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 Minggu 1 - CHAPTER 1: The Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics
 Minggu 2 & 3 - CHAPTER 2: Optimization Techniques and New Management Tools
 Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3: Demand Theory
 Minggu 5 - CHAPTER 4: Demand Estimation
 Minggu 6 - CHAPTER 5: Demand Forecasting
 Minggu 7 - CHAPTER 6: Production Theory and Estimation
 Minggu 8 - CHAPTER 7: Cost Theory and Estimation
 Minggu 9 - CHAPTER 8: Market Structure: Perfect Competition, and Monopoly
 Minggu 10 - CHAPTER 9: Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly and Firm Architecture
 Minggu 11 - CHARTER 11: Pricing Practices
 Minggu 12 - CHAPTER 12: Regulation and Antitrust: The Role of Government in the Economy
 Minggu 13 - CHARTER 13: Risk Analysis
 Minggu 14 - CHARTER 14: Long-Run Investment Decisions: Capital Budgeting
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 1
CHAPTER 1: The Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics
1.1 Ruang lingkup ekonmi manajerial
1.2 Keterkaitannya dengan teori ekonomi, ilmu keputusan dan berbasis area
fungsional dan ilmu adminsitrasiadministrasi bisnis
1.3 Teori perusahaan
1.4 Sifat dan fungsi laba
Minggu 2 & 3
CHAPTER 2: Optimization Techniques and New Management Tools
2.1 Metode penyajian hubungan ekonomi
2.2 Hubungan nilai total, rata-rata dan nilai marginal
3.1 Analisis optimal
3.2 Optimasi multivariat dan optimasi terkendala
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 4
CHAPTER 3: Demand Theory
4.1 Fungsi permintaan
4.2 Konsep elastisitas
4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan manajerial
Minggu 5
CHAPTER 4: Demand Estimation
5.1 Masalah identifikasi
5.2 Penelitian pemasaran
5.3 Pendekatan regresi
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 6
CHAPTER 5: Demand Forecasting
6.1 Arti pentingnya peramalan ekonomi
6.2 Peramalan kualitatif
6.3 Analisis deret waktu
6.4 Teknik penghalusan
6.5 Model ekonometrika
Minggu 7
CHAPTER 6: Production Theory and Estimation
7.1 Organisasi produksi dan fungsi produksi
7.2 Fungsi produksi dengan satu input variabel
7.3 Penggunaan input variabel secara optimal
7.4 Fungsi produksi dengan dua input variabel
7.5 Returnto scale
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 8
CHAPTER 7: Cost Theory and Estimation
8.1 Karakteristik biaya
8.2 Fungsi biaya jangka pendek
8.3. Estimasi biaya
8.4 Kurva pembelajaran
8.5 Peramalan biaya
Minggu 9
CHAPTER 8: Market Structure: Perfect Competition, and Monopoly
9.1 Struktur dan tingkat persaingan
9.2 Klasifikasi struktur pasar
9.3 Pasar persaingan sempurna
9.4 Pasar monopoli
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 10
CHAPTER 9: Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly and Firm Architecture
10.1 Pasar persaingan monopolistic
10.2 Pasar oligopoly
10.3 Dilema narapidana, persaingan harga dan non harga kecurangan kartel
Minggu 11
CHARTER 11: Pricing Practices
11.1 Penetapan harga berbagai jenis produksi
11.2 Diskriminasi harga
11.3 Metode penetapan harga
RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
Minggu 12
CHAPTER 12: Regulation and Antitrust: The Role of Government in the Economy
12.1 Regulasi permintaan
12.2 Eksternalitas dan regulasi
12.3 Regulasi fasilitas umum
Minggu 13
CHARTER 13: Risk Analysis
13.1 Risiko dan ketidak pastian
13.2 Pengukuran risiko
13.3 Pengambilan keputusan dalam ketidak pastian
Minggu 14
CHARTER 14: Long-Run Investment Decisions: Capital Budgeting
14.1 Arti dan pentingnya penganggaran modal
14.2 Proses penganggaran modal
14.3 Biaya modal
References
1. Salvatore, Dominick (2014). Managerial Economics Principles And
Worldwide Applications. Fordham University, New York.
2. Baye, Michael R.(2010). Managerial Economics And Business Strategy. .
The McGraw-Hill Series Economics. Kelley School of Business, Indiana
University.
3. Douglas, Evan J. and Callen,.Scott (1995) .Managerial Economics –
Analysis and Strategy. London : Prentice-Hall.
4. Arsyad, Lincolin. (2000). Ekonomi Manajerial : Ekonomi Mikro Terapan
untuk Manajemen Bisnis.
5. Priono, Bambang Edi. (1997) Manajerial Ekonomi : Analisis Problem,
Kasus untuk Magister Manajemen Program.
Minggu 1- CHAPTER 1
THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF
MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
1.1 Ruang lingkup ekonomi manajerial
1.2 Keterkaitannya dengan teori ekonomi, ilmu keputusan dan
berbasis area fungsional dan ilmu adminsitrasiadministrasi
bisnis
1.3 Teori perusahaan
1.4 Sifat dan fungsi laba
Back
MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
MANAGERIAL
ECONOMICS
Microeconomics
Comparative
Strategy
Statistics
Marketing
Finance
Accounting
Managerial economics has envolved out of microeconomics to provide
guidence for business managers who must make decision an environment
of risk and uncertainty. It integrates into economics a variety of concepts
from accounting, finance, and marketing, and utilizes concepts and tools
from statitics, particulary in the estimation of demand and cost schedules.
It is thus an interdisciplinary, integrative course in the business curriculum
Which leads naturally to the study of competitive strategy.
EKONOMI MANAJERIAL
• Sebagai konsep ilmu manajmen dan riset operasi
• Sebagai kerangka terpadu unukt menganalisis masalah-masalah
pengambilan keputusan dalam dunia usaha
• Ekonomi manajerial menggunakan alat dan teknis analisis ekonomi
untuk menganalisis dan memecahkan masalah-masalah manajerial
• Ekonomi manajerial antara lain berkenaan dengan bagaimana
mengalokasikan sumberdaya yang langkah secara efektif dan efisien
(relevan dengan manajemen non bisnis)
Managerial Economics Defined
• The application of economic theory and the tools of decision science
to examine how an organization can achieve its aims or objectives
most efficiently.
Managerial Decision Problems
Economic theory
Microeconomics
Macroeconomics
Decision Sciences
Mathematical Economics
Econometrics
MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS
Application of economic theory
and decision science tools to solve
managerial decision problems
OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS TO
MANAGERIAL DECISION PROBLEMS
Theory of the Firm
• Combines and organizes resources for the purpose of producing
goods and/or services for sale.
• Internalizes transactions, reducing transactions costs.
• Primary goal is to maximize the wealth or value of the firm.
Value of the Firm
The present value of all expected future profits
n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV
10%
0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000-
1 21,000 0.909 19,091 - 19,091
2 20,000 0.826 16,529 - 16,529
3 19,000 0.751 14,275 - 14,275
4 18,000 0.683 12,294 - 12,294
5 17,000 0.621 10,556 - 10,556
6 16,000 0.564 9,032 - 9,032
7 15,000 0.513 7,697 - 7,697
8 14,000 0.467 6,531 - 6,531
9 13,000 0.424 5,513 - 5,513
10 12,000 0.386 4,627 - 4,627
Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 106,145 100,000 6,145
Catatan: 1.06
NPV= 6,145 Layak
B/C (PI) = 1.06 Layak
ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF decline
n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV
10%
0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000-
1 12,000 0.909 10,909 - 10,909
2 13,000 0.826 10,744 - 10,744
3 14,000 0.751 10,518 - 10,518
4 15,000 0.683 10,245 - 10,245
5 16,000 0.621 9,935 - 9,935
6 17,000 0.564 9,596 - 9,596
7 18,000 0.513 9,237 - 9,237
8 19,000 0.467 8,864 - 8,864
9 20,000 0.424 8,482 - 8,482
10 21,000 0.386 8,096 - 8,096
Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 96,626 100,000 -3,374
Catatan: 0.97
NPV= 3,374- Tidak Layak
B/C (PI) = 0.97 Tidak Layak
ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF growth
n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV
10%
0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000-
1 16,500 0.909 15,000 - 15,000
2 16,500 0.826 13,636 - 13,636
3 16,500 0.751 12,397 - 12,397
4 16,500 0.683 11,270 - 11,270
5 16,500 0.621 10,245 - 10,245
6 16,500 0.564 9,314 - 9,314
7 16,500 0.513 8,467 - 8,467
8 16,500 0.467 7,697 - 7,697
9 16,500 0.424 6,998 - 6,998
10 16,500 0.386 6,361 - 6,361
Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 101,385 100,000 1,385
Catatan: 1.01
NPV= 1,385 Layak
B/C (PI) = 1.01 Layak
ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF Annuity
n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV
11.57%
0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000-
1 21,000 0.896 18,823 - 18,823
2 20,000 0.803 16,068 - 16,068
3 19,000 0.720 13,682 - 13,682
4 18,000 0.645 11,618 - 11,618
5 17,000 0.579 9,835 - 9,835
6 16,000 0.519 8,297 - 8,297
7 15,000 0.465 6,972 - 6,972
8 14,000 0.417 5,833 - 5,833
9 13,000 0.373 4,855 - 4,855
10 12,000 0.335 4,017 - 4,017
Jlh 165,000 100,000 6.752 100,000 100,000 0
Catatan: 1.00
NPV= 0 Layak
B/C (PI) = 1.00 Layak
IRR = 11.57%
ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF decline
Alternative Theories
• Sales maximization
• Adequate rate of profit
• Management utility maximization
• Principle-agent problem
• Satisficing behavior
Definitions of Profit
• Business Profit: Total revenue minus the explicit or accounting costs
of production.
• Economic Profit: Total revenue minus the explicit and implicit costs of
production.
• Opportunity Cost: Implicit value of a resource in its best alternative
use.
Theories of Profit
• Risk-Bearing Theories of Profit
• Frictional Theory of Profit
• Monopoly Theory of Profit
• Innovation Theory of Profit
• Managerial Efficiency Theory of Profit
Function of Profit
• Profit is a signal that guides the allocation of society’s resources.
• High profits in an industry are a signal that buyers want more of what
the industry produces.
• Low (or negative) profits in an industry are a signal that buyers want
less of what the industry produces.
Business Ethics
• Identifies types of behavior that businesses and their employees
should not engage (melibatkan) in.
• Source of guidance that goes beyond (melampaui) enforceable (dapat
dilaksanakan) laws.
The Changing Environment of Managerial
Economics
• Globalization of Economic Activity
• Goods and Services
• Capital
• Technology
• Skilled Labor
• Technological Change
• Telecommunications Advances
• The Internet and the World Wide Web
Minggu 2 & 3 - CHAPTER 2
OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES AND NEW
MANAGEMENT TOOLS
2.1 Metode penyajian hubungan ekonomi
2.2 Hubungan nilai total, rata-rata dan nilai marginal
3.1 Analisis optimal
3.2 Optimasi multivariat dan optimasi terkendala
Back
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Q
TR
Expressing Economic Relationships
Equations: TR = 100Q - 10Q2
Tables:
Graphs:
Q 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
TR 0 90 160 210 240 250 240
Total, Average, and
Marginal Cost
Q TC AC MC
0 20 - -
1 140 140 120
2 160 80 20
3 180 60 20
4 240 60 60
5 480 96 240
AC = TC/Q
MC = TC/Q
Total, Average, and
Marginal Cost
0
60
120
180
240
0 1 2 3 4
Q
T C ($)
0
60
120
0 1 2 3 4 Q
AC , M C ($)
AC
M C
Profit Maximization
Q TR TC Profit
0 0 20 -20
1 90 140 -50
2 160 160 0
3 210 180 30
4 240 240 0
5 250 480 -230
Profit Maximization
0
60
120
180
240
300
0 1 2 3 4 5
Q
($)
MC
MR
TC
TR
-60
-30
0
30
60
Profit
Concept of the Derivative
The derivative of Y with respect to X is
equal to the limit of the ratio Y/X as
X approaches zero.
Rules of Differentiation
Constant Function Rule: The derivative
of a constant, Y = f(X) = a, is zero for all
values of a (the constant).
( )Y f X a 
0
dY
dX

