1. The Internet and Democracy
 In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people
predicted that the Internet was going to spread
democracy around the world.
• Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla
and North Korea”
• Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on
Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall”
 Again, these optimistic visions of the future have
failed to materialize.
 But the Internet, together with related
technologies (text messaging etc) has changed
the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces
operate.
 To understand why – need to look at what these
technologies involve.

2. Naïve beginnings
 First flush of enthusiasm about the
Internet.
 Belief that it would spread democratic
values and topple tyrants
(Cyberlibertarianism).
 True not only in developed world but even
more so in developing world.
 The Internet as a force for globalization.
• Spreading Western values
• Spreading the truth/resisting censorship
 Of course, things weren’t as
straightforward for reasons we have
already discussed …

3. Different technologies have
different consequences
 Bringing together some of the themes that
we have discussed in class.
 Internet and related technologies provide
space for different kinds of media.
 These media in turn are more or less
conducive to different kinds of content.
 And this affects how they reshape the
landscape for pro- and anti- democracy
forces.

4. Two ways of promoting democracy
 We should distinguish between two ways
in which the Internet and related
technologies can promote democracy.
• Through providing help to pro-democracy
activists in protests and other actions aimed at
overturning regimes.
• Through promoting civil society which may
indirectly lead to more democracy in the long
run.
 And also should be aware that anti-
democratic forces can use the Internet
too.
• Weakening of civil society in Russia and
elsewhere.

5. Different tools for different
purposes
 Various media (all based on the Internet
or network communication) may have
highly diverse consequences.
 In particular – imply different relationships
between the sender of a
message/webpage/TV spot and the
recipients.
 We can distinguish between one-to-one
forms of communication, one-to-many
forms of communication, and many-to-
many forms of communication.

6. One to One Communication
 Traditional forms of direct communication,
in which one person is communicating with
another (or perhaps with a very small
number of people).
 Traditional forms have included letters,
face-to-face conversations etc.
 Newer forms include much email (personal
email etc).
 But also much instant text messaging.
 Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such
as Twitter.

7. One-to-many
 Involves a single (or small number) of
sources, and many possible recipients.
 Traditional model of TV broadcasting and
newspaper publishing.
 But also applies to many forms of content
on the Internet.
 Standard web pages (of organizations etc)
– designed to be read by many people,
but not modified by them.
 General email blasts (such as much of
what MoveOn does in the US)

8. Many-to-Many
 Traditionally, it has been hard to have
large distributed conversations.
 But blogs provide one example of how this
is changing.
• A vast conversation taking place among large
numbers of people – but organized.
 Also, other new technologies, including
social networking sites (Facebook etc)
have important many-to-many aspects.

9. Technologies and communication
 Some technologies are better equipped to provide
certain kinds of communication and less well
equipped to provide others.
• Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many
communication. Not so good for many-to-many.
• Text messages – like email.
• Web pages – good for one to many communication.
• Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and
(sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill
for one-to-one communication.
• YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication,
and also has some many-to-many applications.

10. Technologies and content
 This goes together with differences in the
kinds of content that different media
favor.
• Instant messages – short punchy messages,
often in jargon. Encourages quick back-and-
forth.
• Email – somewhat longer text based messages
(typically less quick than text messages).
• Blogs – text based communication over period
of hours.
• YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and
upload.

11. Media and political action
 Combination of (a) the nature of the
medium (one to many, one to one etc),
and the kinds of content it favors have
implications for political action.
 Some media are well suited to rapid
organizing.
 Others to slower forms of communication
over days, weeks and perhaps longer.
 Thus – we may expect different electronic
media to have very different consequences
for pro- and anti-democratic forces.

12. Instant text messaging/SMS
 Short simple messages are well suited to the
organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that
converge on a particular place for a particular
purpose.
 Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of
changing circumstances (changed meeting place
etc).
 Thus well suited to the organization of
spontaneous demonstrations and other similar
forms of action.
 One to many form of SMSing can also be used by
state or protestors to organize concerted action.

13. Blogs
 Allow for more complex forms of
discussion – and are speedier than
traditional mass communication.
 But not well suited to mobilization on the
street.
 May even serve as a distraction – some
democratic activists complain about
bloggers thinking they can spur the
revolution from their bedroom (they
can’t).

