Supplementary Evidence for 081 Hearing

Benjamin Ross. Supplementary Evidence. Topic 081f – South. Page 1
In the Matter of: The Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan
Submitter: Benjamin Ross
Submission Number: 1606-4
Topics: 081 Rezoning – South – Highbrook &
Manukau City Central Business and
Industry
Evidence: Supplementary to Primary Evidence
Supplementary Evidence by Benjamin Ross,
March, 2016
Contact: Benjamin Ross
E: Ben.R001@gmail.com
www.voakl.net
Submission: 1606 – 4

Table of Contents
Summary ...............................................................................................................................................3
Introduction............................................................................................................................................5
Scope of Supplementary Evidence ...................................................................................................6
Recap of 051 – Centres Zones – The Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre proposal.............8
f. The accompanying table illustrates the similarities of the geographies of Manukau
and Parramatta...........................................................................................................................10
Table 2: Cost Impacts of Planning Rules and Regulations*................................................11
New evidence that has come to light since filing 081f Primary Evidence .................................13
Transport for growth in southern Auckland ................................................................................23
Existing transport projects.............................................................................................................23
Potential transport networks.........................................................................................................26
Aspirations for the south ...........................................................................................................26
Transport issues.........................................................................................................................26
Ideas for potential improvements to the southern transport network .................................26
Southern growth areas..................................................................................................................27
Discussion ...........................................................................................................................................43
Concluding Remarks .........................................................................................................................50

Summary
1. Per the ACDC15 V3.7 – Table 4.5 of STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF DR
JAMES DOUGLAS MARSHALL FAIRGRAY ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND
COUNCIL (ECONOMIC) the Auckland Isthmus area (roughly defined as the
old Auckland City Council area except Otahuhu) under the current Proposed
Auckland Unitary Plan is feasible for at maximum 57,000 new residential
dwellings (with most either in the City Centre or Tamaki areas). Meanwhile the
Urban South (including Otahuhu) and Rural South are currently feasible for
90,500 new residential dwellings.
2. The Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan (PAUP) Business Land, Land Demand
by Activity and PAUP Supply1
illustrated that the Metropolitan Centres in the
Urban South will not hit capacity until 20362
.
3. The Auckland Transport Alignment Program predicts at least 30km of new
residential growth to be more than 20km away from the City Centre while the
City Centre will have the largest employment growth in Auckland.
4. Auckland Transport recently went out for initial consultation with the public on
future transport options in Southern Auckland. Auckland Transport had
claimed the following:
a. New urban areas about the size of Hamilton will be built in south
Auckland during the next 30 years. This will mean approximately:
i. 50,000 new houses.
ii. 13,000 new jobs.
iii. 120,000 increase in population.
b. Transport issues
i. Predicted that 80% of morning work-trip destinations will be no
further north than Manukau and the Airport.
ii. Scale of growth will mean there is a need for stronger north-
south connections.
5. According to FURTHER STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF KYLE OLIVER
BALDERSTON ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND COUNCIL (CAPACITY AND
1
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-Summary-of-
Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis
2
Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis - Page 158

FEASIBILITY MODELLING) 2 March 2016 – Feasibility Capacity Heat Map,
ACDC v3.7 – Maximum Dwellings Scenario apart from the City Centre and
Takapuna Metropolitan Centre your aggregate for most feasible residential
dwelling capacity is either from Otahuhu south, or west of the
Waterview/Great North Road/ North Western Motorway Interchange and New
Lynn Metropolitan Centre.
6. Apart from Takapuna Metropolitan Centre none of the other nine Metropolitan
Centres were ranked highly for feasible residential development yet Auckland
Council is meant to be adopting a Centres Plus policy through the Regional
Policy Statement and the Unitary Plan.
7. Thus it results in a reconciliation issue between the Proposed Auckland
Unitary Plan, its treatment of the Manukau Metropolitan Centre, and the
desires of Auckland Transport, and submitters calling for greater
intensification especially if it leads shorter home-work commutes mitigating
against further congestion.

Introduction
8. In February I had filed my Primary Evidence to Topic 081f outlining the need
to upzone Manukau City Centre from the Metropolitan Centre zone under the
Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan to my proposed Super Metropolitan Centre
Zone.
9. My Primary Evidence to Topics 081f and 051 outlines the reasons for the
Super Metropolitan Centre.
10.At the same time I also called for the Mixed Housing Suburban Zone in the
Manukau residential area south of Manukau City Centre to be upzoned to
either Mixed Housing Urban or Terraced Housing and Apartment Zones.
11.Since my Primary Evidence for Topic 081f was filed in February further
evidence from Auckland Council, Housing New Zealand, and the Ministry for
Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) has come out in concerns to
both feasible and spatial extents of residential development in urban
Auckland.
12.In light of that further evidence I am filing this supplementary evidence to build
on my own Topic 081f primary evidence especially in relation to the Manukau
Super Metropolitan Centre proposal.

