1. Low Head Wind Farm
Ankit Grover
Byoungmo Kang
Cecilia M. Ferreira
Liang Zhao
Feasibility study
2. Tasmania has a great wind resource known as the
roaring forties.
Why investing in a Tasmanian wind
farm is a good idea?
Two-thirds of Tasmanian
electricity generation comes from
Hydro-electricity. There is a need
for balance!
Use the Basslink to sell electricity to
the mainland when demand is high.
Office of the Economic Regulator, 2014
3.
4. Site characterization
• Area: 15.7 km
2
• 6 km to George Town
Airport
• 7.2 km to BoM Weather
Station
• 10 km to George Town
Substation (220 kV)
• Wind speed: 8.68 m/s ( at
hub - 94 m)
• Wind Direction: Southly and
Westly
• Terrain slope: 2.3% and 1.2%
• Land usage: Crown land and
freehold land
(SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd, 2005)(Transend Networks, 2014)
5. Wind Resource Analysis
• Low Head Station
- Speed and Distribution -
• Gradient Height 250 m
• Surface Roughness: 30 mm
(Robertson & Gaylord, 1980)
6. Wind Resource Analysis
• Selected Site
- Speed and Distribution -
• Gradient Height 400 m
• Surface Roughness: 700 mm
(Robertson & Gaylord, 1980)
7. Wind Resource Analysis
- Speed and Distribution -
Height
[m]
Surface
roughness
[m]
Gradient
height
[m]
Mean
wind
speed
[m/s]
Standard
deviation
BoM
Station
10 0.03 250 7.24 3.036
Wind farm
site
94 0.70 400 8.68 3.642
• IEC 61400 – 1 : Wind class II
16. Sea Transport
Transportation
Vestas V112 - Macarthur wind farm
Port of Bell Bay is 27km from wind farm site.
Deep Waters in the Tamar River.
Current crane tonnage – 19tonnes, will need to be
increased.
Road Transport
3 temporary roadblocks will
need to be set.
3 difficult left turns to
maneuver.
Soldiers Settlement road.
17. Soil Analysis
Light green (Kl) – Soils developed from recent calcareous
sands on stabilized dunes and beach ridges , load bearing
tests needed.
Reconnaissance Soil Map Series of Tasmania For Beaconsfield – George Town
18. Closest sub station is the George Town Sub Station.
Proposed 10km of 110kV HVAC transmission lines.
Use same transmission corridor as the Basslink
overhead lines.
Grid Connection
19. Proximity to load centers, Bell Bay Aluminum Smelter
Basslink opportunities
Grid Connection
Office of the Economic Regulator, 2014
22. According to Dr. Cindy Hall number of collisions
decreasing in Tasmania
Most common : Brown Thornbill and Silver Gull
Avian Fauna
23. Site is composed with free
hold land and crown land
owned by the
government. (The Crown)
Can be bought or Leased
Small amount of Land
clearance required
Land
(SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd, 2005)
24. Possible waste
produced from
construction
No harmful or
hazardous waste during
operation
Cleanest energy source
Disposal of wind turbine
after lifespan
Recycle in thermal and
mechanical uses
Waste management
http://www.holcim.com/en/referenceprojects/disused-rotor-blades-can-now-
be-utilized-in-cement-production.html
25. Visual Impact
Noise Impact
Local and government opinions
Social Impact
27. Located near coastline –
Possible destructive coastal
view
Distance from housings are far
enough
No SHADOW FLICKER (Range
of 550m)
Wind turbines are recognized
as symbol of renewable
energy
Visual Impact
28. Wind farm noise – the biggest problem for local
residents
Noise level of wind farm 103 dB
Allowed noise level 35 dB at housing
Presence of trees and direction of wind blowing away
from the housing
Noise Impact
29. Tasmanian government-the premier Will Hodgman
"Tasmania as a renewable energy state has
tremendous capacity, I believe, into the future”
Previous wind farms in TAS were supported by local
communities
Employment and local business development
Possible opposition group (NIMBY)
Opinions
30. Financial Modeling
