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Long-term Future of thePortuguese Economya Scenario Building Process                              12th October 2012
The Scenarios Roadmap                        2
Groundwork           Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal                http://www.cenari...
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop                                 4
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop          A note on methodology I   Workshop metodology: an adaptation    (of a section) of ...
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop   The future will result from the interaction  between Megatrends coming from the pastand s...
Choosing Key Uncertainties
14 Key Uncertainties                       8
Global Scenarios 2050 WorkshopFour Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the participants                             ...
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop             3 Scenario Matrixes (12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)             ...
Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop                                 11
Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops                                                            12
Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops       What might define the future?                What will rem...
Timeline: The Portuguese Economy in the Global Context                                                         14
Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops          10 Uncertainties (in depth scanning2 » “inputs for disc...
1                              2                             3                               4   Evolução do Perfil de    ...
Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops          10 Uncertainties                 (co-built » shared)   ...
Working with Uncertainties and Configurations
1                                          2                                     3                                        ...
Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops           A note on methodology II an adaptation of the Morpholo...
The Scenarios        Two Long-Term       Scenarios for the          Portuguese           Economy                          ...
Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy         A note on methodology III    Scenario methodological note: a mo...
Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy               A note on methodology IVC1: “Welcome”C1 - SummaryC1 – Glo...
Scenario no. 1 “Welcome”                 24
“Welcome”In spite of the major structural forces limiting the internationalpositioning of the Portuguese economy still hin...
Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario                                      • Rise of Large Eastern                   ...
“Welcome” - Synthesis Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of  its...
“Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments                                                        Nautical Tourism             ...
“Welcome” Scenario – Benefiting Sectors                                                                                   ...
Scenario no. 2“We cannot fail”                   30
“We cannot fail”  A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the  functioning of the Portuguese economy and society...
Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario                                 • Rising of large                       ...
“We cannot fail” - Synthesis Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its  ...
Relation/compatibility between PT Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios (C1 + C2)                         and the Global Fram...
Quantification» not forecasts, but possible evolution patterns of the variables.» The scenario period was divided into two...
Quantification                                        International Scenarios Quantification                              ...
Quantification                                         Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal           ...
Quantification                          Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal (following)              ...
Quantification                            Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal (conclusion)           ...
The Scenarios Roadmap                        40
Authors & ParticipantsResearch & Facilitation Team:                  Workshops Participants:António Alvarenga (coordinatio...
Thank Youwww.cenariosportugal.com             antonio.alvarenga@apambiente.pt
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Alvarenga long term_scenarios_building

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Alvarenga long term_scenarios_building

  1. 1. Long-term Future of thePortuguese Economya Scenario Building Process 12th October 2012
  2. 2. The Scenarios Roadmap 2
  3. 3. Groundwork Cenários, Reflexões e Planos Estratégicos de Longo Prazo em Portugal http://www.cenariosportugal.com/_files/4_compilacaoCenarios.pdf Projectos Internacionais de Cenárioshttp://www.cenariosportugal.com/_files/02.Compilacao_de_Projectos_Internacionais_de_Cenarios.pdfColecção de Cenários Globais – Selecção e Análise de Projectos Internacionais de Cenários http://www.cenariosportugal.com/_files/01.Coleccao_de_Cenarios_Globais.pdf DPP Scanning Docs http://www.dpp.pt/pt/HorizonScanning/scanning-docs/Paginas/default.aspx 3