Scope of Supplementary Evidence
13.This Supplementary Evidence addresses matters presented to both Topics
080 and 081 in regards to feasible residential dwelling capacity and the spatial
extents of such capacity. Specifically I am looking at the consequences of the
Isthmus taking 23% of all feasible residential capacity growth while the urban
and rural south 37.7% of all feasible residential capacity growth.3
14.The Auckland Transport Alignment Program shows that 33% or around
248,000 extra residents living greater than 20km of the City Centre while
100,000 new jobs will be within 5km of the City Centre and some 56,000
greater than 20km away from the City Centre (13,000 in Auckland South
greenfield areas4
) (mostly the Airport complex).5
15. The PAUP (Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan) Business Land, Land Demand
by Activity and PAUP Supply stated:
a. The Metropolitan Centres in the Urban South will not hit theoretical
capacity until 20366
.
b. However, the same report also said that the greatest demand for
business land would be in the Urban South and Rural South (making
up some 45% of all demand)7
.
16.Auckland Transport has also said in its Transport for growth in Southern
Auckland that it projects no more than 80% of commuters from the Auckland
south to go further north than Manukau and the Airport. This raises concerns
that even if the spatial applications of the appropriate residential zones are
correct for Auckland south, are the respective Metropolitan Centres (Manukau
and Papakura) as well as any industrial zones in Auckland South set up to
take a greater load in employment numbers to prevent even further worsening
effects to our transport system? This supplementary evidence looks at the
Geography of that situation with our business zones in the South.
3
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/301833181/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-JD-Fairgray-Economics-REBUTTAL
Pages 18-19
4
MBIE, Regional Activity Report. 2015
5
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-Alignment-Project-Foundation-Report
Page 29
6
Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis Page 158
7
Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis page 116

17.The Supplementary Evidence focuses on Manukau City Centre – the
Metropolitan Centre rather than the residential area to the south that was also
mentioned in my 081f Primary Evidence.
18.The release of the ACDC15 excel modelling data used by the Urban Growth
Expert Conferencing Group (The 013 Group) to the Independent Hearings
Panel website was used for high level analysis testing a hypothesis of
upzoning Manukau from Metropolitan Centre to City Centre zoning and
whether feasibility capacity would theoretically increase (it did).

Recap of 051 – Centres Zones – The
Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre
proposal8
19.Recapping some key points from my 051 Centres Zone Primary Evidence:
a. “Residential Developable Capacity for Auckland. A Report on the 013 Topic
Urban Growth for the AUP Independent Hearing Panel by the 013 Expert
Group” is referenced in supporting case for the Super Metropolitan Centre
Zone.
b. Purpose of the insertion of the Super Metropolitan Centre Zone was:
i. Acknowledging Manukau and Albany’s regional importance to
Auckland and inter-regional importance to the immediate surrounding
regions (Waikato and Northland).9
ii. Facilitate Auckland Council’s desire in “Shaping a Business-Friendly
City” (see Council’s document on this at
http://www.scribd.com/doc/190821467/Shaping-a-Business-Friendly-
City ).10
iii. For the Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre; the new Objectives and
Policies acknowledging the social provisions (The Southern Initiative)
in the Auckland Plan.
c. Finally I go back to the comment from Mr Bonis (point 48.a) that I had placed
in bold: “I do not consider that a new zone of the type described is
necessary at this stage of Auckland’s development.”
d. As I see it Auckland Council needs to be very specific on two aspects of that
quote for sake of clarity now and for the future of Auckland.
i. Does the Council support the Super Metropolitan Centre Zone
concept (regardless of timing)?
ii. As for timing when would Council consider the Super Metropolitan
Centre necessary as part of Auckland’s development?
8
Primary Evidence, Ross (Topic 051 – Centres Zones)
9
Unitary Plan Submission (1606-Benjamin Ross) page 6
10
Unitary Plan Submission (1606-Benjamin Ross) page 12

e. Given that
i. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan falls short in enabling enough
capacity for residential dwellings over the life of the Plan and
ii. the potential Albany and Manukau City Centre a Super Metropolitan
Centres to not only help fulfil the realisations on the Auckland Plan but
remedy some of the development capacity shortfalls noted in this
document.

