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15.03.2013



                                                                                            Company Analysis - Overview
Ticker:                      CBK GY            Commerzbank AG                                                 Benchmark:                                           Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services.
Currency:                                      Xetra: CBK, Currency: EUR                                      DAX INDEX (DAX)                                      The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services,
                                                                                                                                                                   private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide.
Sector: Financials       Industry: Commercial Banks                                                              Year:
Telephone         49-69-136-20                          Revenue (M)                                  9'855    Business Segments in EUR                                     Sales (M)   Geographic Segments in EUR                            Sales (M)
Website           www.commerzbank.de/                   No of Employees                             53'798    Private and Business Customers                                   3350    Germany                                                       1
Address           Kaiserplatz Frankfurt am Main, 60261 Germany                                                Mittelstand - Corporate Banking                                  3016    Rest of Europe
Share Price Performance in EUR                                                                                Corporates & Markets                                             1596    America
Price                                  1.18             1M Return                                   -20.7%    Central and Eastern Europe                                         818   Asia
52 Week High                           2.00             6M Return                                   -25.8%    Others and Consolidation                                           680   Rest of the World
52 Week Low                            1.12             52 Wk Return                                -38.8%    Asset Based Finance                                                225
52 Wk Beta                             1.58             YTD Return                                  -17.5%    Portfolio Restructuring Unit                                       216
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                    HY4                                                                                                        2%2%
S&P                      A    *-       Date                07.02.2013                Outlook             -                        7%
Moody's                       A3       Date                06.06.2012                Outlook          NEG
Fitch                         A+       Date                09.04.2009                Outlook        STABLE                  8%
                                                                                                                                                                   35%
Valuation Ratios
                          12/09       12/10       12/11         12/12      12/13E        12/14E     12/15E
P/E                            -        4.6x        7.2x            -       11.8x           7.1x       5.0x              16%
EV/EBIT                        -           -           -            -            -             -          -
EV/EBITDA                      -           -           -            -            -             -          -
P/S                         0.2x        0.3x        0.2x         0.8x         0.7x          0.7x       0.6x
P/B                         0.8x        0.6x        0.3x         0.4x         0.3x          0.3x       0.3x
Div Yield                  0.0%        0.0%        0.0%             -        0.3%          2.4%       3.8%                                     30%                                                                100%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09          12/10       12/11         12/12      12/13E        12/14E     12/15E                       Private and Business Customers
Gross Margin                -             -           -             -           -             -          -                       Mittelstand - Corporate Banking
EBITDA Margin               -             -           -             -           -             -          -                       Corporates & Markets
Operating Margin        -18.7           9.8         4.3          11.9        14.2          17.0       23.3
                                                                                                                                 Central and Eastern Europe
Profit Margin           -37.1          10.4         5.9           0.1         5.6           9.8       14.3                                                                                                          Germany
                                                                                                                                 Others and Consolidation
Return on Assets         -0.6           0.2         0.1           0.0         0.1           0.2        0.2
Return on Equity        -48.6          14.6         4.0           0.0         1.9           3.5        5.1                       Asset Based Finance
                                                                                                                                 Portfolio Restructuring Unit
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09          12/10       12/11         12/12
Current Ratio               -             -           -             -                                         Current Capitalization in EUR
Quick Ratio                 -             -           -             -                                         Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                                                5829.5
EBIT/Interest               -             -           -             -                                         Market Capitalization (M)                                                                                    6896.3
Tot Debt/Capital          0.9           0.9         0.9             -                                         Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                                121104.0
Tot Debt/Equity          12.8          10.6        10.0             -                                         Total Debt (M)                                                                                             225254.0
Eff Tax Rate %              -             -           -          88.0                                         Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                         2376.0
                                                                                                              LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                       0.0
                                                                                                              Investments (M)                                                                                               858.0
                                                                                                              Enterprise Value (M)                                                                                       114280.3



                                                                                     Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
Commerzbank AG
Target price in EUR
Broker Recommendation




                                                             Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                            4           3
                        100%

                                                                                                                                                            3           2
                                  29%       29%      28%      26%        29%
                        80%                                                        37%        42%      44%       44%          44%        44%
                                                                                                                                                  50%                   2
                                                                                                                                                            3
                                                                                                                                                                        1
                        60%                                                                                                                                 2
                                                     42%      44%        40%                                                                                            1
                                  43%       43%
                                                                                                                                                            2
                        40%                                                        49%                                                                                  0
                                                                                              44%                                        41%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Morgan Stanley
                                                                                                                                                                                          Barclays




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Bankhaus Metzler




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Kepler Capital Markets
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        RBC Capital Markets




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Main First Bank AG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Equinet Institutional

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S&P Capital IQ




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       CA Cheuvreux


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Natixis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Credit Suisse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              JPMorgan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Macquarie




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Oddo & Cie


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Exane BNP Paribas
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Nord/LB
                                                                                                                                                                             DZ Bank AG


                                                                                                                                                                                                     Grupo Santander




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nomura




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Societe Generale

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    M.M. Warburg Investment



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              HSBC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mediobanca SpA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      EVA Dimensions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    AlphaValue




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Berenberg Bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Goldman Sachs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hamburger Sparkasse
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Independent Research GmbH




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Deutsche Bank
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Landesbank Baden-




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
                                                                                                       44%       44%          44%                 35%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Services(ESN)
                                                                                                                                                            1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Wuerttemberg
                        20%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Research
                                  29%       29%      31%      29%        31%                                                                                1
                                                                                   14%        14%      11%       11%          12%        15%      15%
                         0%                                                                                                                                 0
                                mars.12    avr.12   mai.12   juin.12    juil.12   août.12   sept.12   oct.12    nov.12       déc.12    janv.13   févr.13
                                                                       Buy        Hold        Sell      Price          Target Price

