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I Believe in Miracles
How Technology will Save our Planet



                                                              Media Presentation
                                                       Mark John Fiddes Shipston
                                      Social Impact of Technology – GNED1022 - 33
                                                                 Inst. Emily Brett
                                                       Thursday, August 9th, 2012
I Believe in Miracles
How Technology will Save our Planet

 • Abominable Asteroids   • Perilous Pandemic




 • Villainous Volcanoes   • Ultimate Unknown




                                                  "The Blue Marble”
                                                photograph of Earth, taken from
                                                          Apollo 17
Abominable Asteroids

• What is the Risk?
    The question is not if but when!
    NASA estimates that they have found 20-
     30% of the ~4,700 PHAs (Potentially
     Hazardous Asteroids) in near Earth
     orbits
    Effects range from Incidental Damage to
     Global Extinctions
    Most famous example was the Dinosaur
     extinction at the end of the Cretaceous
     period
    Tunguska event in Russia was ~1,000
     times the destructive power of Hiroshima
Abominable Asteroids
• What is being done?
    The skies are being watched by
       • The Near Earth Asteroid Tracking Team
       • SpaceWatch
       • The Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazard
         Group

    Numerous fly-bys including
     the NEAR Shoemaker
     landing on asteroid Eros
    Preliminary designs for
     Solar Sail pushing asteroids
     off collision course
    Preliminary designs for
     “Tractor Beam” technology to
     tow asteroids off collision course

• Downside
    Low likelihood of event within near future
     so the return on investment is unclear
Villainous Volcanoes




                                                                        Volcano               Year Deaths Major cause of deaths
                                                                Tambora, Indonesia            1815   92,000   Starvation
                                                                Krakatau, Indonesia           1883   36,417   Tsunami
                                                                Mount Pelee, Martinique       1902   29,025   Ash flows
                                                                Ruiz, Colombia                1985   25,000   Mudflows
                                                                Unzen, Japan                  1792   14,300   Volcano collapse, tsunami
                                                                Laki, Iceland                 1783    9,350   Starvation
                                                                Kelut, Indonesia              1919    5,110   Mudflows
                                                                Galunggung, Indonesia         1882    4,011   Mudflows
• What are the Risks?                                           Vesuvius, Italy               1631    3,500   Mudflows, lava flows
                                                                Vesuvius, Italy                79     3,360   Ash flows, falls
                                                                Papandayan, Indonesia         1772    2,957   Ash flows
    Again, the question is not if but when!                    Lamington, Papua New Guinea   1951    2,942   Ash flows
                                                                El Chichon, Mexico            1982    2,000   Ash flows
    One in twelve people live within striking distance of an   Soufriere, St. Vincent
                                                                Oshima, Japan
                                                                                              1902
                                                                                              1741
                                                                                                      1,680
                                                                                                      1,475
                                                                                                              Ash flows
                                                                                                              Tsunami
     active volcano                                             Asama, Japan                  1783    1,377   Ash flows, mudflows
                                                                Taal, Philippines             1911    1,335   Ash flows
                                                                Mayon, Philippines            1814    1,200   Mudflows
    Property Damage, Death, Global Climate Change              Agung, Indonesia              1963    1,184   Ash flows
                                                                Cotopaxi, Ecuador             1877    1,000   Mudflows
                                                                Pinatubo, Philippines         1991      800   Disease
                                                                Komagatake, Japan             1640      700   Tsunami
                                                                Ruiz, Colombia                1845      700   Mudflows
Villainous Volcanoes
• What is being done?
    Remote Data gathering from satellites and
     robots are increasing the accuracy of the
     information and safety of the scientists
    Increases in Computational speed are
     making predictive models more accurate
     and more timely
    Technologies include
       • Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar
       • Seismic and geodetic measurements
       • High-resolution Digital Elevation Models
       • Imaging Spectroscopy

