Intelligence Briefing Goes into the real reasons why violence against women and specifically Rape has been increasing in India

1. INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING
Rising Rape in India … Why is it happening and how do we fix the problem
By Ashish Puntambekar
The Nataraja Foundation, Mumbai
26
th
Aug ‘ 2013
Executive Summary
This study by the Nataraja Foundation reveals that POOR TEACHER QUALITY in India
is the fundamental reason behind the huge rise in violence against women, including
Rape.
The Foundation's view is that Rapes are rising mainly because just 46 % of teachers in
India today have studied beyond class XII. In Bihar, where most of the Dec 16 ‘ 2012,
Delhi Rapists came from, just 21 % of teachers have studied beyond class X
( class ten ). This situation is radically different, in terms of teacher quality, from that
which existed just 25 – 30 years back. Today, as young people make career choices
driven by economic rationale, the worst qualified, with no-where else to go are
becoming teachers. It follows therefore that Poor Teacher Quality will have a devastating
impact, going forward, on all aspects of national life from social values ( respect for
women ) to GDP growth to national defence preparedness.
To solve this Macro problem, it is critical to rapidly improve teacher quality in India.
Several proposals to this end have been on the Education Ministers / Prime Ministers

2. desk for the last 4 - 5 years, the largest and most innovative being " The Indian Education
Megaproject " ( http://www.nataraja.org.in/masseducationproject.htm ). The Education
Megaproject is specifically designed to vastly improve Teacher Quality while
simultaneously solving the chronic shortage problem in secondary school capacity
( There is a shortage of over 5,00,000 secondary Schools across the country according
to the planning commission’s XIth plan document ). This means that millions of kids are
dropping out of school after class IV, each year, as there are no schools to go to. Even
more frightening it means that 150 million children have already been victims of this
shortage in secondary school capacity … in our view.
As most of these young people are un-employable, crime of all types ( not necessarily
rape ) is expected to rise rapidly by 2018 as tens of millions of young men who have had
no secondary education are about to enter the job market in an economic environment
where there are no Jobs.
The Nataraja Foundation estimate is that rapes could rise between 200 - 300 % in India
by 2018 and the next Govt in Delhi could collapse just because they would be unable to
control the problem. This is therefore going to get much worse before it gets any better
… in our view.
This six page intelligence briefing investigates the core reasons for rising rape in India
and specifically identifies and names the government organizations / ministries
responsible for it. We believe that such a huge increase in violence against women is not
possible without systemic failure at various levels of government and especially within
the Ministry of HRD and the Planning Commission. The police in our view is just dealing
with the symptoms ( i.e the first ripples ) of an approaching Tsunami of crime against
women, the full magnitude of which will hit India between 2016 and 2018.
Given the above, we find it very interesting that no-where in the Indian Media is there
any mention of the fact that “ POOR TEACHER QUALITY “ is responsible for the huge
increase in violence against our daughters and sisters and we ask “ How many more
girls must be raped and murdered before journalists start telling the truth to the people of
this country. ”
Detailed Briefing on Rising Rape in India
Recent arguments to explain the increasing incidence of brutal rapes in India ( The Dec ‘
2012 Delhi rape and the more recent rape of a photo journalist in Mumbai in Aug ‘ 2013 )
have been a lack of stringent laws and their effective enforcement combined with a slow
and tardy process to dispense justice.
There is a fundamental error in this argument due to which it cannot explain the rising
rape situation. Attacks against women are a global phenomenon but the recent surge in
brutal crime against women in India is very different from global experience on two
specific parameters :
1 ) its scale and
2) its brutality

