as previously done by Ricken
(2012), a new theoretical framework can be created, with better tools to identify the renewable
energy potentials and the spatial distribution of the proposed interventions. While the value of
this approach is based on taking advantage of the singularities of each region, the sustainable
energy landscape design approach has traditionally been applied to local initiatives, and
consequently it will have to be adapted in this case, given the larger scale of the region.
Additionally, this combined framework can be reinforced with energy planning. A more
comprehensive understanding of the tools available to implement the technical, social, and
political changes is expected to improve the proposed implementation and follow-up efforts.
In spite of the limited attention paid to implementation in many examples where backcasting
approaches have been used, developing a realistic and detailed implementation pathway is
critical to achieve the desired future vision.
1.4.Scientific and social relevance
On the one hand, the scientific relevance of the research proposed here can be found in the
integration of Backcasting, Sustainable Energy Landscape Design, and Energy Planning. By
using backcasting as a generic theoretical framework and reinforcing it with the other two
approaches, a comprehensive framework with the tools to successfully propose a way to
achieve a sustainable energy system for Galicia by 2030 is achieved.
On the other hand, the social relevance of this master’s thesis has its foundations in four
pillars:
Developing a sustainable energy system is one of the most direct means of fighting
global warming. This has the deep ethical connotation of guaranteeing a healthy and
secure place to live for the generations to come.
Basing the energy system on locally available renewable energy sources eradicates
the dependence on other countries in energy matters. Particularly, an energy system
with a high reliance on oil implies having a supply which is highly dependent on
countries in the Middle East. Frequent social unrest and conflicts in this region
generate important fluctuations in the price of the imported oil, which in turn has a
significantly negative effect on the economy.
Supporting sustainability improves the general image of Galicia and brings added-
value to the tourism sector, which has made of nature its main appeal.
Being at the forefront of the transition of Spain towards a sustainable energy system
would be a great opportunity to create jobs in the renewable energy industry.
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1.5.Research boundaries
The goal of achieving a sustainable energy system in Galicia by 2030 can be met in different
ways. In order to better define the scope and constraints of the research developed in this
master’s thesis, a set of research boundaries and conditions is defined:
It is considered that self-sufficiency is one of the characteristics of a sustainable energy
system. Therefore, achieving self-sufficiency will be a key defining parameter of the
Desired Vision. In other words, all the energy demand must be met with locally
available energy sources.
It is also considered that a sustainable energy system can only be achieved if the
energy supply is fully integrated by a portfolio of renewable energy systems. As a
consequence, no fossil fuels will be used to produce energy in the Desired Vision.
Interviews with relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, professional
associations, and energy cooperatives, will also be used to partly define the
characteristics of the Desired Vision.
Air and maritime transport are excluded from the research. Since most of the routes
followed by airplanes and ships are intrinsically international, European or even global
regulations would be needed to successfully achieve a transition in these two
transportation modes. As a consequence, they are left out of the boundaries of this
research.
The Galician boundaries will be taken into account, including the coastal areas
belonging to this region. Consequently, ocean and offshore wind energy will be eligible
to compose the part of the energy mix.
1.6.Definitions
The terms “Scenario” and “Vision” are often used in an interchangeable fashion. In this
master’s thesis, they have been used with the following defining characteristics:
The term “Vision” is frequently mentioned in this master’s thesis when referring to
future situations partly or entirely defined by someone’s preferences or desires.
“Scenario”, on the other hand, has been associated with possible futures purely based
on external data and forecasts.
As a consequence, the Desired Vision is one among many future visions built on the
preferences of the author and the interviewed stakeholders, while the Business As Usual
Scenario depicts a future which is purely defined by current and predictable trends, with no
personal opinions of preferences involved.
1.7.Outline of the report
A generic backcasting approach will be combined and reinforced with sustainable energy
landscape design and energy planning in Section 2, with the objective of defining a theoretical
framework for this master’s thesis. The backcasting approach can be identified in the structure
starting in Section 3, where a PESTEL analysis of the current energy system will be performed,
outlining the starting point of the energy transition from the political, economic, social,
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technological, environmental, and legal perspectives. Section 4 will rely on sustainable energy
landscape design tools in order to assess the renewable energy potentials of the region,
serving as a continuation of this strategic problem orientation step. In Section 5, a Desired
Vision of the Galician energy system and a Business as Usual Scenario will be defined and
compared. The insights provided by this Section are expected to be used to perform a better
backcasting analysis, which will be included in Section 6 following the PESTEL structure. A
pathway to achieve the Desired Vision will be developed in Section 7, where both energy
planning and sustainable energy landscape design are expected to help with the creation of a
comprehensive implementation step. The proposed implementation timelines, the required
technical and social interventions, the spatial distribution of these changes, the suggested
supporting policies, and the role of different stakeholders in the transition towards a
sustainable energy system will be presented in this Section. Finally, the conclusions and
recommendations of this master’s thesis will be explored in Section 8.
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2. Theoretical framework
Developing a deep understanding of the trends and possibilities related to the future of energy
is crucial in order to avoid disastrous effects on the climate caused by global warming and the
depletion of natural resources. However, understanding the energy future is not at all a trivial
matter, given its complex and ambiguous nature. In this section, we take an academic
approach to studying and designing visions for the future, with the ambition of coping with its
inherent uncertainty and developing strategies to achieve a sustainable energy system.
2.1. Backcasting
In this sub-section, a reasoned choice for backcasting will be made after comparing three
different types of future studies. Then, the main approaches of backcasting will be described
and compared by using Quist’s comprehensive review of the history of backcasting (Quist,
2007). Finally, the advantages of merging different theories and frameworks in a generic
backcasting approach will be highlighted.
2.1.1. Future studies
Energy plays a central role in the issues of climate change and the depletion of the resources.
In order to understand the trends of the development of energy and the possibilities of
transitioning towards a system based on renewable energy, a scientific approach must be
used. Forecasting, exploratory scenarios and backcasting have been identified as the most
popular approaches.
Using forecasting, we can predict the most likely future based on observations of the past, e.g.
McKinsey (2015). By definition, forecasting is based on dominant trends, which results in
solutions that are unlikely to break them (Dreborg, 1996). Accordingly, forecasting the future
of energy systems can be useful to warn stakeholders about the dangers of following the
current trends, but it is questionable that this approach can provide solutions to the
aforementioned problems.
We can map uncertainty and complexity by using explorative scenarios, e.g. (Shell, 2008,
2013). However, scenarios can unconsciously narrow the scope of the possible futures, finding
an obstacle in our perception of what is possible or reasonable. As a consequence, some
disruptive technologies might be discarded from explorative scenarios because the authors
see them as completely implausible. Systematically neglecting these possibilities may hinder
the discovery of vital breakthroughs in the development of a sustainable energy future.
