Badger Meter provides a table of contents for an analysis of the company. Key sections include relative valuation comparisons to industry averages, a DCF summary projecting revenues and cash flows through 2013, a Porter's Five Forces analysis of the water meter industry, a SWOT analysis, and discussions of management, recent surveys of water utilities, municipal bond issues, competitors, and various financial statements.
Call Girls in Gomti Nagar - 7388211116 - With room Service
BMI Water Meter Market Share and Financial Analysis
1. Badger Meter, Inc. Marquette University
Appendix
Table of Contents
Relative Valuation 2
DCF Summary 2
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 3
SWOT Analysis 3
Management Discussion 4
Marquette Proprietary Survey, January 2009 5
Marquette Proprietary Survey, February 2009 6
Recent Municipal Happenings 7
Competitors 7
Water Meter Market Share 8
Water Utilities by Percent of total US Water Connections 8
Water AMR Market Share 8
Utility Segment Revenue Computation 8
Financial Statements:
Income Statement 9
Balance Sheet 10
Statement of Cash Flows 11
BMI Price History 12
Spot Copper Price History 12
2. 2
Relative Valuation
BMI 2009E Five Year Industry Average Price Target
Price/Earnings 19.28x 19.63x $23.58
Price/Book 2.93x 3.04x $24.02
Price/Sales 1.43x 1.98x $31.94
EV/EBITDA 9.23x 10.23x $26.57
DCF Summary
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue $279,552 $258,192 $259,283 $306,801 $322,517 $338,610
y/y Change 19.05% -7.64% 0.42% 18.33% 5.12% 4.99%
Operating Profit $40,902 $32,274 $32,410 $41,418 $45,152 $49,099
% Margin 14.63% 12.50% 12.50% 13.50% 14.00% 14.50%
Taxes $14,471 $11,557 $11,905 $15,333 $16,734 $18,214
Net Income $25,084 $19,261 $19,482 $25,556 $27,890 $30,356
Less: W/C Change $10,213 ($11,804) $4,064 $12,918 $2,986 $3,058
Less: CapEx $13,237 $10,328 $10,371 $12,272 $12,901 $13,544
Add: Depreciation/ Amortization $9,042 $9,231 $9,368 $9,755 $10,174 $10,624
Net Cash Flow $10,676 $29,951 $14,775 $10,121 $22,177 $24,378
PV Factor 1.08 1.17 1.27 1.37 1.48
PV Cash Flow $27,689 $12,627 $7,997 $16,199 $16,461
Valuation WACC Calculation
Terminal EBITDA Multiple 7.5x Cost Of Equity:
Projected EBITDA, 2013 $59,722 Risk-Free Rate 4.50%
Terminal Value $447,917 Expected Market Return 10%
Discounted TV $302,457 x Beta 1.10
k: 10.55%
Sum Of PV FCF $80,972 Cost Of Debt:
PV Of Terminal Value $302,457 Expected Future Cost: 6.00%
Net Debt $18,957 Tax Rate: 37.50%
Value Of Equity $364,472 After-Tax Cost of Debt: 3.75%
Shares Outstanding (Ths) 14,808 Cost Of Capital:
Target Price $24.61 Debt 35% 3.75%
Current Price $28.92 Equity 65% 10.55%
Implied Return -14.89% WACC: 8.17%
3. 3
Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Threat of New Entrants:
High
• Regulated by AWWA
• Extremely accurate measurement
technology and strong sealant.
• Capital-intensive manufacturing due
to the quality testing process.
• Oligopoly (4 major manufacturers)
Rivalry: Buyer Power:
Supplier Power:
Moderately Competitive Medium
Low
• •
• Meters are a commodity product Customers are water utilities.
Price-takers in the commodity
markets. • •
Competitive bidding process to win Sales contracts create sticky
• new contracts/maintain expiring buying practices.
Major inputs: copper (80% of a basic
agreements.
meter), lead and plastic • Reluctance to switch meters
•
• Union labor WI facility. • AMR/AMI technology vs
Rivals could undercut price, but
• basic manual-read meters.
historically has not occurred.
Continual transfer of jobs to Nogales,
Mexico facility.
Threat of Substitute Products:
Low
• No alternate way to measure usage.
• Only substitute is to not meter
• Once building is metered, does not
make sense to stop replacement
• Encourages water conservation by
improving consumption-based
billing
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
•Strong reputation for high quality meters and service •Exposure to commodity prices
· Hydraulic flow lab • Low growth, slow adoption market
• Consistent 1st/2nd place water meter market share(20-25%) • Late entrance to the AMI market
• Solid 34% gross margin (5-yr average) • Meter pricing final determinant for utility orders
• Pit Sealant Technology • Low free cash flow conversion
• Proprietary ORION and GALAXY advanced metering systems technology
Opportunities Threats
•Water Shortages - 36 states face shortage in next 5 years •Utility funding
· Decreased operating budgets
•Conversion to AMR/AMI - $5.4B opportunity
· Challenging capital markets fundraising environment
•Unmetered Housing Units (13 million) - $1.95B opportunity
•Completion of ORION deployment - $650M unbooked backlog • Utilities able to length meter replacement cycles
•Replace Remaining Trace Customers - $100M opportunity • Delayed AMR/AMI technology adoption
• Macroeconomic weakness
4. 4
Company Management Review
Key Executives Age Years at BMI
Richard A. Meeusen 54 13
Ronald H. Dix 64 27
Richard E. Johnson 54 8
Mr. Meeusen has served as CEO since 2002. Before coming to Badger Meter, Mr. Meeusen worked in public
accounting, focusing on audit. Mr. Johnson has served as CFO for more than 5 years. He previously served in
an executive role for the Wisconsin Electric Power Company. Mr. Dix has served in his current position since
2003, and is also a member of the board of directors.
There are eight members of the board of directors, each elected to three year terms. Six of the eight directors
are considered independent—insiders are Mr. Meeusen and Mr. Dix. The remaining board members are all
male executives of Milwaukee, WI-based firms, which may lead to shortsightedness in decision-making and
preparing for the future. In June of 2008, the directors adopted a set of Principles of Corporate Governance,
to complement the already existing Code of Conduct. Each director serves on two of the three committees,
except for Mr. Dix and Mr. Meeusen. The board has been recognized by Socrates Corporate Social Ratings
for prudent compensation of executives. Combined, directors and executives hold 7.8% of Badger Meter’s
common stock, including 1.4% held by Meeusen and 1.5% held by Dix.
Through listening to conference calls, attending an investor presentation, and touring BMI’s Brown Deer, WI
facility, we were impressed with management’s knowledge and experience in the water meter industry. Mr.
Johnson and Mr. Meeusen are lifelong friends, which has created a great working relationship but they may
also hesitate to challenge each other. Management is very shareholder-friendly, carefully guarding their
contact with analysts as they believe giving detailed guidance is not in the best interest of long-term
stockholders. Management has also had a disciplined acquisition strategy, designed to prevent overpayment
and create value for shareholders. BMI’s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ®) exceeds that of 79.8% of
Russell 3000 companies.
5. 5
Marquette Proprietary Survey, January 2009
Hello,
I am a Marquette University senior participating in the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Institute Global
Investment Research Challenge. As a part of the Challenge, I am researching Badger Meter and the water
meter industry and would greatly appreciate your response to a few questions below:
Who supplies your water meters?
What is the most influential factor in who supplies your water meters (price, service, quality, location, etc.)?
How do you read your water meters: manually, AMR (drive-by radio), fixed network AMI, or a combination?
If you read them via AMR or AMI, who supplies your radios?
Are you considering switching to reading your meters differently? Which method of reading the meters are
you considering and why?
Are you planning on ordering new water meters in the next year? If so, how are you planning on funding your
water meters (budget, bond offering, etc.)?
Thank you in advance for your response.
Survey Responses
• Varying meter replacement cycles – 15-30
years
How do you fund your purchases of
• AMR payback period – 12 years
water meters?
• Case Study: Springfield, MO
Municipal
∙ Meter purchases Operating Bonds
∙ 2008 – 2,000 meters budget 43%
57%
∙ 2009 – expect 1,000 meters
∙ AMR pilot program budget
∙ 2008 – $100,000
∙ 2009 - $0
∙ 2010/2011 - $15,000
Which other means of reading your
How do you read the majority of
water meters would you consider?
your water meters?
No
50% interest
AMI
40% 32%
54%
30%
20%
10%
0% AMR
14%
Manually AMR AMI
6. 6
Follow-up Survey Question, February 2009
Dear Mr. xxx,
Thank you for your response to the water meter survey I sent out in early January. With your help, Marquette
University has advanced to the America's Region of the CFA Global Investment Research Challenge. We are
grateful for your first response and would greatly appreciate your response to one additional question below:
Since the early January survey, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 has been passed. Do
you anticipate the passing of the act will change your purchases of water meters or meter reading technology
for 2009 and 2010? If so, how do you expect it to change your purchases?
Thank you in advance for your response.
Follow-up Responses
• Additional funding will accelerate the adoption of advanced metering systems according to
∙ Raleigh, NC
∙ San Antonio, TX
∙ Topeka, KS
• Water conservation efforts drive the adoption of advanced metering systems
Do you anticipate the passing of the act will change your purchases of water meters or meter reading
technology for 2009 and 2010?
Yes
19%
No
81%
7. 7
Recent Municipal Happenings – Bloomberg News, March 13, 2009
Legislation
House of Representative lawmakers are drafting legislation to support municipal bond
issuances.
This legislation may include:
o Optional federal backstops or guarantees of new bond issues.
o Issuers buying private bond insurance can pay ―a little extra‖ to get federal backing.
Recent Municipal Turmoil
Municipalities drawing from debt reserve account or unable to pay full interest since March
1st
o 3 government sponsored entities
o 2 counties and 2 cities
Competitors
Water, gas, heat, electric meters (83% revenue)
Sensus Private
AMR/AMI
Industrial Technology Segment of Roper Industries, Inc.
Neptune NYSE: ROP
Water Revenue (16% revenue)
Water, gas, heat, electric meters, AMR technology
Itron NASDAQ: ITRI
AMR radios also sold under contract by Badger Meter, Inc.
Residential/bulk meters
Elster Private
AMR metering systems
AMR technology
Hexagram Private
Industry leader due to long history in utility AMR
8. 8
Water Meter Market Share Water AMR Market Share
Other
HexagramOther
8% Badger
3%
3%
Elster 28% Badger
Master
14% 20%
11%
Elster
5%
Sensus
Itron
Neptune 15%
14%
Sensus
30%
20% Neptune
29%
Water Utilities by Percent of Total U.S. Water Connections
4,800 Smallest
Utilities
20% US 400 Largest
Water Utilities
Connections 40% US
Water
Connections
40% US
Water
Connections
4,000 Medium
Utilities
Utility Segment Revenue Computation
Total Metered Connections 75 million units
BMI Market Share 28%
BMI Metered Connections 21 million units
BMI 2007 Meters Sold 2.1 million units
Utility Segment Revenue $183,750 100%
% of Shipments w/Radios 50%
Water Meters $52,500 28.57% Meter + Radio 1.05 million units
AMR/AMI $131,250 71.43% Price $150
Orion $82,571 44.94% Radio Revenue $157,500
% Utitlity Revenue 86%
Itron $41,286 22.47%
+
Galaxy $9,323 5.07%
% of Meter-Only Shipments 50%
Source: BMI Data/ Team F Estimates (revenue in $000)
Meter Only 1.05 million units
Price $25
Meter Revenue $26,250
% Utility Revenue 14%
2007 Utility Revenue $183,750
% Total Revenue 78.2%
Source: BMI Data/ Team Estimates (revenue in $000)