Analyses Florida state in terms of Climate Perils for past 60 years.

1. 60 Years of Climate to Florida
Data source: NOAA
Author: Avaneesh Kumar
Smart Underwriters always try to minimize the property risk by evaluating a number of
parameters. Climate and Weather are the essential elements of Insurance Underwriting
decisions, For Instance - An area which has received a large number of hailstorms in the past
is likely to receive them in future as well, indicates that the risk of claims due to hail storms is
higher. Similarly, If insurance companies are aware of the parameters of properties which are
affected by a tornado, they can selectively choose the properties for insurance/reinsurance
which can withstand the effects of a tornado.
In this report, we discuss the stories unearthed from the analysis of past 60 years of climate
storms - Hail, Winds, and Tornados data. This report provides the information such as - the
areas - city, state, zip codes which got hit by storms in maximum number, The perils which are
linked with maximum loss and fatalities, The time period which receives the maximum number
of storms and filed maximum property claims.
The entire data is obtained from NOAA official sources. The data was cleaned and further
enriched with new information such as exact latitudes, longitudes along with the parsed and
precise addresses. The summary stats of data are presented in the following table:
Peril Records - Entire US Records - Only Florida
Wind 393,486 10,296
Hail 335,840 4,859
Tornado 62,208 3,288

2.
The Storms Timeline
Though there seems to exist a data leak during the initial years from 1950-1985, the relative
stats shows that the frequency of WindStorms is highest followed by Hails and then Tornados.
Though the frequency of Tornadoes is low but the total cost related to its property damage is
very high making the claims filed by Tornados as the most severe and costly perils.
Action Items: ​Insurance companies should ​use external data sources to shift from a reactive
model to a proactive model by investing in real-time risk and yield management. Use of
telematics and real-time sensor data within the operations and work flows should be
encouraged to help manage the business more effectively, underwrite risk, compress time
lags, and reduce claims activity/processing

3.
The Storms Time Periods
As suggested by the data, these perils occur throughout the year but the months of June - July
receives the maximum number of storms in Florida specifically from Winds and Hails.
Insurance Companies can exploit this information and may avoid writing new policies before
the months of severe storms. They can combine the time-related information with other
attributes to make their decisions wiser.
An increasingly useful data source is “macro” environmental information such as geocoding,
satellite imagery, census, building code, natural catastrophe, environmental and climate data.
When integrated with a carrier’s own data (such as risk penetration and geographic footprint),
the resulting insights can proactively identify significant existing or potential risk concentration
threats, and support a portfolio management approach to managing risk and profitability.
These insights may be less obvious at the individual transaction level but can help to uncover
deep and potentially destabilizing ripple effects well ahead of an actual loss event.

4.
Area Wise Distributions
The data suggest that Duval County (799) which lies in the East side of Florida and
Hillsborough (787) and Polk (692) Counties which lies in the West side of Florida have
witnessed the maximum number of storms. Due to a large number of these storms, the total
loss incurred by them is also highest.

5.
Snapshot of WindStorms
Florida has witnessed Windstorms throughout history, but the number of storms has increased
significantly (​4,187, 41%​) in the last 10 years. According to the Saffir-Simpson scale,
Windstorms become Hurricanes when the Magnitude (in knots) becomes 100+. The overall
average magnitude of windstorms in the past 60 years is about 60 knots which is just less than
the Category 1 hurricanes, while it has often reached the magnitude of about 90 knots which is
the average magnitude of Category 3.
Areas affected by Wind Storms