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Figure 2.1. Future studies (Robinson, 1990).
Backcasting is a planning method which starts by defining a desirable future vision or
normative scenario and subsequently looking back at how this desirable future could be
achieved (Quist & Vergragt, 2006). Building on Dreborg, backcasting is a particularly
promising alternative to forecasting and scenario design in case of complex problems, a need
for major change, when dominant trends are part of the problem, when externalities that
cannot be satisfactorily solved in markets exist and for long-time horizons (Dreborg, 1996).
The transition taking place in the first half of the 21st
century, moving from a fossil fuel-based
economy towards a sustainable energy system with large-scale implementation of renewable
energies, fulfils all of the elements mentioned above. Accordingly, backcasting is indeed a firm
candidate to help policy-makers and other stakeholders broaden their scope and design
desirable energy systems for the future.
Figure 2.2. Backcasting: principle and key characteristics (Quist, 2013).
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2.1.2. History of backcasting
The comprehensive review of the history of backcasting presented by Jaco Quist in his PhD
dissertation (Quist, 2007) has been taken as an outline for this section. Additionally, several
references found in it, linked to core articles of energy backcasting, were also selected due to
the inherent quality of their content.
Origins of backcasting: soft energy paths
Backcasting emerged as an adaptation of normative forecasting with a government-oriented
perspective (Quist, 2007: 18). Its goal was to identify the policy measures that should be
implemented in order to achieve the strategic objectives of a desired future. The origins of
energy backcasting, or backwards-looking analysis, as it was then referred to, can be traced
back to several publications focused on the creation of soft energy paths in the 1970s (Lovins,
1977a, 1977b), presenting backcasting as an alternative to traditional energy forecasting and
planning. In successive decades, numerous studies on this field were written, and backcasting
was applied to plan electricity supply and demand (Anderson, 2001) and to design other soft
energy paths.
Backcasting for sustainability
“Futures under glass” (Robinson, 1990) marked the move towards the application of
backcasting to sustainability, as most of the topics related to it fulfil the previously mentioned
features: they are often complex problems in fields where there is a need for change, present
trends are part of the problem, and deal with long-time horizons.
Figure 2.3. Outline of generic backcasting method. Adapted from Robinson (1990).
Robinson developed the generic six-step methodology shown in Figure 2.3, serving as a
general outline for analyses oriented to environmental issues. More importantly for this
master’s thesis, Robinson (1990) already warned in Futures under glass about the strong
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assumptions needed when defining the boundary conditions, in order to take into account the
effect of global scenarios into national or regional backcasting analyses such as this one.
Many European countries have done studies on water, mobility and mobility technologies.
Åkerman and Höjer (2006) have published one among many Swedish studies on the future of
mobility in this country. In this example, it can be seen how backcasting is not always
necessarily used as one of the methodologies that will be described in section 5, but rather as
an approach where a desired future is designed and the steps or policy measures required to
reach it are described.
Participatory backcasting
The origin of participatory backcasting dates back to the 1990s in the Netherlands. The Dutch
government has been applying this approach, linked with Constructive Technology
Assessment (Dreborg, 1996), as part of the philosophy of programmes such as Sustainable
Technology Development (STD) and Strategies towards the Sustainable Household
(SusHouse) (Quist, 2007: 20).
This shift towards participatory backcasting has also been seen in other parts of the world.
The significant increase in the number of publications related to backcasting since the 2000’s,
mainly originating from countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, Japan, Canada and the
United Kingdom, can be seen in Figure 2.4. Robinson et al have more recently published a
paper where several examples of participatory backcasting were analysed: South Okanagan
Land Use Modelling Project, Local Climate Change visioning project, Collaborative for
interactive research with communities using information technologies for sustainability and
MetroQuest (Robinson, 2011). In the same paper, the authors emphasise the spirit and
limitations of participatory backcasting by stating the importance of a truly consultative process
which includes a large sample of the community (Robinson, 2011).
Figure 2.4. Overview of number of articles published on the topic of backcasting (using the
Scopus online database).
Participatory backcasting has also been applied in the strategic planning for sustainability
within companies in Sweden by applying ‘The Natural Step’ methodology (Holmberg & Robert,
2000). In this case, management and employees at all levels of the company are involved in
the creation of a sustainable vision for the future.
Quist developed a generic methodological framework for participatory backcasting in his PhD
dissertation, consisting of five steps: STEP 1: Strategic problem orientation; STEP 2: Develop
20. 19
future vision; STEP 3: Backcasting analysis; STEP 4: Elaborate future alternative & define
follow-up agenda; STEP 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up.
In Table 2.1, we made a selection of the approaches mentioned in the previous section, with
the objective of making a comparison between them. The key assumptions, the methodology
and some examples have been included for a better understanding of each approach.
Table 2.1. Comparison of five backcasting approaches; extended from Quist (2007: 25).
Robinson’s
‘The Natural
Step’
Sustainable
Technology
Development
SusHouse Quist’s
Keyassumptions
Criteria for social and
environmental desirability are
set externally to the analysis
Goal-oriented
Policy-oriented
Design-oriented
System oriented
Decreasing resource
usage
Diminishing emission
Safeguarding
biodiversity and
ecosystems
Fair and efficient usage
of resources in line with
the equity principle
Sustainable future need
fulfilment
Factor 20
Time horizon of 40-50 years
Co-evolution of technology &
society
Stakeholder participation
Focus on realising follow-up
Stakeholder participation
Factor 20
Sustainable households in
2040
Social and technological
changes are needed
Achieving follow-up is
relevant
Stakeholder
participation
Goal-oriented
Stakeholder learning
Achieving follow-up is
relevant
Methodology(steps)
(1) Determine objectives
(2) Specify goals, constraints
and targets & describe
present system and specify
exogenous variables
(3) Describe present system
and its material flows
(4) Specify exogenous
variables and inputs
(5) Undertake scenario
construction
(6) Undertake scenario impact
analysis
(1) Define a framework
and criteria for
sustainability
(2) Describe the current
situation in relation to
that framework
(3) Envisage a future
sustainable situation
(4) Find strategies for
sustainability
(1) Strategic problem orientation
(2) Develop sustainable future
vision
(3) Backcasting – set out
alternative solutions
(4) Explore options and identify
bottlenecks
(5) Select among options & set
up an action plan
(6) Set up cooperation
agreements
(7) Implement research agenda
(1) Problem orientation
and function definition
(2) Stakeholder
analysis and
involvement
(3) Stakeholder
creativity workshop
(4) Scenario
construction
(5) Scenario
assessments
(6) Stakeholder
backcasting and
strategy workshop
(7) Realisation follow-
up and implementation
(1) Strategic problem
orientation
(2) Develop future
vision
(3) Backcasting
analysis
(4) Elaborate future
alternatives & define
follow-up agenda
(5) Embed results and
agenda & stimulate
follow-up
Examplesof
methods
Social impact analysis
Economic impact analysis
Environmental analysis
Scenario construction
methodologies
System analysis & modelling
Material flow analysis and
modelling
Creativity techniques
Strategy development
Employee involvement
Employee training
Stakeholder analysis
Stakeholder workshops
Problem analysis
External communication
Technology analysis
Construction of future visions
System design & analysis
Stakeholder analysis
Function & system
analysis
Backcasting analysis
Stakeholder workshops
Scenario construction
Scenario evaluation
Generating future
visions
Putting visions and
options on the agenda
of relevant arenas
Developing follow-up
agenda
Realising follow-up
and stakeholder
cooperation
2.2. Sustainable energy landscape design
Sven Stremke (Wageningen Unviersity, The Netherlands) and Andy van den Dobbelsteen (TU
Delft, The Netherlands) published in 2013 an extensive book on Sustainable Energy
Landscapes. By exploring the potentials of spatial planning, planning in landscape architecture
and design-oriented planning, these authors have developed a five-step approach to design
long-term robust visions of sustainable energy landscapes.