  4. 4. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop 4
  5. 5. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop A note on methodology I Workshop metodology: an adaptation (of a section) of the intuitive-logics scenario-building approach 5
  6. 6. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop The future will result from the interaction between Megatrends coming from the pastand shaping the future, Weak Signals or issues at an embrionary stage of development,Wildcards that might surprise us in a positive ornegative way, and Structural Uncertainties thatmight take us not just for one but for a plurality of possible futures. 6
  7. 7. Choosing Key Uncertainties
  8. 8. 14 Key Uncertainties 8
  9. 9. Global Scenarios 2050 WorkshopFour Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the participants 9
  10. 10. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop 3 Scenario Matrixes (12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration) 10
  11. 11. Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop 11
  12. 12. Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops 12
  13. 13. Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops What might define the future? What will remain? Structural limitations? What can project Portugal? 13
  14. 14. Timeline: The Portuguese Economy in the Global Context 14
  15. 15. Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops 10 Uncertainties (in depth scanning2 » “inputs for discussion”) 15
  16. 16. 1 2 3 4 Evolução do Perfil de Posição e Função de Preferências e Apostas ao ConectividadeEspecialização da Economia Portugal no Sistema nível dos Relacionamentos (Física e Digital) Portuguesa Internacional de Transportes Geoeconómicos por parte de Portugal na e Logística dos Poderes Públicos e Economia Global (Padrão de Actividades Investidores Portugueses Exportadoras) 5 6 Padrão de Urbanizaçãoe Organização do Território PORTUGAL 2050 Evolução das Soluções/ Plataformas Energéticas e INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS de Mobilidade 7 8 9 10 Evolução do Modelo de Tipologia e Papel das Intensidade, Impactos Evolução dos Sistemas de Coesão Social Português Cidades e Gestão do(s) Ensino e Formação em no Desenvolvimento do País Envelhecimento(s) da Portugal (Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e População em Portugal Formação; Protecção Social; (Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia, Saúde) (Ligação com Sistemas de …) Pensões e de Saúde)
  17. 17. Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops 10 Uncertainties (co-built » shared) 17
  18. 18. Working with Uncertainties and Configurations
  19. 19. 1 2 3 4 Evolution of the Structure and Financial Sustainability of the Political System Model Institutional Capacity Building ofSpecialisation of the Portuguese Portuguese Economy the Portuguese Economy and Economy Society• Exporting activities and • External imbalances • Evolution of democracy internationalisation • National debt + private debt • Attractiveness of other solutions • Evolution and credibility of the• Position in the value chains of goods • Ability and promptness in solving institutions and services traded internationally financial imbalances • Social capital• Insertion in the international division of labour. 6 5 Strategic Leadership and Pro- Cultural Values and Ability to Generate Social Capital PORTUGAL 2050 activity of the Economic Agents POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES • Political System• Cultural changes • Alignment and mobilisation of the• Confidence players• Individual benefit vs. collective (Workshop 2) • Strategic vision and quality of benefit governance• Capacity of innovation and societal change 7 8 9 10 Evolution of the Portuguese Typology and Role of the Cities Generational Uncertainty - how Evolution of the Education and social cohesion model in Spatial Planning is the next generation going to Training Systems in Portugal live? • Territorial cohesion • Human capital• Redistributive mechanisms • Dynamics of urbanisation • Generational conflicts • Quality and efficiency of the systems• Labour market • Networks of cities • Generational cohesion and solidarity • Connection and harmony with the• Education and Training labour market• Social protection • Training throughout life• Health
  20. 20. Long-term socio-economic scenarios for Portugal Workshops A note on methodology II an adaptation of the Morphological Analysis logic to an workshop/participatory context. 20
  21. 21. The Scenarios Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy 21
  22. 22. Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy A note on methodology III Scenario methodological note: a more inductive systematization 22
  23. 23. Two Long-Term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy A note on methodology IVC1: “Welcome”C1 - SummaryC1 – Global Framework (GF_A)C1 - Introduction: Structural Steps in the Functioning andPositioning of the Portuguese EconomyC1 – Evolution of the Specialization ProfileC1 – Strategic Leadership, Institutional Capacity Building andSocial CapitalC1 – Scientific Potential and Education and Training SystemsC1 – Spatial Planning and Role of the CitiesC1 – Physical and Digital ConnectivityC1 – Energy and Environment 23
