1. 2012 – 2016 Business and
Management Plan
June 25, 2012
2. Disclaimer
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any
future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange
information or future events or for any other reason. Figures
Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and
for 2012 on are estimates or targets.
are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking
statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and
estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions,
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in
company performance and financial results. Such terms as
their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should
"anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan",
not place reliance on any forward-looking statement
"project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous
contained in this presentation.
expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.
Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections
and may differ materially from actual future results or events.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the
SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and
results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking
gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in
statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general
documents filed with the United States Securities and
economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other
Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to
commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates,
Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved,
uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas
probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of
reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves,
Regulation S-X.
international and Brazilian political, economic and social
developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and
our ability to obtain financing.
2
3. Business Plan
Business Plan
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3
4. 8 Business Plans: Targets Not Accomplished
Oil Production Targets
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(kbpd)
2003-2007 BP 1,590 1,620 1,820 2,030 2,220
2004-2008 BP 1,550 1,780 1,940 2,140 2,370 2,330 2,300
2006-2010 BP 1,910 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300
2007-2011 BP 1,979 2,061 2,195 2,368 2,374
2008-2012 BP 1,875 2,050 2,191 2,296 2,374
2009-2013 BP 2,050 2,250 2,430
2010-2014 BP 2,100 2,180
2011-2015 BP 2,100
Actual Production 1,540 1,493 1,684 1,778 1,792 1,855 1,971 2,004 2,022
Deviation from Target (78)
Strategic Plan 1999, production target for 2005 was 1,850 kbpd
Strategic Plan 2001, production target for 2005 was 1,900 kbpd
In 2005, actual production was 1,684 kbpd due to delays on P-43, P-48 and P-50
E&P Planning based on ‘Aggressive Targets’ which proved themselves, year
over year, to be unrealistic 4
5. Business Plan
Business Plan
“H
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, Pe
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.”
5
6. Project Schedule Delays and Cost Increases
Example: Abreu e Lima Refinery 1st Phase Milestones and Total
2 phases of 115 kbpd each Investment for the Refinery
Total Investment
Start-up Date
Approvals for the Refinery
of 1st Phase
(US$ billion)
Milestone 0
Nov/11 2.3
(Sep/05)
Milestone 1
9 times initial cost
Oct/11 4.1
3 years of delay
(Dec/06)
Milestone 2
Jul/12 13.4
(Nov/09)
Milestone 3
Sep/13 17.1
(Mar/12)
RNEST construction in the Suape Industrial Complex (Pernambuco)
Milestone 4
Nov/14 20.1 (*)
May/12 (Jun/12)
• Approval System not completed fulfilled
• Failures in physical and financial monitoring
* US$ 3.0 Billion in claims under discussion already included 6
7. Business Plan
Business Plan
“L
oc
al
Co
nt
en
tP
ol
icy
ca
us
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pr
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td
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ys
...”
7
8. Drilling Rigs Built Abroad: Zero Local Content
Drilling Rigs delivered in 2011: 10 (542 days of delays)
Drillings Rigs to be delivered in 2012 (Water Depth > 2.000m)
1. Pacific Mistral – South Korea (83 days of delay) 8. ODN Delba III – Emirates (683 days of delay) -> Marlim Sul
2. Schain Amazônia – China (864 days of delay) 9. Schahin Sertão – South Korea (215 days of delay) -> Roncador
3. Ocean Rig Mykonos – South Korea (98 days of delay) 10. ODN Tay IV (481 days of delay) -> Ring-fence Albacora
4. Schahin Cerrado – China (112 days of delay) 11. Sevan Brasil – China (atraso de 91 dias) -> BM-S-41
5. Etesco Takatsugu J – South Korea (147 days of delay) 12. ODN I – South Korea (344 days of delay) -> Transfer of Rights
6. Deepsea Metro II – South Korea (138 days of delay) 13. ODN II – South Korea (380 days of delay) -> Transfer of Rights
7. Ocean Rig Corcovado – South Korea (148 days of delay) 14. Amaralina Star – South Korea (189 days of delay) -> Transfer of Rights
Drillings rigs already delivered and under operation Drillings rigs to be delivered soon. Already based in Brazil
• High Worldwide Demand for Goods and Services
• Brazilian Local Content compliance and execution timelines
will be shown later
8
9. Business Plan
Business Plan
“P
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.”
9
10. Long Term Oil Products Pricing Policy in Brazil
2012: temporary gap between domestic and international prices combined with higher imports.
2009 and 2010: domestic prices were above international.
