1. 1 D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 6
Let ter from the President
The Peggotty Investment Club is off to a historic start to the
2016-17 academic year as assests under management
and club membership are at record highs. As the
exclusive extracurricular value proposition in the
field of finance at Connecticut College, the club aims
to provide students an opportunity to pursue post-
graduate opportunities in finance as well as foster
general education. This first installment of the Peggotty
Newsletter – a bi-annual circulation – is an opportunity
to showcase student interest in finance, investing, and
banking at Connecticut College to our alumni and the
greater College community.
The Peggotty Investment Club in our executive board’s
opinion should be promulgated as a fifth academic
course as it seeks to bridge the gap between our liberal
arts education and that of more traditional finance and
business programs across the country. Building upon
the foundation that prior co-presidents Zach Larson
’16 and Emil Henry ’16 laid, I have begun to beef up our
educational segments and create a new speaker series
involving lectures from seasoned finance professionals.
This was only possible by first spurring committed
membership and consistent attendance. The Peggotty
Investment Club is currently the largest club on campus
recognizing over 80 members of which 40-50 regularly
attend weekly meetings and recruiting events. Members
learn to conduct fundamental equity research, engage
in investment strategy discussions, and begin to develop
their own investment ability.
Entering the 2016-17 academic year the Peggotty
Investment Club continues to shift its focus towards
creating an educational and entertaining environment
to foster the campus’interest in finance. In years past
the club has featured a small contingent of students
interested in investment strategy and pursuing a career
in finance. However, as we move forward, we have
shifted the structure of the club so that we cater to
all ages and experience levels while also producing
talented candidates for on-campus recruiting. This year
we have created well defined positions on our executive
board as well as additional leadership positions amongst
first and second year analysts. This new structure has
allowed us to spur student participation by more
effectively distributing work amongst our members as
the club continues to grow exponentially. Additionally,
we have instituted weekly educational segments
that have supplemented our member’s academic
course loads by providing a foundation in accounting,
fundamental analysis, valuation, modeling, and basic
finance terminology.
Adhering to our constitution, club members actively
manage ~$115,000 of the college’s endowment as of
December 1st. We deal exclusively with long positions
amongst seven target equity sectors. Investment
decisions adhere to a strict buy and hold strategy
rooted in group made intrinsic value targets. We
gauge performance relative to that of the S&P 500, our
benchmark index, featuring modest absolute returns
and lagging relative returns over the last ten years.
The following pages seek to highlight club member’s
experiences in the finance industry this past summer as
well as provide some insights from our analysts.
Moving forward, we hope to continue to grow the club
both on-campus, as well as throughout our alumni
network. With this in mind, please do not hesitate
to visit our website at www.peggottyic.com or
contact myself or Edward Parsons (Vice President) at
astutzma@conncoll.edu & eparson2@conncoll.edu
with any queries.
A N D R E W S T U T Z M A N ‘17 P R E S I D E N T
2. P E G G O T T Y N E W S L E T T E R
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INTERNSHIPSPOTLIGHTS
ANDREW STUTZMAN ‘17
P R E S I D E N T
EATON VANCE
Andrew joined Eaton Vance Investment Managers
(EV) in Boston, MA this summer as an Equity
Research Intern for 12 weeks. He was a member
of the Value Team where he assisted the portfolio
manager and various analysts in the collaborative
management of $12B in assets. In addition he
contributed to weekly value investment strategy
discussions, attended Lunch & Learn seminars,
participated in two service days, and led Eaton
Vance to a fourth place finish in the Corporate
Challenge Charity Regatta.
As part of the Value Team, Andrew conducted
exhaustive research on the Indian and Chinese
smartphone markets, built a complex model
for a proposed chemical company merger, and
produced a report that back tested the efficacy of
five different valuation metrics over the past 20
years. He worked closely with sell side research
analysts and the technology & chemicals analysts
at Eaton Vance to deepen his knowledge of
investor psychology and his own investment
ability.
For the culmination of Andrew’s internship, he
pitched a position in Apple Inc. for the Value
Portfolio with the technology analyst. The Value
Team agreed the company was a good investment
and voted to establish an active weight in the
Value Portfolio.
Andrew will be rejoining Eaton Vance Investment
Managers as an Equity Research Associate after
graduation.