Rules of Differentiation
Power Function Rule: The derivative of
a power function, where a and b are
constants, is defined as follows.
( ) b
Y f X aX 
1bdY
b aX
dX

 
Rules of Differentiation
Sum-and-Differences Rule: The derivative
of the sum or difference of two functions
U and V, is defined as follows.
( )U g X ( )V h X
dY dU dV
dX dX dX
 
Y U V 
Rules of Differentiation
Product Rule: The derivative of the
product of two functions U and V, is
defined as follows.
( )U g X ( )V h X
dY dV dU
U V
dX dX dX
 
Y U V 
Rules of Differentiation
Quotient Rule: The derivative of the
ratio of two functions U and V, is
defined as follows.
( )U g X ( )V h X
U
Y
V

   
2
dU dVV UdY dX dX
dX V


Rules of Differentiation
Chain Rule: The derivative of a function
that is a function of X is defined as follows.
( )U g X( )Y f U
dY dY dU
dX dU dX
 
Optimization With Calculus
Find X such that dY/dX = 0
Second derivative rules:
If d2Y/dX2 > 0, then X is a minimum.
If d2Y/dX2 < 0, then X is a maximum.
New Management Tools
• Benchmarking
• Total Quality Management
• Reengineering
• The Learning Organization
Other Management Tools
• Broadbanding
• Direct Business Model
• Networking
• Pricing Power
• Small-World Model
• Virtual Integration
• Virtual Management
Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3
DEMAND THEORY
4.1 Fungsi permintaan
4.2 Konsep elastisitas
4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan
manajerial
Back
Law of Demand
• There is an inverse relationship between the price of a good and the
quantity of the good demanded per time period.
• Substitution Effect
• Income Effect
Individual Consumer’s Demand
QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T)
quantity demanded of commodity X
by an individual per time period
price per unit of commodity X
consumer’s income
price of related (substitute or
complementary) commodity
tastes of the consumer
QdX =
PX =
I =
PY =
T =
QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T)
QdX/PX < 0
QdX/I > 0 if a good is normal
QdX/I < 0 if a good is inferior
QdX/PY > 0 if X and Y are substitutes
QdX/PY < 0 if X and Y are complements
Market Demand Curve
• Horizontal summation of demand curves of individual consumers
• Bandwagon Effect
• Snob Effect
Horizontal Summation: From
Individual to Market Demand
Market Demand Function
QDX = f(PX, N, I, PY, T)
quantity demanded of commodity X
price per unit of commodity X
number of consumers on the market
consumer income
price of related (substitute or
complementary) commodity
consumer tastes
QDX =
PX =
N =
I =
PY =
T =
Demand Faced by a Firm
• Market Structure
• Monopoly
• Oligopoly
• Monopolistic Competition
• Perfect Competition
• Type of Good
• Durable Goods
• Nondurable Goods
• Producers’ Goods - Derived Demand
Linear Demand Function
QX = a0 + a1PX + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T
PX
QX
Intercept:
a0 + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T
Slope:
QX/PX = a1
Price Elasticity of Demand
/
/
P
Q Q Q P
E
P P P Q
 
  
 
Linear Function
Point Definition
1P
P
E a
Q
 
Price Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
P
Q Q P P
E
P P Q Q
 
 
 
Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of
Demand
1
1
P
MR P
E
 
  
 
Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of
Demand
PX
QX
MRX
1PE 
1PE 
1PE 
Marginal Revenue, Total Revenue, and Price
Elasticity
TR
QX
1PE 
MR<0MR>0
1PE 
1PE  MR=0
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Demand for a commodity will be more elastic if:
• It has many close substitutes
• It is narrowly defined
• More time is available to adjust to a price change
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Demand for a commodity will be less elastic if:
• It has few substitutes
• It is broadly defined
• Less time is available to adjust to a price change
Income Elasticity of Demand
Linear Function
Point Definition
/
/
I
Q Q Q I
E
I I I Q
 
  
 
3I
I
E a
Q
 
Income Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
I
Q Q I I
E
I I Q Q
 
 
 
Normal Good Inferior Good
0IE  0IE 
Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand
Linear Function
Point Definition
/
/
X X X Y
XY
Y Y Y X
Q Q Q P
E
P P P Q
 
  
 
4
Y
XY
X
P
E a
Q
 
Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
Substitutes Complements
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
X X Y Y
XY
Y Y X X
Q Q P P
E
P P Q Q
 
 
 
0XYE  0XYE 
Other Factors Related to Demand Theory
• International Convergence of Tastes
• Globalization of Markets
• Influence of International Preferences on Market Demand
• Growth of Electronic Commerce
• Cost of Sales
• Supply Chains and Logistics
• Customer Relationship Management
Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3
DEMAND THEORY
4.1 Fungsi permintaan
4.2 Konsep elastisitas
4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan
manajerial
Back
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 72
Law of Demand
• There is an inverse relationship between the price of a good and the
quantity of the good demanded per time period.
• Substitution Effect
• Income Effect
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 73
Individual Consumer’s Demand
QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T)
quantity demanded of commodity X
by an individual per time period
price per unit of commodity X
consumer’s income
price of related (substitute or
complementary) commodity
tastes of the consumer
QdX =
PX =
I =
PY =
T =
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 74
QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T)
QdX/PX < 0
QdX/I > 0 if a good is normal
QdX/I < 0 if a good is inferior
QdX/PY > 0 if X and Y are substitutes
QdX/PY < 0 if X and Y are complements
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 75
Market Demand Curve
• Horizontal summation of demand curves of individual consumers
• Bandwagon Effect
• Snob Effect
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 76
Horizontal Summation: From
Individual to Market Demand
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 77
Market Demand Function
QDX = f(PX, N, I, PY, T)
quantity demanded of commodity X
price per unit of commodity X
number of consumers on the market
consumer income
price of related (substitute or
complementary) commodity
consumer tastes
QDX =
PX =
N =
I =
PY =
T =
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 78
Demand Faced by a Firm
• Market Structure
• Monopoly
• Oligopoly
• Monopolistic Competition
• Perfect Competition
• Type of Good
• Durable Goods
• Nondurable Goods
• Producers’ Goods - Derived Demand
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 79
Linear Demand Function
QX = a0 + a1PX + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T
PX
QX
Intercept:
a0 + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T
Slope:
QX/PX = a1
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 80
Price Elasticity of Demand
/
/
P
Q Q Q P
E
P P P Q
 
  
 
Linear Function
Point Definition
1P
P
E a
Q
 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 81
Price Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
P
Q Q P P
E
P P Q Q
 
 
 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 82
Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of
Demand
1
1
P
MR P
E
 
