Ncaer top cities 2008
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Ncaer top cities 2008

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Ncaer top cities 2008 Ncaer top cities 2008 Presentation Transcript

  • future capital research The Next Urban Frontier: Amritsar Twenty Cities To Watch Jalandhar Ludhiana Chandigarh Delhi Faridabad Lucknow Jaipur KanpurAhmedabad Bhopal Kolkata Surat Nagpur Megacities Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai Pune Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Pune Hyderabad Boomtowns Surat, Kanpur, Jaipur, Lucknow, Nagpur, Bhopal, Coimbatore Bangalore Chennai Coimbatore Niche cities Faridabad, Amritsar, Ludhiana, Chandigarh, Jalandhar Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research The top twenty cities make up less than 10% of India’s population, but generate more than 30% of income Urban Share of total (%) Rural All India Megacities Boomtowns Niche cities Other cities Total urban Households 69.3 8.1 1.9 0.7 20.1 30.7 100.0 Population 70.5 7.4 1.8 0.7 19.7 29.5 100.0 Income 56.0 24.6 4.5 1.7 13.1 44.0 100.0 Expenditure 63.9 16.4 3.4 1.3 15.0 36.1 100.0 Surplus income 32.5 49.0 7.9 2.9 7.7 67.5 100.0Source: NCAER/FCR 01 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Boomtowns register the fastest economic growthHousehold Income Growth (2004-8,%yoy)18 Household Income Growth (2004-8,%yoy)16141210 8 6 4 2 0 Ch h Ja nai me r d Ba ana All alore Mu ur Hy ndia Lu ai an i ad Na t Lu ow Am es Fa DIA of e Ko d im a e al ar Bh r ar Ch Delh Ah gpu ra u Re Pun Co lkat tor ba ar a mb op rits dh ip np i ab rab cit Su en ckn dig i da IN Ja ba dh I lan Ka rid ng de 20 st Source: NCAER/FCR 02 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Surat is a standout 2007-8 Average Household Income, 2007-8 Average Household Income (Rs/household), (Rs/household) Adjusted for Cost of Living Chandigarh 484,775 Surat 457,671 Mumbai 459,457 Chandigarh 422,503 Surat 431,201 Mumbai 403,059 Delhi 408,237 Delhi 337,678 Chennai 337,059 Ahmedabad 328,267 Ahmedabad 317,856 Jaipur 325,254 Nagpur 308,625 Jalandhar 323,181 Bangalore 300,678 Chennai 319,759 Jaipur 300,374 Bangalore 302,371 Jalandhar 296,651 Nagpur 298,598 Kolkata 287,199 Amritsar 290,939 Lucknow 280,393 Lucknow 289,020 Hyderabad 273,353 Ludhiana 288,753 Ludhiana 271,514 Hyderabad 275,408 Amritsar 267,056 Kolkata 262,247 Faridabad 252,558 Faridabad 246,129 Coimbatore 219,846 Coimbatore 231,963 Pune 210,458 Pune 191,520 Bhopal 165,210 Kanpur 164,677 Kanpur 159,761 Bhopal 157,847Source: NCAER/FCR 03 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research More than half of households will be middle class by 2016 Low Income Aspirants% of total population Middle Class High Income100 80 60 40 20 0 1998-99 2001-2 2004-5 2007-8 (E) 2015-16 (E) Source: NCAER/FCR 04 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research The high-income segment will triple by 2016, quadruple in boomtownsNumber of Households (thousands)16,000 2007-8 2015-1614,00012,00010,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Low Income Aspirants Middle Class High Income Source: NCAER/FCR 05 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Middle class ownership patterns vary across cities Middle Class Penetration Rates (% of middle class households) Megacities Boomtowns Niche cities Car 57.48 43.45 46.79 Motorcycle 47.08 60.85 43.66 Mobile phone 76.81 79.05 76.23 Television 90.46 87.42 85.78 DVD Player 63.13 63.19 59.16 Computer 16.76 20.12 16.80 Refrigerator 90.20 89.52 91.34 Washing Machine 65.98 55.28 62.03 Microwave Oven 13.68 14.12 14.30 Air Conditioner 9.95 14.19 9.80Source: NCAER/FCR 06 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Product ownership by income: All twenty cities High Income Middle Class Aspirants Low IncomeShare of total ownership (%)100 80 60 40 20 0 Washing Machine Mobile Phone Refrigerator Microwave Oven DVD