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"GROWTH	
  IN	
  EMERGING	
  MARKETS	
  WITH	
  SPECIAL	
  INTEREST	
  IN	
  INDIA"	
  
27	
  August	
  	
  2014	
  
Amit	
  Mehta	
  
Contents	
  
•  Tata	
  Capital	
  –	
  my	
  employer	
  
•  Emerging	
  Markets	
  –	
  A	
  discussion	
  
•  The	
  Changing	
  India	
  
•  OpportuniAes	
  and	
  accessing	
  India	
  -­‐	
  	
  a	
  pracAcal	
  view	
  
	
  
2	
  
Tata	
  Capital	
  Limited	
  
3	
  
Overview	
  
n  Tata	
  Capital	
  (TCL)	
  is	
  a	
  full	
  service	
  Non	
  Banking	
  Finance	
  Company	
  (NBFC)	
  having	
  presence	
  across	
  
corporate	
  finance,	
  consumer	
  finance,	
  private	
  equity,	
  investment	
  banking	
  and	
  brokerage	
  
n  TCL	
  represents	
  the	
  thrust	
  of	
  Tata	
  Sons	
  in	
  the	
  field	
  of	
  financial	
  services.	
  
n  Over	
  3,500	
  employees	
  and	
  presence	
  in	
  India,	
  London	
  and	
  Singapore.	
  
Products	
  and	
  Services	
  Offered	
  
■  Offers	
  range	
  of	
  travel	
  related	
  soluAons	
  from	
  AckeAng,	
  visa	
  and	
  passport	
  facilitaAon	
  to	
  forex	
  Travel	
  and	
  Forex	
  
services	
  
■  Leverages	
  the	
  Tata	
  advantage	
  with	
  mulAple	
  sourcing,	
  evaluaAon,	
  value	
  addiAon	
  and	
  realizaAon	
  
benefits	
  
Private	
  Equity	
  
■  Offers	
  broking	
  and	
  distribuAon	
  services	
  to	
  retail	
  and	
  insAtuAonal	
  customers	
  SecuriAes	
  
■  Offers	
  a	
  diverse	
  mix	
  of	
  retail	
  offerings	
  like	
  consumer	
  loan	
  products,	
  investment	
  services	
  and	
  advisory	
  
services	
  
Consumer	
  Finance	
  
&	
  Advisory	
  
■  Offers	
  financing	
  of	
  infrastructure	
  projects,	
  construcAon	
  equipment	
  and	
  leasing	
  Infrastructure	
  
Finance	
  
Commercial	
  
Finance	
  	
  
■  Offers	
  term	
  loans,	
  working	
  capital	
  loans,	
  channel	
  finance,	
  equipment	
  finance,	
  lease	
  rental	
  discounAng,	
  
bill	
  discounAng	
  and	
  structured	
  financing	
  
■  Offers	
  M&A	
  advisory	
  and	
  debt	
  &	
  equity	
  capital	
  market	
  services	
  to	
  insAtuAonal/corporate	
  enterprises	
  Investment	
  
Banking	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Wholesale	
  	
  	
  Retail	
  
Emerging	
  Markets	
  -­‐	
  Why	
  do	
  we	
  care?	
  
•  A	
  li[le	
  over	
  two	
  decades	
  ago	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  were	
  called	
  3rd	
  world,	
  then	
  the	
  descripAon	
  
became	
  Developing	
  countries,	
  (some	
  of	
  those	
  became	
  Asian	
  Tigers),	
  the	
  next	
  mutaAon	
  was	
  
with	
  Jim	
  O’	
  Neil,	
  coming	
  up	
  with	
  the	
  term	
  BRIC.	
  Now	
  it	
  is	
  fashionable	
  to	
  call	
  these	
  markets	
  
“High	
  Growth	
  Markets”.	
  	
  
•  The	
  Financial	
  Crisis	
  and	
  the	
  rebalancing	
  of	
  the	
  world	
  economy	
  
•  BRICS	
  –	
  share	
  of	
  world	
  GDP	
  –	
  1990	
  –	
  15%	
  to	
  35%	
  today.	
  With	
  China	
  the	
  dominant	
  player.	
  
•  Shig	
  in	
  economic	
  demand	
  –	
  Economists	
  at	
  Credit	
  Agricolè	
  forecast	
  that	
  by	
  2020	
  EM	
  >	
  50%	
  
of	
  the	
  world	
  economy.	
  	
  
•  Trends	
  &	
  insAtuAonal	
  changes:	
  Increase	
  in	
  South	
  –	
  South	
  trade,	
  formaAon	
  of	
  the	
  G20	
  
naAons,	
  BRIC	
  bank,	
  amongst	
  other	
  things.	
  	
  
•  Social	
  factors	
  –	
  immigraAon,	
  pandemics	
  etc.	
  
	
   4	
  
Emerging	
  Markets	
  -­‐	
  Why	
  do	
  we	
  care?	
  
	
  
•  Standard	
  Chartered	
  –	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  China 	
   	
  USA	
  
	
  In	
  2020	
  GDP	
   	
  US$24.6T	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  US$23.3T	
  
	
  In	
  2010	
  GDP	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  US$5.7T 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  US$14.6T	
  
	
  
•  Today	
  India’s	
  GDP	
  puts	
  it	
  at	
  the	
  10th	
  largest	
  economy	
  and	
  in	
  Purchasing	
  Power	
  Parity	
  
terms	
  the	
  3rd	
  largest.	
  By	
  2020	
  India’s	
  economy	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  be	
  3rd	
  or	
  4th	
  largest	
  in	
  
absolute	
  terms.	
  	
  
•  The	
  Importance	
  of	
  Demographics	
  –	
  a	
  historical	
  perspecAve	
  
•  Importance	
  of	
  GDP	
  to	
  the	
  quality	
  of	
  Life?	
  
5	
  
DefiniGon	
  of	
  Emerging	
  Markets?	
  
•  Importance	
  to	
  understand	
  what	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  are,	
  to	
  ensure	
  alignment	
  of	
  
investment	
  and	
  expectaAons.	
  
•  What	
  do	
  Prof.	
  Krishna	
  Palepu	
  and	
  Prof.	
  Tarun	
  Khanna	
  of	
  HBS	
  think?	
  –	
  Markets	
  where	
  
InsAtuAonal	
  Voids	
  resulAng	
  in	
  higher	
  cost	
  of	
  TransacAons,	
  asymmetry	
  of	
  informaAon	
  and	
  
difficulty	
  of	
  bringing	
  buyers	
  and	
  sellers	
  together.	
  Ranking	
  according	
  to	
  GDP	
  is	
  not	
  the	
  way	
  
to	
  decide	
  of	
  a	
  market	
  is	
  developed.	
  
•  Market	
  structures	
  are	
  a	
  product	
  of	
  History,	
  PoliAcal,	
  Legal,	
  Economic	
  and	
  Cultural	
  forces	
  
within	
  a	
  country.	
  All	
  emerging	
  markets	
  feature	
  insAtuAonal	
  voids,	
  however,	
  although	
  the	
  
parAcular	
  combinaAon	
  and	
  severity	
  of	
  these	
  voids	
  varies	
  from	
  market	
  to	
  market	
  	
  
6	
  
What	
  the	
  experts	
  say	
  –	
  How	
  do	
  you	
  succeed?	
  
McKinsey	
  &	
  Co	
  –	
  The	
  defining	
  opportunity	
  of	
  our	
  Ames	
  –	
  US$30trillion	
  of	
  annual	
  
consumpAon	
  by	
  2025.	
  	
  
•  Go	
  ager	
  Urban	
  growth	
  clusters	
  
•  Tune	
  into	
  the	
  pulse	
  of	
  the	
  market	
  to	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  idenAfy	
  Amings	
  and	
  triggers	
  of	
  what	
  they	
  
call	
  explosive	
  growth.	
  	
  
•  Play	
  a	
  segmented	
  market	
  game	
  that	
  spans	
  a	
  range	
  of	
  price	
  points	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  segments	
  
which	
  are	
  idenAfied	
  based	
  on	
  “local	
  relevance”	
  and	
  opportunity	
  for	
  “global	
  scale”	
  	
  
•  To	
  build	
  brands	
  that	
  stand	
  for	
  Trust	
  and	
  to	
  take	
  charge	
  of	
  all	
  the	
  nodes	
  from	
  factory	
  to	
  
consumer	
  –	
  i.e.	
  route	
  to	
  market.	
  	
  
	
  
Boston	
  ConsulGng	
  Group	
  –	
  The	
  US$10T	
  prize	
  that	
  India	
  &	
  China	
  will	
  harbor	
  	
  by	
  2020	
  	
  
•  Companies	
  must	
  be	
  relevant	
  to	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  sensiAzed	
  to	
  the	
  emoAonal	
  needs	
  and	
  
aspiraAons	
  that	
  consumer	
  have	
  and	
  deliver	
  against	
  them.	
  These	
  include	
  be[erment	
  of	
  
their	
  children,	
  the	
  desire	
  to	
  “live	
  big	
  for	
  less”	
  and	
  signal	
  their	
  affluence,	
  to	
  be	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  be	
  
seen	
  to	
  be	
  “discerning,	
  informed	
  and	
  listened	
  to.	
  	
