Webcast 4 t07_ing
 

Webcast 4 t07_ing

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    Webcast 4 t07_ing Webcast 4 t07_ing Presentation Transcript

    • Conference Call / Webcast Almir Barbassa Results Announcement CFO and Investor 4th Quarter 2007 and 2007 Relations Officer (Brazilian Corporate Law) March 4th 2008
    • Disclaimer The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments. Cautionary Statement for US investors The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. 1
    • OIL AND NGL DOMESTIC PRODUCTION IN 2007 ∆ +14 th. bpd New Systems 272 80 ∆ +192 th. bpd Th. bpd Existing Systems 1.792 ∆ -178 th. bpd 1.778 1.698 1.520 Jan-Dec 2006 Jan-Dec 2007 Systems 2006 (th. bpd) 2007 (th. bpd) Change P-50, FPSO- Capixaba, P-34 80 225 145 FPSO-Cidade do Rio de Janeiro - 35 35 FPSO- Piranema - 2 2 FPSO-Cidade de Vitória - 4 4 P-52 - 4 4 P-54 - 2 2 New Systems - total 80 272 192 Existing Systems 1.698 1.520 -178 Total 1.778 1.792 14 * Natural decline and production stoppages 2
    • DOMESTIC OIL AND NGL PRODUCTION • Natural production decline rate ∆ = - -1% wasn’t completely offset by the 1,797 new units start-ups during 4Q07: 1,782 Thous. bpd • FPSO-Piranema (Piranema); • Cidade de Vitória (Golfinho); • P-52 (Roncador); • P-54 (Roncador). 3Q07 4Q07 3
    • RESERVES REPLACEMENT SPE (billion/boe) SEC (billion/boe) 15,02 15,01 11,46 11,71 1,27 1,09 0,89 0,89 13,75 13,92 10,57 10,82 2006 2007 2006 2007 Brazil International SPE SEC RRI1 R/P2 RRI1 R/P2 Brazil 123,6% 19,6 years 134,6% 15,3 years International * 12,7 years 101,2 % 10,6 years 1 Reserve Replacement Index Total 98,4% 18,9 years 131,1% 14,8 years 2 Reserves/Production * Contractual revisions in Bolivia and technical revisions in Ecuador and in the United States reduced reserves by 180 million boe, 4
    • LIFTING COSTS INCLUDING GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION US$/barrel 50 R$/barrel 40 100 88.7 40.98 40 37.92 74.9 80 35.03 30 68.8 34.12 57.8 23.16 30 60 20.13 25.76 23.26 20 17.95 18.92 20.58 16.24 14.56 40 20 12.48 10.62 9.04 10 20 10 15.20 14.45 14.66 15.22 7.20 7.33 7.65 8.60 0 0 0 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 Lifting Cost (US$) Gov.Part. (US$) Brent Lifting Cost (R$) Gov. Part.(R$) • Increase in lifting costs without government take in the 4Q07 due to: • FX rate effect (+US$ 0.46): 7% Real appreciation, sizable stake of lifting cost expenses are Real denominated; • Wage revision (+US$ 0.38); • Larger materials consumption (US$ 0.14), due to the start-up of 4 new systems in the 4Q07 with higher unit costs, which shall reduce with production gradual increase. 5
    • REFINING COSTS IN BRAZIL (R$/bbl) 6.36 5.49 4.59 4.98 4.91 2005 2006 2007 3T 07 4T 07 • Higher operating expenses aiming fuel quality increase (better complexity indexes); • Higher maintenance scheduled stoppages. 6
    • E&P – OIL PRICES 88.7 $11,9 74.9 68.8 76.8 US$/barril 59.7 57.8 64.4 57.0 48.7 47.8 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 Brent (average) Average Sales Price Increase in E&P’s average oil sales/transfer price in line with international crude benchmarks. 7
    • REFINING IN BRAZIL AND SALES IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET Thousand barrels/day % 2 ,0 0 00 0 0 2, 85 90 89 1.802 91 90 1.762 1.766 1,776 90 1.701 1,711 1,709 1,768 1.775 1,646 80 405 391 396 391 1,5 0 05 0 0 1, 374 70 60 50 1,0 0 00 0 0 1, 40 1,327 1,357 1,385 1,406 1,385 30 5 0 05 0 0 20 10 0 0 0 4T06 6 4 Q0 1T07 7 1Q0 2T07 7 2 Q0 3T07 7 3 Q0 4T07 7 4 Q0 D o mest ic Oil in F eed st o ck Imp o r t ed Oil in F eed st o ck Oil Pr o d uct s Sal es V o l ume U t i lPr i mar y p r o cessed i nst all ed cap acit y - B r az il ( %) • Sustainable increase in sales volume due to economic growth. (4% 4Q07/4Q06); • Domestic oil in feedstock stable, but in 2008 a new Delayed Coking Unit will start up in Reduc increasing our ability to handle the domestic heavy oil production. 8
    • AVERAGE REALIZATION PRICE - ARP 120 4Q06 3Q07 4Q07 Aver. Aver. Aver. 96.77 100 84.80 81.09 80 70.59 89.08 88.69 60 68.81 74.87 59.68 40 20 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 A R P B r asi l ( U S$/ b b l ) A ver ag e B r ent Pr ice ( U S$/ b b l ) A R P U SA ( U S$/ b b l w / sal es vo l . i n B r asi l ) 9
    • NET INCOME CHANGE – R$ Million (4Q07 VS 3Q07) 1,797 Domestic Oil, NGL and Condensate – thousand bpd 1,782 948 1.690 5.528 408 5.053 579 421 17 3Q07 Net Revenues COGS Oper. Exp. Fin. and non Taxes Minority Inter. 4Q07 Net Income oper. expenses and Particip. in Income Equity Income and Employee Part. • Consolidated net income was affected by: • increase in costs, as well as lifting and refining costs; • increase in operating expenses, such as general and administrative (ACT 2007), exploratory costs (dry wells) and impairment (international assets). 10