f. The accompanying table illustrates the similarities of the
geographies of Manukau and Parramatta11
:
Parramatta Manukau
Education University of Western
Sydney: 10,000
students by 2017
MIT and AUT South
campuses: 1800
FTE
12
as of 2015. 5,000
FTE by 2020
13
Arts, Culture and
Entertainment
Sydney Plan states
Parramatta to expand
arts, cultural and
entertainment
offerings
14
A more sophisticated
entertainment and retail
offer
15
. Te Papa North
campus proposed
Nearby Industrial
Complexes/Areas
Western Sydney Wiri, Airport, East
Tamaki, Highbrook,
Takanini, Drury South
Immediate
population
catchment
Western Sydney
including ‘Greater
Parramatta’
Southern Auckland
16
Knowledge
Industries:
Education, Health Health and Science,
Food and Nutrition,
Technology and
Enterprise, and Human
and Social Development
Current Transport
Infrastructure
Heavy Rail,
Motorways, Ferry, Bus
Transit Ways, Arterial
Roads
Heavy Rail, buses,
Motorways, Arterial
Roads
Future Transport
Infrastructure
Opportunities
Light Rail, improved
cycling and walking
connections
Manukau Transport
Interchange (delayed),
walking and cycling
connections especially
to Manukau Station
Place in relative City Second City Centre
complementing main
Sydney City Centre
Metropolitan Centre
under Auckland Plan
and Proposed Auckland
Unitary Plan.
Proposed for new Super
Metropolitan Centre
zone concept
11
Note the below footnotes are from my 051 – Centres Zone Primary Evidence document
12
Full Time Equivalent (Student)
13
http://voakl.net/2015/07/21/south-auckland-the-cotinued-rising-jewel-in-aucklands-crown-
betterauckland/
14
See 42.f of this document
15
See 25.c.III of this document
16
Southern Auckland defined from Otahuhu at Portage Road south to the border with the Waikato

20. I will as a reference paste in below an excerpt from the Impacts of Planning
Rules, Regulations, Uncertainty and Delay on Residential Property Development
report for the Treasury and MBIE written in December, 2014 by the Motu
Economic and Public Policy Research unit17
. The excerpt is on height rules
having possible impacts on the cost of development.
Table 2: Cost Impacts of Planning Rules and Regulations* Rule and
Regulations
Increase in Cost per Dwelling1
Apartments Subdivisions
Building height limits $18,000 to $32,000 See note 2
a. *All costs include opportunity costs in addition to direct construction costs.
b. 1) In cases where this factor is the limiting constraint.
c. 2) There was no definitive information available from the developers
surveyed on the impact of building height restrictions within the selection
of subdivisions included.
21. Intensification - height limits
a. Rules and regulations restricting the height of developments impact on
the development capacity of sites and hence on per unit costs. The
proposed unitary plan has introduced a range of height limits across the
urban area, some of which reduce the development capacity of suburban
and central city sites (as a result of new view shaft requirements).18
The
impact of height limits varies significantly across different sites. On the
sample of developments included in our analysis the impact under the
existing planning rules and regulations ranged from an increased cost per
unit of $18,000 to $32,000.
i. The impact of the height limits on the development capacity of a
site resulted in:
ii. A reduction in the number of units in a development of between
0% and 29% in suburban locations. Note, that in the example of
the development in which the capacity was reduced by 0%, it
required the developer to significantly change the design.
Achieving the same floor area required a much larger building
footprint, so reducing profitability;
17
https://www.scribd.com/doc/253323001/The-Impacts-of-Planning-Rules-Regulations-Uncertainty-and-
Delay-on-Residential-Property-Development
18
I have read the Interim guidance text for Topic 020 Viewshafts - released 17 July 2015

iii. A reduction in the desired capacity by 34% to 49% over the
economically optimal height in the CBD; and
iv. A restriction in the potential number of apartments that can be
developed on a site, particularly when height limits are combined
with view shafts. This results in a large number of potential
developments being abandoned at a very early stage of the
feasibility assessment, particularly within the central city area.
22.19
Given that per the 013 RPS Urban Growth - Expert Conference Outcome
Report - Residential Developable Capacity for Auckland report20
said that the
Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan as it stands would only allow 11%21
of the
400,000 proposed dwellings needed in the operative Auckland Plan, and that if
you look on the maps of that report (page 66 (of 69) onwards) only Takapuna
Metropolitan Centre was deemed viable or rather “ready” for residential
development. The other nine Metropolitan Centres were deemed not viable to
undertake residential construction and it has to be asked is the Proposed
Auckland Unitary Plan causing that situation?
23. Despite the ACDC15 modelling now at Version 3.7 (showing changes to
development controls and zone spatial applications) the concerns raised above are
still not in my opinion being addressed if we are to be The World’s Most Liveable
City.
19
Note the below footnotes are from my 051 – Centres Zone Primary Evidence document
20
https://www.scribd.com/doc/272429202/013-RPS-Urban-Growth-Expert-Conference-Outcome-Report-
Residential-Developable-Capacity-for-Auckland
21
Page 5 of the report as linked on footnote 42

