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Managing Catastrophic Risks - Satoru Nishikawa


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‘There’s enough scientific knowledge to reduce suffering, but it’s not being adequately applied.’ - Satoru Nishikawa

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Managing Catastrophic Risks - Satoru Nishikawa

  1. 1. Ranking of Earthquakes 20-21st Century Strong Earthquakes Deadly EarthquakesYear Place Magnitude Year Place Casualties1960 Chili 9.5 1976 China Tangshan 2428001964 Alaska 9.2 1920 China Ningxia 2355022004 Indonesia Sumatra 9.1 2004 Indonesia Sumatra 2278982011 East Japan 9.0 2010 Haiti 2225001952 Kamchatka 9.0 1923 Japan Kanto 1050002010 Chili 8.8 2008 China Sichuan 875871906 Ecuador 8.8 2005 Pakistan, Afghanistan 860001965 Alaska Aleutian Islands 8.7 1908 Italy Sicily 820002005 Indonesia Sumatra 8.6 1927 China Gansu 800001950 Tibet, Assam 8.6 1970 Peru 667941957 Alaska Aleutian Islands 8.6 ・ ・ ・ 2011 East Japan 20001
  2. 2. Hazards Confronting Vulnerable Communities Cause Disasters Disasters Hazard Vulnerability (risk assessment) (societal conditions) 3
  3. 3. Less Disasters DisastersHazard Vulnerability(risk assessment) (societal conditions) 4
  4. 4. Four Phases of Disaster ReductionPre-Disaster Prevention & Mitigation PreparednessPost-Disaster Response Recovery & Reconstruction
  5. 5. Real-time Earthquake Early Warning issued 8.6 secondsafter the first quake Earthquake! Primary Pressure Few Sec’s wave travels much faster than Several Sec’s the Epicenter Secondary Shake 15 seconds to Sendai wave Japan Met Agency issues EEW and is aired on TV, Radio and cell phones 65 seconds to Tokyo Protect yourself before the main shake comes!
  6. 6. NHK Broadcasting on March 11 14:46 Emergency! Earthquake Early WarningLive coverage of National Diet Session was being aired.Suddenly the special alarm sound sets off and the specialscreen broke in.
  7. 7. Tohoku Shinkansen (Bullet Train) immediately stopped No derailment, No fatalities, No injuries. Epicenter P-wave detected Power-off Emergency Seismo- Electricity Power Brake meter Transformer S-wave Shinkansen running at 270km/h. Safe Stop!
  8. 8. NHK Broadcasting on March 11 14:48 Changed screen to live coverage from the automated camera in Sendai City.Cut out from the live coverage of National Diet Session
  9. 9. 14:49 JMA issues first Tsunami Warning to Pacific coast of Japan NHK Broadcasting on March 11 14:50 Tsunami Warning Screen Aired15:14 JMA upgrades Tsunami Warning based on the off shoreGPS buoy sea level observation. NHK immediately airs screen.
  10. 10. Tsunami Warning → Run! Disaster Education Tested! Elementary Junior HighJunior high school students helping elementary school children to run to high grounds in Kamaishi City.
  11. 11. Massive Evacuation ! Emergency Sirens for Elementary School on hilltop Tsunami Warning Signs of Tsunami Evacuation BuildingApprox. 500,000 people in theTsunami inundated area.Majority escaped.But 20,000 did not make it! Photos by ADRC(including 276 firefighters in duty)
  12. 12. Success & Failure of Mitigation Structures Great Watergate of Fudai 15.5m high, engineered to withstand the 1896 tsunami. All villagers safe. Photo by Nihon Keizai Shinbun Great Tsunami Levee of Taroo 10m high, engineered to withstand the 1933 tsunami. Tsunami overran. Catastrophic Photo by Nikkei Construction damage.
  13. 13. Lessons to be shared for future generations December 2004
  14. 14. Lessons to be shared for future generations September 2005
  15. 15. Lessons to be shared for future generations March 2011 Safe high grounds