Electricity
𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
Revenue
in 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
Discounted
𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
O&M cost
per year
Annual
interest
Total
𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
Discounted
Total
𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
Initial
cost
Tax
Capital
cost
Annual
required
revenue
×Electricity
produced
× Discount factor
× Tax rate
DF
×Capacity
Cash
𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
𝑁𝑃𝑉𝑖
+ 𝑁𝑃𝑉𝑖−1
(Initial NPV equal to the
negative initial cost)
31. High revenue
scenario
Medium revenue
scenario
Low revenue
scenario
Capital costs (million
AU$/MV)
1.7 2.35 2.53
Life time (years) 20 20 20
Discount rate 10% 10% 10%
Inflation rate 0.024 0.024 0.024
Construction time
(years)
1 1 2
Total O&M per year
($/MW)
10297682.74 10297682.74 10297682.74
Electricity price
(AU$/MWh)
110.00 90.00 39.056(in 2017)
Capacity factor 45.38% 45.38% 45.38%
O&M Cost $10297682.74 $10297682.74 $10297682.74
Tax rate 0.03 0.03 0.03
NPV of project $308002166.50 $61451272.20 -$97643477.50
IRR 25.34% 12.95% 7.58%
LCE(AU$/MWh) 60.81288773 77.0976962 81.60733547
33. Conclusion
Main advantages:
Strong wind resource
Good correlation with demand and possibility to sell to Victorian market
Proximity to a port, a substation as well as to a load center
Existence of a road connecting the site
What is necessary to move forward with the project:
Do wind measurements at the site to substitute the use of projected
data
Do soil and geography analysis to choose the foundation type
Do further fauna assessments (as this is a site specific issue)
Study the effect of blade glint on road users
Check the availability of the Crown Land and if the other landlords will
be willing to lease their land
34. Conclusion
The construction of a 148.5 MW wind farm will be able to generate
590 [GWh] per year.
However, It will be necessary to do a Power Purchase Agreement to
make the project financially viable. Therefore it became an interesting
investment with:
Medium revenue ($90/MWh)
NPV: $ 61,451,272.20
IRR: 12.95%
SPB: 12 years
High revenue ($110/MWh)
NPV: $ 308,002,166.50
IRR: 25.34%
SPB: 7 years
36. References
Australian Energy Market Operator. (2015). Aggregated Price and Demand Data Files. Retrieved April 25, 2015, from
http://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/Data/Price-and-Demand/Aggregated-Price-and-Demand-Data-Files
Economic Regulator. (2014, February). Energy in Tasmania - Performance Report 2012-13. Retrieved April 30, 2015, from
http://www.economicregulator.tas.gov.au/domino/otter.nsf/LookupFiles/Energy_in_Tasmania_Performance_Report_2012-
13_FINAL_140212.pdf/$file/ Energy_in_Tasmania_Performance_Report_2012-13_FINAL_140212.pdf
Robertson, L. E., & Gaylord, E. H. (1980). Section 3.3.2 - Properties of the Mean Wind. In Tall building: criteria and loading (pp.
161 - 162). New York: American Society of Civil Engineers.
SFM Environmental Solutions Pty Ltd. (2005, October). George Town Coastal Management Plan. Retrieved April 7, 2015, from
http://georgetown.tas.gov.au/coastal-reserve-management-lan?fd=pP%25F8%25F0%252F%25B5%25E7%25D
D%25A3%25EDJ%2588%25B4r%25FC%25F6d%25DC%25CEO%252FI%253A%253FN5D%25CD%25F3%252FMA26%253F
Transend Networks. (2014, June 30). Annual Planning Report: 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2015, from
http://www.tasnetworks.com.au/TasNetworks/media/pdf/Transend-Annual-Planning-Report-2014.pdf
Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator. (2014). Energy in Tasmania - Performance Report 2012/13.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment. RECONNAISSANCE SOIL MAP SERIES OF TASMANIA
BEACONSFIELD-GEORGE TOWN.