New evidence that has come to light
since filing 081f Primary Evidence
24.Since filing my Primary Evidence to Topic 081f new evidence of relevance to
my arguments has been filed by the following agencies:
a. STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF DR JAMES DOUGLAS MARSHALL
FAIRGRAY ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND COUNCIL (ECONOMIC) - 2
MARCH 2016.
b. FURTHER STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF KYLE OLIVER
BALDERSTON ON BEHALF OF AUCKLAND COUNCIL (CAPACITY
AND FEASIBILITY MODELLING) - 2 March 2016.
c. STATEMENT OF EVIDENCE OF THE MINISTRY OF BUSINESS,
INNOVATION AND EMPLOYMENT (SUBMITTER NO. 6319) - 15
MARCH 2016.
d. JOINT STATEMENT OF REPLY OF MATTHEW ARMIN
LINDENBERG AND AMELIA JOAN LINZEY ON BEHALF OF
HOUSING NEW ZEALAND.
e. Auckland Transport Alignment Project Foundation Report by multiple
agencies chief being Auckland Transport, the Ministry of Transport and
the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA)22
.
f. PAUP Business Land, Land Demand by Activity and PAUP Supply
by23
:
i. Rodney Yeoman – Market Economics.
ii. Ting Huang – Auckland Council.
iii. Greg Akehurst – Market Economics
25.While the evidence from Fairgray and Balderston illustrate the spatial extent
of feasible residential capacity across urban Auckland, the evidence and joint
statement of reply from Housing New Zealand and the Ministry of Business
Innovation and Employment (MBIE) shows the ACDC v3.7 modelling still has
concerns and short falls with the capacity modelling.
22
Note the ATAP is not filed before the Independent Hearings Panel but is being used here as supporting
material to this document.
23
Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis

26.MBIE stated the following in their post hearing response24
:
a.
Figure 1: 081 Housing New Zealand - Capacity and Feasibility Modelling _ MBIE - (David Hermans) _ Post Hearing
Response. https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-Modelling-
MBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P.2
24
As cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046455/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-
Modelling-MBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response

b.

c.
MBIE-David-Hermans-Post-Hearing-Response P2-3

d.

27.While from Housing New Zealand25
:
a.
Figure 5 https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046454/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-Modelling-a-
Linzey-and-M-Lindenberg-Planning-Post-Hearing-Response P.6-7
25
As cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046454/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-
Modelling-a-Linzey-and-M-Lindenberg-Planning-Post-Hearing-Response

28.Evidence from Dr Fairgray showing the housing typology split26
:
a.
26
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/305046454/081-Housing-New-Zealand-Capacity-and-Feasibility-
Modelling-a-Linzey-and-M-Lindenberg-Planning-Post-Hearing-Response P18

b. On nominal value if you divide the 14,700 dwellings over the ten
Metropolitan Centre zones that is some 1,470 dwellings or roughly five
18-storey (72m) apartment towers which is not a lot for a Metropolitan
Centre under the maximum number of dwelling scenario.
29.The Auckland Transport Alignment Project illustrated the following27
:
a. 3.3. Location of Population and Employment Growth
b. The location of population and employment growth across Auckland
over the next 30 years will have a significant impact on the transport
network’s future requirements and performance. The location and
timing of growth will be driven by a number of factors including:
i. The level of development provided for by statutory land-use
planning documents (e.g. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan).
ii. The market attractiveness of development.
iii. The provision of infrastructure and services to support and
enable growth (e.g. water and transport infrastructure, schools
etc.).
iv. The locational demands of businesses and how these may
change over time.
c. Auckland Council undertakes research and modelling to enable an
understanding of where and when future growth is expected to occur.
The scenario being used by the project is based off a medium
population growth rate and reflects the direction of the Auckland Plan
by projecting an approximate split of future household growth of 60%
inside the current urban area and 40% through urban expansion.
d. The location of projected household and employment growth in
Auckland over the next 30 years is shown in the maps below, as well
as the location of future urban growth areas (shaded).
27
Cited: https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-Alignment-Project-Foundation-Report
P.28-29