6. County Wind Storms Average Magnitude
Duval 497 39.08
Leon 456 41.60
Hillsborough 380 22.02
Marion 331 33.78
Alachua 325 32.15
In Duval County​, ​the cities Jacksonville ​(112, 23 %) and ​Urban Core ​(88, 18 %) were hit in
maximum numbers. The Street named ​Frazier St has shown to be the maximum hit in these
cities. Similarly, ​Tallahassee ​(315, 69 %) in Leon county and ​Dog Lake Tower Rd was affected
the most however but the impact is mostly distributed in the whole city. ​Tampa (88, 23 %) and
Northwest Tampa ​(52, 13 %) are the cities with the most count, specifically Marie Antoinette Ct
in Tampa and W Virginia Ave in Northwest Tampa in Hillsborough County. ​Ocala ​(97, 29 %)
and ​Historic District ​(54, 16 %) in Marion County are the areas with the most count and also SE
47th Ave in Ocala is the street with the most number of counts. SE 2nd Ave in ​Gainesville ​(165,
51 %), ​Alachua counties​ are the streets and cities with the most count in this county.
While comparing the total loss caused by Wind Storms, the following areas have garnered
maximum.
1. Leon County (935, 7%)
2. Hillsborough County (661, 5%)
3. Polk County (496, 3.4 %)
4. Escambia County (481, 3.3 %)
5. Santa Rosa County (460, 3.2 %)
Miccosukee Rd in ​Tallahassee City ​(585, 62 %) is the street and city with most loss in history in
Leon ​County, whereas ​Governor's Walk ​(121, 13%) is the city with second-most wind loss.
Northwest Tampa (​114, 17%​) and ​Tampa​(​101, 15%​) has the highest sum of loss_rating,
specifically in ​W Virginia Ave in Northwest Tampa and Theresa Arbor Dr in Tampa with the
highest sum of loss in streets in ​Hillsborough County. ​Lakeland (116, 23%) and ​Winter
Haven​(73, 15%) where E Park St and Ave B SE are the respective streets in the cities of Polk
County. N Spring St in Downtown (118, 25% ) and ​Pensacola city ( 83, 17 %) is the most
impacted street and city in Escambia County. ​Milton city ​(​227, 49%​) and specifically ​Russell
Harber Rd​ is the street most impacted in Minton City in ​Santa Rosa County​.

7. Years 2015, 2011, 2016, 2014 had the highest wind_count value which suggests that
windstorms are increasing with increasing years. But, the maximum loss was in years 2000,
1998, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2012 so loss has reduced due to better construction practices and
lesser variance​ in speed (data suggests).
Action Items -
- Approximately 85% of all windstorm-related insurance claims are due to roof damage
so a thorough inspection of roof builds quality, material type, age of a roof (if
reconstructed), age of the house, the shape of roof etc.
- May ask homeowners to purchase separate windstorm insurance to provide coverage
for damages in the riskiest areas(maximum loss areas specific).
- Houses should be categorised on some prerequisites or rated ​on the basis of this list
during risk profiling and underwriting or build a model that can do this for the business.
- Offer a discount if certain risk mitigation techniques or investment has already been
made by the property owner against wind damage.
- Grouping together areas of similar risk by peril, to allow underwriters and managers to
overlay their portfolio of business and streamline decision making for future risk
allocation.
Key Tips to minimize the Wind Damage
- Trim back tree branches to prevent fallen limbs.
- Secure window shutters to defend against debris.
- Tie-down anything that could fly away and hit the siding or the roof.
- If the siding is looking worse for wear, have a siding professional come out to repair it.

8.
Snapshot of HailStorms
Florida suffers from more thunderstorms than any other state in the US due to its geographical
location and also suffers from a lot of hurricanes which in turn gives rise to tornadoes and
which favours the formation and movement of hail clouds. The movement of clouds takes
place towards the low-pressure areas, areas which are relatively hotter ​(central part of Florida)​.
- ​refer link for better understanding
The freezing level in a Florida thunderstorm is so high; hail often melts before it reaches the
ground. Even though hail is not common to the state, there have been about a dozen events of
the hail of over 3 inches being reported in Florida. Although hail events have decreased in the
last 10-15 years, research (data) shows the hail size has increased causing more damage than
before to crops, cars, roofs and in severe cases, fatality.
Action Items
- In the high risk, areas focus more on homes with better roof material, clear outdoors,
Window material, shingles and other, charge according to the risk profiling.
- Similarly, charge a higher premium from high-risk areas.
- Increase the deductibles so less number of people file for claims.
- Live update to the insurance holders is a safety precaution that can also help the
company reduce claims and damage to the property

9. Areas affected by Hailstorms
County Hailstorms Maximum Size (inches)
Hillsborough County 273
2.75
Duval County 237
2.75
Polk County 236
4.50
Orange County 225
3.00
Miami-Dade County 217
4.00
Hillsborough County, ​in central west Florida, faced maximum Hail-Storms, specifically, streets
named ​W Virginia Ave in ​Tampa city (​109, 40%​) and ​N Larry Cir street in ​Brandon city (​35, 13
%) had the highest count of hails in Hillsborough County. Likewise, ​Jacksonville city (​221,
93.248 %​) ​has the highest hail events where Frazier St is the street with the highest hails in
Jacksonville, Duval County. Lakeland (​74, 31 %​) ​is the city with the highest hails where the
street with maximum hails is E Park St in Polk County. E Amelia St in ​Orlando​(143, 63%) is
the street in city and city respectively with highest hail events in ​Orange County​.
SW 4th Ave street in ​Miami city(​79, 36%​)​, ​Miami-Dade County has the highest number of hail
events.
Loss due to Hail Storms represented a slightly different story, top countries with most of the
loss are -

10. Polk County (​74, 13 %​), Orange County (​48, 8 %​), Hillsborough County (​27, 5%​), Marion
County (​21, 4%​), Lake County (​20, 3 %​)
Lakeland (​26, 35 %​) and Lake Wales (​18, 24 %​) has the highest sum_loss_rating in Florida
according to data where ​Lake Wales has higher mean_loss_rating in ​Polk County​.
Furthermore, ​E Park St in Lakeland and S Lakeshore Blvd in Lake Wales has the highest
sum_loss_rating. Similarly, ​E Amelia St is the street with the highest loss_rating in ​Orlando
city (​37, 77%​) which has the highest sum_loss_rating in ​Orange County​. ​Tampa(​12, 40.0 %​)
and Brandon(​6, 20.0 %​) are the cities with the highest loss due to hail, specifically, ​W Virginia
Ave and N Larry Cir are the streets with highest sum_loss_rating in ​Hillsborough County​.
Ocala(​5, 23 %​) and Silver Spring(​5, 24 %​) are the cities and Wenona Ave and ​NE 14th Street
Rd in the respective cities have the highest loss due to hail. ​Tavares(​11, 55.0 %​) ​in the city and
Lake Dora Dr​ is the street name where maximum loss due to hail occurred.
According to years and occurrence pattern in Hailstorms (year) -
1992, 1991, 1996, 1999 and 2005 are the years with maximum hail loss-rating i.e. loss due to
hail. Thus, ​hailstorm events have decreased​ with an increasing year in last few years i.e.
1999, 2003, 2001, 1998 and 2007 had the highest number of hail_stroms.
- There is a different pattern between 1985 to 2000 (from the data)
- Average wind speed has been constant for the last 6-7 years but higher than before.
- Lesser number of hail events than wind events in mostly each month.
- Max_wind_loss occurs in the month’s May, June, July & August.
Hail_size showed an upward inclination with increasing ​average mean temperature in various
parts in the US, whereas the events of hail have reduced with the passing year for the last 10
years. Hail events are dependent on windstorms and thunderstorms. Further References - ​Hail
Size​, ​Hail-case-study​ & ​Average Temperature
Action Items (Minimise the Hail Damage)
● Install wind shutters designed to defend against high winds and hail.
● Purchase & install pressure or high impact windows.
● Secure doors with heavy-duty bolts at the top and bottom of the door frame.
Hail can cause damage to many parts of the home, but it most commonly hits the roof the
hardest. A damaged shingle, in particular, can allow water to get through to the roof deck and
cause harm to the ceiling and support beams. This will eventually lead to more leaks in the
roof, stains on the ceiling and walls, and potential flooding. The cost to repair a roof following
such damages will be expensive, but holding off could lead to even more costly repairs down
the road. It’s best to perform repairs as quickly as possible. The two types of repairs one might
be faced will include: Asphalt and Other Singles (Wood, Metal, Tile)

11. Snapshot of Tornadoes
Truly destructive tornadoes are most frequently reported in Florida during the spring and
summer; the most powerful usually strike in spring. Tornadoes develop from severe
thunderstorms. They are usually preceded by very heavy rain and/or large hail. A thunderstorm
accompanied by hail indicates that the storm has large amounts of energy and may be severe.
In general, the larger the hailstones, the more potential there is for damaging winds and/or
tornadoes. The most violent tornadoes are capable of tremendous destruction with wind
speeds of 250 mph or more.
Damage paths have exceeded the width of one mile and 50 miles long. Tornadoes generally
move from southwest to northeast but have also been recorded travelling in any direction. The
forward speed of a tornado varies from 30 mph to 70 mph. ​What triggers a tornado is still not
altogether clear. Tornadoes spawn inside clouds when there is great turbulence and winds of
various speeds and velocities come in contact with one another. Although there is uncertainty
about the triggers, meteorologists are able to identify atmospheric conditions conducive to
tornadic activity. ​tornado florida​ - ​better overview
Action Items
- Implement a geographic information system(GIS) to more efficiently respond to natural
events through risk analysis, real-time events monitoring, and aligned optimized
response, better understand and plan for catastrophes and assign claim adjusters and
response teams where they will likely be needed most based on historic trends.
- As there is no specific reason for tornado’s activation(only hurricane and thunderstorm),
prior knowledge provided to customer can help him and the company reduce claims.

13. Areas affected by Tornados
County Tornados
Average Magnitude
(Fujita Scale)
Average Loss
Palm Beach 167 0.38 2.04
Polk 160 0.45 3.03
Pinellas 134 0.58 3.41
Hillsborough 134 0.529 3.24
Miami-Dade 134 0.298 1.88
In Palm Beach County, ​West Palm Beach (​26, 16 %​) and ​Belle Glade (​23, 14 %​) in ​Palm Beach
County are the cities with highest tornado events and more specifically, ​Monroe D​r in West
Palm Beach and ​SW 1st St in Belle Glade are the streets with highest tornado events.
Correspondingly, ​Lakeland city (​42, 26 %​) in which E Park St stree​t has the highest tornado
events in ​Polk County​. ​St. Petersburg(​39, 29 %​) and Largo city (19, 14 %) in ​Pinellas County
have suffered the highest tornado hits in which ​27th St S and 4th Ave NW in respective cities
have the highest count of tornados. ​Tampa(​62, 46 %​) in ​Hillsborough County has the highest
tornado count, in which ​W Virginia Ave in Tampa has the highest Tornado strikes. ​SW 4th Ave
in Miami city​ (57, 43 %) has faced maximum tornados in ​Miami-Dade County​.
All the top 5 counties are in southern Florida and near the higher heat zone, plus the
hurricanes mostly hit the southern part of Florida and tornadoes are an aftereffect of
Hurricanes in these areas.

14. When considering total loss as a parameter for comparison, top counties suffering most
damage are -
Palm Beach County​ (167, 5%)
Polk County​ (160, 4.8%)
Hillsborough County ​(134, 4%)
Miami-Dade County​ (134, 4%)
Pinellas County​ (134, 4%)
West Palm Beach (​26, 16 %​) and ​Belle Glade (​23, 13%​) in ​Palm Beach County are the cities
with highest tornado loss and more specifically, Monroe Dr in West Palm Beach and SW 1st St
in Belle Glade are the streets with highest tornado loss. ​Lakeland city (​42, 26%​) in which E
Park St stree​t has the highest tornado events in ​Polk County​. ​St. Petersburg(​39, 29 %​) and
Largo city (19, 14 %) in ​Pinellas County have suffered the highest tornado hits in which ​27th St
S​ and​ 4th Ave NW​ in respective cities have highest losses due to tornadoes.
Tampa(​62, 46%​) in ​Hillsborough County has the highest tornado count, in which ​W Virginia
Ave in Tampa has the highest count. ​SW 4th Ave in Miami city (57, 42 %)has faced maximum
tornados in ​Miami-Dade County​.
1997, 1998, 2004, 1975 and 1995 are the years with maximum Tornado counts. Similarly, 1997,
1998, 1983, 1979 and 1975 are the years in which maximum tornado loss occurred and also
1998 has maximum injuries and fatalities with mean_loss_rating above 4.5 were assigned an
F4 rating but later reduced to F3.
But with time the count and loss due to Tornados and decreased as is evident from the Data.
Action Items (To reduce the Tornado damage)
Tornado damage occurs following high winds from blowing debris. While we can’t do a lot to
prepare for a tornado, it helps to trim tree branches back on the roof and windows. We can
also reinforce the roof to better handle high winds:
● Shake roof​: Add more nails.
● Slate roof​: Seal down with cement.
● Tile roof​: Place a steel strap over the tiles.
● Asphalt roof​: Nothing can be done, but inspect after.
Invest in a storm cellar, which is built underground and allows great defence against high
winds during a tornado. A storm shelter is built close to the home so it is easy to access during
a tornado and doesn't have to run far for safety. A storm cellar door is built at an angle so that
debris blows over the door. This allows for debris to roll over the door rather than trap it, so
one can get in and out easily. The confines of a storm cellar for a family is around 8 by 12 feet
with an arched roof. It’s made of cement blocks and rebar to ensure maximum defences.

15.
The combined maximum loss in Top 5 years.
Year Hail Tornado Wind Total
1998 17 379 1161 1557
2000 14 192 1203 1409
1999 37 181 1159 1377
1993 33 247 662 942
1995 24 289 625 938
Significant tornado events (evident from the data also)
1966, 04 : ​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Tampa_tornado_family
1958, 04 ​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Colfax,_Wisconsin,_tornado_outbreak
2004, 09 ​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ivan_tornado_outbreak
1997-1998: ​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Kissimmee_tornado_outbreak
“The tornadoes were strong due to an abnormally strong ​jet stream with warm, humid air out
ahead of the ​cold front​. This is common in the ​El Niño phase of the ​El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) during the Florida dry season (November 1 - April 30).​[5]
During El Niño the
jet stream is typically stronger and further south near or over Florida in the winter and spring.
This greatly increases the odds that conditions will be favourable for strong tornado
development.” ~Wikipedia
The Phases of ​March to September are the months with most events occurring, Tornadoes
with higher damage capacity happen when there was an event of hurricane or thunderstorms
in the area.

16. Last 20 years in Florida
Wind Snapshot
Storm
Saffir-Simpson
Category
Date of
landfall
Year
Landfall
Intensity
(in ​knots​)
Landfall Location
Charley 4 August 13 2004 130
Cayo Costa​ (1st landfall)/
Near ​Punta Gorda​ (2nd
landfall)
Ivan 3 September 16 2004 105 Near ​Gulf Shores, AL​*
Jeanne 3 September 26 2004 105 Hutchinson Island
Dennis 3 July 10 2005 120 Santa Rosa Island
Wilma 3 October 24 2005 120 Cape Romano
Irma 4 September 10 2017 130
Cudjoe Key​ (1st landfall)/
Marco Island​ (2nd landfall)
~​ source - Wikipedia

17. Hail Snapshot
https://www.weather.gov/media/mlb/surveys/record_hailstorms.pdf
Date Area Size Total Estimated Loss
1996, Lake Wales, Polk County 3 $24 mn.
1992, March 6th Orlando, Orange County 3.4 to 4 $60 mn.
This is still the costliest Florida
hailstorm on record.
1992, 25t March Orlando, Orange County 3.5 Causing around $40 mn.

18. Tornado Snapshot
Date Fujita Killed Injuries Information
2/22/1998 3 25 150
The deadliest tornado of the outbreak was a category F3, that
touched down initially 1 mile south of Intercession City
2/22/1998 3 13 36
The tornado initially set down near Longwood and moved northeast
at 45 mph. The tornado passed through several neighbourhoods in
the southeast portion of Sanford, killing 12 people in mobile homes
and injuring 70
2/2/2007 3 13 51
The storm that produced the Lady Lake tornado re-intensified and
produced a second F3 tornado in a rural area to the west-southwest
of Paisley
2/2/2007 3 8 25
The ¼-mile-wide F3 tornado moved across the Lady Lake area,
killing 8 people and injuring 10. The tornado damaged 180
residences and destroyed 101. All of the fatalities occurred in mobile
homes
4/19/1988 3 4 18
A tornado moved from just southwest of Madison to 11 miles
east-northeast of Madison. Seventeen homes were destroyed and
more than 30 homes were damaged