• Downside
    Despite historical evidence and scientific
     research, societies will not relocate and the
     usefulness of predictions is restricted
Perilous Pandemic
• What are the Risks?
    You know what is coming, not if
     but when!
    Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918
     killed between 15 and 100
     million people
    Viruses are constantly mutating
     due to solar radiation and
     random re-sequencing which
     nullifies our immune systems
     efforts to protect us
    Increasing urbanization and
     high-speed global transportation
     provide multiple vectors of
     infection
• What is being done?
                                            Perilous Pandemic
    Genetic research is revealing ways
     to tailor make vaccines to suit an outbreak
    New DNA vaccines
       • Abandon the weakened
         pathogen model
       • Delivering the genes
         (or proteins) that are used
         by the body to recognize the
         invading virus.
       • Encourages the body to
         manufacture antigens rapidly
         and with little risk of reaction

    Advanced diagnostic techniques
     can isolate cases before a
     widespread outbreak

• Downside
    Genetic research is cited by many
     conservatives as high risk research - escaping
     pathogens and moral issues
Ultimate Unknown


• What are the Risks?
    The point is we don’t know…
     anything could happen
    If there are extraterrestrial
     beings and we meet them how
     can we prepare
    Space borne disease could take
     any form and have any imagined
     consequence
    What happens when our sun
     dies
Ultimate Unknown
• What is being done?
    New generations of computers are allowing us to
     investigate and perhaps begin to understand the
     large and small scale structure of the universe
    The internet, social media, and spreading access
     to data germinates ideas at an ever-increasing
     rate

• Downside
    Our knowledge is starting to penetrate mysteries
     of the universe that have always been the
     purview of religious authorities.
    Most of the research and technological
     development to prepare for an unknown future
     is in areas where there are no immediate results
     to validate the expense
Conclusion

Whether our race, the planet, or our whole solar system will someday face
 annihilation, there is no other defence than the development and use of new
 technologies. Technology and the knowledge and curiosity that drives its
 development are the keys to our future

                                                               References
Baalke, R. (n.d.). The Probability of Collisions with Earth. Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology. Retrieved from
  http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/back2.html.

Blong, R. J. (1984). Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook on the effects of eruptions. Sydney: Academic Press.

Chandra, S., Kuljanin, G., & Wray, J. (2012). Mortality From the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919: The Case of India. Demography, 49(3), 857-
  865. doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0116-x.

Coffey, J. (2010). Arenal volcano at night [Photograph] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.universetoday.com/59287/costa-rico-volcano/.

Corpses. (1918) [Image]. Retrieved from http://dickinson-enb150.blogspot.ca/ 2011/05/spanish-flu-1918.html.

Cowen, R. (2000). History of Life. (3rd ed.). Boston: Blackwell Science.

Cowen, R. (2004). EXTINCTION. Retrieved from http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/education/events/cowen1a.html.
References - continued
Crew, Apollo 17. (1972).The Blue Marble. [Photograph] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=55418.

Durda, D. (2010). How to Deflect a Hazardous Asteroid. Sky & Telescope, 120(6), 22-28.

Eye. (1982). [Image] Retrieved from http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/08/ridley-scott-will-direct-new-blade.html.

Furniss, C. (2007). One Less Thing to Worry About: Volcanoes. Esquire, 148(4), 183.

McNutt, S.R. (1996). Seismic Monitoring and Eruption Forecasting of Volcanoes: A Review of the State of the Art and Case Histories. Scarpa
  and Tilling, eds., Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 99-146. Retreived from
  http://www.giseis.alaska.edu/input/ steve/PUBS/mcnutt-1996-scarpa.PDF.

Morrison, D. (2004). FAQs About NEO Impacts. Nasa Ames Research Center. Retrieved from http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro_faq.cfm.

Nasa. (2005). Impact on Asteroid [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.universetoday.com/16066/bad-idea-blowing-up-asteroids-
  with-nuclear-missiles/.

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab. (2012). Asteroid and Craft [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from
  http://www.space.com/14370-asteroid-shield-earth-threat-protection-meeting.html.

NASA/JPL-Caltech. (2012). PHAs in Near Earth Orbit [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.space.com/15734-dangerous-asteroid-
  census-nasa-telescope.html.

Stivers, M. (2009) [Cartoon]. Avoid the Plague. Retrieved from http://www.markstivers.com/wordpress/comics/2009-10-10-Avoid-the-
   plague.gif

Telescope, Land Based. (2010). [Image] [Modified]. Big Vision. The Hindu. Retrieved from http://www.thehindu.com/news/article487509.ece.

