1. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 1
Terrorism and Globalization:
A Cross-National Examination of Transnational Terrorist Attacks
Amanda Grifka
An applied research project submitted in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of Master of Arts
Master of Arts
Political Science Department
Central Michigan University
Mount Pleasant, Michigan
May 2014
2. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 2
Abstract
This research investigates potential associations between globalization and transnational
terrorism. Recent research in the field of terrorism suggests a shift from the old, traditional form
of state-sponsored terrorism, into “new” terrorism motivated primarily by religious and ethnic
grievances. What explains the dramatic spread of terrorism in recent decades? I investigate the
association of economic globalization, political globalization and social globalization on the
lethality of transnational terrorist attacks. Using newly collected cross-national, time-series data,
I employ multivariate regression analysis in an attempt to explain the impact of globalization on
terrorism.
Introduction
The study of terrorism has expanded dramatically since the 1970s. Because of the media
and technological advances, terrorism became an international topic of interests to scholars and
citizens alike (Cronin, 2003). For a phenomena that has resulted in a large amount of
publications (more than 6,000 works have been published about terrorism since the 1970s), much
of methodology is psychological terrorism theories (LaFree and Freilich, 2012). In order to
understand terrorism from an empirical perspective, I employ quantitative methods. The goal of
this paper is to investigate the association between globalization and the rise of new terrorism.1
This paper is organized with a brief introduction and history of transnational terrorism, mainly
how terrorism has changed following the Cold War. I then provide a literature review of research
about terrorism and globalization. The latter part of the paper uses linear regression models to
analyze the relationship between terrorism and globalization using data from the ITERATE
terrorism dataset and the KOF Globalization Index.
1
Terrorism is measured in this research by the number of victims, not the number of attacks. More on this
can be found in the Research Design Section.
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Brief Distinction of “Old” Versus “New” Terrorism
Before the 1990s, transnational terrorism was primarily motivated by nationalism,
separatism, Marxist ideology, racism, nihilism and economic inequality. Following the end of the
Cold War, transnational terrorism has shifted to motivations of religious-based terrorism
(Wilkinson, 1986 in Enders and Sandler, 2000; Field, 2009). The ideological Islamic
fundamentalist pose the greatest international terrorism threat, perpetuated by the rapid growth of
Muslim communities in western societies and the belief, like other fundamentalists groups, that
those faithful to other religions than their own are deemed to go to hell and must be sent there as
soon as possible (Moghaddam, 2008).
Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the language of terrorism
portrayed by the media, political leaders and some scholars shifted from traditional terrorism or
“old terrorism” to what is being called “new terrorism.” Old terrorism is commonly defined as
having a hierarchical organizational structure, territorially oriented within a home region,
politically/nationalistic in motivation, restraining of violence and system-affirming (Gofas,
2012). Former leaders George W. Bush and Tony Blair referred to this new terrorism as being
fundamentally different from the terrorism of the past. New terrorism was described to the public
by policymakers and world leaders as “driven not by a set of negotiable political demands, but
by religious fanaticism” (Blair, 2004 in Field, 2009). Similarly, former President Bush (2002)
warned of “the growing threat of terror attack on a catastrophic scale – terror armed with
biological, chemical or nuclear weapons.” Blair’s successor, Gordan Brown (2006), also asserted
that modern terrorism is new and “multidimensional in its operations” (Field, 2009).
In academics, the concept of new terrorism was conceived well before the attacks of
September 11 and was widely discussed during the 1990s by scholars in the field. By the late
4. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 4
1990s, four trends in terrorism were becoming apparent: an increase in the incidence of
religiously motivated attacks, a decrease in the overall number of attacks, an increase in the
lethality per attack and the growing targeting of Americans.2
Furthermore, scholars argued that
terrorism had dramatically shifted in recent years (Hoffman, 1993; Laqueur, 1999; O’Lesser,
1999 in Field, 2009). According to Gofas (2012), new terrorism is more loosely structured than
traditional terrorism, transnational rather than local, religiously motivated rather than politically,
deliberately targets civilians and is aimed at causing maximum destruction. A similar opinion is
shared by Field (2009), who further elaborates on key differences between traditional and new
terrorism. First, the overall purpose of terrorism has changed from functional violence backed by
political strategy to symbolic violence aimed at destruction and punishment. Whereas traditional
terrorism had a clear objective in its act, new terrorism, such as that of the World Trade Center
bombing, is aimed at having a symbolic statement achieved by the dramatic use of power
(Juergensmeyer, 2000 in Field, 2009). New terrorists are less rational in their approach to
violence than their predecessors and believe it is their duty to eliminate certain social, religious
and cultural groups (Hoffman, 1995 in Field, 2009). Second, new terrorist are less willing to
negotiate and compromise than traditional terrorist. Old terrorism had clear objectives
(political/national ideological changes) that created a basis for negotiations and communication
with governments. However, new terrorists “are not seeking a seat at the negotiating table; they
want to blow up the table altogether and build a new one in its place” (Cilluffo and Tomarchio,
1998 in Field, 2009). Third, the scale of terrorist demands has increased. Old terrorism had
limited objectives restricted to specific geographical areas in close proximity to the terrorist. In
contrast, new terrorism seeks to change the entire international system rather than the political
2
I will only be focusing on two of these four trends—the decrease in overall number of attacks and the
increase in the lethality per attack.
5. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 5
situation of a specific region or country. Fourth, new terrorism is different from traditional
terrorism in its organizational structure. Traditional terrorism was organized by tight hierarchical
groups; new terrorism is structured in international networks that are loosely connected. New
terrorism uses a horizontal system of coordination and cooperation, as opposed to the
conventional vertical, hierarchy system. Fifth, new terrorism is more lethal than old terrorism. In
the past, terrorist believed that too many casualties could undermine their legitimacy and turn
away supporters. However, new terrorist are less concerned with appearing legitimate and
instead believe their actions have received divine authorization, which makes them more willing
to kill. This is supported by an overall rise in the number of causalities caused by international
terrorist attacks (Hoffman, 1989 in Field, 2009). Such was the case with the September 11
attacks that “perpetrated a series of mass casualty attacks that went beyond anything previously
undertaken by traditional terrorist groups” (Field, 2009). Lastly, new terrorism is closely linked
with weapons of mass destruction, whereas traditional terrorist had little use for such weapons.
New terrorist are more likely to use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to achieve their
goals, which are often extreme in the elimination of religious opponents (Field, 2009).
Moreover, along with the shift in terrorist organizations’ objectives in the 1990s, there
has also been a decrease in state sponsorship of terrorism and an increase in anti-terrorism
efforts. Although the number of transnational terrorism incidents has decreased since the end of
the Cold War, the number of casualties has increased since 1997. The threat of future terrorist
attacks continues to be daunting to its sought-after targets (Sandler, 2013; Enders and Sandler,
2000). Furthermore, it appears new terrorism is not only fundamentally different at its core,
objectives and goals, but is also more dangerous since it has resulted in more causalities with less
actual attacks. What explains new terrorisms’ ability to be more dangerous than old terrorism?
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Why is transnational terrorism now more lethal than ever before? The research of Tucker (2001),
concludes that international terrorism became more lethal from the period of 1969-1980 to 1987-
1999. Tucker’s findings are based on the methodology by “dividing the number of causalities
and fatalities in any given period by the total number of incidents in the same period.”
The new terrorism of the 1990s is often discussed by scholars and policymakers in
conjunction with characteristics of globalization, as globalization started having a profound
impact on the international system with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow and the
Warsaw Pact countries were the leading trainers of terrorists and the leaders in weapons to
terrorists. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, weapon access was no longer
controlled, influenced or even known to the Soviets, who had previously restricted the choices of
weapons to such groups. Access to newer, more sophisticated weapons by these non-state actors
was now easier with the unemployed former Soviet weaponry experts being easily seduced by
offers from abroad. Soviet allies in the Middle East, particularly Iraq, Syria and Libya lost the
indirect protection that Soviet friendship and interests in its major weapons clients afforded.
Furthermore, the security agency of the Soviet Union had been able to indirectly and directly
control some of the targeting of the terrorists groups supported by Moscow’s allies, satellites and
friends and deter attacks from Americans since it was not in the interest of the Soviets’ interests
(Radu, 2002). Globalization has not only shaped what terrorism is in and of itself, as discussed
above, but globalization has also affected how terrorism has spread into the international system.
The availability and ease of transporting information, technology, capital and people from the
rapid spread of globalization following the Cold War is advantageous to terrorist organizations
(Radu, 2002). Transnational terrorists organization now cooperate with each other and
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international criminals for funds, recruitment and arms, all made easier with advances in
communications, transportation and financial transactions.
Literature Review
Defining Terrorism
The study of terrorism began in the late 1960s with a focus of defining terrorism, the
causes of terrorism, the tactics of terrorists and identifying the primary terrorism groups and
movements (Sandler, 2013). Since the beginning of terrorism studies, a consistent definition has
yet to be established. Definitions not only vary among scholars internationally, but also vary
internally in the United States among the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Department of
Homeland Security, U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Department of Defense (Hoffman,
2012). Hoffman takes into account the definitions of terrorism used by the above mentioned
institutions of counter-terrorism and defines terrorism as being characterized by: “ineluctably
political in aims and motives; violent—or, equally important, threatens violence; designed to
have far-reaching psychology repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target; conducted
either by an organization with an identifiable chain of command or conspiratorial cell structure
or by individuals or a small collection of individuals directly influences, motivated or inspired by
the ideological aims or example of some existent terrorist movement and/or its leaders; and
perpetrated by a subnational group or non-state entity.” A similar, more concise definition of
terrorism to be used here forth is: “Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat to use violence by
individuals or subnational groups against noncombatants in order to obtain a political or social
objective through the intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims”
(Enders, Sandler, Gaibulloev, 2011).
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A political motive and lack of state-sponsored terrorism is consistent with the definition
of terrorism by Sandler (2013) and Zimmermann (2011). Sandler (2013) further classifies
transnational terrorist attacks as involving victims, perpetrators, targets, supporters or territory
from more than one country, whereas domestic terrorist attacks are originating in the home of the
attackers and home are directed. As such, events that start in one country and end in another are
transnational (Enders and Sander, 2000). Scholars have also discussed the terminology
differences of transnational terrorism and international terrorism. Martin (1986) and Mickolus et
al. (2012) distinguish the international terrorism as terrorists controlled by a sovereign state and
transnational terrorist as autonomous non-state actors.