  24. 24. Scenario no. 1 “Welcome” 24
  25. 25. “Welcome”In spite of the major structural forces limiting the internationalpositioning of the Portuguese economy still hindering the success of theattempts for achieving transformation, Portugal manages to positionitself at an international level as a Tourism/welcoming country, based onits “classic” comparative advantages and with the capacity for organisingits territory as a whole, reclaiming buildings and planning the cities.Several and recurring economic problems occur but our collectivecapacity to manage the short term and find answers ends up succeeding,step-by-step, in rebalancing the situations. The combination of the gainsin urban planning with the dynamics of cultural and creative industriesconstitutes an important and complementary contribution in the logic ofthe “innovative welcoming” in the same way as activities associatedwith active aging, including the development of market niches related tothe health/pharmaceutical industry. 25
  26. 26. Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario • Rise of Large Eastern Economies, with particular impact of the Chinese Economy • Oligopolistic world •… (Geo)economy Competition • Increase in the world • Resources/• Different approaches population • Regulation/Rules to technological Technology • Markets/Regional Demography • Aging of the Innovation Influence/Models population in the•… • Socio-economic developed countries References •… Environment/ Sustainability • Pressure on water resources • Increasing need for Energy •… 26
  27. 27. “Welcome” - Synthesis Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of its economy (containment of the chronic external deficit and ability to plan and organize its territory); Portugal wasn’t able to successfully bring about some needed structural changes (concerning internal imbalances endemic in nature and the way by which its economy integrated itself in the globalisation process, with the virtuous exception of tourism); Expectations created with the balancing of public accounts defrauded by Portugal’s inability, in adverse international environment, to become more attractive and central; Some ability for the generation of "endogenous" skills; Inability to attract FDI capable of leveraging change in the production profile; Structural reforms begun, but slow to implement in a context of major budget tightening; Constant monitoring by financial markets; Portugal reveals the capacity for short-term response in very difficult situations, but is never able to do the same for long term; Economic course of action characterized by proximity and quick return investment in activities and sectors where Portugal has comparative advantages with poorly skilled yet specialized labour; Exception being the promotion of the health cluster in niche markets, driven by tourism to accommodate the elderly population of developed countries, more demanding in health care. 27
  28. 28. “Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments Nautical Tourism Golf City and Short Breaks  To consolidate the strong  To invest in the docking conditions  To improve accessibility to Lisbon / international projection as a golf and in the building of ports and destination Porto harbours, marinas and recreational  To build more high quality golf  To improve the tourist experience, ports in the priority areas. courses (by famous architects) and particularly in Porto by structuring  In the cruises segment, to improve with a diversified offer thematic itineraries, diversifying the conditions of the terminals and  To ensure annual golf tournaments entertainment events to create new routes with high international projection  To stimulate golf practice in Portugal Gastronomy and Wines Integrated Resorts and Residential  To take advantage of the conditions Sun and Sea Segment Tourism and natural / cultural resources  Re-qualify the product with priority  Growing in quality (Douro, Alentejo and Central to Algarve  To promote the creation of resorts Portugal)  To structure the product  To invest in complementary activities with associated offers (e.g. golf  To stimulate the sale of Appellation which strengthen the value proposal courses and Spas) for the tourist  To highlight tourism management of Origin products (wines and systems focused on resorts cheeses)  Food Tasting Offer Business Tourism Cultural and Landscape Touring Nature Tourism  To consolidate the offer for large  To create thematic routes  To improve the infrastructures congresses in Lisbon and to develop  To enrich the experience in the main  To improve road signs and the paths it in Algarve places of attraction through nature  To develop the small meetings  To ensure the adoption of quality  To develop the offer, ensuring the segment in Lisbon, Porto, Algarve standards along the whole value preservation of the protected areas and Madeira chain Health and Well-being  To develop distinctive offers in Azores and Madeira  To transform the Spa industry in Porto, and in the North and Centre of the country  To develop well-being equipment and services in Hotels  Medical Tourism 28
