Narnolia Securities Limited positive to buy stocks of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd with target price of Rs 1420 and Rs. 350 respectively. Also book profit on DIVISLAB stock which has achieved our recommended Target price of Rs 1350.
India Equity Analytics | Buy Stock of Sobha Developers Ltd and Suprajit Engineering Ltd
1. IEA-Equity
Strategy
India Equity Analytics
5th Feb, 2014
Daily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities
DIVISLAB : Strong Results
"NEUTRAL"
Edition : 199
5th Feb 2014
The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led by strong growth across its key molecules. There has been
recovery in ex-currency growth from the high single digits witnessed in the past two quarters. …………………. ( Page : 2-3)
Sobha Developers Ltd: "New launches to spur growth"
"BUY"
5th Feb 2014
on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume 3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore)
we cut down our FY14-FY15E earninng estimates by 26%/15%. We expect the sales of the company to grow by 17% & by 20% yoy inFY14E &
FY15E, however operating margin will sustain at 28.0%/28.5% over the same period. At the CMP of Rs. 276 the stock is trading at PE of 11.0x
FY14E & 8.5x FY15E. We maintain our "Buy" rating on stock with revised price target of Rs. 350 per share based on P/BV of 1.5x and 1.3x of
FY14E and FY15E. ........................................ ( Page : 4-5)
Suprajit Engineering Ltd: "On top gear….."
"BUY"
5th Feb 2014
At the CMP of Rs.52, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.4x/9.9x/8.5x for FY14-16E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14-15E is seen
at Rs. 4.3/5.3/6.2 respectively. Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%over FY14-16E. We expect that the company
surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this
particular scrip with a target price of Rs 65 for medium to long term investment. .................................. ( Page : 6-7 )
SWARAJ ENGINES: "Long term fundamental continue to remains intact "
"BUY"
4th Feb 2014
At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue
growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26% post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and
capable of ustaining its healthy earnings. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%.
So taking all this into consideration share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one can expect
growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised
price target to Rs 648 ................................. ( Page :8-9)
Kolte-Patil Developers: "On track to meet FY14 guidence"
"BUY"
4th Feb 2014
At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is
seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E
respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is
expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to
continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target
price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment. .......................... ( Page : 10-11)
Kalpatru Power Transmission : "Missed one……."
"BUY"
4th Feb 2014
At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue growth, we revise revenue estimates for
FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone
EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating with target price at Rs.95/share.
................................................ ( Page : 12-15)
Godrej Consumer Product :" Strategy Shining"
"BUY"
4th Feb 2014
For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by 18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported
growth across all geographies and segments, respectively. With launching new products in domestic as well as international market, Godrej CP
will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10 strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs.
.............................................. ( Page : 16 -18)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
2. DIVISLAB
"NEUTRAL"
05th Feb' 14
Strong Results
NEUTRAL
1337
1420
1350
6%
5%
Result Update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532488
DIVISLAB
1390/905
17842
5.43
6000
Stock Performance-%
1M
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
7.6
11
1yr
26.2
26.17
YTD
15.5
3.5
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
Current 2QFY14 1QFY1
4
52.1
52.1
52.2
16.3
15.8
14.8
13.2
12.5
12.5
18.5
19.5
20.5
One Year Price vs Nifty
The company registered its 3QFY14 net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led by strong
growth across its key molecules. There has been recovery in ex-currency growth from the
high single digits witnessed in the past two quarters.
The operating EBITDA for the quarter under review came at Rs 288 Cr and OPM at
41.7%.The operating margins improve by almost 760bps on the back of improvement in
company’s operating metrics, currency benefits and lower power cost . The RM cost to
sales for the quarter came at 36% while it was 49 % for the same time last fiscal. The
employ cost as percentage of sales also showed improvement of 100 bps on yearly basis.
The company has cut down its other expenses for the quarter to Rs 88 and it stands at 13
% of the net sales from 8% a year ago.
The profits after tax came at Rs 218 Cr and NPM at 31.7 %.The other income for the
quarter came at Rs 8 Cr verses 22 Cr for the same time last fiscal. The tax rate for the
quarter was lower on yearly basis at 20 %.Forex Loss for the current quarter amounted to
Rs 5 Cr while there was a forex gain of Rs 16 Cr during the corresponding quarter last year.
Key takeaways from management interaction
> Sales from DSN SEZ (all 5 units) are at of Rs 3.3 Bn for 9MFY14 (versus Rs 2.2 Bn in
FY2013). The company has total investments of Rs 6.0 Bn in the DSN SEZ and expects the
asset turnover to be 1.8-2.0 times.
> Carotenoid sales for 9MFY14 are at Rs 910 Mn and expected to reach Rs1.5 Bn for
FY2015.