14. Audiovisual services (YouTube etc)
 Slower than other forms of electronic
communication and not well suited at all to
quick back-and-forths.
 Preparing clips takes time and resources.
 However, may have a profound impact on
people’s willingness to mobilize.
 Video can carry a much more visceral
punch.

15. What does this suggest …
 (1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such
as SMS/email can help organize broad political
action.
• Good at disseminating short pieces of information
rapidly.
• However only good at simple forms of communication –
not long run movement building.
 (2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as
blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and
substitute in part for a free press.
• Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass
audience.
• But can build civil society.
 (3) Many-to-many forms of communication with
audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at
organizing a mass audience.
• But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.

16. Case studies
 4 Case studies – allow us to see how
these dynamics play out in real life.
 China
 The Ukraine
 Lebanon, Bahrain and the Arab world
 Russia

17. China and the Internet
 China has a highly developed set of controls on
Internet.
 not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has
dynamic filtering.
 Can block pages that contain specific words
(Falun Gong).
 Has also blocked access sporadically to search
engines at sensitive moments.
 Blocked Google before an important Party
Congress.
 Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo!
and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.

18. Jingjing and Chacha

20. Blocking of content
 On the one hand, this has led to severe
restrictions on what you can and cannot
talk about using the Internet in China.
• Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc.
 On the other, people still find ways to talk
about political issues, but in highly indirect
ways.
 Some evidence that a limited degree of
power is leaking away from the state.
• Case of email from reporter – and response.

21. Civil society vs. hyper-nationalism
 Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US
should not seek to push China on Internet
freedom issues.
• Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to
flourish if they are not seen as directly
challenging the regime.
 Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil
society – a realm of conversation outside
the control of the state.
 And perhaps leading to long run transition
to democracy or at least a more
responsive regime.

22. Alternative scenario
 However, there is an alternative possibility
– c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005.
 These were organized by a mixture of
bulletin boards (primitive forms of many-
to-many) and text messaging.
 Initially, they were at least tacitly
encouraged by the regime.
 However, rapidly got out of control and
developed a life of their own – eventually
squashed by the authorities.
 This suggests that the benign civil society
scenario isn’t the only one possible.

23. The Ukraine
 Dramatic elections in 2004 following the
exit from power of Kuchma.
 Opposition had a popular candidate in
Yuschenko.
 Government engaged in extensive vote-
rigging to ensure that their candidate –
Victor Yanukovych won.
 Opposition organized protests in which
100,000-300,000 people came out every
day to protest in Kiev, with other protests
in other parts of Ukraine.

24. SMS messaging
 SMS messages not the only factor in
getting people out to protest.
 But did play an important role in
organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing
young people).
• College students used SMS to tell a dozen of
their friends to come to Independence Square
– and to forward the message on to a dozen
others creating a snowball effect.
 Also provided less organized forms of
political communication – political jokes
etc.

25. Blogs
 Some have claimed that blogs played
an important role.
 Some evidence of a role for
Ukrainskaya Pravda.
 Substitute for censored print media.
 But only 12% of Ukrainians had
Internet access on a regular basis.
 Thus – its impact was limited to
elites.

26. Old style media
 Traditional TV also played a highly
important role – bizarrely, the
opposition had control over a TV
station.
 One notorious incident where
Yanukovych was apparently attacked
with “heavy, blunt instruments.”
 But this wasn’t quite what it
appeared.

27. Final results
 Public outcry led to a second vote being
held, which Yuschenko won.
 However, hasn’t proved a long term
success.
 Opposition fragmented after the elections.
 Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at
best a quite unstable democracy with
continuing structural issues.

28. The Arab World
 The Internet still plays only a minor role in the
Arab world because of low levels of penetration
(not many people have access).
 Cell phone access is relatively low too.
 Satellite television is in many ways more
important.
 But there are important cases where the Internet
and related technologies have made a political
difference.
 Lebanon – the Cedar Revolution
 Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and
Sunni rulers.

29. Cedar revolution and Internet
 Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet
than many other parts of the Arab world.
 “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use
of text messaging to manage demonstrations.
• Organized protests and helped protestors converge at
designated points
• Used to share encouraging information about the
sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to
stop demonstrators from reaching central Beirut
• Used to share photographs that were often later
uploaded to websites

30. Blogs and the Cedar Revolution
 Contrary to some claims, blogs played no
major role in the Cedar Revolution.
 There were only a few Lebanese blogs in
existence when it happened.
 Afterwards – a flowering of blogs,
primarily among Lebanese expatriates who
wanted to discuss what was happening.
 Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices
of the street.’