The resulting methodology is founded on a literature study of these three fields that leads to
the comparison between tree different approaches:
21. 20
Strategic spatial planning: Four-Track Approach (Albrechts, 2004).
Landscape architecture: Design Framework by Steinitz (2002).
Design-oriented planning: Cyclic Scenario Approach (Dammers, 2005).
A transition towards a sustainable energy system or the adaptation to climate change require
the modification of large scale infrastructures such as the energy system, which have a very
high inertia. As a consequence, these fields have to tackle the problem of developing and
implementing plans which require long time frames to become a reality. It can be seen in the
table included below, made by Stremke and van den Dobbelsteen, that similarities can be
found in the way authors from these different fields.
The first step can be commonly classified as an analysis or evaluation of the current
conditions. It is followed by the identification of the short-term developments that will take
place given the current conditions. The long-term futures, those that can be steered by the
action of these planning strategies, are then identified as possibilities in the third step of these
methodologies. Subsequently, the long-term visions – or the “change(s) caused by
implementable design” – are described, followed by the implementation and recommendations
step.
Table 2.2. Comparison of the Cyclic Scenario Approach, the Four-Track Approach, and the
Design Framework (Stremke & Dobbelsteen, 2013).
Cyclic Scenario
Approach
Four-Track Approach Design Framework
Initial
step
Basic analysis
Analyse present situation, trends
and policies
Identify focal issues
Analysis
Analyse main processes that
shape environment
Agenda setting
Representation
Analyse conditions
Process
Study relationships
Evaluation
Identify dysfunctions
First
modeof
change
Analysis of current trends is part of
analysis
No explicit reference to current
projected trends
Change caused by current
projected trends
Identify trends
Second
modeof
change
External scenarios
Compose scenarios to identify
possible futures
No explicit reference to context
scenarios and critical uncertainties
No explicit reference to context
scenarios and critical uncertainties
Third
modeof
change
Policy scenarios
Explore alternative policy
strategies
Long-term vision
Represent values and meanings
for the future
Change caused by
implementable design
Describe interventions
Finalstep
Recommendations and
knowledge questions
Support development of policy
strategies
Master plan with short-term
actions
Contingency plan with long-term
actions
Short- and long-term actions
Short-term actions to solve
present problems
Long-term actions to achieve
desired future
Budged and strategy for
implementation
Creation of commitment
Impact
Estimate impact of alternative
interventions
Decision
Support decision-making process
Combining these building blocks found in strategic spatial planning, landscape architecture
and design-oriented planning with more general knowledge taken from scenario studies and
planning paradigms, Stremke et al (2012) published an alternative approach included in their
methodological framework for long-term regional design.
22. 21
This methodological framework was developed to meet a set of prerequisites which were
identified in the literature study mentioned above. As mentioned by Stremke et al. (2012), “any
alternative approach to long-term regional planning and design” must:
Be flexible, so it can be adapted to local conditions
Aid the development of solutions specific to the context and the area
Promote active stakeholder participation in the development of the long-term visions
Be transparent and explicit about rational and normative steps
Take into account current projected trends
Consider critical uncertainties
Create several alternative proposals
Allow the use of existing scenario studies
Help to identify innovative and robust interventions
Enable the assessment of the robustness of interventions
Avoid narrowing the scope of future options
As a result of the previous analysis, a methodological framework for integrated visions called
Five-step approach was developed by Stremke et al (2012) and applied for the development
of sustainable energy landscapes in the Dutch municipality of Margraten in the second part of
the publication (2012a).
Figure 2.5. Methodological framework of the five-step approach (Stremke et al, 2012).
Figure 2.5 contains the representation of the sequence of five steps used in this envisioning
process, which should be iterated at least twice. According to Stremke et al (2012), “during
the first cycle, the context and scope of the study are defined, maps and data are gathered,
and stakeholders and decision-makers are invited to participate in the study. During the
second cycle, the actual visions are developed”. The authors also make emphasis on the
iterative nature of the entire process, which implies that the five steps are not linear, but
returning to previous steps might be necessary to answer all questions completely.
Adapting the five-step approach for the EU project City-zen, Broersma & Fremouw (Work in
progress) are currently developing a multi-layered approach for urban energy master plans
which consists six steps:
23. 22
Step 1: Map the present and near future
Step 2: Select potentially suitable measures
Step 3: Determine scenarios
Step 4: Create a vision
Step 5: Define the roadmap
Step 6: Re-calibrate and adjust
Figure 2.6. City-zen approach framework (work in progress…).
Energy Potential Mapping (EPM) is a related method which has been used for the visualisation
of energy potentials and demands of areas ranging from neighbourhoods to regions. As part
of the effort developed by TU Delft to work towards a generic model to the calculate energy
potentials, Broersma (2013) proposed a formal methodology to achieve the exergetic
optimisation of the built environment by using EPM and Heat Maps (HM). Energy Potential
Mapping can be integrated in the aforementioned approaches as an important element
describing sources (renewable energy potentials, infrastructure…) and sinks (residential
demand, transport demand…) of the area under study. Subsequently, both short-term and
long-term visions can be developed based on the information gathered, as depicted in Figure
2.7.
Figure 2.7. Method of Energy Potential Mapping (Broersma & Fremouw, 2014).