>The company expects the inspection (by regulatory/customers) for the 3 additional units at
DSN SEZ in 4QFY14. Sales from these units are expected to ramp up in 2QFY15.
> There has been reduction in power and fuel cost since August 2013 with 160 bps decline
on a sequential basis.
>CWIP is at Rs1.8 Bn at the end of 9MFY14. There has been a sharp increase in
receivables at Rs 7.1 Bn – 108 days versus 86 days in FY2013. Inventory days have
improved to 140 days in 9MFY14 versus 161 days in 1HFY14.
View & Valuation
The stock at CPM of Rs 1337 is trading at 22.05 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of Rs
61.The stock has achieved our recommended Target price of Rs 1350 and therefore
we change our view to Neutral from BUY. The strong 3QFY14 results ,improvement in
operating metrics, Currency movement are few factor which still provide some upsides. We
have slightly revised our target price upwards to Rs 1420 based on our analysis.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
689
287
218
41.7%
31.6%
2QFY14
567
249
205
43.9%
36.2%
(QoQ)-%
21.5
15.3
6.3
(230bps)
(450bps)
3QFY13
534
182
143
34.1%
26.8%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
29.0
57.7
52.4
760bps
490bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
2
3. DIVISLAB
Sales and PAT Trend (Rs)
Net sales at Rs 687 Cr up by up 29% YoY led
by strong growth across its key molecules.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
OPM %
Operating margins improve by almost 800bps
on the back of improvement in company’s
operating metrics, currency benefits and
lower power cost .
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
NPM %
The tax rate for the quarter was lower on
yearly basis at 20 %.Forex Loss for the current
quarter amounted to Rs 5 Cr
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
3
4. Sobha Developers Ltd.
"Buy"
5th Feb' 14
"New launches to spur growth….."
Result update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
276
350
460
27%
-24%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
532784
SOBHA
282/472
3052
105448
6002
Stock Performance-%
1M
-17
(14)
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-36
-35
YTD
-21
(27)
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
60.6
32.7
2.9
3.9
1 yr Forward P/B
2QFY14 1QFY14
60.6
60.6
33.2
33.5
2.6
2.8
3.7
3.1
Despite of week volume numbers in NCR & Chennai Sobha reported its Q3FY14 numbers with a
topline that was inline street expectations at Rs. 544.3 crore. EBITDA for the quarter stood at
Rs. 149.0 crore, growing 8.4% yoy. The EBITDA margin were down 460 bps, yoy and stands at
27.4% during the quarter mainly on account of higher proportion of contractual projects
segment (this segment fetches about 20 per cent margins compared with property
development business’ 35 per cent and increase in input costs. However managemnet assures
that goinf forward margins should be around 28 percent and at profit before tax (PBT) and
profit after tax (PAT) level we are at 10 percent to 11 percent level. We maintain our "Buy"
rating on stock, however on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume
3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore) we cut down our
FY14-FY15E earninng estimates by 26%/15% and also reduce our price target to Rs. 350
Lowered FY14E sales volume & revenue Guidence
Sobha had at the begning of the fiscal set guidence of new sales area of 4.20 mnsft at Rs. 2600
crore for the current fiscal. At the close of 3 quarters of FY14, the company has registered a new
sales area of 2.66 mnsft valued at 1737 crore. However, post 3QFY14 result, management had
lowered his sales volume and booking guidence to 3.76 mnsft and Rs. 2200 crore largely
attributed to delay in approvels
Growth story remain intact;
The firm had launched two new projects: 0.66 mnsft of developable area and 0.46 mnsft of
saleable area in 3QFY14 and six new projects: 3.38 mnsft of developable area and 2.01 mnsft of
saleable area in 9MFY14. In CY14, the firm has plans to launch 11 mnsft, and out of which 3
mnsft in 4QFY14 especially in the Rs7.5-15mn price bracket that continues to see stable demand
as a result we able to belive that company will able to achive is revised sales volume guidence for
FY14E.
Valuations;
on back of cut down by managemet of FY14E guidence (Sale volume 3.76 mnsft, earlier 4.2 mnsft
and Sales value 2200 crore, earlier, 2600 crore) we cut down our FY14-FY15E earninng estimates
by 26%/15%. We expect the sales of the company to grow by 17% & by 20% yoy inFY14E &
FY15E, however operating margin will sustain at 28.0%/28.5% over the same period. At the CMP
of Rs. 276 the stock is trading at PE of 11.0x FY14E & 8.5x FY15E. We maintain our "Buy" rating
on stock with revised price target of Rs. 350 per share based on P/BV of 1.5x and 1.3x of FY14E