AUSTIN ESSERY ‘17
H E A D S E C T O R A N A LY S T
T E C H N O L O G Y
FINANCIAL FOUNDATIONS
Austin spent this past summer as a Financial
Planning Intern at Financial Foundations in
Westborough, MA where he engaged with an
advisory team responsible for $500 million in
assets under management.
During his time at Financial Foundations, Austin
prepared and interpreted weekly market updates
and reports for higher management. Austin
also had the opportunity to assist advisors with
operational tasks and shadow portfolio managers
as they assembled investment strategies for high
profile clients. He was assigned various research
projects on the impact of particular global events
on the holdings of current clients. Over the course
of the 10-week internship, he also conducted
an extensive project calculating the Required
Minimum Distributions (RMDs) of qualified clients.
Austin is currently pursuing career opportunities
in Banking, Equity & Fixed Income Research, and
various other finance related fields.
AUSTIN DACUNHA ‘17
H E A D S E C T O R A N A LY S T
E N E R G Y
UBS
Austin joined UBS in June as a summer analyst
in their ICS Sales & Trading summer internship
program. Over the course of the 10 weeks, he
completed 3 rotations across equities and fixed
income in addition to participating in weekly desk-
specific sales pitches, a derivatives fundamentals
course, and attending various speaker series.
As part of the institutional equity sales desk, Austin
attended buy-side client meetings to discuss
equity research reports, market trends, and risk
management strategies. After his team had left,
Austin would send out a recap for the for the sales
desk summarizing the day’s trading activity and
major macro headlines. During his time with the
cash equities trading/sales-trading desk, Austin
was able to develop his trading skills by shadowing
traders and attending a series of open outcry
simulations. He would also provide overnight FX
3. market color and headlines for the international ADR
traders before they arrived to the office.
Lastly, at the end of his final rotation on the G10
FX spot desk, Austin pitched a potential currency
trade to senior management utilizing information he
learned from shadowing traders on the credit, FX and
rates desks.
Austin will be rejoining UBS Investment Bank next Fall
as an analyst on the cash equities trading desk after
spending a month in London for training.
HUNTER ROSENTHALL ‘18
P R C O O R D I N AT O R &
H E A D S E C T O R A N A LY S T
E N E R G Y
BLUEWAVE CAPITAL
Hunter joined BlueWave Capital in Boston, MA this
summer. BlueWave is a leading solar development
company focused on large scale solar development.
While Hunter was at BlueWave he worked within
BlueWave Finance Group. Hunter had the opportunity
to learn about the new developing renewable
energy market and the financing behind these solar
developments. Additionally, Hunter focused on
the solar loan program as he developed financial
projections for the solar loan product. One of
Hunter’s main projects was building out models
for the upcoming year that compiled BlueWave’s
solar projects within the northeast. Hunter had a
great experience at BlueWave and he gained lots of
exposure to the renewable energy field.
Hunter is currently pursuing internship opportunities
for this upcoming summer in renewable energy
finance.
MACK DOWLING ‘17
H E A LT H C A R E A N A LY S T
BROWN BROTHERS
HARRIMAN
This past summer Mack interned in New York City
at Brown Brothers Harriman, the oldest and largest
private bank still operating in the United States.
Mack worked specifically with the Private Wealth
Management team during his time there. His regular
morning duties included researching portfolio
holdings of BBH’s core assets and creating morning
briefings that would be distributed to his team.
Mack would take part in regular client holding
analysis, as well as client relationship servicing
exercises. He made use of Morningstar, Bloomberg
LP, as well as an array of client servicing products to
further his exposure to the markets and familiarize
himself with BBH’s philosophy.
One of the main projects Mack worked on this past
summer was a stock-pitch competition that was
held between teams made up of all of the Private
Banking interns. The goal of this competition was
to select a company that the interns believed met
a set of guidelines necessary to be added to BBH’s
“Core Select”portfolio offered to clients. These
requirements ranged from buying the stock at a 25%
discount to its intrinsic value, to the management
style of the company, to an array of other factors.
Mack’s team worked together to create a detailed
DCF model and a pitch book that were presented to a
committee of BBH Partners. Mack’s team came in 1st
place for the competition.
Mack will be joining BBH full time as an analyst in
Private Wealth Management, in the Private Banking
group this fall.
