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Webcast 4Q09
1. RESULTS ANNOUCEMENT
4th Quarter and Fiscal Year 2009 (Brazilian Corporate Law)
Conference Call / Webcast
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CEO
March, 24th 2010
1
2. DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forecasts about CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR
future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the US INVESTORS
expectations of the Company's management.
Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", The United States Securities and Exchange
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", Commission permits oil and gas companies, in
"should", along with similar or analogous their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved
expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. reserves that a company has demonstrated by
These predictions evidently involve risks and actual production or conclusive formation tests to
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the be economically and legally producible under
Company. Therefore, the future results of existing economic and operating conditions. We
operations may differ from current expectations, use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil
and readers must not base their expectations and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines
exclusively on the information presented herein. strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the
The Company is not obliged to update the SEC.
presentation/such forecasts in light of new
information or future developments.
2
3. 2009 RESERVE REPLACEMENT:
17th consecutive year of fully replacing brazilian production
ANP/SPE Criteria
Billion boe
Brazil Reserves International Reserves
14.093 14.169
2.113
0.992
2.124
0.495
0.696
RRI: 110%
0.203
11.969 12.056
0.497 0.493
2008 2009 2008 2009
Oil & NGL Natural Gas Oil & NGL Natural Gas
o 18 years of reserves to production in Brazil, 8 year reserves to production internationally
o Pre-salt discoveries from Espirito Santo Basin contributed with 182 million boe. Estimated reserves
in Santos Basin pre-salt are still under appraisal and therefore not included in proved reserves
o Decrease in international reserves as constitutional changes in Bolivia eliminate reserve recognition
3
4. 2009 PRODUCTION: TRAJETÓRIA SUSTENTADA
PRODUÇÃO SEGUE
DE CRESCIMENTO
Significant production increases in Brazil and internationally
Thous. boed
Oil & Gas Average Total Oil & Natural Gas Average
Production Domestic Production
2,176 2,288
2,526
2,400 317
224 238 321
2,176 2,288 1,855 1,971
2008 2009 2008 2009
National International Oil & NGL Natural Gas
o 6% increase in national oil production from ramp-ups of P-52, P-54 and P-53 and start-up of 5 new
units;
o 6% increase in international production from Akpo and Agbami fields in Nigeria;
o Natural Gas production declined because of reduced demand in Brazil
4
5. PRODUÇÃO 2010 TARGET:
2010 PRODUCTION
Growth from new systems and enhanced recovery
1ST QUARTER 2ND QUARTER 3RD QUARTER 4TH QUARTER
Natural Gas
TUPI Pilot Heavy oil
EWT Tiro and Sidon Uruguá Tambaú Mexilhão
20 th bpd 100 th. bpd
10 million m3/d 15 million m3/d Pre salt
5 million m3/d
35 th. bpd
Cachalote e EWT Tupi Northeast
Baleia Franca 30 th. bpd
100 th. bpd
3.2 million m3/d
EWT Guará
30 th. bpd
200 71
79
2,100
2,050 2,171 +- 2.5%
2009 Target Difference Difference Target 2010 Projects NEW 2010
2009 Target– Target 2010 – Ajusted postponed TARGET
Production 2009 Target 2009 (BP 09-13)
(BP 09-13)
5
6. DOWNSTREAM:
Strong investments in fuel quality and expansion
Downstream Investments in 2009 Oil Products output (th. bpd)
R$ 17.3 billion 1,823
1,787
153 159
Fuel Quality 65 74
255 243
Complexity 136 143
30%
34% 135
142
New projects*
2% 343 331
9%
Logistics
25%
Others 694 737
Construction in progress (US$ bn)
2008 2009 2008 2009
US$ 11.9 US$ 22.7 Diesel Gasoline LPG Nafta Fuel Oil Jet fuel Others
o 6.2% increase in diesel output and 5% reduction in fuel oil output yoy
o 6 million barrel reduction in diesel imports
○ Acid and ultra-acid oils processing up 178% yoy
○ Comply with more strict environmental standards
○ Start up of Diesel S-50 production in 3 refineries (REDUC, REPLAN and REGAP)
○ 3 new HDT units
6
* Includes Northeast refinery, Comperj, Suape Petrochemical plant and Plangás
7. 2009 CRUDE OIL AND PRODUCT SALES:
Growth in domestic sales and higher export volumes
Oil Products Natural Gas
1,849
1,762 1,810
311
434 492 489
Thous.barrels/day
244 247
211 222 212