                               Date                   Buy               Hold                Sell                   Date               Price Target Price                Broker                                                                                                                               Analyst                                                                                                                                         Recommendation                                                                              Target                                                                     Date
                               28-Feb-13               15%               35%                50%                  15-Mar-13             1.18          1.36               DZ Bank AG                                                                                                                           CHRISTOPH BAST                                                                                                                                                      sell                                                                                1.00                                             15-Mar-13
                               31-Jan-13               15%               41%                44%                  14-Mar-13             1.20          1.37               Barclays                                                                                                                             KIRI VIJAYARAJAH                                                                                                                                               underweight                                                                              1.10                                             15-Mar-13
                               31-Dec-12               12%               44%                44%                  13-Mar-13             1.26          1.43               Grupo Santander                                                                                                                      TANIA GOLD                                                                                                                                                     underweight                                                                              1.15                                             14-Mar-13
                               30-Nov-12               11%               44%                44%                  12-Mar-13             1.40          1.50               Morgan Stanley                                                                                                                       FRANCESCA TONDI                                                                                                                                               Underwt/In-Line                                                                           1.10                                             14-Mar-13
                               31-Oct-12               11%               44%                44%                  11-Mar-13             1.44          1.50               Goldman Sachs                                                                                                                        MARTIN LEITGEB                                                                                                                                                neutral/neutral                                                                           1.55                                             14-Mar-13
                               28-Sep-12               14%               44%                42%                   8-Mar-13             1.45          1.50               RBC Capital Markets                                                                                                                  ANKE REINGEN                                                                                                                                                   underperform                                                                             1.20                                             14-Mar-13
                               31-Aug-12               14%               49%                37%                   7-Mar-13             1.42          1.50               Credit Suisse                                                                                                                        MAXENCE LE GOUVELLO                                                                                                                                             outperform                                                                              2.00                                             14-Mar-13
                               31-Jul-12               31%               40%                29%                   6-Mar-13             1.43          1.50               JPMorgan                                                                                                                             JAIME BECERRIL                                                                                                                                                    neutral                                                                               1.02                                             14-Mar-13
                               29-Jun-12               29%               44%                26%                   5-Mar-13             1.41          1.50               Macquarie                                                                                                                            THOMAS STOEGNER                                                                                                                                                   neutral                                                                               1.20                                             14-Mar-13
                               31-May-12               31%               42%                28%                   4-Mar-13             1.40          1.50               Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg                                                                                                        INGO FROMMEN                                                                                                                                                       hold                                                                                 1.30                                             14-Mar-13
                               30-Apr-12               29%               43%                29%                   1-Mar-13             1.40          1.51               Independent Research GmbH                                                                                                            STEFAN BONGARDT                                                                                                                                                     sell                                                                                1.10                                             14-Mar-13
                               30-Mar-12               29%               43%                29%                  28-Feb-13             1.41          1.51               Oddo & Cie                                                                                                                           JEAN SASSUS                                                                                                                                                       reduce                                                                                1.40                                             14-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 27-Feb-13             1.42          1.50               Bankhaus Metzler                                                                                                                     GUIDO HOYMANN                                                                                                                                                       sell                                                                                1.30                                             14-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 26-Feb-13             1.40          1.50               Exane BNP Paribas                                                                                                                    GUILLAUME TIBERGHIEN                                                                                                                                           underperform                                                                             1.30                                             14-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 25-Feb-13             1.45          1.50               Nord/LB                                                                                                                              MICHAEL SEUFERT                                                                                                                                                    hold                                                                                 1.25                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 22-Feb-13             1.41          1.50               Keefe, Bruyette & Woods                                                                                                              RONNY REHN                                                                                                                                                     underperform                                                                             1.20                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 21-Feb-13             1.43          1.50               Kepler Capital Markets                                                                                                               DIRK BECKER                                                                                                                                                       reduce                                                                                0.70                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 20-Feb-13             1.47          1.50               Nomura                                                                                                                               OMAR KEENAN                                                                                                                                                       reduce                                                                                1.50                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 19-Feb-13             1.51          1.50               Equinet Institutional Services(ESN)                                                                                                  PHILIPP HAESSLER                                                                                                                                                    sell                                                                                1.00                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 18-Feb-13             1.53          1.50               S&P Capital IQ                                                                                                                       FRANK BRADEN                                                                                                                                                       hold                                                                                 1.55                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 15-Feb-13             1.49          1.48               Main First Bank AG                                                                                                                   KILIAN MAIER                                                                                                                                                   underperform                                                                             1.20                                             13-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 14-Feb-13             1.47          1.49               AlphaValue                                                                                                                           DIETER HEIN                                                                                                                                                         add                                                                                 1.65                                              7-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 13-Feb-13             1.50          1.49               Societe Generale                                                                                                                     PHILIP RICHARDS                                                                                                                                                     sell                                                                                1.10                                              5-Mar-13
                                                                                                                 12-Feb-13             1.51          1.49               Hamburger Sparkasse                                                                                                                  CHRISTIAN HAMANN                                                                                                                                                    sell                                                                                                                                 15-Feb-13
                                                                                                                 11-Feb-13             1.51          1.49               M.M. Warburg Investment Research                                                                                                     ANDREAS PLAESIER                                                                                                                                                   hold                                                                                 1.45                                             15-Feb-13
                                                                                                                  8-Feb-13             1.49          1.49               Berenberg Bank                                                                                                                       NICK ANDERSON                                                                                                                                                       sell                                                                                1.00                                             15-Feb-13
                                                                                                                  7-Feb-13             1.46          1.49               HSBC                                                                                                                                 JOHANNES THORMANN                                                                                                                                               overweight                                                                              1.90                                             31-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  6-Feb-13             1.49          1.49               EVA Dimensions                                                                                                                       AUSTIN BURKETT                                                                                                                                                 underweight                                                                                                                               17-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  5-Feb-13             1.51          1.49               Deutsche Bank                                                                                                                        ALEXANDER HENDRICKS                                                                                                                                                hold                                                                                 1.50                                              1-Nov-12
                                                                                                                  4-Feb-13             1.52          1.49               CA Cheuvreux                                                                                                                         CYRIL MEILLAND                                                                                                                                                 underperform                                                                             1.30                                             10-Aug-12

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
15.03.2013



Commerzbank AG
                                                                             Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                    Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                 Geographic Ownership Distribution                                         Geographic Ownership
                                                                                           0%
Shares Outstanding (M)                         5829.5                                                                                Germany                                    81.67%
Float                                           74.9%                                                                                United States                              14.08%                              1% 1%1% 0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1%         1%
Short Interest (M)                                                                                                                   Luxembourg                                 1.01%
                                                                                                            38%
Short Interest as % of Float                                                                                                         France                                     0.80%                        14%
Days to Cover Shorts                                                                                                                 Britain                                    0.54%
Institutional Ownership                       37.91%                                                                                 Switzerland                                0.51%
Retail Ownership                              62.09%                                                                                 Ireland                                    0.38%
                                                                     62%
Insider Ownership                              0.00%                                                                                 Others                                     1.01%

                                                                                                                                     Institutional Ownership Distribution                                                                 81%
                                                                                                                                     Government                                 65.95%
                                                                                                                                     Investment Advisor                         22.97%
                                                                                                                                     Insurance Company                          7.19%
                                                          Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership          Mutual Fund Manager                        3.66%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Germany          United States   Luxembourg      France
Pricing data is in EUR                                                                                                               Others                                     0.23%              Britain          Switzerland     Ireland         Others
Top 20 Owners:                 TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                   Position   Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                   Source       Country
FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF                     1'457'378'418                   0                     1'724'078'668             25.00%                       31.01.2013   Research     GERMANY                               4%           0%
BLACKROCK                                 313'123'539              90'512                       370'425'147              5.37%                       13.03.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES                     7%
ALLIANZ SE                                158'754'249                   0                       187'806'277              2.72%                       07.03.2012   Research     GERMANY
VANGUARD GROUP INC                         68'996'872           2'722'059                        81'623'300              1.18%                       31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
MARSHALL WACE LLP                         -50'133'818          -9'910'174                       -59'308'307             -0.86%                       13.03.2013     Short       BRITAIN
FRANKFURT TRUST INVE                       22'030'550                   0                        26'062'141              0.38%                       28.12.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY
UNION INVESTMENT GMB                       21'236'463           2'131'853                        25'122'736              0.36%                       28.09.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY                       23%
THRIVENT FINANCIAL F                       11'346'050             -67'100                        13'422'377              0.19%                       31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES                                                    66%
DEUTSCHE BANK AG                            8'132'683           2'552'512                         9'620'964              0.14%                       31.01.2013   MF-AGG       GERMANY
ADIG INVESTMENT                             7'263'550                   0                         8'592'780              0.12%                       30.11.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY
DEKA INVESTMENT GMBH                        6'635'014          -2'979'650                         7'849'222              0.11%                       28.12.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY
ETFLAB INVESTMENT GM                        6'242'873                   0                         7'385'319              0.11%                       14.03.2013   MF-AGG       GERMANY
CREDIT SUISSE ASSET                         5'847'747             286'355                         6'917'885              0.10%                       28.12.2012   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
VERITAS SG INVESTMEN                        5'221'900            -864'000                         6'177'508              0.09%                       30.11.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY       Government             Investment Advisor        Insurance Company
                                                                                                                                                                                             Mutual Fund Manager    Others
COMMERZBANK AG                              5'113'429                   0                         6'049'187              0.09%                       31.12.2011    Co File     GERMANY
STATE STREET BANQUE                         4'692'099             -91'050                         5'550'753              0.08%                       31.01.2013   MF-AGG        FRANCE
DWS INVESTMENT S A                          4'627'388             826'488                         5'474'200              0.08%                       31.01.2013   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
FMR LLC                                     4'282'228          -7'720'168                         5'065'876              0.07%                       31.01.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV                        3'348'946                   0                         3'961'803              0.06%                       31.07.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES
UNIVERSAL INVESTMENT                        3'339'250             198'105                         3'950'333              0.06%                       02.10.2012   MF-AGG       GERMANY
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                  Position    Position Change                      Market Value          % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source