e.
f. Two key growth distribution trends are highlighted in the maps above.
i. Population growth is spread throughout the Auckland urban area
and extends into major future urban growth areas to the north,
northwest and south of the existing city. Nearly a third of
population growth is projected to occur in areas beyond 20 km
of the city centre.
ii. Employment growth is highly concentrated in a few locations,
particularly the city centre, the Airport and other major
metropolitan centres. Over a third of employment growth is
projected to occur within 5km of the city centre. The growth in
service sector jobs, which often prefer to locate in major centres
to benefit from agglomeration, is a key force behind the
projected concentration of employment growth.
Figure 6: Source: Auckland Council land-use projections. https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-
Alignment-Project-Foundation-Report P.28

g. The trends are further illustrated in the graph below by comparing the
level of population and employment growth over the next 30 years
occurring in 5 km bands from the city centre.
h.
i. These projected household and employment growth trends will place
significant pressure on the transport network through longer trip
lengths, especially to major centres. The low level of growth in local
employment is also likely to make improvements in employment
access by car more challenging, as trips lengthen and become
relatively more focused towards major centres with constrained access.
Furthermore, the high value of land in major centres presents a key
challenge of providing significant people-moving capacity without using
extensive amounts of space. There are a number of uncertainties
about the rate and location of household and employment growth in the
future, particularly because the Auckland Unitary Plan, which has a
significant impact on the amount of development possible within an
area, is still under development. Furthermore, the projected location of
employment growth represents a significant centralisation of
employment, largely based on assumptions about the extent of growth
expected in business services jobs in the future.
Figure 7: Source: Auckland Council land-use projections

30. Auckland Transport would agree with such assessment made by the ATAP
and had sent the following out for initial submissions with further submissions
due again in April-May (note I have left the formatting as pulled from the
Auckland Transport website for ease of reading):
Transport for growth in southern Auckland
We want to hear your views on how transport can be integrated with new
communities in southern Auckland. The first round of consultation closed on 3
March 2016. A second round of consultation will take place in late April/early
May 2016.
Existing transport projects
A number of transport projects to support growing areas in south Auckland are already complete,
underway, nearing construction or well advanced in planning:
 Southern corridor improvements on State Highway 1.
 New public transport networks for south Auckland and Pukekohe.
 New Manukau bus station.
 Redoubt Road - Mill Road upgrade.
 Papakura park and ride upgrade.
 Pukekohe Station and park and ride upgrade.
 Drury South transport implementation.
 SH22 Crown Rd improvements.
 SH1 Waikato Expressway improvements.
 Murphy’s Rd bridge upgrade.

New localised transport improvements will be provided for special housing areas as they are
built.

Potential transport networks
New urban areas about the size of Hamilton will be built in south Auckland during the next 30
years. This will mean approximately:
 50,000 new houses.
 13,000 new jobs.
 120,000 increase in population.
Aspirations for the south
 Increase transport choice.
 Separate shorter distance trips from longer distance trips.
 Improve north-south movements.
 Improve the resilience of the network.
 Improve access to education, employment and recreation opportunities in the area.
Transport issues
 Predicted that 80% of morning work-trip destinations will be no further north than
Manukau and the Airport.
 Scale of growth will mean there is a need for stronger north-south connections.
 Lack of east-west connections in the Takanini and Drury areas.
Ideas for potential improvements to the southern transport network
This is a menu of transport ideas. A decision will need to be made on the right mix of transport
improvements to the south.
 Rapid transit between the Airport, Manukau and Botany with good connections to rail.

 Easier public transport journeys from Manukau to the south.
 Improve Takanini east-west routes.
 Increase public transport or freight provision on SH1.
 New north-south corridor between Manukau and Drury.
 Additional stations between Takanini and Pukekohe.
 Improve local connections between Papakura and Drury.
 Extend capacity and safety improvements on SH1.
 Express services on the rail corridor.
 New or improved routes from Pukekohe to SH1.
 Improve Pukekohe east-west routes.
 Improve connections to Waikato.
Additional ideas:
 More walking and cycling paths.
 More capacity on existing roads.
 New public transport routes.
Southern growth areas
Takanini
Further development around Takanini is sequenced for about 2027-31.
 469 hectares total.

 1,100 - 4,500 dwellings.
 Approx. 600 jobs.
 1 local centre.
Aspirations
 Enable a well-connected new centre to develop adjacent to Takanini East industrial area.
 Strong freight connections from Takanini industrial/ commercial area to State Highway 1
and Waikato.
 Transport choices with good walking and cycling, frequent and reliable public transport.
 Safer transport options.
Issues
 Increased safety risk and train frequency means we need to remove all level crossings in
Takanini.
 Connectivity to rail and State Highway 1.
 Providing north-south and east-west connections.
 Issues with ground stability a challenge to providing integrated transport and storm water
solutions.