24. 23
2.3. Energy planning
Energy planning refers to the development of long-range policies to help guide the future of
energy systems. While the backcasting approach is useful in identifying the modifications
required to reach a desired future (Olsson et al, 2015), prevailing policy processes can greatly
differ from the pathway suggested by backcasting, obstructing the process of achieving such
a vision. Nilsson et al. (2011), Olsson et al (2015) and Robinson (1990) established the
importance of connecting backcasting to the policy process in order to improve its
implementation and usefulness. Consequently, this sub-section will try to provide the
necessary theoretical knowledge on energy policy and planning required to fill the
implementation gap.
Energy policies have played a major role in shaping our current landscape (Narbel, 2014).
Intervention in the energy market is justified when perceived market failures lead to situations
that are not found socially optimal by governments (Narbel, 2014). Fighting climate change,
energy diversification, energy security and industry creation are four of the most common
goals of energy policies. However, transformations in energy systems are long-term change
processes in technology, the economy, institutions, ecology, culture, behaviour, and belief
systems (Patwardhan, 2012), which means that decisions must be taken well in advance:. the
policies in place in the next five years shape investments for the next ten years, which largely
shape the global energy picture out to 2030 and 2050 (Shell, 2011).
An increasing understanding of how energy transitions take place has opened the possibility
to actively influence or manage them (Patwardhan, 2012). Energy planning, multi-level
perspective, demand-side management, transition management, strategic niche management
(SNM), functions of innovation systems (FIS) and other theories and frameworks can be used
to analyse and manage the transition from an energy system based on fossil fuels to a
sustainable energy system where renewable energies play a central role.
First, a theoretical explanation of how such a transition takes place will be achieved by
applying Geel’s dynamic view of the multi-level perspective (MLP) to the energy transition.
The pathways that characterize and represent transitions will be also studied. Secondly, the
need for an intervention in the energy market will be justified by showing the existence of a
market failure, where externalities are not currently being taken into account in the pricing of
energy, followed by the most common policy instruments used to support the implementation
of renewable energy sources will be presented. Finally, the complete vision of the energy
system will be covered by including Demand-Side Management strategies.
2.3.1. Multi-level perspective of energy transitions
By combining insights from the sociology of technology and evolutionary theory, the “multi-
level perspective” (Geels, 2002; Rip & Kemp, 1998) is an approach to understanding
transitions which conceptualizes transformative changes as the product of interrelated
processes at three different levels (Patwardhan, 2012). As shown in Figure 2.8, this
perspective distinguishes between the micro-level of niches (e.g. wind energy, photovoltaic
energy, biomass energy…), the meso-level of socio-technical regimes (e.g. the electricity
system, transportation fuels, the gas market…), and the macro-level of landscapes (public
opinion, climate change, EU regulation, geopolitical relations…).
25. 24
Figure 2.8. Multi-level perspective (Geels, 2002).
The dynamic view of the multi-level perspective, explained in the figure below, is a powerful
visualization on how niche innovations and experiments can break through when there is
sufficient pressure on a given socio-technical regime. If these innovations become powerful
and lead to major changes in technology, market or user practices, they can eventually
become part of the landscape (Geels, 2002).
Figure 2.9. A dynamic representation of the multi-level perspective on transitions (Geels,
2002).
If there is no external pressure from the landscape, radical innovations will be less likely to
break through (Geels & Schot, 2007). Consequently, a dynamic stability will be achieved in
the energy regimes, where market competition and innovation still take place. However,
modifications and innovations will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, leading to regimes
which move in predictable trajectories. A lock-in situation is therefore established.
Geels and Geels and Schot (2007) developed four transition pathways based on the
reinforcing or disruptive relationships of the regime with niche-innovations and landscape
developments. When understanding the energy transition, either one of these pathways or a
combination of several pathways can be used to explain the underlying forces and dynamics:
26. 25
Transformation path: External pressure coming from the landscape level, social
movements and public opinion leads to a gradual adjustment and reorientation of
existing regimes. This change in primarily enacted by regime actors.
De-alignment and re-alignment path: The existing regimes are eroded and
destabilized by major landscape changes. After an initial period of widespread
experimentation where multiple niche innovations coexist, one of then eventually
becomes dominant and leads to a major restructuring of the system (new actors,
principles, beliefs, and practices).
Technological substitution: Landscape pressures open windows of opportunity for
those niche innovations which have the sufficient momentum and stability. These
newcomers compete with incumbent regime actors, eventually replacing them.
Reconfiguration pathway: In this pathway, niche innovations are further developed
when regimes face landscape pressures. Instead of competing with existing regime
actors, the regime adopts certain niche innovations into the system as add-ons or
component substitutions (Patwardhan, 2012). This leads to a gradual reconfiguration of
the regime’s basic architecture, being a more radical transition than that of the
transformation pathway.
The policy environment, as part of the landscape, is one of the key factors influencing the
scaling up of niches to larger regimes. By definition, niches provide a protective environment
where they have space to develop and improve while they are less susceptible to market
pressures (Patwardhan, 2012). Transition management puts this evolutionary view of change
within an iterative, four-stage governance framework (Smith & Stirling, 2010):
1. Problem structuring and goal envisioning
2. Transformation pathways and experiments
3. Learning and adaptation
4. Institutionalization
Certain analogies can be found between the aforementioned steps and Quist’s five-step
backcasting approach. Additionally, the similarities between a transition management
approach and backcasting are clear: they tackle the energy transition’s wicked problem by
using sustainability as a normative concept, taking a system approach with a focus on vision,
actors, learning and change. This master’s thesis will use backcasting as its pivotal framework
due to the flexibility and diversity that will be further discussed in section 2.4.1. However,
including energy planning elements based on transition management and other theories can
improve and strengthen the final recommendations. Therefore, the common policy
instruments used to support renewable energy will be explained after understanding the need
for a market intervention.
27. 26
2.3.2. Energy policy: Supply side
Need for market intervention and externalities
Paraphrasing the first paragraph of this sub-section, intervention in the energy market is
justified when perceived market failures lead to situations that are not found socially optimal
by governments (Narbel, 2014). Many renewable energy technologies are still in its
development phase and they have not achieved grid-parity with conventional technologies yet.
In a deregulated energy market, investors would readily discard developing technologies,
making it harder for them to achieve maturity.
Therefore, niches with market distortions are required to support expensive forms of
renewable energy in a deregulated energy market. Since technological innovation or a
substantial increase in fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, favourable policy instruments
have an important role to play in helping costly technologies reach grid-parity with conventional
technologies (Narbel, 2014).