                                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
Commerzbank AG
Financial information is in EUR (M)                                                                                                                                                 Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03     12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12   12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                             21'148        15'635     15'115      16'666      24'340       27'339      24'181      25'393       25'027   21'462   9'855    9'945      10'305        10'679
  - Cost of Goods Sold

Gross Income
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                 5'451        4'845      4'746       4'808       5'425        5'611       5'418        9'511       9'335    8'428   7'025
          (Research & Dev Costs)

Operating Income                                       -819          346       835        1'535       2'559        2'477        -418       -2'285       1'351     465    1'170    1'410       1'748         2'485
  - Interest Expense
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                   -447        2'326        39         -145         163          -28         -15        2'374          -2      -42    265

Pretax Income                                          -372        -1'980      796        1'680       2'396        2'505        -403       -4'659       1'353      507    905      937        1'564         2'021
  - Income Tax Expense                                 -103           249      353          409         595          580        -465          -26        -136     -240    796

Income Before XO Items                                 -269        -2'229      443        1'271       1'801        1'925          62       -4'633       1'489     747     109
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                        0             0        0            0           0            0           0            0           0       0       0
   - Minority Interests                                  29            91       81          106         197            8          59          -96          59     109     103

Diluted EPS Before XO Items                                                                            1.96        2.34        0.00        (3.53)       0.97     0.18    0.18

Net Income Adjusted*                                  -298         -2'320      393        1'165       1'597        1'917          22       -2'865       1'405    1'409    986      555        1'014         1'527
EPS Adjusted                                         (0.45)         (3.41)    0.53        1.55        1.95         2.34        0.02         (2.22)      0.95     0.40    0.18     0.10        0.17          0.24
Dividends Per Share                                   0.08           0.00     0.20        0.40        0.60         0.80        0.00          0.00       0.00     0.00             0.00        0.03          0.05
        Payout Ratio %                                                        41.4        28.2        30.7         34.3         0.0                       0.0      0.0            0.03        0.17          0.19

Total Shares Outstanding                               677           746       742         818          820         820          901        1'473       1'463    5'113   5'830
Diluted Shares Outstanding                             666           679       740         754          819         819          845        1'288       1'471    3'460   5'612

EBITDA

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                            12/02     12/03     12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09        12/10     12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
  + Cash & Near Cash Items               6'612     5'711     3'634       5'465       5'129       4'962        6'566      10'329         8'053     6'075
  + Short Term Investments             121'834    91'563   175'219     189'323      99'340     114'154      136'856     239'655       183'515   165'993
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable
  + Inventories
  + Other Current Assets

Total Long-Term Assets
  + Long Term Investments               80'974    85'542     2'379       3'643     121'469     115'595      108'867     111'246       101'210    85'038
         Gross Fixed Assets
         Accumulated Depreciation
  + Net Fixed Assets                     2'505     2'063     1'766       1'525       1'388        1'293       1'240       1'779         1'590     1'399
  + Other Long Term Assets              12'385    11'786     9'879       9'807      18'670       22'958      23'883      22'211        21'560    18'882

Total Current Liabilities
  + Accounts Payable
  + Short Term Borrowings              140'750   110'383   132'391     151'388     131'769     126'081      128'656     142'123       110'629    72'740
  + Other Short Term Liabilities        92'497    74'981    89'091      30'573      78'752      91'925      121'407     224'971       172'280   158'489

Total Long Term Liabilities
  + Long Term Borrowings                76'203    78'269    79'165      83'575     197'120     179'601      149'649     148'663       131'428   127'889
  + Other Long Term Borrowings           6'914     7'648     8'143       8'335       3'662       4'001        4'369       5'596         4'461     3'513

Total Liabilities                      412'064   371'281   413'854     431'211     593'020     600'342      605'292     817'527       725'641   636'960
  + Long Preferred Equity                    0         0         0           0           0           0        8'200      17'178        17'178     2'687    2'376
  + Minority Interest                    1'262     1'213     1'269         947       1'023         997        1'877         570           785       699      858
  + Share Capital & APIC                 7'541     6'020     6'027       7'391       7'381       7'417        7'276       4'405         4'349    16'271   17'509
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity     1'267     3'071     3'727       5'312       6'854       7'718        2'551       4'423         6'346     5'146    4'496

Total Shareholders Equity               10'070    10'304    11'023      13'650      15'258       16'132      19'904      26'576        28'658    24'803   25'239

Total Liabilities & Equity             422'134   381'585   424'877     444'861     608'278     616'474      625'196     844'103       754'299   661'763

Book Value Per Share                     13.02     12.19     13.15       15.53       17.36        18.46       10.90         5.99         7.31      4.19     3.77     4.15     4.44     4.58
  Tangible Book Value Per Share          11.32     11.11     12.07       14.34       15.31        16.91        9.42         3.81         5.19      3.59




                                                              Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                             12/02     12/03     12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09        12/10     12/11    12/12   12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                                -298    -2'320        362       1'165       1'604        1'917           3       -4'537        1'430       638             260      922     1'353
  + Depreciation & Amortization          1'114       929      1'551       1'288       4'093         -156         520          743        4'101     4'006
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments             615     1'293      1'843      -3'161       1'403       -2'289        -424        6'542        2'685   -11'771
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital         21'741    17'010    -30'763      -1'050       4'212       -1'372      15'863      -32'794      -45'202   -32'544

Cash From Operating Activities           23'172    16'912   -27'007      -1'758      11'312       -1'900      15'962      -30'046      -36'986   -39'671
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets              1'955       424       285          66         334          467         293          663          187        74
  + Capital Expenditures                   -738      -317      -505        -429      -1'212         -275        -624       -4'426         -492      -296
  + Increase in Investments             -47'039   -52'351   -45'806     -57'560    -104'227         -385          -4       -5'240         -504      -335
  + Decrease in Investments              65'905    48'593    39'720      44'045      55'894        2'874       2'999          858       15'274    17'783
  + Other Investing Activities             -238        68        -3         333       3'579                      -71        2'453          298        83

Cash From Investing Activities           91'710     6'493   -3'496      -16'942    -186'429        7'743       1'854      -77'027      39'374    49'682
  + Dividends Paid                         -217       -54        0         -150        -328         -493        -657
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings       5'898   -19'735   20'181       14'470      -4'075         -705       3'372
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings          0         0    3'258        9'670     138'504                    8'734
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings    -97'938    -8'740     -529         -733                  -23'422     -39'822
  + Increase in Capital Stocks                0       831        1        1'364                                1'079        2'528
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks              -82         0                               -10            0                                   -56    -2'774
  + Other Financing Activities           -1'181      -908      -13          37           -3           -6        -129      13'893        -2'817    -1'732

Cash From Financing Activities         -114'218   -24'306   27'962       22'440     172'456       -6'653     -16'407     110'836        -4'664   -11'989

Net Changes in Cash                        664      -901     -2'541       3'740       -2'661        -810       1'409        3'763       -2'276    -1'978

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)              22'434    16'595    -27'512      -2'187      10'100       -2'175      15'338      -34'472      -37'478   -39'967

Free Cash Flow To Firm
Free Cash Flow To Equity                -67'651   -11'456    -4'317      21'286     144'863      -25'835      -3'885
Free Cash Flow per Share                  33.69     24.44    -37.16       -2.90       12.33        -2.65       18.16       -26.77       -25.48    -11.55