Transport ideas for the Takanini area
 North-south corridor improvements: should the Mill Road corridor, marked on the map
with a navy dashed arrow, extend south to better connect the southern growth areas at
Drury and Opaheke and beyond?
 Takanini East to West connections: which east-west movements, marked with blue
dashed arrows, should be prioritised in the future? Such as:

o Rangi Rd to Mahia Rd connection.
o Walters Rd connection.
o Taka St connection.
 Potential new train station at Tironui, marked on the map with an orange and green area
around a train symbol: how important is this station to the growth area or should we
improve access to the existing Takanini station?
Drury and Opaheke
Further development around Drury-Opaheke is sequenced for about 2032-36.
Opaheke Drury future urban zone
 8000-9400 dwellings.
 1 town and 2 local centres.
Drury West future urban zone:
 6100-10800 dwellings.
 1 town and 1 local centre.
Aspirations
 Successful town centres and the area connected with public transport.

 Transport choices with good walking and cycling facilities and frequent and reliable public
transport.
 Provide improved freight connections to State Highway 1.
Issues
 Developing a resilient transport network with alternative routes.
 Improve access to these areas without making long distance travel between Auckland to
Waikato worse.

Transport ideas for the Drury area
 Potential new north-south corridor, marked on the map with navy dashed arrows:
o Should the Mill Road corridor extend south to better connect the growth areas at
Drury and Opaheke and provide an additional north-south route?
o Should another north-south corridor be provided between Drury and Papakura?

 A potential future rail station, marked on the map with an orange and green area round a
train symbol, associated with the Park and Ride at Drury has been identified. Would
another location be better?
 Potential new east-west corridor: Should future improvements to address current
capacity and safety issues be focused on SH22, marked on the map with a dashed blue
arrow, and targeted at travel times and reliability? Or should the Mill Rd corridor be
extended west to Pukekohe, marked on the map with a green dashed arrow, with SH22
improvements focused on safety and improved access?
 Should current improvements to State Highway 1, marked on the map with a red dashed
arrow, be extended to Drury or beyond? What is most important for these improvements,
a focus on travel times, reliability, safety, access or something else?
Paerata and Pukekohe
Further development around Paerata and Pukekohe is sequenced for about 2022-31.
Pukekohe future urban zone
 No new centres
Paerata future urban zone
 1 local centre.

Aspirations
 Pukekohe to expand as a successful satellite centre.
 Strong and efficient north-south connections.
 Transport choices with good walking and cycling and frequent and reliable public
transport.
 Provide efficient freight connections to State Highway 1.
Issues
 Providing strong connections to Waikato.
 Managing increasing pressure on State Highway 22.
 Increasing capacity and efficiency of the passenger rail network
 Improving access to this area without making long distance travel between Auckland and
Waikato worse.

Transport ideas for the Pukekohe area
 A potential rail station (including park and ride) at Paerata has been identified, marked on
the map by a train symbol with a green and orange area around it. How important is this
station to the growth area?
 East-west corridor improvements:

o Is there a need to provide a Pukekohe bypass and upgrade to Pukekohe East
Road to State Highway 1, marked on the map by a red dashed arrow, to improve
business and freight movements?
o Increased safety risk and train frequency means that we may need to reduce the
number of rail crossings and provide bridges over rail in Paerata, marked on the
map by an orange dashed arrow. Where are the key areas for potential future
east-west crossings in Paerata?
 Improved connection to Drury and SH1:
o Should future improvements to address current capacity and safety issues be
focused on State Highway 22, marked on the map with a blue dashed arrow, and
targeted at travel times and reliability?
o Or should the Mill Rd corridor, marked on the map with a green dashed arrow be
extended west to Pukekohe, with State Highway 22 improvements focused on
safety and improved access?
 Electric trains to Pukekohe: Planning is underway for extending electric trains from
Papakura to Pukekohe. Beyond this south of Pukekohe could be serviced by bus or rail.
Would there be sufficient demand to extend rail services to the northern Waikato growth
areas (Tuakau, Pokeno and beyond)?
Source: https://at.govt.nz/projects-roadworks/transport-for-future-urban-
growth/transport-for-growth-in-southern-auckland/

31. Some key highlights from the PAUP Business Land, Land Demand by
Activity and PAUP Supply Report to the IHP2829
:
a.
Figure 8: PAUP Business Land Supply - Summary. Page 28
28
Cited (summary version): https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300248/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-
Land-Summary-of-Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Summary-Results
29
Cited (main version): https://www.scribd.com/doc/305300249/081a-Ak-Cncl-General-PAUP-Business-Land-
Summary-of-Land-Demand-by-Activitiy-and-PAUP-Supply-Further-Analysis

b.
Figure 9: PAUP Business Land Supply. Page 34.

