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From the Harvard Business Press Case study of "Plan Operations- Sales Forecast, resource capacity and Dynamic budgets" By Prof. Kaplan and Prof. Norton. Presented as a class work in IoBM-Karachi

From the Harvard Business Press Case study of "Plan Operations- Sales Forecast, resource capacity and Dynamic budgets" By Prof. Kaplan and Prof. Norton. Presented as a class work in IoBM-Karachi

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Plan operations. final Plan operations. final Presentation Transcript

  • Plan Operations Sale Forecast, Resource Capacity & Dynamic Budget Course: Sales Management Presented By: Faiza Hammad (13865) Noman Ameen Shah Rukh (12485) Sana Sadiq (12877) 1
  • Budgets and Beyond… • Functions of Budgets in most companies • Fatal Weaknesses of Budgets 2
  • 4 Management Control Processes at BOREALIS • Petrochemical Division of 2 Nordic Oil Companies : Neste and Statoil • Bogsnes (Head of Budgeting ate StatOil) moved to BOREALIS : “ Forecast should be real, targets should be challenging. Both should not be the same Number” • Boesen, Financial Controller at BOREALIS supported Bogsnes “ Budget becomes out dated with in weeks, managers make detailed documents and never look at them again” • Replaced Budget with 4 targeted management Control Processes • Functions of 4 targeted management Control Processes 1.) Deliver Capabilities of traditional Annual Budget 2.) Provide much broader set of capabilities 3.) Low cost & no dysfunctional aspects from BUDGETING process 3
  • 4 Management Control Processes at BOREALIS 4
  • How New Processes at BOREALIS replaced roles in “BUDGET” Role Budget Roles High level planning Financial Borealis Processes and Tax Rolling Financial Forecast Target Setting and Performance Balanced Scorecard Evaluation Controlling Fixed costs - Activity Based Costing - Trend Reporting - External Bench Marking Authorizing and Allocating CAPEX -Small Projects : Trend reporting : Localized -Medium Projects : Varying Hurdle rate -Major Strategic Projects : Done by Board on case to case basis 5
  • Framework : Platform for new integrated Planning & Resource Allocation 6
  • Key Innovation of Frame Work : TDABC • TDABC = Time Driven Activity Based Cost • Link Strategic Planning to Operational and Capital Budgeting 7
  • STEP 1: USE DRIVER BASED REVENUE PLANNING TO OBTAIN SALES FORECAST 8
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast Recommendation of beyond budget : Quarterly forecast that must b more than current fiscal year. 9
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast PURPOSE: To avoid surprises with their investing & analyst communities in comparison with the old way that give un expected sales announcements & short fall result in decline of price & disappointment of investor. 10
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast ADVANTAGES: 1. Assistance in short financing planning 2. Receipt & disbursement of cash 3. Reflect current market scenario in comparison to budget prepared 6 month earlier. 4. Forces manager to look external & internal pressure to identify new opportunities & work for it through research & etc. 5. If demand is accelerating than u can invest capital / train or hire new blood to meet requirement. 11
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast MISCONCEPTION: This is not four time budgeting in a year & it is just a planning of revenue items. NAMED AS: Forecasting revenue through driver based planning. 12
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast DRIVERS are: 1.New product performance 2.Advertising performance 3.Sales promotions 4.Price performance 5.Sampling performance 6.Distribution 13
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast 14
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast • Forecasting Revenue thru driver based planning can be made for any industry with the help of their data base, which will be very useful for forecasting & must in cooperate competitor & macro environment , supplier, technology etc. 15
  • STEP 1 - Driver based planning to forecast • PRACTICAL EXAMPLE: Of financial service firm. Forecast Revenue (high level sales) 16
  • STEP 2: Translate the sales forecast in to sales and operating plans 17
  • STEP 2 •TFP needs to translate its aggregate sales in to operating plan for its next period of operations. •TFS expect to achieve its high level sales forecast that is: how many trades must be executed, how many new account must be opened and how many customer meeting must be held. •The operating plans specifies the expected quantity, mix and nature of individual sales order, production runs and transaction. 18
  • STEP 2 For example, to reach a forecast level of sales in each product and service line , the company could assume the same the same distribution of order size and frequency experienced in the past , but increased by the assumed percentage rise in sales . •Let suppose if the company has raised the minimum order size , then planner would eliminate small order and increase the frequency of larger order. • 19
  • STEP 3: Forecast resource capacity by entering sales and operating data in to TDABC model 20
  • STEP 3 •This step is key innovation in linking a strategic plan to an operating plan. •TDABC is new costing approach that is faster , simpler and more flexible traditional activity based costing . •TDABC assigns cost to product , services and customers based on two fundamental parameters: 21
  • Step 3 Figure shows how the TDABC model has enabled Tower ton financials to translate its sales and operating plan in to forecast demand for capacity(times) for all its personal and computing resource. 22
  • Step 3 Figure shows how TDABC model forecasts the quantity of resource unit required to implement a future period operating plan . 23
  • Step 3 In step 3 , company uses its projected sales and operating plan for the upcoming period to forecast the demand for time from employees and demand for time and space from tangible resources such as property , plant and equpment. 24
  • STEP 4: Derive dynamic forecast (budgets) for operational and capital spending (OPEX and CAPEX) 25
  • Important Definitions • OPEX: Operating Expenditure : Spending to supply employees, to operate equipments & facilities. OPEX runs through the Income statement • CAPEX: Capital Expenditure: Spending to add equipment & technology capacity, & to acquire space to support growth in future operations. Capitalized on to balance sheet and depreciated over time through income statement • BUDGET: Estimate of future expenses, rather than conventional “fixed performance target” Financial accountant determines which type of spending is OPEX and which is CAPEX 26
  • • Managers agree to resource supply for future • Financial Implications calculation • From TDBAC Co. already knows the cost of supplying each unit of resource • Eg.: Towerton Financials: 27
  • • New values after adjustments should be entered in to the model • Cost and spending forecast will now reflect “future expectations” rather then “Historic Actuals” • Fore cast cost of each unit * Qty of each type of Resource = Budgeted cost of supplying each Resource type • Results = Budgets derived analytically & quickly from sales & operations plan • ANALOGY = MRP (Material Resource Planning) 28
  • Forecasting Discretionary Spending • Discretionary spending on items: Research, development, Advertising, Promotion, training and Strategic Initiatives • Not a tight casual relationship b/w forecast spend on discretionary items w/t sales & operating levels • Discretionary Items forecast require parallel quarterly update of revenues • Spending on these items is a judgmental call by experienced executives & not based on automated decisions based on analytical Models calculations on 29
  • Forecasting Discretionary Spending • To complete exercise of forecasting spending levels in Future:  Planner obtain estimates for discretionary items, from executive teams of authorized levels  Financial Accountant classify much of these items as General & Administrative expense  Argument is “Spending on strategic initiatives = STRATEX”, should be classified as new Income statement line item • Authorization process should be revisited Quarterly based on recent actual information, economic and financial situations 30
  • Process & Advantages of Quarterly Forecast • Forecast is “pressure tested” in “x-functional” meetings • Forecast is judged on the bases of financial & Non-Financial parameters: Strategic fit  Risk  Option Values • Advantages Include: awareness of new projects before time  Better Info about potential size of field  Defer projects based on low financial capacity heads & volumes • No Budgets get CUT any where in the process 31
  • STEP 5: Estimate pro forma financial profitability by product, customer, channel & regional. 32
  • Towerton’s Example… 33
  • Thank You  34