38. Appendix 2
In order to translate the wind measurements from the BoM station to hub height at the
proposed wind farm site, firstly, it is necessary to calculate the free stream speed,𝑈 𝐹𝑆, at the
BoM station from its measured wind velocity, 𝑈𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛. Using the logarithmic law, this can be
done with the following equation:
𝑈 𝐹𝑆 = 𝑈𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑜𝑛
ln
𝑧 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑−𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑧0−𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
ln
𝑧𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑧0−𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
As it is reasonable to assume that the free stream speed is the same in both sites, it is
possible to scale down the wind speed from gradient to hub height at the wind farm site,
𝑈𝑆𝑖𝑡𝑒, using again the logarithmic law:
𝑈𝑆𝑖𝑡𝑒 = 𝑈 𝐹𝑆
ln
𝑧ℎ𝑢𝑏
𝑧0−𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒
ln
𝑧 𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑−𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒
𝑧0−𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒
- Scaling Wind Speeds -
39. Appendix 3
The Weibull distribution is used to approximate the distribution of wind speeds for a certain location. It uses two
parameters: k, called shape factor, and c, called scale factor. Which can be calculated using the mean wind speed, 𝑈,
and the standard deviation, σ, of a dataset with the following equations:
𝑘 =
σ
𝑈
−1.086
𝑐 = 𝑈 0.568 +
0.433
𝑘
−1/𝑘
With this parameters, it is possible to calculate the Weibull Probability Density Function (PDF) which is
the relative likelihood in [m/s] of having wind at speeds of U [m/s]:
𝑃𝐷𝐹 𝑈 =
𝑘
𝑐
𝑈
𝑐
𝑘−1
𝑒
−
𝑈
𝑐
𝑘
And the Weibull Cumulative Distribution Fuction (CDF) which is the probability of having wind speeds
below U [m/s]:
𝐶𝐷𝐹 𝑈 = 1 − 𝑒
−
𝑈
𝑐
𝑘
Therefore, it is possible to calculate the probability of finding wind speed within a range of velocities
by:
𝑈1 < 𝑈 < 𝑈2 = 𝐶𝐷𝐹 𝑈2 − 𝐶𝐷𝐹 𝑈1
This can be used to calculate the number of hours per year that the wind blows within that range of
speeds and the energy output. (Manwell, McGowan, & Rogers, 2004)
- Weilbul Distribution -
41. Appendix 5
- Wind Turbine Selection -
Our site is characterized as a class IIa (IEC standards)
Low to medium turbulence due to trees and small hills
Average wind speed of 8.68m/s
46. Appendix 10
Initial cost:
𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 = 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 $𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑀𝑊 × 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑀𝑊
The O&M cost could calculate by:
O&M 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑= 𝑂&𝑀𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒×C × 8760
𝐻𝑂𝑈𝑅𝑆
𝑌𝐸𝐴𝑅
(NOTE, C is
the capacity factor.)
O&M cost per year = O&M 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑 + 𝑂&𝑀𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑
Calculation of𝐀𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭:
PV=A×
1−(
1+𝑖
1+𝑓
)−𝑁
1+𝑖
1+𝑓
, PV= the initial cost; A is annual required revenue
A= PV/
1−(
1+𝑖
1+𝑓
)−𝑁
1+𝑖
1+𝑓
→ Annual interest=
n×𝐴−𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙
𝑛
- Financial Modeling -
47. Discount Factor : (
1+𝑖
1+𝑓
)−𝑁
𝑇𝑎𝑥𝑖 = revenue𝑖 × 0.03
𝑵𝑷𝑽𝒊= 𝑁𝑃𝑉𝑖−1 +Discounted revenue𝑖 − The discounted total
𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖
(Initial NPV equal to the negative initial cost)
Levelised cost of electricity is calculated by:
LCOE=
Annual required revenue
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
+
O&M 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡,𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑+𝑂&𝑀 𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑒𝑑
𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
48. • BoM Weather Station: Low Head Lighthouse
• Datasets:
Hourly wind data from 6 June 2000 to 16 February 2011
And half-hourly wind measurements from 1 January 2011 to
4 July 2012.
Appendix 11
- Wind data -