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D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 6
F I N D T H E M O N L I N K E D I N
ANDREW STUTZMAN www.linkedin.com/in/AndrewjStutzman
AUSTIN ESSERY www.linkedin.com/in/Austin-Essery
AUSTIN DACUNHA www.linkedin.com/in/AustinDacunha
HUNTER ROSENTHALL www.linkedin.com/in/Hunter-Rosenthall
4. P E G G O T T Y N E W S L E T T E R
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INTERNSHIPSPOTLIGHTS
ERIK ROST ‘18
T E C H N O L O G Y A N A LY S T
MAINE STATE HOUSING
AUTHORITY
Erik had the opportunity to intern at Maine
State Housing Authority this summer. While
Erik was there he worked in the Treasury
and the Communications and Planning
department.
One of the biggest responsibilities that
the Treasury has is to issue bonds to fund
all of MSHA’s operations. Erik was able to
work closely with the head of the Treasury
department and he oversaw all of the steps
involved in the process of issuing bonds.
The calls between MSHA and the investment
bankers particularly interested him. He could
ask a question along the lines of“how are
the markets today?”and the banker would
begin by responding with a really open ended
macro approach of; x, y, and z are happening
overseas which affects the U.S market this
and that way. Then he would synthesize this
knowledge to say how it impacted the specific
deal that the MSHA was working on.
Erik learned a lot about how to structure a
deal to best fit the companies short and long
term capital requirements. This could be done
by issuing more or less bonds, altering the
maturity dates, or accelerating the process
in anticipation of higher interest rates in the
future.
This experience has led Erik to further pursue
a position within a Treasury department or
Investment Banking.
JAKE VARSANO ‘18
E N E R G Y A N A LY S T
BNY MELON
Jake had the opportunity to work in the Global
Institutional Accounting & Risk Services group
at BNY Mellon this summer.
During the internship, Jake was responsible
for conducting User Acceptance Testing for
the development of a financial software. The
software was aimed to serve as an internal
component of the business that would enable
managers to measure various metrics of the
service level agreements the firm had with
its clients (pensions and endowments). While
the position did not involve direct work
with securities it was a great opportunity to
gain experience at one of the world’s largest
financial services institutions.
Jake is currently seeking internship
opportunities in Banking and various other
finance related fields.
F I N D T H E M O N L I N K E D I N
MACK DOWLING www.linkedin.com/in/Mack-Dowling
ERIK ROST www.linkedin.com/in/Erik-Rost .
JAKE VARSANO www.linkedin.com/in/Jacob-Varsano
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J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6
MARKET OUTLOOK 2017 POSITIVE
Our Market Outlook for the coming year appears
to be hinged on several key factors, the most
prominent of those being changes to the federal
funds rate and economic policies under a new
presidential administration. We expect 2017 to
continue a trend of economic growth that favors
domestic corporations and production. The Peggotty
Investment Club predicts a bullish year for U.S. equity
markets, as probability of a recession remains low.
E CO N O M I C O U T LO O K
The Federal Reserve’s behavior over the past six
months in regards to interest rates has emphasized
their data-dependent approach to market evaluation.
Positive job creation data has fueled their optimistic
sentiment. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent
in October with a year-over-year pace of 1.6 percent,
on target with the Fed’s 2.0 percent inflation goal.
Additionally, unemployment fell to 4.9 percent
in October with voluntary quits rising. We expect
unemployment to rest within the 4.7-4.9 percent
range. Coupled with a consumer spending increasing
at a 2.1 percent annual rate and a 25.5 percent
increase in housing starts, we expect a 25 basis point
rise at the December meeting with two more rate
hikes in 2017.
The U.S. dollar currently remains strong. With
expected inflation driving rate hikes, the strength
of the dollar will likely decrease in 2017, improving
the attractiveness of global markets and leading to
more domestic production. The U.S. housing market
remains strong with the Case-Shiller 20-City Index
at 191.5, riding off of supply scarcity. With increasing
housing starts and interest rates we anticipate the
short run market to correct this small bubble in early
2017, while government tax cuts and deregulation
will boost the industry in the long run.
GDP growth over the next year hinges on whether
President-elect Donald Trump decides to pursue
more protectionist trade policies with actions against
NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. If so, we
expect to see increased domestic growth in the
manufacturing and energy sectors. The president
elect has inherited a strong economy; with the
economy growing at 2.9 percent form July to
September. GDP is forecasted to grow at a 2.2 percent
pace, over the 1.6 percent pace of 2016.
