America's first - climate, mobility and unconventional paths
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Lecture by Professor Maxine Burkett
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America's first - climate, mobility and unconventional paths
- 3. AMERICA’S FIRST CLIMATE, MOBILITY, AND UNCONVENTIONAL PATHWAYS
- 4. ROADMAP • Climate Change and Climate Justice • Climate Displacement, Migration, and Relocation • America’s First • Legal Feedbacks and Pathways
- 5. ROADMAP • Climate Change and Climate Justice • Climate Displacement, Migration, and Relocation • America’s First • Legal Feedbacks and Pathways
- 9. Restoring the Quality of Our Environment Only about one two-thousandth of the atmosphere and one ten-thousandth of the ocean are carbon dioxide. Yet to living creatures, these small fractions are of vital importance … Within a few short centuries, we are returning to the air a significant part of the carbon that was slowly extracted by plants and buried in the sediments during half a billion years.
- 10. Restoring the Quality of Our Environment Through this worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years … The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings. The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore need to be thoroughly explored.
- 11. “The maps of the world will have to be redrawn.” -Sir David King, U.K. Science Advisor, in regard to what is happening in Greenland
- 13. 13
- 21. Photo courtesy Peter Essick/National Geographic Society
- 22. 22
- 23. The Maldives ❖October 17, 2009 © 2009 AP Photo/Mohammed Seeneen
- 24. 24 “…we have effectively entered a ‘no-analogue’ state.” -Richard Zeebe, Professor, Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaiʻi
- 25. ROADMAP • Climate Change and Climate Justice • Climate Displacement, Migration, and Relocation • America’s First • Legal Feedbacks and Pathways
- 26. POPULATION DISPLACED BY SEA LEVEL RISE Sea Level Rise (meters) Population(millions) Source: Rowley et al. EOS 88(9), 2007 400 300 200 100 1 2 3 4 5 6
- 27. 28
- 28. 0 1980 Worldwide Extreme Weather Catastrophes 1980 – 2015 NumberofEvents Extreme temperatures, droughts, fires Floods, mudslides Storms
- 31. “REFUGEE” ART. 1.A.2 OF THE 1951 CONVENTION RELATING TO THE STATUS OF REFUGEES • Applies to any person who • “owing to well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.”
- 32. FIVE SCENARIOS • Sudden-Onset Disasters • Slow-Onset Environmental Degradation • Destruction of Small Island States • Designated Prohibited Areas (for Human Habitation) • Unrest, Violence, and Conflict over Resources
- 33. DISPLACEMENT CATEGORIES • Temporary displacement • Permanent local displacement • Permanent internal displacement • Permanent regional displacement • Permanent intercontinental displacement
- 34. SEVERAL SPHERES OF GOVERNANCE AND RELATED INSTITUTIONS International • International development law • Human rights and humanitarian law • Refugee Law Domestic • Property law • Immigration law • National security law • Environmental law Hybrid • Migration and asylum law • Indigenous rights • Climate Law
- 35. ROADMAP • Climate Change and Climate Justice • Climate Displacement, Migration, and Relocation • America’s First • Legal Feedbacks and Pathways
- 40. 50
- 41. 51
- 43. 53
- 44. Photo: NOAA Hurricane Katrina August 29, 2005
- 45. Source: Getty Images/David Portnoy
- 46. Hurricane SandyOctober 29, 2012
- 47. Hurricane Sandy Breezy Point, Queens NY October 31, 2012
- 48. Food Security and Migration
- 51. ROADMAP • Climate Change and Climate Justice • Climate Displacement, Migration, and Relocation • America’s First • Legal Feedbacks and Pathways
- 52. “Legal definitions bind States in ways that descriptive labels cannot.” -Prof. Jane McAdam Environmental Migration Governance, University of New South Wales Faculty of Law Research Series 2009
- 53. The Problem of Legal Feedback Mechanisms -Prof. David Caron, When Law Makes Climate Change Worse: Rethinking the Law of Baselines in Light of a Rising Sea Level, 1 ECOLOGY L. Q. 621 (1990)
- 54. “Legal feedbacks will not alter the amount of climate change, but will aggravate the suffering that will accompany such change. The greater the change, the greater the aggravation.” -Prof. David Caron, When Law Makes Climate Change Worse: Rethinking the Law of Baselines in Light of a Rising Sea Level, 1 ECOLOGY L. Q. 621 (1990)
- 55. OUTSTANDING LEGAL & POLICY ISSUES INTERNATIONAL • Governing Legal Instrument • Role of UNFCCC • Patchwork of Existing Human Rights Laws/Norms • Guiding Principles for Internally Displaced • Distinguishing Forced and Voluntary Movements • Resettlement Rights • Status Rights • Statelessness and Atoll Nations
- 56. 66
- 57. 67 “Also requests the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechan
- 58. 69
- 59. OUTSTANDING LEGAL & POLICY ISSUES DOMESTIC • Governance • Lack of governing agency with a mandate or funding for relocation • No institutional framework to determine the relocation is necessary (triggers & reactive response) • Civil and Human Rights Determinations • Cross-Sector, Government, Department Coordination • Funding - CBA and Matching Requirements
- 60. 71
- 65. Maxine Burkett Professor of Law Wilson Center Global Fellow burkettm@hawaii.edu Thank You
- 66. Miami, Florida
- 67. $129 Billion Worth Of New York City Real Estate Now Lies In Flood Zones
Editor's Notes