  29. 29. “Welcome” Scenario – Benefiting Sectors Support Services  Certification Building and Real Estate  Waste management Logistics and Transportation  Environmental management and  Rehabilitation of real estate  Geographical reference systems valorisation  Requalification of public areas  Ports  Engineering  Energy and Environmental  Mobility  CIT Certification  Training  Marketing  Organising events Cultural and Creative Industries Food Industry  Educative and leisure software  Vegetable and specialty agriculture Equipment goods  Media and entertainment  Biological products  Leisure equipment  Design  Gourmet products  Sports equipment  Architecture  Fishing and aquaculture  Hotel and restaurant equipment  Advertising  Wine tasting  Gastronomy competitions and fairs Health and Community Care Distribution and Trade Security and Defence  Telemedicine  Monitoring of the coastal areas and  Supermarkets  Community care of the exclusive economic area  Shopping centres  Hospitals and private clinics  Internal security (public and private)  Luxury goods  Pharmaceutical products related to  Information Services aging 29
  30. 30. Scenario no. 2“We cannot fail” 30
  31. 31. “We cannot fail” A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the functioning of the Portuguese economy and society, combine with some global external driving forces to turn the three decades subsequent to 2011 unique in growth dynamics, increase in competitive capacity and sectorial, institutional and societal reorganisation of our country. In this scenario, there is a reindustrialisation of the Portuguese economy together with the development of new activities, namely in high-technology domains (bio, cogno, nano…) and services of intensive knowledge. Portugal stands out in the fields of clean energies, sustainable mobility and new intelligent materials. 31
  32. 32. Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario • Rising of large economies • Changing to a multi- polar world •… (Geo)economy Competition • Speeding up of • Increase of the world change and population technologic Resources • Aging of the Technology Demography convergence Skills population in the • Ubiquitous Savings developed countries intelligence • … • Market convergence • … Environment/ Sustainability • Pressure over water resources • Increasing needs of energy • Increasing importance of the ecology and environmental issues • … 32
  33. 33. “We cannot fail” - Synthesis Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its economy; Macroeconomic and microeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate innovation, creativity and technological improvement moving the economy up in the value chain; Containment of labour costs for companies so that the jobs needed to absorb a still abundant poorly skilled yet specialised workforce could be kept; Ability to use "endogenous" resources and skills to attract strategic FDI; Ability to work both the short term and the long term; Awareness that short term investment wouldn’t be enough to design and build a sufficiently competitive and innovative economy 20 or 30 years into the future; Ability to initiate and develop a number of projects designed to attract to Portugal high value added, knowledge-intensive activities; Ability to tune in and synchronize with the more dynamic and innovative clusters and regions of the world economy (Europe, USA and Asia), bearing in mind the pro-active and selective manner in which Portugal, without forgetting its history, culture and natural integration into the European, Iberian and Portuguese speaking countries, positioned itself among these different regions and actors. 33
  34. 34. Relation/compatibility between PT Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios (C1 + C2) and the Global Framework (GF) C2: “We cannot fail” Unexplored combination: in C2: “We cannot fail”: in a a tense and unstable world, growing and highly with the “western world” going competitive world, Portugal through a difficult transition, manages to (re)position itself the external “levers” for the in the new technological and transformations underlying C2 innovation waves that feed a are, in most part, absent. global, integrated and very dynamic economy. GF_A: Unstable world in a troubled transition; reactive, GF_B: Highly competitive with protectionist tendencies globalisation; economic and an increase of the growth with effective ability national and macro-regional for global coordination and specificities (political, C1: “Welcome”: in a world action economic and so on) going through a difficult and unstable transition which Unexplored combination: tended to reinforce the possible scenario but less peripheral nature of Portugal, ambitious than C2 (our option our country focused with was, in this case, to “exalt”, for success on its comparative clarity purposes, the built traditional advantages: Scenarios) “amenities”/natural resources, cheap labour /”circumstantial” access to the markets. C1: “Welcome” 34
  35. 35. Quantification» not forecasts, but possible evolution patterns of the variables.» The scenario period was divided into two periods with distinctcharacteristics:- 2011-2020, a closer time horizon in which, although the degree ofuncertainty is very high, the historic trends still have considerable weight.Therefore, a reflection with some detail about the sectorial evolutions ispossible.- 2021-2050, a much more distant period, in which the prospect of thevariables’ evolution is related mainly with the perception of theirrelationship with the main trends and “structural characteristics” of eachScenario. 35