                                                               Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/02    12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11   12/12       12/13E       12/14E       12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                       24.9x       13.5x       11.8x         9.0x     1'870.4x                   4.6x     7.2x                11.8x         7.1x         5.0x
  EV to EBIT
  EV to EBITDA
  Price to Sales                       0.2x     0.5x     0.6x       0.9x         0.8x        0.6x         0.2x        0.2x        0.3x    0.2x    0.8x         0.7x         0.7x         0.6x
  Price to Book                        0.5x     1.0x     0.9x       1.3x         1.3x        1.1x         0.5x        0.8x        0.6x    0.3x    0.4x         0.3x         0.3x         0.3x
  Dividend Yield                      1.3%     0.0%     1.6%       1.9%         2.6%        3.8%         0.0%        0.0%        0.0%    0.0%                 0.3%         2.4%         3.8%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin
  EBITDA Margin                                                                                                                                          -            -            -
  Operating Margin                   -13.1%     5.2%   12.4%      21.0%        27.2%       26.8%        -5.5%      -18.7%        9.8%    4.3%    11.9%       14.2%        17.0%        23.3%
  Profit Margin                       -4.8%   -34.9%    5.4%      15.9%        17.0%       20.7%         0.0%      -37.1%       10.4%    5.9%     0.1%        5.6%         9.8%        14.3%
  Return on Assets                    -0.1%    -0.6%    0.1%       0.3%         0.3%        0.3%         0.0%       -0.6%        0.2%    0.1%     0.0%        0.1%         0.2%         0.2%
  Return on Equity                    -2.9%   -25.9%    3.8%      10.4%        11.9%       13.1%         0.0%      -48.6%       14.6%    4.0%     0.0%        1.9%         3.5%         5.1%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio
  Quick Ratio
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)
  Tot Debt/Capital                     0.96     0.95    0.95        0.95        0.96         0.96        0.94        0.93        0.91     0.91
  Tot Debt/Equity                     21.54    18.31   19.19       21.21       24.92        21.85       15.99       12.79       10.61     9.99

Others
  Asset Turnover                       0.05     0.04    0.04        0.04        0.05         0.04        0.04         0.03       0.03     0.03    0.02
  Accounts Receivable Turnover
  Accounts Payable Turnover
  Inventory Turnover

  Effective Tax Rate                                   44.3%      24.3%        24.8%       23.2%                                                 88.0%




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                                             DEUTSCHE BANK-       DEUTSCHE                                                                      IKB DEUT
                                         COMMERZBANK                                                UBS AG-REG       CREDIT SUISS-REG CREDIT AGRICOLE                             SOC GENERALE        BNP PARIBAS         AAREAL BANK AG     UNICREDIT SPA       COMDIRECT BANK      NATIXIS          DEUTSCHE BOERSE INTESA SANPAOLO
                                                                   RG             POSTBAN                                                                       INDBANK

Latest Fiscal Year:                            12/2012              12/2012           12/2011            12/2012             12/2012            12/2012              03/2012            12/2012              12/2012             12/2012           12/2011              12/2012         12/2012               12/2012        12/2012
52-Week High                                        2.00               39.58             35.30              16.39               27.85                8.00                 0.72             34.40                47.92               18.49               4.88                 8.90            3.69                52.30            1.59
52-Week High Date                            19.03.2012           19.03.2012        18.02.2013         25.01.2013          07.02.2013         20.02.2013           07.11.2012         14.01.2013           29.01.2013          20.02.2013        30.01.2013           27.03.2012      18.02.2013            25.02.2013     16.03.2012
52-Week Low                                         1.12               22.11             26.83                9.69              15.97                2.84                 0.18             15.10                24.54               11.42               2.25                 6.73            1.76                36.05            0.85
52-Week Low Date                             23.07.2012           26.07.2012        23.07.2012         24.07.2012          03.08.2012         01.06.2012           18.07.2012         18.05.2012           30.05.2012          04.06.2012        23.07.2012           07.06.2012      24.07.2012            04.06.2012     23.07.2012
Daily Volume                                 28'766'124              895'052             2'980         11'343'526           4'013'246          1'278'999                     0           573'381              532'412              28'687        25'115'807                8'041         850'478               113'905     41'004'664
  Current Price (3/dd/yy)                          1.18               34.39             32.27              15.45               26.88                7.27                 0.43             30.51                44.29               18.14               3.88                 8.36               3.29             51.13            1.25
  52-Week High % Change                          -40.7%              -13.1%              -8.6%               -5.7%              -3.5%               -9.0%             -39.6%             -11.3%                 -7.6%              -1.9%             -20.5%                -6.1%          -10.9%                 -2.2%         -21.2%
  52-Week Low % Change                             5.9%               55.5%             20.3%               59.5%              68.3%              156.0%              141.1%             102.0%                80.5%               58.8%              72.1%               24.3%            86.9%                41.8%           46.3%
Total Common Shares (M)                         5'829.5               929.0             218.8             3'747.4            1'292.7             2'490.7               633.4              754.0              1'240.1                59.9            2'930.0               141.2          3'079.4                183.4        16'434.0
  Market Capitalization                        6'896.3             31'960.8           7'059.6           59'273.4           35'503.9            18'165.6                274.9           23'802.3            55'013.6              1'085.8          22'473.8              1'180.5        10'153.6               9'868.1       20'349.8
Total Debt                                   247'823.0            284'516.0          38'189.0          267'401.0           330'510.0          936'095.0             16'516.7          740'837.0          1'012'615.0            27'489.0          334'658.3                 1.9        251'200.0              1'775.4       114'813.0
Preferred Stock                                2'376.0                  -                 -                  -                   -              2'104.0                  -              5'270.0              7'241.0               300.0                -                   -                -                    -               -
Minority Interest                                858.0              1'270.0               4.0            4'353.0             6'786.0            5'505.0                  -              4'288.0              8'536.0               243.0            3'318.2                 -              500.0                212.6           586.0
Cash and Equivalents                          42'259.0            177'928.0          23'974.0           66'383.0            63'708.0          428'281.0                 19.1          110'225.0            139'568.0               588.0           56'215.5               551.8         34'700.0              1'223.5        39'926.0
   Enterprise Value                                      -                    -                 -      264'644.4                      -                   -         15'222.1                      -                   -         26'114.8                     -            630.6                   -         10'937.0                   -
                                                                                                                                                                Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY         9'855.0             33'582.0           8'015.0           37'754.0            38'313.0            39'785.0              1'633.8          43'733.0             97'525.0             1'347.0           41'968.2               566.1          6'264.0              2'209.0        17'813.0
                                  LTM         17'595.0             47'151.0          10'204.0           37'758.0            38'313.0                    -             1'891.3                  -            97'525.0             1'263.0           26'215.4               566.1          6'264.0              2'143.5        17'685.0
                                 CY+1          9'945.4             33'832.3           4'002.0           26'694.4            26'555.5            17'385.2                     -         23'928.8             40'090.3               673.0           25'442.2               326.4          6'836.9              2'150.9        16'777.4
                                 CY+2         10'305.4             34'823.9           4'036.0           27'388.4            27'486.4            17'979.9                221.0          24'751.5             41'256.8               710.0           24'912.8               346.5          7'211.5              2'263.7        17'212.7
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY                 -                    -                 -              6.9x                     -                  -                9.3x                  -                    -              19.3x                  -                 1.0x               -                  4.1x              -