  
	
  
7	
  
What	
  the	
  experts	
  say	
  –	
  How	
  do	
  you	
  succeed?	
  
	
  	
  
Bain	
  &	
  Company	
  –	
  set	
  of	
  rules	
  –	
  common	
  pracAces	
  that	
  emerging	
  market	
  winners	
  share	
  
	
  	
  
•  Market	
  strategy	
  rules	
  are	
  to	
  target	
  the	
  mass	
  market	
  to	
  achieve	
  scale	
  in	
  “distribuAon,	
  
brand	
  building,	
  and	
  operaAons.	
  To	
  localize	
  all	
  elements	
  of	
  the	
  total	
  offer	
  bundle	
  to	
  
consumers	
  such	
  as	
  distribuAon,	
  packaging,	
  and	
  consumer	
  preferences.	
  And	
  to	
  provide	
  
“good	
  enough”	
  products,	
  which	
  offer	
  be[er	
  quality	
  than	
  low	
  –	
  end	
  compeAAon	
  and	
  at	
  
higher	
  price	
  points	
  which	
  are	
  affordable	
  to	
  consumers	
  yet	
  generate	
  profit	
  for	
  the	
  
company.	
  
8	
  
Emerging	
  Markets	
  require	
  a	
  different	
  framework	
  
•  In	
  this	
  parAcular	
  market,	
  which	
  market	
  insAtuAons	
  are	
  working,	
  and	
  which	
  insAtuAons	
  
are	
  missing?	
  
	
  
•  Which	
  part	
  of	
  our	
  business	
  model	
  can	
  be	
  adversely	
  affected	
  by	
  these	
  insAtuAonal	
  voids?	
  	
  
	
  
•  How	
  can	
  we	
  build	
  compeAAve	
  advantage	
  based	
  on	
  our	
  ability	
  to	
  navigate	
  the	
  insAtuAonal	
  
voids?	
  
	
  
•  How	
  can	
  we	
  profit	
  from	
  the	
  structural	
  reality	
  of	
  emerging	
  markets	
  by	
  idenAfying	
  
opportuniAes	
  to	
  fill	
  voids,	
  served	
  by	
  the	
  market	
  intermediaries.	
  	
  
9	
  
HBS,	
  Prof.	
  Palepu	
  &	
  Prof.	
  Khanna’s	
  Toolkit	
  help	
  to	
  understand	
  
•  The	
  Macro	
  Context	
  
•  Market	
  segments	
  –	
  these	
  are	
  disAnguished	
  not	
  only	
  by	
  income	
  and	
  prices	
  but	
  also	
  needs,	
  
tastes	
  and	
  psychological	
  characterisAcs.	
  	
  
	
  Global	
  	
  
	
  Middle	
  Class	
  	
  
	
  Aspiring	
  
	
  Bo[om	
  of	
  the	
  Pyramid	
  
	
  
•  The	
  Product	
  markets	
  –	
  retail	
  –	
  super	
  markets,	
  credit	
  card	
  usage	
  
	
  
•  Labour	
  markets	
  	
  
	
  
•  Capital	
  markets	
  
10	
  
Broad	
  Strategic	
  Choices	
  –	
  as	
  per	
  HBS	
  Profs.	
  	
  
Once	
  managers	
  understand	
  	
  the	
  market,	
  the	
  Broad	
  strategic	
  choices	
  faced	
  are:	
  
	
  
•  Which	
  aspect	
  of	
  the	
  exisAng	
  business	
  model	
  to	
  replicate	
  or	
  adapt?	
  
	
  
•  Should	
  they	
  compete	
  or	
  go	
  it	
  alone?	
  –	
  MulAnaAonals	
  bring	
  brands,	
  capital,	
  talent	
  and	
  
resources	
  –	
  do	
  they	
  have	
  local	
  knowledge	
  to	
  overcome	
  insGtuGonal	
  voids?	
  
	
  
•  Accept	
  or	
  a[empt	
  to	
  change	
  market	
  context	
  –	
  are	
  some	
  of	
  the	
  insGtuGonal	
  void’s	
  
opportuniGes?	
  
	
  
•  Enter,	
  wait	
  or	
  exit?	
  –	
  Evaluate	
  e.g.	
  Retail	
  D.I.Y	
  Chains	
  
11	
  
VariaGons	
  within	
  the	
  large	
  markets	
  in	
  India	
  &	
  China	
  
•  These	
  markets	
  are	
  large	
  and	
  they	
  vary	
  hugely	
  within	
  the	
  confines	
  of	
  a	
  country.	
  This	
  is	
  not	
  
easy	
  for	
  naAonals	
  of	
  those	
  countries	
  too.	
  	
  
	
  	
  
•  Financial	
  Times,	
  London,	
  23	
  August	
  2014-­‐	
  “Chinese	
  pilots	
  told	
  to	
  lose	
  the	
  accent	
  by	
  1	
  
January	
  2016”.	
  Pilots	
  face	
  ejecAon	
  from	
  cockpits	
  if	
  their	
  accents	
  fail	
  to	
  pass	
  the	
  muster.	
  
Under	
  new	
  rules,	
  pilots	
  will	
  have	
  to	
  pass	
  ”level	
  four”	
  test	
  of	
  Mandarin	
  Chinese.	
  Bad	
  news	
  
if	
  you	
  have	
  a	
  thick	
  accent.	
  China	
  has	
  56	
  ethnic	
  groups	
  and	
  speak	
  80	
  languages	
  and	
  
dialects.	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  
•  India	
  has	
  29	
  States	
  and	
  7	
  union	
  territories.	
  The	
  country’s	
  consAtuAon	
  has	
  defined	
  22	
  
major	
  languages	
  but	
  the	
  reality	
  is	
  that	
  there	
  are	
  a	
  few	
  hundred	
  languages	
  spoken	
  with	
  
numerous	
  dialects.	
  Fortunately	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  formal	
  business	
  is	
  done	
  in	
  English.	
  	
  
	
  
12	
  
ContrasGng	
  GDP	
  and	
  populaGon	
  levels	
  across	
  India’s	
  states	
  	
  
13	
  
Source:	
  Economist	
  Intelligence	
  Unit	
  
Changing	
  India	
  
•  India	
  is	
  an	
  aspiraAonal	
  society.	
  People	
  work	
  hard	
  to	
  improve	
  their	
  situaAon	
  in	
  life	
  and	
  
have	
  been	
  described	
  by	
  JK	
  Galbraith,	
  a	
  former	
  US	
  Ambassador	
  to	
  India,	
  	
  as	
  extremely	
  
adaptable.	
  	
  
•  Over	
  the	
  last	
  few	
  years	
  the	
  Indian	
  society	
  has	
  been	
  crying	
  out	
  for	
  InsAtuAonal	
  Change.	
  
People	
  do	
  not	
  want	
  cronyism	
  and	
  parAes	
  like	
  the	
  Aam	
  Admi	
  Party	
  (Common	
  man’s	
  party)	
  
have	
  arisen	
  and	
  are	
  asking	
  quesAons.	
  	
  
•  The	
  desire	
  for	
  change	
  has	
  ushered	
  in	
  a	
  new	
  Prime	
  Minister,	
  Mr	
  Narendra	
  Modi	
  with	
  a	
  
significant	
  majority	
  in	
  Government.	
  Mr	
  Modi	
  was	
  previously	
  Chief	
  Minister	
  of	
  Gujarat	
  
since	
  2001	
  and	
  has	
  transformed	
  that	
  state	
  to	
  India’s	
  leading	
  state	
  with	
  a	
  modern	
  
economy	
  –	
  40%	
  manufacturing!	
  
•  Mr	
  Modi	
  has	
  pledged	
  insAtuAonal	
  reform	
  in	
  India,	
  he	
  wants	
  India	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  more	
  inclusive	
  
society	
  and	
  wants	
  to	
  improve	
  the	
  dignity	
  of	
  women.	
  He	
  recognises	
  that	
  young	
  Indians	
  
need	
  jobs	
  and	
  is	
  focusing	
  on	
  quality	
  manufacturing	
  whilst	
  respecAng	
  the	
  environment.	
  To	
  
do	
  this	
  he	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  focus	
  the	
  educaAonal	
  system	
  to	
  improve	
  skills	
  and	
  will	
  use	
  digital	
  
technology	
  to	
  reach	
  out	
  to	
  the	
  people.	
  	
  	
  	
  
•  The	
  recent	
  Indian	
  budget	
  has	
  focused	
  on	
  fiscal	
  consolidaAon,	
  liberalisaAon	
  of	
  sectors	
  such	
  
as,	
  Insurance	
  &	
  Defence,	
  clarified	
  and	
  improved	
  investment	
  rules	
  	
  in	
  Real	
  Estate	
  and	
  
Infrastructure	
  and	
  clarified	
  and	
  assured	
  Foreign	
  Investors	
  of	
  stability	
  in	
  policy.	
  	
   14	
  
15	
  
16	
  
Trends	
  of	
  UrbanisaGon	
  
17	
  
So	
  where	
  are	
  the	
  big	
  Gcket	
  opportuniGes?	
  
	
  
18	
  
	
  
•  Physical	
  infrastructure	
  	
  
•  Public	
  infrastructure	
  subsAtutes	
  –	
  Healthcare,	
  EducaAon	
  and	
  skills,	
  Travel,	
  
communicaAon	
  &	
  transportaAon	
  
•  Consumer	
  durables	
  (producAvity	
  tools)	
  	
  
	
  
•  Quality	
  of	
  life	
  improvers.	
  “Do	
  Good	
  products”	
  and	
  “Feel	
  Good	
  Products”	
  –	
  
perceived	
  as	
  core	
  to	
  life.	
  
	
  
•  Entertainment	
  services,	
  consumer	
  durables	
  that	
  facilitate	
  entertainment	
  
	
  
•  Children	
  centric	
  everything	
  	
  
	
  
19	
  
Sectoral	
  breakup	
  of	
  projected	
  Investment:	
  12th	
  Plan	
  	
  	
  	
  
XI	
  Plan	
   XII	
  Plan	
  
Sectors	
   US$	
  bn	
   Share	
  (%)	
   US$	
  bn	
   Share	
  (%)	
  
Electricity	
  	
   148	
   30.8	
   320	
   31.8	
  
Roads	
  &	
  Bridges	
   86	
   17.9	
   183	
   18.2	
  
TelecommunicaAon	
   90	
   18.8	
   162	
   16.1	
  
Railways	
  	
   48	
   10.0	
   105	
   10.5	
  
IrrigaAon	
  	
   50	
   10.5	
   111	
   11.0	
  
Water	
  supply	
  &	
  
SanitaAon	
  
26	
   5.4	
   57	
   5.7	
  
Ports	
   11	
   2.3	
   24	
   2.4	
  
Airports	
   7	
   1.5	
   15	
   1.5	
  
Storage	
   2	
   0.5	
   5	
   0.5	
  
Oil	
  &	
  Gas	
  Pipelines	
  	
   11	
   2.3	
   24	
   2.4	
  
Total	
   478	
   100.0	
   1006	
   100.0	
  
20	
  
At	
  2006-­‐07	
  prices	
  
Government	
  IniGaGves	
  to	
  Mobilise	
  Investment	
  &	
  Growth	
  
•  NaAonal	
  policy	
  on	
  manufacturing	
  
	
  
•  Government	
  e-­‐	
  Procurement	
  to	
  speed	
  approvals,	
  reduce	
  bureaucracy	
  and	
  increase	
  
transparency.	
  
	
  
•  CreaAon	
  of	
  four	
  Industrial	
  corridors	
  to	
  enable	
  easier	
  planning	
  approvals.	
  	
  
•  Delhi	
  -­‐	
  Mumbai	
  Industrial	
  Corridor	
  (DMIC)	
  
•  Amritsar	
  –	
  Kolkata	
  Industrial	
  Corridor	
  (AKIC)	
  
•  Bengaluru	
  –	
  Mumbai	
  Economic	
  Corridor	
  (BMEC)	
  
•  Chennai	
  –	
  Bengaluru	
  Industrial	
  Corridor	
  (CBIC)	
  
	
  
•  DMIC	
  –	
  is	
  in	
  progress	
  	
  
•  6	
  States	
  
•  1483	
  km	
  	
  
•  14%	
  of	
  the	
  country’s	
  populaAon	
  
•  	
  8	
  new	
  Industrial	
  ciAes	
  with	
  NaAonal	
  Investment	
  and	
  manufacturing	
  zones.	
  
21	
  
Industrial	
  Corridors	
  being	
  planned	
  to	
  follow	
  DMIC	
  
22	
  
RestarGng	
  the	
  engine	
  of	
  Investment	
  and	
  Growth	
  
23	
  
For	
  Consumer	
  good	
  -­‐Three	
  types	
  of	
  India	
  –	
  MulG	
  Gered	
  Structure	
  
	
  	
  
Strata 	
   	
  HH 	
  Pop 	
  Share	
  of	
  Inc. 	
  Share	
  of	
  Exp. 	
  Per	
  Cap	
  GDP	
  
	
  	
  
Top	
  20%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  48.1m 	
  216 	
  55.5%	
   	
   	
  39% 	
   	
  US$3,982	
  
	
  	
  
Next	
  40%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  96.3m 	
  473 	
  29.9% 	
   	
  39.1% 	
   	
  US$980	
  
	
  	
  
Bo[om	
  40%	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  96.3m 	
  521 	
  14.8% 	
   	
  21.9% 	
   	
  US$434	
  
	
  
•  PopulaAon	
  of	
  about	
  1.2bn.	
  The	
  Global	
  segment	
  is	
  1%	
  of	
  the	
  populaAon,	
  with	
  the	
  middle	
  
amounAng	
  to	
  20%.	
  This	
  middle	
  class	
  has	
  been	
  described	
  as	
  the	
  a[racAve	
  market,	
  the	
  
reality	
  is	
  that	
  the	
  middle	
  class	
  is	
  the	
  upper	
  class.	
  Non	
  -­‐	
  middle	
  class	
  expenditure	
  is	
  higher	
  
and	
  income	
  is	
  growing	
  steadily.	
  By	
  2025	
  the	
  “Global	
  segment	
  will	
  grow	
  to	
  2%”	
  but	
  the	
  
Middle	
  Class	
  will	
  grow	
  to	
  41%.	
  	
  
	
  
•  In	
  terms	
  of	
  consumpAon	
  intensity	
  –	
  half	
  of	
  rich	
  India	
  lives	
  in	
  rural	
  India.	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
24	
  
Rama	
  Bijapurkar	
  –	
  a	
  leading	
  strategist’s	
  thoughts	
  on	
  accessing	
  the	
  market	
  
	
  
What	
  companies	
  do?	
  
	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  my	
  exisAng	
  strategy?	
  Instead	
  of	
  my	
  strategy	
  for	
  this	
  market?	
  	
  
•  ConvenAonal	
  wisdom	
  –	
  think	
  global	
  act	
  local,	
  has	
  been	
  interpreted	
  as	
  “keep	
  the	
  religion,	
  
change	
  the	
  ritual”	
  
ReflecAon	
  –	
  
Are	
  you	
  looking	
  for	
  an	
  extension	
  market	
  for	
  your	
  global	
  segment	
  or	
  a	
  local	
  strategy	
  for	
  the	
  
local	
  market?	
  
25	
  
Assessment	
  of	
  Real	
  Opportunity	
  
	
  
Prof.	
  C.K.	
  Prahalad	
  -­‐	
  “While	
  it	
  is	
  true	
  that	
  mulAnaAonals	
  will	
  change	
  Emerging	
  Markets	
  forever,	
  the	
  
reverse	
  is	
  also	
  true”	
  
	
  
•  Prof	
  Prahalad	
  was	
  referring	
  to	
  green	
  fieled	
  thinking	
  and	
  product	
  development	
  that	
  would	
  
create	
  block	
  buster	
  relevance,	
  avoid	
  the	
  value	
  arrogance	
  of	
  global	
  being	
  automaGcally	
  
superior	
  to	
  local,	
  and	
  towards	
  creaGng	
  perceived	
  value	
  advantage.	
  	
  
	
  
•  Needs	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  mulGpronged	
  strategy	
  for	
  a	
  mulAAer	
  market.	
  
	
  
•  The	
  mindset	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  reprogrammed	
  on	
  market	
  evoluAon,	
  changing	
  the	
  center	
  of	
  gravity	
  
of	
  global	
  consumpGon	
  and	
  takeoff	
  threshold	
  of	
  Income.	
  
	
  
•  It	
  is	
  important	
  to	
  assess	
  ready	
  opportunity	
  –	
  whilst	
  an	
  assessment	
  is	
  required	
  of	
  the	
  present	
  
size	
  of	
  the	
  market	
  and	
  how	
  ripe	
  it	
  is	
  for	
  my	
  exisGng	
  strategy,	
  it	
  is	
  also	
  important	
  to	
  assess	
  
how	
  much	
  this	
  opportunity	
  will	
  grow	
  over	
  Gme,	
  as	
  more	
  consumers	
  evolve	
  in	
  income	
  and	
  
sophisAcaAon	
  	
  
•  It	
  is	
  absurd	
  to	
  think	
  that	
  just	
  because	
  income	
  rises,	
  consumpGon	
  behaviors	
  converge	
  –	
  
Poland	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  similar	
  to	
  China.	
  It	
  is	
  also	
  important	
  to	
  assess	
  not	
  just	
  the	
  size	
  of	
  the	
  
opportunity,	
  but	
  the	
  size	
  of	
  my	
  opportunity,	
  that	
  is,	
  of	
  the	
  share	
  that	
  is	
  possible	
  to	
  capture.	
  	
  
26	
  
What	
  race	
  are	
  you	
  running?	
  	
  
•  The	
  macro	
  strategy	
  and	
  micro	
  strategy	
  are	
  equally	
  important.	
  Many	
  MulA	
  NaAonal	
  
Companies	
  do	
  not	
  believe	
  that	
  they	
  are	
  running	
  a	
  different	
  race	
  –	
  hence	
  they	
  believe	
  
running	
  the	
  same	
  race	
  in	
  India	
  will	
  serve	
  them.	
  India	
  is	
  a	
  new	
  race	
  altogether	
  against	
  
new	
  compeGGon,	
  in	
  a	
  new	
  environment	
  with	
  a	
  new	
  customer	
  need.	
  	
  
•  As	
  discussed	
  the	
  3	
  India’s	
  and	
  the	
  fundamental	
  income	
  &	
  demand	
  structure	
  between	
  
Emerging	
  Markets	
  and	
  Developed	
  Markets,	
  where	
  margins	
  are	
  Razor	
  sharp	
  and	
  huge	
  
volumes	
  are	
  possible.	
  	
  This	
  requires	
  a	
  whole	
  different	
  way	
  of	
  doing	
  things	
  dismantling	
  
and	
  redesign	
  of	
  the	
  tried	
  and	
  tested	
  methods	
  of	
  monitoring	
  and	
  managing	
  global	
  
businesses:	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  strategy	
  development	
  processes,	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  performance	
  management	
  and	
  review	
  process,	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  organisaAon	
  design,	
  and	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  power	
  distribuAon	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
27	
  
Examples	
  of	
  Strategies	
  for	
  Emerging	
  markets	
  	
  
Its	
  not	
  only	
  about	
  price–	
  One	
  global	
  leader	
  in	
  Glucometers	
  made	
  money	
  from	
  compeGng	
  with	
  path	
  
labs,	
  and	
  switching	
  diabeGcs	
  to	
  doing	
  tesGng	
  themselves.	
  They	
  gave	
  machine	
  free	
  but	
  made	
  money	
  on	
  
the	
  strips	
  because	
  people	
  tested	
  themselves	
  more	
  ohen	
  with	
  their	
  own	
  machines.	
  In	
  India	
  the	
  advice	
  
was	
  to	
  work	
  with	
  the	
  Path	
  lab	
  and	
  provide	
  a	
  instamaGc	
  service	
  which	
  consumers	
  would	
  pay	
  for	
  to	
  
avoid	
  mulGple	
  visits	
  to	
  the	
  lab.	
  They	
  could	
  not	
  be	
  persuaded	
  at	
  the	
  Gme	
  that	
  their	
  religion	
  was	
  to	
  add	
  
value	
  to	
  diabeGcs	
  by	
  offering	
  self-­‐	
  monitoring	
  of	
  blood	
  glucose	
  and	
  that	
  compeGng	
  with	
  the	
  path	
  lab	
  
was	
  merely	
  one	
  form	
  of	
  ritual	
  to	
  pracGce	
  the	
  religion.	
  	
  
	
  
CreaBon	
  of	
  a	
  new	
  segment	
  -­‐	
  Tata	
  Motors	
  with	
  created	
  a	
  new	
  segment	
  with	
  the	
  launch	
  of	
  Ace	
  a	
  mini-­‐
truck	
  that	
  addressed	
  the	
  small	
  end	
  of	
  commercial	
  vehicle	
  that	
  was	
  previously	
  dominated	
  by	
  the	
  three	
  
wheeler	
  segment.	
  Based	
  on	
  feedback	
  from	
  its	
  customers	
  the	
  company	
  launched	
  a	
  four	
  wheeled	
  mini	
  
truck	
  that	
  had	
  a	
  lower	
  through	
  life	
  usage	
  cost	
  although	
  it	
  had	
  an	
  iniGal	
  higher	
  outlay.	
  This	
  cost	
  
differenGal	
  was	
  met	
  with	
  provision	
  of	
  consumer	
  credit	
  and	
  lots	
  of	
  educaGon	
  to	
  its	
  customers.	
  This	
  
strategy	
  helped	
  Tata	
  Motors	
  expand	
  its	
  sales	
  away	
  from	
  the	
  highly	
  compeGGve	
  and	
  cyclical	
  medium	
  &	
  
large	
  segment	
  of	
  commercial	
  vehicles.	
  	
  
	
  
Industry	
  revoluBon	
  -­‐	
  Tetra	
  Pak	
  has	
  established	
  itself	
  as	
  a	
  developed	
  world	
  champion	
  with	
  its	
  asepGc	
  
packaging	
  for	
  milk	
  and	
  juice–	
  the	
  consumpGon	
  paierns	
  for	
  milk	
  and	
  juice	
  are	
  different	
  in	
  India	
  and	
  
perhaps	
  it	
  could	
  run	
  the	
  India	
  race	
  by	
  developing	
  packaging	
  for	
  chutneys	
  or	
  staple	
  Indian	
  food	
  such	
  as	
  
Dal	
  (pulses)	
  or	
  Sambar	
  (in	
  South	
  India),	
  thereby	
  giving	
  rise	
  to	
  a	
  industry	
  revoluGon	
  in	
  the	
  fresh	
  food	
  
market.	
  	
  
	
  
28	
  
The	
  Mundane	
  issues	
  on	
  accessing	
  the	
  Indian	
  market	
  
•  PercepAons	
  
•  Myths	
  
•  RealiAes	
  
•  Taking	
  the	
  Right	
  Approach	
  
29	
  
Perceived	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  
•  A	
  changing	
  rate	
  of	
  GDP	
  growth	
  
•  Currency	
  fluctuaAons	
  
•  Bribery	
  &	
  corrupAon	
  
•  Complicated	
  bureaucracy	
  
•  Inability	
  to	
  get	
  money	
  in	
  and	
  out	
  
•  Legal	
  complicaAons	
  
•  Inadequate	
  infrastructure	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
	
  
Real	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  
The	
  real	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  or	
  issues	
  which	
  hamper	
  a	
  foreign	
  company	
  doing	
  business	
  in	
  India	
  
	
  
•  Where	
  regulaGons	
  exclude	
  or	
  limit	
  foreign	
  market	
  entry	
  e.g.	
  Defense,	
  media,	
  mulA-­‐brand	
  
retail.	
  
•  Where	
  government	
  departments	
  are	
  required	
  for	
  licensing	
  or	
  clearances	
  (Central/State)	
  
•  Where	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  acquire	
  land	
  
•  When	
  you	
  need	
  a	
  large	
  and	
  ready	
  skilled	
  workforce	
  for	
  a	
  new	
  business	
  
•  When	
  your	
  business	
  is	
  partnering	
  with	
  government	
  or	
  is	
  bidding	
  for	
  public	
  tender	
  projects	
  
•  When	
  your	
  business	
  is	
  in	
  compeAAon	
  with	
  a	
  major	
  Indian	
  incumbent	
  
•  When	
  you	
  do	
  not	
  know	
  what	
  you	
  are	
  doing	
  or	
  you	
  haven’t	
  done	
  your	
  homework	
  
•  When	
  you	
  have	
  not	
  got	
  the	
  right	
  support	
  partners.	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
	
  
 
1.  India	
  is	
  only	
  a	
  market	
  good	
  for	
  cheap	
  labor	
  for	
  outsourcing	
  &	
  tech	
  co’s.	
  
2.  There	
  is	
  no	
  local	
  experAse	
  in	
  our	
  field	
  /	
  we	
  are	
  a	
  niche	
  business	
  
3.  Our	
  products	
  &	
  services	
  are	
  too	
  expensive	
  for	
  the	
  market	
  
4.  We	
  will	
  approach	
  the	
  market	
  the	
  same	
  way	
  we	
  did	
  China	
  (or	
  other	
  markets)	
  
5.  The	
  only	
  way	
  we	
  can	
  enter	
  the	
  market	
  is	
  via	
  a	
  JV	
  partner	
  
6.  We	
  will	
  achieve	
  our	
  goals	
  by	
  having	
  a	
  distributor	
  and	
  will	
  visit	
  once	
  a	
  year	
  
7.  We	
  didn’t	
  need	
  to	
  do	
  detailed	
  market	
  research,	
  because	
  we	
  met	
  a	
  great	
  guy	
  at	
  a	
  trade	
  
show	
  and	
  he	
  is	
  going	
  to	
  represent	
  us	
  locally	
  
8.  We	
  do	
  not	
  have	
  the	
  capital	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  such	
  a	
  big	
  market	
  
9.  The	
  bureaucracy	
  is	
  too	
  complicated	
  and	
  we	
  will	
  be	
  unable	
  to	
  get	
  our	
  money	
  out	
  
	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
	
  
	
  
Market	
  entry	
  myths	
  &	
  misconcepGons	
  
Market	
  entry:	
  the	
  realiGes
	
  
1.  It’s	
  only	
  a	
  market	
  good	
  for	
  cheap	
  labor	
  for	
  tech	
  co’s	
  and	
  blue	
  chip	
  outsourcing	
  
•  Rising	
  middle	
  class	
  of	
  250m+	
  with	
  an	
  appeAte	
  for	
  consumpAon	
  
•  Demographic	
  dividend	
  for	
  consumpAon	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  labor	
  provision	
  (50%	
  of	
  the	
  populaAon	
  is	
  under	
  25	
  years	
  
of	
  age).	
  
2.	
  	
  There	
  is	
  no	
  local	
  experGse	
  in	
  our	
  field	
  /	
  we	
  are	
  quite	
  niche	
  
•  There	
  is	
  an	
  abundant	
  bright,	
  well	
  educated	
  and	
  knowledgeable	
  workforce	
  
•  For	
  every	
  internaAonal	
  product	
  &	
  service	
  India	
  has	
  an	
  equivalent,	
  it	
  just	
  may	
  not	
  be	
  as	
  advanced,	
  as	
  well	
  
made	
  as	
  an	
  internaAonal	
  alternaAve	
  
3.	
  	
  	
  Our	
  products	
  &	
  services	
  are	
  too	
  expensive	
  for	
  the	
  market	
  
•  Value	
  proposiAon	
  key	
  –	
  but	
  it	
  comes	
  in	
  different	
  forms.	
  There	
  is	
  a	
  burgeoning	
  luxury	
  goods	
  market	
  at	
  the	
  
top	
  end,	
  but	
  Indian	
  consumers	
  are	
  also	
  cost/value	
  conscious	
  
4.  We	
  will	
  approach	
  the	
  market	
  the	
  same	
  way	
  we	
  did	
  China	
  (or	
  other	
  markets)	
  
•  India	
  needs	
  to	
  be	
  treated	
  as	
  its	
  own	
  market(s).	
  You	
  will	
  need	
  local	
  guidance	
  and	
  experAse	
  to	
  advise	
  you	
  on	
  
how	
  to	
  tailor	
  &	
  pitch	
  your	
  product/service	
  to	
  the	
  local	
  market	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
	
  
	
  
5.	
  	
  The	
  only	
  way	
  we	
  can	
  enter	
  the	
  market	
  is	
  via	
  a	
  JV	
  partner	
  
•  There	
  are	
  many	
  ways	
  to	
  enter	
  the	
  market.	
  Direct	
  vs.	
  Indirect	
  vs.	
  Incubator.	
  Think	
  about	
  “why”	
  you	
  
are	
  choosing	
  a	
  parAcular	
  strategy?	
  What	
  do	
  you	
  need?	
  What	
  does	
  the	
  future	
  look	
  like?	
  
6.	
  	
  	
  We	
  will	
  achieve	
  our	
  goals	
  by	
  having	
  a	
  distributor	
  and	
  will	
  pay	
  a	
  few	
  visits	
  a	
  year	
  
•  A	
  market	
  as	
  complex	
  and	
  expansive	
  as	
  India	
  needs	
  full	
  Ame	
  local	
  presence	
  if	
  your	
  business	
  is	
  to	
  
succeed.	
  This	
  doesn’t	
  mean	
  distribuAon	
  is	
  the	
  wrong	
  approach,	
  it	
  just	
  needs	
  nurturing	
  
7.	
  	
  	
  We	
  didn’t	
  do	
  detailed	
  market	
  research	
  because	
  we	
  hired	
  a	
  great	
  guy	
  we	
  met	
  at	
  a	
  trade	
  show	
  
•  Do	
  you	
  know	
  your	
  rep/partner(s)?	
  Do	
  you	
  really	
  know	
  your	
  market?	
  	
  
•  Appoint	
  the	
  right	
  people	
  –	
  in	
  the	
  right	
  way	
  
8.	
  	
  	
  We	
  do	
  not	
  have	
  the	
  capital	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  such	
  a	
  big	
  market	
  
•  Establishing	
  a	
  full	
  Ame	
  presence	
  with	
  sales	
  and	
  markeAng	
  resource	
  for	
  a	
  year	
  can	
  only	
  cost	
  you	
  
around	
  $100k	
  (all	
  in).	
  Invest	
  wisely.	
  Establish	
  and	
  build	
  a	
  team	
  as	
  a	
  local	
  does	
  
9.  The	
  bureaucracy	
  is	
  just	
  too	
  complicated	
  and	
  we	
  cant	
  get	
  money	
  in	
  and	
  out	
  
•  Not	
  if	
  you	
  take	
  good	
  advice	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
	
  
Market	
  entry:	
  the	
  realiAes.
Avoid	
  the	
  horror	
  
stories!	
  
Taking	
  the	
  right	
  approach	
  
Whichever	
  model	
  you	
  adopt,	
  make	
  sure	
  you	
  are	
  comfortable	
  with	
  the	
  answers	
  to	
  the	
  following	
  
quesGons:	
  
•  Have	
  I	
  reviewed	
  all	
  opAons	
  for	
  the	
  right	
  route	
  to	
  market?	
  Direct	
  vs.	
  Indirect	
  vs.	
  Other	
  
–  Do	
  I	
  need	
  a	
  partner?	
  Can	
  I	
  do	
  this	
  myself?	
  	
  	
  
•  Have	
  I	
  done	
  my	
  homework	
  on	
  the	
  local	
  market	
  	
  
–  e.g.	
  pricing	
  models,	
  the	
  compeAAon,	
  real	
  cost	
  of	
  landing	
  a	
  product	
  e.g.	
  duAes,	
  shipping,	
  taxes,	
  
storage	
  &	
  distribuAon?	
  
•  Do	
  I	
  understand	
  the	
  consumer?	
  
–  Branding,	
  packaging,	
  pricing,	
  value	
  proposiAon,	
  culture,	
  generaAonal	
  shig	
  
•  Where	
  do	
  I	
  start?	
  Do	
  I	
  aim	
  to	
  cover	
  the	
  whole	
  country?	
  
•  Who	
  is	
  looking	
  aher	
  my	
  interests	
  on	
  the	
  ground?	
  
	
  	
  -­‐	
  Am	
  I	
  recruiAng	
  the	
  right	
  team	
  
•  Who	
  is	
  navigaAng/managing	
  the	
  admin	
  &	
  bureaucracy	
  for	
  me?	
  (legal/tax/regulatory/HR/banking)	
  
•  Do	
  I	
  have	
  the	
  management	
  bandwidth/knowledge	
  at	
  home	
  to	
  manage	
  this?	
  
•  Am	
  I	
  matching	
  expectaAons	
  and	
  reality? 	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
Take	
  the	
  right	
  approach	
  &	
  India	
  
need	
  not	
  be	
  a	
  difficult	
  market	
  
HR	
  ma[ers	
  -­‐	
  local	
  staff	
  are	
  key	
  
If	
  you	
  are	
  serious	
  about	
  developing	
  a	
  business	
  in	
  India	
  	
  having	
  your	
  own	
  person	
  on	
  the	
  ground	
  is	
  a	
  must	
  
•  Do	
  you	
  know	
  who	
  are	
  you	
  hiring?	
  
•  How	
  are	
  you	
  going	
  to	
  manage	
  them?	
  -­‐	
  Hierarchies	
  
•  Have	
  you	
  got	
  the	
  right	
  contract	
  in	
  place?	
  
•  Are	
  you	
  compliant?	
  
•  Are	
  you	
  overpaying?	
  
•  Do	
  you	
  understand	
  what	
  makes	
  a	
  difference	
  to	
  your	
  local	
  staff?	
  
–  Have	
  you	
  got	
  a	
  career	
  /	
  job	
  Atle	
  /	
  salary	
  path	
  mapped	
  out	
  (wage	
  inflaAon?)	
  
•  Who	
  are	
  your	
  clients?	
  Who	
  do	
  they	
  expect	
  to	
  be	
  doing	
  business	
  with?	
  
–  Cultural	
  fit	
  –	
  your	
  business	
  culture	
  vs	
  the	
  needs	
  of	
  the	
  local	
  market	
  
•  Are	
  you	
  prepared	
  for	
  the	
  li[le	
  local	
  differences?	
  
•  Did	
  you	
  know	
  the	
  average	
  Indian	
  employee	
  gets	
  38	
  days	
  holiday	
  per	
  year?	
  
Source:	
  SannamS4	
  
Thank	
  you	
  
I	
  would	
  like	
  to	
  end	
  with	
  two	
  quotes	
  
	
  
“If	
  we	
  could	
  bring	
  eastern	
  wisdom	
  and	
  western	
  efficiency	
  together,	
  we	
  would	
  all	
  be	
  
winners”	
  –	
  Unknown	
  
	
  
“Not	
  everything	
  that	
  counts	
  can	
  be	
  counted,	
  and	
  not	
  everything	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  counted	
  
counts”	
  –	
  A[ributed	
  to	
  Albert	
  Einstein	
  (quoted	
  in	
  George	
  Magus’s	
  book	
  –	
  Uprising)	
  
	
  
	
  
Contact	
  
Amit	
  Mehta	
  
Senior	
  Vice	
  President	
  
Tata	
  Capital	
  Plc	
  
30	
  Mill	
  Bank	
  	
  
London	
  SW1P	
  4WY	
  
	
  
Tel:	
  +44	
  20	
  7975	
  8336	
  
	
  
Email:	
  amit.mehta@tatacapital.com	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
38	
  

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Pdf EM presentation Copenhagen 27 August 2014

  • 1. "GROWTH  IN  EMERGING  MARKETS  WITH  SPECIAL  INTEREST  IN  INDIA"   27  August    2014   Amit  Mehta  
  • 2. Contents   •  Tata  Capital  –  my  employer   •  Emerging  Markets  –  A  discussion   •  The  Changing  India   •  OpportuniAes  and  accessing  India  -­‐    a  pracAcal  view     2  
  • 3. Tata  Capital  Limited   3   Overview   n  Tata  Capital  (TCL)  is  a  full  service  Non  Banking  Finance  Company  (NBFC)  having  presence  across   corporate  finance,  consumer  finance,  private  equity,  investment  banking  and  brokerage   n  TCL  represents  the  thrust  of  Tata  Sons  in  the  field  of  financial  services.   n  Over  3,500  employees  and  presence  in  India,  London  and  Singapore.   Products  and  Services  Offered   ■  Offers  range  of  travel  related  soluAons  from  AckeAng,  visa  and  passport  facilitaAon  to  forex  Travel  and  Forex   services   ■  Leverages  the  Tata  advantage  with  mulAple  sourcing,  evaluaAon,  value  addiAon  and  realizaAon   benefits   Private  Equity   ■  Offers  broking  and  distribuAon  services  to  retail  and  insAtuAonal  customers  SecuriAes   ■  Offers  a  diverse  mix  of  retail  offerings  like  consumer  loan  products,  investment  services  and  advisory   services   Consumer  Finance   &  Advisory   ■  Offers  financing  of  infrastructure  projects,  construcAon  equipment  and  leasing  Infrastructure   Finance   Commercial   Finance     ■  Offers  term  loans,  working  capital  loans,  channel  finance,  equipment  finance,  lease  rental  discounAng,   bill  discounAng  and  structured  financing   ■  Offers  M&A  advisory  and  debt  &  equity  capital  market  services  to  insAtuAonal/corporate  enterprises  Investment   Banking                        Wholesale      Retail  
  • 4. Emerging  Markets  -­‐  Why  do  we  care?   •  A  li[le  over  two  decades  ago  Emerging  Markets  were  called  3rd  world,  then  the  descripAon   became  Developing  countries,  (some  of  those  became  Asian  Tigers),  the  next  mutaAon  was   with  Jim  O’  Neil,  coming  up  with  the  term  BRIC.  Now  it  is  fashionable  to  call  these  markets   “High  Growth  Markets”.     •  The  Financial  Crisis  and  the  rebalancing  of  the  world  economy   •  BRICS  –  share  of  world  GDP  –  1990  –  15%  to  35%  today.  With  China  the  dominant  player.   •  Shig  in  economic  demand  –  Economists  at  Credit  Agricolè  forecast  that  by  2020  EM  >  50%   of  the  world  economy.     •  Trends  &  insAtuAonal  changes:  Increase  in  South  –  South  trade,  formaAon  of  the  G20   naAons,  BRIC  bank,  amongst  other  things.     •  Social  factors  –  immigraAon,  pandemics  etc.     4  
  • 5. Emerging  Markets  -­‐  Why  do  we  care?     •  Standard  Chartered  –                                                                              China    USA    In  2020  GDP    US$24.6T                      US$23.3T    In  2010  GDP                            US$5.7T                          US$14.6T     •  Today  India’s  GDP  puts  it  at  the  10th  largest  economy  and  in  Purchasing  Power  Parity   terms  the  3rd  largest.  By  2020  India’s  economy  is  expected  to  be  3rd  or  4th  largest  in   absolute  terms.     •  The  Importance  of  Demographics  –  a  historical  perspecAve   •  Importance  of  GDP  to  the  quality  of  Life?   5  
  • 6. DefiniGon  of  Emerging  Markets?   •  Importance  to  understand  what  Emerging  Markets  are,  to  ensure  alignment  of   investment  and  expectaAons.   •  What  do  Prof.  Krishna  Palepu  and  Prof.  Tarun  Khanna  of  HBS  think?  –  Markets  where   InsAtuAonal  Voids  resulAng  in  higher  cost  of  TransacAons,  asymmetry  of  informaAon  and   difficulty  of  bringing  buyers  and  sellers  together.  Ranking  according  to  GDP  is  not  the  way   to  decide  of  a  market  is  developed.   •  Market  structures  are  a  product  of  History,  PoliAcal,  Legal,  Economic  and  Cultural  forces   within  a  country.  All  emerging  markets  feature  insAtuAonal  voids,  however,  although  the   parAcular  combinaAon  and  severity  of  these  voids  varies  from  market  to  market     6  
  • 7. What  the  experts  say  –  How  do  you  succeed?   McKinsey  &  Co  –  The  defining  opportunity  of  our  Ames  –  US$30trillion  of  annual   consumpAon  by  2025.     •  Go  ager  Urban  growth  clusters   •  Tune  into  the  pulse  of  the  market  to  be  able  to  idenAfy  Amings  and  triggers  of  what  they   call  explosive  growth.     •  Play  a  segmented  market  game  that  spans  a  range  of  price  points  as  well  as  segments   which  are  idenAfied  based  on  “local  relevance”  and  opportunity  for  “global  scale”     •  To  build  brands  that  stand  for  Trust  and  to  take  charge  of  all  the  nodes  from  factory  to   consumer  –  i.e.  route  to  market.       Boston  ConsulGng  Group  –  The  US$10T  prize  that  India  &  China  will  harbor    by  2020     •  Companies  must  be  relevant  to  as  well  as  sensiAzed  to  the  emoAonal  needs  and   aspiraAons  that  consumer  have  and  deliver  against  them.  These  include  be[erment  of   their  children,  the  desire  to  “live  big  for  less”  and  signal  their  affluence,  to  be  as  well  as  be   seen  to  be  “discerning,  informed  and  listened  to.       7  
  • 8. What  the  experts  say  –  How  do  you  succeed?       Bain  &  Company  –  set  of  rules  –  common  pracAces  that  emerging  market  winners  share       •  Market  strategy  rules  are  to  target  the  mass  market  to  achieve  scale  in  “distribuAon,   brand  building,  and  operaAons.  To  localize  all  elements  of  the  total  offer  bundle  to   consumers  such  as  distribuAon,  packaging,  and  consumer  preferences.  And  to  provide   “good  enough”  products,  which  offer  be[er  quality  than  low  –  end  compeAAon  and  at   higher  price  points  which  are  affordable  to  consumers  yet  generate  profit  for  the   company.   8  
  • 9. Emerging  Markets  require  a  different  framework   •  In  this  parAcular  market,  which  market  insAtuAons  are  working,  and  which  insAtuAons   are  missing?     •  Which  part  of  our  business  model  can  be  adversely  affected  by  these  insAtuAonal  voids?       •  How  can  we  build  compeAAve  advantage  based  on  our  ability  to  navigate  the  insAtuAonal   voids?     •  How  can  we  profit  from  the  structural  reality  of  emerging  markets  by  idenAfying   opportuniAes  to  fill  voids,  served  by  the  market  intermediaries.     9  
  • 10. HBS,  Prof.  Palepu  &  Prof.  Khanna’s  Toolkit  help  to  understand   •  The  Macro  Context   •  Market  segments  –  these  are  disAnguished  not  only  by  income  and  prices  but  also  needs,   tastes  and  psychological  characterisAcs.      Global      Middle  Class      Aspiring    Bo[om  of  the  Pyramid     •  The  Product  markets  –  retail  –  super  markets,  credit  card  usage     •  Labour  markets       •  Capital  markets   10  
  • 11. Broad  Strategic  Choices  –  as  per  HBS  Profs.     Once  managers  understand    the  market,  the  Broad  strategic  choices  faced  are:     •  Which  aspect  of  the  exisAng  business  model  to  replicate  or  adapt?     •  Should  they  compete  or  go  it  alone?  –  MulAnaAonals  bring  brands,  capital,  talent  and   resources  –  do  they  have  local  knowledge  to  overcome  insGtuGonal  voids?     •  Accept  or  a[empt  to  change  market  context  –  are  some  of  the  insGtuGonal  void’s   opportuniGes?     •  Enter,  wait  or  exit?  –  Evaluate  e.g.  Retail  D.I.Y  Chains   11  
  • 12. VariaGons  within  the  large  markets  in  India  &  China   •  These  markets  are  large  and  they  vary  hugely  within  the  confines  of  a  country.  This  is  not   easy  for  naAonals  of  those  countries  too.         •  Financial  Times,  London,  23  August  2014-­‐  “Chinese  pilots  told  to  lose  the  accent  by  1   January  2016”.  Pilots  face  ejecAon  from  cockpits  if  their  accents  fail  to  pass  the  muster.   Under  new  rules,  pilots  will  have  to  pass  ”level  four”  test  of  Mandarin  Chinese.  Bad  news   if  you  have  a  thick  accent.  China  has  56  ethnic  groups  and  speak  80  languages  and   dialects.           •  India  has  29  States  and  7  union  territories.  The  country’s  consAtuAon  has  defined  22   major  languages  but  the  reality  is  that  there  are  a  few  hundred  languages  spoken  with   numerous  dialects.  Fortunately  a  lot  of  formal  business  is  done  in  English.       12  
  • 13. ContrasGng  GDP  and  populaGon  levels  across  India’s  states     13   Source:  Economist  Intelligence  Unit  
  • 14. Changing  India   •  India  is  an  aspiraAonal  society.  People  work  hard  to  improve  their  situaAon  in  life  and   have  been  described  by  JK  Galbraith,  a  former  US  Ambassador  to  India,    as  extremely   adaptable.     •  Over  the  last  few  years  the  Indian  society  has  been  crying  out  for  InsAtuAonal  Change.   People  do  not  want  cronyism  and  parAes  like  the  Aam  Admi  Party  (Common  man’s  party)   have  arisen  and  are  asking  quesAons.     •  The  desire  for  change  has  ushered  in  a  new  Prime  Minister,  Mr  Narendra  Modi  with  a   significant  majority  in  Government.  Mr  Modi  was  previously  Chief  Minister  of  Gujarat   since  2001  and  has  transformed  that  state  to  India’s  leading  state  with  a  modern   economy  –  40%  manufacturing!   •  Mr  Modi  has  pledged  insAtuAonal  reform  in  India,  he  wants  India  to  have  a  more  inclusive   society  and  wants  to  improve  the  dignity  of  women.  He  recognises  that  young  Indians   need  jobs  and  is  focusing  on  quality  manufacturing  whilst  respecAng  the  environment.  To   do  this  he  is  going  to  focus  the  educaAonal  system  to  improve  skills  and  will  use  digital   technology  to  reach  out  to  the  people.         •  The  recent  Indian  budget  has  focused  on  fiscal  consolidaAon,  liberalisaAon  of  sectors  such   as,  Insurance  &  Defence,  clarified  and  improved  investment  rules    in  Real  Estate  and   Infrastructure  and  clarified  and  assured  Foreign  Investors  of  stability  in  policy.     14  
  • 15. 15  
  • 16. 16  
  • 18. So  where  are  the  big  Gcket  opportuniGes?     18     •  Physical  infrastructure     •  Public  infrastructure  subsAtutes  –  Healthcare,  EducaAon  and  skills,  Travel,   communicaAon  &  transportaAon   •  Consumer  durables  (producAvity  tools)       •  Quality  of  life  improvers.  “Do  Good  products”  and  “Feel  Good  Products”  –   perceived  as  core  to  life.     •  Entertainment  services,  consumer  durables  that  facilitate  entertainment     •  Children  centric  everything      
  • 19. 19  
  • 20. Sectoral  breakup  of  projected  Investment:  12th  Plan         XI  Plan   XII  Plan   Sectors   US$  bn   Share  (%)   US$  bn   Share  (%)   Electricity     148   30.8   320   31.8   Roads  &  Bridges   86   17.9   183   18.2   TelecommunicaAon   90   18.8   162   16.1   Railways     48   10.0   105   10.5   IrrigaAon     50   10.5   111   11.0   Water  supply  &   SanitaAon   26   5.4   57   5.7   Ports   11   2.3   24   2.4   Airports   7   1.5   15   1.5   Storage   2   0.5   5   0.5   Oil  &  Gas  Pipelines     11   2.3   24   2.4   Total   478   100.0   1006   100.0   20   At  2006-­‐07  prices  
  • 21. Government  IniGaGves  to  Mobilise  Investment  &  Growth   •  NaAonal  policy  on  manufacturing     •  Government  e-­‐  Procurement  to  speed  approvals,  reduce  bureaucracy  and  increase   transparency.     •  CreaAon  of  four  Industrial  corridors  to  enable  easier  planning  approvals.     •  Delhi  -­‐  Mumbai  Industrial  Corridor  (DMIC)   •  Amritsar  –  Kolkata  Industrial  Corridor  (AKIC)   •  Bengaluru  –  Mumbai  Economic  Corridor  (BMEC)   •  Chennai  –  Bengaluru  Industrial  Corridor  (CBIC)     •  DMIC  –  is  in  progress     •  6  States   •  1483  km     •  14%  of  the  country’s  populaAon   •   8  new  Industrial  ciAes  with  NaAonal  Investment  and  manufacturing  zones.   21  
  • 22. Industrial  Corridors  being  planned  to  follow  DMIC   22  
  • 23. RestarGng  the  engine  of  Investment  and  Growth   23  
  • 24. For  Consumer  good  -­‐Three  types  of  India  –  MulG  Gered  Structure       Strata    HH  Pop  Share  of  Inc.  Share  of  Exp.  Per  Cap  GDP       Top  20%                                    48.1m  216  55.5%      39%    US$3,982       Next  40%                                  96.3m  473  29.9%    39.1%    US$980       Bo[om  40%                        96.3m  521  14.8%    21.9%    US$434     •  PopulaAon  of  about  1.2bn.  The  Global  segment  is  1%  of  the  populaAon,  with  the  middle   amounAng  to  20%.  This  middle  class  has  been  described  as  the  a[racAve  market,  the   reality  is  that  the  middle  class  is  the  upper  class.  Non  -­‐  middle  class  expenditure  is  higher   and  income  is  growing  steadily.  By  2025  the  “Global  segment  will  grow  to  2%”  but  the   Middle  Class  will  grow  to  41%.       •  In  terms  of  consumpAon  intensity  –  half  of  rich  India  lives  in  rural  India.         24  
  • 25. Rama  Bijapurkar  –  a  leading  strategist’s  thoughts  on  accessing  the  market     What  companies  do?     •  What  is  the  market  for  my  exisAng  strategy?  Instead  of  my  strategy  for  this  market?     •  ConvenAonal  wisdom  –  think  global  act  local,  has  been  interpreted  as  “keep  the  religion,   change  the  ritual”   ReflecAon  –   Are  you  looking  for  an  extension  market  for  your  global  segment  or  a  local  strategy  for  the   local  market?   25  
  • 26. Assessment  of  Real  Opportunity     Prof.  C.K.  Prahalad  -­‐  “While  it  is  true  that  mulAnaAonals  will  change  Emerging  Markets  forever,  the   reverse  is  also  true”     •  Prof  Prahalad  was  referring  to  green  fieled  thinking  and  product  development  that  would   create  block  buster  relevance,  avoid  the  value  arrogance  of  global  being  automaGcally   superior  to  local,  and  towards  creaGng  perceived  value  advantage.       •  Needs  to  have  a  mulGpronged  strategy  for  a  mulAAer  market.     •  The  mindset  needs  to  be  reprogrammed  on  market  evoluAon,  changing  the  center  of  gravity   of  global  consumpGon  and  takeoff  threshold  of  Income.     •  It  is  important  to  assess  ready  opportunity  –  whilst  an  assessment  is  required  of  the  present   size  of  the  market  and  how  ripe  it  is  for  my  exisGng  strategy,  it  is  also  important  to  assess   how  much  this  opportunity  will  grow  over  Gme,  as  more  consumers  evolve  in  income  and   sophisAcaAon     •  It  is  absurd  to  think  that  just  because  income  rises,  consumpGon  behaviors  converge  –   Poland  will  not  be  similar  to  China.  It  is  also  important  to  assess  not  just  the  size  of  the   opportunity,  but  the  size  of  my  opportunity,  that  is,  of  the  share  that  is  possible  to  capture.     26  
  • 27. What  race  are  you  running?     •  The  macro  strategy  and  micro  strategy  are  equally  important.  Many  MulA  NaAonal   Companies  do  not  believe  that  they  are  running  a  different  race  –  hence  they  believe   running  the  same  race  in  India  will  serve  them.  India  is  a  new  race  altogether  against   new  compeGGon,  in  a  new  environment  with  a  new  customer  need.     •  As  discussed  the  3  India’s  and  the  fundamental  income  &  demand  structure  between   Emerging  Markets  and  Developed  Markets,  where  margins  are  Razor  sharp  and  huge   volumes  are  possible.    This  requires  a  whole  different  way  of  doing  things  dismantling   and  redesign  of  the  tried  and  tested  methods  of  monitoring  and  managing  global   businesses:      -­‐  strategy  development  processes,      -­‐  performance  management  and  review  process,      -­‐  organisaAon  design,  and      -­‐  power  distribuAon         27  
  • 28. Examples  of  Strategies  for  Emerging  markets     Its  not  only  about  price–  One  global  leader  in  Glucometers  made  money  from  compeGng  with  path   labs,  and  switching  diabeGcs  to  doing  tesGng  themselves.  They  gave  machine  free  but  made  money  on   the  strips  because  people  tested  themselves  more  ohen  with  their  own  machines.  In  India  the  advice   was  to  work  with  the  Path  lab  and  provide  a  instamaGc  service  which  consumers  would  pay  for  to   avoid  mulGple  visits  to  the  lab.  They  could  not  be  persuaded  at  the  Gme  that  their  religion  was  to  add   value  to  diabeGcs  by  offering  self-­‐  monitoring  of  blood  glucose  and  that  compeGng  with  the  path  lab   was  merely  one  form  of  ritual  to  pracGce  the  religion.       CreaBon  of  a  new  segment  -­‐  Tata  Motors  with  created  a  new  segment  with  the  launch  of  Ace  a  mini-­‐ truck  that  addressed  the  small  end  of  commercial  vehicle  that  was  previously  dominated  by  the  three   wheeler  segment.  Based  on  feedback  from  its  customers  the  company  launched  a  four  wheeled  mini   truck  that  had  a  lower  through  life  usage  cost  although  it  had  an  iniGal  higher  outlay.  This  cost   differenGal  was  met  with  provision  of  consumer  credit  and  lots  of  educaGon  to  its  customers.  This   strategy  helped  Tata  Motors  expand  its  sales  away  from  the  highly  compeGGve  and  cyclical  medium  &   large  segment  of  commercial  vehicles.       Industry  revoluBon  -­‐  Tetra  Pak  has  established  itself  as  a  developed  world  champion  with  its  asepGc   packaging  for  milk  and  juice–  the  consumpGon  paierns  for  milk  and  juice  are  different  in  India  and   perhaps  it  could  run  the  India  race  by  developing  packaging  for  chutneys  or  staple  Indian  food  such  as   Dal  (pulses)  or  Sambar  (in  South  India),  thereby  giving  rise  to  a  industry  revoluGon  in  the  fresh  food   market.       28  
  • 29. The  Mundane  issues  on  accessing  the  Indian  market   •  PercepAons   •  Myths   •  RealiAes   •  Taking  the  Right  Approach   29  
  • 30. Perceived  barriers  to  entry   •  A  changing  rate  of  GDP  growth   •  Currency  fluctuaAons   •  Bribery  &  corrupAon   •  Complicated  bureaucracy   •  Inability  to  get  money  in  and  out   •  Legal  complicaAons   •  Inadequate  infrastructure   Source:  SannamS4    
  • 31. Real  barriers  to  entry   The  real  barriers  to  entry  or  issues  which  hamper  a  foreign  company  doing  business  in  India     •  Where  regulaGons  exclude  or  limit  foreign  market  entry  e.g.  Defense,  media,  mulA-­‐brand   retail.   •  Where  government  departments  are  required  for  licensing  or  clearances  (Central/State)   •  Where  you  need  to  acquire  land   •  When  you  need  a  large  and  ready  skilled  workforce  for  a  new  business   •  When  your  business  is  partnering  with  government  or  is  bidding  for  public  tender  projects   •  When  your  business  is  in  compeAAon  with  a  major  Indian  incumbent   •  When  you  do  not  know  what  you  are  doing  or  you  haven’t  done  your  homework   •  When  you  have  not  got  the  right  support  partners.   Source:  SannamS4    
  • 32.   1.  India  is  only  a  market  good  for  cheap  labor  for  outsourcing  &  tech  co’s.   2.  There  is  no  local  experAse  in  our  field  /  we  are  a  niche  business   3.  Our  products  &  services  are  too  expensive  for  the  market   4.  We  will  approach  the  market  the  same  way  we  did  China  (or  other  markets)   5.  The  only  way  we  can  enter  the  market  is  via  a  JV  partner   6.  We  will  achieve  our  goals  by  having  a  distributor  and  will  visit  once  a  year   7.  We  didn’t  need  to  do  detailed  market  research,  because  we  met  a  great  guy  at  a  trade   show  and  he  is  going  to  represent  us  locally   8.  We  do  not  have  the  capital  to  invest  in  such  a  big  market   9.  The  bureaucracy  is  too  complicated  and  we  will  be  unable  to  get  our  money  out     Source:  SannamS4       Market  entry  myths  &  misconcepGons  
  • 33. Market  entry:  the  realiGes   1.  It’s  only  a  market  good  for  cheap  labor  for  tech  co’s  and  blue  chip  outsourcing   •  Rising  middle  class  of  250m+  with  an  appeAte  for  consumpAon   •  Demographic  dividend  for  consumpAon  as  well  as  labor  provision  (50%  of  the  populaAon  is  under  25  years   of  age).   2.    There  is  no  local  experGse  in  our  field  /  we  are  quite  niche   •  There  is  an  abundant  bright,  well  educated  and  knowledgeable  workforce   •  For  every  internaAonal  product  &  service  India  has  an  equivalent,  it  just  may  not  be  as  advanced,  as  well   made  as  an  internaAonal  alternaAve   3.      Our  products  &  services  are  too  expensive  for  the  market   •  Value  proposiAon  key  –  but  it  comes  in  different  forms.  There  is  a  burgeoning  luxury  goods  market  at  the   top  end,  but  Indian  consumers  are  also  cost/value  conscious   4.  We  will  approach  the  market  the  same  way  we  did  China  (or  other  markets)   •  India  needs  to  be  treated  as  its  own  market(s).  You  will  need  local  guidance  and  experAse  to  advise  you  on   how  to  tailor  &  pitch  your  product/service  to  the  local  market   Source:  SannamS4      
  • 34. 5.    The  only  way  we  can  enter  the  market  is  via  a  JV  partner   •  There  are  many  ways  to  enter  the  market.  Direct  vs.  Indirect  vs.  Incubator.  Think  about  “why”  you   are  choosing  a  parAcular  strategy?  What  do  you  need?  What  does  the  future  look  like?   6.      We  will  achieve  our  goals  by  having  a  distributor  and  will  pay  a  few  visits  a  year   •  A  market  as  complex  and  expansive  as  India  needs  full  Ame  local  presence  if  your  business  is  to   succeed.  This  doesn’t  mean  distribuAon  is  the  wrong  approach,  it  just  needs  nurturing   7.      We  didn’t  do  detailed  market  research  because  we  hired  a  great  guy  we  met  at  a  trade  show   •  Do  you  know  your  rep/partner(s)?  Do  you  really  know  your  market?     •  Appoint  the  right  people  –  in  the  right  way   8.      We  do  not  have  the  capital  to  invest  in  such  a  big  market   •  Establishing  a  full  Ame  presence  with  sales  and  markeAng  resource  for  a  year  can  only  cost  you   around  $100k  (all  in).  Invest  wisely.  Establish  and  build  a  team  as  a  local  does   9.  The  bureaucracy  is  just  too  complicated  and  we  cant  get  money  in  and  out   •  Not  if  you  take  good  advice   Source:  SannamS4     Market  entry:  the  realiAes. Avoid  the  horror   stories!  
  • 35. Taking  the  right  approach   Whichever  model  you  adopt,  make  sure  you  are  comfortable  with  the  answers  to  the  following   quesGons:   •  Have  I  reviewed  all  opAons  for  the  right  route  to  market?  Direct  vs.  Indirect  vs.  Other   –  Do  I  need  a  partner?  Can  I  do  this  myself?       •  Have  I  done  my  homework  on  the  local  market     –  e.g.  pricing  models,  the  compeAAon,  real  cost  of  landing  a  product  e.g.  duAes,  shipping,  taxes,   storage  &  distribuAon?   •  Do  I  understand  the  consumer?   –  Branding,  packaging,  pricing,  value  proposiAon,  culture,  generaAonal  shig   •  Where  do  I  start?  Do  I  aim  to  cover  the  whole  country?   •  Who  is  looking  aher  my  interests  on  the  ground?      -­‐  Am  I  recruiAng  the  right  team   •  Who  is  navigaAng/managing  the  admin  &  bureaucracy  for  me?  (legal/tax/regulatory/HR/banking)   •  Do  I  have  the  management  bandwidth/knowledge  at  home  to  manage  this?   •  Am  I  matching  expectaAons  and  reality?          Source:  SannamS4   Take  the  right  approach  &  India   need  not  be  a  difficult  market  
  • 36. HR  ma[ers  -­‐  local  staff  are  key   If  you  are  serious  about  developing  a  business  in  India    having  your  own  person  on  the  ground  is  a  must   •  Do  you  know  who  are  you  hiring?   •  How  are  you  going  to  manage  them?  -­‐  Hierarchies   •  Have  you  got  the  right  contract  in  place?   •  Are  you  compliant?   •  Are  you  overpaying?   •  Do  you  understand  what  makes  a  difference  to  your  local  staff?   –  Have  you  got  a  career  /  job  Atle  /  salary  path  mapped  out  (wage  inflaAon?)   •  Who  are  your  clients?  Who  do  they  expect  to  be  doing  business  with?   –  Cultural  fit  –  your  business  culture  vs  the  needs  of  the  local  market   •  Are  you  prepared  for  the  li[le  local  differences?   •  Did  you  know  the  average  Indian  employee  gets  38  days  holiday  per  year?   Source:  SannamS4  
  • 37. Thank  you   I  would  like  to  end  with  two  quotes     “If  we  could  bring  eastern  wisdom  and  western  efficiency  together,  we  would  all  be   winners”  –  Unknown     “Not  everything  that  counts  can  be  counted,  and  not  everything  that  can  be  counted   counts”  –  A[ributed  to  Albert  Einstein  (quoted  in  George  Magus’s  book  –  Uprising)      
  • 38. Contact   Amit  Mehta   Senior  Vice  President   Tata  Capital  Plc   30  Mill  Bank     London  SW1P  4WY     Tel:  +44  20  7975  8336     Email:  amit.mehta@tatacapital.com         38