  
 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 83
Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of
Demand
PX
QX
MRX
1PE 
1PE 
1PE 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 84
Marginal Revenue, Total Revenue, and Price
Elasticity
TR
QX
1PE 
MR<0MR>0
1PE 
1PE  MR=0
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 85
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Demand for a commodity will be more elastic if:
• It has many close substitutes
• It is narrowly defined
• More time is available to adjust to a price change
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 86
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Demand for a commodity will be less elastic if:
• It has few substitutes
• It is broadly defined
• Less time is available to adjust to a price change
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 87
Income Elasticity of Demand
Linear Function
Point Definition
/
/
I
Q Q Q I
E
I I I Q
 
  
 
3I
I
E a
Q
 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 88
Income Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
I
Q Q I I
E
I I Q Q
 
 
 
Normal Good Inferior Good
0IE  0IE 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 89
Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand
Linear Function
Point Definition
/
/
X X X Y
XY
Y Y Y X
Q Q Q P
E
P P P Q
 
  
 
4
Y
XY
X
P
E a
Q
 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 90
Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand
Arc Definition
Substitutes Complements
2 1 2 1
2 1 2 1
X X Y Y
XY
Y Y X X
Q Q P P
E
P P Q Q
 
 
 
0XYE  0XYE 
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 91
Other Factors Related to Demand Theory
• International Convergence of Tastes
• Globalization of Markets
• Influence of International Preferences on Market Demand
• Growth of Electronic Commerce
• Cost of Sales
• Supply Chains and Logistics
• Customer Relationship Management
Minggu 5 - CHAPTER 4
DEMAND ESTIMATION
5.1 Masalah identifikasi
5.2 Penelitian pemasaran
5.3 Pendekatan regresi
Back
The Identification Problem
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 95
Demand Estimation:
Marketing Research Approaches
• Consumer Surveys
• Observational Research
• Consumer Clinics
• Market Experiments
• Virtual Shopping
• Virtual Management
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 96
Scatter Diagram
Regression Analysis
Year X Y
1 10 44
2 9 40
3 11 42
4 12 46
5 11 48
6 12 52
7 13 54
8 13 58
9 14 56
10 15 60
Regression Analysis
• Regression Line: Line of Best Fit
• Regression Line: Minimizes the sum of the squared vertical deviations
(et) of each point from the regression line.
• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method
Regression Analysis
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Model: t t tY a bX e  
ˆˆ ˆt tY a bX 
ˆ
t t te Y Y 
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Objective: Determine the slope and
intercept that minimize the sum of
the squared errors.
2 2 2
1 1 1
ˆˆ ˆ( ) ( )
n n n
t t t t t
t t t
e Y Y Y a bX
  
      
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Estimation Procedure
1
2
1
( )( )
ˆ
( )
n
t t
t
n
t
t
X X Y Y
b
X X


 




ˆˆa Y bX 
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Estimation Example
1 10 44 -2 -6 12
2 9 40 -3 -10 30
3 11 42 -1 -8 8
4 12 46 0 -4 0
5 11 48 -1 -2 2
6 12 52 0 2 0
7 13 54 1 4 4
8 13 58 1 8 8
9 14 56 2 6 12
10 15 60 3 10 30
120 500 106
4
9
1
0
1
0
1
1
4
9
30
Time tX tY tX X tY Y ( )( )t tX X Y Y  2
( )tX X
10n 
1
120
12
10
n
t
t
X
X
n
   1
500
50
10
n
t
t
Y
Y
n
  
1
120
n
t
t
X

 1
500
n
t
t
Y

 2
1
( ) 30
n
t
t
X X

 
1
( )( ) 106
n
t t
t
X X Y Y

  
106ˆ 3.533
30
b  
ˆ 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60a   
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
Estimation Example
10n 
1
120
12
10
n
t
t
X
X
n
  
1
500
50
10
n
t
t
Y
Y
n
  
1
120
n
t
t
X

 1
500
n
t
t
Y


2
1
( ) 30
n
t
t
X X

 
1
( )( ) 106
n
t t
t
X X Y Y

  
106ˆ 3.533
30
b  
ˆ 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60a   
Tests of Significance
Standard Error of the Slope Estimate
2 2
ˆ 2 2
ˆ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
t t
b
t t
Y Y e
s
n k X X n k X X

 
   
 
 
Tests of Significance
Example Calculation
2 2
1 1
ˆ( ) 65.4830
n n
t t t
t t
e Y Y
 
    2
1
( ) 30
n
t
t
X X

 
2
ˆ 2
ˆ( ) 65.4830
0.52
( ) ( ) (10 2)(30)
t
b
t
Y Y
s
n k X X

  
  


1 10 44 42.90
2 9 40 39.37
3 11 42 46.43
4 12 46 49.96
5 11 48 46.43
6 12 52 49.96
7 13 54 53.49
8 13 58 53.49
9 14 56 57.02
10 15 60 60.55
1.10 1.2100 4
0.63 0.3969 9
-4.43 19.6249 1
-3.96 15.6816 0
1.57 2.4649 1
2.04 4.1616 0
0.51 0.2601 1
4.51 20.3401 1
-1.02 1.0404 4
-0.55 0.3025 9
65.4830 30
Time tX tY ˆ
tY ˆ
t t te Y Y  2 2ˆ( )t t te Y Y  2
( )tX X
Tests of Significance
Example Calculation
2
ˆ 2
ˆ( ) 65.4830
0.52
( ) ( ) (10 2)(30)
t
b
t
Y Y
s
n k X X

  
  


2
1
( ) 30
n
t
t
X X

 
2 2
1 1
ˆ( ) 65.4830
n n
t t t
t t
e Y Y
 
   
Tests of Significance
Calculation of the t Statistic
ˆ
ˆ 3.53
6.79
0.52b
b
t
s
  
Degrees of Freedom = (n-k) = (10-2) = 8
Critical Value at 5% level =2.306
Tests of Significance
Decomposition of Sum of Squares
2 2 2ˆ ˆ( ) ( ) ( )t t tY Y Y Y Y Y      
Total Variation = Explained Variation + Unexplained Variation
Tests of Significance
Decomposition of Sum of Squares
Tests of Significance
Coefficient of Determination
2
2
2
ˆ( )
( )t
Y YExplainedVariation
R
TotalVariation Y Y

 



2 373.84
0.85
440.00
R  
Tests of Significance
Coefficient of Correlation
2 ˆr R withthesignof b
0.85 0.92r  
1 1r  
Multiple Regression Analysis
Model: 1 1 2 2 ' 'k kY a b X b X b X    L
Multiple Regression Analysis
Adjusted Coefficient of Determination
2 2 ( 1)
1 (1 )
( )
n
R R
n k

  

Multiple Regression Analysis
Analysis of Variance and F Statistic
/( 1)
/( )
ExplainedVariation k
F
UnexplainedVariation n k



2
2
/( 1)
(1 ) /( )
R k
F
R n k


 
Problems in Regression Analysis
• Multicollinearity: Two or more explanatory variables are highly
correlated.
• Heteroskedasticity: Variance of error term is not independent of the Y
variable.
• Autocorrelation: Consecutive error terms are correlated.
Durbin-Watson Statistic
Test for Autocorrelation
2
1
2
2
1
( )
n
t t
t
n
t
t
e e
d
e







If d=2, autocorrelation is absent.
Steps in Demand Estimation
• Model Specification: Identify Variables
• Collect Data
• Specify Functional Form
• Estimate Function
• Test the Results
Functional Form Specifications
Linear Function:
Power Function:
0 1 2 3 4X X YQ a a P a I a N a P e      L
1 2
( )( )b b
X X YQ a P P
Estimation Format:
1 2ln ln ln lnX X YQ a b P b P  
Minggu 6 - CHAPTER 5
DEMAND FORECASTING
6.1 Arti pentingnya peramalan ekonomi
6.2 Peramalan kualitatif
6.3 Analisis deret waktu
6.4 Teknik penghalusan
6.5 Model ekonometrika
Back
Qualitative Forecasts
• Survey Techniques
• Planned Plant and Equipment Spending
• Expected Sales and Inventory Changes
• Consumers’ Expenditure Plans
• Opinion Polls
• Business Executives
• Sales Force
• Consumer Intentions
Time-Series Analysis
• Secular Trend
• Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data
• Cyclical Fluctuations
• Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction
• Seasonal Variation
• Regularly Occurring Fluctuations
• Irregular or Random Influences
Trend Projection
• Linear Trend:
St = S0 + b t
b = Growth per time period
• Constant Growth Rate
St = S0 (1 + g)t
g = Growth rate
• Estimation of Growth Rate
lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)
Seasonal Variation
Ratio to Trend Method
Actual
Trend Forecast
Ratio =
Seasonal
Adjustment
=
Average of Ratios for
Each Seasonal Period
Adjusted
Forecast =
Trend
Forecast
Seasonal
Adjustment
Seasonal Variation
Ratio to Trend Method:
Example Calculation for Quarter 1
Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60
Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50
Year
Trend
Forecast Actual Ratio
1992.1 12.29 11.00 0.8950
1993.1 13.87 12.00 0.8652
1994.1 15.45 14.00 0.9061
1995.1 17.02 15.00 0.8813
Seasonal Adjustment = 0.8869
Moving Average Forecasts
Forecast is the average of data from w
periods prior to the forecast data point.
1
w
t i
t
i
A
F
w