Furthermore, a direct comparison of the cost of the energy produced by renewable and
conventional energy systems will inevitably lead to distorted conclusions. The consumption or
production of energy results in a cost to another entity which is not compensated for. For
example, the contribution to global warming and the impact on health caused when burning
coal is not accounted for in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) generated from coal. In
other words, the direct cost of energy leaves aside the concept of externality. The cost of these
externalities is paid by current and future generations via their health, a warmer climate, and
decreased biodiversity and agricultural output (Narbel, 2014).
Common policy instruments used to support the energy transition
In practice, policy makers use two different approaches to support the energy transition:
discouraging the use of polluting energy sources, and promoting the use of renewable energy
sources.
Under the first category, governments can tax carbon emissions to fight global warming by
reducing CO2 emissions. The European emission trading scheme (EU-ETS) is a good
example of internalizing the externalities using a “cap and trade” system: the acceptable level
of externality is chosen (cap) and the market regulates the price which is necessary to ensure
that this cap is not crossed (trade)
Additionally, there are three common approaches to supporting the use of renewable energy
technologies. The tendering process and Tradable Green Certificates are quantity-based
instruments, while Feed-in Tariffs are price-based instruments (Narbel, 2014) :
Tendering process: The government sets a quantity of energy capacity to be built.
The energy developers are selected in a bidding process, theoretically assuring that
the cheapest energy projects will be realized first.
Feed-in Tariffs (FiT): Feed-in tariffs are price-based policy instruments which
guarantee a fixed price for each unit of energy (€/MWh) produced over a set period of
time. Different FiTs might be used are often used to reflect the specific degree of
maturity and costs of each technology. However, the cost of a project is not known in
advance with certainty. Consequently, the marginal cost curve of a technology is
usually overestimated or underestimated by policy makers setting FiTs, leading to very
28. 27
high costs for countries in the first case and to little capacity being built in countries
that underestimated the marginal cost.
Tradable Green Certificates (TGF): Under this system, it is mandatory for a producer
to generate part of its energy from renewable sources. Certificates will be awarded for
each MWh of green electricity produced. These certificates can be bought and sold in
a secondary market, ruled by supply and demand, which will determine its price and
drive additional investment when needed. The cost of this policy instrument is
uncertain and it is completely covered by the producers – and eventually by the
consumers – of electricity.
On the one hand, the deployment of renewable energy systems will be slower under a TGC
system when compared to a FiT system due to the uncertainty of future certificate prices.
Furthermore, while a TGC system is efficient and results is more GHG abatement, only the
cheapest energy source is usually supported. This can be seen as a disadvantage, since less
mature technologies are not benefitted from this scheme.
On the other hand, price fluctuations of green certificates derived from the rules of supply and
demand serve as a trigger to accelerate or slow down investment in new capacity. In
opposition to this self-regulation, we have seen that the efficiency of FiT systems is highly
dependent on the accuracy of the estimated marginal cost curve (Narbel, 2014).
In conclusion, governments can decide which combination of these policies should be
implemented to support the transition towards a sustainable energy system. It must be noted
that an energy transition involves parallel policy processes in different sectors (e.g. energy,
transportation, urban planning, etc.). To avoid creating contradictory policies, it is essential to
coordinate the different policy sectors (Geerlings and Stead, 2013; Söderberg, 2011), usually
referred as policy integration (Olsson et al, 2015). The most appropriate support scheme for
Galicia to achieve the future visions designed in the backcasting step of this master’s thesis
will be selected in section 7.
2.3.3. Demand Side Management
The term Demand Side Management (DSM) encompasses a set of strategies aiming at
“improving power energy utilization efficiency, optimizing resource allocation, protecting the
environment, and accomplishing power consumption management activities carried out with
power service at the lowest cost” (Hu et al, 2013) by leading energy users to use it in a more
rational fashion. DSM plays a vital role in the transition towards a sustainable energy system,
as it reduces the need for extra capacity or unnecessary energy use. Energy Efficiency and
Load Management are two of the main tools encompassed by DSM to achieve the effective
utilization of energy, mainly used in the electricity sector (Bhattacharyya, 2011).
The objective of Energy Efficiency measures is to provide the same service while decreasing
its energy demand. This can be achieved by either modifying the behaviour of energy users
or, more often, by implementing technical measures that improve the overall efficiency of
products and services. There are several tools to increase energy efficiency (IEA, 2015):
Both in the residential and the services sector, energy labelling of buildings and appliances is
frequently used, with efficient ones being more attractive for prospective buyers or renters.
The retrofit of existing buildings by improving their thermal isolation can also lead to significant
decreases in the heating and cooling demand in these sectors. Furthermore, promoting zero-
29. 28
energy design in new residential buildings assures that the new stock will not repeat the
energetically inefficient designs of the past.
Meanwhile, recycling is often promoted in the industrial sector as a way of saving raw
materials, costs, and energy. The implementation of minimum standards of energy efficiency
can lead to significant energy savings, especially in energy-intensive industries such as
aluminium production. Furthermore, energy management and benchmarking is starting to be
the norm in some countries, where energy audits are required by law in order to reduce the
overall energy demand in industry.
Finally, fuel efficiency standards for vehicles and subsidies for the most efficient ones, such
as the Spanish “Plan PIVE”, are also being used in combination in order to promote the use
of less energy-intensive and less polluting vehicles.
It is important to note that the reductions achieved by energy efficiency measures often come
with an associated rebound effect or take-back effect. For example, more efficient appliances
may encourage buying larger ones (GEA, 2012); and more efficient cars may encourage
driving more. However, the rebound effect of the changes proposed in this master’s thesis will
not be considered, as it is hard to predict and depends on the social consciousness towards
the environment and sustainability.
Load Management can improve the efficiency of the power utilization by adjusting and
controlling the load. Peak shaving, shown in Figure 2.10, can achieve a significant reduction
in costs by eliminating the need for the extra capacity in power generation and transport
caused by peak demand requirements. This can be achieved by mechanisms aimed at
changing the consumer behaviour, such as pricing incentives, or by using technical measures
such as frequency sensitive relays.
Figure 2.10. Graphic representation of peak shaving (Yeung, 2007).
30. 29
2.4. Methodological framework
Based on the previous sub-sections 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3, common steps and complementary
objectives can be found when comparing backcasting, SLD and energy planning.
Subsequently, these synergies will be further analysed in order to create a comprehensive
methodological framework aimed at creating desirable future energy visions based on the
actual potential of a certain area and at providing sound policy recommendations to achieve
them.
2.4.1. Backcasting as a generic framework
In order to build trustworthy scientific knowledge regarding the energy transition, academics
must design frameworks with a relatively unchanging set of core elements - a stable backbone.
At the same time, they should also create looser, more dynamic elements that can be adapted
quickly to the specific requirements of every challenge.
