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Education institute2012techforecast


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  • 1. Stephen AbramGale Cengage LearningEducation InstituteSept. 17, 2012
  • 2. Content FragmentationDigitization’s real impact – non-fictionFormat Print, ePUB, PDF, Kindle, etc. etc. CD, DVD, USB, etc. etc. Streaming Licenses, Open Access, Creative Commons, etc. etc.eBookseJournalseContentCopyright Issues (NatGeo, Tasini, TPP, SOPA, etc. etc.)Author LawsuitsCitation fragmentation
  • 3. Beyond TextChallenging the concept of the ‘book’• Text• Links and extension experiences• Graphics & Charts• Working Formulae• Interactive Pictures• Interactive Maps• Video• Audio• Music – book scores• Gamification• Deep Data Mining• Assessments• Etc. etc.
  • 4. Walled GardensILSCMSCloud(s)Device dependenciesFormats (e.g. Kindle)AmazonAppleADVICE . . .
  • 5. Learning Object DiversificationNext Generation TextbookseLearning – object componentizationLearning Management SystemsCohort Learning EnvironmentsPresentation SystemsVirtual Conference EnvironmentsPersonal Learning EnvironmentsCollaboration Software and environmentsMOOCsFreelearning
  • 6. End User FragmentationTeens / Post-MillennialsMillennialsOther demographicsMarkets driven by the walled gardens (devices, search engines, software,retailers, schools)Business versus ConsumerThe Device DivideMobility
  • 7. Search FragmentationDisplay versus List• Consumer Search• Specialized Search• Professional Search• Semantic, Sentiment, Suggestion Search etc.• Mobile search• Social search• Visual Search• Augmented Reality• SEO• SMO• Content Spam• Geo-location
  • 8. Technology FragmentationThe Contradiction: device dependency and divorce• Feature Phones• Smartphones• Tablets• Laptops• Desktops• Gaming stations• Television• E-Readers• Internet of Things• Browsers
  • 9. The polarization of professionaldiscussionDogmatic vs. Professional positionson: eBooks, access, copyright, etc.
  • 10. Black & White
  • 11. Recognize key shifts
  • 12. Trends Differ by Library SectorPublic LibrariesAcademic Research LibrariesCommunity College LibrariesSchool LibrariesSpecialized LibrariesConsortia
  • 13. Public LibrariesRecommendations (LibraryThing for Libraries, BiblioCommons, BookPsychic(Portland PL)eBook issuesCommunity GlueEconomic ImpactPatron-driven acquisitionsExperience PortalsProgramsPartnershipsEducation and LearningLiteracy of all kinds
  • 14. Academic Research LibrarieseLearningRepositoriesContent ArchipelagosLibGuidesPatron-driven acquisitionsInformation FluencyDemarcation between Undergrad, Grad and Faculty/Staff strategiesCopyright complianceE-Coursepacks and e-ReservesStrategic budgetingPartnerships
  • 15. Community College and UndergradInformation LiteracyDistance education and eLearningTextbooks, Reserves, Coursepacks, e-allMOOCsMobilityCollections for new degrees and certifications
  • 16. School LibrariesCommon Core21st Century LearningFuture of the textbookScaffolded Information Literacy / FluencyFiltersStaff and Faculty relationshipsClassroom pages
  • 17. Specialized LibrariesIntranetsMS SharePointRelationship buildingEmbedded LibrarianshipSocial and Professional Positioning, Reputation and Awareness
  • 18. ConsortiaDPLA (US based, global impact)Library RenewalEuropeanaEveryLibrary (US Advocacy PAC)OCLC Linked Data3M e-booksCalifa / Douglas County initiativesCloud initiatives
  • 19. Where are the real opportunities?What strategic pilots andinterventions are needed?
  • 20. It’s a long list . . .QR Codes versus Near Field Communication (NFC)eLearning and Personal Learning Environments (PLEs)Mobility – concept of placeHTML, HTML5, Apps, etc.Smartphones, Tablets, Laptops, DesktopsInternet of Things, Intelligent AppliancesRetro-conversions: CD, DVD, Espresso Book Machines, 3D PrintingE-Readers versus Tablet readingAugmented RealityGamification versus GamingPayments: Square, NFC, MTML5, Apps
  • 21. A longer List . . .Post processing tools and literacyLibGuides and WebliographyInformation Portals . . . Knowledge Portals . . . Experience Portals . . .Smart Rooms . . . Smart Houses . . . Smart ClassroomsOpen Access – free, fee, models and accessibility . . . ArchipelagosMobile versus Landline . . . Decline of the shared phoneTelevision versus DVD versus StreamingeBooks evolution – Fiction and Non-FictionCollaboration versus Social Sites and softwareConsumer versus Professional Search . . . The divorceLibrary Collaboration and Cooperation – The Cloud
  • 22. A long list …End user diversification – tech Luddites versus zealotsDevice literacy . . . Information Literacy . . . Information Fluency . . . ActualworkGlobalization of copyright and information / intellectual toolsGeo-tagging and geo-locationContextual advertising in books and places heretofore unconsideredAdvanced behavioural analytics and impact and satisfaction measures3D Printing as a service
  • 23. A longer List . . .Publishing Industry Changes • Liquid books • Multimedia embedding • The beyond text hybrid ‘book’ aimed at learning, work, or entertainment • Long period of format fragmentation • Walled gardens and exclusives in some sectors – more retail stressors • Bestselling ‘Author’ power plays • eTextbooks and the role of digitally wrapped 20th century solutions • Rights wars among big players – Apple, Amazon, B&N, and publishers who didn’t exist as publishers in 1999 • Large library acquisition consortia & alliances • Giant lawsuits • TPP, ACTA, WIPO, etc. • Movement to less ownership and more usage based models • Print on Demand (EBM Kodak announcement)
  • 24. Not ready for primetimeAt least in the near future:• True deep federated search retrieval versus decent source discovery• Deep Holographs and Holodecks• Machine language translation• Android-like Robots• Self driving cars• Google glasses• Death of libraries or the decline of librarians
  • 25. Grocery Stores
  • 26. Grocery Stores
  • 27. Grocery Stores
  • 28. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
  • 29. Cookbooks, Chefs . . .
  • 30. Meals
  • 31. What is a meal in library end-user orresearch, and learning terms?Think: Are you thinking food, courses,days, weekly plan, or nutritionoverall?
  • 32. Library Space ConcernsCommunity expectationsFirst ImpressionsCleanlinessRetail modelsDisplays (return carts, colour blocking, …)SignageSmart RoomsExperience CommonsCommunity CommonsBoundariesParking lots and the skirts as public programming spaceStreet fairsPartnershipsGardens
  • 33. The newbibliography and collection development KNOWLEDGE PORTALS KNOWLEDGE, LEARNING, INFORMATION & RESEARCH COMMONS
  • 34. What are the real issues?Craft versus Industrial StrengthPilot, Project, Initiative versus Portfolio StrategyHand knitted prototypes versus Productione.g. Information Literacy initiatives Discovery versus Search versus Deep Search eLearning unitsStrategic Analytics Value measures Behaviours
  • 35. Be More Open to the Users’ Path
  • 36. What Would You Attempt IfYou Knew You Would NotFail?
  • 37. My Humble Recommendations Focus on the user, I mean really Pilot and experiment with mobile social cohorts Classes (mobile training or extended learning) Reading cohorts and book clubs (LibraryPsychic andBiblioCommons) Patron-driven acquisition strategies Fundraising innovation Meetings and conferences - webinars
  • 38. My Humble RecommendationsActively lobby and educate to ensure that the emerging mobileecosystem supports the values and principles of librarianship forbalance in the rights of end users for use, access, learning andresearch. Support vendors and laws to be as agnostic as possible by ensuringthat, as far as possible your services and content offerings support thewidest range of devices, formats, browsers, and platforms.
  • 39. eLearningMobileDistantTools
  • 40. My Humble Recommendations Design for frictionless access using such opportunitiesas geo-IP and mobile ready websites Test everything in all browsers – mobile or not – alldevices. Invest in usability research aimed at the user experienceand test and learn from it and share your learning. Don’t prioritize the librarian experience first Watch key developments in major publishing spaces –retail, kiddy lit, textbooks, e-learning, fiction, etc. Sportthe differences and opportunities
  • 41. My Personal Hobby Horses This is an evolution not a revolution The REAL revolution was the Internet and the Web. The hybrid ecology is winning in the near term foroperating systems and content formats. This is good since competition drives innovation andwe’re in a Renaissance not an end game right now. Engage in critical thinking not raw criticism. Beconstructive. Critical thinking is not part of dogma, technolust, orreligious fervor or fan boy behavior.
  • 42. My Personal Hobby Horses This is an evolution not a revolution Perfectionism will not move us forward at this juncture. Really understand the digital divide and remove youreconomic and social class blinkers Get real about teens and Boomers Get over library obsession with statistics andcomprehensiveness. Get excellent at real measurements, sampling andunderstanding impact and satisfaction. (Analytics,Foresee, Pew)
  • 43. My Personal Hobby Horses This is an evolution not a revolution We need to revisit the concept of preservation,archives, repositories, and conservation from anaccess and linked data view. Check out new publishing models like Flipboard. Watch for emerging book enhancements andother features that will challenge library metadata,selection policies, and collection development.
  • 44. Smelly OrYellow SexLiquid Appeal?
  • 45. Consider the Whole Experience
  • 46. Until the lion learns to write her own story, thestory will always be from the perspective o thehunter not the hunted.
  • 47. Stephen Abram, MLS, FSLAVP strategic partnerships and markets Cengage Learning (Gale) Cel: 416-669-4855 Stephen’s Lighthouse Blog Facebook, Pinterest: Stephen Abram LinkedIn / Plaxo: Stephen Abram Twitter: @sabram SlideShare: StephenAbram1