 
Exponential Smoothing
Forecasts
1 (1 )t t tF wA w F   
Forecast is the weighted average of of
the forecast and the actual value from
the prior period.
0 1w 
Root Mean Square Error
2
( )t tA F
RMSE
n



Measures the Accuracy
of a Forecasting Method
Barometric Methods
• National Bureau of Economic Research
• Department of Commerce
• Leading Indicators
• Lagging Indicators
• Coincident Indicators
• Composite Index
• Diffusion Index
Econometric Models
Single Equation Model of the
Demand For Cereal (Good X)
QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e
QX = Quantity of X
PX = Price of Good X
Y = Consumer Income
N = Size of Population
PS = Price of Muffins
PC = Price of Milk
A = Advertising
e = Random Error
Econometric Models
Multiple Equation Model of GNP
1 1 1t t tC a bGNP u  
2 2 1 2t t tI a b u   
t t t tGNP C I G  
2 11 2
1
1 11 1 1
t t
t
b Ga a
GNP b
b b
 
   
 
Reduced Form Equation
Input-Output Forecasting
Producing Industry
Supplying
Industry A B C
Final
Demand Total
A 20 60 30 90 200
B 80 90 20 110 300
C 40 30 10 20 100
Value Added 60 120 40 220
Total 200 300 100 220
Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table
Input-Output Forecasting
Direct Requirements Matrix
Producing Industry
Supplying
Industry A B C
A 0.1 0.2 0.3
B 0.4 0.3 0.2
C 0.2 0.1 0.1
Direct
Requirements
Input Requirements
Column Total
=
Input-Output Forecasting
Total Requirements Matrix
Producing Industry
Supplying
Industry A B C
A 1.47 0.51 0.60
B 0.96 1.81 0.72
C 0.43 0.31 1.33
Input-Output Forecasting
1.47 0.51 0.60
0.96 1.81 0.72
0.43 0.31 1.33
90
110
20
=
200
300
100
Total
Requirements
Matrix
Final
Demand
Vector
Total
Demand
Vector
Input-Output Forecasting
Revised Input-Output Flow Table
Producing Industry
Supplying
Industry A B C
Final
Demand Total
A 22 62 31 100 215
B 88 93 21 110 310
C 43 31 10 20 104
Minggu 7 - CHAPTER 6
PRODUCTION THEORY AND
ESTIMATION
7.1 Organisasi produksi dan fungsi produksi
7.2 Fungsi produksi dengan satu input variabel
7.3 Penggunaan input variabel secara optimal
7.4 Fungsi produksi dengan dua input variabel
7.5 Returnto scale
Back
The Organization of Production
• Inputs
• Labor, Capital, Land
• Fixed Inputs
• Variable Inputs
• Short Run
• At least one input is fixed
• Long Run
• All inputs are variable
Production Function
With Two Inputs
K Q
6 10 24 31 36 40 39
5 12 28 36 40 42 40
4 12 28 36 40 40 36
3 10 23 33 36 36 33
2 7 18 28 30 30 28
1 3 8 12 14 14 12
1 2 3 4 5 6 L
Q = f(L, K)
Production Function
With Two Inputs
Discrete Production Surface
Production Function
With Two Inputs
Continuous Production Surface
Production Function
With One Variable Input
Total Product
Marginal Product
Average Product
Production or
Output Elasticity
TP = Q = f(L)
MPL =
TP
L
APL =
TP
L
EL =
MPL
APL
Production Function
With One Variable Input
L Q MPL APL EL
0 0 - - -
1 3 3 3 1
2 8 5 4 1.25
3 12 4 4 1
4 14 2 3.5 0.57
5 14 0 2.8 0
6 12 -2 2 -1
Total, Marginal, and Average Product of Labor, and Output Elasticity
Production Function
With One Variable Input
Production Function
With One Variable Input
Optimal Use of the
Variable Input
Marginal Revenue
Product of Labor
MRPL = (MPL)(MR)
Marginal Resource
Cost of Labor
MRCL =
TC
L
Optimal Use of Labor MRPL = MRCL
Optimal Use of the
Variable Input
L MPL MR = P MRPL MRCL
2.50 4 $10 $40 $20
3.00 3 10 30 20
3.50 2 10 20 20
4.00 1 10 10 20
4.50 0 10 0 20
Use of Labor is Optimal When L = 3.50
Optimal Use of the
Variable Input
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
Isoquants show combinations of two inputs
that can produce the same level of output.
Firms will only use combinations of two
inputs that are in the economic region of
production, which is defined by the portion
of each isoquant that is negatively sloped.
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
Isoquants
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
Economic
Region of
Production
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution
MRTS = -K/L = MPL/MPK
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
MRTS = -(-2.5/1) = 2.5
Production With Two
Variable Inputs
Perfect Substitutes Perfect Complements
Optimal Combination of Inputs
Isocost lines represent all combinations of
two inputs that a firm can purchase with
the same total cost.
C wL rK 
C w
K L
r r
 
C TotalCost
( )w WageRateof Labor L
( )r Cost of Capital K
Optimal Combination of Inputs
Isocost Lines
AB C = $100, w = r = $10
A’B’ C = $140, w = r = $10
A’’B’’ C = $80, w = r = $10
AB* C = $100, w = $5, r = $10
Optimal Combination of Inputs
MRTS = w/r
Optimal Combination of Inputs
Effect of a Change in Input Prices
Returns to Scale
Production Function Q = f(L, K)
Q = f(hL, hK)
If  = h, then f has constant returns to scale.
If  > h, then f has increasing returns to scale.
If  < h, the f has decreasing returns to scale.
Returns to Scale
Constant
Returns to
Scale
Increasing
Returns to
Scale
Decreasing
Returns to
Scale
Empirical Production Functions
Cobb-Douglas Production Function
Q = AKaLb
Estimated using Natural Logarithms
ln Q = ln A + a ln K + b ln L
Innovations and Global
Competitiveness
• Product Innovation
• Process Innovation
• Product Cycle Model
• Just-In-Time Production System
• Competitive Benchmarking
• Computer-Aided Design (CAD)
• Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)
Minggu 8 - CHAPTER 7
COST THEORY AND ESTIMATION
8.1 Karakteristik biaya
8.2 Fungsi biaya jangka pendek
8.3. Estimasi biaya
8.4 Kurva pembelajaran
8.5 Peramalan biaya
Back
The Nature of Costs
• Explicit Costs
• Accounting Costs
• Economic Costs
• Implicit Costs
• Alternative or Opportunity Costs
• Relevant Costs
• Incremental Costs
• Sunk Costs are Irrelevant
Short-Run Cost Functions
Total Cost = TC = f(Q)
Total Fixed Cost = TFC
Total Variable Cost = TVC
TC = TFC + TVC
Short-Run Cost Functions
Average Total Cost = ATC = TC/Q
Average Fixed Cost = AFC = TFC/Q
Average Variable Cost = AVC = TVC/Q
ATC = AFC + AVC
Marginal Cost = TC/Q = TVC/Q
Short-Run Cost Functions
Q TFC TVC TC AFC AVC ATC MC
0 $60 $0 $60 - - - -
1 60 20 80 $60 $20 $80 $20
2 60 30 90 30 15 45 10
3 60 45 105 20 15 35 15
4 60 80 140 15 20 35 35
5 60 135 195 12 27 39 55
Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright
©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson
Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 171
Short-Run Cost Functions
Average Variable Cost
AVC = TVC/Q = w/APL
Marginal Cost
TC/Q = TVC/Q = w/MPL
Long-Run Cost Curves
Long-Run Total Cost = LTC = f(Q)
Long-Run Average Cost = LAC = LTC/Q
Long-Run Marginal Cost = LMC = LTC/Q
Derivation of Long-Run Cost Curves
Relationship Between Long-Run and
Short-Run Average Cost Curves
Possible Shapes of
the LAC Curve
Learning Curves
Average Cost of Unit Q = C = aQb
Estimation Form: log C = log a + b Log Q
Minimizing Costs Internationally
• Foreign Sourcing of Inputs
• New International Economies of Scale
• Immigration of Skilled Labor
• Brain Drain
Logistics or Supply Chain
Management
• Merges and integrates functions
• Purchasing
• Transportation
• Warehousing
• Distribution
• Customer Services
• Source of competitive advantage
Logistics or Supply Chain
Management
• Reasons for the growth of logistics
• Advances in computer technology
• Decreased cost of logistical problem solving
• Growth of just-in-time inventory management
• Increased need to monitor and manage input and output flows
• Globalization of production and distribution
• Increased complexity of input and output flows
Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis
Total Revenue = TR = (P)(Q)
Total Cost = TC = TFC + (AVC)(Q)
Breakeven Volume TR = TC
(P)(Q) = TFC + (AVC)(Q)
QBE = TFC/(P - AVC)
Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis
P = 40
TFC = 200
AVC = 5
QBE = 40
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage = TFC/TVC
Degree of Operating Leverage = DOL
% ( )
% ( )
Q P AVC
DOL
Q Q P AVC TFC
 
 
  
Operating Leverage
TC’ has a higher DOL
than TC and therefore
a higher QBE
Empirical Estimation
Data Collection Issues
• Opportunity Costs Must be Extracted from
Accounting Cost Data
• Costs Must be Apportioned Among Products
• Costs Must be Matched to Output Over Time
• Costs Must be Corrected for Inflation
Empirical Estimation
Functional Form for Short-Run Cost Functions
2 3
TVC aQ bQ cQ  
2TVC
AVC a bQ cQ
Q
   