ARP BRAZIL* x ARP USGC **
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Apr/12
260 900
240 800
220 Losses
Imported Volumns kbbl / d
700
200
Gains 600
180
160 500
140
R$/bbl
400
120
300
100
200
80
60 100
40 0
jan-04
jan-03
jan-06
jan-09
jan-02
jan-05
jan-07
jan-08
jan-10
jan-11
jan-12
ARP USGC (with volumes sold in Brazil) Gasoline Imports
ARP Brazil Diesel Imports
ARP: Average Realization Price
USGC: US Golf Coast (*) Comprises Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil (**) USGC price weighted with volumes sold in the Brazilian market 10
11. Business Plan
Our Differential: Discoveries in Brazil represent 63% of
Business Plan worldwide deepwater discoveries in
the last 5 years
Our Differential: Our reserves are located 300 km away
from the domestic market
11
12. BRAZIL: Leadership in New Discoveries in Deep Waters
PETROBRAS: Reserve Replacement Ratio > 100% for the 20th consecutive year
33,989 million bbl
New Discoveries 2005-2010
19%
• In the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new
discoveries worldwide were made in deep waters.
Brazil alone accounts for 63% of these discoveries.
49%
32%
Brazil • Projections indicate that as Brazil develops these
Brasil newly discovered reserves, it will lead non-OPEC
supply growth until 2030 (PFC Energy).
Deep Waters
Other Discoveries
Petrobras: Proven Reserves in Brazil (billion boe)
+3%
15.71
13.23
• Reserve/Production 19.2 years
+164% • Reserves Incorporated in 2011
Total: 1.24 billion boe
7.53
Pre-Salt: 1 billion boe
2011
1991
1995
2000
2010
2005
12
13. Our Differential: the value of our reserves
300 km away from the market
Southeast Region represents:
47% of oil product consumption
62% of power consumption
65% of natural gas consumption
55 % of GDP
13
14. Business Plan
Immediate Management Actions to Improve Results
Business Plan
14
15. REALISM
First Initiative of the President with the New Executive Board (Feb/12):
2012 Forecasted Annual Oil Production Curve Review
Production Curve in Brazil – Production of Oil and NGL (kbpd)
4,910
5.000
2011-2015 BP
4.000
3,070
3.000
2,022
2.000
1.000 ?
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
REALISTIC TARGETS
PRAGMATIC VIEW BASED ON STANDARD, REAL PROJECTS
15
16. REALISM
First Initiative of the President with the New Executive Board (Feb/12):
2012 Forecasted Annual Oil Production Curve Review
Production Curve in Brazil – Production of Oil and NGL (kbpd)
4,910
5.000
2011-2015 BP
4.000
3,070
3.000
2,022
2.000
What’s the E&P revised
possible projects
1.000 realistic schedules
production for throughout 3
2012? months
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
REALISTIC TARGETS
PRAGMATIC VIEW BASED ON STANDARD, REAL PROJECTS
16
17. REALISM
First Initiative of the President with the New Executive Board (Feb/12):
2012 Forecasted Annual Oil Production Curve Review
Production Curve in Brazil – Production of Oil and NGL (kbpd)
4.910
5.000
-17%
2011-2015 BP -710 kbpd
4.000
Up to -1.000 mbpd 4.200
3.070 in some months
3.000 2.500
2012-2016 BP
2.022
2.000
What’s the E&P revised
possible projects
1.000 realistic schedules
production for throughout 3
2012? months
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
REALISTIC TARGETS
PRAGMATIC VIEW BASED ON STANDARD, REAL PROJECTS
17
18. CAPITAL DISCIPLINE
Second Initiative of the President with the New Executive Board:
Compliance with the Project Management Approval System
Project Beginning and Planning Basic EVTE* Phase IV
Phase I Phase II Phase III Approval and Phase V
Opportunity Conceptual Basic Project liberation for Closing
Execution
execution
Identification Project
Entering EVTE Conceptual Start-
Petrobras approval EVTE up
Portfolio Phase I approval
Condition for
Contracting
Investments in
2012-2016 BP
Exception only for
E&P Brazil
Exploration and Production Projects in Brazil:
Projects in Phases I, II and III may have the authorization to anticipate
resources when this is shown to accelerate oil production
* Technical and economic feasibility study 18
19. PERFORMANCE
Third Initiative of the President with the New Executive Board:
Manage Projects Effectively
• All 2012-2016 BP projects under implementation and evaluation have an ‘S’ Curve as unique reference of
management, planning, control and monitoring at Petrobras
•Three new Executive Managers positions created inside the Engineering and E&P areas will be exclusively dedicated