and FY15E.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
544.3
149.0
58.3
27.4%
10.7%
2QFY14
540.8
143.3
56.6
26.5%
10.8%
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(QoQ)-%
0.6
4.0
3.0
90 bps
(10) bps
Rs, Crore
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
429.8
26.6
137.4
8.4
52.6
10.8
32.0%
(460) bps
12.2%
(150) bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
4
5. SOBHA DEVELOPERS Ltd.
Key financials :
PARTICULAR
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014E
2015E
1130
4
1134
264
231
32
69
166
27
NA
139
25
2.4
13.6
1394
5
1400
360
332
28
86
251
67
NA
185
29
3.0
18.8
1408
6
1414
467
428
39
117
318
108
NA
210
49
5.0
21.4
1865
6
1870
548
489
59
171
324
107
NA
217
69
7.0
22.1
2180
6
2186
610
542
68
175
373
126
NA
247
69
7.0
25.2
2616
6
2622
746
674
72
200
479
162
NA
317
69
7.0
32.3
23.3%
12.2%
5.0%
0.9%
8.1%
6.5%
25.8%
13.2%
6.9%
1.1%
10.0%
8.7%
33.1%
14.9%
6.5%
1.5%
10.5%
10.1%
29.4%
11.6%
6.3%
2.0%
10.2%
11.1%
28.0%
11.3%
9.1%
2.5%
10.7%
11.1%
28.5%
12.1%
11.7%
2.5%
12.4%
11.8%
Performance
Revenue
Other Income
Total Income
EBITDA
EBIT
DEPRICIATION
INTREST COST
PBT
TAX
Extra Oridiniary Items
Reported PAT
Dividend (INR)
DPS
EPS
Yeild %
EBITDA %
NPM %
Earning Yeild %
Dividend Yeild %
ROE %
ROCE%
Ammount in crores
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
5
6. Suprajit Engineering Ltd.
"Buy"
5th Feb' 14
"On top gear….."
Result update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
52
65
NA
25%
NA
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
532509
SUPRAJIT
32/62
624
10772
6002
Stock Performance-%
1M
-3
1
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
56
57
YTD
57
51
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
51.8
1.9
1.6
44.7
1 yr Forward P/B
2QFY14 1QFY14
51.8
51.8
1.4
0.9
1.7
1.4
45.1
45.9
Despite adverse market conditions, for the quarter ended December 2013, Suprajit Engineering
registered a good 30% rise in consolidated sales (including other operating income) to Rs
159.53 crore. OPM jumped 260 basis points to 18.8% which lifted OP growth to 50% to Rs
30.02 crore. Other income stood at negative Rs 68 lakh (against Rs 29 lakh) and interest cost
jumped 27% to Rs 3.43 crore. After providing for depreciation (up 14% to Rs 2.26 crore), PBT
jumped 51% to Rs 23.65 crore. Whereas tax grew 62% to Rs 7.50 crore after which PAT grew
47% to Rs 16.1 crore. Aftermarket and non-automotive exports business clocked robust
growths of 35% and 45% respectively. Suprajit Engineering (SEL) continues to deliver robust
margins (at 16-17%) despite weakness in the automotive space. With healthy return ratios (RoE
~30%, RoCE ~25%) and strong balance sheet. We expect a revenue growth for FY14-16E by 15%
on back of strong capacity expansion plan abd growth potential in the business. We modelled
our valuation parameteres, which make us believe that share is trading at lower then fair value
at current market price. We have "Buy" rating on stock with a Target price of Rs. 65.
Capex will see the company having the world's largest cable capacities
The Board of Directors critically assessed the business prospects for the next two years and have
approved the following capex plans considering the business growth in the next two years.
• A new cable plant, measuring 80,000 sf.ft at Narsapura Industrial area, Karnataka, on the land
already in possession.
• A new cable plant measuring 50,000 sq.ft to meet the customer requirements in Chennai at the
recently allotted land at Vallam-Vadagal Industrial Park, Tamilnadu.
• Significant capacity expansion at the existing Pathredi plant, Rajasthan, with an additional plant
measuring 110,000 sq.ft.
• Complete renovation and refurbishing of an existing plant in Bommasandra, Bangalore to
relocate the aftermarket manufacturing facility to meet increased demand.
• Several balancing equipment and buildings in other existing units to fine-tune the capacities to
meet additional customer requirements.
• Additional equipments to add capacity at its 100% owned subsidiary, Suprajit Automotive.
• The capex for the above plans would be approximately Rs. 60 crore.
With these capex plans spread over the next 18-24 months, the company's standalone cable
capacity will exceed 200 mn cables / year and on a consolidated basis will exceed 225 mn cables
year. This would be one of the world's largest cable capacities.
Valuations
At the CMP of Rs.52, the stock P/E ratio is at 11.4x/9.9x/8.5x for FY14-16E respectively. EPS of
the company for the earnings for FY14-15E is seen at Rs. 4.3/5.3/6.2 respectively. Net Sales of
the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%over FY14-16E. We expect that the company
surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the
coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 65 for
medium to long term investment.