2
2 3MC a bQ cQ  
Theoretical Form Linear Approximation
TVC a bQ 
a
AVC b
Q
 
MC b
Empirical Estimation
Theoretical Form Linear Approximation
Empirical Estimation
Long-Run Cost Curves
• Cross-Sectional Regression Analysis
• Engineering Method
• Survival Technique
Empirical Estimation
Actual LAC versus empirically estimated LAC’
P1 aminullah managerial economics

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P1 aminullah managerial economics

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  • 5.  Minggu 1 - CHAPTER 1: The Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics  Minggu 2 & 3 - CHAPTER 2: Optimization Techniques and New Management Tools  Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3: Demand Theory  Minggu 5 - CHAPTER 4: Demand Estimation  Minggu 6 - CHAPTER 5: Demand Forecasting  Minggu 7 - CHAPTER 6: Production Theory and Estimation  Minggu 8 - CHAPTER 7: Cost Theory and Estimation  Minggu 9 - CHAPTER 8: Market Structure: Perfect Competition, and Monopoly  Minggu 10 - CHAPTER 9: Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly and Firm Architecture  Minggu 11 - CHARTER 11: Pricing Practices  Minggu 12 - CHAPTER 12: Regulation and Antitrust: The Role of Government in the Economy  Minggu 13 - CHARTER 13: Risk Analysis  Minggu 14 - CHARTER 14: Long-Run Investment Decisions: Capital Budgeting RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS)
  • 6. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 1 CHAPTER 1: The Nature and Scope of Managerial Economics 1.1 Ruang lingkup ekonmi manajerial 1.2 Keterkaitannya dengan teori ekonomi, ilmu keputusan dan berbasis area fungsional dan ilmu adminsitrasiadministrasi bisnis 1.3 Teori perusahaan 1.4 Sifat dan fungsi laba Minggu 2 & 3 CHAPTER 2: Optimization Techniques and New Management Tools 2.1 Metode penyajian hubungan ekonomi 2.2 Hubungan nilai total, rata-rata dan nilai marginal 3.1 Analisis optimal 3.2 Optimasi multivariat dan optimasi terkendala
  • 7. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 4 CHAPTER 3: Demand Theory 4.1 Fungsi permintaan 4.2 Konsep elastisitas 4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan manajerial Minggu 5 CHAPTER 4: Demand Estimation 5.1 Masalah identifikasi 5.2 Penelitian pemasaran 5.3 Pendekatan regresi
  • 8. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 6 CHAPTER 5: Demand Forecasting 6.1 Arti pentingnya peramalan ekonomi 6.2 Peramalan kualitatif 6.3 Analisis deret waktu 6.4 Teknik penghalusan 6.5 Model ekonometrika Minggu 7 CHAPTER 6: Production Theory and Estimation 7.1 Organisasi produksi dan fungsi produksi 7.2 Fungsi produksi dengan satu input variabel 7.3 Penggunaan input variabel secara optimal 7.4 Fungsi produksi dengan dua input variabel 7.5 Returnto scale
  • 9. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 8 CHAPTER 7: Cost Theory and Estimation 8.1 Karakteristik biaya 8.2 Fungsi biaya jangka pendek 8.3. Estimasi biaya 8.4 Kurva pembelajaran 8.5 Peramalan biaya Minggu 9 CHAPTER 8: Market Structure: Perfect Competition, and Monopoly 9.1 Struktur dan tingkat persaingan 9.2 Klasifikasi struktur pasar 9.3 Pasar persaingan sempurna 9.4 Pasar monopoli
  • 10. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 10 CHAPTER 9: Monopolistic Competition, Oligopoly and Firm Architecture 10.1 Pasar persaingan monopolistic 10.2 Pasar oligopoly 10.3 Dilema narapidana, persaingan harga dan non harga kecurangan kartel Minggu 11 CHARTER 11: Pricing Practices 11.1 Penetapan harga berbagai jenis produksi 11.2 Diskriminasi harga 11.3 Metode penetapan harga
  • 11. RENCANA PEMBELAJARAN SEMESTER (RPS) Minggu 12 CHAPTER 12: Regulation and Antitrust: The Role of Government in the Economy 12.1 Regulasi permintaan 12.2 Eksternalitas dan regulasi 12.3 Regulasi fasilitas umum Minggu 13 CHARTER 13: Risk Analysis 13.1 Risiko dan ketidak pastian 13.2 Pengukuran risiko 13.3 Pengambilan keputusan dalam ketidak pastian Minggu 14 CHARTER 14: Long-Run Investment Decisions: Capital Budgeting 14.1 Arti dan pentingnya penganggaran modal 14.2 Proses penganggaran modal 14.3 Biaya modal
  • 12. References 1. Salvatore, Dominick (2014). Managerial Economics Principles And Worldwide Applications. Fordham University, New York. 2. Baye, Michael R.(2010). Managerial Economics And Business Strategy. . The McGraw-Hill Series Economics. Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. 3. Douglas, Evan J. and Callen,.Scott (1995) .Managerial Economics – Analysis and Strategy. London : Prentice-Hall. 4. Arsyad, Lincolin. (2000). Ekonomi Manajerial : Ekonomi Mikro Terapan untuk Manajemen Bisnis. 5. Priono, Bambang Edi. (1997) Manajerial Ekonomi : Analisis Problem, Kasus untuk Magister Manajemen Program.
  • 13. Minggu 1- CHAPTER 1 THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS 1.1 Ruang lingkup ekonomi manajerial 1.2 Keterkaitannya dengan teori ekonomi, ilmu keputusan dan berbasis area fungsional dan ilmu adminsitrasiadministrasi bisnis 1.3 Teori perusahaan 1.4 Sifat dan fungsi laba Back
  • 14. MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Microeconomics Comparative Strategy Statistics Marketing Finance Accounting Managerial economics has envolved out of microeconomics to provide guidence for business managers who must make decision an environment of risk and uncertainty. It integrates into economics a variety of concepts from accounting, finance, and marketing, and utilizes concepts and tools from statitics, particulary in the estimation of demand and cost schedules. It is thus an interdisciplinary, integrative course in the business curriculum Which leads naturally to the study of competitive strategy.
  • 15. EKONOMI MANAJERIAL • Sebagai konsep ilmu manajmen dan riset operasi • Sebagai kerangka terpadu unukt menganalisis masalah-masalah pengambilan keputusan dalam dunia usaha • Ekonomi manajerial menggunakan alat dan teknis analisis ekonomi untuk menganalisis dan memecahkan masalah-masalah manajerial • Ekonomi manajerial antara lain berkenaan dengan bagaimana mengalokasikan sumberdaya yang langkah secara efektif dan efisien (relevan dengan manajemen non bisnis)
  • 16. Managerial Economics Defined • The application of economic theory and the tools of decision science to examine how an organization can achieve its aims or objectives most efficiently.
  • 17. Managerial Decision Problems Economic theory Microeconomics Macroeconomics Decision Sciences Mathematical Economics Econometrics MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS Application of economic theory and decision science tools to solve managerial decision problems OPTIMAL SOLUTIONS TO MANAGERIAL DECISION PROBLEMS
  • 18. Theory of the Firm • Combines and organizes resources for the purpose of producing goods and/or services for sale. • Internalizes transactions, reducing transactions costs. • Primary goal is to maximize the wealth or value of the firm.
  • 19. Value of the Firm The present value of all expected future profits
  • 20. n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV 10% 0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000- 1 21,000 0.909 19,091 - 19,091 2 20,000 0.826 16,529 - 16,529 3 19,000 0.751 14,275 - 14,275 4 18,000 0.683 12,294 - 12,294 5 17,000 0.621 10,556 - 10,556 6 16,000 0.564 9,032 - 9,032 7 15,000 0.513 7,697 - 7,697 8 14,000 0.467 6,531 - 6,531 9 13,000 0.424 5,513 - 5,513 10 12,000 0.386 4,627 - 4,627 Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 106,145 100,000 6,145 Catatan: 1.06 NPV= 6,145 Layak B/C (PI) = 1.06 Layak ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF decline
  • 21. n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV 10% 0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000- 1 12,000 0.909 10,909 - 10,909 2 13,000 0.826 10,744 - 10,744 3 14,000 0.751 10,518 - 10,518 4 15,000 0.683 10,245 - 10,245 5 16,000 0.621 9,935 - 9,935 6 17,000 0.564 9,596 - 9,596 7 18,000 0.513 9,237 - 9,237 8 19,000 0.467 8,864 - 8,864 9 20,000 0.424 8,482 - 8,482 10 21,000 0.386 8,096 - 8,096 Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 96,626 100,000 -3,374 Catatan: 0.97 NPV= 3,374- Tidak Layak B/C (PI) = 0.97 Tidak Layak ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF growth
  • 22. n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV 10% 0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000- 1 16,500 0.909 15,000 - 15,000 2 16,500 0.826 13,636 - 13,636 3 16,500 0.751 12,397 - 12,397 4 16,500 0.683 11,270 - 11,270 5 16,500 0.621 10,245 - 10,245 6 16,500 0.564 9,314 - 9,314 7 16,500 0.513 8,467 - 8,467 8 16,500 0.467 7,697 - 7,697 9 16,500 0.424 6,998 - 6,998 10 16,500 0.386 6,361 - 6,361 Jlh 165,000 100,000 7.145 101,385 100,000 1,385 Catatan: 1.01 NPV= 1,385 Layak B/C (PI) = 1.01 Layak ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF Annuity
  • 23. n CI CO DF PVCI PVCO NPV 11.57% 0 100,000 1 100,000 100,000- 1 21,000 0.896 18,823 - 18,823 2 20,000 0.803 16,068 - 16,068 3 19,000 0.720 13,682 - 13,682 4 18,000 0.645 11,618 - 11,618 5 17,000 0.579 9,835 - 9,835 6 16,000 0.519 8,297 - 8,297 7 15,000 0.465 6,972 - 6,972 8 14,000 0.417 5,833 - 5,833 9 13,000 0.373 4,855 - 4,855 10 12,000 0.335 4,017 - 4,017 Jlh 165,000 100,000 6.752 100,000 100,000 0 Catatan: 1.00 NPV= 0 Layak B/C (PI) = 1.00 Layak IRR = 11.57% ANALISIS CASH FLOW - CIF decline