Player AC Car Motorcycle Computer TV Source: NCAER/FCR 07 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Changes in asset ownership patterns across cities: Car / Mobile distribution by income group High Income Middle Aspirants Low IncomeShare of total ownership (%)100 80 60 40 20 0 Megacities Niche cities Megacities Niche cities All 20 cities Boomtowns All 20 cities Boomtowns Car Mobile Phone Source: NCAER/FCR 08 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Spending propensities span a dramatic rangeHousehold consumption expenditure as a share of income, %90 Spending Propensities8070605040302010 0 al ar Hy lore arh Fa re Am d Lu d a i d Co npur ta ne ur Ba pur ar ow Lu hi me i Ch urat na Ah mba ian a a ba op l dh to lka rits gp De ab Pu rab en ckn dig i da a Ja ba S dh Bh lan Ka Na rid Mu Ko ng Ch de an im Ja Source: NCAER/FCR 09 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Composition of household expenditure% of total consumption expenditure100 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% Communication 90 14.3% 16.0% 10.0% Household and personal products 5.5% Education and recreation 80 4.6% 5.2% 5.3% Apparel 5.9% 7.4% 8.8% Health care 70 7.0% Housing and utilities 7.6% 13.1% Transportation 60 10.4% Food, beverages and tobacco 8.0% 50 20.3% 20.1% 21.3% 40 30 20 34.6% 34.4% 31.5% 10 0 Megacities Boomtowns Niche cities Source: NCAER/FCR 10 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Megacity households spend the least on average on education and recreationRs/household/annum70,000 Megacities Boomtowns Niche cities 2007-8 estimates60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0 Food/ Transport Household/ Housing Health Apparel Education/ Communication Beverage personal care Recreation Source: NCAER/FCR 11 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital researchSurplus income rates in the top cities are nearly double the national averageSurplus Income Rate (% of household income)605040302010 0 All 20 Cities Megacities Boomtowns Niche cities Urban Rural All India Source: NCAER/FCR 12 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research 19% of households prefer to keep surplus income at home Keep at home Deposit in bank Deposit in post office Deposit in co-operative society Purchase insurance policies Others% of households100 80 60 40 20 0 Megacities Niche cities Boomtowns All 20 cities Source: NCAER/FCR 13 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Households overwhelmingly draw on savings to cope with shocks% of households who faced economic shock90 Death of chief earner Major sickness of any household member80 Household/business loss70605040302010 0 Using own Loan from Loan from Selling Financial Others savings friends/relatives employer land/jewellery institutions/Bank Source: NCAER/FCR 14 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital researchNiche cities have the highest asset penetration, but lowest financial penetration% of households50 Boomtowns Megacities Niche cities4540353025201510 5 0 Life Insurance Loans Credit Card Source: NCAER/FCR 15 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Nagpur leads in insurance penetrationLife Insurance penetration (% of households)8070605040302010 0 re Ah abad Hy nai Ba pur ne ta Ja ur e Mu i Fa bai Lu al a Ch urat arh Co dhar d Lu ur ow Am d ar lh ian tor ba a op alo lka rits ip np De Pu rab en m ckn dig g da Ja ba S dh Bh lan Na Ka rid Ko ng Ch de me an im Source: NCAER/FCR 16 Draft—do not circulate
  • future capital research Coimbatore and Jaipur have the highest credit card penetrationCredit card penetration (% of households)141210 8 6 4 2 0 i Ja ana Hy dhar Ch r Lu ad al e Na i Mu r re 20 i Ba ities me t d Fa ne Ko dCh lkata arh Am ur Lu ar ow na lhAll mba ipu uAh Sura tor ba a op alo rits gp np De Pu ab rab en ckn dig i da Ja ba c dh Bh lan Ka rid ng de an imCo Source: NCAER/FCR 17 Draft—do not circulate