Defining Globalization
The topic of globalization became prominent in the early 1980s. Globalization research is
traditionally focused on at least one of four foundations: capitalism and economic systems (some
scholars dating globalization in this field back at least a few thousand years), technology,
political dimensions (governments shape private entrepreneurship industry) and socio-cultural
changes. Furthermore, the history of globalization can be viewed with two significant turning
points: communication separated from transportation in the 1830s and the establishment of
global networks in the 1970s (Dreher et al., 2008). The most recent wave of globalization took
place with the invention of the computer and the fall of the Soviet Union (Zimmermann, 2011).
Globalization can be summarized as being “an extension and intensification in the exchange of
goods, persons and ideas” (Held et al., 1999 in Zimmerman, 2011).
Globalization has been defined as including: the increased dissemination of ideas and
technologies (Albrow, 1996; Shin, 2009); the growing integration of markets and nation-states
and the spread of technological advancements (Friedman, 2005; Shin 2009); receding
9. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 9
geographical constraints on social and cultural arrangements (Waters, 1995); or the
transformation of the economic, political and cultural foundations of societies (Shin, 2009;
Mittleman, 2000 in Dreher et al., 2008). Simply, globalization is the free flow of goods, services,
people, capital and information (Sirgy, 2007). Thus, it is apparent that globalization is a multi-
dimensional concept that has economic, social, cultural, political, and environmental dimensions,
among others (Keohane and Nye, 2000; Leidner, 2010; Martens et al., 2010 in Mukherjee and
Krieckhaus; Shin, 2009).
The current wave of terrorism is not only a reaction to globalization, but is facilitated by
it (Cronin, 2003). There is a multitude of literature on the association between terrorism and
globalization. Since globalization has multiple dimensions, below I examine terrorism by each
dimension of globalization—economic globalization, political globalization and social/cultural
globalization.
Economic Globalization and Terrorism
Economic globalization refers to increased flows of capital, goods and services across
international boundaries (Mukherjee and Krieckhaus, 2011). Information technologies, such as
the Internet, mobile phones and instant messaging, have extended the global reach of terrorist
(Tucker, 2001). These information tools have led to more efficiency in terrorist organizations,
including administrative tasks, coordination of operations, communication among members and
recruitment efforts. Before the attacks of September 11, members of Al-Qaeda used Yahoo Mail
as a communication tool and the Internet to research chemical weapons. Information to build
weapons of mass destruction is easily available through the Internet to terrorist organizations.
Furthermore, economic globalization has significantly eased the communication and planning
processes for transnational terrorist organizations. Globalization’s impact on information
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technology is often seen as a positive to the international system. However, it has resulted in the
ease of operations for terrorists. It has allowed for goods, including weapons, and people to
travel further distances in shorter periods of time and with less difficulties. As commerce and
business interests are no longer restricted by borders, so too are terrorists seen as borderless
entities. Although economic benefits of globalization are shown to allow for terrorist
organization to operate with more ease and thus more effectively, there is also the opposite
impact of economic globalization. Many terrorist attacks occur in regions not strongly integrated
by globalization. In these areas, international interests only exists for easily exploitable raw
materials. Divisions of labor create minority populations that do not share in the benefits of a
more globalized country and thus support a corrupt culture of terrorism (Zimmerman, 2011).
The financial system is globalized, allowing terrorists to gather financial resources
through the web, international businesses, nonprofits and charities often unknown to the donors
(Cronin, 2003). Zimmerman (2011) acknowledges that globalization increases the mobility of
militant terrorist groups and the capital they can receive as well as their ability to disseminate
information and propaganda. He also finds that globalization can be a background factor for
international terrorism because it provides for more ideological competition and access to new
financial resources and weapons.
Goldman (2010) concludes that terrorism has become more local and less global. One
explanation of Goldman is the low profitability of transnational terrorist attacks in relation to
local attacks. Furthermore, Goldman’s study does not take into account the severity of terrorist
attacks by considering the number of causalities resulting from each attack.
11. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 11
Political Globalization and Terrorism
Political globalization occurs when countries involve themselves in international political
relationships, such as establishing embassies in foreign countries, joining international
organizations, international treaties and participating in UN Security Council Missions
(Mukherjee and Krieckhaus, 2011). According to Cronin (2003), the Arab world has the most
threatening religiously inspired terrorism. This region blames the United States and Western
world for being left behind by the promise of globalization and its assurance of broader freedom,
prosperity and access to knowledge. Additionally, much of the anti-American terrorism is rooted
in the desire to change the United States foreign policy in the Middle East (Cronin, 2003). Thus,
terrorism can be explained partially in terms of political aspects of globalization with the
objectives of terrorists organizations that are anti-American and against the political policies of
the United States.
Additionally, an increase in international organizations from political globalization can
lead to domestic policy changes within a country. Involvement in international political systems
can bring into domestic policy areas interests such as human rights and management of
epidemics (Tsai, 2006), which appear beneficial to all of society, but in fact may result in
hostilities by some individuals and groups. Involvement in international governance causes
heavily led by the West attempts to bring democratic beliefs to the rest of the world. Terrorism
can be facilitated by this contempt for the West and the attempt at bring political changes to
other regions that are not welcoming of such changes.
Social/Cultural Globalization and Terrorism
Social globalization refers to the extent of informal interaction among states and
individuals, such as international tourism, media and other forms of information exchange.
12. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 12
Social globalization leads to greater exposure to the prevailing international conditions, ideas,
norms and cultures of other states (Mukherjee and Krieckhaus (2011). Religiously motivated
terror attacks are thought to be more likely to cause mass casualties because unlike politically
motivated attacks, they are not constrained by fear that excessive violence will offend some
constituency, since they only care about a small circle of elect (Tucker, 2001). Furthermore,
religiously motivated terrorist organizations have increased from zero in 1968, to two (out of 64
known terrorist organizations) in 1980 and 25 (out of 58) by 1995 (Cronin, 2003).
Cultural globalization brings new knowledge, education and opinion to people from other
cultures. International fundamentalist Islamic terrorism is a cultural phenomenon. Every known
associate or alleged associate of Al-Qaeda in Europe, the Middle East and North America is
university educated and of the middle class or higher. Bid Laden himself was a multimillionaire.
Terrorist organizations make no attempt to link their cause with poverty or economic inequality.
Their objective is completely cultural and their aim is to fight Western culture (Radu, 2002).
Globalization has likely facilitated terrorist organizations in bringing their goals and opinions to
all parts of the world.
Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses
Since globalization has progressively increased each year per country, it makes sense
logically to test the effects of globalization on terrorism in order to better understand if
globalization has facilitated terrorism to become more deadly. I argue that because of rises in
globalization, terrorism has also risen. Economic globalization has allowed for the ease of
transferring goods and money and resulted in labor divisions and opportunity for exploitation for
terrorists. Political globalization has allowed for terrorist organizations to extend their political
objectives internationally. Social and cultural globalization has resulted in clashes of culture that
13. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 13
has allowed terrorists to extend their cultural goals. I argue that because of globalization,
terrorism is more lethal and thus more dangerous. It is no longer just a concern of a terrorist
attack; now the lethality of the attack is of greater concern.
Transnational terrorism is encouraged internationally by the social and cultural advances
of globalization and executed by the economic and capital advances brought to all regions of the
world from globalization. Globalization has made it easier for terrorists to carry out attacks in
various regions that can be geographically located anywhere in the world; location is no longer a
constraint. Advancements in technology, communications, financial systems and transportation
has allowed terrorist to plan and plot from one location and execute an attack in a completely
different region. Additionally, economic advances have allowed for more sophistication in
weaponry, which makes terrorism more dangerous. The following hypothesis can be derived
from the foregoing argument:
H1: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in economic globalization.
I anticipate that as a country becomes more politically globalized, anti-terrorism policies
become more internationally motivated, meaning countries formulate similar policies in order to
appear concise and consistent in battling terrorism. While at first this would seem to deter
terrorist, it can actually have the opposing effect and allow for terrorist to have it easier in
planning an attack. Additionally, political globalization creates foreign policies that may not be
supported all over the world, creating hostilities and an aim to change those policies. Terrorist
organizations dislike participation in international organizations that threaten their organization.
The following hypothesis can be derived from the foregoing argument:
H2: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in political globalization.
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Since modern terrorism is religiously and culturally motivated, I hypothesize that
terrorism is to associated with cultural globalization. Expansion of ideas and cultures can result
in hatred for certain lifestyles (Western/American), resulting in dislike and distaste for nations
that exhibit such behavior. Terrorist organizations that are largely religiously motivated feel
threatened by Western culture. Increasing cultural globalization brings together vastly different
cultures, norms, beliefs and customs, of which some are bound to compete with each other. Thus,
the following hypothesis can be derived:
H3: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in social globalization.
From the three aforementioned hypotheses, I also establish a fourth hypothesis. Since I
expect each individual dimension of globalization (economic, political and social) to be
associated with a rise in terrorism, I presume a cumulative measure of globalization to have the
same effect.
H4: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in globalization.
Data and Research Design
This research will be a quantitative, large-N, empirical time series. I am using secondary
data from the International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE) database to
measure terrorism. The globalization data comes from the KOF Index of Globalization. The
KOF Index is widely used in research because it provides an aggregated measure of economic,
political, cultural and overall globalization for 184 countries from 1970 to 2010. The data is
organized by year and by country, which is necessary for this study since I am investigating
countries over time. This study will cover the period from 1970 to 2010. The number of
observations for my study is 177 (n=177). Appendix A lists all of the 177 cases.
15. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 15
Dependent Variable
The dependent variable for my research is the sum total number of people killed and
wounded in terrorist attacks from 1970 to 2010. I use the measure of victims of terrorist attacks
because I am interested in the lethality of terrorism. Figure 1 shows that the number of terrorist
attacks has remained fairly consistent, with an average of 320 transnational attacks per year,
ranging from as few as 53 recorded attacks in 2001 to 579 in 1991. Victims are individuals who
are directly harmed by the terrorist incident. Individuals wounded who later die are only
categorized as victims killed. The terrorism data is from the ITERATE database compiled by
Mickolus, Sandler, Murdock and Flemming (2012).3
ITERATE gather’s information from newspapers and media outlets from across the
world. The definition of transnational terrorism used by ITERATE is “the use, or threat of use, of
anxiety-inducing, extra-normal violence for political purposes by any individual or group,
3
There are other terrorism databases available, including Global Terrorism Database, RAND Database of
Worldwide Terrorism Incidents and National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT).