31. Revolution’s Aftermath
 Like the Ukraine, the revolution has
not sustained itself very well.
 Repeated assassinations of anti-
Syrian politicians.
 Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli
incursion.
 General sense of chaos, instability –
not by any stretch of the imagination
an established democracy.

32. Bahrain
 Unusual among Arab countries in
high penetration of the Internet –
nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it.
 Also a society which is divided in
important ways.
• Shias form a majority of the population.
• But are effectively excluded from
politics; ruling family and elite are
Sunni.

33. Use of Internet by disaffected
groups
 Both democratic activists and Shia
activists have common interests (a more
democratic Bahrain would give Shias more
power).
 Have used Internet to articulate a political
voice that they can’t in mainstream
newspapers.
 Bahrain Online (founded by Ali
Abduleman) hosts web forums that
vigorously debate politics.

34. Organized dissidence
 Blogs and cellphones have gone together
to organize flash protests.
 Abdulemam has used WWW, email and
text messages to organize flash protests.
 Opposition groups have used Bahrain
Online to organize protests and strikes.
 Has led to significant political disaffection,
culminating in a dramatic set of events in
2005.

35. UN Report
 Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested
in February 2005 for publishing a critical
UN human rights report on their website.
 Before arrest was even announced, a
consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali
web page.
 This set in motion mass protests, and the
involvement of Shia newspapers and
liberal newspapers in denouncing the
arrests.
 80,000 people involved in street
demonstrations.

36. Action on the Street
 Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’
pairings of protestors with mobile
phones to take photos and bloggers
with computers to publish them.
 Photos spread across Internet.
 Al Jazeera started broadcasting the
protests live.
 Abdulemam freed after fifteen days.

37. Other Arab bloggers
 This is a success story for democracy.
 However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out,
Western commentators tend to emphasise pro-
democracy bloggers and de-emphasize others,
who have differing (some legitimate, some
problematic) views of politics and society.
 Islamic commentators have been vigorous
adopters of new technologies.
 Muslim Brotherhood has established an important
presence in the Egyptian blogosphere.
 Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW
video – through circulation of beheading videos,
video messages from their leaders etc.

38. The Internet in Putin’s Russia
 Russia – presents yet another model of the
relationship between the Internet and the
government.
 Not an authoritarian regime – but not very
democratic either.
 In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative
to a media sector that is only weakly democratic.
 TV stations are controlled by government friendly
forces.
 Newspapers are either ineffective, or pro-
government.
 But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in
the way of alternative voices – why?

39. Indirect State control
 Not censorship as in China
• Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a
dominant role in the market.
• Laws require that ISPs allow govt access
to incoming and outgoing traffic.
• Yet the government doesn’t use these to
block traffic as in other parts of the
world.
 Instead, a softer approach.

40. Soft authoritarianism
 Russian government has an Internet policy
similar to that for the normal media.
 Shadowy backers for many online news
sources, whom the Kremlin can influence.
 Denunciations of alternative voices as
being catspaws for “foreign” interests.
 This means that much of the information
available online for Russians is, effectively,
propaganda.
 More subtle – but also perhaps more
effective in the long run.

41. Lessons of Democracy and the Internet
 Different technologies do have different
consequences.
 We see how cellphone text messaging is
the medium of choice for organizing
protests.
 Blogs may play an important role (within
limits) in getting message out to others,
and in framing events.
 YouTube and other media are likely to
become more important over time, given
role played by TV in existing protests.

42. Limits of Internet
 Internet based technologies and cellphones may
have improved chances for mobilizing protests.
 But this is not enough in itself to create
democracy.
 Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine
suggest that protests and the removal of the
authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own to
create successful democracies.
 It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may
be a bad thing over the longer term.
• Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to
be built up.

43. Internet and civil society
 As McKinnon suggests – it may well be
that the Internet is more important in the
long run because it creates a civil society.
 Forms of cultural expression and debate
that are outside the control of the state.
 “American Idol” type show as the avatar of
democracy.
 Evidence from eighteenth century England
and elsewhere that this was important
over the longer run.