With the five steps of the methodological framework described by Quist, his intention was “to
cover the full range of participatory backcasting approaches found in the literature” (Quist,
2007: 28). Consequently, it can be used as the backbone to create strong visions of a future
sustainable energy system; a standard framework which can endure over a reasonable period
and be generic enough as to adapt to different regions and needs. At the same time, more
dynamic elements can be implemented in this methodology by combining backcasting with
other relevant techniques and theories, allowing the framework to be adapted quickly to new
challenges and situations. All in all, integrating different theories and approaches in Quist’s
generic approach to backcasting improves the latter by adding a scientifically sound basis to
the elaboration of the desired future visions and the proposal of recommendations to achieve
them.
2.4.2. Morphological analysis as a tool to envision future visions
In order to provide a more systematic approach to the process of envisioning future scenarios,
the General Morphological Analysis (GMA) method is introduced. GMA was developed by the
Swiss astro-physicist Fritz Zwicky for structuring and investigating “the total set of relationships
contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, problem complexes” (Zwicky, 1969). For
these types of problems, such as policy analysis and future studies, causality-based methods
such as simulation and quantitative methods are rather intricate and relatively useless. In
contrast to causal modelling, GMA relies on judgmental processes and internal consistency in
order to identify and investigate the total set of possible configurations contained in a given
problem complex (Ritchey, 1998).
The first step of a GMA consists of creating a morphological box – or “Zwicky box”- where the
parameters of the problem complex, and the range of values associated with each parameter,
are defined by using a morphological field format (Ritchey, 1998). The parameters –or
dimensions- of the problem complex represent the relevant issues involved, with no formal
constraints to mixing and comparing political, technical, financial, and other types of issues.
The second step in the General Morphological Analysis process is the Cross-Consistency
Assessment (CCA). The objective of this step is to reduce the total set of possible
configurations in the aforementioned problem space to a smaller set of internally consistent
configurations representing a solution space. The CCA is based on the existence of numerous
pairs of conditions (or values) in the Zwicky box which are mutually incompatible. Therefore,
31. 30
any configuration containing a pair of these mutually incompatible conditions will also be
internally inconsistent (Ritchey, 1998).
Citing Tom Ritchey, “there are three types of inconsistencies involved here: purely logical
contradictions (i.e. those based on the nature of the concepts involved); empirical
inconsistencies (i.e. relationships judged to be highly improbable or implausible on empirical
grounds), and normative constraints (e.g. relationships ruled out on e.g. ethical or political
grounds)” (Ritchey, 1998).
2.4.3. Methodological framework of research
An outline of a toolbox for backcasting has been proposed in the literature (Quist, 2007),
consisting of participatory tools and methods, design tools and methods, analytical tools and
methods, and tools and methods for management, coordination and communication.
However, by complementing backcasting with Sustainable Energy Landscape Design (SLD)
and with Energy Planning (EP), we can take advantage of pre-developed methods and tools,
achieving a comprehensive theoretical framework for the energy transition towards renewable
energies. Firstly, SLD provides a systematic approach to mapping the renewable energy
potentials of a certain region and to studying its current energy system, which is vital for Step
1: Strategic problem orientation. Furthermore, it overlaps with backcasting in the generation
of future visions. Secondly, EP provides a solid foundation for the recommendations and
follow-up activities included in Step 4: Elaborate future alternatives & define follow-up agenda,
and Step 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up.
The resulting methodological framework to design the transition towards a sustainable energy
system in Galicia be explained below by using Quist’s five-step backcasting methodological
framework as its backbone. Table Y will provide a summary of the steps where SLD and EP
have been particularly useful by providing additional tools and methods for each step.
Figure 2.11. Influence of the different theories in the theoretical framework of this master’s
thesis.
Step 1: Strategic problem orientation
This step is shared by most backcasting approaches. Defining the present conditions can also
be found in the first step of Stremke’s five-step framework (Stremke & Koh, 2012), and the
analysis of the renewable energy potentials can be performed by means of Energy Potential
Mapping and other SLD tools. Therefore, the methodological gap found in traditional
backcasting approaches to reach an in-depth understanding of the current energy system and
the renewable energy potentials can be filled by Sustainable Energy Landscape Design
methodologies. All in all, four key issues can be tackled by combining these two
methodological frameworks:
32. 31
Defining goals, targets, and constraints.
Analysing the current energy system.
Identifying the key stakeholders and their interests.
Assessing the renewable energy potentials in the region.
Exogenous variables, goals, constraints and target of the research are defined in this first step.
A broad analysis of the current energy system and its stakeholders is performed, as
understanding how the current energy system works is the starting point for the desired energy
transition. An assessment of the renewable energy potentials of the region, including energy
saving and energy storage potentials, will set the technical limits for any future intervention.
For instance, if energy self-sufficiency is part of the future visions designed in the following
step, studying the renewable potential of Galicia is essential to assess its feasibility.
Step 2: Develop future visions
This step of the backcasting approach traditionally involves designing different conceptions of
a desirable future. In this case, such visions should be based on the transition towards a
renewable energy system in Galicia. The development of integrated visions is also one of the
key features of Sustainable Landscape Design’s five-step framework (Stremke, 2012).
Most applications of the backcasting or the SLD approaches found in the literature develop
these desirable visions and provide insight on its implementation, but they fail to provide a
benchmark on how the future would look like if those changes wouldn’t take place. In other
words, the desired future visions are compared between them and with the current situation,
but the expected developments are often neglected, providing less support to the subsequent
recommendations on the necessary changes to achieve such desired visions.
In order to tackle this gap in the methodology, this master’s thesis will take a slightly different
approach. First, a Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario will be developed by combining current
Galician, European, and global trends in the economic activity and the energy sector. Then, a
desired vision will be designed following the conventional backcasting approach.
Step 3: Backcasting analysis
In this backcasting step, it is essential to understand what, who and how needs to be changed
or reinforced in other to transform the current energy system into the desired one, as described
in the previous step. Consequently, the necessary changes will be pointed out (what), the key
stakeholders will be defined (who), and the main drivers and barriers will be identified (how).
As it was already explained in the previous step, the comparison between the BAU Scenario
and the desired vision is expected to provide additional insight on the areas where major
change is required. For instance, while some sectors or stakeholders might reach the targets
by following their current path, others might need major incentive schemes and social
changes. Consequently, this should easily highlight the areas where a more aggressive
approach needs to be adopted.
Step 4: Elaborate future alternatives & define follow-up agenda
Once it is clear that the designed scenarios comply with the sustainability criteria, the
interventions needed to achieve them will be determined, and pathways will be provided. The
energy planning literature reviewed in the previous sub-section will be highly valuable for this
step.