Financials
Rs, Crore
3QFY14
2QFY14
(QoQ)-%
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
Revenue
159.5
123.1
29.6
123.1
29.5
EBITDA
30.0
21.0
43.0
20.0
49.9
PAT
16.2
13.9
16.2
10.8
49.1
EBITDA Margin
18.8%
17.1%
170 bps
16.3%
250 bps
PAT Margin
10.2%
11.1%
(90) bps
8.8%
140 bps
(Consolidated)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
6
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8. SWARAJ ENGINES Ltd.
V-
"Accumulate"
4th Feb' 14
" Long term fundamental continue to remains intact…. "
Result update
Accumulate
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
598
648
600
8%
7%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
500407
SWARAJENG
382/535
742
601
6,002
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
(6.6)
(2.3)
1yr
24.3
24.7
YTD
51.4
45.3
2QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.4
37.1
1QFY14
50.6
1.5
10.6
37.3
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
50.6
1.9
10.6
36.9
1 yr Forward P/B
Swaraj Engines posted a moderate revenue growth of 20.8% to Rs. 150.2 crore during Q3FY14
over corresponding period of previous year due to 21.2% growth yoy reported in diesel engines
sales volume. Company sold 18,530 diesel engines during the quarter as compared to 15,288
engines sold during corresponding period of previous year. EBITDA of the company marginally
outpaced by the revenue due to unexpected rise in non operating expenses and stands at Rs.
21.8 crore up by 18.6% yoy. Though company managed to control material cost, which
constitutes ~90% of the total expenses; however, employee cost and administration expenses
reported the growth of 22.1% and 23.9% respectively during the quarter. As a result, EBITDA
and PBT margin reported a marginal deterioration of 24bps and 5bps during Q3FY14 yoy
respectively. PAT reflected in-line numbers and reported the yoy growth of 21.4% to Rs. 16.7
crore before extra ordiniary item of Rs. 1.15 crore; while PAT margin improved by 5bps.
Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd :
Leading supplier to Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd – A key source to growth: SEL enjoys the access to
the India’s largest tractor manufacturer “M&M” (41% market share in Domestic tractor industry),
which has a holding of 33% in SEL. Swaraj Engines Ltd manufactures tractor engines solely for the
“Swaraj Division” of M&M. It caters to ~80% demand of Swaraj division of M&M and rest 20% of
demand is met through Kirloskar Oil Engines, which has a holding of 17% in SEL. The demand
from M&M is estimated to grow further and reach ~85‐90%.
Outlook :
We have modeled a 25% of revenue growth for FY15 yoy respectively, due to SWE’s ability to
maintain growth in product volume and recent enhancement in annual production capacity from
75,000 units to 105,000 units. Company currently operates at TTM EBITDA and net margin of
14.8% and 11.3% respectively, which provides sufficient cushion against operating cost. With
liquidity being moderate and cash flow positive, company has enough cash to finance its
expansion plan of Rs. 38 crore through internal accruals.
Valuations :
At the CMP of INR610, the stock discounts its FY14E EPS of INR53.20 by 10.8x and FY15E EPS of
INR61.2 by 9.8x. Given the strong revenue growth at a CAGR of 21%; PAT growth at CAGR of 26%
post acquisition and stable margins at ~15%, the company is poised to grow further and capable
of ustaining its healthy earnings. Furthermore, despite the capex of INR58crore, the company has
strong cash flows and the company is debt free. Also, Company assurance of 30-60% dividend
payout ratio implies an attractive dividend yield of 4-9%. So taking all this into consideration
share looks reasonable at Rs. 610 as long term fundamental continue to remains intact and one
can expect growth of about maybe 10-13% in next eight-twelve months time. We upgrade our
rating on stock from "Hold" to "accumulate", with a revised price target to Rs 648.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14A
150.2
21.8
15.6
14.5%
10.8%
2QFY14A
151.6
22.7
17.2
14.9%
11.0%
(Standalone)
(Var)-%
-0.9%
-3.8%
-9.5%
(40) bps
(20) bps
3QFY13A
124.6
18.4
13.8
14.8%
10.7%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
21.7%
23.3%
24.9%
(30) bps
10 bps
(Source: Company/Eastwind Research)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
8
10. Kolte-Patil Developers Ltd.
V-
"Buy"
4th Feb' 14
"On track to meet FY14 guidence.........."