I am using ITERATE because it is produced by leading terrorism-studies political scientists and is robust
in characteristics recorded for each terror attack.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TerroristAttacksandVictims
Worldwide Number of Terrorist Victims vs
Number of Attack
Number of Terrorist Victims
Number of Terrorist Attacks
16. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 16
whether acting for or in opposition to established governmental authority, when such action is
intended to influence the attitudes and behavior of a target group wider than the immediate
victims and when, through the nationality or foreign ties of its perpetrators, its location, the
nature of its institutional or human victims, or the mechanics of its resolution, its ramifications
transcend national boundaries”
(Mickolus et al., 2012). ITERATE data
excludes terrorist incidents associated
with declared wars or military
interventions. Terrorist attacks against
combatants are excluded and attacks
toward peacekeepers are included.
Figure 2 is the distribution of the
dependent variable. There is skewness of
4.26 in the positive direction.
Furthermore, terrorism is not normal, per
se, so it logically makes sense that the number of victims will vary across time and cases.
Independent Variables
The main independent variables are the disaggregated measures of globalization from the
Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) Index of Globalization produced by the KOF Swiss
Economic Institute.4
The three measures—economic, political and social—are themselves drawn
from 24 sub-indices in order to provide a holistic, multifaceted representation of globalization
(Dreher, 2006). The KOF Index is an elaborate, widely cited index for measuring globalization
4
The KOF Globalization Index is available at www.globalization.kof.ethz.ch.
17. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 17
because it covers 207 countries from 1970 to 2010 and provides a globalization value, from 0 =
no globalization to 100 = complete globalization, for economic globalization, social
globalization, political globalization and overall globalization. The overall globalization levels
are measured by the three dimensions of globalization being weighted nearly equally as follows:
1) economic globalization weighted at 36%, 2) social globalization weighted at 37% and 3)
political globalization weighted at 26%. Furthermore, economic globalization is equally divided
(50% each) into actual flows (trade, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and income
payments to foreign nationals) and restrictions (hidden import barriers, tariff rate, taxes on
international trade and capital account restrictions). Political globalization is measured by the
number of embassies in a country, membership in international organizations, participation in
United Nations Security Council’s Peacekeeping Missions and international treaties. Social
globalization is divided into data on personal contract (34%), data on information flows (35%)
and data on cultural proximity (31%). Person contact includes telephone traffic, transfers,
international tourism, foreign population and international letters. Information flows includes
Internet users, televisions and trade in newspapers. Cultural proximity includes number of
McDonald’s restaurants, number of Ikea stores and trade in books. See Appendix B for complete
list with weight of the globalization variables.
Each
dimension
of
globalization
is
normally
distributed.
Table 1 Descriptive Statistics
Mean Minimum Maximum
Number of People Killed and
Wounded from Terrorism
279 0 4,690
Economic Globalization 48.08 0 94.90
Political Globalization 50.94 1.60 50.94
Social Globalization 40.56 8.18 83.70
Overall Globalization 46.17 18.47 84.46
Sources: ITERATE; KOF Globalization Index
18. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 18
Control Variables
I use regional dummy variables to control for geographic differences across the world. I
am interested if globalization is impacting terrorism in some parts of the world but not others.
Countries were categories into one of seven regions: Sub-Sahara Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe,
Middle East and North Africa, Eurasia, South and Central America, North America and Oceania.
Oceania is used as the point of reference.
I also control for degree of freedom. I expect a country that is freer to have less terrorism.
Citizens that are freer will not feel constrained by their government. Thus, countries that are less
free will experience more terrorism because the people (terrorist) have less opportunities and less
freedom from their government to do as they please, causing the people (terrorist) to be angry. I
use freedom data from the Freedom House.5
Countries are coded 0 = not free, 1 = partially free
or 2 = completely free.
I control for democracy because democratic regimes are less violent. Democratic regimes
are more representative of the desires of the citizens; thus, countries that are democracies will
have less terrorism because its citizens will adopt policies that are anti-terrorism. I use data from
the Polity IV Project6
to code countries from -10 (autocratic) to 10 (democratic) to test the
impact of democracy on terrorism.
Empirical Methods
The cross-national study uses data from 1970 to 2010 and the unit of analysis is country
year. The number of observations for my study is 177 (n=177). Appendix A lists all of the 177
cases. The KOF database includes values for all countries from 1968 to 2012 with exceptions to
some country-year combination that was not available when the data was collected. I will use the
5
Freedom House data is available at www.freedomhouse.org.
6
Polity IV Project data is available at www.systemicpeace.org.
19. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 19
dependent variable data availability to determine if that case is used (where there is a value
provided, that will be used for the measure). I use ordinary least squares (OLS) regression
analysis to test the impact of globalization on terrorism. Four models are used to investigate
economic globalization, political globalization, social globalization and overall globalization.
The results are reported in Table 3 and Table 4 below.
Findings
Before using the OLS model, I created a simple correlation matrix of the four
independent variables. Table 2 summarizes the results. Column one reports the correlation
between terrorism and each measure of globalization. The only correlation that is significant with
respect to terrorism is political globalization, with Pearson’s r value of .227, indicating some
correlation (recall +1 is complete positive correlation, 0 is no correlation and -1 is complete
negative correlation). Interestingly, economic globalization and social globalization are
correlated at a .724, indicating that these measures overlap. However, this is not the case since
both are using very different measures. Moreover, it is expected that as a country increases in
one form of globalization, it also increases in the other types, which explains why the two
dimensions are correlated.
