1. THE 2012 AMERICAN VALUES SURVEY
How Catholics and the Unaffiliated
Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond
Public Public
Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Religion
Research Daniel Cox, Director of Research
Research
Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate
Institute Institute

2. Survey Methodology
• Fourth annual American Values Survey
• Sample Size: N = 3,003 Americans (MOE = +/- 2.0
percentage points)
• Conducted between September 13 and September 30, 2012
• Bilingual (English and Spanish) telephone interviews (1,201
reached by cell phone)
• Wave one of two-wave study (pre- and post-election)
• Funded by Ford Foundation and the Nathan Cummings
Foundation
The 2012 American Values Survey 2

3. RELIGIOUS CHANGE IN AMERICA
The 2012 American Values Survey 3

4. Changes from Childhood Religion
Childhood Current Net
Affiliation Affiliation Gain/Loss
Catholic 31.4 22.0 -9.4
White Mainline 18.7 14.9 -3.8
Protestant
Black Protestant 9.4 8.5 -0.9
White Evangelical 20.3 19.9 -0.4
Protestant
Other Christian 9.5 10.4 0.9
Non-Christian 3.7 5.7 2
Religious
Unaffiliated 7 18.6 11.6
The 2012 American Values Survey 4

5. Religious Affiliation by Generation
Unaffiliated
18-29 32 9 12 8 10 11 13 6
White Evangelical
Protestant
White Mainline
Protestant
30-49 19 18 14 13 11 8 11 6 White Catholic
Hispanic/Other Catholic
50-64 14 25 15 18 6 10 8 5 Black Protestant
Other Christian
65+ 9 30 20 19 5 6 7 4 Non-Christian Religious
0 20 40 60 80 100
The 2012 American Values Survey 5

6. Reasons for Leaving Childhood Religion
Don't believe in God/Teachings
12
Personal experience/Grew out of it
23
Goes against science and logic
5
Dislike organized religion/Religion
causes problems
5 Hypocritical
2 Judgmental/Controlling
4 Social/Sexuality issues
11 Sex abuse scandal within Catholic
5 Church
Busy/Not interested
No reason/Not sure
8 8
Other/Don't Know
16
The 2012 American Values Survey 6

7. UNDERSTANDING THE
RELIGIOUSLY UNAFFILIATED OR “THE NONES”
Atheists and Agnostics
Seculars
Unattached Believers
The 2012 American Values Survey 7

8. The Three Faces of the Unaffiliated
1
23
Secular
39
Atheist/Agnostic
Unattached Believers
Uncategorized
36
The 2012 American Values Survey 8

9. Religious Beliefs of Unaffiliated
God is a person God is an impersonal force
I do not believe in God Other/Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
Atheist/ Agnostic 6 30 56 8
Secular 30 42 24 4
Unattached Believers 69 26 5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
The 2012 American Values Survey 9

10. Racial/Ethnic Difference among
Unaffiliated Subgroups
White, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Black Other/Mixed Race DK/Refused
Atheist/ Agnostic 76 10 2 10
Secular 64 14 7 10
Unattached Believers 56 12 23 7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
The 2012 American Values Survey 10

11. UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF
AMERICAN CATHOLICS
“Social Justice” vs. “Right to Life” Catholics
The 2012 American Values Survey 11

12. Social Justice vs. Right to Life Orientations
Among Catholics and Former Catholics
Social justice and the obligation to help the poor Issues like abortion and the right to life
80
70 76
60 66
63
60
50 57
52 51
40
40
30 36
31 29
20 27 27
21
10
0
All Catholics Former Catholics who White Catholics Former Hispanic Catholics who
Catholic, now attend monthly Catholic, still Catholics attend weekly or
unaffiliated or less religious more
The 2012 American Values Survey 12

13. Ethnic Complexity among Catholics:
Differences between Whites & Hispanics
White Catholics Hispanic Catholics
70
60
59
50 55
48
40
40
30
20
10
0
Abortion should be Illegal all/most cases Favor life in prison over death penalty
The 2012 American Values Survey 13

14. THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Religion and Voting Coalitions
The 2012 American Values Survey 14

15. Most Important Issues Influencing Vote
Among Likely Voters
Republicans Democrats All Americans
70
60 66
61
50 54
40
30
29
20
18
10 14
8 9 6 4 3 8 2 3 2 1 2 1 3 3 1
0
The Economy Health care National Abortion Immigration Same-sex Other/Don't
security marriage Know/Refused
The 2012 American Values Survey 15

16. Presidential Vote by Religion
Among Likely Voters
Obama Romney
100
97
80
76
73
60
52 49
40 45 47
20 20 22
0 2
White White Catholic Religiously Black
Evangelical Mainline Unaffiliated Protestant
Protestants Protestants
The 2012 American Values Survey 16

17. Religious Voting Coalitions
Among Likely Voters
White Evangelical
Protestant
Obama’s Coalition Romney’s Coalition
White Mainline
23 9 Protestant 8
*2
White Catholic
15 11
37
Hispanic/Other 3
7 Catholic
14
Other Christian 19
18
8
6 Black Protestant 19
Non-Christian
Religious
Unaffiliated
The 2012 American Values Survey 17

18. Complexity of Catholic Voters
By Ethnicity and Gender
Obama Romney
80
70
71
60
50 54 54 54
49 47
40
42 42 42
30
20 23
10
0
All Catholics Hispanic * Women White Men
*Note: Hispanic Catholic results are among registered voters and represent small sample size (n=98).
The 2012 American Values Survey 18

19. Complexity of Catholic Voters
By Religious Orientation and Behavior
Obama Romney Other/DK
100%
90% 47 59 36 67 37
80%
70%
60%
59 60
50%
40% 49
30% 37
20% 27
10%
0%
All Catholic Attend Attend Right to life Social Justice
Voters Weekly/More Monthly/Less (28% of (63% of
(45% of (55% of Voters) voters)
voters) voters)
The 2012 American Values Survey 19

20. CONTRACEPTION AND GENDER ROLES
The 2012 American Values Survey 20

21. Contraception Mandate and Religious
Objections
Religiously affiliated colleges and hospitals should have to provide employees with
no-cost contraception coverage.
Yes, Even if Organization has Religious Objections Yes, Religious Objections Not Specified
56
All Americans
56
57
All Catholics
54
50
White Catholics
45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
The 2012 American Values Survey 21

22. Women and Raising Children
Women are naturally better suited to raise children than men.
Percent who agree
Men Women
80
70
69
60 65
62
50 54 54 52 51
47 48 49
40
30
20
10
0
All Americans 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
The 2012 American Values Survey 22

23. LOOKING AHEAD:
IMPORTANCE OF VOTER ENGAGEMENT
The 2012 American Values Survey 23

24. Voter Engagement
Among Unaffiliated and Catholics
100
20 23
15
17 White evangelical
White mainline
14 White Catholic
50 16
Hispanic/Other Catholic
8
5 Black protestant
8
9 Other Christian
10 Non-Christian
8
6 Unaffiliated
6
19
16
0
All Americans Likely Voters
The 2012 American Values Survey 24

25. The 2012 American Values Survey
How Catholics and the Unaffiliated
Will Shape the 2012 Elections and Beyond
Follow us Online:
www.facebook.com/publicreligion
www.twitter.com/publicreligion
www.publicreligion.org
Public
Religion Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO
Research Daniel Cox, Director of Research
Juhem Navarro-Rivera, Research Associate
Institute