c.
Figure 10: PAUP Business Land Supply. Page 28

d.
Figure 11: PAUP Business Land Supply. Page 43

e.
Figure 12 PAUP Business Land Supply. Page 44

32.In short the information from the ATAP report, MBIE, Housing New Zealand,
PAUP Business Land Report and Auckland Transport consultation information
illustrates a mismatch between spatial spread of housing (37.4% in the South)
and employment (City Centre and to a smaller extent the Airport complex).
33.This mismatch will:
a. Cause Auckland Transport to miss its 80% of southern commuters
going no further than Manukau City Centre and Airport Projections.
b. Cause even worse congestion on the roading network (especially the
Southern Motorway) as people travel into the Isthmus from the South
for employment.
c. Lower quality of life and productivity from that congestion issue
mentioned above:
Figure 13: Source: http://voakl.net/2016/01/13/auckland-plan-implementation-annual-update-2015/

Discussion
34.Bearing in mind the above I have used the Council ACDC modelling which is
available from the IHP website to test a theory to see whether lifting Manukau
out of the Metropolitan Centre Zone into the City Centre would boost
feasibility capacity for Manukau.
35. For reference this is the Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre area in question:
Figure 14: Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre Zone extent
36.According to the ACDC v3.7 modelling Manukau Metropolitan Centre had a
feasibility capacity of 12%30
compared to 19% average for the other
Metropolitan Centres31
.
37.Upzoning the Manukau Metropolitan Centre Zone area using the ACDC v3.7
modelling to the City Centre Zone (as a theoretical test run) moved the
feasible capacity from 12% to 24%. The upzoning to City Centre Zone
increased the nominal quantity of residential dwellings 35% from 1,444 and
1,955. Dwelling prices also increased 7% which in itself is not a bad thing
while size of dwellings drops some 21m2 or 14% again which for a large
proposed Super Metropolitan Centre like Manukau is not a bad thing either
30
Manukau Metropolitan Centre was rated as LOW in the Sales Location Group category
31
Difference between the Low and Regional Sale Point Categories in the ACDC modelling runs

(as it means more dwellings to a set area and a larger residential population
base)32
.
32
See Paragraphs 38-39

38.The table and charts from the ACDC model run I ran can be seen below33
:
a.
33
See for full picture: https://www.scribd.com/doc/299727084/Auckland-Transport-Alignment-Project-
Foundation-Report

b.

c. While Manukau City Centre is proposed for the Super Metropolitan
Centre Zone (which is proposed to be in between in the current
Metropolitan Centre and City Centre Zones) it can be surmised that the
modelling numbers would be about half way in between those two
existing zones.
39.Manukau City Centre does have the commercial side given it is a Centre and
under a business zone but focus also needs to be on the residential capacity
side. This is because if we cannot attract a decent home residential base in
Manukau City Centre then trying to attract businesses (regardless of
Manukau’s connectivity by road, bus and train) which would result in kicking
off the agglomeration affects (that the main City Centre benefits from) would
be a futile effort. Remembering that (from former Auckland Council Property
Limited now Panuku Development Auckland)34
:
a. Primary Centres
i. While there is some debate about whether Auckland
legitimately has two or three Primary Centres, the
conclusion of this report is that there are two centres – one
to the South (Manukau) and one to the North (Albany).
These Primary Centres fundamentally complement the City
Centre in servicing core parts of the region, and reflect the
linear geography of Auckland.
b. 3.1 Manukau
i. Manukau has traditionally been a strong area and has
developed into a major Primary Centre extensively servicing
South Auckland.
ii. It would benefit from the overview of the City
Transformation Unit. The commitment and focus this brings
is beneficial. It sends a signal to the market that Council is
committed to continuing investment in order to strengthen
Manukau.
34
http://voakl.net/2016/03/21/unitaryplan-business-zone-capacity-study-interesting-lacks-human-geography-
element/ . Also Evidence (Primary). Benjamin Ross. Topic 051. Paragraph 25. Pages 15-17.