- Spider-web-cocoon-image An unexpected side effect of the 2010 flooding in parts of Sindh, Pakistan, was that millions of spiders climbed up into the trees to escape the rising flood waters; because of the scale of the flooding and the fact that the water took so long to recede, many trees became cocooned in spiderwebs. People in the area had never seen this phenomenon before, but they also reported that there were fewer mosquitoes than they would have expected, given the amount of standing water that was left. Not being bitten by mosquitoes was one small blessing for people that had lost everything in the floods.
- http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article119396843.html Last month’s king tide carried an octopus into a parking garage in Miami Beach. Workers put it back in the ocean. Richard Conlin /Facebook Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/op-ed/article119396843.html#storylink=cpy
- cited in -Dana Nucitelli, “Scientists warned the US president about global warming 50 years ago today,” The Guardian (11/5/2015)
- DESCRIPTION: Text slide TALKING POINTS: If we lose either the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets, global sea level would go up about 20 ft (6 m) over the next century. We would have to radically revise our world maps nearly every year. In fact, a certain amount of sea level rise and disappearing coastlines is inevitable, even if we were to cut carbon emissions to zero today.
- The distribution of land between the hemispheres can explain the atmospheric fluctuation.
- http://www.worldmapsonline.com/images/murals/mercator_world_political_white_ocean_wall_mural_lg.jpg
- Emissions on a per capita basis bring contributions to climate change down to an individual level. Looking at this metric, the order of our top 10 emitters changes considerably. Among the top 10 absolute emitters, only two have per capita emissions that are below the world average. Canada, the United States, and Russia emit more than double the global average per person. On the other end of the spectrum, India’s per capita emissions are only one-third of the global average. 6 Graphs Explain the World’s Top 10 Emitters by Mengpin Ge, Johannes Friedrich and Thomas Damassa - November 25, 2014 http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world’s-top-10-emitters
- http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/29/marshall_islands_social_2.jpg
- The Maldives . . ***** Male, Maldives (Nation whose maximum elevation is 8 feet and is seriously threatened by sea-level rising)
- DESCRIPTION: Photo of the Maldives’ Cabinet holding an underwater meeting TALKING POINTS: In 2009, the Maldives’ Cabinet held an underwater meeting to highlight the threat that global warming poses to their country. The Cabinet members signed a document calling on all countries to cut down their emissions before the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen at the end of the year. Image source: AP Photo/Mohammed Seeneen
- Zeebe, et al. describing the rate of carbon release during the PETM as much smaller than the current input of carbon to the atmosphere from human activities. PETM - Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
- Migration and global environmental change Richard Black, Neil Adger, Nigel W. Arnell, Stefan Dercon, Andrew Geddes doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.005 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378011001580
- ID #3661 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. The insurance industry has measured what’s going on, because that’s what they do. Reinsurance companies are the most concerned. They are warning us. DESCRIPTION: Graph of worldwide extreme weather catastrophes, 1980-2015 ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: In 2015 alone, more than 1,000 natural catastrophes were recorded. The overall losses totaled USD $90 billion, of which roughly $27 billion was insured.* REFERENCES: * Insurance Information Institute, “Catastrophes: Global,” last accessed September, 2016. http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/catastrophes-global
- The International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) earlier this week released some figures regarding people displaced by natural disasters in 2012. According to the report, in 2012, 32.4 million people around the globe were forced to flee their homes as a result of a natural disaster such as an earthquake, flood or storm. Not unusually, the worst affected areas of the world were Asia and Africa, especially west and central Africa. Figures for displacement in Africa have risen steeply in 2012, where 8.2 million people had to leave their homes. This is over 4 times higher than in previous years. Between 2007 and 2012, over 80% of the world’s displaced have been in Asia. Of the 1.3 million people displaced from western countries, the worst hit was the USA, most likely as a result of Hurricane Sandy, where 775,000 were displaced. Hurricane Sandy forced third-most people from homes worldwide in 2012 By Zack Colman - 05/13/13 11:44 AM ET Climate change and extreme weather disasters were the main drivers of human displacement worldwide last year, with Hurricane Sandy accounting for most of the forced migration in the United States, according to a report released Monday. The devastating East Coast storm affected 24 states, forcing 776,000 people out of their homes, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre said in its report. Wildfires in the West and Hurricane Isaac also contributed to displacement, the report noted. “The USA was among the ten countries worldwide with the highest displacement levels in 2012. Months before Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Isaac displaced 60,000 people in August. … Widespread forest fires forced over 39,000 people to evacuate their homes,” the report said. Sandy amounted to the world’s third largest displacement event last year, according to the report. It followed on the heels of a massive flood in northeast India and flood and typhoon incidents in China. In all, Sandy cost an estimated $71 billion of damage in the United States, the report noted. Thousands still have not returned home, with the state of New Jersey estimating 39,000 families remain displaced. The report said climate- and weather-related incidents accounted for 98 percent of global displacement from disasters last year. Climate scientists have avoided connecting individual extreme weather events to climate change, instead arguing that its effects — such as warmer waters and higher sea levels — intensify storms. Still, Democrats and President Obama have invoked Hurricane Sandy, wildfires and widespread drought in calls to address climate change. Legislation is unlikely amid a Republican-controlled House and a Senate timid on climate issues. That prompted Obama to say in his February State of the Union speech that he would go it alone on climate through executive action if necessary.
- https://environmentalmigration.iom.int/maps Regional Maps on Migration, Environment and Climate Change The increase in global average air and sea temperatures, the prevalent melting of snow and ice, the intensification and high variability of extreme weather events, the acidification of the oceans, and the rising average global sea levels all bear witness to climate change. Climate change affects all regions of the world, but its regional and local impacts are uneven, and hard to predict accurately. The local effects and vulnerability of populations will depend greatly on local exposure, development and adaptive capacity, future demographic and economic changes, as well as on mitigation and adaptation policies that will or will not be undertaken in the coming years. The following maps illustrate some of the most prominent regional changes that are already taking place around the globe and their impacts on humans and ecosystems. The observed and emerging patterns of the changing climate already affect human mobility across the globe through slow-onset processes of environmental and ecosystem change, and through sudden-onset extreme weather events, exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities. Voluntary or forced environmental migration is likely to rise due to the effects of climatic changes such as increased water stress, greater food insecurity, and accelerating risks related to health and human security. These regional maps show the key climatic risks and impacts (increased or decreased precipitation, increased monsoon precipitation extremes, increasing frequency of cyclones, desertification, increased frequency of wildfires, melting of glaciers and permafrost, coral bleaching); the main consequences (depletion of fisheries and biodiversity loss, negative agricultural changes, reduced water availability, and changes in ecosystems, including in mountain regions); as well as related social challenges (vulnerable indigenous populations, major cities, and densely populated areas affected by sea-level rise and other hazards). The maps also identify climate change “hotspots” - areas which experience a combination of several extreme climatic risks, and which are expected to be affected particularly severely. These maps are funded by the European Union and created under the Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) project, in collaboration with IOM - Sciences Po project on the Atlas of Environmental Migration. Some of the maps will be featured in the forthcoming publication (Presses de Sciences Po/Routledge). The densely populated cities of large mega-deltas on the Asian coastline face high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surges and river flooding. As coastal cities expand through accelerating urbanization, many of the most vulnerable people settle in hazard-prone areas on the margins of cities, and become increasingly exposed to disasters. Climate change threatens urban and rural livelihoods and settlements through increased river and sea flooding, which damages infrastructure, and saltwater intrusion into low-lying cropland causing considerable damage to crops. In addition to food and water security, floods and droughts constitute health risks as illness and death from waterborne diseases, heat stress and malnutrition due to droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia. Pacific small island states face inundation of low-lying territories due to sea-level rise and fresh water scarcity due to reduction in rainfall, inevitably leading to the need for resettlement. Asia and the Pacific is already the world's most natural disaster-prone area, and climate change is anticipated to accelerate the frequency and intensity of such weather-related extreme events. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), China, India and the Philippines accounted for the majority of the people displaced by disasters worldwide between 2008 and 2014.
- ID #3701 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. Even the US Defense Department has been saying that the climate crisis would cause a refugee crisis. They have also warned us about pandemic diseases, and food and water shortages. DESCRIPTION: Quote from the US Department of Defense’s 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, publicly released October 13, 2014 ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: In October 2014, the US Department of Defense publicly released a groundbreaking report declaring, “climate change will affect the Department of Defense's ability to defend the Nation and poses immediate risks to U.S. national security.” They pointed out that rising global temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, climbing sea levels, and more extreme weather events will intensify the challenges of global instability, hunger, poverty, and conflict (among other impacts).* Lastly, then-Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel noted, “politics or ideology must not get in the way of sound planning.”** REFERENCES: * US Department of Defense, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap (October 2014). http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/220577-read-dod-report-2014-climate-change-adaptation-roadmap ** Secretary Chuck Hagel, “The Department of Defense Must Plan for the National Security Implications of Climate Change,” The White House, October 13, 2014. https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/10/13/defense-department-must-plan-national-security-implications-climate-change
- ID #3700 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. The record drought between 2006 and 2010 destroyed 60 percent of all farms and 80 percent of all livestock and drove 1.5 million people into cities, where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees from the Iraq War. DESCRIPTION: Text slide about the extent of the 2006-2010 Syrian drought and the heavy loss of fertile land and the refugees it created ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: Many observers of world events are considering climate change as a driver of conflict. For example, although many factors likely contributed to the beginning of Syria’s ongoing civil war, many analysts have begun to look at the role drought may have played in creating social unrest. Four years of drought between 2006-2010 turned almost 60 percent of Syria into a desert and killed about 80 percent of its cattle by 2009. As the water shortage and drought drove up unemployment, hundreds of thousands of farmers went to the cities to find work, where they were given a less-than-warm welcome by the government.* REFERENCES: * NPR Staff, “How Could A Drought Spark A Civil War?,” National Public Radio, September 8, 2013. http://www.npr.org/2013/09/08/220438728/how-could-a-drought-spark-a-civil-war
- ID #2057 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. The WikiLeaks site published memos and it shows that Syria knew there would be consequences and they wouldn’t be able to deal with it and that there was going to be a social explosion. There were many other factors, the dictator, the terrorists, Iraq and more, but… DESCRIPTION: Quote from the U.S. Embassy in Damascus to the State Department, November 2008 ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: The New York Times journalist, Thomas Friedman, produced a column in 2014 about the above WikiLeaks cable that foreshadowed how environmental stresses could fuel an uprising in Syria.* “Syria’s government couldn’t respond to a prolonged drought when there was a Syrian government,“ he notes. “So imagine what could happen if Syria is faced by another drought after much of its infrastructure has been ravaged by civil war.”* REFERENCES: * Thomas L. Friedman, “Wikileaks, Drought and Syria,” The New York Times, January 21, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/22/opinion/friedman-wikileaks-drought-and-syria.html
- ID #3770.B - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. …this drought in the eastern Mediterranean is the worst in that region for 900 years, unprecedented as far as we know. DESCRIPTION: Text slide about the ongoing drought in the eastern Mediterranean region ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: A NASA study indicates that the drought that began in 1998 and has impacted several countries in the eastern Mediterranean region is likely the worst of at least the past 900 years. Researchers used tree rings and historical documents to reconstruct the climate for years before which detailed weather records were kept.* REFERENCES: * Ellen Gray, “Drought in the eastern Mediterranean worst of past 900 years,” NASA, March 1, 2016. http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2408/