33. 32
Policies will be selected to support this implementation step from both the energy supply and
energy demand sides. This will be based on the selection of energy policy measures
presented in the previous sub-section, including Demand-Side Management (DSM) measures
and economic incentives for the deployment of renewable energy systems. As it has already
been pointed out, the comparison between the BAU Scenario and the desired vision is
expected to provide insight in this step by highlighting the areas where the energy policies
should be focused.
Step 5: Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up
The importance of serious follow-up efforts has often been underestimated in the past, leading
to unsatisfactory results. This step will be reinforced by energy planning and a deeper
understanding of the dynamics behind energy transitions. Follow-up proposals such as
programmed stakeholder meetings in sufficient milestones of the transition should be defined.
Finally, the proposed theoretical framework is aimed at providing a scientifically sound answer
to the main research question and the eight sub-questions, as presented in the introduction:
How can a sustainable energy supply be achieved by Galicia in 2030?
a) How is the current energy system of Galicia?
b) Who are the stakeholders involved?
c) What is the potential of different renewable energy sources, energy savings and
energy storage in Galicia?
d) What are the developments concerning sustainability in the energy system?
e) How would the Galician energy system look like in 2030 in a Business As Usual
pathway?
f) How would a desirable energy system for this region look like in 2030?
g) What kind of interventions are needed to achieve this desired future?
h) How can these interventions be feasibly planned over time?
i) What could different stakeholders do?
Novelty of this theoretical framework
While the integration of Backcasting and Sustainable Landscape Design methodologies has
already been successfully achieved by Dennis Ricken (2012), this master’s thesis aims at
continuing its research by reinforcing the implementation step with energy planning and by
providing several new additions:
First, the advantages and limitations of using Sustainable Landscape Design for
relatively extensive regions will be assessed. While Ricken’s efforts were focused on
the small Dutch island of Texel, the area of Galicia is over 60 times larger.
Secondly, the development of a Business As Usual Scenario and its comparison with
the Desired Vision are included. The prospective advantages of this addition include a
better assessment of the feasibility of the Desired Vision, and enhanced insight on the
sectors and stakeholders where major change is required, allowing for a more efficient
use of resources and policies.
34. 33
The addition of a General Morphological Analysis provides a more systematic
approach to envisioning energy futures, and facilitates the future development of
different desirable futures consistent with the logic of this master’s thesis
Additionally, energy planning provides a sound theoretical framework to understand
the underlying principles behind energy transitions. Recognizing and influencing the
current transition pathway is expected to have a significant impact in steps 4 (Elaborate
future alternatives & define follow-up agenda) and 5 (Embed results and agenda &
stimulate follow-up) of the backcasting approach.
Finally, the inclusion of energy policy facilitates an overview of all the major policy
instruments available to stimulate the implementation of renewable energy systems,
discourage the use of fossil fuels, incentivize energy users to adopt Demand-Side
Management measures, and spark change in social behaviour.
35. 34
Table 2.3. Description of the tasks that compromise the methodological framework of this
research and the complementarities between backcasting, SLD and EP (extended from
Ricken (2012) and Quist (2013)).
Step Backcasting methods/tools Description SLD EP
1Strategicproblem
orientation
Setting demands and basic
assumptions
Defining goals, constraints and targets
of research ×
System and regime analysis
Analysing the characteristics of the
energy system in the region ×
Identifying the renewable energy
potentials in the region ×
Stakeholder analysis
Identifying the stakeholders that are
involved and their interests and
influences regarding the vision
×
2Developfuturevision
Idea articulation and elaboration
Construction of BAU Scenario and a
Desired Vision by merging a systematic
approach, input from different
stakeholders, and creativity via a
General Morphological Analysis (GMA)
×
Generation of multiple perspectives ×
Creative techniques ×
Scenario elaboration Turning vision into quantified scenario ×
3Backcasting
analysis
What-Who-How analysis
Defining changes that are necessary
for achieving the desirable futures
Defining key stakeholders and their
required actions
Identifying and analysing the main
drivers and barriers
4Elaboratefuture
alternatives…
Generation of follow-agenda
Define the interventions needed to
achieve the desired visions × ×
Transition pathway
Defining a possible pathway to achieve
the constructed desirable vision × ×
5Embedresults
&stimulate
follow-up
Construct follow-up agenda and plan
the interventions over time
Dissemination of results and policy
recommendations ×
Generation of follow-up proposals ×
Stakeholder meetings ×
36. 35
3. Current energy system
An overview of the current energy system in Galicia will be presented in this section structured
around three areas. Firstly, the technical aspects of the energy supply and demand systems
will be presented. Then, the actors associated with the energy system and their interests in
the energy transition will be assessed. Finally, the factors affecting the Galician energy system
will be structured as a PESTEL analysis: Political, Economic, Social, Technological,
Environmental, and Legal factors will be analysed from the perspective of the energy system.
3.1. System
In this Sub-section, both the energy supply and the energy demand will be analysed in order
to design future visions which are coherent with the actual energy needs of the region. Most
of the figures contained in this section have been elaborated from several publications of the
Energy Institute of Galicia (Instituto Enerxético de Galicia, INEGA), particularly from one of
their publications: the Galician Energy Balance 2012 (Balance Enerxético de Galicia 2012).
Any scenario or vision described for 2030 will take these characteristics as its starting point.
3.1.1. Energy supply
The region of Galicia is currently far from self-sufficient. As it can be seen in the figure below,
only 16% of the primary energy needs of this region are currently being fulfilled by local energy
sources. Meanwhile, imports fulfil the rest -443 PJ, or 84%- of the primary energy needs.
Figure 3.1. Primary energy in Galicia in 2012 by origin.
Due to the lack of oil and natural gas reserves in the area, most of the current local energy
sources being used are renewable. While two of the thermoelectric power stations used
Galician brown lignite in the past, it was substituted by imported coal and natural gas due to
the high levels of pollution caused by the local coal (Vázquez Sola, 2007). As it can be seen
in Figure 3.2, biomass (39%), wind energy (34%) and hydropower (17%) were the main local
sources of primary energy in 2012.
84%
16%
Imported
Galicia
37. 36
Figure 3.2. Local primary energy production in Galicia in 2012 by source.
With regard to the 84% of the primary energy imported from outside of Galicia, Figure 3.3
shows that virtually all of it (99%) comes from fossil fuels. The remaining 1% are mainly
biofuels which are blended with transportation fuels in order to comply with European
directives regarding their progressive implementation in this sector.
The presence of a Repsol’s oil refinery near the city of A Coruña explains the high proportion
of imported oil crude. Oil crude accounted for 39% of the imported primary energy in 2012, or
173 PJ. This unrefined petroleum product is then used to generate a variety of products such
as kerosene, diesel oil, gasoline or butane.