                                  LTM                  -                    -                 -              6.9x                     -                  -                8.0x                  -                    -              20.6x                  -                 1.0x               -                  4.1x              -
                                 CY+1                  -                2.0x                  -                  -               35.0x              -1.0x                     -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -                  5.0x              -
                                 CY+2                  -                2.0x                  -                  -               33.8x              -0.9x                     -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -                  4.7x              -
EBITDA                             LFY                 -                    -                 -         15'529.0                      -                  -            1'108.8                   -                    -             787.0                   -              233.6                 -             1'229.4                -
                                  LTM                 -                    -                 -          15'530.0                     -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -              1'108.5               -
                                 CY+1                 -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -              1'151.6               -
                                 CY+2                 -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -              1'258.5               -
EV/EBITDA                          LFY                 -                    -                 -             16.7x                     -                  -               13.7x                  -                    -              33.0x                  -                 2.4x               -                  7.4x              -
                                  LTM                  -                    -                 -             16.7x                     -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -                  8.2x              -
                                 CY+1                  -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -                  9.4x              -
                                 CY+2                  -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -                  8.4x              -
EPS                                LFY             0.34                 3.18              0.51               0.52                 0.77              -0.14                -0.82              4.02                 5.47                1.75             -0.03                 0.52            0.27                  4.54           0.10
                                  LTM              0.19                 0.68              1.98              -0.67                 0.84              -2.31                -0.45              0.95                 5.33                1.75             -2.50                 0.52            0.27                  3.44           0.13
                                 CY+1             0.10                 3.96              1.66               0.91                 2.66               0.99                     -             3.60                 5.10                1.71              0.14                 0.45            0.32                  3.86           0.12
                                 CY+2             0.17                 5.10              1.69               1.20                 3.14               1.23                (0.17)             4.32                 5.77                2.21              0.27                 0.52            0.37                  4.30           0.16
P/E                                LFY             6.2x                50.6x             16.3x                   -               32.0x                   -                    -            32.0x                 8.3x               10.3x                  -               16.1x           12.2x                 14.9x           9.6x
                                  LTM              3.4x                 9.0x             16.3x              30.2x                12.1x              17.7x                     -            11.1x                 7.9x               10.3x                  -               16.1x           12.0x                 15.2x          13.7x
                                 CY+1             11.8x                 8.7x             19.5x              17.0x                10.1x               7.3x                     -             8.5x                 8.7x               10.6x             27.1x                18.4x           10.3x                 13.2x          10.8x
                                 CY+2              7.1x                 6.7x             19.1x              12.9x                 8.6x               5.9x                     -             7.1x                 7.7x                8.2x             14.4x                16.0x            8.8x                 11.9x           8.1x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year          (54.1%)              (36.2%)            (5.6%)             (7.6%)             (10.3%)            (14.1%)              (34.3%)             (9.9%)               37.3%                     -            1.8%                (0.6%)         (51.9%)                (4.3%)        (29.5%)
                                5 Year          (13.8%)               (5.8%)            (9.6%)           (10.1%)                30.2%                    -                    -                 -              11.4%             (13.3%)              1.7%                  8.2%         (10.2%)                (6.8%)        (11.8%)
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year                 -                    -                 -          (11.1%)                      -                  -            (39.1%)                   -                    -                   -                 -             (11.0%)                -                     -              -
                                5 Year                 -                    -                 -          (31.3%)                      -                  -            (20.8%)                   -                    -           (12.2%)                   -              (1.8%)                -                 1.8%               -
EBITDA Margin                     LTM                  -                    -                 -            41.1%                      -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -               50.1%                -
                                 CY+1                  -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -               53.5%                -
                                 CY+2                  -                    -                 -                  -                    -                  -                    -                 -                    -                   -                 -                     -              -               55.6%                -
                                                                                                                                                      Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                              0.0%                0.0%            669.4%             582.6%              927.6%            2488.1%              3888.1%            1663.3%              1287.6%             1690.6%             650.1%                 0.3%         1288.2%               60.1%          231.4%
Total Debt / Capital %                            90.9%               83.9%             87.0%              84.2%               88.6%              95.4%                97.5%              93.2%                91.5%               92.7%              85.9%                 0.3%           92.6%               35.9%           84.8%
Total Debt / EBITDA                                    -                   -                 -            17.218x                   -                  -                    -                  -                    -                   -                  -                    -               -              1.317x               -
Net Debt / EBITDA                                      -                   -                 -            10.520x                   -                  -                    -                  -                    -                   -                  -                    -               -              0.775x               -
EBITDA / Int. Expense                                  -                   -                 -                  -                   -                  -                    -                  -                    -                   -                  -                    -               -             14.082x               -
                                                                                                                                                              Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                             A *-                    A+                NR                  A                    A                 A                     -                 A                   A+                    -             BBB+                      -             A                    AA           BBB+
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                    07.02.2013           25.01.2012        04.01.2013         29.11.2011          19.12.2008         23.01.2012                     -        23.01.2012           25.10.2012                    -       10.02.2012                      -    23.01.2012            13.02.2012     10.02.2012
Moody's LT Credit Rating                            A3                   A2                A2                 A2                (P)A2                A2                   NR                 A2                   A2                    -             Baa2                      -            A2                    WR           Baa2
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                06.06.2012           21.06.2012        22.06.2012         21.06.2012          21.06.2012         21.06.2012           12.09.2012         21.06.2012           21.06.2012                    -       16.07.2012                      -    15.06.2012            17.05.2006     16.07.2012



