2. Transformative foresight
At the service of the messy business of
transitioning complex socio-technical
systems ...
mobility
energy
... under pressure
food
manufacturing
3.
4. Now this has been standing here for centuries.
The premier work of man perhaps in the whole western world
and it’s without a signature:
Chartres.
- Orson Welles
6. There is nothing quite like Chartres ...
•
One of the finest examples of French gothic
architecture
•
The first canonical embodiment of our definition
of Gothic architecture as the conjunction of
pointed arches, ribbed vaults and flying buttresses.
•
At the time of its building, it had the tallest roof in
the Western world (about 38 metres).
•
Many structural innovations allowing for
unprecedented scale and much greater area for
window openings. The architecture is nothing but
a frame for displays of stained glass.
•
There is nothing quite like Chartres, partly
because of the sheer quantity of glass, partly
because of its special tonal quality.
•
Its 176 original stained glass windows are the
most complete set of medieval stained glass in
the world.
•
Chartres was one of the great centres of medieval
learning, long before universities were created.
Length: 130 metres
Width: 32 metres / 46 metres
Nave: height 37 metres; width 16.4 metres
Ground area: 10,875 square metres
Height of south-west tower: 105 metres
Height of north-west tower: 113 metres
176 stained-glass windows
Choir enclosure: 200 statues in 41 scenes
7. Question
How do you envisage that this extraordinary
innovation came into being, knowing that ...
• ... no original plans have been found;
• ... the name(s) of the architect(s) have not been
transmitted;
• ... there was no common method of
measurement, no scientific knowledge of
structural mechanics.
8. The 'blueprint' hypothesis
Branner: Although it may be
difficult for us to imagine
nowadays, when sketchbook
and pencil are the architect's
vade mecum, the habit of
thinking out a design, even
down to the details, was
perfectly normal when there
was no strong tradition of
drawing.
Page from travel sketchbook
Villard de Honnecourt
master builder 1225-1250
9. The 'non-blueprint' hypothesis
• Turnbull: Cathedrals were comparable to
modern laboratories in three important ways:
– their very construction constituted a series of fullscale experiments.
– they were spaces where local, tacit and messy
knowledge/practices were transformed into a
coherent tradition.
– Cathedrals were powerful loci of learning and
social transformation, absorbing large amounts of
capital and concentrating resources, skills and
labour.
10. So how can you build things that the world
has never seen before?
• Exchange: ongoing interaction between patron, masons
and other craftsmen.
• Exemplars: life-sized drawings as templates for stone
cutters, allowing for mass-production and incremental
building tactics.
• Expertise: a set of geometric rules of thumb derived from a
craftsman-like practice, passed on from master to
apprentice.
• Experiment: a cathedral is like a building made of playing
cards, each section leaning on others in some sort of
equilibrium. Much of the building process of the gothic
cathedrals was innovative and experimental.
• Exaltation: resources expended on the building are seen as
honouring God, and served also demonstrate both the
devotion, status and power of the patrons.
11. The structure of the cathedrals results from
the combination of factors. They all interact
as a whole to produce a particular form. The
'Gothic Style' as such was not in the minds
of the cathedral builders ...
D. Turnbull, 'Masons, Tricksters and Cartographers'
12.
13. The ATLAS experiment
at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN:
Mapping the secrets of the universe
14.
15. The LHC: the most complex and expensive scientific
experimental facility ever built.
With its sister experiment CMS ATLAS endeavoured to detect
the Higgs boson. On 4 July 2012 ATLAS reported evidence
for the particle's existence, capping a 40-year search.
The ATLAS detector: weighs as much as the Eiffel Tower, 10
million functional elements.
ATLAS had to achieve fundamental breakthroughs in three
interrelated technological areas: 1) never-achieved collision
energy and luminosity, 2) unparallelled event detection rates,
and 3) data acquisition and processing to match.
• The guiding magnets operate at a temperature of -271°C.
• The pressure inside the LHC is 10-13 atmosphere, 1/10 of the
pressure on the moon.
• LHC takes 40 million snapshots per second, each with an image
resolution of 100 megapixels.
ATLAS involved 3.000 scientists, spread across 173 institutes,
in 38 countries.
16. Chartres builders and ATLAS physicists faced
similar challenges.
Turning ATLAS into a reality was akin to putting
together a non-linear, multi-dimensional puzzle
of interdependent pieces brought together on the
basis of fluid and changeable concepts rather
than stable and delineated patterns.