c. The key issues Council should focus on are:
i. The significant opportunity the new rail link to Manukau City
Centre will provide. This should further boost the preference for
office location in this area.
ii. Opportunities to improve the walkability of the Centre and in
particular to connect the rail station to the Centre.
iii. A more sophisticated entertainment and retail offer.
iv. The need to promote a residential base within Manukau City
Centre. It is this mix of office and residential use which will give
Manukau a 24-hour urban lifestyle.
v. It is recognised that the reverse sensitivity aspects of the airport
flight path do complicate residential opportunities.
vi. Support the social policy initiatives and approach reflected in the
broader Manukau Community and the opportunities the
Manukau City Centre derives to support these policies.
40.Thus some of the key reasons for the Super Metropolitan Centre are the
following:
a. Reducing commutes up the Southern Motorway and Southern rail Line
through the Otahuhu-Mt Wellington bottleneck (thus achieving
Auckland Transport’s no further than 80% going further north than
Manukau).
b. Reduction in such long commutes would benefit productivity (less
people being strung up from the long commute).
c. Physical environmentally beneficial if congestion can be mitigated by
the above.
d. Better for our mental health again owing to mitigation against long
commutes.
e. Open up accessibility to high paying and knowledge jobs to the South
which does feel the effects of higher social deprivation.
f. Required infrastructure investment could be reassigned elsewhere if
long commutes are cut down and higher concentrations of employment
are provided closer to home.

g. Both the South and Isthmus cooperate with each specialising out to
demands and needs.
h. The South evolves its heart (Manukau City Centre) to their social
identity and demands to that identity (the South affiliates with Manukau
more than the main City Centre).
i. Realisation of MBIE’s aspirations shown in the pictures above (to of
benefit to the people of the South and to both the Auckland and
national Economy).
j. Sending a clear market signal that Auckland Council alongside Panuku
Development Auckland that major investment into the Manukau Super
Metropolitan Centre is both attractive and viable through the life of the
Auckland Plan.

Concluding Remarks
41.Since the filing of my Primary Evidence to Topic 081f new substantial material
has come to light from various public sources that should be considered by
the Independent Hearings Panel in regards to the rezoning of the Manukau
Metropolitan Centre to the proposed Manukau Super Metropolitan Centre.
42.According to reports and comments from NZTA, Auckland Transport, MBIE,
Housing New Zealand, and the Council’s PAUP Business Land report to the
IHP 33% of population growth will be more than 20km from the City Centre
(most to the Urban and Rural South) while the demand for business land is
concentrated to the City Centre (commercial) and Urban South (industrial).
43.This mismatch between spatial locations of key residential and employment
areas will have negative effects on:
a. Quality of Life.
b. Productivity.
c. Transportation network especially at key choke points.
d. Physical Environment.
44.While the Auckland Plan and Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan have 10
Metropolitan Centres listed the Manukau Metropolitan Centre was mooted as
a Super Metropolitan Centre through my submission points on wider
Geography grounds, those grounds are mentioned in Paragraph 40.
45.The Super Metropolitan Centre is never designed to compete nor replace the
main City Centre, it is designed to complement and accommodate the
geography of Auckland’s largest and fastest growing sub-region – the Urban
and Rural South.
46.The ACDC15 modelling that I ran while “high-level” upzoning the Manukau
Metropolitan Centre Zone to the City Centre (then back calculating for the
Super Metropolitan Centre zone) it did show feasible capacity for residential
development in Manukau went from 12% (under the Metropolitan Centre
Zone) to 24% (City Centre Zone) or around 18% for Super Metropolitan
Centre zoning.
47.The ACDC15 modelling also showed an increase in dwelling supply (while
dwellings would be smaller thus more efficient land footprint wise) and
increase in dwelling and floor space price. This is not necessarily a bad thing

given residential development inside the Super Metropolitan Centre could
possibly reflect a similar geography like the City Centre in the form of the
premium of agglomeration and higher amenity that agglomeration gives. That
said if residential dwelling supply feasibility is increased inside Manukau the
chances of “affordable” accommodation could be higher as well.
48. Drawing from Final Remarks of my 051 Centres Zones Primary Evidence35
a. Finally I go back to the comment from Mr Bonis (point 48.a) that I had
placed in bold: “I do not consider that a new zone of the type
described is necessary at this stage of Auckland’s development.”
b. As I see it Auckland Council needs to be very specific on two aspects
of that quote for sake of clarity now and for the future of Auckland.
i. Does the Council support the Super Metropolitan Centre Zone
concept (regardless of timing)?
ii. As for timing when would Council consider the Super
Metropolitan Centre necessary as part of Auckland’s
development?
c. Given that
i. the Proposed Auckland Unitary Plan falls short in enabling
enough capacity for residential dwellings over the life of the
Plan and
ii. the potential Albany and Manukau City Centre a Super
Metropolitan Centres to not only help fulfil the realisations on the
Auckland Plan but remedy some of the development capacity
shortfalls noted in this document.
Benjamin Ross
March 22, 2016
35
Evidence (Primary). Benjamin Ross. Topic 051 Paragraphs 56-58. Page 47

Supplementary Evidence for 081 Hearing

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