                                                                                                                                   Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial Analysis - Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail an…

  • 1. 15.03.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Ticker: CBK GY Commerzbank AG Benchmark: Commerzbank AG attracts deposits and offers retail and commercial banking services. Currency: Xetra: CBK, Currency: EUR DAX INDEX (DAX) The Bank offers mortgage loans, securities brokerage and asset management services, private banking, foreign exchange, and treasury services worldwide. Sector: Financials Industry: Commercial Banks Year: Telephone 49-69-136-20 Revenue (M) 9'855 Business Segments in EUR Sales (M) Geographic Segments in EUR Sales (M) Website www.commerzbank.de/ No of Employees 53'798 Private and Business Customers 3350 Germany 1 Address Kaiserplatz Frankfurt am Main, 60261 Germany Mittelstand - Corporate Banking 3016 Rest of Europe Share Price Performance in EUR Corporates & Markets 1596 America Price 1.18 1M Return -20.7% Central and Eastern Europe 818 Asia 52 Week High 2.00 6M Return -25.8% Others and Consolidation 680 Rest of the World 52 Week Low 1.12 52 Wk Return -38.8% Asset Based Finance 225 52 Wk Beta 1.58 YTD Return -17.5% Portfolio Restructuring Unit 216 Credit Ratings Bloomberg HY4 2%2% S&P A *- Date 07.02.2013 Outlook - 7% Moody's A3 Date 06.06.2012 Outlook NEG Fitch A+ Date 09.04.2009 Outlook STABLE 8% 35% Valuation Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E P/E - 4.6x 7.2x - 11.8x 7.1x 5.0x 16% EV/EBIT - - - - - - - EV/EBITDA - - - - - - - P/S 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x P/B 0.8x 0.6x 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x Div Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0.3% 2.4% 3.8% 30% 100% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Private and Business Customers Gross Margin - - - - - - - Mittelstand - Corporate Banking EBITDA Margin - - - - - - - Corporates & Markets Operating Margin -18.7 9.8 4.3 11.9 14.2 17.0 23.3 Central and Eastern Europe Profit Margin -37.1 10.4 5.9 0.1 5.6 9.8 14.3 Germany Others and Consolidation Return on Assets -0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 Return on Equity -48.6 14.6 4.0 0.0 1.9 3.5 5.1 Asset Based Finance Portfolio Restructuring Unit Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio - - - - Current Capitalization in EUR Quick Ratio - - - - Common Shares Outstanding (M) 5829.5 EBIT/Interest - - - - Market Capitalization (M) 6896.3 Tot Debt/Capital 0.9 0.9 0.9 - Cash and ST Investments (M) 121104.0 Tot Debt/Equity 12.8 10.6 10.0 - Total Debt (M) 225254.0 Eff Tax Rate % - - - 88.0 Preferred Equity (M) 2376.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 858.0 Enterprise Value (M) 114280.3 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings Commerzbank AG Target price in EUR Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 4 3 100% 3 2 29% 29% 28% 26% 29% 80% 37% 42% 44% 44% 44% 44% 50% 2 3 1 60% 2 42% 44% 40% 1 43% 43% 2 40% 49% 0 44% 41% Morgan Stanley Barclays Bankhaus Metzler Kepler Capital Markets RBC Capital Markets Main First Bank AG Equinet Institutional S&P Capital IQ CA Cheuvreux Natixis Credit Suisse JPMorgan Macquarie Oddo & Cie Exane BNP Paribas Nord/LB DZ Bank AG Grupo Santander Nomura Societe Generale M.M. Warburg Investment HSBC Mediobanca SpA EVA Dimensions AlphaValue Berenberg Bank Goldman Sachs Hamburger Sparkasse Independent Research GmbH Deutsche Bank Landesbank Baden- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 44% 44% 44% 35% Services(ESN) 1 Wuerttemberg 20% Research 29% 29% 31% 29% 31% 1 14% 14% 11% 11% 12% 15% 15% 0% 0 mars.12 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 28-Feb-13 15% 35% 50% 15-Mar-13 1.18 1.36 DZ Bank AG CHRISTOPH BAST sell 1.00 15-Mar-13 31-Jan-13 15% 41% 44% 14-Mar-13 1.20 1.37 Barclays KIRI VIJAYARAJAH underweight 1.10 15-Mar-13 31-Dec-12 12% 44% 44% 13-Mar-13 1.26 1.43 Grupo Santander TANIA GOLD underweight 1.15 14-Mar-13 30-Nov-12 11% 44% 44% 12-Mar-13 1.40 1.50 Morgan Stanley FRANCESCA TONDI Underwt/In-Line 1.10 14-Mar-13 31-Oct-12 11% 44% 44% 11-Mar-13 1.44 1.50 Goldman Sachs MARTIN LEITGEB neutral/neutral 1.55 14-Mar-13 28-Sep-12 14% 44% 42% 8-Mar-13 1.45 1.50 RBC Capital Markets ANKE REINGEN underperform 1.20 14-Mar-13 31-Aug-12 14% 49% 37% 7-Mar-13 1.42 1.50 Credit Suisse MAXENCE LE GOUVELLO outperform 2.00 14-Mar-13 31-Jul-12 31% 40% 29% 6-Mar-13 1.43 1.50 JPMorgan JAIME BECERRIL neutral 1.02 14-Mar-13 29-Jun-12 29% 44% 26% 5-Mar-13 1.41 1.50 Macquarie THOMAS STOEGNER neutral 1.20 14-Mar-13 31-May-12 31% 42% 28% 4-Mar-13 1.40 1.50 Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg INGO FROMMEN hold 1.30 14-Mar-13 30-Apr-12 29% 43% 29% 1-Mar-13 1.40 1.51 Independent Research GmbH STEFAN BONGARDT sell 1.10 14-Mar-13 30-Mar-12 29% 43% 29% 28-Feb-13 1.41 1.51 Oddo & Cie JEAN SASSUS reduce 1.40 14-Mar-13 27-Feb-13 1.42 1.50 Bankhaus Metzler GUIDO HOYMANN sell 1.30 14-Mar-13 26-Feb-13 1.40 1.50 Exane BNP Paribas GUILLAUME TIBERGHIEN underperform 1.30 14-Mar-13 25-Feb-13 1.45 1.50 Nord/LB MICHAEL SEUFERT hold 1.25 13-Mar-13 22-Feb-13 1.41 1.50 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods RONNY REHN underperform 1.20 13-Mar-13 21-Feb-13 1.43 1.50 Kepler Capital Markets DIRK BECKER reduce 0.70 13-Mar-13 20-Feb-13 1.47 1.50 Nomura OMAR KEENAN reduce 1.50 13-Mar-13 19-Feb-13 1.51 1.50 Equinet Institutional Services(ESN) PHILIPP HAESSLER sell 1.00 13-Mar-13 18-Feb-13 1.53 1.50 S&P Capital IQ FRANK BRADEN hold 1.55 13-Mar-13 15-Feb-13 1.49 1.48 Main First Bank AG KILIAN MAIER underperform 1.20 13-Mar-13 14-Feb-13 1.47 1.49 AlphaValue DIETER HEIN add 1.65 7-Mar-13 13-Feb-13 1.50 1.49 Societe Generale PHILIP RICHARDS sell 1.10 5-Mar-13 12-Feb-13 1.51 1.49 Hamburger Sparkasse CHRISTIAN HAMANN sell 15-Feb-13 11-Feb-13 1.51 1.49 M.M. Warburg Investment Research ANDREAS PLAESIER hold 1.45 15-Feb-13 8-Feb-13 1.49 1.49 Berenberg Bank NICK ANDERSON sell 1.00 15-Feb-13 7-Feb-13 1.46 1.49 HSBC JOHANNES THORMANN overweight 1.90 31-Jan-13 6-Feb-13 1.49 1.49 EVA Dimensions AUSTIN BURKETT underweight 17-Jan-13 5-Feb-13 1.51 1.49 Deutsche Bank ALEXANDER HENDRICKS hold 1.50 1-Nov-12 4-Feb-13 1.52 1.49 CA Cheuvreux CYRIL MEILLAND underperform 1.30 10-Aug-12 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 15.03.2013 Commerzbank AG Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 0% Shares Outstanding (M) 5829.5 Germany 81.67% Float 74.9% United States 14.08% 1% 1%1% 0% 1% 1% Short Interest (M) Luxembourg 1.01% 38% Short Interest as % of Float France 0.80% 14% Days to Cover Shorts Britain 0.54% Institutional Ownership 37.91% Switzerland 0.51% Retail Ownership 62.09% Ireland 0.38% 62% Insider Ownership 0.00% Others 1.01% Institutional Ownership Distribution 81% Government 65.95% Investment Advisor 22.97% Insurance Company 7.19% Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership Mutual Fund Manager 3.66% Germany United States Luxembourg France Pricing data is in EUR Others 0.23% Britain Switzerland Ireland Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF 1'457'378'418 0 1'724'078'668 25.00% 31.01.2013 Research GERMANY 4% 0% BLACKROCK 313'123'539 90'512 370'425'147 5.37% 13.