to the construction of drilling rigs and production systems
Physical Monitoring: ‘S’ Curve Financial Monitoring: ‘S’ Curve
100 Projected Total
Critical Projects Measured Monthly by the Critical Projects Measured Monthly by the
Cost
90 Board of Directors and Executive Board Board of Directors and Executive Board
80
70
60 Entry into Planned Entry into Projected Planned Total Cost
% Acumulado
(U S$ Milhões)
Operation Operation
50
40 Term deviation
Explanations for delays
30 Monthly Physical Progress Deviation
Authorization for Budget Review
20 Explanations for delays
Cost Deviation
10 Recovery Plan, when necessary
0
set-09
nov-09
set-10
nov-10
set-11
nov-11
set-12
nov-12
set-13
nov-13
set-14
nov-14
jan-10
mar-10
mai-10
jul-10
jan-11
mar-11
mai-11
jul-11
jan-12
mar-12
mai-12
jul-12
jan-13
mar-13
mai-13
jul-13
jan-14
mar-14
mai-14
jul-14
jan-10
mai-10
jul-10
jan-11
mai-11
jul-11
jan-12
mai-12
jul-12
jan-13
mai-13
jul-13
jan-14
mai-14
jul-14
set-09
mar-10
set-10
mar-11
set-11
mar-12
set-12
mar-13
set-13
mar-14
set-14
nov-09
nov-10
nov-11
nov-12
nov-13
nov-14
Linha de Base
Base line Realizado
Preformed Projected
Projetado Base line
Linha de Base Preformed
Re alizado Projected
Proje tado
19
20. Fundamentals of 2012-2016 Business Plan
PRIORITY
CAPITAL
DISCIPLINE • Priority
PERFORMANCE
given to
exploration
• ‘S’ Curves and
production
• To ensure
Integrated Portfolio • Management projects of
expansion with
Management focused in oil and
solid financial
accomplishing natural gas in
indicators
physical and Brazil
financial targets
of each project • Realism in
production
targets
2012 2016
20
21. 2012-2016 BP Investments: Approved by Petrobras Board of
Directors in June 13, 2012
2012-2016 Period
US$ 236.5 Billion Financiability Assumptions
27.7%
(US$ 65.5 Billion)
28% • Parity with Imported Oil Products Prices
E&P • Maintenance of Investment Grade:
60.0% 5.8% - Leverage lower than 35%
(US$ 141,8 Billion)
(US$ 13.8 Billion)
- Net Debt/EBITDA lower than 2.5x
2.1%
(US$ 5.0 Billion) • There is no issuance of new shares
1.5% • Divestments of US$ 14.8 Billion, focusing on
(US$ 3.6 Billion)
assets outside Brazil
1.6%
1.3% (US$ 3.8 Billion)
(US$ 3.0 Billion)
E&P RTM G&E Petrochemical Distribution Biofuel Corporate
*4.5% of investments abroad, 90% in E&P 21
22. Investments during the 2012-2016 Period:
Implementation Vs. Evaluation
Under Implementation Under Evaluation
2012-2016 BP = All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the
remaining segments in phase IV*
+ Projects for the remaining segments
currently in phase I, II and III.
US$ 236.5 Billion US$ 208.7 Billion US$ 27.8 Billion
980 projects 833 projects 147 projects
27.7% 24.8% 17% (**)
(US$ 65.5 Billion) US$ 51.7 Billion (US$ 4.6 Billion)
28% 7%
(US$ 1.9 Billion)
0%
65.8% (US$ 0.1 Billion)
60.0% 3.7% 50%
(US$ 141.8 Billion) (US$ 137.2 Billion) (US$ 7.8 Billion) 5% (US$ 13.9 Billion)
5.8% (US$ 1.3 Billion)
1.8%
(US$ 13.8 Billion
(US$ 3.7 Billion)
2.1%
1.7%
(US$ 5.0 Billion)
(US$ 3.5 Billion) 21%
1.5%
(US$ 3.6 Billion) 0.9% (US$ 6.0 Billion)
1.6% (US$ 1.9 Billion)
1.4%
1.3% (US$ 3.8 Billion)
(US$ 3.0 Billion)
(US$ 3.0 Billion) ** E&P abroad
E&P RTM G&E Petrochemical Distribution Biofuel Corporate
22
* Includes budget already designated for projects under evaluation for RTM, G&E, Petrochemical, Distribution, Biofuels and Corporate
23. Under Evaluation: 147 Projects
RTM, G&E, Petrochemical, Distribution and Biofuels
2012-2016 Period Composition:
US$ 27.8 Billion Competition for financial capacity
17% (*)
(US$ 4.6 Billion)
Creativity Simplicity
Creativity Simplicity Cost Reduction
Cost Reduction
7%
(US$ 1.9 Billion) Change of phase for these projects will
0%
50%
depend on:
(US$ 0.1 Billion) a. Results of Viability Studies;
(US$ 13.9 Billion)
5% 21%
b. Resources Availability (Financiability);
(US$ 1.3 Billion) (US$ 6.0 Billion) c. Competition for financial capacity;
d. Alignment of new refineries costs to
international standards;
* E&P abroad e. Availability of domestic NG for fertilizer plants
and new thermoelectrical units; and
International E&P Petrochemical Corporate f. Others.
RTM Distribution
G&E Biofuel
23
24. Program Initiatives for Business 2012-2016 BP
2012-2016 BP
US$ 236.5 Billion
Increase of
Cost Local Content
Operational
Optimization Management
Efficiency Program
Program Program
in Campos Basin
Integrated Management of the Company’s Portfolio Safety and Environment
24