1. The role of Europe in
fighting deforestation:
Balancing the risks of
action against the risks of
no action
Frances Seymour
European Parliament
March 1, 2011
2. Presentation outline
Brief introduction to CIFOR
Review of deforestation trends
Reasons for optimism / reasons for
caution
A few examples
Implications for the way forward
Note that the closer you get to the ground,
the more complicated it gets….
4. CIFOR…
• Is an international organization headquartered in Bogor, Indonesia
• Is a member of the CGIAR
• Has as its purpose to conduct research to inform policies and practices
that affect forests in developing countries
• Has a staff of about 200 globally
• Has an annual budget of about $27 million
• Is grateful to the European Commission for significant funding
6. CIFOR’s vision
We envision a world where:
Forests are high on the political
agenda
People recognize the value of forests
for maintaining livelihoods and
ecosystems
Decisions that influence forests and
the people that depend on them are
based on solid science and principles
of good governance, and reflect the
perspectives of developing countries
and forest-dependent people
8. Net change in forest area 2005-2010
(in ha per year)
Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010
9. Trends in extent of forest area
(in millions ha per year)
Source: FAO Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) 2010
10. Deforestation headlines
Forests still being lost at 13 million ha/year, compared to 16
million ha/year 1990-2000 -- deforestation rates have declined
in Brazil and Indonesia, but are still high
Large scale tree-planting efforts, especially in China, drive net
deforestation figures for Asia
Fires and drought have exacerbated forest loss in Australia
12. Reasons for optimism
Deforestation is back on international and national agendas,
getting attention from heads of state to popular media
Possible “perfect storm” of
Public understanding and support
Political will
Sources of finance
13. Reasons for caution
Governance challenges related to
forests are especially severe:
Strong vested interests in
continuing business as usual
Corruption
Vulnerable communities with
weak/contested tenure
Poor data
Weak institutions for managing
money and information
14. The dilemma
Risks of no action:
Loss of political momentum
Business as usual continued
versus
Risks of action:
Subversion of objectives by
vested interests
Unintended negative
consequences for vulnerable
groups
16. Example: VPAs in Central Africa
Great opportunity to leverage interest in EC market access to
promote improved governance forest sector governance
Puts legality and sustainability of timber production on
national agendas
Increases attention to transparency and civil society
participation
17. Risks to VPA implementation (1)
Poor data
CIFOR research (supported by the EC)
revealed significant underestimation
of the absolute and relative size of
the “domestic” timber sector
Vested interests
Government officials benefiting from
irregular payments resist efforts to
legalize the domestic timber sector
Professionalizing –rather than
criminalizing – the domestic timber
sector will be a major challenge
18. Risks to VPA implementation (2)
Vulnerable livelihoods
Some 45,000 people in Cameroon alone
derive income from the domestic timber
sector
Possibility that government law enforcement
efforts to attain legality will focus on “little
guys with chainsaws” rather than “big guys
with bank accounts”
Detailed CIFOR Occasional Papers on Cameroon
and Gabon are in press; papers on Congo,
CAR, DRC, Indonesia, and Ecuador to follow.
This work is supported by the EC Pro-Formal
Project.
19. Example: REDD+ in Indonesia
Letter of Intent with Norway presents great opportunity to
leverage concern about climate change to reduce deforestation
20. Risks to REDD+ implementation (1)
Vested interests
Businesses benefiting from current concession allocation
process resisting proposed moratorium on forest conversion
Poor data
Definition and extent of “degraded” forest at issue
21. Risks to REDD+ implementation (2)
Corruption risks
Systems for ensuring the integrity of
flows of funds and information still
weak
Vulnerable livelihoods
Concern that permitting could have
the effect of displacing local rights
holders
A CIFOR analysis of corruption risks facing
REDD+ in Indonesia is forthcoming in
cooperation with UNODC.
22. Example: Bioenergy
Policies to promote bioenergy
production have the potential to
reduce climate emissions and create
new livelihood opportunities in
developing countries
But CIFOR research (supported by
the EC) suggests that such policies
require complementary actions to:
Protect the livelihoods of customary
landusers
CIFOR Occasional papers and Channel investment away from carbon-rich
policy briefs produced under forest frontiers
Level the playing field for smallholder
the EC-supported Bioenergy,
producers
sustainability, and trade-offs
project
24. (1) Maintain focus on the procedural integrity of
design and implementation
Transparency – e.g., of decision-making to narrow the scope for vested
interests to “hijack” the process
Participation – e.g., across sectors to prevent “concentration of power” in a
single ministry
Independent third-party monitoring – e.g., of permit holders’ performance
to ensure the integrity of reporting
25. (2) Invest in capacity building
CIFOR-FAO survey on forestry research in DRC in 2005 found
less than 10 active researchers in the DRC (a country that
represents 60% of the Congo Basin forests and people) – EC-
supported REAFOR project now addressing
Many gaps remain within forestry sector in and complementary
fields necessary for good governance
26. (3) Invest in research (conflict of interest alert!)
Still many data gaps to be filled
A priori analysis of risks can help anticipate mitigation needs
Need to monitor impacts and understand why they occur
27. (4) Balance risks
Be mindful of the risks of unintended negative consequences,
but don’t lose sight of the countervailing risks of no action
Build and support domestic constituencies for change
Strive for “optimal optimism” about the possibility of
transformation