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES 7% ALLIANZ SE 158'754'249 0 187'806'277 2.72% 07.03.2012 Research GERMANY VANGUARD GROUP INC 68'996'872 2'722'059 81'623'300 1.18% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES MARSHALL WACE LLP -50'133'818 -9'910'174 -59'308'307 -0.86% 13.03.2013 Short BRITAIN FRANKFURT TRUST INVE 22'030'550 0 26'062'141 0.38% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY UNION INVESTMENT GMB 21'236'463 2'131'853 25'122'736 0.36% 28.09.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY 23% THRIVENT FINANCIAL F 11'346'050 -67'100 13'422'377 0.19% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES 66% DEUTSCHE BANK AG 8'132'683 2'552'512 9'620'964 0.14% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG GERMANY ADIG INVESTMENT 7'263'550 0 8'592'780 0.12% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY DEKA INVESTMENT GMBH 6'635'014 -2'979'650 7'849'222 0.11% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY ETFLAB INVESTMENT GM 6'242'873 0 7'385'319 0.11% 14.03.2013 MF-AGG GERMANY CREDIT SUISSE ASSET 5'847'747 286'355 6'917'885 0.10% 28.12.2012 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND VERITAS SG INVESTMEN 5'221'900 -864'000 6'177'508 0.09% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY Government Investment Advisor Insurance Company Mutual Fund Manager Others COMMERZBANK AG 5'113'429 0 6'049'187 0.09% 31.12.2011 Co File GERMANY STATE STREET BANQUE 4'692'099 -91'050 5'550'753 0.08% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG FRANCE DWS INVESTMENT S A 4'627'388 826'488 5'474'200 0.08% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG FMR LLC 4'282'228 -7'720'168 5'065'876 0.07% 31.01.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES DIMENSIONAL FUND ADV 3'348'946 0 3'961'803 0.06% 31.07.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES UNIVERSAL INVESTMENT 3'339'250 198'105 3'950'333 0.06% 02.10.2012 MF-AGG GERMANY Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV Commerzbank AG Financial information is in EUR (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 21'148 15'635 15'115 16'666 24'340 27'339 24'181 25'393 25'027 21'462 9'855 9'945 10'305 10'679 - Cost of Goods Sold Gross Income - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 5'451 4'845 4'746 4'808 5'425 5'611 5'418 9'511 9'335 8'428 7'025 (Research & Dev Costs) Operating Income -819 346 835 1'535 2'559 2'477 -418 -2'285 1'351 465 1'170 1'410 1'748 2'485 - Interest Expense - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -447 2'326 39 -145 163 -28 -15 2'374 -2 -42 265 Pretax Income -372 -1'980 796 1'680 2'396 2'505 -403 -4'659 1'353 507 905 937 1'564 2'021 - Income Tax Expense -103 249 353 409 595 580 -465 -26 -136 -240 796 Income Before XO Items -269 -2'229 443 1'271 1'801 1'925 62 -4'633 1'489 747 109 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Minority Interests 29 91 81 106 197 8 59 -96 59 109 103 Diluted EPS Before XO Items 1.96 2.34 0.00 (3.53) 0.97 0.18 0.18 Net Income Adjusted* -298 -2'320 393 1'165 1'597 1'917 22 -2'865 1'405 1'409 986 555 1'014 1'527 EPS Adjusted (0.45) (3.41) 0.53 1.55 1.95 2.34 0.02 (2.22) 0.95 0.40 0.18 0.10 0.17 0.24 Dividends Per Share 0.08 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.05 Payout Ratio % 41.4 28.2 30.7 34.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.17 0.19 Total Shares Outstanding 677 746 742 818 820 820 901 1'473 1'463 5'113 5'830 Diluted Shares Outstanding 666 679 740 754 819 819 845 1'288 1'471 3'460 5'612 EBITDA *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items 6'612 5'711 3'634 5'465 5'129 4'962 6'566 10'329 8'053 6'075 + Short Term Investments 121'834 91'563 175'219 189'323 99'340 114'154 136'856 239'655 183'515 165'993 + Accounts & Notes Receivable + Inventories + Other Current Assets Total Long-Term Assets + Long Term Investments 80'974 85'542 2'379 3'643 121'469 115'595 108'867 111'246 101'210 85'038 Gross Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation + Net Fixed Assets 2'505 2'063 1'766 1'525 1'388 1'293 1'240 1'779 1'590 1'399 + Other Long Term Assets 12'385 11'786 9'879 9'807 18'670 22'958 23'883 22'211 21'560 18'882 Total Current Liabilities + Accounts Payable + Short Term Borrowings 140'750 110'383 132'391 151'388 131'769 126'081 128'656 142'123 110'629 72'740 + Other Short Term Liabilities 92'497 74'981 89'091 30'573 78'752 91'925 121'407 224'971 172'280 158'489 Total Long Term Liabilities + Long Term Borrowings 76'203 78'269 79'165 83'575 197'120 179'601 149'649 148'663 131'428 127'889 + Other Long Term Borrowings 6'914 7'648 8'143 8'335 3'662 4'001 4'369 5'596 4'461 3'513 Total Liabilities 412'064 371'281 413'854 431'211 593'020 600'342 605'292 817'527 725'641 636'960 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 8'200 17'178 17'178 2'687 2'376 + Minority Interest 1'262 1'213 1'269 947 1'023 997 1'877 570 785 699 858 + Share Capital & APIC 7'541 6'020 6'027 7'391 7'381 7'417 7'276 4'405 4'349 16'271 17'509 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 1'267 3'071 3'727 5'312 6'854 7'718 2'551 4'423 6'346 5'146 4'496 Total Shareholders Equity 10'070 10'304 11'023 13'650 15'258 16'132 19'904 26'576 28'658 24'803 25'239 Total Liabilities & Equity 422'134 381'585 424'877 444'861 608'278 616'474 625'196 844'103 754'299 661'763 Book Value Per Share 13.02 12.19 13.15 15.53 17.36 18.46 10.90 5.99 7.31 4.19 3.77 4.15 4.44 4.58 Tangible Book Value Per Share 11.32 11.11 12.07 14.34 15.31 16.91 9.42 3.81 5.19 3.59 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income -298 -2'320 362 1'165 1'604 1'917 3 -4'537 1'430 638 260 922 1'353 + Depreciation & Amortization 1'114 929 1'551 1'288 4'093 -156 520 743 4'101 4'006 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments 615 1'293 1'843 -3'161 1'403 -2'289 -424 6'542 2'685 -11'771 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital 21'741 17'010 -30'763 -1'050 4'212 -1'372 15'863 -32'794 -45'202 -32'544 Cash From Operating Activities 23'172 16'912 -27'007 -1'758 11'312 -1'900 15'962 -30'046 -36'986 -39'671 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 1'955 424 285 66 334 467 293 663 187 74 + Capital Expenditures -738 -317 -505 -429 -1'212 -275 -624 -4'426 -492 -296 + Increase in Investments -47'039 -52'351 -45'806 -57'560 -104'227 -385 -4 -5'240 -504 -335 + Decrease in Investments 65'905 48'593 39'720 44'045 55'894 2'874 2'999 858 15'274 17'783 + Other Investing Activities -238 68 -3 333 3'579 -71 2'453 298 83 Cash From Investing Activities 91'710 6'493 -3'496 -16'942 -186'429 7'743 1'854 -77'027 39'374 49'682 + Dividends Paid -217 -54 0 -150 -328 -493 -657 + Change in Short Term Borrowings 5'898 -19'735 20'181 14'470 -4'075 -705 3'372 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 0 0 3'258 9'670 138'504 8'734 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -97'938 -8'740 -529 -733 -23'422 -39'822 + Increase in Capital Stocks 0 831 1 1'364 1'079 2'528 + Decrease in Capital Stocks -82 0 -10 0 -56 -2'774 + Other Financing Activities -1'181 -908 -13 37 -3 -6 -129 13'893 -2'817 -1'732 Cash From Financing Activities -114'218 -24'306 27'962 22'440 172'456 -6'653 -16'407 110'836 -4'664 -11'989 Net Changes in Cash 664 -901 -2'541 3'740 -2'661 -810 1'409 3'763 -2'276 -1'978 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 22'434 