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Dr. David Anderson - Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis; Effects on US Cattle Herd
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Dr. David Anderson - Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis; Effects on US Cattle Herd

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Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis; Effects on US Cattle Herd - Dr. David Anderson, Texas A&M, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', …

Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis; Effects on US Cattle Herd - Dr. David Anderson, Texas A&M, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA.

More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive

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  • 1. Economic Aspects ofEconomic Aspects of Trichomoniasis: Effects on USTrichomoniasis: Effects on US Cattle HerdCattle Herd NIAA/USAHA Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis Standards Omaha, Nebraska April 3, 2014 David P. Anderson
  • 2. OverviewOverview • Texas Industry • Economic Impact • Ranch Level Impact TrichTrich
  • 3. TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions • 20 Percent of Herds – Herd vs cattle – Last data about 150,000 operations • Weighted Average of Weaning Rates – 85% on 80% of cattle – 73% on 20% of cattle • Estimated Number of Calves Not Produced
  • 4. TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions • 90 Day Calving Interval • Other Scenarios Are Reasonable • Tradeoff – Chose to go with 90 interval – Impact of disease on number of calves rather than weights – Can assume longer calving interval, more calves but lighter weights
  • 5. ImpactImpact • Lose Approximately 96,000 Calves – Lost potential • About 2.5 Percent Fewer Calves • At 2013 Average Prices $95 Million in Revenue – Cow/Calf Value – Revenue that was not realized
  • 6. ImpactImpact • If evaluated at Feedlot, Finished Level – 96,000 more fed cattle • Total Revenue Lost – $156 million
  • 7. Couple Other CommentsCouple Other Comments • Given Infrastructure Losses of Late – 96,000 more fed cattle is a pretty good size feedlot – 96,000 more head for a packing plant
  • 8. Representative RanchRepresentative Ranch AnalysisAnalysis • AFPC Representative Ranches • Representative Ranches Guthrie – 335 cows – Used to be 500 before the drought • Base and 1 Scenario – Base 85 percent weaning – Trich scenario 73 percent weaning
  • 9. -46000 -44000 -42000 -40000 -38000 -36000 -34000 -32000 Revenue NCFI Guthrie Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016
  • 10. Ranch Level ImpactsRanch Level Impacts • Decline in Revenue and NCFI – 9%, 81%, respectively • Significant Impact on Ranch Economics • Annual Effects – Cumulative over time is large
  • 11. Remaining WorkRemaining Work • Formalize Alternative Scenarios – Alternative calving intervals – Impacts on number of calves and calf weights • Extend Analysis to Representative Ranches in Other States • Write the Analysis Up and Publish – Get analysis out to wider audience