364 327 366
753 769 782
4Q08 3Q09 4Q09 4Q08 3Q09 4Q09
Diesel Gasoline LPG Others
o Diesel sales increased with the Brazilian economy recovery (although imports decreased 43%)
o Higher level of gasoline sales due to reduced competitiveness of ethanol
o Reduced levels of natural gas sales due primarily to lower thermoelectric demand
7
8. IMPROVEMENT IN TRADE BALANCE NUMBERS
(Thous. Barrels/day)
Oil Products
2008 2009 Oil
673
705
571
234
549
227
197
152
439 373 102 478 156
397
Exports Imports Net Exports Exports Imports Net Exports
Financial Volume (US$ Million) o Domestic oil production increased 5% and oil
products imports decreased 23% with a volumetric
- US$ 927 + US$ 2,874 surplus of 156,000 barrels per day
22,173 21,246 o Reduction of 43% on Diesel imports due to Diesel
12,327 15,201 Maximization Program
o Improving YoY trade balance by US$ 3.8 billion
2008 2009
Imports Exports
8
9. ENERGY AND BIOFUELS SALES
Biofuels Sales Energy Sales
Thous. boe/day MWatts average
125
93 1,721
1,401
98
74
19 27
2008 2009 2008 2009
Biodiesel Ethanol
o Biofuels sales increased 34% due to minimum percentage of biodiesel in diesel (from 3% to 4%)
o Increase of 23% on Energy sales due to short term sales (balance) higher than 2008
o Auctions to sell short term natural gas surplus
9
10. NATURAL GAS AND ENERGY GENERATION INFRASTRUCTURE
CONSOLIDATION
o Natural Gas logistic and Energy generation
Infrastructure consolidation. Highlights:
o Urucu-Coari-Manaus pipeline and
Gasoduc III – 844 KM and 44.1
MMm3/d NG capacity
o LNG Regasification Terminals:
- Guanabara Bay and Pecém - 27
MMm3/d
o Floating LNG Project (FEED) for Pre-
salt Cluster (Santos Basin)
o Flexibility in the NG supply chain:
o Auctions and bi-lateral agreements
to sell short-term NG supply
(average sales of 4.7 MMm3/d de NG
in 9 auctions)
o Portfolio diversification concluding first
investment cycle
10
11. 2009 COST REDUCTION EFFORTS :
Optimization policies substantially reduced costs
Negotiating Bids
o Rebid of services and equipments for the Northeast Refinery R$ 7 billion CAPEX reduction
o Price renegotiation for 8 FPSO hulls for pre-salt and the FPSOs for Guará and Tupi Northeast Pilots
o Rebid of platforms P-61 e P-63 resulting in cost reduction of US$ 420 million
o Released bids to create domestic rig building industry
Rationalizing Projects
o “Assembly line” of 8 identical pre-salt FPSOs
Optimizing Costs
Bid
o P-56 clone of P-51
o Relocation of FPSO Capixaba from Golfinho Field to the
Whales Park field
Project
Corporate Culture Culture
o R$ 750 million reduction in Corporate Overhead
o 6 thousand suggestions from workforce to reduce costs
11
12. 2009 PRICE IMPACT:
Volatile international oil prices, stable domestic product prices
Petrobras Oil Price (US$/bbl) Brent (US$/bbl) R$/bbl
2009 average
121 250 ARP Petrobras: 157.77
120.00
115
105.46 ARP EUA: 130.06
97 200
100.00
89 100.58
86.13
US$/bbl
80.00 150
75 76.75 75
68
70.24 2008 average
59 64.00
60.00 64.42 55 100
ARP EUA: 194.71
48.68 ARP Petrobras: 176.41
47.95 44
40.00 50
32.23
20.00
0
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
o Growing crude oil exports benefit from higher crude oil prices, improving quarterly earnings during the year.
Lower discount between benchmark light and Petrobras oil also contributed
o Following long term pricing policy, Petrobras average realization price (ARP) declined less than international
prices, recovering shortfalls experienced in 2008
o Oil product pricing in Brazil continue to converge with international pricing
o Pricing policy contributed to positive refining margins in 2009 (stable revenues, declining costs)
12
13. FULL YEAR 2009 OPERATING INCOME:
Higher income with efficient cost controls
(R$ MILLION)
45,950 (32,408) 32,586 - 46,128
2008 Net Operating COGS Operating 2009
Operating Income (1) Revenue Expenses Operating Income (1)
o Decrease in operating income due to lower oil prices (2008: R$ 149.80; 2009: R$ 104.88) and
lower ARP of oil products (2008: R$ 176.41; 2009: R$ 157.77)
o COGS decrease due to lower lifting cost with government participation and oil and oil products
import price decrease
o Operating expenses were flat despite Marlin Special Participation (R$ 2.065 bi)
13
(1) Operating income before financial result, equity balance and taxes
14. FULL YEAR 2009 NET INCOME:
Small decline, largely from exchange related variations
(R$ MILLION)
178 (5,967) 5,985 (4,992)
32,988 28,982
790
2008 Operating Financial Equity Taxes Minority Interest 2009
Net Income Income Result Income and Employees Net Income
Part.
o The deterioration in the financial results were due to: Real revaluation (2008: depreciated
32%; 2009: appreciated 26%) and increase in debt indexed to the exchange rate
o Increase in equity income reflects better results from petrochemical sector (R$ 682 million)
and international subsidiaries (R$ 127 million)
o Decrease in taxes due to lower income, results increase in units abroad which present
differentiated tax regimes and losses in some subsidiaries
o Negative results in Minority Interest reflect FX gains in debt of consolidated SPE’s
14
15. 2009 CAPITAL STRUCTURE:
Higher leverage due to growing capex
31% R$ Billion 12/31/2009 9/30/2009 12/31/2008
26% Short Term Debt 15.3 10.6 13.9
26%
28% 28%
Long Term Debt 85.1 79.6 50.9
22%
21%
19% Total Debt 100.3 90.2 64.7
Cash and Cash
28.8 30.1 15.9
12% Equivalents
15%
Net Debt 71.5 60.1 48.8
Net Debt/Ebitda 1.2X 1.1X 0.9X
US$ Billion 12/31/2009 9/30/2009 12/31/2008
Total Debt 57.6 50.7 27.7
12/31/2008 6/30/2009 12/31/2009
Net Debt/Net Capt. Short Term Debt/Total Debt
o Debt profile improved with new borrowings: longer tenor, competitive costs and diversified
sources
o Leverage sustained within the target range (25% to 35%)
15
16. DEBT PROFILE IMPROVEMENT
Consolidated debt profile
2007 - R$ 39.74 billion 2009 - R$ 100.33 billion
15%
23%
Short-Term debt
77% Long-Term debt
85%
Debt by maturity (%)
80
70
o Debt increased to financing long-term
73% investments
60 60%
50 o Corportate debt mainly maturing in the
40 Long-Term
30
40% o Average life of debt reached 7.46 years in
20 2009 (in 2008 was 4,21).
27%
Up to 5 years > 08 years
2007 2008 2009
16
17. 2009 CASH FLOWS:
Investments supported by cash flow and incremental debt
R$ Million Jan-Dec 2008 Jan-Dec 2009 4Q09
Cash at the beginning of the 13,071 15,889 30,088
period
Net cash from operating activities 49,952 51,838 13,658
Investments (53,425) (70,280) (19,658)
Net cash flow (3,473) (18.442) (6,000)
Dividend paid (6,213) (15,440) (5,605)
Net cash from financing activities 11,837 47,067 10,080
Cash at the end of the period 15,889 28,796 28,796
Brent (US$/bbl) 97 62 75
FX Rate (R$/USD) 1,84 2,00 1,74
o Net cash from operating activities grew 4% in 2009 despite decrease in commodities price in the
international market
o Increase in investments was supported by additions to debt
o Build-up in cash balances as of year end 2009 (despite advance payment of dividends), undrawn
term loans and stable pricing, will support capex during 2010
17
18. CAPEX SPENDING:
Reflects continued ramp-up of long term plan
Capex 2009 Annual Investment Budget (OAI) 2010
R$ 70.7 billion 25% R$ 88.6 billion
0.6 0.9
3.8
2.6
6.8 6.2
E&P
RTC 8.1
10.5 31.6
G&E 36.7
International
17.4 Distribution
34.0
Others
EBITDA (R$ billion)
57 60
2008 2009
18
19. BUSINESS PLAN 2010 - 2014
INVESTMENT 2010 – 2014 BETWEEN US$ 200 TO US$ 220 BILLIONS:
MONITORING FINANCIAL RATIOS
o Leverage between 25% and 35%
o Net Debt/ EBITDA up to 2.5X
o Investment revenue maintenance in the different segments
RELEVANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE PROJECTIONS
o Brent curve – upward trend
o Capitalization – value and timing
o Funding needs for the new Strategic Plan 2010-2014
19
20. INDUSTRY COST OUTLOOK:
New growth trend compared to economy recovery
E&P CAPITAL COST INDEX
E&P OPERATIONAL COST INDEX
DOWNSTREAM CAPITAL COST INDEX.
3Q08
230
4Q08
4Q10
COST INDEX (2000=100)
221
211
3Q08 4Q09
187 201
4Q09 4Q10
1Q09
172 176
170
20
SOURCE: IHS CERA – MARCH 2010
21. BRENT CURVES:
Higher crude Long term oil price guarantee funding requirements
ASSUMPTIONS
Minority shareholders participation in the capitalization (US$ Bn) 15 25
Investments (US$ bn) 200 220
Average Brent Price (US$ bbl) 64 77
Financiability Simulation (Average 2010 - 2014)
Leverage 32% 27%
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.2 1.6
21
22. BUSINESS PLAN 2010 - 2014
Projects approved up to R$ 265 billion which will be present in the
Company’s investment portfolio for the period 2011 – 2014 :
E&P – R$ 163.6 billions RTC - R$ 80.5 billions
G&E - R$ 20.2 billions PBIO - R$ 430 millions
Main Projects:
o Significant investments in the pre salt without divesting in the post salt which
includes self sufficiency maintenance in oil and investments in infrastructure for
the pre salt
o Investments in modernization and expansion of refining in Brazil
o Petrochemical and Fertilizer project developments
o Investment in ethanol pipelines and infrastructure
o Expansion of natural gas infrastructure and LNG investments
o New energy projects
22
23. 2009 and 2010 PRE-SALT:
Accelerating activities in the santos cluster
o EWT currently producing 20 thous. bpd
o 2 wells being drilled: Tupi O/A, North of Guará
o 1 well being drilled for ANP in the North of Iara
o 1 well being completed and evaluated in Guará
and Tupi NE test finished with high productivity
of 30 th. bpd
o During 2010, 11 new wells expect to be drilled in
the pre salt cluster
o Bids in progress:
Parati
Iara
(i) FPSO for Guará pilot
(ii) FPSO for the second pilot in the BM-S-11 (still IracemaTupi NE
being defined)
Tupi O/A
(iii) 8 hulls for the Santos cluster
Tupi
Jupiter
Guará
North
Bem-te-vi Carioca Tupi 660
Tupi
Iguaçu Guará South
Abaré Tupi 646 Wells drilled
Drilling for ANP
Azulão Guarani
Drilling
Caramba Completing / testing
EWT
23
24. CAPITALIZATION UPDATE:
Bills approved in lower house, now before senate
o Only completed after areas defined
o One well drilling, another scheduled
Valuation of
o Appraisal by at least 2 independent
the barrels certification companies
o Future revaluation to ensure fairness Results of
capitalization
o STILL TO BE DETERMINED o Access to 5
Size of o Variables value of the barrels + billion barrels
funding needs + capital structure
capitalization
o Greater
o Board Committee to represent Financial
minority and preferred shareholders
o All shareholders will have equal
strength
Transparency and subscription rights
fairness o Full and Transparent disclosure of all o Participation
relevant information
of all
o All Bills for capitalization and new
shareholders
regulatory regime now passed by in a larger
Lower House
Timing company
o Senate has up to 45 days to approve,
modify or reject the bill. If modified, with more
must reconcile with lower house opportunities
o Completion of Capitalization 60 to 90
days after bill becomes law
24
25. BILL 5941/09 COURSE OF ACTION (CAPITALIZATION):
Fast track procedure since arrival in the Senate
25 days
o Bill is sent to commissions and timeline is open for
amendments 2
o After deadline for amendments the bill shall be voted and sent
to plenary
Arrival in the Senate, Presidential message
appreciation of the bill requesting fast track Subject Voting
and forward1 procedure Art.64 F.C. inclusion process
03/22/10 Up to 35 days 05/06/10
After 45 days, subject is ceased
05/17/10
Appreciation and Up to 10 Returns to the Approval with
amendment days
Lower House amendments
voting
Up to 15
business days
Up to 15
business days Presidential Art 66 FC
Art 66 FC approval Approval
06/04/10 05/27/10
Rejected
Filled
1 Bills sent to commission
2 Amendments are presented in the CCJ
25
26. PETROBRAS MARKET VALUE RECOVERY
US$ billion
12/31/2009
-20.3% 99.6% 13.0% 24.2% 2.8% 14.7%
350
324
300
250
199
200 181 181
154 150
150
100
50
0
Exxon Petrobras Shell BP Chevron Total
450
406
400
350
12/31/2008
300
250
200 160 146 150
150
131
100
100
50
0
o Improvement in outlook contributed for the raise of main oil and gas companies market value