16'595 -27'512 -2'187 10'100 -2'175 15'338 -34'472 -37'478 -39'967 Free Cash Flow To Firm Free Cash Flow To Equity -67'651 -11'456 -4'317 21'286 144'863 -25'835 -3'885 Free Cash Flow per Share 33.69 24.44 -37.16 -2.90 12.33 -2.65 18.16 -26.77 -25.48 -11.55 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 24.9x 13.5x 11.8x 9.0x 1'870.4x 4.6x 7.2x 11.8x 7.1x 5.0x EV to EBIT EV to EBITDA Price to Sales 0.2x 0.5x 0.6x 0.9x 0.8x 0.6x 0.2x 0.2x 0.3x 0.2x 0.8x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x Price to Book 0.5x 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x 1.3x 1.1x 0.5x 0.8x 0.6x 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x Dividend Yield 1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.4% 3.8% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin EBITDA Margin - - - Operating Margin -13.1% 5.2% 12.4% 21.0% 27.2% 26.8% -5.5% -18.7% 9.8% 4.3% 11.9% 14.2% 17.0% 23.3% Profit Margin -4.8% -34.9% 5.4% 15.9% 17.0% 20.7% 0.0% -37.1% 10.4% 5.9% 0.1% 5.6% 9.8% 14.3% Return on Assets -0.1% -0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Return on Equity -2.9% -25.9% 3.8% 10.4% 11.9% 13.1% 0.0% -48.6% 14.6% 4.0% 0.0% 1.9% 3.5% 5.1% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) Tot Debt/Capital 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.91 Tot Debt/Equity 21.54 18.31 19.19 21.21 24.92 21.85 15.99 12.79 10.61 9.99 Others Asset Turnover 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 Accounts Receivable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Inventory Turnover Effective Tax Rate 44.3% 24.3% 24.8% 23.2% 88.0% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision DEUTSCHE BANK- DEUTSCHE IKB DEUT COMMERZBANK UBS AG-REG CREDIT SUISS-REG CREDIT AGRICOLE SOC GENERALE BNP PARIBAS AAREAL BANK AG UNICREDIT SPA COMDIRECT BANK NATIXIS DEUTSCHE BOERSE INTESA SANPAOLO RG POSTBAN INDBANK Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 03/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 52-Week High 2.00 39.58 35.30 16.39 27.85 8.00 0.72 34.40 47.92 18.49 4.88 8.90 3.69 52.30 1.59 52-Week High Date 19.03.2012 19.03.2012 18.02.2013 25.01.2013 07.02.2013 20.02.2013 07.11.2012 14.01.2013 29.01.2013 20.02.2013 30.01.2013 27.03.2012 18.02.2013 25.02.2013 16.03.2012 52-Week Low 1.12 22.11 26.83 9.69 15.97 2.84 0.18 15.10 24.54 11.42 2.25 6.73 1.76 36.05 0.85 52-Week Low Date 23.07.2012 26.07.2012 23.07.2012 24.07.2012 03.08.2012 01.06.2012 18.07.2012 18.05.2012 30.05.2012 04.06.2012 23.07.2012 07.06.2012 24.07.2012 04.06.2012 23.07.2012 Daily Volume 28'766'124 895'052 2'980 11'343'526 4'013'246 1'278'999 0 573'381 532'412 28'687 25'115'807 8'041 850'478 113'905 41'004'664 Current Price (3/dd/yy) 1.18 34.39 32.27 15.45 26.88 7.27 0.43 30.51 44.29 18.14 3.88 8.36 3.29 51.13 1.25 52-Week High % Change -40.7% -13.1% -8.6% -5.7% -3.5% -9.0% -39.6% -11.3% -7.6% -1.9% -20.5% -6.1% -10.9% -2.2% -21.2% 52-Week Low % Change 5.9% 55.5% 20.3% 59.5% 68.3% 156.0% 141.1% 102.0% 80.5% 58.8% 72.1% 24.3% 86.9% 41.8% 46.3% Total Common Shares (M) 5'829.5 929.0 218.8 3'747.4 1'292.7 2'490.7 633.4 754.0 1'240.1 59.9 2'930.0 141.2 3'079.4 183.4 16'434.0 Market Capitalization 6'896.3 31'960.8 7'059.6 59'273.4 35'503.9 18'165.6 274.9 23'802.3 55'013.6 1'085.8 22'473.8 1'180.5 10'153.6 9'868.1 20'349.8 Total Debt 247'823.0 284'516.0 38'189.0 267'401.0 330'510.0 936'095.0 16'516.7 740'837.0 1'012'615.0 27'489.0 334'658.3 1.9 251'200.0 1'775.4 114'813.0 Preferred Stock 2'376.0 - - - - 2'104.0 - 5'270.0 7'241.0 300.0 - - - - - Minority Interest 858.0 1'270.0 4.0 4'353.0 6'786.0 5'505.0 - 4'288.0 8'536.0 243.0 3'318.2 - 500.0 212.6 586.0 Cash and Equivalents 42'259.0 177'928.0 23'974.0 66'383.0 63'708.0 428'281.0 19.1 110'225.0 139'568.0 588.0 56'215.5 551.8 34'700.0 1'223.5 39'926.0 Enterprise Value - - - 264'644.4 - - 15'222.1 - - 26'114.8 - 630.6 - 10'937.0 - Valuation Total Revenue LFY 9'855.0 33'582.0 8'015.0 37'754.0 38'313.0 39'785.0 1'633.8 43'733.0 97'525.0 1'347.0 41'968.2 566.1 6'264.0 2'209.0 17'813.0 LTM 17'595.0 47'151.0 10'204.0 37'758.0 38'313.0 - 1'891.3 - 97'525.0 1'263.0 26'215.4 566.1 6'264.0 2'143.5 17'685.0 CY+1 9'945.4 33'832.3 4'002.0 26'694.4 26'555.5 17'385.2 - 23'928.8 40'090.3 673.0 25'442.2 326.4 6'836.9 2'150.9 16'777.4 CY+2 10'305.4 34'823.9 4'036.0 27'388.4 27'486.4 17'979.9 221.0 24'751.5 41'256.8 710.0 24'912.8 346.5 7'211.5 2'263.7 17'212.7 EV/Total Revenue LFY - - - 6.9x - - 9.3x - - 19.3x - 1.0x - 4.1x - LTM - - - 6.9x - - 8.0x - - 20.6x - 1.0x - 4.1x - CY+1 - 2.0x - - 35.0x -1.0x - - - - - - - 5.0x - CY+2 - 2.0x - - 33.8x -0.9x - - - - - - - 4.7x - EBITDA LFY - - - 15'529.0 - - 1'108.8 - - 787.0 - 233.6 - 1'229.4 - LTM - - - 15'530.0 - - - - - - - - - 1'108.5 - CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1'151.6 - CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1'258.5 - EV/EBITDA LFY - - - 16.7x - - 13.7x - - 33.0x - 2.4x - 7.4x - LTM - - - 16.7x - - - - - - - - - 8.2x - CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9.4x - CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8.4x - EPS LFY 0.34 3.18 0.51 0.52 0.77 -0.14 -0.82 4.02 5.47 1.75 -0.03 0.52 0.27 4.54 0.10 LTM 0.19 0.68 1.98 -0.67 0.84 -2.31 -0.45 0.95 5.33 1.75 -2.50 0.52 0.27 3.44 0.13 CY+1 0.10 3.96 1.66 0.91 2.66 0.99 - 3.60 5.10 1.71 0.14 0.45 0.32 3.86 0.12 CY+2 0.17 5.10 1.69 1.20 3.14 1.23 (0.17) 4.32 5.77 2.21 0.27 0.52 0.37 4.30 0.16 P/E LFY 6.2x 50.6x 16.3x - 32.0x - - 32.0x 8.3x 10.3x - 16.1x 12.2x 14.9x 9.6x LTM 3.4x 9.0x 16.3x 30.2x 12.1x 17.7x - 11.1x 7.9x 10.3x - 16.1x 12.0x 15.2x 13.7x CY+1 11.8x 8.7x 19.5x 17.0x 10.1x 7.3x - 8.5x 8.7x 10.6x 27.1x 18.4x 10.3x 13.2x 10.8x CY+2 7.1x 6.7x 19.1x 12.9x 8.6x 5.9x - 7.1x 7.7x 8.2x 14.4x 16.0x 8.8x 11.9x 8.1x Revenue Growth 1 Year (54.1%) (36.2%) (5.6%) (7.6%) (10.3%) (14.1%) (34.3%) (9.9%) 37.3% - 1.8% (0.6%) (51.9%) (4.3%) (29.5%) 5 Year (13.8%) (5.8%) (9.6%) (10.1%) 30.2% - - - 11.4% (13.3%) 1.7% 8.2% (10.2%) (6.8%) (11.8%) EBITDA Growth 1 Year - - - (11.1%) - - (39.1%) - - - - (11.0%) - - - 5 Year - - - (31.3%) - - (20.8%) - - (12.2%) - (1.8%) - 1.8% - EBITDA Margin LTM - - - 41.1% - - - - - - - - - 50.1% - CY+1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 53.5% - CY+2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 55.6% - Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 0.0% 0.0% 669.4% 582.6% 927.6% 2488.1% 3888.1% 1663.3% 1287.6% 1690.6% 650.1% 0.3% 1288.2% 60.1% 231.4% Total Debt / Capital % 90.9% 83.9% 87.0% 84.2% 88.6% 95.4% 97.5% 93.2% 91.5% 92.7% 85.9% 0.3% 92.6% 35.9% 84.8% Total Debt / EBITDA - - - 17.218x - - - - - - - - - 1.317x - Net Debt / EBITDA - - - 10.520x - - - - - - - - - 0.775x - EBITDA / Int. Expense - - - - - - - - - - - - - 14.082x - Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating A *- A+ NR A A A - A A+ - BBB+ - A AA BBB+ S&P LT Credit Rating Date 07.02.2013 25.01.2012 04.01.2013 29.11.2011 19.12.2008 23.01.2012 - 23.01.2012 25.10.2012 - 10.02.2012 - 23.01.2012 13.02.2012 10.02.2012 Moody's LT Credit Rating A3 A2 A2 A2 (P)A2 A2 NR A2 A2 - Baa2 - A2 WR Baa2 Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 06.06.2012 21.06.2012 22.06.2012 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 12.09.2012 21.06.2012 21.06.2012 - 16.07.2012 - 15.06.2012 17.05.2006 16.07.2012 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |