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- 1. Ja mach nur einen Plan … Bernd G. Wenzel
- 2. Software ProcessandSoftware Quality Part 03: Planning Prof. (FH) Dipl.-Inform. Bernd G. Wenzel
- 3. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 3 Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität Introduction Motivation Planning RequirementsManagement Design Development Test VerificationandValidation Quality Management (Software) LifecycleManagement
- 4. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 4 Planning ObservationsaboutPlans GoodPlanning PlanningFramework Conclusions
- 5. ObservationsaboutPlans The Basic Problem Human FactorsmakePlans Worse Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 5
- 6. The Basic Problem All plansarenecessarilyflawed Weplan forthefuturewhichwecannotknowfully Facets What I don‘tknow knowinglyornot What I thinkI know but don‘t Quotes Winston Churchill: Predictionsaredifficult, especiallyiftheypertaintothefuture General Tommy Franks: Even thebestwar plan doesnot survivethefirstencounterwiththeenemy Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 6 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 7. ObservationsaboutPlans The Basic Problem Human FactorsmakePlans Worse Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 7
- 8. Human FactorsmakePlans Worse(1) Wepreferbadplansin spiteofbestintentions Short termvslongtermdecsions Wemakebadshorttermdecisionsevenwhenwefullyunderstandthelongtermconsequences e. g. smoking, drinking, dieting, debt Resonant advicevsusefuladvice Weacceptexpert advice, ifitisclosetowhatweexpect, ititsoundsfamiliar Familiarityhasnothingtodo withlikelihood Military: „fightingthelast war“ Isthistheexpert adviceweneed? Simple advicevscomplicatedadvice Weprefersimple advice Nobody isinterestedin a complicatedplan asitwill becomplicatedin all thewrongways But Ifthetruthweresimple, wewouldhavefounditlongago Reality isusuallycomplicated, but complicatedplansarenot alwaysright Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 8 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 9. Human FactorsmakePlans Worse(2) Wepreferbadplansin spiteofbestintentions(cont.) Focusedattentionvsholisticattention Wefocuson theat maximumhandfulofnearthings, thethingswethinkweunderstand But theremaybethousendsofthingsinfluencingthefinal result Ourfocusmayactuallydrawattentionandeffortawayfromwhereitshouldbe But nobodycanhandle thousendsoffactorsproperly Weneedtofocuson themostrelevant ones What arethey? Weneedtolearnfromthepast Transparent planningvsnon-transparent planning Different processesdeliveringsuprisinglysimilarresults The distinguishingfactoristrust Optimism Wethinkwecanhandle morethanwecan anddon‘trealizethis Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 9 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 10. Human FactorsmakePlans Worse(3) Wepreferbadplansin spiteofbestintentions(cont.) Whishfulthinking Wanting/intendingiseasierthandoing/followingthrough Peer pressure BeingCassandra isn‘tfun Analyzingworstcasesisconsideredtobeuncooperativebybossesaswellascolleagues Brain scansdo not allowtodistinguishbetween acceptingan obviousliedue topeerpressure perceivingthethruth Socialtruth! Rational bias Weover-estimatenegative impacts toprovidea safetycushionforerror Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 10 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 11. ObservationsaboutPlans The Basic Problem Human FactorsmakePlans Worse Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 11
- 12. Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain(1) Planningissubjecttopower games HiPPOeffect Voluntarytendencytofollow theHighestPaidPerson‘sOpinion What themostpowerful personwantstohear! Not necessarilythetruth! Apple: Steve Job‘s„Reality DistortionZone“ FigleafforHiPPOs „I nevertoldthemtolietome“ Authorizationpower Reviewingplansbeforeauthorizingtheirresp. executionisgoodin principle Gatekeepers role istoensureplansmeetminimal qualitystandards isnot tochangesubstantial contentsofplans Such asresourcerequirements, targetdates, … Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 12 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 13. Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain(2) Planningissubjecttopower games(cont.) Power abuse Gatekeepers havethepower tosayNO Gatekeepers aresubjecttothesame human andpoliticalfactorsasanybodyelse Consequence: Even thebestgatekeeperswill abusepower occasionally Nogatekeeperwill admitabusingpower Weneed„cowboys“ Grace Hopper: Itiseasiertoaskforgivenessthantoaskforpermission Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 13 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 14. ObservationsaboutPlans The Basic Problem Human FactorsmakePlans Worse Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 14
- 15. ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay (1) Plans tocreatetheillusionofrationality but wecanrationalizeeverything provideditisprofitable forourselves First weuseourdistortedrealitytomakeplans thenweusetheseplanstodistortourreality Weuseplanstodisguiseourlack ofunderstandingbygoing fromwhatshouldbedone whichitat least partiallyunknown tothefullyandwellknownplan whichweknowisat least partiallywrong Byrepeatingtheplan overandoveragain–like a mantra– wewill convinceofourplan firstoursuperiors andultimatelyourselves Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 15 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 16. ThenPlans areusedin theWrongWay (2) Psychologicallyhalf empty≠ half full Loss mattersmoreforusthangain Experiment Let‘sassumeyouknowtwotherapiesforan absolutelydeadlyepedemy Selectingtherapy1 will save thelivesof35% ofthepatientstreated Selectingtherapy2 means65% ofthepatientstreatedwill die Question Which therapywouldyouchoose? Weprefertoerrthroughinaction Withdeviationfromtheplan comesresponsibility Changingtheplan isperceivedasloss unlessthevaluegainedisat least twiceasmuchasthecostofthechange Such opportunitieshavemostprobablybeenidentifiedduringtheoriginal planning Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 16 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 17. ThenPlans areusedin theWrongWay (3) Plans becomepromises wemust not change An estimatebecomesa commitment BTW This so-calledanchoringeffectofnumbersworksevenin totallyunrelatedcases andgetsworsewithmulti-tasking Wepreferplanswehavedeveloped/ contributedtoourselves The moreoursuperiorsrepeattheplan, themorewebelievein it Wedon‘twanttogiveuptheconsistencyandcertaintyprovidedbya plan evenifweknowitiswrong Planningschizophrenia Plans needtobestableandtochangeat thesame time Think ofthepoliticalspectrum Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 17 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 18. ThenPlans areusedin theWrongWay (4) Plans areusedasweapons Offensive use Superiors maybemoreinterestedin followingtheplan totheletterthanin achievingresults Micromanagement! Superiors just lovetomoveauthorityupandresponsibilitydown a hierarchy That‘swhynon-superiors arenot supportiveforplanning The blameofnot havingfollowedtheplan thengoesdown tothosedoingtheactualwork Defensive use Pretendingtohavea plan „Wefollowedtheplan“ but realitydidn‘t Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 18 ObservationsaboutPlans
- 19. ObservationsaboutPlans The Basic Problem Human FactorsmakePlans Worse Political FactorsmakePlans WorseAgain ThenPlans areUsedin theWrongWay Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 19
- 20. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 20 Planning ObservationsaboutPlans GoodPlanning PlanningFramework Conclusions
- 21. GoodPlanning Why weshouldPlan though? What isGoodPlanning? Let‘sbeLessWrong! Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 21
- 22. Why weshouldPlan though? (1) Planninghelpstoestablishcommongoals Common goalshelptoco-ordinate actions Planninghelpstoidentifyanddefineconcreteandusefultasks Concreteandusefultaskshelptocounterthebadhabitofprocrastination Planninghelpstoreflectandunderstandwhateversituationneedstobeconsidered avoidingourcave man heritageofactingbeforereflection Planninghelpstoestablish/ seethebigpicture avoidingtogetlost in just anotherlowleveltask whichisofcourseverywellunderstood Planninggivestime beforetakingdecisions Time wecanusetoconsiderobjectivesandpriorities Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 22 GoodPlanning
- 23. Why weshouldPlan though? (2) Planninggivestime beforeacting Action withouta plan isdoomedtofailure What will surelyfailweshouldn‘tdo Planninggivestime toexploreandappreciatealternatives The morealternatives weexplore, thebetterpreparedwewill befortheunexpected Carl von Clausewitz: Plans areoflittleimportance, but planningisessential Planninggivesus(theimpression/ illusionof) control (The impression/ illusionof) Control improvesourmental andphysicalhealth Planningenablesusto„flytotheMoon“ whichismorefun, moreinteresting, andlessboringthandoingdaytodaywork but also morerisky Note: wedidn‘tspeakofperfectionorsuccesshereat all! Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 23 GoodPlanning
- 24. GoodPlanning Why weshouldPlan though? What isGoodPlanning? Let‘sbeLessWrong! Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 24
- 25. What isGoodPlanning? (1) Plan asbestasyoucan, but nomore Noformal planningneeded iftotal effort< 50 personhours Ifworkforce< 5 Start withcollectingall immediatelyavailableinformation Look at easilyavailableshorttermhistory Onlywhenyou‘rethinkingyoucando betterthancopyingthecompetitionorthepast: BDUF (Big Design UpFront) ≈ 20% ofexpectedtotal effort expected ≠ hoped expected ≠ guessed expected ≠ demanded Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 25 GoodPlanning
- 26. What isGoodPlanning? (2) Limitations toplanningeffort Toomuchplanningwill wasteplanningeffortwhentheplan needstobechanged Toolittleplanningeffortwill causerisksandcreateproblemsduringplan execution The moreunknownswehave, theloosertheplanning Trade-off betweenlossescausedby plan changes realizedrisks Let‘sbelesswrong, somewherein between Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 26 GoodPlanning
- 27. GoodPlanning Why weshouldPlan though? What isGoodPlanning? Let‘sbeLessWrong! Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 27
- 28. Let‘sbeLessWrong! Observations Weall wanttoberight, nobodywantstobelesswrong Thereisonlyonefuture, weall wanttopredictthisfutureprecisely Benjamin Franklin: „Ifyoufailtoplan, yourplan will fail“ Common believe: The resultcannotbebetterthantheplan Althoughthisishuman, thisisbullshit As wehaveseen, weneedtohavea plan anyplan isnot enough a perfectplan isnot possible avoidingall theplanningpitfallsisnot possible westill cannotpredictthefuture So let‘shaverealisticexpectationsaboutourplansand Let‘strytobelesswrong Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 28 GoodPlanning
- 29. GoodPlanning Why weshouldPlan though? What isGoodPlanning? Let‘sbeLessWrong! Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 29
- 30. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 30 Planning ObservationsaboutPlans GoodPlanning PlanningFramework Conclusions
- 31. context PlanningFramework (1) Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 31 Stakeholders Opportunities haveinterestin Requirements provide IntendedResult areimpactedby fulfills Work Resources Way ofWorking contributeto do scope& constrain setuptoaddress support
- 32. PlanningFramework (2) Result Whateverwewanttoplan Stakeholders OR Havean advantageoftheresult Havea problemwiththeresult Sponsor theplanning Do theplanning Sponsor theplan execution Execute theplan Opportunities Detailedadvantagesanddisadvantagesofourresult Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 32
- 33. PlanningFramework (3) Requirements Detailedandverifiabledescriptionofwhatweknowaboutourresult Functionally Technically Organizationally Contextually … Work Everythingweneedtodo toachievetheresult consistentwiththestructureoftheresult at a reasonablelevelofdetail Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 33
- 34. PlanningFramework (4) Resources Human resources Financial resources Tools andequipment Space Time … Way ofWorking Processes Techniques Methods Methodologies … Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 34
- 35. PlanningFramework (5) Context Everythingabletocausea plan changeora plan executionrisk e. g. byimpacting intendedresult stakeholders opportunities requirements work resources wayofworking … Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 35
- 36. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 36 Planning ObservationsaboutPlans GoodPlanning PlanningFramework Conclusions
- 37. Conclusions Wecannotcreateperfect, correct, and100% preciseplans forlogicalreasons forpsychologicalreasons forpoliticalreasons Plans areusedveryoftenin thewrongwayin addition Consequentlyweshouldnot trytocreateperfect, correct, and100% preciseplans Weshoulddo expectationmanagementwithregardtoourplans, instead Weneedtosettleforplanswhicharelesswrong Weneedtogofora reasonabledegreeofdetail, takingintoaccounttherisks Ourplanningframeworkhelpsusin doingso Guidingusthroughourinformationcollectiontask Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 37
- 38. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 38 Planning ObservationsaboutPlans GoodPlanning PlanningFramework Conclusions
- 39. Rev.:2014-10-01 FH-Vorarlberg / ITM / Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität: Planning Slide 39 Softwareprozess und Softwarequalität Introduction Motivation Planning RequirementsManagement Design Development Test VerificationandValidation Quality Management (Software) LifecycleManagement