3. Both of these suggest that the causative factors behind rising rape in India are unique
and therefore the remedies will also have to be specific for them to be effective. Some
of these remedies like police reforms need to be immediate while others will be executed
over a longer term.
Solving the “ Rising Rape “ riddle
In India the steep rise in the number of rape cases in recent times indicates that it is a
systemic problem and not a justice system issue. The brutality that we are seeing also
appears to be systemic but the reasons for this“ scale “ and “ brutality “ each , are very
different.
It is therefore extremely important to first understand the causes for rising rape in India
before we even attempt to solve the problem. Understanding must come first, the
remedies will follow.
Let us first examine the “ Scale “ issue and why crime in general is rising so rapidly in
India.
Of the two components of the problem, the scale part comes from a seriously flawed
central planning function within the government of India and specifically the way in which
the Planning Commission and the Ministry of HRD function today.
Most people will never connect the Planning Commission with Rising Rape ... especially
because they feel that no one in Government takes the Planning Commissions advice
seriously. What they forget is that Govt. of India uses Planning Commission numbers,
statistics and reports as the basis for government programmes ... and that is where
deadly mistakes are made.
It is documented and well known that somewhere between 1995 and 1999, the
population in India rose very rapidly. The census of 2001 was the first to notice this baby
boom and by 2007, the pundits were talking of India’s enormous demographic dividend
and the fact that we would soon have the largest percentage of the worlds young
population.
The Planning Commission was therefore fully aware in 2001 itself, that by 2018, some
200 million young people would enter the job going age group in India in addition to the
112 million that are unemployed today ( 2013 ). The Ministry of HRD was also fully
aware that there was a shortage of nearly 4.92 lakh secondary schools ( according to
11th
Plan documents ) across the nation and that given these enormous shortages , over
150 Million children would drop out of school … as there would be no schools to go to
after class IV.
What did the Ministry of HRD do between 2001 and 2013 to build capacities in
secondary education to keep 150 million children in school and what did the Planning
Commission do to generate employment creation projects to employ roughly 312 million
people ?

4. The truth is that neither the Planning Commission nor the Ministry of HRD did anything
and as a result on every street across India you find young men in the age groups 15 –
22 just sitting around with nothing to do. Their parents do not want them inside the
house and so they play cricket on the streets and they stare at you as you go by. Their
parents will soon tell them to generate their own cash and they are currently wondering
what they will do. Look outside your gate anywhere in India and you will see these young
men.
This is why crime of all kinds ( theft, extortion , kidnappings etc ) is rising and may well
triple by 2018 if we do not create millions of new jobs … fast. This is the scale part of the
problem.
Please note that nowhere in this analysis so far have we implied that un-employment
has anything to do with rape. It does not. We have simply implied that the global
correlation between un-employment and crime applies to India as well , but with one
critical difference , its potentially vast scale.
Now let us examine the “ Rape “ and “ brutality “ part
An examination of the profiles of the six rapists involved in the 16th
December incident
involving a 23 year old medical student in New Delhi and the two rapists involved in the
more recent rape of a 5 year old child clearly indicates where the moral turpitude and the
brutality comes from.
In both cases the rapists came from Bihar which also incidentally has the lowest teacher
quality in the country. In Bihar only 21 % of teachers have studied beyond class X while
in the rest of India only 46 % of all teachers have studied beyond class XII according to a
2007 NUEPA ( National University of Education Planning and Administration ) report.
The rest of India is nothing much to write about when it comes to teacher quality but
Bihar’s statistics indicate that very dangerous depths have been reached. I would hasten
to add that if this kind of teacher quality had been reached in any other state, it would
have had the same result and therefore Bihar and its people are not at fault.
But with no standards to speak of and with free exposure to porn in the media what do
we expect these young men to do when they have not been taught by properly qualified
teachers ? Also, we are forgetting that lack of an education does not mean lack of
aspiration. So tens of thousands of young men in India feel that if they cannot win a girls
affections in courtship and then approach her parents for her hand as is the proper way,
they can just rape her.
In our view therefore Rape is also going to rise ... maybe by 300 % by 2018 due to
widespread moral turpitude brought on by “ poor teacher quality “.Rising rape is
therefore essentially the fallout of a “ teacher quality “ problem. It is NOT due to
widespread illiteracy but because of widespread and poor teacher quality.