o In 2009, Petrobras had the highest appreciation in Market Cap. among its Peers
26
Source: Bloomberg
27. 2009 CAPEX AND 2010 ESTIMATE
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
US$ MM
25.000 2009
average
without
20.000
Petrobras
2010
15.000 average
without
Petrobras
10.000
5.000
0
*
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2010
Source: Evaluate Energy and Company Reports
2010 Petrobras CAPEX , of R$ 88.5 Bi, was converted using FX rate of 1,87 R$/US$ (2010 Petrobras premise). For 2009, preliminary results in
USGAAP – Not audited
27
29. FULL YEAR 2009 SEGMENT RESULTS - E&P:
Lower average oil price reduces operating income
(R$ MILLION)
57,232 (33,093)
5,689 3,050 (1,195) (1,711) 29,972
Jan-Dec/08 Price Effect Cost Effect Volume Effect Volume Effect Operational Jan-Dec/09
Oper. Income on Revenues on COGS on Revenues on COGS Expenses Oper. Income
o Revenue decline from 30% decrease in petroleum price and 44% decrease in gas transfer price
o Higher sales volume due to 5% growth in domestic oil and gas production
o 17% decrease in lifting cost, primarily a reduction in Royalties and Special Participation
contributed to the decrease in COGS
o Increase in operational expenses due to non-recurring charge for adjustment to Special
Participation tax for Marlim field
29
30. FULL YEAR 2009 SEGMENT RESULTS – DOWNSTREAM:
Stable prices and declining COGS lead to turnaround
(R$ MILLION)
2,240 (2,203)
53,457 234 20,482
(28,648)
(4,598)
Jan-Dec/08 Price Effect Cost Effect Volume Effect Volume Effect Operational Jan-Dec/09
Oper. Income on Revenues on COGS on Revenues on COGS Expenses Oper. Income
o Lower export prices and ARP in the domestic market contributed to revenue reduction
o Decrease in downstream COGS reflected: strong reduction in domestic oil and international oil
products acquisition cost as well as lower average inventory costs
o 6% increase in diesel production therefore an import reduction amounting 6 million barrels
o Margin in 2009 of 14%, versus -3% in 2009
30
31. FULL YEAR 2009 SEGMENT RESULTS - GAS AND POWER:
Margins improve, offsetting reduction in demand
(R$ MILLION)
(2,879) 546 1,541
3,388
2,497
(529)
(1,482)
Jan-Dec/08 Price Effect Cost Effect Volume Effect Volume Effect Operational Jan-Dec/09
Oper. Income on Revenues on COGS on Revenues on COGS Expenses Oper. Income
o Revenue decrease due to lower gas sales volume (19% decrease), gas price reduction (7%
decrease) as well as reduced power dispatch
o Higher gross margins (from 11% to 28%) due to lower acquisition costs for gas and electrical
energy
o Ongoing completion of gas infrastructure has led to avoided penalties and higher electricity sales
31
32. FULL YEAR 2009 SEGMENT RESULTS - DISTRIBUTION:
Growing market share leading to higher sales increased earnings
(R$ MILLION)
7,401 (6,786)
(318)
2,035
1,833 (4,887) 4,792
Jan-Dec/08 Price Effect Cost Effect Volume Effect Volume Effect Operational Jan-Dec/09
Oper. Income on Revenues on COGS on Revenues on COGS Expenses Oper. Income
o Decrease in sales price more than offset by increase in sales volume (+13%) and higher
market share following acquisiton of Alvo Distribuidora (2008: 34.9%; 2009: 38.6%)
o Increase in operational expenses due to higher SG&A from increased sales activities
32
33. FULLY YEAR 2009 SEGMENT RESULTS - INTERNATIONAL:
Production growth and better refining margins improve results
(R$ MILLION)
(1,025) 1,146 813
1,452
(1,294)
(2,748) 3,282
Jan-Dec/08 Price Effect Cost Effect Volume Effect Operational Jan-Dec/09
Volume Effect
Oper. Income on Revenues on COGS on COGS Expenses Oper. Income
on Revenues
o Decrease in prices for crude and product sales (petroleum:-15%;gas:-26%) partially offset by
production increase in Agbami ( Start up July 08) and Akpo (Start up March 09)
o Lower acquisition prices and higher refining margins in US and Japan contributed to COGS
decrease
o Reduced losses from devaluation of inventories (-R$ 261mi) and improvement in the
impairment account (2008:-330 mi; 2009:+7mi) explain lower expenses and gains in operating
margin
33