Christos Ellinas - An Engineer Imagines. Again

1. ce12183@bristol.ac.uk An Engineer imagines. Again “[For] an intellect [who] would know all forces and all positions of all items; nothing would be uncertain” Pierre Simon Laplace, 1816 By Christos Ellinas

2. Science of the Crystal Ball No Science Science More Science Everything is controlled by the Gods. Thus, we can predict nothing Everything is controlled by deterministic laws. Thus, we can predict everything It depends – usually not and thus, we assume our way out R i s k BC 19th ? ? ? M a n a g e m e n t 1960 21st

3. Three flavours of Engineering Transistor PC Internet A designed system to a simple problem A designed system to a complicated problem An evolving system to an everchanging complex problem Few variables Thousands of variables Some variables Reductionism – connections are irrelevant Statistical approaches – random connections and Central Limit Theorem Complexity Science – connections are not random; thus they are important Risk mitigation via prediction Risk mitigation via added redundancies Risk mitigation via limiting exposure and increasing adaptation

4. “Networks are present everywhere. All we need is an eye for them” – Albert-László Barabási, 2003 21st Century Systems • Scientist have revealed common organisation principles in systems that we design – how have we responded ? • Risk management focuses on identification, prediction, asse ssment, record and respond. • Alas, low-probability high-impact events will resonate longer and harder due to coupling. “Outliers” have become crucial. Supply Chains Construction Projects We want more with less. • Power grid • What do we do when what matters cannot be identified nor predicted ? Social Networks Transportation Economy Internet

5. ce12183@bristol.ac.uk Thank you Engineering design has been traditionally driven by understanding failure. Recent events have further highlighted the need to do so. Lets not let a good crisis go to waste

Editor's Notes

My name is Christos Ellinas and today I want to talk to you about the failing of predictability and risk management in the context of engineering
All actions are effects of the gods, thus we can predict nothing and thus, no risk managementWe live in a clockwork universe in which we can predict everything and thus, we can mitigate against everything. This is the domain of traditional risk management where one can identify, assess and mitigate against everything that mattersActually, we can predict almost nothing – non-linear systems are not the exception but rather the rule. However, the paradigm of risk management has yet remained unchanged
Let me illustrate this by an example:a simple system for a simple problem. Completely predictable and thus we, no need for risk managementif we start connecting them together, we get a complicated system which can deal with complicated problems. Due to the immense number of variables we cannot predict everything but we can aggregate results and get meaningful predictions. Due to our ability to aggregate, we can perform risk management by simply introducing redundanciesBut what happens if we start connecting complicated systems ? (an act of our time as we strive for increased functionality with reduced resource expenditure)The results is a complex system for an evolving problem – this is where the traditional paradigm of risk management fails as connections become important. These are the system that we want, and are, designing but do not yet understand. We try to enforce a top-down design by designing their components but we seem to not understand that the whole is different than the sum of its parts.
Typical 21s century systems of which our society if based upon. Typically, these are systems that we do not know how to design and examples of monumental failures are becoming more and more frequentScientist are beginning to uncover universal characteristics using between a variety of apparently different systems. But these are systems that we design – what have we learnt ????Broken paradigm of risk management – the latter is build on identification and prediction but what happens when what influences these system we cannot identify nor predict?
Engineering design is traditionally driven by failure – we are experiencing a continuous flux of design failure and risks materialising in all kinds of systems and its time for a paradigm change. Scientists are moving towards a more unified and multidisciplinary direction and as engineer, so do we.

Christos Ellinas - An Engineer Imagines. Again

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Christos Ellinas - An Engineer Imagines. Again

Editor's Notes