Result update
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
74
100
120
35%
0%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532924
KOLTEPATIL
49/115
558
239,587
6,002
Stock Performance-%
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1M
(18.8)
(14.5)
1yr
(36.6)
(36.3)
YTD
(16.3)
(22.4)
2QFY14
74.5
1.4
0.8
23.5
1QFY14
74.5
1.5
0.5
23.5
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14
74.5
1.4
0.4
23.8
1 yr Forward P/B
The company posted de-growth in its revenue and net profit during the third quarter
compared to same period last year. KPD's net revenue for Q3FY14 dipped to Rs 188 crore
against Rs 225 crore in Q3FY13. The company's net profit also decreased to Rs 20.40 crore in
Q3FY14 against Rs 30.52 crore in Q3FY13. However, the company's net revenues for first nine
months for FY14 grew by 15 per cent to Rs 593 crore against Rs 518 crore in 9MFY13.
Interestingly the company's EBITDA soared up by 45 per cent to Rs 181 crore in 9MFY14 on
yearly basis. This has improved its EBITDA margins by 630 basis points on yearly basis. The PAT
stood at Rs 79 crore in 9MFY14 against the PAT during same period in last financial year. Based
on revised volume guidence by management in range of 1.8-2.0mnsft, we cut our FY14/FY15
earnings by 5%/8% while maintaining BUY with a revised TP of Rs 100 (Rs 120 earlier)
New sales booking recorded in Q3FY14 is 0.44 msf of which about 93% is residential and 7%
commercial projects. The sales value was worth Rs 253 crore. The Average price realization (APR)
for the quarter stood at Rs 5730/sft with average price for residential project stood at Rs
5421/sft and that for commercial project at Rs 9932/sft. The ongoing projects as end of Dec 2013
have a saleable area is 14.1 msf (KPDL's share is 9.3 msf) and of which the company already sold
about 7.8 msf with a sale value of Rs 3157.7 crore. Cumulative collection as end of Dec 2013 in
case of ongoing projects is about Rs 2442.7 crore and the collection in Q3FY14 stood at Rs 230
crore. In January 2014 launched 0.2 msf (of total saleable area of 0.9 msf) of Jazz Phase I at
Aundh. Jan 2, 2014 the company obtained final approval and started pre launch activity and
made 34 units as far as 0.6 msf Mirabilis, Horamavu, Bengaluru project. Gross debt excluding
compulsory convertible debentures (CCD) is Rs 205 crore and the net debt is Rs 127 crore. In
Q3FY14 recorded its first sale in Mumbai of 2,200 sft. at an APR of Rs 34375/sft.
Management Guidence
Management is hopeful of achiveing a topline target of Rs. 800-900 crore for FY14E and new area
sales booking of 1.8 - 2 msf for FY2014 with average price realization of Rs 5300/sft.
Valuations
At the CMP of Rs.91, the stock P/E ratio is at 4.6x FY14E and 3.8x FY15E respectively. EPS of the
company for the earnings for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 19.6 and Rs.23.8 respectively. Net
Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 68% and 69% over FY13-15E
respectively. On the basis of Intrest coverage ratio, the stock trades at 7.5x for FY14E and 9.1x for
FY15E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 0.7x and 0.8x respectively for FY14E
and FY15E at current price . We expect that the company surplus scenario is likely to continue for
the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We maintain ‘Buy’ in
this particular scrip with a target price of Rs 120 for medium to long term investment.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
188.1
57.3
20.4
30.4%
15.8%
2QFY14
188.6
60.3
32.2
32.0%
18.3%
(Var)-%
-0.3%
-5.0%
-36.7%
(160) bps
(250) bps
3QFY13
225.4
62.9
30.6
27.9%
16.6%
Rs, Crore
(YoY)-%
-16.5%
-9.0%
-33.2%
252 bps
(80) bps
(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
10
12. Kalpatru Power Transmission
"Buy"
4th Feb' 14
"Missed one……."
Result
Buy
CMP
Target Price
Previous
Target Price
Upside
Change from
Previous
73
95
120
30%
-21%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range
H/L Capital
Mkt
(Rs Crores)
Average Daily
Volume (Nos.)
Nifty
522287
KALPATPOWR
64/105
1201
48500
6002
Stock Performance-%
1M
-18
(13)
Absolute
Rel. to Nifty
1yr
-25
(24)
YTD
-11
(17)
Share Holding Pattern-%
Promoters
FII
DII
Others
3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14
59
59
58
9.7
9.9
10.9
23.2
23.4
23.2
7.6
7.3
7.8
1 yr Forward P/B
Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 18% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 1051.34
crore. The growth was driven by Transmission business, which constitute about 96% of total
sales and was up by 25% YoY to Rs 1007.22 crore. Infrastructure segment comprising of
Railways and Pipeline execution reported a 61% fall in net sales to Rs 28.05 crore largely due to
lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region of the country. Other segment
comprising of Biogas reported a 6% growth in net sales to Rs 16.07 crore. OPM was down by
110 bps to 8.9%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sector business including
higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses in Infrastructure
segment resulted in fall in OPM. The PBIT of Transmission business stood at Rs 89.51 crore
with PBIT margin of about 9%, where as Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 15.23
crore as compared to profit of Rs 5 lakh for Dec'12 quarter. The Other segment PBIT was down
by 11% to Rs 1.80 crore. Thus overall OP was up by 6% to Rs 94.04 crore.
JMC Projects EBITDA margins improve to 5.1%, PAT up 75.6% yoy to Rs.31.4mn:
Standalone PAT grew by 75.1% yoy to Rs.58.3mn upon 8.8% yoy growth in income from
operations to Rs.6651mn, better than our PAT and revenue estimates of Rs.32.1 and Rs.6426mn.
Robust execution of better margin factories and buildings orders and cost optimization
measures,led 40 bps yoy increase in EBITDA margins to5.1%,
Standalone Performance for nine months ended Dec 2013
Kalpataru Power Transmission reported a 26% growth in standalone net sales to Rs 2903.14 crore
for the nine months ended Dec'13 period. The growth was driven by Transmission business,
which constitute about 94% of total sales and was up by 33% YoY to Rs 2720.41 crore.
Infrastructure segment comprising of Railways and Pipeline execution reported a 36% fall in net
sales to Rs 138.48 crore largely due to lower execution and excessive rainfall in Eastern region of
the country. Other segment comprising of Biogas reported a 13% growth in net sales to Rs 44.25
crore.
OPM was down by 30 bps to 9.5%. While there was a better execution of Transmission sector
business including higher execution of export orders having better margins, continued losses in
Infrastructure segment resulted in fall in OPM The PBIT of Transmission business stood at Rs
259.25 crore with PBIT margin of about 9.5%, improvement of 60 bps YoY, where as
Infrastructure business reported loss of about Rs 36.48 crore as compared to profit of Rs 5.45
crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. The Other segment PBIT was stood at Rs 3.49 crore
as compared to Rs 0.47 crore for nine months ended Dec'12 period. Thus overall OP was up by
23% to Rs 277.15 crore.
Other income was up by 10% to Rs 37.80 crore. Interest was up by about 24% to Rs 114.26 crore
and depreciation was up by 35% to Rs 51.33 crore, after which the PBT was up by 16% to Rs
149.36 crore. After providing total tax of Rs 50 crore, up by 25% YoY, standalone PAT for nine
Financials
Rs, Crore
3QFY14
2QFY14
(QoQ)-%
3QFY13
(YoY)-%
Revenue
1051.3
962.2
9.3
889.7
18.2
EBITDA
94.0
91.1
3.2
88.6
6.2
PAT
33.7
31.0
8.7
35.1
-4.1
EBITDA Margin
8.9%
9.5%
(60) bps
10.0%
110 bps
PAT Margin
3.2%
3.2%
0 bps
3.9%
(70) bps
(Standalone)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
12
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
13. Kalpatru Power Transmission.
Concall Highlights:
• PGCIL has changed its model on bidding as PGCIL itself needs to be now competitive for winning
future bids. Competition continues to remain as it is, although everybody has become cautious.
Management expects good orders from PGCIL in Mar'14 quarter, which is the normal trend.
• Infrastructure segment comprising of railways and pipelines continue to report losses due to
lower execution, delays for some projects due to ROW issues and high and extended rainfall in
Eastern region of India, where the company has maximum orders.
• Infrastructure business has an order book of around Rs 420 crore of which 80% are legacy
orders. Management expects legacy orders to end by 2 more quarters after which better margins
and better results within the sector will come in. Railways are not making any money and it's been
very disappointing with not much to bid in and legacy orders hurting the margins.
• About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are private. Q4
will see some more margin improvement due to better execution. Margin improvement of about
50-75 bps will continue in FY'15 for JMC Projects.
• Overall, the management expects to end the year with a 20% net sales growth for FY'14 for KPTL
and about 15% for FY'15. Margins will hover around 10-10.5% for transmission business segment.
• Company has standalone debt of abut Rs 650 crore which it expects to bring down by about Rs
100 crore by end of FY'14. Average interest costs is about 10.5%. Consolidated debt is about Rs
2600 crore.
Healthy order book:
Consolidated order book as end of Dec 2013 was above Rs 12500 crore and of which KPTL's was Rs
7000 crore and that of JMC Project's was Rs 5500 crore. JMC received new order worth Rs 880
crore in Q3 FY'14. About 54% of order book of Transmission business was from international
markets. About 50% of order book is from Government contracts in JMC Projects and rests are
private.