Table 2 Correlations of Terrorism and Globalization
Terrorism Economic Political Social Overall
Terrorism .061 .227*** .023 .099
Economic .061 .398*** .724*** .835***
Political .227*** .398*** .297*** .671***
Social .023 .724*** .297*** .898***
Overall .099 .835*** .671*** .898***
***p<.01
20. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 20
Moving to the OLS regression, I begin by examining the association between terrorism
and globalization without any control variables. Models 1-4, reported in Table 3, show the
results. Model 1 tests H1: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in economic
globalization. The results are not significant, indicating that economic globalization is not
associated with a rise in the number of people killed and wounded in terrorist attacks.
Additionally, regardless of statistical significance, only 4 percent of the variance of terrorism is
explained by economic globalization, meaning almost nothing is explained.
Model 2 reports the results for political globalization and terrorism and test H2:
Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in political globalization. According to Table 3,
Model 2 supports H2, indicating that terrorism is positively associated with political
globalization. Political globalization is statistically significant (p<.01; t>2) and indicates that for
Table 3 OLS Regression of Terrorism and Globalization
Model 1: Economic
Globalization
Model 2: Political
Globalization
Model 3: Social
Globalization
Model 4: Overall
Globalization
Coefficient t Coefficient t Coefficient t Coefficient t
(Constant) 160.55
(124.199)
1.293 -85.03
(126.5)
-672 240.229
(118.593)
2.026 82.242
(3.339)
.505
Economic
Globalization
1.79
(2.398)
.747 -- -- -- -- -- --
Political
Globalization
-- -- 7.00***
(2.282)
3.07 -- -- -- --
Social
Globalization
-- -- -- -- .799
(2.627)
.304 -- --
Overall
Globalization
-- -- -- -- -- -- 4.261
(3.339)
1.276
R-Squared .004 .052 .001 .101
Note: N=177. See Appendix A
***p<0.01
Standard errors in parentheses
The aggregated globalization data was used for calculating overall effect of globalization on terrorism.
21. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 21
Table 4 OLS Regression of Terrorism and Globalization with Geographic Regions
Model 5: Economic
Globalization
Model 6: Political
Globalization
Model 7: Social
Globalization
Model 8: Overall
Globalization
Coefficient t Coefficient t Coefficient t Coefficient t
(Constant) -77.64
(272.24)
-.29 -354.62
(251.08)
-1.41 -12.3
(277.48)
-.04 -351.67
(295.82)
-1.19
Economic
Globalization
-3.38
(2.98)
-1.14 -- -- -- -- -3.17
(3.35)
-.95
Political
Globalization
-- -- 5.85**
(2.66)
2.20 -- -- 8.00**
(2.79)
2.86
Social
Globalization
-- -- -- -- -4.724
(3.71)
-1.27 -2.29
(4.10)
-.56
Freedom 2.51
(82.60)
.03 -43.74
(83.52)
-.52 -3.34
(86.75)
-.04 -5.40
(81.19)
-.07
Democracy 47.49***
(11.83)
4.01 32.10**
(12.85)
2.50 46.81***
(12.64)
3.70 38.38**
(12.30)
3.12
North
America
292.42
(349.42)
.84 35.79
(406.47)
.09 340.64
(406.49)
.84 101.56
(358.34)
.28
Central/South
America
218.57
(246.87)
.89 163.67
(254.07)
.64 204.45
(257.19)
.80 168.95
(241.94)
.70
Europe
Eurasia
Asia Pacific
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
256
(249.52)
522.93
(317.23)
531.38**
(262.60)
980.87***
(282.58)
456.46*
(251.53)
1.03
1.65
2.02
3.47
1.82
111.56
(259.36)
420.79
(320.52)
404.06
(265.34)
1089.76***
(290.39)
355.08
(257.93)
.43
1.31
1.52
3.75
1.38
291.74
(263.58)
499.12
(324.58)
442.13
(271.76)
8284.51***
(287.94)
372.96
(264.76)
1.11
1.54
1.63
4.46
1.41
169.56
(252.95)
556.07*
(311.93)
454.77*
(258.79)
907.23***
(279.84)
389.86
(248.85)
.67
1.78
1.76
3.24
1.57
R-Squared .158 .202 .188 .207
Note: N=177. See Appendix A
***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1
Standard errors in parentheses
22. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 22
every one increase in political globalization (recall globalization is measured on a 0 to 100
scale), the victims of terrorism increases by seven individuals. Although this association is in
support of my hypothesis, it only explains 5.2% of the variance of terrorism, which again is
negligible.
Turning to Model 3, social globalization is found to be not statistically significant,
resulting in an acceptance of the null of H3: Terrorism is positively associated with a rise in
social globalization. Accepting the null hypothesis indicates that the amount of social
globalization does not have an effect on the lethality of terrorism. Had the relationship been
significant, this model produced the lowest R-squared of the three models indicated that only 1
percent of the variance of terrorism is explained by social globalization.
For Model 4, I used the aggregated measure of globalization to test H4: Terrorism is
positively associated with a rise in globalization. Again, the model nor the globalization variable
are significant in this regression. After looking at the impact of globalization on the number of
victims of terrorism, I then created Models 5-8 with the addition of control variables. Models 5-7
were ran the same as models 1-3 (for economic globalization, political globalization and social
globalization, respectively) except with the addition of freedom and democracy variables and
geographic regional dummy variables. Table 4 reports the findings.