Undersea Marine Robot. (n.d.) [Image]. Retrieved from http://www.dailygalaxy.com /my_weblog/2008/05/robots-help-exp.html.

Virus Cartoon. (2009). [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://amog.com/ health/pandemic-flu-viruses-formidable-adversary/.

Volti, R. (2010). Society and technological change. (6th ed.). New York: Worth Publishers.

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I Believe in Miracles

  • 1. I Believe in Miracles How Technology will Save our Planet Media Presentation Mark John Fiddes Shipston Social Impact of Technology – GNED1022 - 33 Inst. Emily Brett Thursday, August 9th, 2012
  • 2. I Believe in Miracles How Technology will Save our Planet • Abominable Asteroids • Perilous Pandemic • Villainous Volcanoes • Ultimate Unknown "The Blue Marble” photograph of Earth, taken from Apollo 17
  • 3. Abominable Asteroids • What is the Risk?  The question is not if but when!  NASA estimates that they have found 20- 30% of the ~4,700 PHAs (Potentially Hazardous Asteroids) in near Earth orbits  Effects range from Incidental Damage to Global Extinctions  Most famous example was the Dinosaur extinction at the end of the Cretaceous period  Tunguska event in Russia was ~1,000 times the destructive power of Hiroshima
  • 4. Abominable Asteroids • What is being done?  The skies are being watched by • The Near Earth Asteroid Tracking Team • SpaceWatch • The Asteroid and Comet Impact Hazard Group  Numerous fly-bys including the NEAR Shoemaker landing on asteroid Eros  Preliminary designs for Solar Sail pushing asteroids off collision course  Preliminary designs for “Tractor Beam” technology to tow asteroids off collision course • Downside  Low likelihood of event within near future so the return on investment is unclear
  • 5. Villainous Volcanoes Volcano Year Deaths Major cause of deaths Tambora, Indonesia 1815 92,000 Starvation Krakatau, Indonesia 1883 36,417 Tsunami Mount Pelee, Martinique 1902 29,025 Ash flows Ruiz, Colombia 1985 25,000 Mudflows Unzen, Japan 1792 14,300 Volcano collapse, tsunami Laki, Iceland 1783 9,350 Starvation Kelut, Indonesia 1919 5,110 Mudflows Galunggung, Indonesia 1882 4,011 Mudflows • What are the Risks? Vesuvius, Italy 1631 3,500 Mudflows, lava flows Vesuvius, Italy 79 3,360 Ash flows, falls Papandayan, Indonesia 1772 2,957 Ash flows  Again, the question is not if but when! Lamington, Papua New Guinea 1951 2,942 Ash flows El Chichon, Mexico 1982 2,000 Ash flows  One in twelve people live within striking distance of an Soufriere, St. Vincent Oshima, Japan 1902 1741 1,680 1,475 Ash flows Tsunami active volcano Asama, Japan 1783 1,377 Ash flows, mudflows Taal, Philippines 1911 1,335 Ash flows Mayon, Philippines 1814 1,200 Mudflows  Property Damage, Death, Global Climate Change Agung, Indonesia 1963 1,184 Ash flows Cotopaxi, Ecuador 1877 1,000 Mudflows Pinatubo, Philippines 1991 800 Disease Komagatake, Japan 1640 700 Tsunami Ruiz, Colombia 1845 700 Mudflows
  • 6. Villainous Volcanoes • What is being done?  Remote Data gathering from satellites and robots are increasing the accuracy of the information and safety of the scientists  Increases in Computational speed are making predictive models more accurate and more timely  Technologies include • Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar • Seismic and geodetic measurements • High-resolution Digital Elevation Models • Imaging Spectroscopy • Downside  Despite historical evidence and scientific research, societies will not relocate and the usefulness of predictions is restricted
  • 7. Perilous Pandemic • What are the Risks?  You know what is coming, not if but when!  Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed between 15 and 100 million people  Viruses are constantly mutating due to solar radiation and random re-sequencing which nullifies our immune systems efforts to protect us  Increasing urbanization and high-speed global transportation provide multiple vectors of infection
  • 8. • What is being done? Perilous Pandemic  Genetic research is revealing ways to tailor make vaccines to suit an outbreak  New DNA vaccines • Abandon the weakened pathogen model • Delivering the genes (or proteins) that are used by the body to recognize the invading virus. • Encourages the body to manufacture antigens rapidly and with little risk of reaction  Advanced diagnostic techniques can isolate cases before a widespread outbreak • Downside  Genetic research is cited by many conservatives as high risk research - escaping pathogens and moral issues
  • 9. Ultimate Unknown • What are the Risks?  The point is we don’t know… anything could happen  If there are extraterrestrial beings and we meet them how can we prepare  Space borne disease could take any form and have any imagined consequence  What happens when our sun dies
  • 10. Ultimate Unknown • What is being done?  New generations of computers are allowing us to investigate and perhaps begin to understand the large and small scale structure of the universe  The internet, social media, and spreading access to data germinates ideas at an ever-increasing rate • Downside  Our knowledge is starting to penetrate mysteries of the universe that have always been the purview of religious authorities.  Most of the research and technological development to prepare for an unknown future is in areas where there are no immediate results to validate the expense
  • 11. Conclusion Whether our race, the planet, or our whole solar system will someday face annihilation, there is no other defence than the development and use of new technologies. Technology and the knowledge and curiosity that drives its development are the keys to our future References Baalke, R. (n.d.). The Probability of Collisions with Earth. Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology. Retrieved from http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/sl9/back2.html. Blong, R. J. (1984). Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook on the effects of eruptions. Sydney: Academic Press. Chandra, S., Kuljanin, G., & Wray, J. (2012). Mortality From the Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919: The Case of India. Demography, 49(3), 857- 865. doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0116-x. Coffey, J. (2010). Arenal volcano at night [Photograph] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.universetoday.com/59287/costa-rico-volcano/. Corpses. (1918) [Image]. Retrieved from http://dickinson-enb150.blogspot.ca/ 2011/05/spanish-flu-1918.html. Cowen, R. (2000). History of Life. (3rd ed.). Boston: Blackwell Science. Cowen, R. (2004). EXTINCTION. Retrieved from http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/education/events/cowen1a.html.
  • 12. References - continued Crew, Apollo 17. (1972).The Blue Marble. [Photograph] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=55418. Durda, D. (2010). How to Deflect a Hazardous Asteroid. Sky & Telescope, 120(6), 22-28. Eye. (1982). [Image] Retrieved from http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/08/ridley-scott-will-direct-new-blade.html. Furniss, C. (2007). One Less Thing to Worry About: Volcanoes. Esquire, 148(4), 183. McNutt, S.R. (1996). Seismic Monitoring and Eruption Forecasting of Volcanoes: A Review of the State of the Art and Case Histories. Scarpa and Tilling, eds., Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 99-146. Retreived from http://www.giseis.alaska.edu/input/ steve/PUBS/mcnutt-1996-scarpa.PDF. Morrison, D. (2004). FAQs About NEO Impacts. Nasa Ames Research Center. Retrieved from http://impact.arc.nasa.gov/intro_faq.cfm. Nasa. (2005). Impact on Asteroid [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.universetoday.com/16066/bad-idea-blowing-up-asteroids- with-nuclear-missiles/. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Conceptual Image Lab. (2012). Asteroid and Craft [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.space.com/14370-asteroid-shield-earth-threat-protection-meeting.html. NASA/JPL-Caltech. (2012). PHAs in Near Earth Orbit [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://www.space.com/15734-dangerous-asteroid- census-nasa-telescope.html. Stivers, M. (2009) [Cartoon]. Avoid the Plague. Retrieved from http://www.markstivers.com/wordpress/comics/2009-10-10-Avoid-the- plague.gif Telescope, Land Based. (2010). [Image] [Modified]. Big Vision. The Hindu. Retrieved from http://www.thehindu.com/news/article487509.ece. Undersea Marine Robot. (n.d.) [Image]. Retrieved from http://www.dailygalaxy.com /my_weblog/2008/05/robots-help-exp.html. Virus Cartoon. (2009). [Image] [Modified]. Retrieved from http://amog.com/ health/pandemic-flu-viruses-formidable-adversary/. Volti, R. (2010). Society and technological change. (6th ed.). New York: Worth Publishers.