5. Fundamental Flaw … “ Literacy Centric ” SSA System
Rising Rape has its genesis in the “ literacy centric “ approach adopted by the Ministry of
HRD. In a literacy centric system, the focus is on getting children into primary school. In
the process the system beggars the teacher and turns “ Teaching “ into a profession
that no one wants to join. In fact as a result of the “ literacy centric “ approach of the
Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan ( SSA ), the worst qualified have taken up the most important
job in the country, the teaching of our children.
Therefore if India wants to become a US $ 4.5 Trillion economy by 2025, we need to
shift to a “ teacher centric “ system where teaching as a career is the first choice for a
graduate student. We need to remember that India achieved great heights under a
teacher centric system. We forget today that one rupee spent on a good teacher will
increase GDP by perhaps 30 rupees ( A 3000 % return ) . Investing in our teachers
therefore will have the biggest GDP impact possible for any investment India can make.
It needs to be mentioned here that the National Knowledge Commission (NKC), in its
report to the Prime Minister , suppressed critical information about teacher quality which
was brought to their notice in 2007. If the NKC had identified “ Poor Teacher Quality “ as
a critical action item and not an afterthought, it would have got more attention and we
may not have had this huge RAPE problem today. But the NKC hid the true numbers
and the immensity of the problem from the PMO and the public.
Getting to Remedies
It needs to be understood clearly that since the Rising Rape problem has its roots in the
Ministry of HRD and the Planning Commission and the complete lack of initiative within
these organizations over the last 8 – 9 years, the extreme damage done is going to take
two – three decades to repair.
In the interim, thousands of our daughters and sisters are going to be attacked, raped
and murdered. There is therefore a definite need for a Supreme Court led investigation
( SIT ) into why senior officials within these two organizations as well as the National
Knowledge Commission and the Prime Minister’s Office delayed secondary education
projects and misled the nation on “ Poor Teacher Quality ”.
A Supreme Court investigation is necessary, on two counts (1) Inaction and suppressing
of critical information by the executive over the last 10 years has led to a serious law and
order problem in the country … and therefore it is a matter for the Supreme Court (2) A
Joint Parliamentary Committee ( JPC ) probe may not suffice, given past experience with
JPC’s.
While the above is not strictly a remedy we still recommend it as it will ensure that
officials are held accountable in the future even after they retire, given the criminal
dimensions of their negligence. It will serve as a lesson for everyone.
Secondly, while we definitely need police reforms and we need fact track courts to crack
down on crimes against women, … what we need most urgently is large employment

6. generation projects that can create over 100 million jobs that get young men off the
streets and into serious work.
India needs to enter an era of Megaprojects very fast to avoid a demographic nightmare
because each day we wait , an astounding 4,78,469 young people are being rendered
unemployed, assuming elections are held on the 15th
of June 2014.
Large secondary school and vocational training projects are the need of the hour. The
planning commission recently recommended that the government drastically cut its role
in healthcare. This decision needs to be reversed , as a well planned national
healthcare scheme can easily create over 50 million new jobs. In fact the entire XIIth
plan ( written by the current government ) in as much as it relates to Education and
Healthcare needs to be scrapped and re-written.
Implementing the 74th
amendment to the constitution by every state government can
create another 50 million jobs as it will result in the clearing of literally hundreds of
projects for execution in over 600 towns and cities across India. All of this is not difficult
as we have the money today with nearly Rs. 20 lakh crores locked up in surplus land
owned by public sector companies. It is possibly the last real resource India has and it
must be used for Healthcare and Education first before it is used for wiping out the fiscal
deficit as a government panel has recently recommended.
If we act in time we can easily create over 100 million new jobs and solve the immediate
problem of rising crime and its scale. The biggest challenge any new government
elected in 2014 will face in new Delhi is not the economy , nor the possibility of a war
with China , but Rising Rape.
In fact if the new government ( any government ) is unable to check rising rape, the
people of India, who are not known for strategic thinking or for their patience , will throw
them out … and this may happen as soon as 2016.
- concluded –
Ashish Puntambekar runs an independent NGO “ The Nataraja Foundation “ in Mumbai. He is
the project designer for two very large national projects : “ The Indian Education Megaproject
and The Mumbai Megaproject, which are promoted by the think tank which he heads “ The
Planning & Design Lab “ . Views expressed are personal.
http://www.nataraja.org.in/masseducationproject.htm
www.mumbaimegaproject.com