– Jenni, Nordberg and Boisot, 2011.
photo:
Ma)hew
Clemente,
Flickr
photo:
Claudia
Marcelloni,
CERN
17. What the ATLAS collaboration avoided ...
• Complex governance: the collaboration is
guided by a 7-page MoU.
• Top-down hierarchy: there is no CEO, only
a 'spokesperson'.
• A masterplan: the Technical Proposal
contained an embryonic concept with
myriads of design options left open.
18. What the ATLAS collaboration did ...
• Destination: hold on to a clear and unchanging objective:
finding the Higgs.
• Decentralisation: implement an project adhocracy based on
decentralisation of technical and financial risks.
• Deliberation: cultivate emergent technical leadership through a
continuous review process guided by rational justification and
consensual choice of design options.
• Diffusion: cultivate an interlaced information metabolism,
leading to ongoing reconfiguration, recontextualisation and
collective internalisation of available knowledge.
• Dispersal: Cultivate inclusiveness on a large scale by
collectivising prestige and honouring the norms and values of
the scientific community.
19. Creating breakthroughs in a setting of
irreducible uncertainty: lessons learned
• Clear vision, strong values.
• 1st class technical expertise.
• No masterplan. Fluid design trajectory,
keeping options open, hands-on
experiments.
• Decentralisation of work streams and
accountability.
• Intense information flow, boundary objects,
learning.
20. Another take on the same story: optionality
optionality = asymmetry + rationality
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The mechanism of 'convex tinkering' (i.e. fail fast, or
trial-and-error: low-cost mistakes, with known
maximum losses and large potential payoff.
21. Rationality ≠ intelligence
If you have optionality, you do not have
much need for what is commonly called
intelligence, knowledge, insight.
For you don't have to be right that often.
All you need is the wisdom to not do
unintelligent things to hurt yourself and
recognise favourable outcomes when they
occur.
- N.N. Taleb
22. Effectuation:
creating ventures in unknowable spaces
4 simple heuristics
Saras Sarasvathy
Start with your means
Focus on downside risk
Leverage contingencies
Form partnerships
24. Transformative foresight
At the service of the messy business of
transitioning complex socio-technical
systems ...
mobility
energy
... under pressure
food
manufacturing
25. How can foresight contribute?
epistemologies
scenario development,
roadmapping,
horizon scanning,
forecasting
methodologies
scenarios, systems maps,
models, early
indicators
tools
26. What we have learned from Chartres and ATLAS:
an epistemology of transformative foresight
a non-causal,
non-intelligence driven
ethos of shaping complexity
epistemologies
scenario development,
roadmapping,
horizon scanning,
forecasting
methodologies
scenarios, systems maps,
models, early
indicators
tools
28. A multidimensional puzzle ...
New building/urban
concepts
Behavioural
change
New fiscal/financial
instruments
Alternative
mobility systems
New energy
infrastructure
New information
management
concepts
Alternative
power sources
29. High stakes, far away time horizon,
irreducible uncertainty, ...
• 2011: Fukushima and the
new 'Energiekonzept'.
Broad political consensus
for a radical reform.
• 1987-1990: parliamentary
commission on climate
change uses a turnaround
scenario.
• 2003: WBGU landmark
report Energy turnaround
• 1980s: Multitude of energy
for sustainability.
turnaround scenarios.
• 1980: term 'energy
turnaround' is coined.
1980
1990
Energiewende
timeline
• 1998: energy turnaround
scenario becomes official
government policy.
2000
2010
2020
We have to be very clear that
today´s technology will only
carry us for the next ten or fifteen
years. (...) We are right now
extrapolating today´s technology
in a pretty linear fashion. You
never know what kind of
disruptive technologies will
show up in between.
2050
Prof. Frank Behrendt
(TUBerlin, Acatech)
31. Again: how can foresight contribute?
Make explicite
normative biases
systems view
Articulate,
envision shared
goals
Create trust in
multistakeholder
settings
Identify weak
signals, unknown
unknowns
Cement
partnerships
Support the
'planning as
learning' process
'Windtunnel'
strategic options
32. Transition governance:
the art of goal-directed incrementalism
A theory and practice of
'managing' as searching,
experimenting and
learning
Visioning
Alliance
building
Learning
Experimenting
33. Foresight at the 'fuzzy front-end'
systems thinking
+
dialogue
+
'design thinking'
dariocuci.com
thinking
'big picture'
embracing
the normative
rapid
prototyping
thinking
interdependences
cultivating
contingency
abductive
thinking
thinking
leverage points
building
social capital
imagineering
