Gold falls 2 pc as US jobs data dims stimulus hope.Oil price near $95 ahead of US jobs report,Copper above $7,500/t an opportunity to short.http://www.trifidresearch.com/commodity-tips.php

1. 10 JUNE – 15 JUNE 2013
W E E K L Y
R
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P
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Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy…
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2. MAJOR EVENTS
Gold fell around 2 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day drop in over three weeks, as
funds dumped bullion after resilient US jobs data suggested the Federal Reserve could
begin to scale back its monetary stimulus later this year. The metal posted its first
weekly drop in two weeks after Friday's selloff more than erased gains earlier this
week. A sharp dollar drop and strong physical demand had lifted gold above $1,400 an
ounce for most of this week. For the week, bullion eased 0.3 percent. The United
States added 175,000 jobs last month after adding just 149,000 in April, reducing
hopes of prolonged stimulus, and that weighed down on gold's inflation-hedge
appeal.
Spot gold was down 2.1 percent at $1,383.96 an ounce by 2:28 p.m. EDT (1828 GMT),
having hit a low of $1,377.29, the lowest since May 28.U.S. Comex gold futures for
August delivery settled down $32.80 an ounce at $1,383.00.The nonfarm payrolls
report also showed that U.S. unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point higher to
7.6 percent, but only because more Americans began to hunt for jobs.
Oil rose Friday ahead of the release of a key US jobs report that traders will examine
for clues to the health of the US economy. Benchmark oil for July delivery was up 36
cents to $95.12 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.02 to finish at $94.76 a barrel
Thursday.
The US Labor Department will release its employment report for May later in the day.
A good result is expected, following a drop in jobless claims reported on Thursday.
Oil prices were also being supported by a weaker dollar and a bigger-than-expected
drop in crude inventories reported by the US Energy Department and the American
Petroleum Institute for the week ending May 31.
Brent crude, a benchmark for many international oil varieties, rose 55 cents to
$104.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.
Oil price near
$95 ahead of US
jobs report.
Copper above
$7,500/t an
opportunity to
short.
Copper price movement above $7,500/ton is an opportunity to sell the base metal on
likely slowing Chinese consumption over the summer alongside further supply increase
through second half of the year.
Copper prices are expected to witness a fall in the second quarter of this year on
improved supply. The bank favours selling into rally in the base metal.
However, in the short term the commodity's prices may go up on recent supply
disruptions, fall in scrap supply and short positioning as well as seasonal improvement
in Chinese demand. The mining activities at Grasberg, world's second largest copper
mine would remain shut till a government enquiry ends on tunnel mishap that killed
mine workers. The mine is expected to remain shut for three months.
Closure of mine for three months mean loss of 120 Kt of copper production. However,
it was subsequently noted by the Indonesian economics minister that the investigation
should proceed as quickly as possible, suggesting that the shut-down could be much
shorter.
Gold falls 2 pc as
US jobs data
dims stimulus
hope.

3. E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
June 10, 7:20pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
June 11, 5:00pm NFIB Small Business Index 93.4 92.1
7:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.1% 0.4%
June 12, 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -6.3M
10:30pm 10-y Bond Auction 1.8I2.7
11:30pm Federal Budget Balance -110.2B 112.9B
June 13, 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% -0.2%
6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.1%
6:00pm Unemployment Claims 354K 346K
6:00pm Import Prices m/m 0.1% -0.5%
7:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.3% 0.0%
8:00pm Natural Gas Storage 111B
10:30pm 30-y Bond Auction 2.98I2.5
June 14, 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.1% -0.7%
6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.1% 0.1%
6:00pm Current Account -111B -110B
6:45pm
Capacity Utilization Rate 77.9% 77.8%
6:45pm
Industrial Production m/m 0.3% -0.5%
7:25pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 84.9 84.5
7:25pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 3.1%

4. S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
26950 26200 25370 28100 28770 29450
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
42400 40740 38800 45000 46850 48550
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD last week showed bullish
movement on daily charts but unable
to sustain on higher side. It took
resistance of 38.2% retracement i.e.
28100 but gave closing below it. Now if
it sustain above 28100 then only
bullish movement will be expected. On
other hand, if it surpasses the lower
band of short upward channel pattern
then 27400 will act as strong support
for it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 27400 for the targets of 27000-
26200 with stop loss of 28100.
PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER last week showed sideways
movement and took resistance of trend
line but unable to break it and
rebounded on last session due to US
data. Closing below the trend line
indicates further bearishness up to
40750. On other hand if it gives closing
above 45300 then only bullish
movements expected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 42400 for
targets of 40800-39800, with stop loss of
45200.

5. C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
5380 5235 5060 5550 5650 5800
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
410 400 387 422 430 438
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week broke its crucial
resistance level of 61.8% retracement
but unable to sustain above this and
closed near 50% retracement, found
support of trend line on daily charts.
Now, if it break support of 410 which
is its 50% retracement then next
support is seen near psychological
level of 400. On higher side if it gives
closing above 421 then only bullish
movements is expected.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy
on dips for the targets of 5620-5700 with
stop loss of 5370.
PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
Crude oil on daily charts took support
of lower band of upward channel
pattern, exhibited a continous bull rally
and closed on a strong note above
5500. Now, if this bullish movement
continous then upper band of channel
pattern i.e. 5625 will act as resistance
for it. On lower side weekly trend line
will act as support for it i.e. 5470.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER will be sell
below 410, with stop loss of 422 for the
target of 400.
PIVOT TABLE

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