The Peggotty Investment Club expects oil prices
to rise in 2017 and stabilize around $55 a barrel.
The anticipated increase in price stems from OPEC’s
success at establishing preliminary production
caps at the beginning of the fourth quarter 2016.
Increases in U.S. oil production will help cushion
price increases, as government deregulation of the
industry expands production capabilities.
F U N D A M E N TA L O U T LO O K
Reflected in the large-scale movement out of fixed
income and in to equity markets at the beginning the
fourth quarter, the election has proved a generous
boost to markets. The incumbent president has
inherited a healthy economy and we expect the
growth pattern to continue.
The Peggotty Investment Club predicts a positive
year for markets. S&P 500 earnings per share are
predicted to increase 16.9% over the current 2016
estimations, advancing to $131 EPS by the end of
2017. We view this increase as a result of changing
regulation under the Trump Administration. The
president’s policies are anticipated to benefit
businesses through deregulatory measures across
sectors, with financials and healthcare receiving the
greatest advantage.
Analysts predict a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.8,
above the index’s 5-year average of 15.0. Based on
these fundamentals, the club maintains its belief that
domestic equities are the asset class of choice. From
a sector assessment, we favor energy, financials, and
healthcare.
S A M R O D I G E R ‘18 M A C R O A N A LY S T
D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 6
6. P E G G O T T Y N E W S L E T T E R
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ANALYST INSIGHTS
P O L I TC A L O U T LO O K
On November 8th, as a Trump victory was looking ever
more plausible, markets began to factor in the implications
of a Trump Presidency on equities with an overnight panic
in futures. While Clinton represented a continuation of the
policies of the Obama Administration, the effects of her
administration were already priced into her candidacy. On
November 9th, the pundits and experts of political science
awoke to eating crow, as they did not adequately account
for the possibility of a highly consequential, low probability
event. In an initial field of 24 possible white swan
candidates among the major parties, Trump emerged as
the black swan. His election was in part driven by his ability
to capitalize on rust belt constituencies in economically
depressed areas who have seen wage stagnation and
anemic economic growth over the past six years. These
voters were driven by loss-aversion and due to their
economic prospects were more risk seeking in their choice
for a candidate in the hopes that his economic populist
polices will help them achieve more favorable economic
conditions.
The implications of Trump’s victory are uncertaint,
however, markets have adjusted to this new and
consequential information favorably as Wall Street rolled
out the welcome mat to Donald Trump on November
9th. The effects that we expect to see on our portfolio are
positive. In our Financial Sector we expect to see growth
as Trump looks to ease back on the Dodd-Frank regulation.
Moreover, as the Fed looks to raise interest rates later
this month, we expect to see a further rise in financials,
although the effects of credit tightening on the overall
economy remain unclear. As the Trump presidency seeks
to increase military spending and Trump himself has
advocated for a large infrastructure project, we expect
to see appreciation in our holdings within the Industrial
Sector. The market continues to be bullish for Trump as it
prepares for the implementation of his fiscal policies. Wall
Street is welcoming the prospect of lower corporate and
personal taxes, which could provide economic growth and
further investment capital.
However, there are still concerns over the antitrade
positions that the President-Elect has taken. High tariffs
could result in a trade war and ultimately hurt the
American consumer, as well as raise the cost of production.
Moreover, Trump’s corporatism, as demonstrated by his
threats to Carrier, could result in continued government
intervention in the economy, and the selection of winners
and losers in the market. The potential for dramatic
increases in government spending will also require
substantial borrowing, resulting in an increase in the debt
and will also put upward pressure on interest rates. In the
Peggotty Energy Sector we expect to see an increase in
asset prices with the loosening of energy regulations and
environmental policies. However, this could also mean less
investment in alternative energy sources and a decrease
in government investment and subsidies to this sector.
Due to Republican control of both houses of congress
and the Presidency, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act
is ever more likely, and we could see a deregulation of
the pharmaceutical industry which we believe will lift our
holdings in the Heathcare Sector.
What is clear to us is that there remains a tremendous
amount of uncertainty surrounding the President-Elect’s
policies. However, as his inauguration nears, markets
remain bullish on the prospect of his Presidency.
E D WA R D PA R S O N S ‘18 V I C E P R E S I D E N T
This Year in the Peggotty Investment Club, members have been
encouraged to give presentations on current topics as a
way to boost public speaking skills and to educate the club.