  • 24. Alternative Theories • Sales maximization • Adequate rate of profit • Management utility maximization • Principle-agent problem • Satisficing behavior
  • 25. Definitions of Profit • Business Profit: Total revenue minus the explicit or accounting costs of production. • Economic Profit: Total revenue minus the explicit and implicit costs of production. • Opportunity Cost: Implicit value of a resource in its best alternative use.
  • 26. Theories of Profit • Risk-Bearing Theories of Profit • Frictional Theory of Profit • Monopoly Theory of Profit • Innovation Theory of Profit • Managerial Efficiency Theory of Profit
  • 27. Function of Profit • Profit is a signal that guides the allocation of society’s resources. • High profits in an industry are a signal that buyers want more of what the industry produces. • Low (or negative) profits in an industry are a signal that buyers want less of what the industry produces.
  • 28. Business Ethics • Identifies types of behavior that businesses and their employees should not engage (melibatkan) in. • Source of guidance that goes beyond (melampaui) enforceable (dapat dilaksanakan) laws.
  • 29. The Changing Environment of Managerial Economics • Globalization of Economic Activity • Goods and Services • Capital • Technology • Skilled Labor • Technological Change • Telecommunications Advances • The Internet and the World Wide Web
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  • 31.
  • 32. Minggu 2 & 3 - CHAPTER 2 OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES AND NEW MANAGEMENT TOOLS 2.1 Metode penyajian hubungan ekonomi 2.2 Hubungan nilai total, rata-rata dan nilai marginal 3.1 Analisis optimal 3.2 Optimasi multivariat dan optimasi terkendala Back
  • 33. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Q TR Expressing Economic Relationships Equations: TR = 100Q - 10Q2 Tables: Graphs: Q 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 TR 0 90 160 210 240 250 240
  • 34. Total, Average, and Marginal Cost Q TC AC MC 0 20 - - 1 140 140 120 2 160 80 20 3 180 60 20 4 240 60 60 5 480 96 240 AC = TC/Q MC = TC/Q
  • 35. Total, Average, and Marginal Cost 0 60 120 180 240 0 1 2 3 4 Q T C ($) 0 60 120 0 1 2 3 4 Q AC , M C ($) AC M C
  • 36. Profit Maximization Q TR TC Profit 0 0 20 -20 1 90 140 -50 2 160 160 0 3 210 180 30 4 240 240 0 5 250 480 -230
  • 37. Profit Maximization 0 60 120 180 240 300 0 1 2 3 4 5 Q ($) MC MR TC TR -60 -30 0 30 60 Profit
  • 38. Concept of the Derivative The derivative of Y with respect to X is equal to the limit of the ratio Y/X as X approaches zero.
  • 39. Rules of Differentiation Constant Function Rule: The derivative of a constant, Y = f(X) = a, is zero for all values of a (the constant). ( )Y f X a  0 dY dX 
  • 40. Rules of Differentiation Power Function Rule: The derivative of a power function, where a and b are constants, is defined as follows. ( ) b Y f X aX  1bdY b aX dX   
  • 41. Rules of Differentiation Sum-and-Differences Rule: The derivative of the sum or difference of two functions U and V, is defined as follows. ( )U g X ( )V h X dY dU dV dX dX dX   Y U V 
  • 42. Rules of Differentiation Product Rule: The derivative of the product of two functions U and V, is defined as follows. ( )U g X ( )V h X dY dV dU U V dX dX dX   Y U V 
  • 43. Rules of Differentiation Quotient Rule: The derivative of the ratio of two functions U and V, is defined as follows. ( )U g X ( )V h X U Y V      2 dU dVV UdY dX dX dX V  
  • 44. Rules of Differentiation Chain Rule: The derivative of a function that is a function of X is defined as follows. ( )U g X( )Y f U dY dY dU dX dU dX  
  • 45. Optimization With Calculus Find X such that dY/dX = 0 Second derivative rules: If d2Y/dX2 > 0, then X is a minimum. If d2Y/dX2 < 0, then X is a maximum.
  • 46. New Management Tools • Benchmarking • Total Quality Management • Reengineering • The Learning Organization
  • 47. Other Management Tools • Broadbanding • Direct Business Model • Networking • Pricing Power • Small-World Model • Virtual Integration • Virtual Management
  • 48.
  • 49. Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3 DEMAND THEORY 4.1 Fungsi permintaan 4.2 Konsep elastisitas 4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan manajerial Back
  • 50. Law of Demand • There is an inverse relationship between the price of a good and the quantity of the good demanded per time period. • Substitution Effect • Income Effect
  • 51. Individual Consumer’s Demand QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T) quantity demanded of commodity X by an individual per time period price per unit of commodity X consumer’s income price of related (substitute or complementary) commodity tastes of the consumer QdX = PX = I = PY = T =
  • 52. QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T) QdX/PX < 0 QdX/I > 0 if a good is normal QdX/I < 0 if a good is inferior QdX/PY > 0 if X and Y are substitutes QdX/PY < 0 if X and Y are complements
  • 53. Market Demand Curve • Horizontal summation of demand curves of individual consumers • Bandwagon Effect • Snob Effect
  • 55. Market Demand Function QDX = f(PX, N, I, PY, T) quantity demanded of commodity X price per unit of commodity X number of consumers on the market consumer income price of related (substitute or complementary) commodity consumer tastes QDX = PX = N = I = PY = T =
  • 56. Demand Faced by a Firm • Market Structure • Monopoly • Oligopoly • Monopolistic Competition • Perfect Competition • Type of Good • Durable Goods • Nondurable Goods • Producers’ Goods - Derived Demand
  • 57. Linear Demand Function QX = a0 + a1PX + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T PX QX Intercept: a0 + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T Slope: QX/PX = a1
  • 58. Price Elasticity of Demand / / P Q Q Q P E P P P Q        Linear Function Point Definition 1P P E a Q  
  • 59. Price Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 P Q Q P P E P P Q Q      
  • 60. Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand 1 1 P MR P E       
  • 61. Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand PX QX MRX 1PE  1PE  1PE 
  • 62. Marginal Revenue, Total Revenue, and Price Elasticity TR QX 1PE  MR<0MR>0 1PE  1PE  MR=0
  • 63. Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand Demand for a commodity will be more elastic if: • It has many close substitutes • It is narrowly defined • More time is available to adjust to a price change
  • 64. Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand Demand for a commodity will be less elastic if: • It has few substitutes • It is broadly defined • Less time is available to adjust to a price change
  • 65. Income Elasticity of Demand Linear Function Point Definition / / I Q Q Q I E I I I Q        3I I E a Q  
  • 66. Income Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 I Q Q I I E I I Q Q       Normal Good Inferior Good 0IE  0IE 
  • 67. Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand Linear Function Point Definition / / X X X Y XY Y Y Y X Q Q Q P E P P P Q        4 Y XY X P E a Q  
  • 68. Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition Substitutes Complements 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 X X Y Y XY Y Y X X Q Q P P E P P Q Q       0XYE  0XYE 
  • 69. Other Factors Related to Demand Theory • International Convergence of Tastes • Globalization of Markets • Influence of International Preferences on Market Demand • Growth of Electronic Commerce • Cost of Sales • Supply Chains and Logistics • Customer Relationship Management
  • 70.
  • 71. Minggu 4 - CHAPTER 3 DEMAND THEORY 4.1 Fungsi permintaan 4.2 Konsep elastisitas 4.3 Aplikasi elastisitas dalam pengambilan keputusan manajerial Back
  • 72. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 72 Law of Demand • There is an inverse relationship between the price of a good and the quantity of the good demanded per time period. • Substitution Effect • Income Effect
  • 73. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 73 Individual Consumer’s Demand QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T) quantity demanded of commodity X by an individual per time period price per unit of commodity X consumer’s income price of related (substitute or complementary) commodity tastes of the consumer QdX = PX = I = PY = T =
  • 74. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 74 QdX = f(PX, I, PY, T) QdX/PX < 0 QdX/I > 0 if a good is normal QdX/I < 0 if a good is inferior QdX/PY > 0 if X and Y are substitutes QdX/PY < 0 if X and Y are complements
  • 75. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 75 Market Demand Curve • Horizontal summation of demand curves of individual consumers • Bandwagon Effect • Snob Effect
  • 76. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 76 Horizontal Summation: From Individual to Market Demand