  36. 36. Quantification International Scenarios Quantification Average annual rates of change in volume (%) Estima Scenario C1 Scenario C2 te “Welcome” “We cannot fail” 2011- 2021- 2011- 2011- 2021- 2011- 2006- 20 50 50 20 50 50 10 GDP 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,4 1,8 1,9 1,9 Europe (a) Population 0,4 0,1 -0,1 -0,1 0,2 0,0 0,1 GDP per capita 0,5 1,1 1,6 1,5 1,6 1,9 1,8 World (b) GDP 3,6 3,0 2,8 2,9 3,9 3,5 3,6 (a) 2006-2010 = EU27: Source: European Commission (“Economic Forecasts”, Spring and Autumn 2011) and DPP. (b) 2006-2010: Source: IMF (World Economic Outlook, September 2011) and DPP. Scenarios Quantification for Portugal Average annual rates of change in volume (%) Value on Estimate Scenario C1 Scenario C2 2005 “Welcome” “We cannot fail” 2006-10 2011-20 2021-50 2011-50 2011-20 2021-50 2011-50 GDP (market prices) 157 999 0,5 0,2 1,5 1,2 1,2 2,9 2,4 (Million € at 2006 prices) Total GVA (base prices) 135 511 0,8 0,2 1,5 1,2 1,2 2,9 2,4 (Million € at 2006 prices) Households Private Consumption of residents over the territory 99 867 1,3 -1,1 1,4 0,7 -0,3 2,7 1,9 (Million € at 2006 prices) Resident Population (annual average) 10,5 0,2 -0,1 -0,3 -0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 (Million inhabitants) GDP per capita 14 977 0,3 0,3 1,8 1,4 1,2 2,8 2,4 (€ at 2006 prices) Annual real convergence with Europe (c) -0,1 -0,8 0,2 0,0 -0,4 0,9 0,6 (c) Estimated by the relative evolution of the GDP per capita at constant prices. 36
  37. 37. Quantification Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal Million € Average annual rates of change in volume at 2006 (%) pricesSectors A80 Base Estimate Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Link to Scenarios / Short explanation notes Year “Welcome” “We cannot fail” 2006-10 2005 2011- 2021- 2011- 2021- 20 50 20 50 Agriculture and Concerns with the reduction of food dependency in the two scenarios; C1 – Specialities agriculture connected to1 fishing 1+3 3 021 0,1 0,0 1,5 0,7 2,1 tourism; C2 – Focus in the technological conversion and in the progress of the value chain. C1 – The modernisation of processes and product’s innovation promotes the exporting market, stimulating the2 Forestry 2 652 1,2 1,0 1,5 1,2 2,0 production in articulation with the pulp, paper and paper products sector; C2 – The modernisation of processes and product’s innovation promotes the exporting market in niche markets.3 Coal, lignite and peat 5 There is no national manufacture of these products and it is not foreseen. Concerns with the reduction of oil dependency; the investments made in the refineries on the first decade of the XXI century, allow an increase of diesel oil exports in both Scenarios; C2 – The technologic pole of the Crude oil and refined Part of chemical industries, petrochemicals and refineries manages to gradually achieve the goals of linking Matosinhos-4 659 0,9 0,3 0,8 0,7 1,5 petroleum products 6 + 19 Estarreja-Setúbal-Sines and wins an international dimension, allowing progresses in the nano innovations and hydrogen production; in the second period, hydrogen wins some importance in the “reform” of the transports and decentralisation of the power distribution grids. As the most competitive (price) and sustainable (less emissions) fossil source, natural gas shows a cruise speed Natural Gas Part of after the strong boom in the years before the pre-crisis and financial crisis in both scenarios; the bet in the5 (extraction and 300 5,1 0,3 1,0 0,7 1,5 6 + 35 natural gas exploration in the Algarve basin produces some visible results after 2020, contributing for the distribution) reduction of the energy dependency in both scenarios. Traditional mining 7-9 Penalised by the slowing of demand in the crisis years, they lose competitive capacity in C1 and reach a new6 and manufacturing 10-16 9 346 -1,1 -2,0 0,5 0,5 2,2 technology level plus talents / skills plus innovation in C2. industries 31-33 37
  38. 38. Quantification Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal (following) Million € Average annual rates of change in volume at 2006 (%) pricesSectors A80 Base Estimate Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Link to Scenarios / Short explanation notes Year “Welcome” “We cannot fail” 2006-10 2011- 2021- 2011- 2021- 2005 20 50 20 50 During the first period, the strong investments made in the sector in the period 2006-2010, produce effects in both scenarios; In the second period: C1 – Linking with dynamic clusters such as the cultural and creative industries allows Pulp, paper, and 17 to keep positive performances and intensify the intra-industrials relationships together with the development of the7 1 367 0,4 1,5 1,5 1,5 1,5 paper products 18 national forestry and the improvement of partnerships with Brazil and Mozambique; C2 – Strong competition of paper substitute products, but the traditional national know-how in the pulp, paper and paper products evolves for more intelligent products related to ICT and to nano technologies (smart paper). C1 – Dynamism of the pharmaceutical industry, impelled by a Chemical 20 Tourism focused on health. C2 – In a scenario of changes, innovation resulting from intelligent plastic materials is a8 Products, rubber 21 1 885 0,4 0,8 2,0 1,1 3,0 push to the sectorial GVA; the health cluster/ pole affirms itself on the international level as leader in some highly and plastics 22 innovative market niches. C1 – The evolution of the sector follows closely the construction sector; C2 – During the first period the evolution of Non-metallic the sector follows the construction sector; in the second period, developing of more intelligent materials (new9 23 1 680 -1,9 -0,3 1,6 -0,6 2,0 mineral products building materials of high thermal efficiency and /or power generation, namely pavements, bricks and tiles that capture solar energy).10 Basic metals 24 451 5,8 0,5 1,0 1,1 3,0 C2 – Bigger growing impelled by the equipment and apparatus and transport equipment sectors. 25 Equipment and 2611 3 700 2,2 0,0 1,0 1,8 4,4 C2 – Dynamism associated to several equipment, namely in the generation of renewable energies. apparatus 27 28 C2 – The reconfiguration of the automobile paradigm and of the related industries, around the materials innovation, Transport 29 efficiency and sustainability (fuel cells, plastics devices) grants a strong stimulus to the sector; in the second period,12 1 259 -4,9 0,8 0,5 2,0 4,4 Equipment 30 Portugal starts the production of electric vehicles; the aeronautics/ aerospace cluster suffers progresses, benefiting from the links to leading-edge projects inserted in international networks. 38
  39. 39. Quantification Gross Value Added (GVA) Sectorial Scenarios for Portugal (conclusion) Million € Average annual rates of change in volume at 2006 (%) prices Sectors A80 Base Year Estimate Scenario C1 Scenario C2 Link to Scenarios / Short explanation notes “Welcome” “We cannot fail” 2005 2006-10 2011- 2021- 2011- 2021- 20 50 20 50 C1 – The expansion of the national power generation sector suffers strong delays on the beginnings Electricity (power generation of the period, due to the economic constraint as well as to restrictions in the electricity exports;13 and distribution), steam and hot Part of 35 2 518 5,1 1,0 2,1 2,0 4,6 strong focus in energy efficiency; C2 – It is differentiated by the strong focus in electric mobility, water smart grids, micro generation and related services with a higher value added. Being one of the most penalized sectors due to the crisis, it only manages to overcome the difficulties by changing the specialisation profile, directed to the sustainability and use of intelligent14 Construction 414243 10 304 -3,9 -0,4 1,7 -0,6 1,6 materials, catalysers of market value;C1 – Revitalisation/ reconfiguration of the cities with buildings renovation; C2 – More penalized by the crisis during the first period; implementation in the second period of some infrastructures that in the meantime had been postponed. C1 – Impelled dynamism by Tourism/hospitality; C2 – Associated to the major internal dynamics 55 56 45-15 Trade, repair and Horeca 25 212 0,3 0,5 2,1 1,0 2,5 and to the central role of services exports, increased by the development of new products and 47 markets’ diversification. C1 – Transports associated to tourism, with greater dynamism of the water transports (cruises); Land transport, via pipeline, 49 50 progressive modal shift for smoother ways; C2 – Transports associated to merchandises, benefiting16 water transport and services 4 373 1,3 0,5 1,5 0,8 2,5 52 the flow of products by sea; dynamism of the individual transport through the electric vehicle in related with transports the second period. C1 – More associated to passengers; C2 – More associated to businesses and to light merchandises17 Air Transports 51 667 8,4 0,7 2,1 1,0 2,5 of high value added. C1 – Evolution of the ICTs and telecommunication, plus the dynamism of the cultural and creative Business services industries impelled by Tourism; C2 - The consolidation of a new wave of globalisation in the period18 (communications, real estate 53 58-82 33 437 2,7 0,3 1,2 2,2 3,4 after the crisis is based on the evolution of the business services, ICT’s, and financial services; and financial services ) incorporation of the ICTs in the several sectors associated to telecommunication. Other services (water, C1 – Dynamism of the recreational services and health services impelled by tourism; C2 – The sanitation, public services, 36-4019 34 680 0,4 0,2 1,5 0,8 2,6 reorganisation of the State and the increasing role of the third sector promote a marked growth in education, health, recreational 84-99 the second period. services and others) 39
  40. 40. The Scenarios Roadmap 40
  41. 41. Authors & ParticipantsResearch & Facilitation Team: Workshops Participants:António Alvarenga (coordination) Ana Maria Fernandes Luís NazaréPaulo Carvalho (coordination up to May 2011) Ângela Lobo Manuel Mira GodinhoÂngela Lobo António Manzoni Manuela Proença António de Melo Pires Maria da Luz CorreiaCatarina Rogado Francisco Cordovil Miguel Duarte FerreiraFátima Azevedo Guta Moura Guedes Miguel MonjardinoMiguel Déjean Guerra Helena Cordeiro Miguel St AubynSofia Rodrigues João Caraça Natalino Martins João Ferrão Nuno Ribeiro da Silva Jorge Marrão Patrícia FortesWith the collaboration of: José Emílio Amaral Gomes Pedro Moreira José Maria Brandão de Roberto Carneiro;Manuela Proença Brito Stephan MagnusAna Maria Dias Júlia Seixas Vítor Bento Luís Campos e Cunha 41
  42. 42. Thank Youwww.cenariosportugal.com antonio.alvarenga@apambiente.pt

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