P O S T E L E C T I O N P H A R M A R A L LY
Prior to Trump’s victory, the markets predicted a Clinton
win. For pharmaceuticals, a Clinton victory was a sign of
drug pricing regulation and the expansion of Obamacare.
Additionally, investors worried that Clinton would put
Bernie Sanders, a strong advocate for drug pricing
regulation, in a key role of her administration. The pricing
regulation would have eliminated an estimated $38 billion
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J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 6
ANALYST INSIGHTS
dollars from the value from the pharmaceutical industry.
Thus, pharmaceutical stocks were viewed as the market’s
prediction of a Clinton victory in a similar fashion that the
Mexican Peso was seen as the market’s prediction of a
Trump victory.
The morning after the election, pharmaceuticals
surged. Investors seized the opportunity to invest in
pharmaceuticals, whose stock had been declining due to
the predicted Clinton win. A Trump victory also potentially
means the repeal of Obamacare—although, recent
statements from Trump have left this repeal a bit murky.
The potential repeal of Obamacare could be fairly swift
given that both the House and the Senate are Republican
controlled. However, Obamacare did not have much of an
effect on controlling the pharmaceutical industry; thus,
the potential repeal of Obamacare was not the particular
reason for this boom.
Investors were more excited to pour their money into
pharmaceutical stocks due to a tax reform bill that is set
to pass. With the Republican-controlled Congress, this tax
reform bill will allow the repatriation of approximately $100
billion that the pharmaceutical industry has in overseas
cash. This influx of cash will allow for buybacks and an
influx in M&A activity.
In addition to this tax reform bill, investors were relieved
when the California drug relief act, which set out to
regulate drug pricing, failed to pass. As we have seen with
the spread of marijuana legalization, had the drug relief
act passed in California, it could have served as a model to
other states for widespread drug pricing reform.
A D A M G O L D B E R G ‘18 H E A LT H C A R E A N A LY S T
H O N G K O N G – S H E N Z H E N CO N N E C T
This past August, China continued to loosen its grip on
financial markets by approving a trading link between the
Hong Kong and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Back in 2014,
a similar link was approved involving the Hong Kong and
Shanghai exchanges. The connect with Shenzhen will allow
foreign investors access to Shenzhen’s $3.3 trillion stock
market via Hong Kong. Mainland investors will also be able
to acquire Hong Kong listed stocks, including small cap
companies, for the first time. This could persuade MSCI Inc.
to finally include China in the emerging-markets indexes.
Shenzhen’s exchange is China’s highest volume market
and is home to many“new economy”companies in rapid-
growth sectors including healthcare and technonolg. Large
state-owned companies in slow growth sectors currently
dominate the Shanghai exchange, which makes Shenzhen
a more appealing alternative for foreign investors.
Despite rapid growth, Shenzhen is also a very volatile
market, in part because retail investors heavily dominate
it. Last year Shenzhen plunged 40% from its June peak
following the summer crash, erasing all yearly gains. Many
blame the Chinese government for loosening regulations
and allowing uneducated ordinary Chinese citizens access
to first-time investing. Extreme leverage and a gambling
mindset of Chinese investors have caused the creation of
bubbles and high volatility in China’s markets. Shenzhen’s
stock exchange also trades at much higher multiples
relative to the US market. The influx of experienced
foreign institutional investors will likely stabilize pricing
and subdue volatility in the long-term. In the meantime,
slowing economic growth, a weakening Yuan, and constant
geopolitical clashes in Asia may cause Shenzhen’s tech-
heavy exchange to become even more volatile in the first
few days of exposure to the outside trading world.
C A R T E R L A I B L E ‘18 T E C H N O LO G Y A N A LY S T
C LO S I N G S TAT E M E N T
Next semester we will continue our efforts of fostering
learning and engagement as we plan to invite various
speakers, host a panel consisting of the founding members
of Peggotty, and begin to develop a relationship with the
Coast Guard Academy’s Investment Club across the street.
In the years to come we hope to move forward with a
group of students who have a strong base of financial
knowledge and who are capable of competing with the
most competitive candidates from other elite institutions.
E D WA R D PA R S O N S ‘18 V I C E P R E S I D E N T
The Peggotty Newsletter is put together by Andrew Stutzman‘17 and Hunter Rosenthal ‘18.
No part of this written material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by
any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of The Peggotty Investment Club.
D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 6