Outlook:
At CMP of Rs.75.6, KPTL tradesat 7.6x FY14 EPS and 5.5x FY15 EPS. To factor in robust revenue
growth, we revise revenue estimates for FY14/FY15 by 5.1%/1.0% respectively. On account of
continued losses and low margin orders in the infrastructure segment we revise standalone
EBIDTA margins as well to 9.7% for FY14 and 10.0% for FY15. Hence, we maintain "Buy"rating
with target price at Rs.95/share.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
13
14. Kalpatru Power Transmission.
Story in graphs :
T&D Revenue (INR) & T&D EBIT (%) (Q-o-Q) :
Standalone, INR in crores
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Revenue (Q-o-Q) :
Standalone, INR in crores
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Margin % (Q-o-Q) :
INR in crores
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Cost % of revenue :
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Cost as a % of sales (Q-o-Q) :
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
14
16. Godrej Consumer Product
"BUY"
4th Feb' 14
" Strategy Shining"
Result update
CMP
Target Price
Previous Target Price
Upside
Change from Previous
BUY
722
960
725
33%
32%
Market Data
BSE Code
NSE Symbol
52wk Range H/L
Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Average Daily Volume
Nifty
532424
GODREJCP
977/672
24573
120012
6002
Stock Performance
1M
Absolute
-13.8
Rel. to Nifty
-10.3
1yr
1.5
1.4
YTD
5.4
0.6
Share Holding Pattern-%
Current 2QFY14 1QFY14
Promoters
63.3
63.3
63.3
FII
28.9
28.7
28.3
DII
1.4
1.2
1.2
Others
6.5
6.8
7.2
1 yr Forward P/B
Almost inline set of numbers;
For 3QFY14, Godrej CP revealed inline set of numbers with 17% sales growth led by
18% domestic and 25% international sales growth, reported growth across all
geographies and segments, respectively. PAT grew by 14% on YoY basis.
Its strong focus on driving growth in the domestic and international market by
expansion of products and distribution reach, we expect strong earning in near
future. With launching new products in domestic as well as international mkt, Godrej
CP will explore organic & inorganic growth. Along with its 3x3 strategy, it has 10x10
strategy also, which refers to 10x growth in 10 yrs.
Margin decline: The Company has been able to maintain its margin more than 15%
mark. EBITDA margin declined 110bps (YoY) to 15.7%, due to rise in A&P cost by 80 bps
to 11.5%. However, there was decline in RM cost by 500 bps to 38.8% of adjusted net
sales.
On Category wise: During the Quarter, Household insecticides grew by +8%, adversely
impacted by abnormal seasonal slowdown. Both the key brands Hit and Good knight
continue to gain share and strengthen market leadership positions across all formats.
Soap sales growth was +6%, volume growth at +4%, ahead of the category growth, but
down in value and volume term. Strong momentum in hair colours was maintained,
delivering sales growth at +37%. Liquid detergents grew 36%.
Geography wise performance: For 3QFY14, Business from India grew by 18% and
contributed 53% of total revenue, Indonesia grew by +18% and contributed 17% of total
revenue, Africa grew by 29% and contributed 15% of total revenue, Latin America grew
by 15% and contributed 8% of total revenue and Europe’s business continued strong
sales performance on both organic and Soft & Gentle (S&G) product portfolio. Business
reported growth of 124%.
Products strategy: The company continues to gain and enjoy market leader ship position
across all three formats. The company is driving increase in penetration with launch of
"Goodknight Advanced colour play".
Recent developments: The Company has entered into an agreement on Oct 7, 2013, to
acquire a 30% stake in Bhabani Blunt Hair Dressing Pvt Ltd, a premier hair salon
company with one of the strongest consumer franchises in this space.
View and Valuations: Its strong 20%+ growth in the domestic household insecticides
business is the key growth driver. We expect strong momentum to continue in its
international business led by Megasari and consolidation of Darling business. Despite
some concerns related to higher leverage, lost domestic focus, macro uncertainties in
Africa and LatAM, and currency risk, we remain confident of achieving the 20%+ sales
growth with strong PAT growth for FY14E & beyond. At a CMP of Rs722, stock trades
at 5.1x FY15E P/BV. We retain BUY with a price target of Rs 960.
