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Emerging issues for retail financial services   21 june 2011
 

Emerging issues for retail financial services 21 june 2011

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A talk given to several banks on some of the possible future impacts on the retail finance sector from 6 changes on the 2020 horizon. Each insight is supported by potential implications for the sector ...

A talk given to several banks on some of the possible future impacts on the retail finance sector from 6 changes on the 2020 horizon. Each insight is supported by potential implications for the sector and signals from today that support this.

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    Emerging issues for retail financial services   21 june 2011 Emerging issues for retail financial services 21 june 2011 Presentation Transcript

    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   The  World  in  2020:   Emerging  Issues  for  Retail  Financial  Services     21  June  2011  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  programme  that  ran  throughout  2010  and  engaged  expert  input  from  over  140  countries  to  gain  a  unique  global  view  
    • Context  Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  OrganisaKons  increasingly  seek  to  complement  their  Inside-­‐Out  perspecKves  with  informed  Outside-­‐In  views  of  how  the   world  around  them  is  changing  and  with  what  impact  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  srowth  Imbalanced  PopulaKon  Gtyles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles CertainKes   By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,     mostly  in  places  least  able  to  accommodate  them  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Key  Resource  Constraints   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles CertainKes  We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poliKcal  shortages  of  key   materials  that  result  in  major  changes  in  our  perspecKves  
    • Click  to  edit  MShiU   text  styles  Asian  Wealth   aster   CertainKes     Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  shiUs  East  with   decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Ubiquitous  Data  Access   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles CertainKes   We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can     benefit  from  a  network  connecKon  will  have  one  
    • Click  to  Money  Mobile   edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles Wealth   Proven  systems  built  on  mobile  connecKvity  and     increasingly  flexible  means  of  exchange  provide  a   Kpping  point  in  the  shiU  towards  the  cashless  society  
    • Click  to  Money  Mobile   edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    The  mobile  is  becoming  the  most  important  means  of  money   exchange  on  a  global  basis  for  the  average  person   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  >50%  of  money  transfer  digital   •  15-­‐20%  cash  for  grey  economy   •  <£1k  transacCons  widespread   •  Drives  micropayment  growth   •  1bn  m-­‐payment  users  by  2015   •  Decline  of  plasCc  credit  cards   •  Interest  payment  on  stored  value   •  Storage+  authenCcaCon+  control   •  Contactless  payments  
    • Click  to  Currencies   text  styles  Virtual   edit  Master   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles Wealth   AlternaKve  on-­‐line  currencies  are  dominant  for     the  majority  of  payments  and  transfers  and    increasingly  influence  the  ‘real’  world  
    • Click  to  Currencies   text  styles  Virtual   edit  Master   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    As  virtual  payments  dominate  transacCons  online,  virtual   currencies  take  a  role  in  money  transfer  in  the  real  world   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  Global  virtual  currencies     •  Dominates  the  mass  market   •  ShiM  of  transacCons  to  virtual   •  Virtual  currency  storage/lending   •  Digital-­‐only  specialist  banks   •  Mobile  airCme  in  Africa   •  Digital  ‘gold’  global  currency   •  Local  currencies  in  UK  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Lease  Everything   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles Wealth   Rising  sustainability  imperaKves  and  increasing     cost  of  ownership  shiU  the  balance  from     ownership  to  access  and  we  prefer  to  rent  than  buy    
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Lease  Everything   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    Ownership  is  no  longer  a  priority  as  we  rent  rather  than  buy   and  seek  to  decrease  our  personal  debt  exposure   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  RenCng  becomes  the  default   •  Saving  to  credit  to  usage  shiM   •  Decrease  in  mortgages   •  Finance  for  leasing  companies   •  Electric  cars  and  road  tolls   •  SecuriCsaCon  for  end  customers   •  Samsung  leasing  PCs  by  2015   •  Pivotal  role  of  trusted  services   •  Fashion  rental  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  AcKve  Elderly   Click  to  edit  Master  Happiness text  styles   A  wealthier,  healthier  older  generaKon  increasingly     engage  in  more  acKve  lives,  having  extended  careers     and  becoming  more  poliKcally  involved  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  AcKve  Elderly   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    With  over  70%  of  disposable  income  controlled  by  some  of  the     over  50s,  they  become  the  primary  focus  for  new  products   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  Most  people  will  work  unCl  70   •  UK  reCrement  age  shiM  to  68   •  Steady  shiM  in  dependency  raCos   •  Declining  EU  natural  populaCon   •  All  need  to  be  2x  as  producCve   •  Pensions  designed  for  20  yrs  max   •  ‘Old  with  assets’  =  source  of  cash   •  More  equity  release  products   •  Support  for  those  without  assets  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Muslim  Europe   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles Mobility   With  increasing  economic  migraKon  the  total     Muslim  populaKon  of  Europe  is  similar  in  size  to  that     of  Germany  and  a  rising  cultural  /  poliKcal  influence  
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles  Muslim  Europe   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    A  growing  and  accessible  UK  Muslim  populaCon  will  become   the  sCmulus  for  a  range  of  new  product  and  service  innovaCon   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  80m  Muslim  EU  populaCon   •  20  main  urban  centres  in  EU   •  Increased  influence  of  Turkey   •  Addressable  +  disCncCve  market   •  French  /  German  actudes   •  Large  demand  for  Islamic  finance   •  MigraCon  from  North  Africa   •  Increasing  repatriaCon  of  cash  
    • Click  to  eSources   text  styles  Credible   dit  Master   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles Security   Greater  informaKon  overload  moves  our  focus     from  simply  accessing  data  to  include  the  source     of  the  insight  to  disKnguish  what  we  trust  
    • Click  to  eSources   text  styles  Credible   dit  Master   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles    The  changing  nature  of  privacy  and  trust  balances  the  desire   for  collaboraCon  with  concern  over  data  access  and  control   Future  ImplicaKons:   Signals  from  Today:   •  Pervasive  cheap  data   •  InformaCon  overload  for  some   •  SemanCc  web  technologies   •  Intelligent  search  ubiquitous   •  Winners  make  data  useful   •  Trusted  credible  brands    
    • Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles   For  more  informaKon:   futureagenda.org   growthagenda.com