  • 77. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 77 Market Demand Function QDX = f(PX, N, I, PY, T) quantity demanded of commodity X price per unit of commodity X number of consumers on the market consumer income price of related (substitute or complementary) commodity consumer tastes QDX = PX = N = I = PY = T =
  • 78. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 78 Demand Faced by a Firm • Market Structure • Monopoly • Oligopoly • Monopolistic Competition • Perfect Competition • Type of Good • Durable Goods • Nondurable Goods • Producers’ Goods - Derived Demand
  • 79. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 79 Linear Demand Function QX = a0 + a1PX + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T PX QX Intercept: a0 + a2N + a3I + a4PY + a5T Slope: QX/PX = a1
  • 80. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 80 Price Elasticity of Demand / / P Q Q Q P E P P P Q        Linear Function Point Definition 1P P E a Q  
  • 81. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 81 Price Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 P Q Q P P E P P Q Q      
  • 82. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 82 Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand 1 1 P MR P E       
  • 83. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 83 Marginal Revenue and Price Elasticity of Demand PX QX MRX 1PE  1PE  1PE 
  • 84. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 84 Marginal Revenue, Total Revenue, and Price Elasticity TR QX 1PE  MR<0MR>0 1PE  1PE  MR=0
  • 85. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 85 Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand Demand for a commodity will be more elastic if: • It has many close substitutes • It is narrowly defined • More time is available to adjust to a price change
  • 86. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 86 Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand Demand for a commodity will be less elastic if: • It has few substitutes • It is broadly defined • Less time is available to adjust to a price change
  • 87. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 87 Income Elasticity of Demand Linear Function Point Definition / / I Q Q Q I E I I I Q        3I I E a Q  
  • 88. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 88 Income Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 I Q Q I I E I I Q Q       Normal Good Inferior Good 0IE  0IE 
  • 89. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 89 Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand Linear Function Point Definition / / X X X Y XY Y Y Y X Q Q Q P E P P P Q        4 Y XY X P E a Q  
  • 90. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 90 Cross-Price Elasticity of Demand Arc Definition Substitutes Complements 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 X X Y Y XY Y Y X X Q Q P P E P P Q Q       0XYE  0XYE 
  • 91. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 91 Other Factors Related to Demand Theory • International Convergence of Tastes • Globalization of Markets • Influence of International Preferences on Market Demand • Growth of Electronic Commerce • Cost of Sales • Supply Chains and Logistics • Customer Relationship Management
  • 92.
  • 93. Minggu 5 - CHAPTER 4 DEMAND ESTIMATION 5.1 Masalah identifikasi 5.2 Penelitian pemasaran 5.3 Pendekatan regresi Back
  • 95. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 95 Demand Estimation: Marketing Research Approaches • Consumer Surveys • Observational Research • Consumer Clinics • Market Experiments • Virtual Shopping • Virtual Management
  • 96. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 96 Scatter Diagram Regression Analysis Year X Y 1 10 44 2 9 40 3 11 42 4 12 46 5 11 48 6 12 52 7 13 54 8 13 58 9 14 56 10 15 60
  • 97. Regression Analysis • Regression Line: Line of Best Fit • Regression Line: Minimizes the sum of the squared vertical deviations (et) of each point from the regression line. • Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method
  • 99. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Model: t t tY a bX e   ˆˆ ˆt tY a bX  ˆ t t te Y Y 
  • 100. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Objective: Determine the slope and intercept that minimize the sum of the squared errors. 2 2 2 1 1 1 ˆˆ ˆ( ) ( ) n n n t t t t t t t t e Y Y Y a bX          
  • 101. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation Procedure 1 2 1 ( )( ) ˆ ( ) n t t t n t t X X Y Y b X X         ˆˆa Y bX 
  • 102. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation Example 1 10 44 -2 -6 12 2 9 40 -3 -10 30 3 11 42 -1 -8 8 4 12 46 0 -4 0 5 11 48 -1 -2 2 6 12 52 0 2 0 7 13 54 1 4 4 8 13 58 1 8 8 9 14 56 2 6 12 10 15 60 3 10 30 120 500 106 4 9 1 0 1 0 1 1 4 9 30 Time tX tY tX X tY Y ( )( )t tX X Y Y  2 ( )tX X 10n  1 120 12 10 n t t X X n    1 500 50 10 n t t Y Y n    1 120 n t t X   1 500 n t t Y   2 1 ( ) 30 n t t X X    1 ( )( ) 106 n t t t X X Y Y     106ˆ 3.533 30 b   ˆ 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60a   
  • 103. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation Example 10n  1 120 12 10 n t t X X n    1 500 50 10 n t t Y Y n    1 120 n t t X   1 500 n t t Y   2 1 ( ) 30 n t t X X    1 ( )( ) 106 n t t t X X Y Y     106ˆ 3.533 30 b   ˆ 50 (3.533)(12) 7.60a   
  • 104. Tests of Significance Standard Error of the Slope Estimate 2 2 ˆ 2 2 ˆ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) t t b t t Y Y e s n k X X n k X X           
  • 105. Tests of Significance Example Calculation 2 2 1 1 ˆ( ) 65.4830 n n t t t t t e Y Y       2 1 ( ) 30 n t t X X    2 ˆ 2 ˆ( ) 65.4830 0.52 ( ) ( ) (10 2)(30) t b t Y Y s n k X X          1 10 44 42.90 2 9 40 39.37 3 11 42 46.43 4 12 46 49.96 5 11 48 46.43 6 12 52 49.96 7 13 54 53.49 8 13 58 53.49 9 14 56 57.02 10 15 60 60.55 1.10 1.2100 4 0.63 0.3969 9 -4.43 19.6249 1 -3.96 15.6816 0 1.57 2.4649 1 2.04 4.1616 0 0.51 0.2601 1 4.51 20.3401 1 -1.02 1.0404 4 -0.55 0.3025 9 65.4830 30 Time tX tY ˆ tY ˆ t t te Y Y  2 2ˆ( )t t te Y Y  2 ( )tX X
  • 106. Tests of Significance Example Calculation 2 ˆ 2 ˆ( ) 65.4830 0.52 ( ) ( ) (10 2)(30) t b t Y Y s n k X X          2 1 ( ) 30 n t t X X    2 2 1 1 ˆ( ) 65.4830 n n t t t t t e Y Y      
  • 107. Tests of Significance Calculation of the t Statistic ˆ ˆ 3.53 6.79 0.52b b t s    Degrees of Freedom = (n-k) = (10-2) = 8 Critical Value at 5% level =2.306
  • 108. Tests of Significance Decomposition of Sum of Squares 2 2 2ˆ ˆ( ) ( ) ( )t t tY Y Y Y Y Y       Total Variation = Explained Variation + Unexplained Variation
  • 110. Tests of Significance Coefficient of Determination 2 2 2 ˆ( ) ( )t Y YExplainedVariation R TotalVariation Y Y       2 373.84 0.85 440.00 R  
  • 111. Tests of Significance Coefficient of Correlation 2 ˆr R withthesignof b 0.85 0.92r   1 1r  
  • 112. Multiple Regression Analysis Model: 1 1 2 2 ' 'k kY a b X b X b X    L
  • 113. Multiple Regression Analysis Adjusted Coefficient of Determination 2 2 ( 1) 1 (1 ) ( ) n R R n k     
  • 114. Multiple Regression Analysis Analysis of Variance and F Statistic /( 1) /( ) ExplainedVariation k F UnexplainedVariation n k    2 2 /( 1) (1 ) /( ) R k F R n k    
  • 115. Problems in Regression Analysis • Multicollinearity: Two or more explanatory variables are highly correlated. • Heteroskedasticity: Variance of error term is not independent of the Y variable. • Autocorrelation: Consecutive error terms are correlated.
  • 116. Durbin-Watson Statistic Test for Autocorrelation 2 1 2 2 1 ( ) n t t t n t t e e d e        If d=2, autocorrelation is absent.
  • 117. Steps in Demand Estimation • Model Specification: Identify Variables • Collect Data • Specify Functional Form • Estimate Function • Test the Results
  • 118. Functional Form Specifications Linear Function: Power Function: 0 1 2 3 4X X YQ a a P a I a N a P e      L 1 2 ( )( )b b X X YQ a P P Estimation Format: 1 2ln ln ln lnX X YQ a b P b P  
  • 119.
  • 120. Minggu 6 - CHAPTER 5 DEMAND FORECASTING 6.1 Arti pentingnya peramalan ekonomi 6.2 Peramalan kualitatif 6.3 Analisis deret waktu 6.4 Teknik penghalusan 6.5 Model ekonometrika Back
  • 121. Qualitative Forecasts • Survey Techniques • Planned Plant and Equipment Spending • Expected Sales and Inventory Changes • Consumers’ Expenditure Plans • Opinion Polls • Business Executives • Sales Force • Consumer Intentions
  • 122. Time-Series Analysis • Secular Trend • Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data • Cyclical Fluctuations • Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction • Seasonal Variation • Regularly Occurring Fluctuations • Irregular or Random Influences
  • 123.
  • 124. Trend Projection • Linear Trend: St = S0 + b t b = Growth per time period • Constant Growth Rate St = S0 (1 + g)t g = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)
  • 125. Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast = Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
  • 126. Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method: Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50 Year Trend Forecast Actual Ratio 1992.1 12.29 11.00 0.8950 1993.1 13.87 12.00 0.8652 1994.1 15.45 14.00 0.9061 1995.1 17.02 15.00 0.8813 Seasonal Adjustment = 0.8869
  • 127. Moving Average Forecasts Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point. 1 w t i t i A F w    
  • 128. Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 1 (1 )t t tF wA w F    Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period. 0 1w 
  • 129. Root Mean Square Error 2 ( )t tA F RMSE n    Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method
  • 130. Barometric Methods • National Bureau of Economic Research • Department of Commerce • Leading Indicators • Lagging Indicators • Coincident Indicators • Composite Index • Diffusion Index
  • 131. Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e QX = Quantity of X PX = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population PS = Price of Muffins PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error
  • 132. Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP 1 1 1t t tC a bGNP u   2 2 1 2t t tI a b u    t t t tGNP C I G   2 11 2 1 1 11 1 1 t t t b Ga a GNP b b b         Reduced Form Equation
  • 133. Input-Output Forecasting Producing Industry Supplying Industry A B C Final Demand Total A 20 60 30 90 200 B 80 90 20 110 300 C 40 30 10 20 100 Value Added 60 120 40 220 Total 200 300 100 220 Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table
  • 134. Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix Producing Industry Supplying Industry A B C A 0.1 0.2 0.3 B 0.4 0.3 0.2 C 0.2 0.1 0.1 Direct Requirements Input Requirements Column Total =
  • 135. Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix Producing Industry Supplying Industry A B C A 1.47 0.51 0.60 B 0.96 1.81 0.72 C 0.43 0.31 1.33
  • 136. Input-Output Forecasting 1.47 0.51 0.60 0.96 1.81 0.72 0.43 0.31 1.33 90 110 20 = 200 300 100 Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector
  • 137. Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table Producing Industry Supplying Industry A B C Final Demand Total A 22 62 31 100 215 B 88 93 21 110 310 C 43 31 10 20 104
  • 138.
  • 139. Minggu 7 - CHAPTER 6 PRODUCTION THEORY AND ESTIMATION 7.1 Organisasi produksi dan fungsi produksi 7.2 Fungsi produksi dengan satu input variabel 7.3 Penggunaan input variabel secara optimal 7.4 Fungsi produksi dengan dua input variabel 7.5 Returnto scale Back
  • 140. The Organization of Production • Inputs • Labor, Capital, Land • Fixed Inputs • Variable Inputs • Short Run • At least one input is fixed • Long Run • All inputs are variable
  • 141. Production Function With Two Inputs K Q 6 10 24 31 36 40 39 5 12 28 36 40 42 40 4 12 28 36 40 40 36 3 10 23 33 36 36 33 2 7 18 28 30 30 28 1 3 8 12 14 14 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 L Q = f(L, K)
  • 142. Production Function With Two Inputs Discrete Production Surface
  • 143. Production Function With Two Inputs Continuous Production Surface
  • 144. Production Function With One Variable Input Total Product Marginal Product Average Product Production or Output Elasticity TP = Q = f(L) MPL = TP L APL = TP L EL = MPL APL
  • 145. Production Function With One Variable Input L Q MPL APL EL 0 0 - - - 1 3 3 3 1 2 8 5 4 1.25 3 12 4 4 1 4 14 2 3.5 0.57 5 14 0 2.8 0 6 12 -2 2 -1 Total, Marginal, and Average Product of Labor, and Output Elasticity
  • 146. Production Function With One Variable Input
  • 147. Production Function With One Variable Input
  • 148. Optimal Use of the Variable Input Marginal Revenue Product of Labor MRPL = (MPL)(MR) Marginal Resource Cost of Labor MRCL = TC L Optimal Use of Labor MRPL = MRCL
  • 149. Optimal Use of the Variable Input L MPL MR = P MRPL MRCL 2.50 4 $10 $40 $20 3.00 3 10 30 20 3.50 2 10 20 20 4.00 1 10 10 20 4.50 0 10 0 20 Use of Labor is Optimal When L = 3.50
  • 150. Optimal Use of the Variable Input
  • 151. Production With Two Variable Inputs Isoquants show combinations of two inputs that can produce the same level of output. Firms will only use combinations of two inputs that are in the economic region of production, which is defined by the portion of each isoquant that is negatively sloped.
  • 152. Production With Two Variable Inputs Isoquants
  • 153. Production With Two Variable Inputs Economic Region of Production
  • 154. Production With Two Variable Inputs Marginal Rate of Technical Substitution MRTS = -K/L = MPL/MPK
  • 155. Production With Two Variable Inputs MRTS = -(-2.5/1) = 2.5
  • 156. Production With Two Variable Inputs Perfect Substitutes Perfect Complements
  • 157. Optimal Combination of Inputs Isocost lines represent all combinations of two inputs that a firm can purchase with the same total cost. C wL rK  C w K L r r   C TotalCost ( )w WageRateof Labor L ( )r Cost of Capital K
  • 158. Optimal Combination of Inputs Isocost Lines AB C = $100, w = r = $10 A’B’ C = $140, w = r = $10 A’’B’’ C = $80, w = r = $10 AB* C = $100, w = $5, r = $10
  • 159. Optimal Combination of Inputs MRTS = w/r
  • 160. Optimal Combination of Inputs Effect of a Change in Input Prices
  • 161. Returns to Scale Production Function Q = f(L, K) Q = f(hL, hK) If  = h, then f has constant returns to scale. If  > h, then f has increasing returns to scale. If  < h, the f has decreasing returns to scale.
  • 162. Returns to Scale Constant Returns to Scale Increasing Returns to Scale Decreasing Returns to Scale
  • 163. Empirical Production Functions Cobb-Douglas Production Function Q = AKaLb Estimated using Natural Logarithms ln Q = ln A + a ln K + b ln L
  • 164. Innovations and Global Competitiveness • Product Innovation • Process Innovation • Product Cycle Model • Just-In-Time Production System • Competitive Benchmarking • Computer-Aided Design (CAD) • Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)
  • 165.
  • 166. Minggu 8 - CHAPTER 7 COST THEORY AND ESTIMATION 8.1 Karakteristik biaya 8.2 Fungsi biaya jangka pendek 8.3. Estimasi biaya 8.4 Kurva pembelajaran 8.5 Peramalan biaya Back
  • 167. The Nature of Costs • Explicit Costs • Accounting Costs • Economic Costs • Implicit Costs • Alternative or Opportunity Costs • Relevant Costs • Incremental Costs • Sunk Costs are Irrelevant
  • 168. Short-Run Cost Functions Total Cost = TC = f(Q) Total Fixed Cost = TFC Total Variable Cost = TVC TC = TFC + TVC
  • 169. Short-Run Cost Functions Average Total Cost = ATC = TC/Q Average Fixed Cost = AFC = TFC/Q Average Variable Cost = AVC = TVC/Q ATC = AFC + AVC Marginal Cost = TC/Q = TVC/Q
  • 170. Short-Run Cost Functions Q TFC TVC TC AFC AVC ATC MC 0 $60 $0 $60 - - - - 1 60 20 80 $60 $20 $80 $20 2 60 30 90 30 15 45 10 3 60 45 105 20 15 35 15 4 60 80 140 15 20 35 35 5 60 135 195 12 27 39 55
  • 171. Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved. Slide 171
  • 172. Short-Run Cost Functions Average Variable Cost AVC = TVC/Q = w/APL Marginal Cost TC/Q = TVC/Q = w/MPL
  • 173. Long-Run Cost Curves Long-Run Total Cost = LTC = f(Q) Long-Run Average Cost = LAC = LTC/Q Long-Run Marginal Cost = LMC = LTC/Q
  • 174. Derivation of Long-Run Cost Curves
  • 175. Relationship Between Long-Run and Short-Run Average Cost Curves
  • 177. Learning Curves Average Cost of Unit Q = C = aQb Estimation Form: log C = log a + b Log Q
  • 178. Minimizing Costs Internationally • Foreign Sourcing of Inputs • New International Economies of Scale • Immigration of Skilled Labor • Brain Drain
  • 179. Logistics or Supply Chain Management • Merges and integrates functions • Purchasing • Transportation • Warehousing • Distribution • Customer Services • Source of competitive advantage
  • 180. Logistics or Supply Chain Management • Reasons for the growth of logistics • Advances in computer technology • Decreased cost of logistical problem solving • Growth of just-in-time inventory management • Increased need to monitor and manage input and output flows • Globalization of production and distribution • Increased complexity of input and output flows
  • 181. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis Total Revenue = TR = (P)(Q) Total Cost = TC = TFC + (AVC)(Q) Breakeven Volume TR = TC (P)(Q) = TFC + (AVC)(Q) QBE = TFC/(P - AVC)
  • 182. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis P = 40 TFC = 200 AVC = 5 QBE = 40
  • 183. Operating Leverage Operating Leverage = TFC/TVC Degree of Operating Leverage = DOL % ( ) % ( ) Q P AVC DOL Q Q P AVC TFC       
  • 184. Operating Leverage TC’ has a higher DOL than TC and therefore a higher QBE
  • 185. Empirical Estimation Data Collection Issues • Opportunity Costs Must be Extracted from Accounting Cost Data • Costs Must be Apportioned Among Products • Costs Must be Matched to Output Over Time • Costs Must be Corrected for Inflation
  • 186. Empirical Estimation Functional Form for Short-Run Cost Functions 2 3 TVC aQ bQ cQ   2TVC AVC a bQ cQ Q     2 2 3MC a bQ cQ   Theoretical Form Linear Approximation TVC a bQ  a AVC b Q   MC b
  • 187. Empirical Estimation Theoretical Form Linear Approximation
  • 188. Empirical Estimation Long-Run Cost Curves • Cross-Sectional Regression Analysis • Engineering Method • Survival Technique
  • 189. Empirical Estimation Actual LAC versus empirically estimated LAC’