Figure 3.3. Imported primary energy production in Galicia in 2012 by source.
Regarding electricity production, the mix of different energy sources diverges from the
predominance of fossil fuels which can be easily identified in the primary energy sources
mentioned above. In fact, 46% of the electricity generated in Galicia in 2012 was produced
from renewable energy sources. Wind energy (27%) and hydropower (14%) were the main
renewable energy contributors to the Galician electricity mix in 2012. However, coal still
accounted for 41% of the 108 PJ of electricity produced in the region in this year.
0%
17% 3%
39%
0%
4%2%
1%
34%
0%
Coal
Hydropower
Biomass
Biogas
Biofuels
USR
Other residues
Wind
39%
18%
27%
15%
1%
Oil crude
Petroleum products
Natural gas
Biofuels
38. 37
Figure 3.4. Electricity generation in Galicia in 2012 by source.
Coming back to the information presented in the introduction of this master’s thesis, Figure
3.5 shows how the subsidies given to wind energy in the late 1990’s and the decade of the
2000’s led to a great development of this technology in the region. The wind farms built during
these years placed Galicia and Spain at the forefront of the implementation of this technology
and left a legacy of over 3.3 GW of installed wind power.
Figure 3.5. Installed electricity generation capacity in Galicia 1976-2014 by source.
Finally, an overview of the installed energy capacity and generation in Galicia is presented in
Table 3.1 for the year 2012. Based on this information, the practical capacity factor of each
technology in this region can be readily calculated. It must be noted, however, that some of
these capacity factors do not represent the full potential of the technologies. For instance,
thermoelectric power plants running on natural gas or hydroelectric turbines are often used for
peak demand needs and they are shut down when renewable energy sources and the Spanish
nuclear power plants can fulfil the electricity demand.
4%
41%
9%
14%
2%
27%
1% 0%
1%
1%
0% Petroleum products
Coal
Natural Gas
Hydropower
Minihydro
Wind
Biomass
Biogas
USR
Other residues
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 19941996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Installedcapacity[MW]
Hydro Biomass CHP
PV USR Minihydro
Thermoelectric (coal) Thermoelectric (oil&gas) Wind
39. 38
Photovoltaic (PV) cells were responsible for only a very small fraction (<0.1%) of the electricity
generated in Galicia in 2012. The potential for solar technologies will be more
comprehensively assessed in the next section dealing with renewable energy potentials.
Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to assume that this area of Southern Europe should have
a better solar energy resource than countries with much more installed solar capacity such as
Germany.
Table 3.1. Overview of the electricity generation in Galicia in 2012.
Installed capacity
(MW)
Energy generation
(GWh/y)
Capacity factor (-)
Petroleum products 317 1104 0.40
Coal 1945 12251 0.72
Natural gas 1449 2589 0.20
Hydropower 3112 4184 0.15
Minihydro 303 614 0.23
Wind energy 3313 8059 0.28
Biomass 63 415 0.75
Biogas 11 24 0.25
USR 24 169 0.80
Other residues 111 139 0.14
Solar PV 17 17 0.11
TOTAL 10665 29565 0.32
3.1.2. Energy demand
The Galician energy demand has been divided in three types, as shown in Figure 3.6, namely
electricity, heat and transport. As a summary, the energy consumption of the region amounted
to 74 PJ of electricity, 95 PJ of heat and 105 PJ of fuels for transportation in 2012.
Figure 3.6. Energy consumption in Galicia 2012 by type.
An overview of electricity consumption by sectors is presented in Figure 3.7. The presence of
two alumina production plants in San Cibrao and A Coruña makes an important contribution
27%
35%
38%
Electricity
Heat
Transport (fuels)
40. 39
to the electricity consumption of the Galician industries. For instance, Alcoa San Cibrao has
an annual electricity demand of nearly 13 PJ (ADEGA, 2012), 17% of the total electricity
demand in Galicia.
Besides Alcoa, Grupo Ferroatlántica (iron alloys), Celsa Atlantic (steel) and PSA Peugeot-
Citröen (automotive) are some of the biggest electricity consumers among the Galician
industries. The services sector and the households were responsible for 23% and 22% of the
electricity consumption in the region in 2012, which amounted to a total of 74 PJ.
Figure 3.7. Electricity consumption in Galicia 2012 by sectors.
Regarding the transportation sector, the figure below clearly shows that it relies heavily on
fossil fuels. Diesel oil and gasolines are the main energy sources used for transportation,
mainly for cars and regional freight transport. In total, 105 PJ were used for road, sea and air
transport during the year 2012. Biofuels, electricity and LPGs remain as marginal contributors
in this picture.
Figure 3.8. Fuels used for transportation in Galicia 2012 by type.
Finally, an overview of the installed energy capacity and generation in Galicia is presented in
Table 3.2 for the year 2012.
1%
49%
2%
23%
2%
1% 22% Fishing, agriculture, mines
Industry
Services
Construction
Transport
Households
16%
68%
2%
2%
0% 0%
1%
4%
7%
Gasolines
Diesel oil
Kerosene
Fuel oil
LPG
Natural gas
Electricity
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
41. 40
Table 3.2. Overview of the energy consumption in Galicia in 2012.
Consumption (PJ)
Electricity 74
Heat from CHP 14
Heat from fuels 82
Petroleum products and coal 34
Natural gas 17
Biomass and residues 30
Solar thermal 0.1
Fuels for transportation 105
Petroleum products 98
Natural gas 0.1
Biofuels 7
TOTAL 265
3.2. Stakeholders
In this Sub-section, the most relevant actors concerning the transition towards a sustainable
energy system in Galicia will be analysed by firstly dividing them into seven groups, and then
identifying their interests in the energy transition. Having assessed the role and interests
driving each group of stakeholders is expected to provide relevant information for the
backcasting analysis and the recommendations of this master’s thesis, where the actions that
different stakeholders should perform to achieve the Desired Vision will be highlighted.
3.2.1. Financers
The significant investments associated with energy projects, often with payback periods longer
than a decade, make financers a very important group of stakeholders if an energy transition
is to be achieved. Investors, subsidy providers and banks, including the Official Credit Institute
(Instituto de Crédito Oficial, ICO), a public bank, can be tagged as financers.
The main driver behind for-profit institutions such as banks and other financers such as
venture capital firms is maximizing their profits while minimizing the risk of their investment.
Therefore, investments in sustainable energy technologies are expected to be more attractive
for this group of stakeholders when a stable and trustworthy framework for the implementation
of these technologies is provided by the government.
3.2.2. Research and knowledge institutes
A research or knowledge institute is an establishment endowed for developing science by
performing research activities. Subsequently, the main representatives of this category will be
briefly described in this sub-section.