    • CHANGE IN QUARTER REVENUES (4Q07 VS 3Q07) Exploration & Production – Operating Profit Change– R$ million 1,797 Domestic Production of Oil, NGL and Condensate (thous. bpd) 1,782 2.352 612 625 261 110 12.836 11.570 3Q07 Oper. Price Effect on Volume Effect Avrg Cost Volume Effect Oper. Exp. 4Q07 Oper. Profit Net Revenue on Net Effect on on COGS Profit Revenue COGS • Better E&P operating result: steady production, however, domestic oil average realization price increased 19% in the quarter. 11
    • CHANGE IN QUARTER REVENUES (4Q07 VS 3Q07) Downstream – Change in Operating Profit – R$ million 2.153 840 3.473 1.931 784 22 577 3Q07 Oper. Price Effect Volume Effect Avrg Cost Volume Effect Oper. Exp. 4Q07 Oper. Profit on Net on Net Effect on on COGS Profit Revenue Revenue COGS • Squeeze in refining margins due to oil prices increase; • Higher refining cost due to increased activities related to maintenance stoppages; • Exported volumes reduction; • These effects were partially offset by the increase in oil products average realization price in Reais (2% in the quarter). 12
    • CHANGE IN QUARTER REVENUES (4Q07 VS 3Q07) International – Change in Operating Profit – R$ Million 439 66 480 166 1.055 241 (755) 3Q07 Volume Effect Price effect Volume Cost Effect Oper. on COGS on Net Effect on Net on COGS Income Revenue Revenue 4Q07 Oper. Operating Expenses Loss Increase in Operating Expenses: • Increase in exploratory costs, specially with dry wells write-offs (R$ 495 million); • impairment (R$ 401 million), specially in Ecuador. 13
    • INVESTMENTS R$ million 2007 2006 % Exploration and Production 20,813 17,248 21 Downstream 10,536 4,501 134 Gas & Energy 4,817 3,229 49 International 6,574 7,161 (8) Supply 1,670 642 160 Corporate 875 905 (3) Total Investments 45,285 33,686 34 • In 2007 Petrobras invested R$ 45,285 million, which represents a 34% increase over 2006; • The investments in consolidating the petrochemical sector (Ipiranga and Suzano acquisition) contributed to the increase in Downstream and Supply segments CAPEX. 14
    • LEVERAGE Petrobras’ Leverage Ratio R$ million 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 (1) 19% Short Term debt 8,960 13,074 19% (1) Long Term Debt 30,781 33,531 17% 16% 16% Total Debt 39,741 46,605 Cash and Cash Equivalents 13,071 27,829 (2) Net Debt 26,670 18,776 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Net Debt/Net Capitalization • Net debt Increase mainly due to reduction of cash/cash equivalents, investments, and payments related to the Pension Plan settlement; • Effect partially offset by debt amortization and Real appreciation (1) Includes debt from leasing contracts (R$ (13.071 million on 12.31.2007 and R$ 27.829 million on 06.30.2007) (2) Total debt less cash and cash equivalents 15
    • E&P: UPCOMING UNITS Units Field Capacity Status Start-up Shipyard FPSO Cidade Oil: 100.000 bpd Under Jabuti 2S08 Singapore de Niterói* Gas: 3,5 MM m3/dia Construction Oil: 180.000 bpd Under P-51 Marlim Sul 2S08 Nuclep/Brasfels Gas: 6MM m3/dia Construction Singapore and Oil: 180.000 bpd Under P-53 Marlim Leste 2S08 Porto de Rio Gas: 6MM m3/dia Construction Grande Cidade São Oil: 35.000 bpd Under Camarupim 2S08 Mateus* Gas: 10 MM m3/dia Construction Under FSTP Consortium Oil:100.000 bpd P-56 Marlim Sul Construction 2011 (Keppel Fels and Gas: 6MM m3/dia (P-51 Clone) Technip) Oil: 180.000 bpd P-57 Jubarte Contracted 2011 SBM Gas: 2MM m3/dia Hull contract Oil: 180.000 bpd signed. Basic P-55 Roncador 2013 Atlântico Sul (hull) Gas: 6MM m3/dia Project under revision. * Leased 16
    • SHAREHOLDER’S RETURN 140% Total Shareholder's Return 131,4% 7.6% 120% 111,5% 15.8% 100% 85,2% 80% 6.0% 123.8% 60% 79.2% 50,5% 95.7% 43,6% 6.0% 40% 7.5% 44.5% 39.5% 31.5% 34.1% 20% 30.2% 36.1% 22.8% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Shares increase Dividends Amex Oil Index (*) Source: Bloomberg * includes dividends for comparison purposes PBR’s yield surpassed Amex Oil in the last 5 years 17
    • QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION Visit our website: www.petrobras.com.br/ri For more information contact: PetrOil Brasileiro S.A – PETROBRAS Investor Relations Department E-mail: petroinvest@petrobras.com.br Av. República do Chile, 65 – 22o floor 20031-912 – Rio de Janeiro, RJ (55-21) 3224-1510 / 3224-9947 18