Model 5, economic globalization, is not significant as a model, nor is economic
globalization statistically significant. However, democracy is statistically significant, indicating
that as democracy increases, the number of victims of terrorism increases. This is the opposite
effect I had hypothesized for the regime type variable. Model 5 also has regional dummy
variables of significance for the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East and North Africa region and
the Sub-Saharan region. All three regions have a positive coefficient, which means that being in
23. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 23
one of these three regions increases the number of victims of terrorism compared to being in the
Oceania region. Adding the control and region variables increased the R-squared from Model 1
(.004) to .158 in Model 5, indicating that the addition of freedom and democracy as well as
regional controls explains more of the variance of terrorism than globalization alone.
Model 6 has the main independent variable as significant, political globalization, which
indicates that as political globalization increases, the victims of terrorism also increases by
almost 6 victims. Again, democracy is significant and positive, indicating as democracy
increases, terrorism victims also increase. For the geographic regions, only the Middle East and
North Africa region is statistically significant with a coefficient of over 1,000. This means that
for the political globalization model, victims of terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa
region increase by 1,089 in reference to the Oceania region. About 20 percent of the variance is
explained by Model 6.
Model 7, the social globalization, is very similar to Model 6, except social globalization
is not significant. Democracy and the Middle East and North Africa region are the only
statistically significant variables in this model. The Middle East and North Africa variable
indicates that being from this region compared to the Oceania region results 8,284 more victims
of terrorism.
For Model 8, I included all three dimensions of globalization instead of the overall
globalization indexed value I used in Model 5. Model 8 has the highest R-squared, meaning that
taking all three dimensions of globalization together produces the strongest variance for
explaining the number of victims of terrorism. The model itself is not significant and only
political globalization is significant, indicating that as political globalization increases by one
point, the number of victims of terrorism increases by 8 people. Democracy is significant, as
24. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 24
expected since it is significant for the three other models. Asia Pacific and the Middle East and
North Africa are also statistically significant. A change in Model 8 from Models 5-7 is the
significance of Eurasia, indicating that the number of victims in Eurasia increases by 556
compared to Oceania when taking all forms of globalization, freedom levels and democracy into
the formula.
Considerations
None of the eight models produced any significance for the freedom score variable. This
implies that it does not matter the degree of freedom of a country in deterring victims of
terrorism. While this does not logically follow from previous literature, the coding (0, 1 or 2)
may be an explanation for why this variable is not significant. Had I used a larger scale, the
results may be different.
As stated in the introduction of this research, much of the terrorism research is
qualitative, not quantitative. Terrorism itself is a difficult phenomena to operationalize. While I
believe my measure is the best measure for this model, I do not ignore that there are pitfalls. The
ITERATE dataset provides exact counts of victims that are wounded and killed. It also provides
an indicator if there were victims, but the exact amount is unknown. In order to numerically code
this, I provided those incidences with a one, indicating that there is one victim. However, the
number of victims could be only one or it could have been a lot more. Moreover, this study is
still relevant, but I do acknowledge that data flaws could be a possibility for the lack of statistical
significance.
Qualitative studies of terrorism are able to elaborate on different aspects of globalization
and aided terrorist, such as the use of the Internet and international banking, possibly better than
quantitative studies. I used the victim country for my counts of globalization. However,
25. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 25
transnational terrorist is transnational, indicating that it is difficult to follow the paths of inter and
intra state activity that may have hindered or aided in an attack. Additionally, this study is over
forty years. There may be a flaw in the research method used. Logistic regression could have
been employed to provide probabilities for there to be victims of terrorism or a terrorist attack
against the amount of globalization. A time-series regression could also have been used to better
understand the changes in globalization and terrorism over time. Nevertheless, I was assuming a
linear relationship between the lethality of terrorism and the level of globalization, which
suggests the use of OLS regression.
Conclusion
Economic globalization, social globalization and overall globalization appear to be poor
indicators of the lethality of terrorism. Geographic region is a strong predictor in the number of
victims of terrorism, with the largest number of victims residing in the Middle East and North
Africa region and Asia Pacific (in comparison to the number of victims of the Oceania region).
Political globalization indicates that as a country becomes more politically globalized, it falls
suspect to more lethality of terrorism, measured by more wounded and killed people from
transnational terrorist attacks.
I conclude with realization that many of my hypotheses were not supported. However, I
am still optimistic that globalization increases the lethality of terrorism (the number of victims of
terrorist attacks). Economic globalization allows for the ease of planning, organizing and
executing terrorist attacks from an international banking system, the Internet, cell phones and
transportation of goods, services and people. Political globalization allows for international
cooperation among nations against terrorism, which creates a clear and consistent message
globally about terrorist. This can aid terrorist because it makes it easier to understand the policy
26. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 26
of one specific country when all countries have similar policies. Also, political globalization
spreads foreign policy from the West to other regions of the world where it may not be as
welcomed, thus fostering motivation for terrorist. Social globalization allows for the sharing of
knowledge and culture, which can in turn be negative for cultures that do not want influence
from other parts of the world. Cultures that are not welcoming of other cultures results in
motivation for cultural shifts from terrorist organizations. This research has exposed the
dimensions of globalization to the lethality of terrorism to conclude that there is still a lot about
transnational terrorism that is not understood nor explained. Regardless of the lethality of
terrorism, future research needs to continue to explore this relationship in efforts to bring more
information and explanation to the internationally phenomena of terrorism.
27. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 27
Appendix A
Study Cases: Number of Victims of Terrorism and Levels of Globalization, 1970-2010
Country Terrorism Economic Political Social Total
*If data was not
available for
1970-2010, years
data available
indicated here
Afghanistan 1611 . 36.24 8.18 19.76
Albania 5 32.67 40.56 29.9 33.71
Algeria 234 41.44 70.25 26.13 43.29
Andorra 0 . 11.78 72.03 .
Angola 638 62.54 38.58 11.6 37.23 *1975-2010
Argentina 765 44.87 85.23 38.27 53
Armenia 0 58.95 33.18 37.12 44.04 *1991-2010
Aruba 0 . 3.78 71.79 43.71
Australia 27 61.5 85.66 74.38 72.65
Austria 115 69.13 91.93 76.99 78.06
Azerbaijan 86 42.19 26.68 37.09 36.22
Bahamas 0 43.74 37.07 63.17 49.24
Bahrain 28 78.93 31.87 55.73 57.91
Bangladesh 38 16.49 54.01 12.11 24.7
Barbados 73 53.83 35.23 49.78 47.44
Belarus 0 41.57 34.64 48.58 42.36 *1991-2010
Belgium 204 87.6 93.74 74.86 84.46
Belize 0 48.31 32.89 42.96 42.27 *1981-2010
Benin 0 27.44 44.98 16.06 27.8
Bermuda 0 . 2.52 56.84 34.41
Bhutan 0 . 17.18 25.51 22.07
Bolivia 35 50.06 56.17 28.72 43.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina 39 52.04 52.18 44.43 49.23 *1992-2010
Botswana 9 64.7 31.58 34.73 44.82
Brazil 47 42.58 77.89 30.11 48.65
Bulgaria 49 51.08 68.62 41.03 51.94
Burkina Faso 0 38.67 42.21 19.76 32.54
Burundi 360 18.62 34.15 16.4 21.87
Cambodia 665 46.7 32.27 16.9 31.79
Cameroon 6 29.73 53.73 23.03 33.53
Canada 69 71.92 90.94 83.79 81.34
Cape Verde 0 42.09 27.62 31.43 34.31 *1975-2010
Central African Republic 104 25.07 40.77 13.33 24.81
Chad 98 27.84 39.79 10.13 24.37
Chile 51 62.51 77.03 41.71 58.56
China 347 33.65 57.58 21.84 35.53
31. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 31
Ukraine 0 49.54 68.96 47.96 54.04 *1991-2010
United Arab Emirates 140 77.54 42.26 61.83 62.41
United Kingdom 3033 72.08 96.03 73.64 78.95
United States 679 57.85 89.59 66.85 69.54
Uruguay 5 53.45 75.98 40.51 54.54
Uzbekistan 3 . 33.91 21.76 26.77 *1991-2010
Vanuatu 0 47.91 26.16 31.91 36.23 *1980-2010
Venezuela 87 44.16 66.65 38.29 47.88
Vietnam 5 43.49 38.33 15.48 31.68
West Bank and Gaza 1 . 7.6 42.8 28.26
Yemen 242 46.65 33.94 18.56 32.83
Zambia 54 54.43 56.03 26.63 44.47
Zimbabwe 278 40.1 56 30.22 40.59 *1980-2010
Sources: Mickolus, E. F.; Sandler, T., Murdock, J. M., & Flemming, P. (2012) International terrorism:
attributes of terrorism events (ITERATE), 1968–2012. Dunn Loring, VA: Vinyard Software.
Dreher, A. (2006) Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new Index of globalization. Applied
Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
32. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 32
Appendix B
Source: Dreher, A. (2006) Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new Index of
globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091-1110.
2013 KOF Globalization Index
Indices and Variables Weights
Economic Globalization [36%]
Actual Flows (50%)
Trade (percent of GDP) (21%)
Foreign Direct Investment, stocks (percent of GDP) (28%)
Portfolio Investment (percent of GDP) (24%)
Income Payments to Foreign Nationals (percent of GDP) (27%)
Restrictions (50%)
Hidden Import Barriers (24%)
Mean Tariff Rate (27%)
Taxes on International Trade (percent of current revenue) (26%)
Capital Account Restrictions (23%)
Social Globalization [37%]
Data on Personal Contact (34%)
Telephone Traffic (25%)
Transfers (percent of GDP) (3%)
International Tourism (26%)
Foreign Population (percent of total population) (21%)
International letters (per capita) (24%)
Data on Information Flows (35%)
Internet Users (per 1000 people) (33%)
Television (per 1000 people) (36%)
Trade in Newspapers (percent of GDP) (31%)
Data on Cultural Proximity (31%)
Number of McDonald's Restaurants (per capita) (45%)
Number of Ikea (per capita) (45%)
Trade in books (percent of GDP) (10%)
Political Globalization [26%]
Embassies in Country (25%)
Membership in International Organizations (28%)
Participation in U.N. Security Council Missions (22%)
International Treaties (26%)
33. Terrorism and Globalization Grifka 33
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