Financials
Revenue
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
3QFY14
1982.3
311.1
196
15.7%
9.9%
2QFY14
1961.7
299.8
195
15.3%
9.9%
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(QoQ)-%
1.1%
3.8%
0.5%
210bps
220bps
3QFY13
1695.6
284.9
172.2
16.8%
10.2%
Rs, Cr
(YoY)-%
16.9%
9.2%
13.8%
(30bps)
(10bps)
16
17. Godrej Consumer Product
Sales and its Growth(%)
India branded business grows 17%,
ahead of the market growth across core
categories.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Margin-%
It expects expansion in gross margin,
which will help it to fund new product
launches.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Region-wise EBITDA Margin
Regions
India
Indonesia
Africa
Latin America
Europe
2QFY12
18.9%
19.4%
26.0%
7.4%
11%
3QFY12
20.4%
20.6%
31%
9%
5%
4QFY12
20.2%
20.7%
19.3%
16.3%
10.5%
1QFY13
15.1%
18%
19%
3%
13%
2QFY13
17.6%
19%
16%
4%
9%
3QFY13
18%
20%
20%
8%
5%
4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY142
16.7%
15.8%
18.9%
18.5%
19%
15%
17%
16.0%
7%
13%
14%
18.0%
9%
3%
7%
9.0%
13%
9%
10%
6.0%
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Domestic and Export sales-(% of Sales)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
17
18. Godrej Consumer Product
Key facts from Conference call (attended on 3rd Feb 2014);
(1) The management stated that the company is continue to be aggressive in launching
new innovations that have been well accepted by consumers. They are backing new
launches with strong investments.
(2) More focusing on Innovative pipeline and Brand equity to maintain its market share
across brands,They will launch a new product next week, but they did not tell the
segment name.
(3) Q4 will be better quarter for household segments.
(4)The company will continue investing judiciously for the longer term to improve
position, create competitive advantage and emerge stronger than before.
(5) They are not seeing any major impact on Argentina or Africa revenue, because of
economic uncertainties,
Financials and Valuation
Rs in Cr,
Sales
Other Operating Income
Total income from operations
RM Cost
Purchases of stock-in-trade
WIP
Employee Cost
Ad Spend
Other expenses
Total expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and Amortisation
Other Income
Exceptional Item
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax Exp
PAT
Growth-% (YoY)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Expenses on Sales-%
RM Cost
Ad Spend
Employee Cost
Other expenses
Tax rate
Margin-%
EBITDA
EBIT
PAT
Valuation:
CMP
No of Share
NW
EPS
BVPS
RoE-%
Div- Payout-%
P/BV
P/E
FY10
2041.2
2.5
2043.7
619.59
367.16
-40.45
151.81
132.8
402.98
1633.89
409.81
23.6
44.81
0
386.21
11.1
419.92
80.33
339.59
FY11
3693.6
28.11
3721.71
1458.28
294.12
-45.22
284.51
352.85
695.96
3040.5
681.21
49.92
24.13
41.14
631.29
43.64
652.92
138.21
514.71
FY12
4866.16
45.93
4912.09
2174.67
356.11
-212.26
391.91
449.86
850.47
4010.76
901.33
64.44
6.07
200.17
836.89
65.84
977.29
226.05
751.24
FY13
6390.79
16.58
6407.37
2640.31
451.03
-118.06
590.68
660.35
1196.46
5420.77
986.6
77
67.78
96.12
909.6
77.45
996.05
179.18
816.87
FY14E
7701.26
15.40
7716.66
3028.79
559.46
-23.15
733.08
887.42
1311.8
6497.4
1219.2
92.7
57.9
38.6
1126.5
87.7
1135.3
204.35
930.9
FY15E
9053.82
18.11
9071.93
3719.49
657.71
-90.72
907.19
997.91
1587.6
7779.2
1292.7
100.4
90.7
45.4
1192.3
78.7
1249.7
249.94
999.8
46.3%
95.2%
97.0%
81.0%
66.2%
51.6%
31.7%
32.3%
46.0%
31.3%
9.5%
8.7%
20.5%
23.6%
14.0%
17.6%
6.0%
7.4%
30.3%
6.5%
7.4%
19.7%
19.1%
39.2%
9.5%
7.6%
18.7%
21.2%
44.3%
9.2%
8.0%
17.3%
23.1%
41.2%
10.3%
9.2%
18.7%
18.0%
39.3%
11.5%
9.5%
17.0%
18.0%
41.0%
11.0%
10.0%
17.5%
20.0%
20.1%
18.9%
16.6%
18.3%
17.0%
13.8%
18.3%
17.0%
15.3%
15.4%
14.2%
12.7%
15.8%
14.6%
12.1%
14.3%
13.1%
11.0%
261
30.8
954.7
11.0
31.0
35.6%
30.6%
8.4
23.7
365
32.4
1725.2
15.9
53.2
29.8%
38.3%
6.9
23.0
559
34
2815.2
22.1
82.8
26.7%
22.6%
6.8
25.3
836
34.03
3313.0
24.0
97.4
24.7%
23.0%
8.6
34.8
722.0
34.03
4044.9
27.4
118.9
23.0%
21.4%
6.1
26.4
722.0
34.03
4845.6
29.4
142.4
20.6%
19.9%
5.1
24.6
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
18
19. N arnolia Securities Ltd
402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lord s Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph
033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
em ail: research@narnolia.com ,
w ebsite : w w w .narnolia.com
Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing “East wind” & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
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