- ID #4019 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. In other parts of the world, we are seeing temperatures records broken all over. High temperatures have an impact, harsher in some areas than others. Just a few weeks ago in this city in Iraq the temp reached 129 degrees, an all-time record. Next door, one day earlier, in Kuwait, it reached 129.2 degrees. DESCRIPTION: Map and text describing the extremely hot temperatures recorded in Basara, Iraq, and Mitribah, Kuwait in July, 2016. ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates back to 1880. Additionally, five of the first six months set records for the smallest monthly Arctic sea ice extent since consistent satellite records began in 1979.* REFERENCES: * National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), “Record-Breaking Climate Trends Briefing – July 19, 2016,” Goddard Space Flight Center, July 19, 2016. http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12305
- ID #3825 - May not be modified or used in presentations that are recorded, streamed, or broadcast. This is not an isolated event here in Texas. This family made it to safety by using their fridge as a raft. DESCRIPTION: Photo of local residents using a refrigerator to evacuate a flooded apartment complex in Houston, Texas, United States, April 18, 2016 ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: In April 2016, torrential rain in Houston, Texas fell at a rate up to 38 centimeters (15 inches) in 24 hours, mostly during a brief 10-hour period, and at its peak 6.1 centimeters (2.4 inches) in one hour.* REFERENCES: * John D. Harden, “Breaking down Houston’s recent flooding events,” Houston Chronicle, April 27, 2016. http://www.houstonchronicle.com/local/article/How-floods-compare-7330750.php
- Five Scenarios that can trigger climate change and population movements Walter Kälin and Nina Schrepfer
- From Dr. Stephen Schneider
- Figure 3 | Cumulative projected populations at risk of SLR under the 0.9 m scenario by 2100 for US counties. Counties not included in the study are coloured in grey http://www.stmarysga.gov/Millions%20projected%20to%20be%20at%20risk%20from%20sea-level%20rise%20in%20the%20conteinental%20United%20States.pdf
- The most damaging storm in U.S. history made landfall on August 29, 2005 . . . And we all know what ensued. . . ***** http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/
- We also became aware of uneven risks – the impacts of GW will be felt more acutely by the poor and people of color, this is true both here and abroad Katrina tells the story of poor coastal communities, as does the tale of the Native Alaskans tells the story of the arctic villages at are literally melting into the seas . . .
- ID #1300 - May not be modified or used in presentations that are recorded, streamed, or broadcast. This caused huge destruction… DESCRIPTION: Satellite image of Hurricane Sandy before it made landfall in the northeastern United States, October 29, 2012 ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: Hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on October 29, 2012. When the storm made landfall, it was over 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) in diameter and set the record for lowest pressure recorded north of the state of North Carolina.* REFERENCES: * Jeff Masters, “Sandy by the numbers: trying to comprehend a stunning disaster,” Weather Underground, November 1, 2012. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2284
- http://assets.nydailynews.com/phttp://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1196585.1352074268!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/gallery_635/hurricane-sandy-destroys-breezy-point-queens.jpgolopoly_fs/1.1196585.1352074268!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/gallery_635/hurricane-sandy-destroys-breezy-point-queens.jpg
- (middle 3 from Kälin and Schrepfer) - treated differently in int’l law - rights related to admittance and stay on foreign territory status rights - legal situation and rights of persons on foreign territory International HR non-refoulement right to seek and enjoy asylum conventional the rights of migrant workers
- (middle 3 from Kälin and Schrepfer) - treated differently in int’l law - rights related to admittance and stay on foreign territory status rights - legal situation and rights of persons on foreign territory International HR non-refoulement right to seek and enjoy asylum conventional the rights of migrant workers
- If we’re not pushing the changed lightbulb or the technological revolution in the Global North, we often appreciate the complexity of the challenge and fail to
- ID #3480 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. Miami is low lying, as you can see. DESCRIPTION: Photo of the Miami skyline
- ID #2903 - Can be used in noncommercial online and TV broadcasts of your presentation, but not modified. New York is highly vulnerable, almost $130 billion of real estate at risk in New York City. DESCRIPTION: Photo showing New York City and the waterways that surround it ADDITIONAL TALKING POINTS: One study found that more than $129 billion in 84,000 New York City buildings are in at-risk flooding areas. This includes 60,000 new structures, not identified as “at-risk” in the 2010 FEMA flood maps. This figure doesn’t account for future changes in floodplains and the number of additional buildings that could be at risk due to sea level rise.* REFERENCES: * Laura Dattaro, “$129 Billion Worth of New York City Real Estate Now Lies in Flood Zones,” Business Insider, October 31, 2014. http://www.businessinsider.com/129-billion-worth-of-new-york-city-real-estate-now-lies-in-flood-zones-2014-10?utm_content=buffer03926&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer